1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state of low - level wide - range oscillatory adjustment. Although short - term overseas mill shutdowns boost the futures price and some cultural paper mills' price increase letters in December boost market confidence, the fundamentals have not formed a trend - driving force yet [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,402 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,496 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.74%. The intended trading price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,820 - 6,300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with the Shandong Yinxing offer at 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - Recently, the international wood chip supply has been tight. APRIL and Bracell under the Golden Eagle Group announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the price of bleached hardwood pulp in Asia in December. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, softwood pulp by 7.1%, and hardwood pulp by 1.9%, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market. In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 10.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. As of November 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.51% month - on - month. Downstream base paper prices have made narrow adjustments, and the processing cost pressure remains high [8] 3.2. Industry News - On December 3, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption". The plan aims to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption sectors and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and build high - quality consumer goods. By 2030, a high - quality development pattern of positive interaction between supply and consumption is expected to be basically formed [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][19]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Report Date: December 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index dropped again this week, indicating that the price increase at the end of November and in the first half of December by shipping companies fell short of expectations. Maersk's quotes are aggressive, suppressing the price - raising space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines may follow Maersk to cut prices for cargo. Given the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's hard to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued, and the positive spread opportunity between the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index declined again this week, showing that the price increase implementation at the end of November and in the first half of December by shipping companies was below expectations. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes were more aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price - raising space, and there was a risk of other airlines cutting prices [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Due to the late Spring Festival, it's difficult to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and short - selling has low cost - performance. Attention should be paid to the overvaluation possibility of the April contract and the positive spread opportunity between the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From November 24 to 28, the China export container transportation market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. On November 28, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 0.7% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's November composite PMI was above the boom - bust line, but there was a split between the service and manufacturing sectors. The transportation demand was stable, and the spot market booking price rebounded after continuous declines. On November 28, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports rose 2.7% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was in sync with European routes, and the freight rate rebounded. On November 28, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports rose 8.6% from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US labor market showed mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims rising. The transportation demand was stable, and the freight rates of the US West and East routes showed different trends. On November 28, the freight rate to the US West decreased by 0.8% and that to the US East increased by 1.8% from the previous period [10]. - **Geopolitical News**: There were multiple geopolitical events related to the Israel - Hamas conflict, including cease - fire threats, military operations, and international responses [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Prices - **SCFIS Index**: The SCFIS index for European routes decreased from 1639.37 on November 24 to 1483.65 on December 1, a decline of 9.5%. The SCFIS index for US West routes decreased from 1107.85 to 948.77, a decline of 14.4% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Contract Details**: The report provided trading data for multiple contracts on December 4, including EC2512, EC2602, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6].

能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0313430 ...

Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] Report Date - The report was released on December 5, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3130/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan on a legal weight basis, with actual local prices sometimes lower. The sales basis for the same - quality spot was mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range increased slightly this week [7] - The mainstream basis for Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 41 - grade (excluding light - spotted, double 29, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, and the number of offers for the same - price 31 - grade increased [7] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was weak, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. The trading of medium - and low - count yarns slowed down, and inventories accumulated to some extent, while high - count yarns had good sales with longer order schedules. Overall, the operating rate decreased [7] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric and garment grey fabric market was slow, with sufficient inventory of regular varieties and weak prices. In Nantong, the production of wide - width home textile fabrics continued, and the sales were okay, but the profit was lower than expected. Some factories sold at discounted prices, and the current spot inventory was about one month [7] Overseas and Domestic Market Analysis - Overseas, the inspection volume of US cotton was slower year - on - year, and the output of Brazilian cotton was high. The supply - demand contradiction in the international market was not prominent. Future attention should be paid to interest - rate cuts and the adjustment of the December USDA supply - demand report [8] - In the domestic market, the basis for cotton spot sales was stable to slightly weak this week. After some new cotton in Southern Xinjiang was hedged, there was new low - basis spot in the market, and the quotes for the CF05 contract increased gradually. The downstream demand in the industry remained weak, and the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase slightly. The inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not large for now. With limited changes in the fundamentals, short - term long - position holders took profits and reduced positions for adjustment, but the upward trend of the pressure level remained unchanged [8] Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, 1061 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 20,147,916 bales, equivalent to 4.5483 million tons, an increase of 86,400 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 19,943,562 bales, equivalent to 4.5026 million tons, an increase of 85,000 tons, and the inspection volume in the inland areas was 107,413 bales, equivalent to 23,800 tons [9] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [18][19][20]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月4日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 114.690 | 114.450 | 114.600 | 114.600 | -0.090 | -0.08 | 336 | 6844 | -346 | | TL2603 | 114.460 | 114.450 | 114.370 | 114 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 05, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price of polysilicon main contract: The PS2601 contract closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 175,576 lots, and the open - interest was 116,653 lots, with a net decrease of 11,085 lots [4] - Spot price of polysilicon: The transaction price of n - type re -投料 ranged from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month. The transaction price of n - type granular silicon ranged from 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 50,500 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Fundamental situation: The fundamentals have not improved. The monthly output remains the same as in November. Profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment, but downstream segments are continuously lowering prices due to terminal pressure. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output. The spot price remains stable, meeting the policy requirements. The adjustment of the supply - demand relationship is difficult to be improved by the industry's own drive [4] - Futures price trend: The exchange's position limit sends a stable signal. The net long position of the top 20 decreased by 10,393 lots, and the net short position decreased by 5,181 lots. The upward resistance of the futures price is strong. After rising and then falling, it brings adjustment pressure again. The short - term support is around 55,800 [4] Group 4: Market News - On December 04, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,560 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it and industry enterprises are working together, and the relevant work is progressing steadily. The rumors on the Internet are all false information. The association will fight against malicious acts of short - selling the photovoltaic industry [5] - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimates that the output in November was about 114,900 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The output in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply has entered a stable stage, but the demand has also weakened simultaneously, and the situation of supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the market will mainly operate in a volatile manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,910 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.50%. The trading volume was 152,172 lots, and the open interest was 193,019 lots, a net decrease of 907 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price continued to loosen. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 and Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Outlook**: The supply has entered a stable stage, but the demand has also weakened. The organic silicon enterprises will cut production to support prices starting from December, and the polysilicon is in the season of production reduction. The supply - demand imbalance persists. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the market will mainly operate in a volatile manner with a strong support range of 8,765 - 8,840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 3rd, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE was 7,228 lots, a net increase of 336 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.78% [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxanes was 40,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes was 460,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the Fed's expected rate cuts and the impact of the new Fed Chair nominee. However, factors like the Venezuela situation, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium, which have strong industrial attributes, have shown signs of weakness recently, and investors should be aware of the adjustment risks after their short - term price surges. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the range of $3880 - 4380 per ounce, and it's not advisable to over - chase rises or falls at present. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. - The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, some of the internal adjustment risks have been released. Investors should look for opportunities to go long again based on the resonance of technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The expected Fed rate cuts push up the liquidity premium of precious metals, but the situation in Venezuela, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium have shown signs of weakness. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the $3880 - 4380 per ounce range. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia talks, the Venezuela situation, and the November PMI data of the US and Europe [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The table shows the pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest, and change in open interest of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce. After the decline in gold and silver prices since late October, look for long - entry opportunities based on technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][15]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US discussed the possible ways to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but they failed to reach a compromise on territorial disputes [16]. - US President Trump will announce the nominee for the Fed Chair early next year, further prolonging the selection process [16]. - The eurozone's inflation rate unexpectedly rose in November, which may strengthen the expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates further soon [17].

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Core Viewpoints - Domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid-year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion significantly. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing. The bond market's positive factors are accumulating, but in the short term, it's difficult for the easing to materialize, and it's unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid rise. It's still in the period of oscillatory energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to opportunities for bottom-fishing. In the short term, with important meetings approaching in December, the market may be more cautious about policies. Currently, the loose capital market is the main support for the bond market, but the low expectation of easing implementation limits the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short-term uncertainties, they will not affect the long-term allocation behavior of institutions. The central bank's bond purchases, although with limited net investment, still show a slight increase, and the resumption of operations also sends a signal of easing. In the long term, as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates will continue. Currently, the market's expectation of the central bank's easing operations is returning to rationality, and the risk of further adjustment should be limited [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: After the central bank's bond purchase data for November was released last night, with a net purchase of 50 billion yuan, a slight increase of 30 billion yuan compared to October, market sentiment improved. Most treasury bond futures closed slightly higher, but long-term bonds remained weak. The yields of major interbank interest rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the long-end rising by less than 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.84%, up 0.4bp. The interbank capital market was loose. The central bank had 213.3 billion yuan of funds due in the open market and injected 79.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. The interbank capital sentiment index was stable, and the capital supply was abundant. The weighted overnight rate in the interbank deposit market fluctuated around 1.3%, and the 7-day rate fluctuated around 1.44%. The medium and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained in the range of 1.61% - 1.63% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market's positive factors are accumulating, but in the short term, it's difficult for the easing to materialize, and it's in the period of oscillatory energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to bottom-fishing opportunities. The loose capital market is the main support for the bond market, but the low expectation of easing implementation limits the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. The new regulations on fund sales fees have a short-term impact, and the central bank's bond purchases show a slight increase and a signal of easing. In the long term, as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates will continue. The risk of further adjustment is limited [11][12] 2. Industry News - China's S&P Composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from the previous value of 51.8; the S&P Services PMI was 52.1, down from the previous value of 52.6. The new order index continued to grow since the beginning of 2023, and the new export order performance improved significantly [13] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special symposium on the compilation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing the optimization and adjustment of the state-owned economic layout and the construction of a modern industrial system [13] - On December 2, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection of various central bank tools in November 2025. The net investment in open market treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan, and it was the second consecutive month of treasury bond trading operations [13] - From January to October, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 68.35293 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 3.42144 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [13] - The issuance of local government special bonds has entered a "closing wave" at the end of the year. As of November 30, the scale of newly issued special bonds in November reached approximately 492.192 billion yuan, an increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared to October, with a month-on-month increase of 71% [14] - The working meeting of the Market Interest Rate Pricing Self-regulatory Mechanism was held, discussing and exchanging hot issues in current interest rate pricing and self-regulatory management [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on December 3, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for each contract [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and interbank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (average) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (average) [34]