Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货多晶硅日报-20251209
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:25
Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: December 09, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract dropped significantly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65%. The trading volume was 157,970 lots, and the open interest was 79,367 lots, with a net decrease of 18,624 lots. The net long position of the top 20 decreased by 12,351 lots [4]. - The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 53,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37%. The trading volume was 126,475 lots, and the open interest was 90,283 lots, with a net increase of 13,021 lots. The net short position of the top 20 increased by 9,699 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent operation of polysilicon futures prices can be summarized in two stages. First, on November 12, when the futures price was pricing in pessimistic expectations, the policy side issued concentrated statements to maintain price stability. After a rapid short - term decline close to the bottom of the range, it began to quickly reduce positions and rebound in line with the policy statements. Second, after the futures price continued to rebound, market funds once again engaged in a short - squeeze game due to the shortage of deliverable goods, and the futures price rose again to the upper limit of the range [5]. - Starting last week, the exchange first restricted positions to curb capital behavior and then expanded the deliverable brands to dispel the shortage expectation. The price trend is due to the same reasons. In summary, the recent operation of futures prices is not dominated by fundamentals. The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased. The production in December is expected to be flat compared with the previous month, but the weak terminal demand is gradually spreading upstream in the industrial chain. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output, and the market has not yet entered the active de - stocking stage [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have continued to weaken recently. The industrial chain profits are concentrated in the silicon material end. It is difficult to pass on further price increases of silicon materials. Currently, the policy side emphasizes stability, and the fundamentals provide limited upward driving force. The spot price is stuck at around 53,200 yuan/ton. After the futures price adjusts back to the spot price range, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern. A more definite signal is needed to break through the range, and chasing up and killing down should be avoided within the range [5]. Group 4: Market News - On December 08, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,810 lots, an increase of 490 lots from the previous trading day [6]. - In the first week of December, the weekly polysilicon production was 26,470 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.43% [6]. - In the first week of December, the weekly polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.82% [6]. - According to relevant regulations of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Oriental Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Oriental Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [6][7]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251209
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:25
聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1:期货市场行情 | ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20251209
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:25
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract details**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3043, the highest price was 3055, the lowest price was 3025, the closing price was 3030, with a decline of 5 and a decline rate of -0.16%. The trading volume was 609,632, the open interest was 840,915, and the open interest change was -78,817. For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3010, the opening price was 3011, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2971, the closing price was 2978, with a decline of 32 and a decline rate of -1.06%. The trading volume was 166,459, the open interest was 553,792, and the open interest change was -8,090. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2828, the opening price was 2821, the highest price was 2826, the lowest price was 2770, the closing price was 2778, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.77%. The trading volume was 1,089,811, the open interest was 1,890,767, and the open interest change was 107,247 [6] - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract falling below 1100 cents. The main reasons were the US concerns about China's procurement progress. Although there was a large - order purchase of 460,000 tons over the weekend, it was reported that the previous claim of China's full - scale purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January might be postponed to February. Meanwhile, February is the season when Brazilian soybeans start to be exported, leading to a negative market sentiment. Additionally, there were no positive factors in the new South American crops. Brazil had basically completed most of its sowing, and above - average rainfall was expected in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, which was conducive to a high - yield expectation. Argentina was a bit dry, but it was still in the middle - late sowing stage and not yet in the critical weather - growth stage, exerting some downward pressure on the market [7] - **Domestic situation**: Domestic soybean meal followed the weak trend of CBOT soybeans but with a smaller decline. Due to the previously low overall crushing profit and the difficulty of significant cost reduction in the external market while China was still purchasing, the support below the soybean meal price was relatively strong. However, there was still inventory pressure, and additional positive factors such as weather or procurement were needed for the price to rise. The state reserve began to auction imported soybeans, and it was expected that the newly purchased US soybeans would be used for inventory rotation, so the sufficient supply situation would continue [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the price will be slightly weak but is unlikely to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA's December supply - demand report on the market [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA monthly report forecast**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the December crop supply - demand report at 1:00 on December 10, Beijing time. Analysts' average forecast shows that the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 302 million bushels, higher than the 290 million bushels estimated in the November 14 report. The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 122.41 million tons, higher than the 121.99 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.857 million tons, higher than the 4.85 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 175.35 million tons, higher than the 175 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. The USDA predicts that farmers will plant 95 million acres of corn in the 2026/27 season, less than the 98.7 million acres in the 2025/26 season. The soybean planting area is expected to increase from 81.1 million acres to 85 million acres. The USDA forecasts that the US 2026/27 corn ending stocks will be 2.019 billion bushels and the soybean ending stocks will be 314 million bushels [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][16]
建信期货油脂日报-20251209
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:25
研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1:行情回顾 | 6 87 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 : | | | 最高价:最低价:收盘价:涨跌 深跌幅 | | | | 成交量:持企量 持企量变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
建信期货钢材日评-20251208
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 03:11
021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 8 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | 表1:12月5日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、%、手、亿元) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3175 | ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251208
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:27
Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 08, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polysilicon contract dropped significantly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96%. The trading volume was 159,380 lots, and the open interest was 97,991 lots, with a net decrease of 18,662 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future outlook: The fundamentals have not improved. The production in December is expected to remain flat compared to the previous month. Profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment, but downstream segments are continuously lowering prices due to terminal pressure. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output. Spot prices remain stable, meeting the policy requirements for stability. The adjustment of the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve through the industry's own driving force. Under the requirements of the exchange, the 01 contract continues to reduce positions, the short squeeze narrative cools down, and the futures price may run weakly and return to fluctuate around the spot price [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 05, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,560 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and relevant work is progressing steadily. Rumors on the Internet are false information. The association firmly safeguards national and industry interests and will fight against malicious short - selling of the photovoltaic industry [5] - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimated that the production in November was about 114,900 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October, and the production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]
建信期货生猪日报-20251208
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:20
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 每日报告 二、行业要闻 图1:养殖利润 元/头 图 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251208
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price remained stable. The market focus has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the weakening demand. The industrial silicon industry lacks anti - involution policy expectations, and the futures market shows a bearish structure. Attention should be paid to the 8765 - 8840 range as a reference for long - short conversion [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.12%. The trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots, with a net increase of 3,924 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The 553 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the 553 (oxygen - passed) grade in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton. The 421 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,950 yuan/ton, 9,600 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, and 9,600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [4]. - **Outlook**: Production cuts in the southwest have approached the seasonal low, while the operation in the northwest is basically stable, with a monthly output expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weakening. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a 3% week - on - week decrease, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 5, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,288 lots, a net increase of 60 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease and a 30.78% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary silicone polyoxane was 40,600 tons, a 13.49% month - on - month decrease and a 5.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 460,500 tons, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [5].
建信期货生猪日报-20251205
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:26
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 05, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows both supply and demand increasing, but the enthusiasm of second - fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see mode, so prices are likely to fluctuate [7] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release may create double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting downward pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is likely to be weakly fluctuating, but as the price decline compared to the same period last year is large, the frequency of bottom - end fluctuations may increase [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the red. The highest was 11,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,190 yuan/ton, a 0.44% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,206 lots to 374,770 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the national average price of三元hogs was 11.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In October, second - fattening and weight - holding were concentrated, and the current utilization rate of second - fattening pens is high, reaching last year's level, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. Currently, farmers are slaughtering according to the normal rhythm [7] - **Demand Side**: The pen utilization rate is high, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan. In addition, fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have improved, terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in slaughter orders has significantly supported the slaughter volume. On December 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 177,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day, 3,000 heads week - on - week, and 19,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the content 3. Data Overview - **Actual and Planned Slaughter**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [12] - **Breeding Profit**: As of the week of December 4th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/head [12] - **Fattening Cost**: As of the week of December 4th, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [12] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of December 4th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of individual farmers was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [12]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251205
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:26
油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 每日报告 ...