Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货纸浆日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:58
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term suspension of overseas pulp mills boosts the futures price. The main contract is mainly a game between new and old warehouse receipts. The fundamentals have not formed a trend - setting force, and the pulp market is still expected to fluctuate within a wide range at a low level [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,272 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.53%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - In November, Arauco's FOB prices for wood pulp were: softwood pulp Silver Star at $680/ton (unchanged from last month), natural pulp Venus at $620/ton (up $30/ton from last month), and hardwood pulp Star at $550/ton (up $10/ton from last month). In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.1% and hardwood pulp down 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 10.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. As of November 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.51% month - on - month. The downstream paper prices adjusted slightly, and the processing cost pressure remained high. Some cultural paper mills issued price increase letters for December, boosting market confidence [8] 2. Industry News - On December 3, several ministries and commissions jointly issued the Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption. The plan aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots by 2027, and establish a high - quality development pattern of positive interaction between supply and consumption by 2030 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to pulp market data, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19]
建信期货油脂日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:58
Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan, supported by the cost of imported soybeans but with limited upside due to high inventory [8]. - For rapeseed oil, there is no new policy change. The far - month basis is weak, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. Since Australian rapeseed will arrive in December with a relatively small overall import volume, a long position can be taken on a single contract [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Bad weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, along with lower - than - expected production growth in November and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December, may support the market in the short term. However, inventory in the producing areas is likely to continue to accumulate in November, so it should be regarded as range - bound with a resistance level around 9,000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: In December, it is OI2601 + 280; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 260. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From December to January, it is OI2601 + 360. - East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: Spot is Y2501 + 260; from December to January, it is Y2601 + 270; from January to March, it is 05 + 430; from March to May, it is 05 + 350; from April to May, it is 05 + 310; from May to July, it is 05 + 230; from February to May, it is 05 + 370. - Palm oil quotes from Dongguan traders are stable with a downward trend. For example, Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 80; Dongguan COFCO's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 70; 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 30; Guangdong's national standard 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 10; 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 200; 33 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 + 20 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread for rapeseed oil and consider long positions for single contracts, and expect range - bound trading for soybean oil and palm oil [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 779,392 tons, a 39.2% decrease from October. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an 89,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [9]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton decrease from October [9]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and some spread data and exchange rate data [13][14][21]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:57
1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index declined again this week, indicating that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December was also below expectations. Maersk's aggressive pricing strategy may suppress the price - raising space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines will cut prices to attract cargo following Maersk. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive - based competition for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's hard to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - effectiveness of shorting is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index declined again this week. Shipping companies' price increases in the first half of December were below expectations. Maersk's quotes were the most aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price - raising space. There is a possibility of other airlines following Maersk to cut prices. The market may have incentive - based competition for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It's difficult to determine the over - valuation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and the short - selling cost - effectiveness is low. Attention should be paid to the over - valuation possibility of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 4.2行业要闻 - **Overall Market**: From November 24 to 28, the China Export Container Shipping Market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index increased slightly. The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index on November 28 was 1403.13 points, a 0.7% increase from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4. The service industry PMI was 53.1, the best in a year and a half, while the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, lower than expected. Transport demand was stable, and spot market booking prices rebounded after continuous declines. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on November 28 was $1404/TEU, a 2.7% increase from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market trend was in sync with European routes, and market freight rates stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on November 28 was $2232/TEU, an 8.6% increase from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, but the number of continued claims was rising. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates showed a differentiated trend. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on November 28 were $1632/FEU and $2428/FEU respectively, with a - 0.8% and 1.8% change from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Maersk's statement on resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was inconsistent. There were developments in the Israeli - Palestinian issue, including Netanyahu's pardon application, Hamas's threat to end the cease - fire, and military operations by the Israeli Defense Forces [10]. 4.3数据概览 4.3.1集运现货价格 - **European Routes**: The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, a - 9.5% decrease from November 24 [12]. - **US West Routes**: The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) on December 1, 2025, was 948.77 points, a - 14.4% decrease from November 24 [12]. 4.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 - The report shows the trading data of container shipping European line futures contracts on December 3, 2025, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc [6]. 4.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report provides multiple charts related to shipping data, including European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:57
1. Report Information - Report date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The national egg price remained stable today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.07 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 2.40%. In the near term, egg futures have fluctuated significantly due to sentiment. Recently, funds have quickly withdrawn, and the 01 contract has declined weakly. Looking at the fundamentals, there will be an increase in demand during the double festivals in December, and the 01 contract is in the peak season for Spring Festival stockpiling this year, so the downward space is limited. However, spot pressure restricts the upside of futures. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support level of 3100 below. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall, and you can continuously pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the callback of the peak season contract next year. The spread between near and far months may continue to widen. [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: The 2601 contract of eggs had a previous settlement price of 3215, an opening price of 3195, a high of 3200, a low of 3134, a closing price of 3138, a decline of 77, a decline rate of -2.40%, a trading volume of 249,638, an open interest of 168,548, and an open interest change of 137,097. The 2602 contract had a previous settlement price of 3063, an opening price of 3046, a high of 3059, a low of 3007, a closing price of 3018, a decline of 45, a decline rate of -1.47%, a trading volume of 88,606, an open interest of 136,748, and an open interest change of 4,487. The 2603 contract had a previous settlement price of 3126, an opening price of 3110, a high of 3149, a low of 3083, a closing price of 3100, a decline of 26, a decline rate of -0.83%, a trading volume of 114,340, an open interest of 135,708, and an open interest change of 3,655. [7] - Operation suggestions: Based on the fact that the spot price has not changed significantly, do not chase the rise or kill the fall. Continuously pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the callback of the peak season contract next year, as the spread between near and far months may continue to widen. [8] 4.2 Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year-on-year increase of 5.59% compared to the end of October 2024. [9] - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025, and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. From July to October 2025, the total replenishment was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year. [9] - Culling volume: As of November 20, 2025, the culling volume of chickens in the previous three weeks was 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. Recently, the culling volume has fluctuated but has increased slightly overall compared to the previous period. [9] - Culling age: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of chickens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an acceleration of the culling speed. [10] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of eggs in December, the basis of the egg 12 contract, the spread between the egg 12 - 02 contracts, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, and the profit of laying hen farming, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][12][19]
建信期货棉花日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:56
Industry Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: December 4, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a state of volatile adjustment. The latest price index for grade 328 cotton is 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market for pure cotton yarn is weak, with overall开机 decreasing. The market for cotton grey cloth is slow, and prices are weak. [7] - Overseas, as of the week ending October 21, the net long position ratio of CFTC non - commercial positions in US cotton futures was - 21.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous period but down 19 percentage points year - on - year. The market has rebounded recently due to the easing of Sino - US relations and will follow the domestic market in the short term. [8] - In the domestic market, although the output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly, the hedging pressure is not concentrated. The downstream industry demand is tepid, and the inventory of textile enterprises has increased slightly. The fundamentals have limited changes, and short - term profit - taking and position - reducing may lead to a correction, while the upward trend of the pressure level remains unchanged. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The quoted price for machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season is around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan/ton (public weight), and the actual price in some areas is lower. The sales basis of spot cotton has increased slightly this week. [7] - **Domestic Cotton Yarn and Grey Cloth Market**: The pure cotton yarn market has weak trading, mainly for rigid - demand purchases. The sales of medium - and low - count yarns have slowed down, while high - count yarns are doing well. The overall开机 of the industry has decreased. The market for cotton grey cloth is slow, with sufficient inventory of regular varieties, and prices are weak. [7] - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending October 21, the non - commercial long position of CFTC US cotton futures was 72,047 (- 1,181) contracts, the short position was 134,658 (- 4,202) contracts, and the total ICE position was 287,348 (- 6,839) contracts. The net long position ratio was - 21.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous period. [8] 2. Industry News - As of December 2, 2025, a total of 1,059 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed and applied for notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025 cotton season. The cumulative inspection volume is 4.462 million tons, an increase of 80,200 tons from the previous day. Among them, Xinjiang's inspection volume is 4.4175 million tons, an increase of 78,700 tons, and the inland inspection volume is 23,000 tons. [9] 3. Data Overview - Multiple charts present data on China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipts, and exchange rates. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [18][19][21]
建信期货生猪日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:56
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 04, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see state, so the price is mainly volatile. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the relatively concentrated secondary fattening and pressure on pigs in October, combined with continuous capacity release, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting continued pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is mainly weak and volatile, but since the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, the frequency of bottom - range volatility may increase [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 3rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down in the end. The highest was 11,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,235 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,152 lots to 371,564 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 3rd, the average price of ternary live pigs in the country was 11.28 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on pigs were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the slaughter at the beginning of the month has slowed down [9] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pens is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan, and the fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have also improved. The terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 176,700 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 2,800 heads compared with the previous week, and 17,800 heads compared with the previous month [9] 4.2 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head [19] - **Cost**: As of the week ending November 21, the cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [19] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg compared with the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [19]
建信期货工业硅日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:55
Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 04, 2025 [2] - Report type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report [1] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%. The trading volume was 145,999 lots, and the open interest was 193,926 lots, with a net increase of 6,584 lots [4] - Spot prices have loosened recently. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Spot price fluctuations are within 100 yuan/ton, providing limited guidance to the futures market. The production reduction in the southwest region is approaching the seasonal low, while the northern region maintains high - level production. The output has entered a stable stage, but the demand has weakened simultaneously. Silicone enterprises will reduce production to support prices starting from December, and polysilicon is in the season of production reduction. The supply - demand imbalance remains unresolved [4] - Futures warehouse receipts are concentrated for cancellation, and the futures price is at a discount. There is support around 8,800 yuan/ton in the short term, with limited downward space, and the market will generally move in a range - bound manner (net long positions increased by 5,596 lots, and net short positions increased by 547 lots) [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,892 lots, a net increase of 108 lots compared to the previous trading day [4] - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.78% [4] - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxanes (organic silicon) was 40,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes was 460,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [4]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251203
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 02:08
行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 3 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22640 | 22700 | 22720 | 22605 | 195 | 0.87 | 9660 | -1265 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 2 ...
建信期货钢材日评-20251203
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 02:06
Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: December 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On December 2, most rebar spot markets and a few hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price increases. Rebar prices in Shanghai, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Changsha, Nanning, and Chengdu rose by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, while those in Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Wuxi, Hefei, Wuhan, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Chongqing, Kunming, Guiyang, and Lanzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Fuzhou, Jinan, Nanchang, and Nanning went up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J value slightly falling back and the K and D values continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract expanded for three consecutive trading days, and that of the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract for two consecutive trading days [8]. 1.2 Future Outlook - News: With high-level dialogues between China and the US, and the US and Japan, geopolitical risks have eased, investors' risk appetite has significantly recovered, and the prices of risk assets have been restored. The prices of steel and ore, which were previously resilient, have strengthened. The main January contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore reached new highs since September 29, October 31, and October 31 respectively. Coke and coking coal futures also rebounded significantly in the past two days [9]. - Fundamentals: In the week of November 28, the demand for the five major steel products declined slightly compared to the previous week but remained at the level of late October. Although production has rebounded slightly in the past two weeks, the inventory continued to decline rapidly, further alleviating supply pressure [9]. - Raw Materials: The first round of spot price cuts for coke was implemented. The prices of major primary coking coal in the spot market decreased by 50 - 140 yuan/ton in the past week. After the spot prices of coal and coke followed the futures prices down, the risk release of coal and coke futures brought a certain degree of confidence recovery. The concern about increased supply in the iron ore market eased. With coking coal and coke giving profits to steel mills, the price support for iron ore was relatively strong, driving up the cost of steel [9]. - Overall: The steel futures market is expected to consolidate with an upward bias due to the warming macro - environment and favorable fundamental factors. Attention should be paid to the pace of the warming macro - environment and the resonance differences between various commodity market sectors and the stock market [9]. 2. Industry News - Environmental Protection Inspection: The third round and fifth batch of the central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Tianjin had serious problems in volatile organic compound treatment and vehicle inspections, with sub - standard air quality and many enterprises found to be illegally discharging pollutants. Tangshan, Hebei, was criticized for illegally launching steel projects and increasing production capacity, with obvious shortcomings in air pollution prevention and control [10]. - Steel Consumption and Production: Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's apparent steel consumption has declined for four consecutive years, and steel production has generally shown a downward trend. The domestic apparent consumption decreased from a peak of 1.04 billion tons in 2020 to 890 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 150 million tons, with an average annual decline of 3.8%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the domestic apparent consumption was 649 million tons, a decrease of 5.7%, with the decline further intensifying [10]. - Iron Ore Development: On November 28, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association held a symposium on domestic iron ore resource development. Relevant officials from national ministries and commissions introduced the work at the ministry level, interpreted the newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" implemented on July 1, 2025, and briefly answered relevant questions. They stated that China has a high dependence on imported iron ore and large potential for increasing iron ore reserves and production, and efforts should be made to increase the conversion from exploration to mining to improve the domestic production capacity of iron ore [10]. - Corporate Repurchase: Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. announced a share repurchase plan from May 22, 2025, to May 21, 2026, with an expected repurchase of 100 - 200 million yuan worth of shares for reducing the registered capital. In November 2025, the company repurchased 7.0732 million shares, accounting for 0.016% of the total share capital, and paid 18.000483 million yuan. As of November 30, the cumulative repurchase was 29.3387 million shares, accounting for 0.065% of the total share capital, with a cumulative payment of 70.000827 million yuan and a repurchase price ranging from 1.79 - 2.72 yuan/share [11]. - Mining Project: Pangang Group Mining Co., Ltd. recently launched the project of green and intelligent mining of vanadium - titanium magnetite in Zhulan Iron Mine, aiming to start the project officially by the end of June 2027. The project plans a total investment of about 5 billion yuan. After completion, the Zhulan Iron Mine will shift from open - pit to underground mining, ensuring effective capacity connection and extending the mine's service life by more than 40 years. The underground mining scale for deep resources is 15 - 20 million tons/year, using the stage open - stoping and full - tailings backfill mining method to minimize solid waste generation [11]. - Stock Repurchase: On December 1, Yongtai Energy announced a plan to repurchase a portion of its issued A - share common stocks using its own funds and self - raised funds for cancellation to reduce the company's registered capital. The proposed repurchase amount is not less than 300 million yuan and not more than 500 million yuan, with a repurchase price not exceeding 2.50 yuan/share. The repurchase period is within 12 months after the shareholders' meeting's approval, and it will be implemented through centralized bidding transactions. The company also disclosed that its directors, supervisors, senior management, controlling shareholders, actual controllers, and shareholders with more than 5% of the shares have no plans to reduce their holdings in the next six months [11]. - Coal Resources: As of now, Anhui Province holds coal resource reserves of over 7.6 billion tons in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions, with an approved (designed) annual coal production capacity of over 70 million tons, ensuring the province's energy security while achieving long - term corporate development [11]. - Coal Contracts: The 2026 coal - steel - coke long - term contract negotiation meeting of the China Coking Coal Brand Cluster was successfully concluded. Shanxi Coking Coal signed contracts with 28 customer units, including 25 long - term agreement customers, 2 key customers, and 1 internal customer, achieving the goals of the meeting. The signing and performance work of Shanxi's 2026 coal long - term contracts has officially started. All coal long - term contracts for power supply and those in metallurgy, chemical, building materials and other industries will be uniformly operated online, marking a new stage in the standardized management of coal trading in Shanxi. The power coal supply contracts use the national unified contract model text and are signed following a standardized process. The signing process for non - power industries such as metallurgy, chemical, and building materials will be appropriately simplified. All contract signing work must be completed by December 13, 2025 [11][12]. - Coal Transportation: As of now, the China Railway Urumqi Bureau Group Co., Ltd. has cumulatively completed 85.1801 million tons of coal transportation from Xinjiang this year, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From December 1, 2025, Russia increased railway freight rates by 10%, including coal transportation on all routes [12]. - Coal Production and Sales: In November 2025, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) produced 68 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 1.19% and a month - on - month increase of 20.57%. Coal sales were 62.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% and a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [12]. - Coal Price: On December 1, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the reference prices for Indonesian thermal coal for the first half of December 2025, with most prices higher than those in the second half of November. The reference price for HBA (high - grade 6322 kcal) thermal coal was 98.26 US dollars/ton, HBA I (high - grade 5300 kcal) was 67.99 US dollars/ton, HBA II (high - grade 4100 kcal) was 44.37 US dollars/ton, and HBA III (high - grade 3400 kcal) was 34.15 US dollars/ton [12]. - Trade Investigations: On December 1, the US Department of Commerce announced a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on non - oriented electrical steel imported from China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, and Taiwan (China), and a second counter -vailing sunset review investigation on non - oriented electrical steel imported from China and Taiwan (China). The US International Trade Commission (USITC) also launched a second anti - dumping and counter -vailing sunset review industrial injury investigation. Interested parties should register for应诉 with the US Department of Commerce within 10 days of the announcement, submit responses to the USITC by December 31, 2025, and submit comments on the sufficiency of the responses to the USITC by February 6, 2026 at the latest. On the same day, the US Department of Commerce announced a first anti - dumping sunset review investigation on forged steel fittings imported from India and South Korea, and a first counter -vailing sunset review investigation on forged steel fittings imported from India. The US ITC launched a first anti - dumping and counter -vailing sunset review industrial injury investigation. Interested parties should register for应诉 with the US Department of Commerce within 10 days of the announcement, submit responses to the USITC by December 31, 2025, and submit comments on the sufficiency of the responses to the USITC by February 10, 2026 at the latest [12][13] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the social inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventories of the five major steel products, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average molten iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar/hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts [15][16][23]
建信期货沥青日报-20251203
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 01:54
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 3, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The oil price lacks support, asphalt supply and demand are weak, the spot price has corrected again, and the short - term market is cautious, with a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3027 yuan/ton, closing at 3007 yuan/ton, with a high of 3040 yuan/ton, a low of 3003 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%, and a trading volume of 22.29 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3020 yuan/ton, closing at 3012 yuan/ton, with a high of 3033 yuan/ton, a low of 3004 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 8.05 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Today, asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, East China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased, while those in other regions were generally stable [6] - **Supply**: Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to continue producing asphalt after a brief resumption. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly [6] - **Demand**: Cold air has affected most parts of China again. Road demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to be stable [6] Group 5: Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. After the asphalt futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton and continued to decline, the low - price in the Shandong asphalt market dropped below 2900 yuan/ton, widening the price difference with East China. Both the futures and Shandong supply pressured the East China spot price. Today, the ex - factory price of some agents at Jinling was adjusted down to 3300 yuan/ton, driving the market price down [7] - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2880 - 3470 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Although international oil prices rebounded, the asphalt futures trend was weak, continuously affecting the spot market sentiment. In addition, snow and rain in some parts of Shandong today restricted demand release, and local refineries and traders continued to lower their quotes, driving the Shandong market price down [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]