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建信期货MEG日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:29
Report Overview - Report Title: MEG Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 - Industry: Energy and Chemicals [1][2] Core View - Due to insufficient bullish support at the fundamental and macro levels of ethylene glycol, market participants are mostly cautious and waiting. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3891 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 3979 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The trading volume of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on the 12th was 192,653 lots, and the open interest was 366,485 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil Price: International oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, but the increase was limited due to concerns about oversupply. On November 11th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 was $61.04 per barrel, up $0.91 or 1.51%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 was $65.16 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.72% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 3956 - 3958 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The basis of this week's spot, next week's spot, and November's spot were all at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [8] - Polyester Market: The sales of polyester filament were sluggish, the raw material market weakened, the polyester appropriately gave back the price difference, and downstream purchases were few [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16]
建信期货原油日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:29
Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly. OPEC+ has decided to temporarily halt production increases in Q1 2026, which is marginally positive for the supply side. However, the inventory build - up rate in Q1 2026 may reach 3 million barrels per day, and the current policy alone is difficult to reverse the oversupply. Mid - term oil prices still face continuous oversupply pressure, and short - selling is recommended in operations [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $59.94, closed at $60.99, with a high of $61.18, a low of $59.59, a daily increase of 1.60%, and a trading volume of 16.75 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $63.94, closed at $65.09, with a high of $65.31, a low of $63.60, a daily increase of 1.61%, and a trading volume of 30.98 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 470.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 462.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 470.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 461.7 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.52%, and a trading volume of 7.78 million lots. India has started tendering for crude oil purchases in early 2026, retaining Russian oil but requiring that the producers and terminals of the goods are not under sanctions. Lukoil's overseas assets are continuously affected by US sanctions, and the West Qurna - 2 oil field project has suffered force majeure and may withdraw from operation later [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the continuous oversupply pressure on mid - term oil prices, short - selling is considered [7]. 2. Industry News - Indian Oil Corporation's tenders for early 2026 include Russian ESPO Blend and Sokol crude oil, and it also welcomes quotes for low - sulfur crude from regions such as West Africa and the US. - Despite new sanctions, Russia's oil exports in November have remained stable. - Commerzbank expects Brent crude to trade at $60 per barrel and WTI at $57 per barrel in 2026. - The IEA believes that under the current policy scenario, oil demand will not peak before 2050 [8]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. Data sources include Bloomberg, EIA, Wind, and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [9][11][12]
建信期货生猪日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:28
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On the 12th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 11,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,720 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,615 lots to 359,930 lots [6]. Spot Market - On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.75 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Market Analysis - Supply side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared with the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average was flat. Currently, farmers are slaughtering at a normal pace [7]. - Demand side: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather continues to cool, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. Mid - to - late November may see a slight increase in bacon curing and sausage making. On November 12th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,100 heads, an increase of 17,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 5,000 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, supply is stable and demand increases slightly, but with second - fattening in a wait - and - see state, the support for prices is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October, along with farmers' reluctance to sell and the continuous release of production capacity, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the previous year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening 110 - kg pigs to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening 125 - kg pigs to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].
建信期货沥青日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:28
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market sentiment of asphalt remains cautious due to weak rigid demand The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term as oil prices lack support and asphalt's supply - demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed after the recent decline [6][7] Group 4: Market Analysis 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3055 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3076 yuan/ton, a low of 3047 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 18.37 million lots BU2512 opened at 3069 yuan/ton, closed at 3063 yuan/ton, with a high of 3081 yuan/ton, a low of 3050 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 0.86 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Prices in Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions declined, while prices in Shandong rebounded slightly, and other regions remained stable The overall rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [6] - Supply: Some refineries have production changes, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rise slightly [7] - Demand: Demand shows regional differentiation Northeast and Northwest regions have reached the annual low in rigid demand, North China and Shandong maintain stable demand, and South China's demand is expected to be stable [7] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 2980 - 3620 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day The rebound of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosts the market, and the price increase may release downstream demand [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3150 - 3320 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day The new contract price of PetroChina's asphalt is undetermined, and the market is cautious The price decline is due to the reduction of contract quotes from Jingbo Hainan's warehouse [8] 3. Data Overview - Data includes South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:27
Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of polyolefins are expected to remain under pressure. There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the capacity expansion pressure and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak, with the seasonal peak of agricultural film production passing, the demand for pipes increasing first and then decreasing, and the downstream's willingness to stock up being low due to fear of price drops [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The L2601 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6,788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 186,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2,586 lots to 586,919 lots. The PP2601 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan (-0.11%), with a decrease in positions by 4,959 lots to 636,600 lots. The futures market opened low and fluctuated, the market trading atmosphere changed little, traders mostly offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly made small - order purchases [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the device operating load and the pressure of new capacity expansion, which intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak. The agricultural film production has reached a seasonal peak and is declining, the demand for pipes increases first and then decreases, the plastic weaving of PP is boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises mainly digest inventory. The downstream's low willingness to stock up due to fear of price drops further drags down the transaction price [6] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 680,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **PE Market Price**: The prices of LLDPE in some areas decreased. The price range in North China was 6,760 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,050 - 7,450 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5,750 - 5,780 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The market was in a supply - demand game, downstream factories mostly waited and watched for rigid demand, producers had a certain intention to stabilize the market, and individual offers had narrow discounts. The overall trading atmosphere was average [7] - **PP Market Price**: Most prices in the PP market fluctuated slightly, and some prices weakened. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6,230 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,320 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP price difference, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [9][13][17]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:27
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current egg market may enter a phase of correction, with red eggs showing stable supply and demand The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the re - entry of short - sellers after the end of the price increase phase The decline is expected to be limited, with support above the previous low In the long - term, the decline may accelerate culling and keep the replenishment rate low, presenting long - position opportunities in the more distant months, but in the short - term, the market will likely oscillate at the bottom with near - month contracts being weaker [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The egg 2601 contract closed at 3322, down 65 or 1.92%; the 2602 contract closed at 3069, down 31 or 1.00%; the 2512 contract closed at 3063, down 103 or 3.25% The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.31 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, treat the market as bottom - oscillating with near - month contracts being weaker In the long - term, gradually pay attention to long - position opportunities in more distant months [8] 3.2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared to October 2024 [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly down from 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly down from 44.83 million in the same period in 2024 The cumulative replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared to about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024 [9] - **Culling Volume**: As of November 6, 2025, the national culling volume in the previous three weeks was 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a fluctuating trend [9] - **Culling Age**: As of November 6, 2025, the average culling age was 493 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month, indicating an accelerated culling process [14] 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profit, egg prices in the main production areas, seasonal trends of egg 12 contracts, basis of egg 12 contracts, and the spread between egg 12 - 02 contracts [13][10][11]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:27
1. Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Freight Index for Container Shipping to Europe [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS index rose 24.5% week-on-week to 1504.8, better than expected. Although the actual demand may not support a large increase in freight rates, the market is likely to form a bottoming-out and recovery trend, and the bottom of freight rates within the year may have appeared. However, with the December contract in a premium state, the market is starting to consider the potential for rate increases and the likelihood of them materializing. The February contract incorporates strong expectations of a pre - Spring Festival shipping rush, which drives up the prices of far - month contracts. It is recommended to consider shorting the off - season April contract [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS index rose 24.5% week - on - week to 1504.8 this week. The price increase in the first half of November was well - implemented, but the attempt to raise prices in the second half fell short. Shipping companies have lowered their quoted price increases for November and December. For example, the Premier Alliance aggressively reduced the first - half November quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route to $1806 - 1935 per forty - foot equivalent unit (FEU), and maintained the second - half quote at $2535 per FEU. The OCEAN Alliance also slightly lowered the first - half November quote to $2150 - 2520 per FEU, and most maintained the second - half quote at $2800 - 3000, except for CMA CGM, whose quote for the second half of November to the first half of December was $3170 - 3920, but lower than the previous quote. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting the off - season April contract [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From November 3 to November 7, the overall China export container shipping market was stable, with freight rates on different routes diverging due to supply - demand fundamentals. The composite index declined slightly. In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, with the growth rate slowing compared to September. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's exports showed a stable growth trend. On November 7, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.10 points, down 3.6% from the previous period. - In the European route, the eurozone's composite PMI in October reached 52.5, better than expected. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's economy was weak. Freight demand remained stable this week, and freight rates fell after continuous increases. On November 7, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1323 per twenty - foot equivalent unit (TEU), down 1.6% from the previous period. - In the Mediterranean route, the market situation was similar to that of the European route, with slightly better supply - demand fundamentals and a slight increase in spot booking prices. On November 7, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $2029 per TEU, up 2.3% from the previous period. - In the North American route, the US government shutdown has lasted for 36 days, which may cause greater economic damage. The labor demand in the US job market is slowing, and wage growth has stagnated. Freight demand was relatively stable this week, and spot booking prices fell from high levels. On November 7, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2212 per FEU and $2848 per FEU respectively, down 16.4% and 17.2% from the previous period. - The situation in northern Israel is tense. The Israeli Defense Forces carried out large - scale air strikes on Hezbollah military targets in southern Lebanon, and both sides are on high alert. Egypt proposed a new plan, asking Hamas to provide information on tunnels to be destroyed in exchange for allowing 200 Hamas militants in the Rafah tunnels to return to the Hamas - controlled area with weapons. Israel has not responded to this plan [9][10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on November 10, 2025, was 1504.8, up 24.5% from 1208.71 on November 3. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1329.71, up 4.9% from 1267.15 on November 3 [12]. 4.3.2 Futures Market of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The trading data of container shipping futures to Europe on November 12 shows that different contracts had different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the EC2512 contract had a previous settlement price of 1811.3, a closing price of 1749.4, a decline of 61.9, and a decline rate of 3.42%. The trading volume was 22,970, and the open interest decreased by 4,048 [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on container shipping spot prices, futures trends, container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, and freight rates between Shanghai and European ports [13][19][22]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement, and the fundamentals remain weakly - realistic. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price will mainly remain in high - level fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the polysilicon main contract was weak first and then strong. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,460 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.43%. The trading volume was 413,154 lots, and the open interest was 140,617 lots, with a net increase of 2,149 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re -投料 was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat month - on - month [4]. - In October, the output was 137,000 tons. In November, there is an expectation of production cuts in the southwest production area, with the monthly output expected to be around 120,000 tons. The realization degree of production cuts needs to be observed under the current profit improvement conditions. The output of silicon wafers and solar cells remains stable at 55 - 60GW, but the terminal demand has entered a trough after the "rush - to - install" period and there is no optimistic repair expectation. The industrial chain profit is currently concentrated in the silicon material end, and the downstream silicon wafer and component prices have loosened recently, so there is great resistance to spot price increases [4]. 2. Market News - On November 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,850 lots, remaining the same as the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the rumors on the Internet are all false information. The association and enterprises in the industry are working together, and relevant work is progressing steadily [5].
建信期货棉花日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:24
Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was released on November 13, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market shows different price ranges and basis levels for different cotton qualities. The overall trading in the pure cotton yarn market is marginally weakening, with new orders insufficient and differentiation among varieties. The profit of weaving factories is around the break - even line. Some local all - cotton grey cloth prices have increased, and the overall price is stable. The shipment of all - cotton weaving factories has increased locally, and the inventory has decreased. Internationally, the US government shutdown crisis shows signs of improvement, and the NASS monthly supply - demand report is scheduled for November 14. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is gradually ending, the purchase price has declined from the peak, and the market is concerned about changes in production expectations. The import of US cotton may pick up. As of the end of October, the commercial cotton inventory level is slightly higher than that of last year. The downstream terminal demand remains tepid but has some resilience, and there has been a marginal improvement in local downstream demand recently. The textile and clothing export in October declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the weekly data shows that the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly and the finished product inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is increasing during the peak season of new cotton listing and processing [7][8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For futures contracts, CF2601 closed at 13,570 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 255,193 lots and an open interest of 564,881 lots, a decrease of 9,024 lots. CF2605 closed at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 8,345 lots and an open interest of 264,282 lots, an increase of 2,505 lots. CF2609 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 280 lots and an open interest of 6,169 lots, an increase of 54 lots. In the spot market, the 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (gross weight), and the basis is in different ranges. The basis of grade 41 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly above CF01 + 900 [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: The international market is waiting for the US NASS monthly supply - demand report. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is approaching the end, the purchase price has dropped, and the market is concerned about production expectations. The import of US cotton may increase. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly while the inventory has decreased [8] 2. Industry News - From November 3 - 9, the large - scale machine - picking of cotton in Xinjiang was basically completed. Picking in northern Xinjiang has ended, and the purchase volume is scarce. Picking in southern Xinjiang is in the final stage. As the picking nears the end, the quality of seed cotton has declined from the peak, and the purchase price has also decreased. The machine - picked cotton purchase price is mostly between 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the high - quality seed cotton purchase price remains around 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in Xinjiang has also slightly decreased, ranging from 6.8 - 7.1 yuan/kg. As of 24:00 on November 11, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in Xinjiang in the 25/26 season was 260,000 tons, and the national cumulative public inspection was 2.62 million tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the Chinese cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][19][21][29][31]
建信期货PTA日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:24
Report Overview - Report Title: PTA Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Crude oil's premium is gradually receding due to the easing of the European geopolitical situation. Despite the boost from the Middle East issue, it's difficult for oil prices to rise, providing limited cost support for PTA. PTA prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 12th, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2601 was 4,670 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.17%), with a settlement price of 4,670 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 18,488 lots. The closing price of TA2605 was 4,732 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 60,961 lots, an increase of 6,401 lots [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on a European country. The US government shutdown is expected to end soon, and international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply have limited the increase. On November 11th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 was $61.04 per barrel, up $0.91 (1.51%); the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 was $65.16 per barrel, up $1.10 (1.72%). - The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $825 - 827 per ton, up $5 per ton; the price in the South Korean market was estimated at $805 - 807 per ton, up $5 per ton. The oil market at the cost - end continued to rise. Domestic PX and PTA plants were operating stably, and trading was cautious during the annual contract negotiation period. The closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2601 was 4,670 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.17%), with a settlement price of 4,670 yuan/ton and a daily reduction of 18,488 lots [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, price spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and inventory [11][13][17]. All data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department.