油脂：大宗集体走弱 菜油逆势收涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 | 脂 每 | 日 | 数 据 | 追 | 踪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 7902.00 | 7986.00 | -84.00 | -1.05% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 9198.00 | 9304.00 | -106.00 | -1.14% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月3日 | 元/吨 | 9534.00 | 9466.00 | 68.00 | 0.72% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月2日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1029.25 | 1032.75 | -3.50 | -0.34% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4月2日 | 美分/磅 | 4 ...

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

油脂：外围市场强势拉升 油脂集体收涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、巴西国家商品供应公司（CONAB）周一公布的数据显示，截至 3 月 29 日，巴西 2024/25 年度大豆收获进度为 81.4%，一周前为 76.4%，高于去年同期的 71.0%，这也是连续第五周 超过去年同期收获进度。作为对比，过去五年同期的平均收获进度为 67.2%。 2、分析师称，包括美国石油协会在内的美国石油和生物燃料组织联盟将于周二与美国 环保署官员会面，该联盟正在推动将生物质柴油掺混量提高到 55 亿至 57.5 亿加仑，远高于 目前的 33.5 亿加仑。 3、印度 3 月份葵花籽油进口量环比下降 15.5%，至 19.3 万吨，为六个月来最低水平。 印度3月份豆油进口量环比增加24%，至35.2万吨。印度3月份棕榈油进口量环比增长13.2%， 至 42.3 万吨。 4、据外媒报道，阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至 3 月 26 日当周，阿根廷 农 ...

朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 石朗冷 JIDGHI FUTUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 南位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月2日 | 元/吨 | 2978 | 2950 | 28.00 | 0.95% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月2日 | 元/吨 | 2832 | 2804 | 28.00 | 1.00% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月2日 | 元/吨 | 2983 | 2951 | 32.00 | 1.08% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月2日 | 元/吨 | 2345 | 2309 | 36.00 | 1.56% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 4月2日 | 元/吨 | 2552 | 2520 | 32 ...

油脂月报（2025年3月） 短期供应收缩 油脂偏强震荡 冯子悦 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 一、行情回顾和展望 行情回顾 行情展望 基本面变化—— 南美大豆：迄今阿根廷农户销售大豆的步伐为10年来最慢，阿根廷农户已售出840万吨2024/25年度大 豆，低于去年同期的1053万吨。巴西大豆收获进度大幅高于去年同期，其今年第一季度的大豆出口量有望 创下历史纪录。（中性偏空） 美国大豆：美国政府要求石油行业和生物燃料生产商就未来生物燃料政策达成共识。行业组织的初步 会谈结果显示，两大阵营均支持提高可再生柴油和生物柴油的掺混规模。（偏多） 国际棕榈油：三家独立检验机构发布的数据显示，马来西亚3月1-25日棕榈油产品出口环比下降4.23%- 8.74%。南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）发布的数据显示，3月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增长 5.1%。（中性偏空） 3月国内油脂以区间震荡为主。豆油方面，港口大豆库存持续下降，豆油缓慢去库，供应收紧对豆油价格形成支撑，本月豆油期货震 荡收平；棕榈油方面，国内延续供需双弱格局，库存持续偏低对价格形成一定支撑，走势相对强 ...

金石期货研究所，2025 年 03 月 28 日 当前国际棕榈油市场多空分歧持续胶着，开斋节后市场焦点转向主产区（马来西 亚、印尼）产量恢复进程，基于作物生长周期与气象条件分析，东南亚产区已进 入季节性增产阶段。需求端方面，近期出口数据回落主要受油脂品种间比价关系 调整影响，而中印两国国内库存均处近年低位，印度在斋月后仍存在显著补库需 求，但产地高位 FOB 报价策略导致现货市场呈现 "高报价 - 低库存" 博弈格 局。若马来、印尼产量端兑现季节性高增预期，叠加印度补库需求存在充裕时间 窗口，建议维持空头配置策略，重点关注主产区单产恢复、印度采购节奏及印尼 生物柴油政策动向。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, it is not recommended to unilaterally bottom - fish coal and coke without significant improvement in terminal demand. In the long - term, the idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On March 28, black - series varieties showed overall weakness. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all declined, with decreases of 0.28%, 0.12%, 0.19%, 1.06%, and 0.80% respectively [1] Market Analysis - Steel mills' inventory reduction is obvious, and the resumption of production is accelerating. Although the production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have increased, and the daily coke output has continued to increase slightly, the inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased by 3.68% to 129.99 million tons, a two - month low. However, the steel mills' coke inventory has increased slightly by 0.8% to 668.12 million tons, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 12.27%. With the port inventory reaching a new high, the comprehensive coke inventory has increased by 7.62 million tons to 1060.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12% [1] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased slightly by 2 yuan to - 50 yuan/ton. The coking enterprises' demand for phased replenishment of coking coal has increased, and the coking coal inventory has continued to increase by 4.95% or 40.66 million tons to 862.88 million tons, reaching a more than one - month high. The steel mills' coking coal inventory has also increased slightly. However, the coking coal inventory of coal mines and coal washing plants has decreased, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports has decreased by nearly 3% to 674.64 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory has rebounded by 21.46 million tons to 2669.3 million tons, the highest in the month, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 7.11%. The coking coal supply is still loose, and the market shipment pressure is obvious [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the changes in the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the Trump administration's push for an agreement on national biofuel policy benefits the demand for US soybeans and soybean oil, leading to a rebound of CBOT soybean futures from a low level. Indonesia's plan to launch the B40 policy despite falling crude oil prices, along with the strength of US soybean oil, drives a significant rebound in Malaysian palm oil futures [8]. - Domestically, a large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in the second quarter, increasing the supply pressure of soybean oil. The cost side needs to focus on the progress of US biofuel policies and US soybean planting intentions. The situation of weak supply and demand for domestic palm oil will continue, and the cost side needs to pay attention to the price linkage of exporting countries. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in the producing areas, so it is not advisable to blindly chase up. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil continues to grow, but the rapeseed inventory has decreased significantly. The import volume of rapeseed is expected to shrink in March and April, and the threat of trade policies to long - term imports still exists, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of March 23, 2025, in the 2024/25 season (July - June), the EU imported 5.17 million tons of soybeans from the US, a 1.9% increase from the same period last year, with the share dropping from 55.0% to 52.6%. Brazil, the second - largest supplier, exported 2.91 million tons to the EU, a 10.1% increase, and its share rose from 28.6% to 29.5%. The EU imported 1.14 million tons of soybeans from Ukraine, up from 740,000 tons last year, and the share increased from 8.0% to 11.6%. The EU has imported 9.84 million tons of soybeans so far in the 2024/25 season, a 7% year - on - year increase [2]. - As of March 19, Argentine farmers pre - sold 8.4 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, 940,000 tons more than a week ago, compared with 10.53 million tons sold in the same period last year [2]. - Indonesia will raise the reference price of crude palm oil to $961.54 per ton in April, slightly higher than $954.5 per ton in March. Based on this reference price, the palm oil export tax in April will remain unchanged at $124 per ton [2]. - Despite a palm oil production cut in January, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of January increased by 13.98% from the previous month due to exports dropping to a four - month low [3]. - The Trump administration is promoting negotiations between oil giants and biofuel manufacturers to stabilize the implementation of the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which requires billions of gallons of corn ethanol and other biofuels to be blended into the fuel supply [4]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the Trump administration's action on biofuel policy is positive for the demand of US soybeans and soybean oil, causing a rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Indonesia's B40 policy and the strength of US soybean oil lead to a significant rebound in Malaysian palm oil futures [8]. - Domestically, the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans in the second quarter will increase the supply pressure of soybean oil, and the cost side should focus on US biofuel policies and soybean planting intentions. The weak supply - demand situation of domestic palm oil will continue, and attention should be paid to the price linkage of exporting countries. There is still inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas, and chasing up is not advisable. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is growing, but the rapeseed inventory has decreased significantly. Rapeseed imports are expected to shrink in March and April, and trade policies still pose a threat to long - term imports, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly [8].

豆粕生猪：现货成交低迷 豆粕止跌震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 JIDGHI FILTUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 文日 | 昨日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 3月28日 | 元/吨 | 2937 | 2942 | -5.00 | -0.17% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 3月28日 | 元/吨 | 2813 | 2826 | -13.00 | -0.46% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 3月28日 | 元/吨 | 2942 | 2948 | -6.00 | -0.20% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 3月28日 | 元/吨 | 2348 | 2369 | -21.00 | -0.89% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 ...