油脂：棕榈油反弹延续 带动油脂探底回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 1、巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，2025 年 5 月份巴西大豆出口量将达到 1403 万吨，低于上周预估的 1452 万吨。如果预测成为现实，仍高于 4 月份的 1347.6 万吨以及去 年 5 月的 1347.2 万吨。 2、南美作物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士发布报告，将 2024/25 年度阿根廷大豆产量调 低至 4850 万吨，较之前预期调低了 150 万吨。本周维持 2024/25 年度巴西大豆产量预期不 变，仍为 1.69 亿吨。 3、印尼政府将 6 月毛棕榈油(CPO)参考价定为 856.38 美元/吨，较 5 月骤降 7.4%。6 月份出口税同步下调至 52 美元/吨，加上 10%出口费（85.63 美元/吨），意味着出口综合税 费降至 137.63 美元/吨，较上月的 166.45 美元减少 7%。 4、来西亚和中国已经签署一项战略协议，旨在发展中国西部的棕榈油供应链，扩大两 国之间的绿色产业合作。马 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, the market is in a clear downward trend, and the trading of coking coal and coke is further under pressure. A bearish view is taken on coking coal and coke, and there is no clear reversal driver [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Overview - On May 29, in the black - series commodity futures market, coking coal and coke continued to decline. The rebar closed at 2,978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the iron ore main contract closed at 707 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis - Currently in the off - season of steel demand, infrastructure steel demand has limited incremental effect, and construction in some cities is affected during the mid - and high - school entrance exams. The overall steel demand is difficult to improve significantly. Last week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 long - process steel mills decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons. Some steel mills controlled the arrival rhythm, reducing the raw material procurement demand, and the second - round price cut of coke in the production area has been fully implemented. There is an expectation of a third - round price cut [1]. - Last week, the profits of coking enterprises tightened, and some areas turned to losses. Coking enterprises mainly focused on active sales, but due to the obvious downward market trend, strong supply and weak demand, most coking enterprises had difficulties in sales, with inventories at medium - to - high levels, making it difficult to support prices [1]. - Due to the tightened profits of coking enterprises and the decline in steel prices, the procurement demand of coking and steel enterprises for raw coal is further under pressure. The continuous high production and supply of coking coal have led to inventory backlogs at mines. This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples reached a two - month low, but the raw coal inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 641.1 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 25.5 tons to 473 tons, both hitting new highs. The online auction of coking coal had poor results, most coal mines lowered the starting prices, and the phenomenon of auction failures did not improve, and the price decline of raw coal was hard to stop [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

豆粕生猪：缺乏炒作题材 豆粕小幅震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI FILLINE | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 載全 | 車位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 3013 | 3022 | -9.00 | -0.30% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2710 | 2716 | -6.00 | -0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2961 | 2966 | -5.00 | -0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2347 | 2347 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

油脂：三大油脂走势分化 棕榈油表现偏强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | :: | | в | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期高 | DCE豆油主力 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 7712.00 | 7740.00 | -28.00 | -0.36% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 8076.00 | 8044.00 | 32.00 | 0.40% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 9403.00 | 9444.00 | -41.00 | -0.43% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 5月27日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1061.75 | 1060.75 | 1.00 | 0.09% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 5月27日 | 美分/磅 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Today, black commodity futures declined overall. With no increase in demand, steel mills are not actively reducing production due to slight profits. The contradiction between supply and demand may become prominent, increasing pressure on prices. The variable lies in whether new projects will start during the off - season, leading to an inverse - seasonal increase in demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures declined overall. The closing price of rebar was 2964 yuan/ton, down 0.77%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3100 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the closing price of iron ore was 698.5 yuan/ton; and coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - **Demand Side**: The recovery of real - estate sales lacks sustainability, and investment and new construction have continued to decline significantly, dragging down domestic steel demand. As of May 27, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.45%. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 60.48%, while that of housing construction projects remained flat at 50.8%. Heavy rainfall in the south may also affect demand [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills increased to 59.74%, a half - year high. However, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, with the year - on - year increase narrowing to 2.87%. The profitability of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. On May 27, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3292 yuan/ton, with an average profit of - 126 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 22 yuan/ton, which may dampen production enthusiasm [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to expect high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure due to good weather in the US crop area and demand concerns caused by trade tariffs. The domestic continuous meal M09 is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and the spot basis is likely to continue to decline. For the hog market, the short - term supply and demand are slightly increased, in a slightly loose balance state, and the price may be under pressure [16][17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes up 20 - 50 yuan/ton in some areas but down 10 yuan/ton in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. DCE hog main contract 2509 fell 0.29% to 13560 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary hogs was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell 0.66% to 1061 cents/bushel [2] 2. Main Producing Area Weather - There were showers in the western and southern parts of the US Midwest main producing area last weekend, which was beneficial for crop growth. The cold weather will last until most of this week, and the temperature will rise until June. Some sowing work may be delayed [4] 3. Macro and Industry News - In the 21st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, the soybean meal inventory increased by 70.01% week - on - week, and the unexecuted contracts decreased by 17.23% week - on - week. The US soybean import cost on May 27 was 4569 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous day, and the Argentine soybean import cost was 3590 yuan, up 2 yuan. On May 26, the soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills decreased by 7.68 tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 66.73%, up 2.86%. On May 27, the daily hog slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises increased by 1.95%, and the daily hog出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 0.43%. As of May 24, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5%. In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipment was 1115.43 tons. As of May 26, the national imported soybean port inventory was 567.068 tons. From January to April, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4% [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, hog prices, and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][12][14] 5. Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure. The domestic continuous meal M09 is expected to oscillate. The national oil mills maintain a high startup level, and the soybean meal demand increases. The inventory is expected to accumulate faster in June. The spot basis is under pressure to decline [16] - **Hogs**: The supply slightly increases with general pressure, and the mid - term supply pressure tends to increase. The terminal demand decreases, but the demand may increase briefly during the Dragon Boat Festival. The short - term supply and demand are slightly increased, in a slightly loose balance state, and the price may be under pressure [17]

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall black - series commodity futures declined on May 27. The steel price continued to move down, and the market sentiment was pessimistic due to the second - round proposed price cut of coke. The supply of raw coal was strong while the demand was weak, and the market participants were in a wait - and - see state. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Overview - On May 27, the black - series commodity futures declined. The rebar closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke continued to fall [1] Market Analysis - The steel price continued to decline, and the steel mills proposed a second - round price cut of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The coke futures price hit a 9 - year low, and the coking coal futures price rebounded after an early - morning decline. After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises turned negative. Both coking and steel enterprises had a negative attitude towards purchasing raw coal, and the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises decreased by 2.17% to 865.73 million tons. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 3% to 86.3%, the raw coal inventory increased by 18 million tons to 624.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 37.1 million tons to 447.5 million tons. The trading volume of coking coal online auctions decreased, with a flow - auction ratio of 51.9%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, investors should take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, investors should take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The market supply - demand relationship had no obvious change, and the market sentiment was weak under the expectation of the second - round price cut of coke. The terminal market was in a wait - and - see state, and the seasonal demand was weak. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]

豆粕生猪：进口成本支撑 豆粕延续反弹 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 会门期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIURHI EILLIBER | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | रेमि | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月23日 | 元/吨 | 3003 | 2992 | 11.00 | 0.37% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月23日 | 元/吨 | 2718 | 2716 | 2.00 | 0.07% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月23日 | 元/吨 | 2952 | 2939 | 13.00 | 0.44% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月23日 | 元/吨 | 2337 | 2336 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | ...

油脂：缺乏炒作题材 油脂缩量震荡 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | :: | | E | 数据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期高 | | | | | | | | | | DCE豆油主力 DCE棕榈油主力 | 5月23日 5月23日 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 7774.00 8006.00 | 7760.00 7994.00 | 14.00 12.00 | 0.18% 0.15% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 5月23日 | 元/吨 | 9391.00 | 9405.00 | -14.00 | -0.15% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 5月22日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1067.75 | 1061.75 | 6.00 | 0.57% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 5月22日 | 美分/磅 | 49.14 | ...