-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02-29 03-15 03-30 04-14 04-29 05-14 05-29 06-13 06-28 07-13 07-28 08-12 08-27 09-11 09-26 10-11 10-26 11-10 11-25 12-10 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03 ...

豆粕生猪：进口成本下降 连粕高位回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI EILLINER | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月13日 | 元/吨 | 3051 | 3062 | -11.00 | -0.36% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月13日 | 元/吨 | 2727 | 2730 | -3.00 | -0.11% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月13日 | 元/吨 | 3041 | 3049 | -8.00 | -0.26% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月13日 | 元/吨 | 2363 | 2363 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall fundamentals of the black industry remain weak this week, with supply improving and demand continuing to slow down. There is a possibility of the industry being dragged down by the weakening of finished products and returning to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling mindset, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Black commodity futures stabilized overall with mixed gains and losses on June 13. The closing price of rebar was 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3082 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 703 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke contracts closed slightly higher [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 79.4 tons week - on - week to 3510.4 tons, reaching an 11 - month high and the highest level in the same period in recent years. The domestic arrival volume also rebounded significantly. Non - mainstream ore shipments have been rising rapidly, but the year - on - year decline in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse on a monthly basis [1]. - Demand: Entering the off - season, terminal demand has been continuously weakening. The total demand for the five major steel products decreased by 19.53 tons week - on - week to 882.17 tons, reaching a one - month low and the lowest level in the same period over the years. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly decreased to 58.44% this week. Steel mills were not active in reducing production. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% to 83.41%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.07% to 90.58%. The daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, only 0.19 tons less than last week but 2.3 tons more than the same period last year, indicating that iron ore demand still has support [1]. - Inventory: The daily average port iron ore shipment volume decreased by 13.81 tons to 315.25 tons, reaching a nearly 3 - month low. With the concentrated arrival of foreign ores, the weekly inventory of imported ores at 47 ports in the country increased by 102.83 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 6.66%, reaching a one - month high. In addition, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 108.50 tons to 8798.68 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio rose to 29.9 days [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price stabilizes from the decline, or trade based on the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

Report Summary - **Investment Rating**: Not provided in the report - **Core Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybeans is rising, and the spot price of soybean meal has stabilized. The price of DCE soybean meal and CBOT US soybeans has increased, while the price of DCE live pigs has slightly changed. The supply and demand situation of soybean meal and live pigs is complex, and the market outlook needs to be further observed [1][2][17] Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.53% to 3047 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose 0.04% to 13600 yuan/ton [2] - CBOT US soybeans main contract rose 0.19% to 1058 cents/bushel [2] Main Producing Area Weather - In the early part of this week, there will be more precipitation in the US Midwest, hindering crop planting in the south. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows more showers and temperature fluctuations [4] Macro and Industry News - Abiove maintains Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast at 169.7 million tons, and keeps forecasts for exports, soybean meal production, and exports unchanged [5] - On June 11, the import cost of US soybeans rose by 18 yuan to 4567 yuan, Brazilian soybeans by 9 yuan to 3748 yuan, and Argentine soybeans by 3 yuan to 3581 yuan [5] - On June 10, the national major oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased by 6.07 million tons to 9.86 million tons, with a decrease in both spot and far - month basis trading volume. The oil mills' operating rate rose by 1.49% to 65.03% [5] - As of June 8, the EU's 2024/25 cumulative soybean meal imports reached 18.2 million tons, much higher than last year's 14.5 million tons, indicating strong feed demand [5] - As of June 8, the EU's 2024/25 soybean imports were 13.3 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 6.76 million tons, both higher than last year [6] - Brazil exported 2.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.17 million tons of soybean oil in May. The cumulative exports of soybean meal and soybean oil this year are 9.65 million tons and 0.66 million tons respectively [6] - As of the week ending June 6, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 33.83 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 120.80 yuan/head [6] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.1%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.5% [7] Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybeans may move towards the upper limit of the range in the short term. The cost of domestic soybean meal is rising, and the market sentiment is bullish. The M2509 contract has resistance around 3050 yuan/ton, and short - term long positions should be reduced on rallies [17] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. However, the futures market has already priced in some pessimistic expectations. Observe the interaction between spot and futures prices and the possibility of accelerated spot price decline due to concentrated supply [18]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.11） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2991 20 0.67% 3100 109 | | 热卷 | 3108 24 0.78% 3200 92 | | 铁矿 | 707 7 1.00% 721 14 | | 焦煤 | 783.5 8.5 1.10% 910 126.5 | | 焦炭 | 1356 17.5 1.31% 1218 -138 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体上涨。螺纹收于2991元/吨，上涨0.67%；热卷主力 | | | 合约收于3108元/吨，上涨0.78%；铁矿今日主力合约收于707元/吨；双焦今 | | | 天收涨。 | | | 市场分析 | | | 需求方面，钢市需求表现疲弱，样本建筑工地资金到位率继续回落。目前行 | | | 业内整体预期不佳钢厂对原料的采购意愿谨慎，对合金需求有所抑制，施压 | | | 期价走势。不过眼下长流程钢厂利润情况尚可，厂家主动减产意愿有限，短 | | | 期铁水产量或难有大幅回落空间，对双硅盘面的实际下行驱动也暂时有限。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the export pressure of Brazilian soybeans gradually decreased, and there may be unfavorable dry weather in the US Midwest in mid - June. After the China - US leaders' call, the market is optimistic about China - US trade, leading to a mild rebound in CBOT soybeans. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved, but production also increased, with an expected rise in May palm oil inventory to 2.01 million tons, which suppresses the rebound space of palm oil. The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit also drags down the crude palm oil futures. [5][6] - In the domestic market, the import soybean crushing volume of oil mills reached a high level, increasing the spot supply pressure. Affected by the hype of high - temperature in US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise, causing soybean oil to stop falling and rebound. The fundamentals of domestic palm oil changed little, and Dalian palm oil followed the external market with narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at an absolute high in the same period. With the easing signal of China - Canada relations, the expectation of tightened supply of imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil may be broken, and the short - term rapeseed oil price may decline further. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending June 3rd, about 16% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 1% in the same period last year. [2] - From June 1st to 7th, Brazil's soybean export volume is predicted to be 4.9016 million tons, up from 3.0155 million tons last week. [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1st to 31st is estimated to increase by 3.07%, with different increases in different regions. [2] - In the 2024/25 season so far, the EU's palm oil imports have significantly decreased by 19% compared with the same period last year due to the long - term restrictive effect of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II). [2] - As of the week ending May 29th, the net sales volume of US soybeans to China in the 2024/25 season was - 1,100 tons, and the shipment volume was 65,000 tons. [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the CBOT soybean rebounds moderately. The Malaysian palm oil export demand improves, but the inventory increase and the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit suppress the rebound space. [5][6] - Domestically, soybean oil stops falling and rebounds, palm oil fluctuates narrowly, and rapeseed oil price may decline further. [6]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.5） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2959 4 0.14% | 3120 | 161 | | 热卷 | 3077 -6 -0.19% | 3160 | 83 | | 铁矿 | 701 -1 -0.14% | 740 | 39 | | 焦煤 | 757 12.5 1.68% | 910 | 153 | | 焦炭 | 1342 7.5 0.56% 1307 -35 | | | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体整体企稳。螺纹收于2959元/吨，上涨0.14%；热卷 | | | | | 主力合约收于3077元/吨，下跌0.16%；铁矿今日主力合约收于701元/吨；双 | | | | | 焦今天收涨。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 产业链来看，传统季节性淡季来临，叠加全国中高考限制部分地区噪音作 | | | | | 业，使得终端需求持续走弱。本周五大钢材品种产量微降0.47万吨，库存微 | | | | | 降1.79万 ...

油脂：美豆长势良好 油脂偏弱震荡 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SH | 网 | 目 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6월2 | 元/吨 | 7676.00 | 7688.00 | -12.00 | -0.16% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | ୧月2日 | 元/吨 | 8126.00 | 8130.00 | -4.00 | -0.05% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | ୧月2日 | 元/吨 | 9152.00 | 9101.00 | 51.00 | 0.56% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月4日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1044.75 | 1041.00 | 3.75 | 0.36% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月4日 | 美分/磅 | 46.72 | 4 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the black - series commodity futures rose as a whole. The double - coking futures rebounded sharply after significant declines, with coking coal rising over 7%. However, the market's core contradiction lies in the dual pressures of weakened off - season demand and cost collapse, and the fundamentals of double - coking are difficult to improve in the short term. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom, and previous short positions at low levels should exit and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures rose overall. The rebar closed at 2974 yuan/ton, up 1.57%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3097 yuan/ton, up 1.61%; the iron ore closed at 704.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures rebounded sharply, with coking coal rising over 7% [1] Market Analysis - The double - coking futures hit a nearly 9 - year low. With the intensification of capital game sentiment and the expected reduction in Mongolia's exports, bulls increased positions last night, and short - covering this afternoon further pushed up the prices. The main contract of coking coal once soared to 772.5 points, and coke reached 1375 points, driving up related industrial products. The coking coal 2509 contract finally rose over 7%, and the trading volume increased by 813,000 lots to 1.429 million lots, a record high. The main logic of coal bears is the difficult - to - ease pattern of high supply and weak demand. Currently in the off - season of steel demand, steel demand is hard to improve significantly, reducing the demand for raw material procurement. Coke sales pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of a third price cut. The coking coal market has poor purchasing sentiment, and coal mines face sales and inventory pressure [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Double - coking: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

豆粕生猪：进口成本下降 豆粕小幅回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 第二郎 JIDGHI FITUR | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 3004 | 3013 | -9.00 | -0.30% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2705 | 2710 | -5.00 | -0.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2962 | 2961 | 1.00 | 0.03% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月29日 | 元/吨 | 2352 | 2347 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 05 | 5月29日 ...