| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.19） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 现货价格 | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2986 | 4 | 0.13% | 3120 | 134 | | 热卷 | 3103 | 4 | 0.13% | 3200 | 97 | | 铁矿 | 698 | 3 | 0.43% | 715 | 17 | | 焦煤 | 790.5 | -1 | -0.13% | 880 | 89.5 | | 焦炭 | 1374 | -1.5 | -0.11% | 1245 | -129 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体企稳。螺纹收于2986元/吨，上涨0.13%；热卷主力 | | | | | | | 合约收于3103元/吨，上涨0.13%；铁矿今日主力合约收于698元/吨；双焦今 | | | | | | | 天焦炭小幅收跌。 | | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | | 供应方面，由于煤炭价格持续下跌，247家钢厂盈利率微降至58. ...

油脂：市场情绪缓和 油脂震荡偏强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 물 | в | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8152.00 | 8084.00 | 68.00 | 0.84% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8538.00 | 8518.00 | 20.00 | 0.23% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 9691.00 | 9703.00 | -12.00 | -0.12% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1072.75 | 1074.00 | -1.25 | -0.12% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/磅 | 54.62 ...

豆粕生猪：期现再度分化 豆粕基差回归 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 一、行情综述 DCE 豆粕主力 2509 合约下跌，最终收盘价较上个交易日下降 0.39%，收于 3062 吨，较 上一个交易日下降 12/吨，沿海主流区域油厂报价上涨 10-50 元/吨，天津 3020 元/吨，较 昨日上涨 30 元/吨，江苏 3010 元/吨，较昨日上涨 20 元/吨，广东 2910 元/吨，较昨日上涨 10 元/吨。DCE 生猪主力 2509 合约随着 20 元/吨，最终收盘价较上个交易日上涨 0.14，收 于 13835/吨，较上一个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。隔夜 CBOT 美豆，主力合约上涨 0.37%收 1074 分/蒲式耳。 二、 主产区天气 1 / 5 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 6 月 13 日美国中西部农业主产区气象预报信息，西部地区周日之前，零星至大范围零 星阵雨。周六之前，南部地区气温接近至高于正常水准;北部地区气温低于正常水平，周日 至下周一，气温高于正常水平。东部地区周日之前，零星阵雨，下周一，零星 ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02-29 03-15 03-30 04-14 04-29 05-14 05-29 06-13 06-28 07-13 07-28 08-12 08-27 09-11 09-26 10-11 10-26 11-10 11-25 12-10 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach a record high, but the tense sentiment in the international energy market and the uncertainty of weather in US soybean - growing areas support soybean prices, leading to a mild increase in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil production declined from June 1 - 15, 2025, while exports improved, reducing the inventory build - up pressure. Driven by the strength of peripheral oils and crude oil prices, Malaysian palm oil futures showed an oscillatingly strong trend [6]. - Domestically, a large number of imported soybeans have arrived at ports, oil mills are operating at a high level, and soybean oil output is relatively abundant. As the consumption of oils enters the off - season, soybean oil will continue to accumulate inventory, but the increase in import costs will strongly support soybean oil prices. The palm oil inventory has rebounded from a low level, with little change in the domestic fundamentals, and its price will continue to follow the external market. The oversupply situation of domestic rapeseed oil persists. The slow progress of China - Canada negotiations and the recent strong rise of ICE rapeseed futures support rapeseed oil prices from the cost side [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) stated on Tuesday that the soybean export volume from Brazil in June 2025 is 14.37 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 14.08 million tons. ANEC expects that the Brazilian soybean export volume in 2025 may reach up to 110 million tons, which, if achieved, will be about 13 million tons more than in 2024 [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture's June global production report shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19.4 million tons, 4% higher than last month's expected value but 2% lower than in the 2023/24 season [3]. - In the first five months of 2025, the total export volume of Russian vegetable oils is estimated to be 2.72 million tons, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The rapeseed oil export volume during the same period increased to 624,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase. More than 88% of it was shipped to China [3]. Futures and Spot Data - On June 18, DCE soybean oil futures closed at 8,084 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; DCE palm oil futures closed at 8,518 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; CZCE rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,703 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. On June 17, CBOT soybean futures closed at 1,074 cents/bushel, up 0.37%; CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 54.69 cents/pound, down 0.76%; MDE palm oil futures closed at 4,064 ringgit/ton, down 0.97% [2]. - On June 18, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the spot price of palm oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Nantong was 9,910 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [2]. - On June 18, the soybean oil basis was 226 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the palm oil basis was 322 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the rapeseed oil basis was 207 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The registered contracts of DCE soybean oil were 17,552, unchanged; those of DCE palm oil were 540, unchanged; those of CZCE rapeseed oil were 100, an increase of 100 [2]. - On June 18, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was 77.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.90 yuan; that of imported rapeseed was - 11.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of imported palm oil was 32.72 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.78 yuan [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with a likely oscillating trend in the short - term due to the increase in import costs and sufficient domestic supply [17] - The live hog market is expected to oscillate. Although the futures price rebounds in the short - term, weak demand restricts the increase of the spot price and the upside space of the futures [17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.95% to 3074 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose 0.25% to 13815 yuan/ton. CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.14% to 1070 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Major Producing Areas - From June 13th, in the western US Midwest, there will be scattered to widespread scattered showers before Sunday. Temperature differences exist between the north and south regions before Saturday, and will be above normal from Sunday to Monday. In the east, there will be scattered showers before Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 24th week of 2025, national major oil mills' soybean inventory decreased by 1.75% to 599.6 million tons, while soybean meal inventory increased by 7.19% to 41 million tons, and unexecuted contracts decreased by 15.19% to 460.56 million tons. Soybean meal apparent consumption increased by 4.04% to 175.69 million tons [5] - On June 17th, the import cost of US soybeans was 4606 yuan, up 3 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3811 yuan, down 1 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan, unchanged [5] - On June 16th, national major oil mills' soybean meal transactions were 22.48 million tons, an increase of 12.75 million tons. The overall oil mills' startup rate was 61.83%, down 2.99% [6] - In May 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 192.829 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 193.519 million bushels [6] - As of the week ending June 13th, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 1.99 dollars/bushel, up 4% from the previous week [6] - In the second week of June 2025, the national live hog ex - factory price was 14.45 yuan/kg, down 1.77% [6] - US soybean good - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the expected 68%; sowing rate was 93%, lower than the expected 95%; emergence rate was 84% [7] - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil shipped 698.07 million tons of soybeans in 10 working days, with a daily shipping volume of 69.81 million tons/day, almost the same as last June [7] - In May, China's social retail sales increased by 6.4% year - on - year; industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year; from January to May, urban fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hog prices and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, due to the increase in US soybean import costs and sufficient domestic supply, the short - term trend is likely to be oscillating [17] - For live hogs, although the futures price rebounds in the short - term, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the price is expected to oscillate [17]

| 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.17） | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 螺纹 | 2981 | 5 | 0.17% | 3100 | 119 | | 热卷 | 3093 | 4 | 0.13% | 3200 | 107 | 铁矿 | 699 | -0.5 | -0.07% | 720 | 21 | | 焦煤 | 789.5 | 5.5 | 0.70% | 910 | 120.5 | 焦炭 | 1365.5 | 13.5 | 1.00% | 1245 | -120.5 | | 市场概况 | 今日黑色系商品期货整体上涨企稳。螺纹收于2981元/吨，上涨0.17%；热卷 | | | | | | | | | | | | 主力合约收于3093元/吨，上涨0.13%；铁矿今日主力合约收于699元/吨；双 | 焦今天小幅收涨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场分析 ...

油脂：原油冲高回落 油脂涨势放缓 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SHF | HE | E | 数据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 7972.00 | 7960.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 8446.00 | 8436.00 | 10.00 | 0.12% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 9583.00 | 9505.00 | 78.00 | 0.82% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1068.50 | 1.50 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/磅 | 55.11 ...

Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation push up US soybean prices, increasing import costs. In China, ample soybean supply and high - level oil mill operations lead to rising bean - meal inventory. With the increase in import costs, bean - meal spot prices stabilize, and market trading volume drops significantly. In the short term, the bean - meal market is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation situation with a likely oscillatory trend [17] - For the pig market, the supply side has a normal slaughter rhythm and decreasing average slaughter weight, with increasing medium - term supply pressure. The demand side is in a seasonal off - peak, with weak consumption unable to support prices. Although the pig futures price rebounds in the short term due to policies and feed price hikes, weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, potentially limiting the upside of the futures market. Pig prices are expected to oscillate [17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE bean - meal main contract 2509 rose 0.13% to 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. DCE pig main contract 2509 fell 0.07% to 13780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.44% to 1069 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - On June 13, in the US Midwest agricultural main production areas, the western region will have scattered to widespread scattered showers until Sunday. Before Saturday, the southern region's temperature is near to above normal, and the northern region's temperature is below normal, then above normal from Sunday to Monday. The eastern region will have scattered showers until Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Before Saturday, the temperature is near to above normal, near normal on Sunday, and near to above normal on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From June 7 to 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than expected [5] - On June 16, the import cost of US soybeans was 4603 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [5] - On June 13, the total bean - meal sales of major oil mills in China were 97,300 tons, a decrease of 570,600 tons from the previous day. Spot sales were 69,300 tons, an increase of 4400 tons, and far - month basis sales were 28,000 tons, a decrease of 575,000 tons. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.82%, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous day [5] - As of June 12, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 95%, up from 91% the previous week and lower than 97% in the same period last year [5] - As of the week of June 11, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 99.73%, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week [6] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased. On June 12, the average weight of slaughtered pigs was 125.76 kg/head, a decrease of 0.24 kg/head from the previous week. Farmers' bearish expectations led to active weight - loss slaughter, and the proportion of standard pigs purchased by slaughterhouses increased [6] - On June 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 120 yuan/head, a decrease of 23 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 127 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head. Due to weak demand and increased supply, both types of profits decreased [6] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point faster than from January to April [6] - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the main employment population remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate decreased for three consecutive months [7] - In May, China's new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan. At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of bean - meal, rapeseed - meal, and pig prices, as well as their basis and inventory data [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For bean - meal, short - term trends are oscillatory due to the combination of high domestic supply and increasing import costs [17] - For pigs, prices are expected to oscillate due to the contradiction between supply pressure and weak demand [17]

油脂：能源恐慌叠加生柴利好 油脂集体大涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 뷰 | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 7960.00 | 7786.00 | 174.00 | 2.23% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 8436.00 | 8140.00 | 296.00 | 3.64% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 9505.00 | 9310.00 | 195.00 | 2.09% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1068.50 | 1043.00 | 25.50 | 2.44% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/磅 | 5 ...