Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate due to a slight decline in inland enterprise inventory and abundant supply in the main production areas. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and the future situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2129 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 price difference is - 50 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 896,627 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 526,136 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 146,999 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,435, with a week - on - week decrease of 188 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between the East and the Northwest is 135 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 34 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese ports is 245 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, both unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese ports and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is 7.52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.08 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 41.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.89%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 69.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 89.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 931 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers was 35.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 tons or 2.40%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22 tons or 13.45%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol output increased, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The new sugar - making season is approaching its peak in the domestic market, with continuous increase in supply, weakening spot prices, and lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 481,426 lots, up 51,928 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 79,005 lots, down 10,879 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4127 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4149 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5231 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5260 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country is 1116.21 million tons, up 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales of sugar in Guangxi is 237.4 million tons, down 593.35 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil is 330.2 million tons, down 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1170 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1148 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 66 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; for Thai sugar is 37 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.56%, up 0.6%; that of at - the - money put options is 8.6%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.53%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, unchanged [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 1.6008 billion tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with a daily average of 160 thousand tons, a 19% increase compared to the daily average of December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.8337 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.95 cents per pound due to the prospect of increased supply [2] Tip for Attention - As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537.5 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons less than last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure. The global and US corn supply - demand is relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending inventory forecast supports US corn prices [2]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve depots in December supports the market bottom. But high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the release of grain sources due to the concerns of growers and traders leads to a price correction. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price fluctuates slightly due to the changes in the selling enthusiasm of growers and the influence of policy auction news [2]. - The corn futures price has fallen from the high level recently after the previous over - expected rise. It has high short - term volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Corn Starch - With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the industry operating rate has continuously recovered, increasing the supply - side pressure. However, the downstream demand is good, and the inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased. The starch futures price has fallen synchronously with corn, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2220 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 18 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 8 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 444922 lots, down 46263 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 137793 lots, down 8866 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 103390 lots for corn, - 33318 lots for corn starch, up 1952 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 56230 lots for yellow corn, 2500 lots for corn starch [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 329 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 439.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1616139 contracts, up 13001 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions: 120900 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2353.92 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2590 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2290 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 2122.58 yuan/ton, down 18.49 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2730 yuan/ton [2]. - International freight of imported corn: 50 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 77 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 425.53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons [2]. - Forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine: 32 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports: 31.5 million tons, down 20.2 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory: 294 million tons, up 18.6 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory in northern ports: 152 million tons, down 11 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises: 104.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19170 tons, up 6390 tons [2]. - Monthly output of feed: 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong: 6 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn: 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei: 82 yuan/ton [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption: 141.67 million tons, down 0.09 million tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin: - 54 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate of alcohol enterprises: 68.22%, down 2.06 percentage points; operating rate of starch enterprises: 62.84%, up 1.18 percentage points [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 11.92%, up 0.27 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 9.48%, up 0.09 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 8.59%, down 7.1 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 8.58%, down 7.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of December 11, the sowing of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has ended, and the focus is on weather and crop growth [2]. - In the week ending December 11, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,582,995 tons, compared with the revised 1,740,898 tons last week and 1,153,344 tons in the same period last year [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 55.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 1149.7 | 1746.000 | +28.90↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +24.50↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 439.30 | 596.30 | +22.30↑ | | | EC合约基差 -66.84↓ | -235.54 | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1401↑ | 33065 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1.46↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 924.34 108.83↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1510.56 1506.46 | -36.15↓ 3.89↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 3.18↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,470.55 | 1118.07 | 22.99↑ | | | 波罗的海干散货指数（日） 89.00↑ 巴拿马型运费指数（日) 1,688.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,950 - 15,350 in the short - term, and the NR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,650 in the short - term [2]. - The overall inventory in Qingdao ports continues to accumulate, with increases in both bonded and general trade warehouses. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing, while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire factories are cautious in restocking, with a mostly wait - and - see attitude, resulting in small overall outbound volumes [2]. - The resumption of production scheduling by previously overhauled enterprises has driven up the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises conducting overhauls or reducing production in the later stage [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 131,752 lots, up 3,350 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 60,954 lots, down 689 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,015 lots, down 3,139 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,550 lots, down 575 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 72,960 tons, up 15,970 tons; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 59,573 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2]. - **Mixed Rubber Prices**: The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The Shanghai rubber basis is - 250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 730 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,927 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 567 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.73 Thai baht/kg, up 0.42 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue is 55.25 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars [2]. - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire开工率**: The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days [2]. - **Tire Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.86%, down 0.52 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.45%, down 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.76%, down 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.76%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, the sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market was about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - **Qingdao Rubber Inventory**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58% [2]. - **Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The restart of interest rate cuts by the Fed has pushed the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising. The London platinum price has broken through the historical high, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 main contract has hit the daily limit, with palladium prices rising in tandem. In the medium - to long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support its price. Short - term correction risks should be noted due to the recent large gains in the precious metals market. The report also provides price ranges for London platinum and palladium spot and relevant futures contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 482.40, up 31.55; palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 407.60, up 18.40. Platinum main contract持仓量 (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; palladium main contract持仓量 (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 466.85, up 21.31; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 366.00, up 2.00. Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 15.55, down 41.60; palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 16.40 (down). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 98.40, up 0.04; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.93, up 0.04; VIX volatility index: 15.74, up 0.89. Multiple Fed officials have spoken. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 41.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.3%. The Bank of Japan's governor and other senior officials have repeatedly signaled support for an interest rate hike [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest rate cuts has led to the continuous strengthening of platinum - group metal prices. The London platinum price has broken through the historical high, and the palladium price has followed the upward trend. Platinum may be supported in the medium - to long - term, while palladium's demand outlook is weakening, but its price may be supported by interest rate cut expectations [2]. 3.6 Key Attention Points - December 15, 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; December 15, 23:00, US December NAHB Housing Market Index; December 16, 21:30, US November Non - farm Payrolls Report [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the reserve demand for urea has slowed down, but there is still short - term restocking demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase steadily. Urea is being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises are finishing their shipments. The rigid demand from industrial compound fertilizers, appropriate restocking of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some enterprises' export orders have pushed the urea factory inventory to continue to decline last week. In the short term, with high开工率 of industrial compound fertilizers and continuous demand, and the existence of some reserve gaps, the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1629 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 52 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2547 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 97760 lots, a decrease of 20998 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 8216. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11245 sheets, a decrease of 51 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton, 1690 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu is 1690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 347.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, unchanged. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons; the monthly output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%; the melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 11, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week, an increase of 17.14%. Exports are being shipped to ports, and the shipping rhythm has slightly accelerated [2]. - As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons compared to the previous period, an increase of 0.02%. Some previously - overhauled devices have resumed production, driving a slight increase in domestic urea output. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production this week, and 1 stopped - production enterprise's device may resume production [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The enterprise capacity utilization rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. There are short - term fluctuations in production. The demand from industrial compound fertilizers is strong, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase steadily. Urea is being shipped to ports, and some enterprises are finishing their shipments. The rigid demand from industrial compound fertilizers, appropriate restocking of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some enterprises' export orders have pushed the urea factory inventory to continue to decline last week. In the short term, the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2]. 3.7 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - New sugar from Guangxi has gradually reached sales areas, and with poor market transactions, competition among three sugar sources has negatively affected prices. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started operation, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 53.75 million tons, 2.9 million tons less than last year. Next week, 4 more sugar mills are expected to start operation. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills have started operation, 9 more than the same period last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching the peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5207 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7; the main contract position is 429,498 hands, an increase of 12,559. The number of warehouse receipts is 611, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,126 hands, a decrease of 4,157. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 1490 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4163 yuan/ton, an increase of 53; that of Thai sugar is 4184 yuan/ton, an increase of 52. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5277 yuan/ton, an increase of 69; that of Thai sugar is 5306 yuan/ton, an increase of 69. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5295 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 1116.21 thousand hectares, an increase of 840.33. The cumulative national sugar production is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4; the cumulative sales of cane - sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3; the cumulative production of cane - sugar in Yunnan is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80; that of Thai sugar is 1112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; for Thai sugar, it is - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97. The monthly sugar import volume is 20 million tons, an increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.96%, a decrease of 7.27; that of at - the - money put options is 7.99%, a decrease of 2.16. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.54%, a decrease of 1.49; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.81 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of November 18, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 188,400 hands, a decrease of 12,227 from the previous week. Long positions were 150,467 hands, a decrease of 8019, and short positions were 338,867 hands, a decrease of 20,246. As of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, down from 53 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 151.31 million tons, a 17.14% decrease from 182.6 million tons the previous week. Brazil exported 330.2 million tons of sugar in November, a 2.59% year - on - year decrease [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading strategy is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 101,060 yuan/ton, up 3,340 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 168,125 lots, up 11,607 lots; the position of the main contract is 662,185 lots, up 25,801 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,660 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 15,260 lots/ton, up 210 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 95,150 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,650 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 5,910 yuan/ton, down 2,690 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 1,170 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 10,575 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,058 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 167,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 345,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power - type): China is 148,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 159,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year of new energy vehicles is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year of new energy vehicles is 2,315,000 vehicles, up 1,174,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 51%, down 7.06; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 48.11%, up 0.45 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 124,221 lots, down 7; the total put position is 97,390 lots, up 8,604; the total put - call ratio is 78.4%, up 6.9304%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.35%, up 0.0003% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price hikes, and industry associations are promoting solutions; in November 2025, the domestic power battery loading volume was 93.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 39.2%; multiple departments have deployed 2026 key tasks; the National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized measures for investment, consumption, etc.; at the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, relevant leaders said that the economy is better than expected and proposed 2026 policies [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The lithium carbonate main contract oscillated strongly, with an increase of 1.4% at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day. The raw material price was supported by the strong futures market, the supply increased steadily, the demand was resilient, and the option market sentiment was bullish with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD had double lines above the 0 - axis and the red bars expanded [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment suggestions for the aluminum industry, recommending light - position short - term long trades on dips for alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum, while emphasizing the need to control trading rhythm and risk [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,920 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,537 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,875 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts for Shanghai aluminum was - 65 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; for alumina, it was - 15 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 20,430 hands to 294,373 hands; for alumina, it decreased by 35,592 hands to 205,975 hands. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 900 tons to 519,650 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3,635 tons to 119,995 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,710 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 580 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 32.55 dollars/ton, down 5.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production in November was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina (for electrolytic aluminum) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.51%, down 0.45%; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. China's imports of aluminum scrap increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons, and exports decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the export volume decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The output of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52. The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 13.76%, up 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.43%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV was 13.69%, up 0.0257; the call - put ratio was 1.72, up 0.0321 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's November financial data showed that RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, M1 by 4.9%, the stock of social financing by 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans by 6.4% [2]. - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation was no longer the biggest enemy, and the risk of employment decline was more worrying. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against a rate cut on Wednesday, waiting for more data, and expected more rate cuts next year than the median forecast [2]. - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized strengthening economic monitoring and early - warning analysis, promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize, and boosting consumption with practical and new measures [2]. - At the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, Han Wenxiu said that China's main economic indicators were better than expected, and the economic aggregate was expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. In 2026, efforts would be made to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract was oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of bauxite was expected to gradually increase, and the price of domestic bauxite might decline slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity and operating rate might decline slightly, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants remained stable. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The profit of aluminum plants was good, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to grow slightly. Although it was the traditional off - season, the demand for downstream aluminum products remained resilient. The option market sentiment was bullish, and it was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract first fell and then rose, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production of cast aluminum might decline. The demand from downstream enterprises was cautious. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2].