1、中国人民银行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，下阶段将继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关注长期 收益率的变化。针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居民资产配置调整最终 会回流到银行体系，并不意味着流动性状况出现较大变化。 国债期货日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.540 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 94249 | 26727↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.050 | 0.05% TF主力成交量 | 72124 | 15993↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.472 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 41885 | 7574↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.750 | 0.05% TL主力成交量 | 76186 | 138 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1130.400 | 9.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20944 | +660.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 160,510.00 | +3600.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,050.00 | +74.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 217,933.00 | -164.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 504,079.00 | -107478.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 342,102 | 18734↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1123.02 | 6.33↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 19,556.00 | 266.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -7.38 | -2.85↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11555 | 85 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 147570 | -1979 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 727 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -46375 | 2323 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12000 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 11400 | -200 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 11700 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 445 | -385 | | 上游情况 | 全国:生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42967 | -713 全国:能繁母猪存栏(月,万头) | 3961 | -29 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0.8 | 0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3080 | 20 | | | 玉米现货价 | 237 ...

| | | 基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，近期 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 锌价回落，下游采购依旧偏淡，现货升水低位，国内社会库存略增；LME锌库存持稳，现货升水维持低位 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 。技术面，持仓持稳价格调整，多空交投转淡。观点参考：预计沪锌震荡调整，关注2.43-2.5区间，上涨动 免责声明 能不足。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锌产业日报 2026-02-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, and it is expected to continue to increase in Q1. The tin ore processing fee has slightly rebounded, indicating a sign of relief in the tight supply of tin ore. [3] - At the smelting end, most enterprises' raw material inventories are still low, and most enterprises are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. [3] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window is gradually opening, and import pressure is increasing. [3] - On the demand side, the development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded to 2,000 yuan/ton; LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. [3] - Technically, the position has remained stable and the price has rebounded, with a strong long - position atmosphere. It is expected that Shanghai tin will be strongly adjusted in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 400,000 - yuan mark. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 394,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is - 800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 190 yuan/ton. [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 49,230 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 585 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 31,287 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 920 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,489 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 175 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 400 tons. [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 135 tons. [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,516 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 131 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 388,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 387,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,140 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 3,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14,380 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons. [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 374,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 378,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 246,370 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,480 yuan/ton. [3] - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.5287 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China's Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report states that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, conduct regular treasury bond trading operations, and strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. [3] - US retail sales in December were weaker than in November (which had a 0.6% month - on - month increase) and fell short of Wall Street's expected 0.4% month - on - month increase. The holiday - season consumption was weak and uneven, with 8 out of 13 retail categories declining, especially the spending of low - income groups. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol production is expected to increase as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production. The inventory of inland production enterprises is expected to accumulate during the holiday due to the slow transfer of goods to the downstream. The port inventory of methanol increased slightly this week, and it may remain stable or increase during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate increased last week and is expected to continue rising. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2200 - 2300 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2248 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 32 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's holding volume is 786,703 lots, down 20,668 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 121,881 lots, up 13,766 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,582, up 500 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1855 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 355 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 38 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.16 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.81 tons, down 6.48 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.29 tons, up 0.37 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 27.36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import volume in the current month is 1.734 million tons, up 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 368,300 tons, down 55,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 92.26%, up 1.05% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 30.04%, down 3.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, unchanged. The operating rate of acetic acid is 81.72%, down 0.55%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 82.74%, up 1.87%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 851 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.72%, down 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.9%, down 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 24.84%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.71%, up 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 340,300 tons, down 28,000 tons or 7.61% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 315,000 tons, up 28,000 tons or 9.75% from the previous period. Most enterprises in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. As of February 11, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 1.4322 million tons, up 21,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 36,600 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,400 tons. As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 83.82%, up 1.86% [3]

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16575 | 240 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13445 | 215 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 90 | -15 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3130 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 162081 | 10137 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 49041 | 500 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37324 | -1689 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8513 | 612 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50803 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 16400 | 200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) ...

率或将下降。本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，春节前下游补仓进度好于预期，工厂出货量较大。不过随 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 着春节的临近，长途物流发运减少，后期尿素工厂或逐渐出现累库。UR2605合约短线预计在1770-1820区 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1797 | 12 郑州尿 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday procurement is basically over, with most sample production enterprises' inventories and the overall sample trading enterprises' inventories decreasing slightly. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined as some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Many all - steel tire enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10th, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly shut down from February 13th to February 15th, so the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. [2] - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,020 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 160 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 24,037, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,421. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 14,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong and from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 68.8 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.96 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 612.38 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 US dollars. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refining atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons. [2] - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers' cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders' cis - butadiene rubber is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 tons. [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 percentage points. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000. [2] - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons (4.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points. [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons (3.78%). Recently, there were few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remained high. The pre - holiday procurement was basically over, some traders sold at a discount to recover funds, and new transactions decreased. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - stocking for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, the egg sales are stable, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the breeding side has a good profit and a strong willingness to support prices. With the support of good profits, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has increased while that for old chicken culling has slightly slowed down, weakening the expectation of a decline in inventory. From the perspective of the futures market, restricted by high inventory pressure and the expectation of egg price decline after the Spring Festival, the futures price has been generally weak recently, and short - term participation is recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2,923 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 11,506 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots compared to last period. The egg futures spread between May and September contracts is - 422 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 48 yuan. The futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 106,233 lots, a decrease of 17,042 lots compared to last period. The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.43 yuan per catty, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan. The national laying hen inventory index is 109.28 (with 2015 as the base year of 100), and the national culled laying hen index is 124.98 (with 2015 as the base year of 100), with a week - on - week decrease of 23.8. The basis (spot - futures) is - 2.75 yuan per 500 kilograms. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan per chick, remaining unchanged. The national new - born chick index is 71.99 (with 2015 as the base year of 100), with a week - on - week decrease of 21.63. The average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.84 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged. The breeding profit per laying hen is 0.03 yuan per week, a decrease of 0.27 yuan compared to last period. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.86 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.58 yuan compared to last period. The average age of culled chickens in the country is 500 days, remaining unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.16 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.1 yuan compared to last period. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.55 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.03 yuan compared to last period. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.39 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.25 yuan compared to last period. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days compared to last period. The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared to last period. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 1,853.2 tons compared to last period. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7,210 tons, a decrease of 165 tons compared to last period. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, a major production area, is 6.88 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.72 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.87 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.56 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from yesterday. [2]