热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/3 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,208 | +17↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1595284 | -474↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 34,225 | -17114↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 0 | +6↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices. The supply pressure remains as steel mills maintain normal production and the 300 - series stainless steel production, despite cuts, is still at a historical high. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, the macro - market uncertainty increases, export demand is under pressure, and downstream shows a cautious attitude. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor. Technically, with stable positions and cautious multi - and short - sides, and breaking through the MA10 pressure, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 92 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,370 lots, an increase of 1,656 lots. The main contract position is 94,683 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,774 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 people, the first negative growth since March 2023. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale from January to June was 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 showed a slight oscillation, closing at 7,284 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PE production increased by 3.95% week-on-week to 618,900 tons. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream PE products last week decreased by 0.05% week-on-week, continuing the seasonal decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.19% week-on-week to 438,400 tons, while the social inventory increased by 9.09% week-on-week to 507,100 tons, with no significant overall inventory pressure. In July, there are many PE maintenance devices, but the previous new capacity put into operation partially offsets the maintenance losses, and the current production is still at a high level. The off-season for downstream continues, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low. The downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. In terms of cost, the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, leading to a recent increase in international oil prices. In the short term, both supply and demand of LLDPE are weak, and L2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,340 on the daily K-line [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,262 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the May contract was 7,248 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The trading volume was 243,442 lots, down 26,719 lots; the open interest was 444,132 lots, up 839 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 14 yuan, down 5 yuan. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 359,447 lots, down 488 lots; the short positions were 399,519 lots, up 2,868 lots; the net long positions were -40,072 lots, down 3,356 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,296.52 yuan/ton, up 26.09 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,398.54 yuan/ton, up 0.24 yuan. The basis was 12.52 yuan, up 30.09 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.02 US dollars per barrel, up 0.04 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 572.25 US dollars per ton, up 1.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 861 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 851 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 76.44%, down 2.25 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 47.96%, down 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.33%, down 0.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 12.35%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.38%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.5%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.73%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.72%, down 0.28 percentage points [2] Industry News - The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement imposed on two major ethane producers and exporters, Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer, a few weeks ago. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the governance of low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, the guidance of enterprises to improve product quality, and the promotion of the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on imported Vietnamese goods and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [2]

重点关注 股指期货全景日报 2025/7/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2509） | 最新 3918.0 | 环比 数据指标 +26.2↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 最新 3946.6 | 环比 +27.0↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2701.8 | +5.0↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2707.6 | +4.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5769.2 | +20.4↑ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5874.0 | +24.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6135.8 | +28.4↑ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6279.4 | +27.6↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 IM-IC当月合约价差 | 1239.0 | +21.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1927.4 | -8.2↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 405.4 | -0.2↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3166.4 | +12.8↑ | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term. Next week, as enterprises finish their maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,015 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 865 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,125 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 155,114 lots, down 1,571 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 36,726 lots, down 2,219 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 24,393 lots, down 8,086 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,003 lots, up 14 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 188,880 tons, down 270 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 28,023 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,342 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 217 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.88 Thai baht/kg, down 0.21 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 62.31 Thai baht/kg, down 0.69 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, up 0.73 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.34%, down 0.02 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.9%, up 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.84%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.83%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping decreased slightly in the northern hemisphere and changed little in the southern hemisphere [2]. - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, up 14,800 tons or 2.40% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 80,700 tons, down 0.62%; the inventory in general trade was 551,400 tons, up 2.85% [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and about 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume was about 533,300 vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down. The domestic social inventory is stable, but the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased and returned to the previous operating range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,753 dollars/ton, up 39.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,239 lots, up 410 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,304 lots, up 4,592 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,599 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons, up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 113,425 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 22,520 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.04 dollars/ton, down 3.29 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile output is 2.642 million vehicles, an increase of 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.34%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.27%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.05% [3] Industry News - In June, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000. The service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association shows that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [3]

抵触。随着后市供应增加，在需求端有限背景下，烧碱现货端仍有较大压力。期货方面，主力基差已收敛 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 至零附近，基本面尚缺乏利好，不宜过度看多。SH2509日度K线关注2330附近支撑与2430附近压力。 免责声明 烧碱产业日报 2025-07-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2380 | -11 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 257025 | -9073 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -4612 | -2624 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | 461305 | -267509 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2377 | -7 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2434 | -6 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -4612 | -2624 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2510 contract continued to rebound. The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.47%; the factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with a total inventory decrease of 37,900 tons and an apparent demand of 2.2487 million tons, an increase of 49,600 tons. Overall, rebar performed better than expected, with increased output, decreased inventory, and improved apparent demand. Meanwhile, the "anti-involution" policy continued to boost steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bullish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the position volume was 2,237,249 lots, up 10,870 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 53,683 lots, up 21,682 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was -14 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,073 tons, up 1,803 tons; the spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price (actual weight) was 3,282 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 124 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 706 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons [2]. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 873,400 tons, up 100,800 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2108 million tons, up 32,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.47%, up 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8047 million tons, down 51,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.6474 million tons, up 13,400 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons [2]. - China's monthly rebar output was 17.3 million tons, up 420,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.1 million tons, up 160,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, and any transshipment goods will be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam has agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomically, the US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 instead of increasing, with the first monthly decline in over three years. Trump claimed that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement. Fundamentally, there is great uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures. The waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, and the trading is sluggish. Most downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing the current price, and the domestic inventory has increased slightly. However, overseas inventory continues to decline, the LME cancelled warrants have increased, the premium has risen, and the strength of LME tin has driven up the domestic price. Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,585 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin is - 80 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 30,442 lots, a decrease of 923 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 631 lots, an increase of 27 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,215 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 710 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,882 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 268,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 269,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,320 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.99 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,700 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 261,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,700 yuan. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 unexpectedly, the first negative growth since March 2023. The US interest rate futures have fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers in China in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales are 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. Trump claimed that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on trans - shipped goods, and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7074 | 2 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7041 | 13 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7041 | 23 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7074 | 2 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 206902 | -16833 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 410193 | -1113 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 374604 | -21389 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 439800 | -19716 | | | 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | -65196 | -1673 仓单数量:聚丙烯PP(日,手) | 7392 | 0 | | | PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美 | 909 | PP(均聚注塑):CFR远东:中间价(日,美元/ 0 | ...