Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The market trading was active. Affected by overseas de - stocking, the weakening dollar, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. The overall amplitude was good. After the market rose with the short - term positive fermentation, there were signs of a decline on Friday. The price was still under the annual - line suppression, and the market continued to rise for two consecutive weeks, showing a good long - term trend [5]. - In terms of supply, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The supply of recycled lead raw materials increased slightly, and the profit increased slightly with the rising lead price. The overall operating rate and supply of recycled lead increased, but it was difficult to reverse the raw material bottleneck in the short term, and the supply increase was limited. In terms of demand, the overall market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, while domestic inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased, mainly due to the obvious price difference between the domestic and overseas markets, resulting in an arbitrage space. The lead concentrate processing fee began to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled lead and primary lead. In general, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Affected by the marginal decline of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, and overseas inventory will decline again. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term [5]. - It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,900 - 17,600 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market trend**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 rose 0.99%, and the market trading was active. Affected by overseas de - stocking, the weakening dollar, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, the price fluctuated upward. After rising with the short - term positive fermentation, there were signs of a decline on Friday. The price was still under the annual - line suppression, showing a good long - term trend [5]. - **Market outlook**: Supply is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the marginal decline of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, and overseas inventory will decline again. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term [5]. - **Operation suggestions**: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,900 - 17,600 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the overseas futures price also increased, while the ratio decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2,058.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17,295 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.40 [7][11]. - **Premium and discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount weakened, and the overseas premium and discount also weakened. As of July 4, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 270 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $26.47 per ton [13][15]. - **Inventory situation**: Overseas lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 53,100 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 265,900 tons, a decrease of 7,525 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 46,439 tons, an increase of 1,161 tons [28][32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply side - Primary lead**: The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. As of June 26, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 76.8%, an increase of 2.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with last week [18][20]. - **Supply side - Recycled lead**: The capacity utilization rate and output of recycled lead enterprises decreased. The main reason was the decrease in waste lead recycling. Currently in the off - season, there were fewer scrap batteries, resulting in passive production cuts. As of June 26, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major producing areas was 17,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 36.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65% [24][27]. - **Supply side - Number of enterprises**: As of May 31, 2025, the total number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, remaining unchanged [34][36]. - **Supply side - Import and export**: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. The overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price, and the domestic processing fee was low, resulting in an arbitrage space. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5,555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%; the total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11,830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 580 tons, an increase of 5.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 6,020 tons, an increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4,410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. Among them, the import from Kazakhstan was 3,620.889 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.25%; the import from the Philippines was 402.789 tons, a month - on - month increase of 294.78%. The import volume of crude lead was 7,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons, an increase of 13.80%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,760 tons, an increase of 31.16% [38][40]. - **Demand side - Processing fee**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat, and the import processing fee also remained flat. The low processing fee led to an arbitrage space, and the market began to import lead for processing and then export it. As of June 27, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 640 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $40 per thousand tons [42][44]. - **Demand side - Automobile production and sales**: Automobile production and sales showed a marginal decline. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. For passenger cars, the production was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. For commercial vehicles, the production was 336,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. For new energy vehicles, the production was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. The automobile export was 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, the new - energy vehicle export was 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [46][48]. - **Demand side - Battery and charging piles**: The battery price remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [50][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - **Supply Data**: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - **Inventory**: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the exception of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, and large - cap blue - chip stocks were stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for band - trading opportunities after clear policy signals. For commodities, the index is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For foreign exchange, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. - The improvement in trade relations and domestic policies on reducing over - capacity are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The euro is viewed with an oscillatory outlook due to short - term tariff uncertainties [6]. - The US employment market shows signs of slowing actual momentum, and the outcome of tariff negotiations is a key variable for the market. The eurozone economy has positive signs but may face short - term callback pressure, while the Japanese yen may be supported [10]. - China's manufacturing industry is moderately recovering, with the service industry driving the overall economic prosperity. There is still room for subsequent economic recovery [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 1.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, and the four stock index futures showed differentiated performance. The market was driven by the release of June PMI data on Monday and the news of the relaxation of Sino - US economic and trade restrictions on Friday afternoon. Market trading activity declined slightly compared with last week. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03% this week, with a change of - 0.04BP. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%. The short - term Treasury bond futures were weak, and the long - term ones were strong. Given the current weak economic recovery and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 0.36%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.84%. The improvement in trade relations and domestic over - capacity reduction policies are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.56%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.62%. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The eurozone inflation is cooling, and the economy is expected to be boosted, but it still faces short - term tariff uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to study issues such as the in - depth promotion of the national unified market and high - quality development of the marine economy. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Party Central Committee's Decision - Making and Coordination Institutions". Three departments issued tax - incentive policies for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued all the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project lists for this year [14]. - **International News**: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The International Settlement Bank warned that US inflation may return. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade - agreement negotiations [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, and the composite PMI was 50.7. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan this week [6][11][19]. - **US**: In June, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, the ADP employment number was - 33,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 147,000 [17]. - **EU**: In June, the eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5, the CPI annual rate initial value was 2%, and the May unemployment rate was 6.3% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The UK's Q1 GDP annual rate final value was 1.3%, Germany's June CPI monthly rate initial value was 0, and France's June manufacturing PMI final value was 48.1 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include Germany's May seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate, the eurozone's May retail sales monthly rate, Japan's May trade balance, China's June CPI and PPI annual rates, and the US's May wholesale sales monthly rate, among others [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased significantly. Fundamentally, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain, and Thailand has restricted the import of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, raw material shortages and cost pressures coexist in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has decreased, and the electronics industry has entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline [4]. - Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark, with the 10 - day moving average providing support [4]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly this week, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include strong US employment data and a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamental factors involve supply uncertainties from Myanmar and Congo, and weak demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries. Technically, positions are stable, and attention should be paid to the 270,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Premium**: This week, the futures price fluctuated, and the spot premium was lowered. As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 266,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,560 yuan/ton or 0.58% from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,805 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton or 0.01% from June 27 [7]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.19, an increase of 0.05 from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.94, an increase of 0.03 from June 26 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 55,224 lots, a decrease of 4,270 lots or 7.18% from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -1,309 lots, a decrease of 5,196 lots from June 23 [15][16]. 3.3 Industry Chain 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was -0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of -0.01%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [21][22]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On July 4, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 13.33% from June 27. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 8.7% from June 27 [25]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of July 4, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was -6,588 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,725.45 yuan/ton from June 27. In May 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of July 3, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,165 tons, an increase of 50 tons or 2.36% from June 26. As of July 4, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons or 3.49% from last week. As of July 4, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 6,807 tons, an increase of 256 tons or 3.91% from June 27 [38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces or 13.61% compared with the same period last year [41]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. As of May 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel both oscillated upwards. Shanghai nickel had a weekly increase of 1.86% with an amplitude of 3.66%, closing at 120,480 yuan/ton; stainless steel had a weekly increase of 0.87% with an amplitude of 2.50%, closing at 12,730 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in the US in June and the decline in the unemployment rate have significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel are both weak currently, but there are policy benefits. Technically, both are expected to have a short - term upward adjustment. It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.86% and an amplitude of 3.66%, closing at 120,480 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic data in the US has reduced the Fed rate - cut expectation. On the supply side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel resources, and the domestic nickel ore inventory has decreased. Some non - integrated smelters have cut production due to losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production, while the demand for new energy vehicles is rising but has limited impact. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, domestic inventory is decreasing, and overseas inventory is stable. Technically, it is rising with a reduction in positions, and attention should be paid to the MA60 resistance. It is expected to have a short - term upward adjustment [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: Stainless steel oscillated upwards, with a weekly increase of 0.87% and an amplitude of 2.50%, closing at 12,730 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: On the raw material side, although the PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased costs, the release of nickel - iron production capacity has led to a decline in nickel - iron prices, weakening cost support. On the supply side, steel mills are under greater cost - inversion pressure and have increased production cuts. It is expected that stainless steel production will further decline. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season, and the macro - market is uncertain, with continued pressure on export demand. Domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory. Technically, it is rising with a reduction in positions, and attention should be paid to the MA60 resistance. It is expected to have a short - term upward adjustment [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: As of July 4, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 910 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 122,270 yuan/ton, up 1,790 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - **Basis Situations**: As of July 4, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,450 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 570 yuan/ton [17]. - **Price Ratios**: As of July 4, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.6, up 0.06 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19 yuan/ton, down 0.05 from last week [21]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 4, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 1,557 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots compared to June 30, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 4,467 lots, an increase of 2,038 lots compared to June 30, 2025 [29]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel**: As of July 4, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 871,840 tons, an increase of 14.83% from last week. The production profit of electrowon nickel was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan/ton from last week [32][33]. - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Trade**: In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [37]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of July 4, the LME nickel inventory was 21,059 tons, a decrease of 979 tons from last week. As of June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 24,718 tons, a decrease of 2,357 tons from last week [39][42]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Trade**: In May 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [46]. - **Regional Stainless Steel Inventories**: As of July 4, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 335,642 tons, an increase of 14,833 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 580,317 tons, a decrease of 20,190 tons from last week [47]. - **Downstream Industry Demands**: From January to May 2025, the new housing starts area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In May 2025, the new energy vehicle production in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the medium - and large - sized tractor production was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the small - sized tractor production was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [56][61]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report - External Disturbances, Short - term Volatility Intensifies [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Internationally, the approaching monsoon season improved the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, the opening of the import window increased import pressure, while the summer consumption peak provided some support. Overall, the domestic sugar price was stronger than the external market due to rising demand. In the later period, both supply and demand will be strong, and price volatility will intensify. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the export of Brazilian and Indian sugar [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the monsoon season improved the supply outlook in Asia, and Brazilian shipping data showed an increase in waiting ships and sugar quantity. Domestically, import pressure increased, but summer consumption provided support. The domestic market was stronger than the external market, and later, price volatility will intensify [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract [5] - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, Brazilian and Indian sugar exports [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.92% this week. As of July 2, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar was unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.76%. The international raw sugar spot price decreased by 1.38% as of June 27, 2025. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 29,497 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 23,424 [12][15][21] - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,150 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,880 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,318 yuan/ton (down 0.55% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota was 5,480 yuan/ton (down 0.56% week - on - week). The in - quota profit of importing Brazilian sugar was 1,617 yuan/ton (up 0.87% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota profit was 455 yuan/ton (up 4.84% week - on - week). Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [25][28][34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, with a national sugar production of 1.11621 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons (12.03% increase). As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% surge year - on - year, but the cumulative import from January to May was 630,000 tons, a 50.1% decrease year - on - year [38][42][46] - **Demand Side**: The cumulative national sugar sales were 811,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons (23.07% increase), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 906,600 tons (a 4.9% year - on - year increase), and the cumulative output of soft drinks was 7.46 billion tons (a 25.19% year - on - year increase) [50][55] 3.4 Option and Stock - related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of sugar this week was presented, but specific data was not fully described [56] - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but specific data was not fully described [60]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 焦煤市场周报 中央经济委反内卷，情绪回暖价格震荡 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量188.0万吨，环比增3.0万吨。 2. 110家洗煤厂产量：日均产量50.15万吨减0.84万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1745.69万吨，环比增加4.5万吨，同比增加0.97%。 4. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦亏损52元/吨。 5. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加14.72个百分点。 6. 需求端铁水产量：铁水高位窄幅运行。日均铁水产量 240.85万吨，环比上周减少1.44万吨，同比去年增加1.53万吨。。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调引导企业提升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - For corn, the international corn price still has an advantage. In the domestic market, the import corn targeted auction started on July 1st with significant premiums, and more imports will be released on July 4th, which may drag down market sentiment. Wheat has an obvious advantage as a feed substitute, reducing the feed demand for corn. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high levels, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch performs relatively well. However, downstream demand is entering the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures have also been oscillating recently, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2363 yuan/ton (no change), and the corn starch month - to - month spread (9 - 11) is 60 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 12665 hands (up 1277 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume of corn starch is 22722 hands (down 600 hands) [2]. - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is 418.25 cents/bushel, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 130570 contracts (down 23326 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton (no change). The difference between Shandong starch and corn is 420 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons (up 1.82 million tons). The predicted sown area in Brazil is 131 million hectares (up 5 million hectares), and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons (up 0.3 million tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 113.3 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and starch enterprise inventories are 131.3 million tons (up 0.4 million tons). The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons (up 4060 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (no change). The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 46.18% (up 2.38%), and the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.2% (up 0.05%) [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.19% (down 0.06%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 9.73% (down 0.5%) [2]. Industry News - The probability of the La Nina weather system forming this year is decreasing. The predicted corn export volume of Brazil in June 2025 is 566,435 tons, lower than the previous estimate. The US corn planting area in 2025 is 95.2 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121790 | 570 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -90 | 0 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15340 | 150 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 71229 | -3534 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -6582 | 178 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 203628 | -378 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 24718 | -586 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 9786 | -1224 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 21065 | -72 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122550 | 500 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122750 | 600 | | | 上海电解镍:CIF(提单)(日,美元/吨) | 85 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed industry, including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news. It also provides views on rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to the increase in soybean supply and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. However, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed are reported, along with changes in positions such as net buying volume and open interest. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9619 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions in rapeseed oil is 27560 hands, a decrease of 5099 hands [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are given, with the rapeseed oil spread at 69 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and the rapeseed meal spread at - 781 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and for rapeseed meal is 16855 (down 3294) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed, and related products are reported, along with price changes. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.82 (up 0.07), and the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are also provided [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: Global rapeseed production forecasts are given, with the global rapeseed production forecast at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons). Rapeseed import volume decreased by 15.37% compared to the previous period, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 88.82 yuan/ton to 5242.76 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons (unchanged), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46% (down 2.8%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, eastern, and Guangxi regions are reported, with most showing a downward trend. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 111,500 tons (down 10,500 tons) [2]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, with the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil at 340,000 tons (up 100,000 tons) and rapeseed meal at 287,900 tons (up 41,300 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Demand**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 30,000 tons (up 1,900 tons), and of rapeseed meal is 34,800 tons (up 6,100 tons). The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil is reported, along with the monthly retail sales of catering [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, as well as their historical volatilities, are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.59% (down 0.98%) [2]. Industry News - **ICE Rapeseed**: On July 2, the most actively traded November ICE rapeseed contract rose 24.80 Canadian dollars, or 3.5%, to settle at 734.50 Canadian dollars per ton, following the rise of US soybean oil [2]. - **USDA Data**: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 2025 US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and last year's level [2]. - **Canada**: Statistics Canada revised up the 2024 rapeseed production forecast to 1.918 million tons and revised down the 2025 rapeseed planting area to 21.5 million acres [2]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by the increase in soybean supply, but the demand in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].