Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the I2509 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, due to the slow progress of trade negotiations between the US and Japan, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese exports on Tuesday. In terms of supply - demand, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The rise in steel prices drove the rebound of iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising upwards. Overall, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the domestic port inventory increased slightly; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and hot metal output of steel mills increased, and the demand support for iron ore still exists. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 733.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the position volume was 639,417 lots, down 8,458 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 39,580 lots, up 14,833 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 3,300 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 96.4 dollars/ton, up 1.25 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 759 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 671 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 9 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 95.10 dollars/ton, up 1.95 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.58, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 784 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore leaving ports was 3,357.60 million tons, down 149.10 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.50 million tons, down 359.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 million tons, down 88.77 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.00 million tons, down 501.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.33 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 65.69%, up 2.14 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 53.36 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The BDI index was 1,443.00, down 15.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 18.93 dollars/ton, down 0.91 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 7.04 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 13.25%, up 0.57 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.89%, up 0.29 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.64%, up 2.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.07%, up 1.94 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,882.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 million tons. Mysteel's statistics showed that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,800.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 136.52 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 118.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.29 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.69, a week - on - week increase of 0.71 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the inventory of methanol enterprises has rapidly accumulated, and the port inventory has shown narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue to drop [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2414 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest is 706,992 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,169 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 77,527 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, with no week - on - week change [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2005 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 445 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 345 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.5 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 50.95 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 16.42 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is 12.74 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.46 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.66% [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.02%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 968 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.13 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [3] - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 67.37 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, with an increase of 1.35 tons; South China has reduced inventory, with a decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.25%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.09% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week. However, downstream shipping pressure remains, and production and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance schedules, and some reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, as maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. [2] - The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 11,185 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the position of the main contract was 28,760, up 871. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 700 tons, unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 315 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. [2] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil was 69.11 dollars/barrel, up 2 dollars; WTI crude oil was 67.45 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 572.25 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 8,875 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan. [2] b. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 69.75%, down 0.31 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,450 tons, down 950 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit was 45.02%, up 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.94 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 68.54%, up 2.22 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 578 yuan/ton, down 1,165 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.41 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,650 tons, up 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,370 tons, down 450 tons. [2] c. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. [2] d. Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56%. [2] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year. [2] - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 5.333 million vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year. [2]

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-07-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3565 | 21 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -29880 | 121 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | 50 | 2 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 184136 | -2072 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 147 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 2.67 | 0 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -893 | -21 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 110.89 | -1.46 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 108.68 | 11.92 | | | 主产区平均价 ...

交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1737 | -2 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 38 | -3 -1185 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 222192 | -1691 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22466 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 500 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 178 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels. The market sentiment has improved recently due to the issuance of the photovoltaic desert control plan in the three - north desert areas. In the short term, one can buy put options for protection and follow the long position, while in the medium - to - long - term, shorting at high levels is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 35,050 yuan/ton with no change. The main polysilicon position is 76,908 lots, a decrease of 18,097 lots. The price difference between polysilicon in August - September is 745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The basis of polysilicon is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 2 yuan/kg, 6.5 yuan/kg, and 2 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 542,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg. The monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces. The monthly import volume is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, with no change [2] Industry News - As of July 2, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are stable. The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on a bill that restricts new energy, affecting the demand for the new energy industry. Under the guidance of the sixth financial and economic committee, leading photovoltaic enterprises have cut production by 30%, and polysilicon prices have risen [2] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Silicon wafer enterprises have not fully digested the previously purchased polysilicon, leading to inventory backlog and suppressing market prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to converge, and basis convergence trading may continue. The probability of a short - term halt in the price decline and a rebound for soda ash increases. It is recommended to go long on soda ash in the short - term and short the main contract in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - For glass, the supply decreases slightly, and the industry profit is poor with a downward trend. Demand is expected to weaken further. The basis remains within a normal range, and subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on glass at low prices in the short - term and short in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1183 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1039 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1648012 lots, up 177559 lots; glass main contract position is 1524412 lots, up 22334 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 279455, up 28480; glass top 20 net position is - 205464, up 145295. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3674 tons, down 5 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 802 tons, down 55 tons. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 20, down 5; glass September - January contract spread is - 87, down 2. Soda ash basis is - 15 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; glass basis is 4 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. East China light soda ash is 1175 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1155 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. Shahe glass sheets are 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, up 0.14 million tons; glass in - production line number is 222, down 1. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 176.88 million tons, up 0.19 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6921.6 million heavy boxes, down 67.1 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area is 18385.14 million square meters, up 2737.29 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Deputy Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized technological empowerment and industrial innovation in Hubei. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year has been fully released. EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi, and an important China - EU leaders' meeting is upcoming. The CSRC aims to prevent risks in bond defaults and private funds and optimize capital market mechanisms. In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A - share accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 32.77% [2]. Macro - level and Market Analysis - Guided by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on capacity reduction, both soda ash and glass prices rose significantly. For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production declined this week, supply is still ample, and profits have turned negative, indicating a further slowdown in production growth and a possible increase in cold repairs. For glass, one more production line was cold - repaired, and overall production decreased slightly. Photovoltaic glass demand is showing a downward trend [2].

国债期货日报 2025/7/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 64924 | 109.105 | 0% T主力成交量 | | 1409↑ | | | 51486 TF主力收盘价 | 106.255 | 0.01% TF主力成交量 | | 156↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 24843 | 102.514 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | | 156↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.130 | -0.02% TL主力成交量 | 72609 | 387↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.13 | +0.01↑ T09-TL09价差 | -12.03 | 0.03↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | -0.00↓ TF09-T09价差 | -2.85 | 0.03↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.11 | +0.02↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.59 | 0.03↑ | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead will continue to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories will increase slightly, while overseas inventories will accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Given the weakening overseas economic situation, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,063.5 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars. The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead was 87,707 lots, up 3,906 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 60 lots, down 179 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 46,439 tons, up 50 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,150 tons, down 1,925 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,260 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 245 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 26.77 dollars/ton, up 5.68 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 76.79%, up 2.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.58 tons, up 0.01 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, down 7 yuan. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 40 dollars/ton, unchanged. The global lead ore output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,151.79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries (with 2% antimony) was 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,755.04 points, down 21.88 points. The monthly automobile output was 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2] 6. Industry News - In June in the US, the ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 47,999 people, the lowest since December 2024. Interest - rate futures almost fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, might resign, causing the pound and UK bonds to fall [2] 7. View Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters increased their operating rates and production due to rising lead prices. The slight recovery of lead prices reduced the loss pressure of secondary lead, but the price of waste batteries remained flat. In the traditional off - season of the second quarter, the demand for battery replacement decreased, and it was difficult to increase the production of secondary lead. On the demand side, the market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while warehouse receipts increased. The processing fee of lead concentrate started to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of secondary and primary lead [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 3, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5390, up 0.41%. The market sentiment improved significantly after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. The production was operating at a low level, and the cost of Ningxia semi - coke decreased. The production profit of ferroalloys was negative, and the overall expectation of steel demand was still weak. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 3, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5712, up 0.32%. After the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market sentiment improved significantly. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' operating rate had rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the inventory was still relatively high. The downstream hot metal production was operating at a high level. The steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender price continued to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,712 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,390 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 589,140 lots, up 9,004 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 405,479 lots, down 5,516 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 30,962 lots, up 2,120 lots; the net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy was - 46,142 lots, up 3,302 lots [2]. - The price difference between SM contracts from January to September was 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the price difference between SF contracts from January to September was - 8 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 89,598 pieces, up 1,753 pieces; SF warehouse receipts were 9,678 pieces, up 169 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,480 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The average value of the manganese silicon index was 5,490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 110 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SM main contract was - 232 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 422.40 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises was 39.21%, up 2.82 percentage points; the operating rate of silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 31.70%, down 0.99 percentage points [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 179,235 tons, up 2,625 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 97,500 tons, down 400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory was 221,800 tons, up 15,900 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturers' inventory was 69,400 tons, up 1,400 tons [2]. - The inventory days of manganese silicon in national steel mills was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of silicon ferroalloy in national steel mills was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon in the five major steel types was 125,881 tons, up 2,164 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy in the five major steel types was 20,354.20 tons, up 389.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, up 0.526 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said on the 1st that he was considering raising tariffs on Japan to 30% or 35%, and the Japanese government had not responded directly [2]. - On July 2, the Iranian president approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency after the Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked by the US military [2]. - The World Meteorological Organization said that the hot weather in early summer brought life - threatening high temperatures to most parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and humans would face more frequent and severe high - temperature situations [2]. - The EU's foreign policy chief urged China to end restrictions on rare - earth exports and warned that Chinese enterprises' support for Russia in the Ukraine war posed a serious threat to European security [2].