Report Date - The report is dated October 21, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5,550 yuan/ton. The decline in raw coal production has narrowed. In September, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 4.1 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Fundamentally, the pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory rebounded for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 93,000 tons on the raw material side, and the molten iron demand remained high and volatile. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 140 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 260 yuan/ton. In the market, the second - round inquiry price of the mainstream steel procurement was 5,800 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry was 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, the factories still have a sentiment of holding up prices, waiting for the final pricing to guide the market. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On October 21, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,474 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,220 yuan/ton. Macroeconomically, from January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of semi - coke was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 435 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 380 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,746 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,474 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest: 576,922 lots, down 6,195 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 399,945 lots, down 10,326 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in SM: - 49,100 lots, down 2,192 lots; Net position of the top 20 in SF: - 25,888 lots, down 2,272 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 36 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - SM warehouse receipts: 46,638 lots, down 998 lots; SF warehouse receipts: 11,400 lots, down 703 lots [2] Spot Market - Inner Mongolia ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Ferromanganese index average: 5,640 yuan/ton, down 31.9 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 254 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis: - 196 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.457 million tons, down 21,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Ferromanganese enterprise operating rate: 43.28%, up 0.09%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 35.48%, down 0.46% [2] - Ferromanganese supply: 208,810 tons, up 4,585 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 112,800 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - Ferromanganese manufacturers' inventory: 262,500 tons, up 20,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 69,080 tons, up 3,050 tons [2] - National steel mills' inventory of ferromanganese: 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; National steel mills' inventory of ferrosilicon: 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2] - Demand for ferromanganese from the five major steel types: 121,113 tons, down 960 tons; Demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types: 19,572.52 tons, down 182.08 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 84.25%, unchanged; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.31%, down 0.22% [2] - Crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.8786 million tons [2] Industry News - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% [2] - In September, the total import of coking coal was 10.9236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2] - In September, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 cities decreased month - on - month. All 70 cities' second - hand house prices fell, and 63 cities' new house prices decreased month - on - month. The decline of new house prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, but the new house price in Beijing increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline of second - hand house prices narrowed [2] - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the JM2601 contract closed at 1177.0, down 3.49%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The mine operating rate and coal washery operating rate rebounded. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and inventory is expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 21, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.0, down 2.743%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The iron - water output was in high - level oscillation, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1177.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.00 yuan/ton, down 38.00. JM期货合约持仓量 was 828825.00 hands, down 22315.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 47556.00 hands, down 1245.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 3800.00 hands, up 346.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 73.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 2050.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian 5 raw coal was 1051.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported primary coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur primary coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal from Inner Mongolia Wuhai was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washeries was 26.10 million tons per day, up 0.40; the refined coal inventory was 290.40 million tons per week, up 10.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.36%, up 0.01 [2]. - The monthly raw coal output was 41151.00 million tons, up 2101.30; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 196.10 million tons, up 12.20 [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 997.37 million tons per week, up 38.31; the total inventory of coke was 57.29 million tons per week, down 6.55. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 million tons per week, up 7.19; the coke inventory was 639.44 million tons per week, down 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.90 days per week, up 0.24; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.19 days per week, down 0.23. The monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4256.00 million tons, down 3.70; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 7349.00 million tons, down 387.86 [2]. Industry News - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In September, the housing prices in 70 cities declined month - on - month, with all second - hand housing prices falling and 63 new housing prices falling. The decline in new housing prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, except for Beijing [2]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In September, the total import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. The Ministry of Finance announced two measures to support economic growth, including allocating 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits and pre - issuing the 2026 local government debt quota. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with September's economic data showing mixed results. The yield of treasury bond spot bonds mostly weakened, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The domestic economy's third - quarter growth was stable but slightly declined compared to the previous value. Overseas, the market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the Sino - US trade policy shows signs of easing. Fiscal policies are expected to drive effective investment and credit, and monetary policies may become more accommodative. The bond market is gradually stabilizing, and it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy while paying attention to policy trends [2]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.04%, and 0.37% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased, while TL's decreased. T, TF, and TL main contract positions decreased, and TS's increased [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads between different contracts decreased, while the spreads between different - term contracts such as T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net short positions of T, TF, and TS top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of treasury active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield at 1.3950% (down 0.25bp), 3 - year at 1.5100% (down 0.60bp), 5 - year at 1.5800% (down 0.75bp), 7 - year at 1.6825% (down 0.85bp), and 10 - year at 1.7450% (down 0.80bp) [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while the 14 - day rate increased. The Shibor overnight rate decreased, the 7 - day rate increased, and the 14 - day rate increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 189 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 253.8 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - The 2025 Q3 GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a 5.2% year - on - year increase at constant prices. September's social consumer goods retail was 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. The national fixed - asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held from October 21st to 22nd [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 21 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2138 | | 2380 | 6 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -7 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -112 | 吨) | -30 | -20 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 30648 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 800344 | | 53048 | -10702 | | | -9115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -47627 | | -52803 | -3788 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 12615 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 49324 | 手) | 12756 | -50 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) -7 | 319 | | | | | | 期 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/10/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 23.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1682.000 | | 1522 | | | +62.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2512-EC2602价差 -22.70↓ EC2512-EC2604价差 | 160.00 | | 526.90 | | | -3.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -541.62 | +81.28↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 442↑ | 2610 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025-10-20 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capacity loss due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry exceeded the output from restored capacities, leading to a slight decline in overall production [2]. - Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. The persistently low freight rates have also weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, resulting in an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week [2]. - Due to the under - performance of foreign vessel unloading under multiple factors, the methanol port inventory decreased last week. The提货 in the East China region was good, with inventory decreasing, while the South China region saw an increase in inventory due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading [2]. - The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and there is still a possibility of an increase in port inventory [2]. - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable, maintaining a high - level operation. There are no planned adjustments in the short term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 1,071,256 lots, an increase of 12,531 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 176,580 lots, a decrease of 27,277 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 14,902, an increase of 3,620 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 270 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 61 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 99.70 million tons, a decrease of 835,000 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.44 million tons, an increase of 317,000 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was - 16.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.7598 million tons, an increase of 657,100 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 40.88%, an increase of 6.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.92%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 72.52%, a decrease of 10.44 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.12%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 92.39%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1033 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.14%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 18.72%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.72%, unchanged [2] 7. Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 6.04%. The orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 98.64% [2]. - As of October 15, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 835,000 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 317,000 tons [2]. - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has been under pressure and in a callback trend due to the cooling of the tariff situation, with the market's risk aversion sentiment declining and risk appetite improving [2]. - The sharp correction in the precious metals market since last Friday may be driven by both fundamental and technical factors. The monthly RSI indicates that gold and silver prices are in an overbought range, and the market's expectation of Trump's tariff implementation has decreased, leading to a decline in the safe - haven premium [2]. - Fed officials maintain a dovish stance, and the probability of interest rate cuts in October and December is over 90%, which may provide some support for gold prices [2]. - Looking ahead, tariff developments will still affect gold price fluctuations. The U.S. government shutdown is expected to continue, and this Friday's CPI data will be crucial. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate this week, with short - term correction pressure remaining. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 930 - 990 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 12000 yuan/kg [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 970.32 yuan/gram, down 29.48 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11742 yuan/kg, down 507 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 207916 lots, down 14276 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 432663 lots, down 38499 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 117407 lots, down 13605 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 99705 lots, up 4292 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 84606 kg, unchanged; that of silver is 855850 kg, down 64253 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 975.5 yuan/gram, down 21.79 yuan; the silver spot price is 11834 yuan/kg, down 365 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 5.18 yuan/gram, up 7.69 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 92 yuan/kg, up 142 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1047.21 tons, up 12.59 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15497.4 tons, up 74.79 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 24.14%, up 1.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 32.85%. The 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 18.9%, up 1.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 32.85%, up 0.82% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in an interview, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing some tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - On the morning of October 18, Chinese and U.S. economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2]. - Trump signed an executive order on October 17 to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts from November 1, and a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanded impact of previously shut - down plants, with no new maintenance or restarting plants this week [2]. - There is a mismatch in the production schedules between upstream and downstream, which may deepen the supply - demand contradiction as 1.2 million tons of styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in October, while the downstream EPS, PS, ABS production capacity is concentrated from November to December [2]. - The terminal demand is weak, and the growth space of styrene demand may be limited due to high inventory and low profit in some downstream sectors [2]. - The cost of non - integrated styrene has decreased, and the loss has deepened. The cost support is gradually strengthening as the profit of integrated plants is low [2]. - Although the supply - demand situation of styrene is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and there is an expectation of positive macro - policies in late October, so the downward space in the future may be limited [2]. - Technically, the short - term downward trend of EB2511 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the RSI indicators show the price is in the oversold range [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract is 453,930, and the closing price of the November contract is 6,365 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 9,570 hands to 263,109 hands [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 35,433 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 793 US dollars/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices in different regions have declined to varying degrees, such as the Northeast region at 803 yuan/ton, the South China region at 6,610 yuan/ton, and the North China region at 6,515 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of ethylene and pure benzene in different regions have declined, such as the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene at 781 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf at 655 US cents/gallon [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the national inventory decreased by 443 tons to 193,420 tons [2]. - The inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons, and the trade inventory increased by 0.51 million tons to 12.15 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products such as EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber have changed to varying degrees, with the operating rate of EPS at 21.79% and that of ABS at 73.1% [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88% [2]. - The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the factory inventory of styrene decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, and the East China port inventory decreased by 2.67% to 196,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 11.59% to 30,500 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 7,128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international oil price faces medium - and long - term pressure due to OPEC's production increase and the slowdown of global economic growth, but the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain. The short - term downward trend of BZ2603 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the 6 - day RSI enters the oversold range below 20 [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 5461 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan; the main settlement price was 5535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan. The main trading volume was 8145 lots, an increase of 1292 lots; the main open interest was 15376 lots, an increase of 1387 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5615 - 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5400 - 5416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 - 28 yuan. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 676 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 684.32 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.63 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.03 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.8 tons, a decrease of 2.22 tons. The terminal port inventory of pure benzene was 9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 3.81% to 75.48%, and that of hydrobenzene decreased by 0.85% to 62.39%. The weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.35% to 75.37%. As of October 20th, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 9.9 tons, a 10% increase from last week. From October 10th to 16th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 33 yuan/ton to 347 yuan/ton [2]

股指期货全景日报 2025/10/20 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 IF主力合约（2512） | 4506.8 | +22.2↑ IF次主力合约（2511） | 最新 4519.8 | 环比 +22.4↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2512） IC主力合约（2512） | 2970.4 6909.2 | +8.8↑ IH次主力合约（2511） +44 ...