1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is positive with the central bank's "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. The industrial situation shows stable spot supply, a slight decline in hot metal production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and an increase in factory inventories. The iron ore price may fluctuate within the range of 800 - 825 yuan. It is recommended to consider range - bound trading for the I2605 contract, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Price - As of January 16, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 812 (-2.5) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 32.8 tons week - on - week. From January 5 to January 11, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons week - on - week [5][6]. Arrival - From January 5 to January 11, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased by 1.903 million tons to 30.15 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.64 million tons to 29.204 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports decreased by 0.437 million tons to 14.692 million tons [6]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 0.0149 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.0353 million tons year - on - year [6]. Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons week - on - week and 15.7135 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons week - on - week and a decrease of 10.0249 million tons year - on - year [6]. Profit Rate - The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract's rebound was under pressure. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 16th, the price difference was 18.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week [14]. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 16, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1500, a decrease of 100 week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 18609, a decrease of 1649 compared with the previous week [20]. Spot Price - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, with no change week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation Arrival Volume - From January 5 to January 11, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 32.8 tons week - on - week. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 1.364 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased by 1.903 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.64 million tons, and the arrival volume at six northern ports decreased by 0.437 million tons [30]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 0.0194 million tons. The inventory of steel mills' imported iron ore was 92.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.7263 million tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a decrease of 0.0143 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, an increase of 1.13 days [33]. Inventory Availability Days - As of January 14, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 2 days. On January 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1532, a decrease of 156 week - on - week [37]. Import and Capacity Utilization - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 8.2%. From January to December, the cumulative import was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 62.82%, an increase of 4.06% compared with the previous period. The daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, an increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons [41]. Domestic Iron Ore Production - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 domestic iron mines was 22.811 million tons, a decrease of 0.129 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.6%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decline of 3.3% [44]. 3.4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Production - In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel production was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [47]. Steel Import and Export - In December 2025, China's steel exports were 11.301 million tons, an increase of 1.321 million tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 13.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 0.517 million tons of steel, an increase of 0.021 million tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 4.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [47]. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production - On January 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 0.0149 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.0353 million tons year - on - year [50]. 3.5. Options Market - With a slight decline in hot metal production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, relatively sufficient spot resources but uneven variety distribution, and a positive macro - environment, the iron ore price may enter a range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to consider simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options for the I2605 contract [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 1.53%. The apple - producing areas have started the Spring Festival stocking, but the overall stocking atmosphere is rather weak. As of January 14, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 7.0466 billion tons, a decrease of 162,500 tons from the previous week. The inventory - removal speed accelerated compared to the previous week, but it was still lower than the same period last year. The market in the sales areas has slow movement, with overstocked transit warehouses and few customers. The apple futures price may run weakly in the short term. [4][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - The price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.53%. The apple - producing areas are in the Spring - Festival stocking period, but the atmosphere is light. The national main - producing - area cold - storage inventory decreased by 162,500 tons week - on - week as of January 14, 2026, with an accelerated but still below - last - year - level de - stocking speed. The sales in the Shandong producing area slightly accelerated but remained sluggish, and the de - stocking in Shaanxi also increased slightly. The sales area has overstocked transit warehouses and slow movement. The apple futures price may be weak in the short term. [4] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell by about 1.53% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 2,688 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0. [10][17] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of January 16, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit - grower goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty. [20] 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of January 14, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 7.0466 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 162,500 tons. The de - stocking speed accelerated compared to last week but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong producing area was 51.17%, a decrease of 0.68% from last week, and that in the Shaanxi producing area was 54.32%, a decrease of 1.03% from last week. [25] - **Demand Side**: - As of January 15, the average daily number of early - morning arriving vehicles at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased, and the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storers was suspended (represented by 0). [29] - As of January 9, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.33 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 yuan per kilogram, and the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.17 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram. [33] - As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.80 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram. [37] - In November 2025, China's fresh - apple exports totaled about 121,600 tons, with an export value of 123,853,780 US dollars and an average export price of 1,018.09 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 51.24% month - on - month compared to October and 12.38% year - on - year compared to November 2024. [40] 3.3.2. Options Market - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week. [41] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - Only the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable was presented, without specific analysis. [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the central bank has introduced a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production has increased for four consecutive weeks, terminal demand has risen simultaneously, and inventory has continued to decline. Although the cost - side support is weakening, the macro - atmosphere is positive, and the market is likely to continue range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3270 - 3350, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on January 16, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3315 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton week - on - week). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 308.36 million tons (+2.85 million tons week - on - week, - 11.83 million tons year - on - year). - Apparent demand increased to 314.16 million tons (+5.82 million tons week - on - week, +11.6 million tons year - on - year). - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 362.33 million tons (-5.8 million tons week - on - week, +45.9 million tons year - on - year). - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest rate cuts, and the situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support the economy, including interest rate cuts, increased loan quotas, and adjusted mortgage down - payment ratios, and there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production has decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke are showing signs of weakness, with increased production and inventory of coking coal and a high - level correction of coke futures prices. - **Technical - aspect**: The HC2605 contract is range - bound, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages, and the support at the 3300 mark is noteworthy. The MACD indicator shows an upward rebound. - **Market view**: Considering the positive macro - environment and the current industrial situation, the market is expected to continue range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3270 - 3350 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price and Spread - This week, the HC2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the HC2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - This week, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 holders increased. On January 16, the warehouse receipt volume was 221,062 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,525 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 in the futures contract was 13,134 lots, an increase of 6,227 lots from the previous week [20]. c. Spot Price - On January 16, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous week [31]. b. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3180.9 million tons, a decrease of 32.8 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2606.4 million tons, a decrease of 136.4 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3015.0 million tons, an increase of 190.3 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 million tons, an increase of 164.0 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1469.2 million tons, a decrease of 43.7 million tons week - on - week [37]. c. Inventory - This week, the iron ore port inventory increased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17288.70 million tons, an increase of 244.26 million tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 1.94 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased. On January 15, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 149.31 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons week - on - week and 64.47 million tons year - on - year [41]. d. Coking Plant Situation - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.47%, a decrease of 0.14%. The daily coke output was 50.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons. The coke inventory was 40.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.56 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons, an increase of 42.87 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 14.4 days, an increase of 0.67 days [45]. 4. Industry Situation a. Supply - side - **Steel Exports**: In December 2025, China's steel exports increased month - on - month. The export volume was 1130.1 million tons, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 11901.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Production**: On January 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily hot - metal output was 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 million tons from the same period last year. On January 15, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 2.85 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 11.83 million tons from the same period last year. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: On January 15, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in 37 production enterprises was 76.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.79 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 2.32 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.01 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 48.22 million tons year - on - year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 362.33 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 45.9 million tons year - on - year [58]. b. Downstream Demand - **Automobile Industry**: In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 329.6 million vehicles and 327.2 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.1 million vehicles and 3440 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. - **Household Appliance Industry**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 24536.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household refrigerators was 9934.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%; and the production of household washing machines was 11309.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong remained unchanged compared to last week. As the urea price rises, downstream follow - up has slowed down [6]. - Some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, increasing domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the change in production is expected to be limited [6]. - The agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with only limited follow - up in the reserve demand for green - turning fertilizers in some local areas. The industrial sector maintains rigid - demand procurement, and the continuous progress of the compound fertilizer industry provides support for urea. Some urea enterprises have balanced production and sales, and some have accelerated their shipment speed. However, as the price rises, the downstream chasing trend may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Downstream follow - up slowed as the price rose [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is expected to change little due to resumed devices and possible short - term failures. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with limited increase, and industrial demand maintains rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry supports urea. Some enterprises' inventory decreased this week, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.79% [12]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 16, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 28 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated further in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 16, there were 13355 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 505 compared to last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of January 15, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of January 15, the FOB China price of urea was 402.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the urea basis was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of January 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton (unchanged). As of January 15, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units (unchanged) [38]. - **Industry**: As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 140.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons (2.44%), and the capacity utilization rate was 85.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. As of January 15, the port sample inventory was 13.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (4.29%). As of January 14, the total enterprise inventory was 98.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 tons (3.53%). In November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [41][44][47]. - **Downstream**: As of January 15, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.08%, a week - on - week increase of 2.91 percentage points, and is expected to remain stable with a narrow - range increase. As of January 15, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.18%, a week - on - week increase of 7.83 percentage points [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.78% weekly [6][9] - In mid - January, the supply pressure is average, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end. The peak of curing and enema activities has passed, but there is still some demand. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is about to start, so the overall decline in demand is limited, and there may be a small peak later. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm affects the price. Currently, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, suppressing the price, but market sentiment is okay, and with the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price runs steadily, supporting the near - month futures price to fluctuate slightly stronger [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs rebounded, and the main contract 2603 rose 1.78% weekly [6][9] - **Market Outlook**: In mid - January, the supply pressure is average. The peak of curing and enema activities has passed, but there's still some demand. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is about to start. The overall decline in demand is limited, and there may be a small peak later. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm affects the price. Currently, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, suppressing the price, but market sentiment is okay, and with the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price runs steadily, supporting the near - month futures price to fluctuate slightly stronger [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Futures rebounded this week, and the main contract 2603 rose 1.78% weekly [7][9] - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 16, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures decreased by 12 hands compared to last week, reaching 51,537 hands. The number of live pig futures warehouse receipts was 815, a decrease of 103 compared to the previous week [11][15] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 175, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 780 [20] Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig January contract was 1,100 yuan/ton, and that of the March contract was 1,220 yuan/ton [25] - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: This week, the national average price of live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.31 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.66 yuan/kg from last week [30] - **Pork and Sows Prices**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the week of January 8, the national average pork price was 23 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [37] - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of January 7, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.51, an increase of 0.11 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [42] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons, a decrease of 1.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [47] - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [51] - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: According to Mysteel data, in December, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.7829 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.68% and a year - on - year increase of 6.64%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it was 0.548 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.39% and a year - on - year increase of 13.67%. This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.5 kg, an increase of 0.18 kg from last week [55] Industry - wide - **Breeding Profits**: As of January 16, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.08 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 0.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/head [58] - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [65] - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of January 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of January 15, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.64 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [69] - **Feed**: As of January 15, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,204.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,363.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.96 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of January 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 906.44, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. In December 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.39% month - on - month and increased by 69.09% year - on - year [74][77][83] - **CPI**: As of December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [88] Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the third week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points, with the operating rate fluctuating between 35.33 - 36.10%. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.61%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.48%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week [91] - **Demand**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 24.04%. In November 2025, the national catering income was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [96] Live Pig Stocks - The document shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [100]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 玉米类市场周报 现货市场偏强支撑 玉米期价继续收涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收涨。主力2603合约收盘价为2281元/吨，较上周+18元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：USDA月度供需报告显示，2025/26年度美玉米单产从之前的186蒲式耳/英亩上调至 186.5蒲式耳/英亩，产量预估上调至170.21亿蒲式耳，高于分析师预估区间的上沿，报告整体偏 空。也使得美玉米价格大幅回落。国内方面，东北产区基层售粮进度同比偏快，传统售粮窗口期 缩短，但未出现规模性上量，调节性储备玉米尚未落地，中储粮销售等投放持续加码，对市场供 应有所补充，用粮企业利润不佳，持续提价收粮动力不足，仅区域性行情偏强运行。华北黄淮产 区基层种植户惜售心理尚未松动，深加工企业厂门到货量整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,550 - 12,500 in the short - term [7] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained high. The strong demand for raw material butadiene and rumors of some export deals have driven up production costs significantly. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to obvious differences in negotiations. Inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees. Although short - term production profits have been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply - side production cuts yet. Downstream terminals lack the willingness to actively stock up at high prices, and inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to remain high [8] - With the gradual stabilization of the production schedules of overhauled enterprises this week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production schedule of the devices is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to control inventory [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,550 - 12,500 in the short - term [7] - Market review: This week, the butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export deals, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12,100 - 12,300 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Domestic butadiene rubber supply remains high. The cost has increased significantly, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong. Inventories of production and trading enterprises have increased. There are no signs of supply - side production cuts, and downstream terminals lack the willingness to stock up. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased, with semi - steel tire production expected to be stable and all - steel tire production still under control [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [12] - As of January 16, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 60 [19] - As of January 16, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,530 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [22] 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of January 15, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - As of January 15, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - As of January 15, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 556.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 720 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, a decrease of 1.89% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week [33] 3.3.2 Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [36] - As of January 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.68%, an increase of 0.53% from last week [36] - As of January 15, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 721 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton from last week [39] - As of January 16, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,940 tons, an increase of 1,820 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,900 tons, an increase of 550 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from last week [43] 3.3.3 Downstream - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [46] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [49]

免责声明 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2026/1/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1421.8 | 1202.700 | | -0.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | +19.70↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2604-EC2606价差 -25.50↓ EC2604-EC2608价差 | -219.10 | | | -322.20 | -20.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 753.69 | +27.80↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 40832 | 788↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 160.56↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1956.39 | | | 1,323.98 | 73.86↑ | | | 1,227.97 SCFI（综合指数）（周） 8.93↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1656.32 | | | | 0.00↑ | | 现 ...

国债期货日报 2026/1/15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.035 | 0.11% T主力成交量 | 84852 | 7847↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.760 | 0.09% TF主力成交量 | 72208 | 11622↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.376 | 0.04% TS主力成交量 | 38533 | 8692↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.190 | -0.08% TL主力成交量 | 102913 | -54372↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.16 | -0.05↓ T03-TL03价差 | -3.16 | 0.18↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.09 | +0.02↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.27 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | -0.01↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5.66 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A股市场目前积极因素较多，2025年中国贸易顺差金额创新高，净出口预计支撑2025年GDP；美联储降息预期下调推动美元指数走强，但人民币在出口企业结汇需求和经济复苏预期下处于升值通道，汇率强势支撑一季度宽货币预期，股市向汇市逐步收敛；沪深北交易所提高融资保证金比例对市场短期有降温效果，但对春季行情持续演绎整体影响较小；因今年春节时间靠后，市场提前交易3月初两会政策预期，A股春季行情明显前置 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF主力合约（2603）最新4746.6，环比+13.6↑；IF次主力合约（2601）最新4752.0，环比+15.0↑ - IH主力合约（2603）3108.0，环比 -7.6↓；IH次主力合约（2601）3104.6，环比 -7.4↓ - IC主力合约（2603）8206.8，环比+31.6↑；IC次主力合约（2601）8217.4，环比+11.4↑ - IM主力合约（2603）8195.4，环比+37.2↑；IM次主力合约（2601）8254.8，环比+24.8↑ - IF - IH当月合约价差1647.4，环比+18.8↑；IC - IF当月合约价差3465.4，环比 -18.0↓等多种价差数据 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF前20名净持仓 -42,952.00，环比+1896.0↑；IH前20名净持仓 -17,364.00，环比+1240.0↑ - IC前20名净持仓 -35,402.00，环比 -1814.0↓；IM前20名净持仓 -51,836.00，环比 -303.0↓ [2] 3.3 Spot Price - 沪深300 4751.43，环比+9.5↑；IF主力合约基差 -4.8，环比 -2.9↓ - 上证50 3,105.6，环比 -6.5↓；IH主力合约基差 2.4，环比+0.5↑ - 中证500 8,223.3，环比 -4.4↓；IC主力合约基差 -16.5，环比+13.4↑ - 中证1000 8,240.8，环比 -16.4↓；IM主力合约基差 -45.4，环比+55.8↑ [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）29,384.94，环比 -10483.68↓；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）26,982.31，环比+152.38↑ - 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）4636.33，环比+426.97↑；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） -99.0，环比+10793.0等数据 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - 全部A股 4.30，环比 -1.40↓；技术面 4.10，环比 -0.90↓；资金面 4.60，环比 -1.70↓ [2] 3.6 Industry News - 1月14日海关总署数据，中国2025年12月出口（以人民币计价）同比增5.2%，前值增5.7%；进口增4.4%，前值增1.7%；贸易顺差8087.7亿元，前值7925.8亿元；出口（以美元计价）同比增6.6%，前值增5.9%；进口增5.7%，前值增1.9%；贸易顺差1141.4亿美元，前值1116.8亿美元 - 截至1月13日，A股超140家公司发布2025年业绩预告或快报，63家公司业绩预增，5家公司预告扭亏，72家公司净利润逾1亿元，22家净利润在10亿元以上 - 经证监会批准，沪深北交易所调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%，仅限于新开融资合约 [2]