瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.16」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 3 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2230-2290元/吨，广东价 格波动在2210-2250/吨。内地甲醇价格延续走跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1830- 1838元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2105-2118元/吨。虽周内西北烯烃外采，港口价格走高 利好下，但基于企业高库存及下游弱需求压制下，市场延续疲软。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量减少。 本周内地企业库存小幅增加，港口库存大幅去库，主要基于卸货总量不大，江苏沿江主流库区提 货尚可，江浙其他社会库提货表现较为一般，虽浙江仍有新增终端停车，但卸货较少背景下库存 明显下降。尽管港口甲醇库存下降，但总量仍处较高水平，短期关注外轮卸货速度及提货量变动。 需求方面，浙江兴兴MTO ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the consumer side. The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.01%. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 5.78% week - on - week as of January 14, 2026, while it increased by 35% year - on - year. The jujube has entered the peak stocking period, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase goods has increased. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading prompts include spot price and consumer side - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.01% - As of January 14, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 35% - The jujube has entered the peak stocking period, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase goods has increased. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [10] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The price of Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.01% [12] - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 19,483 lots [13] - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,271 [18] - As of this week, the price difference between Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and 2609 contract was - 235 yuan/ton [21] - As of this week, the basis between Hebei ash jujube spot price and the main contract of jujube futures was 595 yuan/ton [24] - As of January 16, 2026, the purchase price of Aksu jujube was 5.15 yuan/kg, Alar jujube was 5.65 yuan/kg, and Kashgar jujube was 6.5 yuan/kg - As of January 16, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade ash jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of special - grade ash jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.47 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.47 yuan/kg [28][35] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of January 14, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 35%; the jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [39][43] - Demand side: In November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kg, the export amount was 53,004,642 yuan, the export average price was 14,983.36 yuan/ton, the export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export was 29,291,188 kg, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50%; the BOCE Xinjiang jujube good brand trading was inactive this week [47][52] 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Option market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujube this week is mentioned, but specific data is not given - Futures - stock correlation: The price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [55]

多空分歧供需暂稳，锂价高位波动放大 研究员:陈思嘉 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 碳酸锂市场周报 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 「 期现市场情况」 期价震荡走强 图1、碳酸锂主力合约收盘及持仓量 图2、碳酸锂跨期套利 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 170000 190000 2025/1/17 2025/3/17 2025/5/17 2025/7/17 2025/9/17 2025/11/17 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 碳酸锂主力合约收盘价及持仓量 800000 持仓量 碳酸锂主连 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2025-12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The global and Canadian canola supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which restricts prices. However, the improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports. There are also positive news from US biodiesel, and the supply side has continued to cut production this month with a significant increase in palm oil exports in the first half of the month. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and canola oil is in a destocking mode, supporting prices. But the arrival of Australian canola and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations will increase long - term supply pressure. The short - term price fluctuations are intensifying, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade negotiations [6]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures continued to decline. The USDA monthly supply - demand report is bearish, dragging down US soybeans. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China is a recent focus [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,063 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The global 2025/26 canola production is expected to be 95.172 million tons, with an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year. Canada's 2025/26 canola production is 22 million tons, an increase of 2.761 million tons year - on - year. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports, and there are positive factors such as US biodiesel news. In China, oil mills are shut down, and canola oil is destocking, but future supply pressure may increase [6]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA report is bearish for soybeans, but US soybean crushing in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation and fluctuates with soybean meal [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices and Positions**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 269,628 lots, an increase of 24,507 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 917,639 lots, an increase of 108,294 lots from last week [12]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 6,415, compared with - 10,917 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 240,846, compared with - 107,343 last week, with an increase in net short positions [18]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 2,142, and those of canola meal were 84 [24]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,950 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 887 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 195 yuan/ton [31][37]. - **Futures Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 53 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 68 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - **Futures - Spot Ratios**: The ratio of the 05 canola oil - canola meal contract was 4.02, and the average spot price ratio was 3.95 [47]. - **Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,047 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 389 yuan/ton, also with narrow fluctuations this week [56]. - **Price Spreads between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 472 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread was 770 yuan/ton [62] 3. Industry Chain Situation **Rapeseed** - **Supply - side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [66]. - **Imported Pressing Profit**: As of January 15, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,202 yuan/ton [70]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the second week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0% [74]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total rapeseed import volume was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72% [78] **Canola Oil** - **Supply - side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 295,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.64%. In November 2025, the total canola oil import volume was 1.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons compared with the same period last year [82]. - **Demand - side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 605.7 billion yuan [86]. - **Demand - side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 55,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [90] **Canola Meal** - **Supply - side Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week [94]. - **Supply - side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total canola meal import volume was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96% [98]. - **Demand - side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.9779 million tons [102] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of January 16, this week, canola meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 25.54%, basically the same as last week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [106]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will face pressure and adjust in the short - term. It is expected to be adjusted at a high level in the short - term, with attention to the MA10 support, in the range of 39 - 42 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose first and then pulled back. The weekly gain was + 14.95%, and the amplitude was 25.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 405,240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates, and cut the monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year. The US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [7]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. However, most smelting enterprises still have low raw material inventories and are operating at a loss. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In addition, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window has opened, increasing import pressure [7]. - **Demand**: Recently, the rise in tin prices has led to a decline in downstream procurement demand, a significant increase in inventory, and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [7]. - **Technical - level**: With the reduction in positions and price adjustment, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there may be an adjustment [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 405,240 yuan/ton, up 52,330 yuan/ton from January 9, a rise of 14.83%. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 52,031 US dollars/ton, up 8,281 US dollars/ton from January 9, a rise of 18.93% [9][12]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.87, an increase of 0.33 from January 9. As of January 14, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.67, a decrease of 0.32 from January 8 [16]. - **Position Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 115,615 lots, an increase of 9,920 lots from January 9, a growth rate of 9.39%. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 3,681 lots, a decrease of 2,310 lots from December 22, 2025 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin production was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative refined tin production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [26][27]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 16, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 15.38%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 9.52% [32]. - **Refined Tin Imports**: As of January 15, 2026, the profit and loss of tin imports was 9,027.98 yuan/ton, a rise of 9,460.69 yuan/ton from January 9. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [37][38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,925 tons, an increase of 520 tons from January 8, a growth rate of 9.62%. As of January 16, 2026, the total tin inventory was 9,549 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons from last week, a growth rate of 37.69%. The tin futures inventory was 9,462 tons, an increase of 3,033 tons from January 9, a growth rate of 47.18% [41]. - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On January 15, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,837.3, a rise of 401.2 from January 8, a growth rate of 5.4% [44]. - **Domestic Electronic Industry Output**: From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 43,184 million pieces, an increase of 3,657.072 million pieces compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 9.25% [44]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Exports**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October 2025, a decline of 9.09%. The tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons from October, a decline of 33.79% [47].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 沪铜市场周报 淡季影响需求谨慎，沪铜或将有所承压 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.63%，振幅5.51%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价100770元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国CPI增速在12月保持稳定，核心CPI略低于预期。特朗普称赞通胀数据，称鲍威尔应该大幅降息。 美联储传声筒：12月CPI不太可能改变当前的观望态度。国内方面，工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、 有色、新材料、汽车、机械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的12家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积极参与行业规则 制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下探，矿紧对铜价的成本支撑力度仍在。 供给端，受制于原料供给紧张，25年底产量仅小幅增加，往后看26年初产量亦大体持稳，国内供给量维持相对充足状态。 需求端，淡季影响 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were mixed, with commodity sentiment driving the rubber price to rise and then回调. The offer center of the imported rubber market moved up, but the factory procurement sentiment was average. The futures market maintained a relatively strong oscillation pattern, and the domestic spot price slightly followed the rise of the futures market. The downstream procurement willingness was relatively weak, mainly for appropriate rigid - demand replenishment, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The domestic natural rubber main production areas are in the off - season, while the Thai production area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The arrival and warehousing at Qingdao Port show a seasonal decline trend, with the overall warehousing volume decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand has improved, increasing the overall outbound volume [7]. - In terms of demand, this week, as the production arrangements of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production arrangement is expected to remain basically stable; full - steel tire enterprises still have production control phenomena to control inventory [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market fundamentals were mixed, and the rubber price rose and then回调. The offer center of imported rubber moved up, and the futures market was relatively strong. The domestic spot price slightly followed the rise, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, with light transactions [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic production areas are in the off - season, and Thailand is in the peak season. Qingdao Port inventory is accumulating, but the arrival and warehousing are decreasing seasonally. The downstream rigid demand has improved, and the tire enterprise operating rate has increased [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,700 - 13,250 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.22%; the main contract price of No. 20 rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific data analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber [13][15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of January 16, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 30, and the spread between No. 20 rubber 2 - 3 was - 35 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; No. 20 rubber warehouse receipts were 57,758 tons, an increase of 806 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 15, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 15, the No. 20 rubber basis was 535 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of January 16, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 12 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are in the off - season [41][44]. - **Import**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [50]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [54]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [60]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures showed a pattern of rising first and then pulling back, with a weekly increase of 3.25% and an amplitude of 7.32%. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly, with the support level of MA5 to be focused on, and the price range is estimated to be between 24,500 - 25,700 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 3.25% and an amplitude of 7.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,750 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the central bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year, and the US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for purchasing domestic ores has intensified, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and it is expected that production will continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other fields have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level. Technically, the position has increased and the price is strong, with a strong bullish atmosphere, breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Price Changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton or 3.25% compared with January 9, 2026. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,314.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 179.5 US dollars/ton or 5.73% compared with January 9, 2026 [7]. - **Net Position Adjustment**: As of January 16, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was adjusted. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 252,985 lots, an increase of 34,932 lots or 16.02% compared with January 9, 2026 [13]. - **Price Spreads**: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 825 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,185 yuan/ton compared with January 9, 2026. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 7,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 660 yuan/ton compared with January 9, 2026 [18]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton or 3.33% compared with January 9, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of January 15, 2026, the price difference between the near - month and 3 - month contracts of LME zinc was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.95 US dollars/ton compared with January 8, 2026 [23]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons or 1.2% compared with January 8, 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 76,311 tons, an increase of 2,459 tons or 3.33% compared with last week. As of January 15, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 106,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 6.09% compared with January 8, 2026 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Zinc Ore Production and Import**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Global Refined Zinc Supply Shortage**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc shortage was 600 tons, compared with a shortage of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, in September 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 35,700 tons [37][38]. - **Expected Decline in Refined Zinc Production**: In November 2025, the zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41]. - **Significant Increase in Refined Zinc Exports**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Galvanized Sheet (Strip) Exports Stabilized and Rebounded**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49]. - **Decline in New Housing Starts**: From January to November 2025, the new housing start area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. From January to November 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 117.8591 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55]. - **Decline in Infrastructure Investment Growth Rate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 compared with last month and a decrease of 0.61 compared with the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61]. - **Increase in Refrigerator and Air - Conditioner Production**: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63]. - **Stable and Improving Automobile Production and Sales**: In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The production volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,295,965 units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is mixed with overseas and domestic factors. Domestically, the central bank's "combination punch" supports economic development, while overseas there are concerns about inflation and geopolitical situations. In the industry, it is the consumption off - season for rebar. Rebar maintains low production and low inventory, with apparent demand turning from decline to increase, but overall performance is average. The RB2605 contract is expected to be range - bound, and considering trading in the 3120 - 3200 range with attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of January 16, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3350 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 190.3 million tons (-0.74 million tons) year - on - year (-2.99 million tons) [7]. - Apparent demand turned from decline to increase, with this period's apparent demand at 190.34 million tons (+15.38 million tons) year - on - year (+5.19 million tons) [7]. - Factory inventory decreased while social inventory increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.07 million tons (-0.04 million tons) year - on - year (+12.08 million tons) [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 2.17 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 10.39 - percentage - point decrease from last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest - rate cuts due to inflation concerns, and the Trump administration's policies may increase inflation pressure. The situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support economic development, and there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke showed weakness again. Coke spot prices increased, but futures prices corrected from highs, reducing the expectation of further spot price increases [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract is range - bound, with technical support at the 3100 level. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are relatively stable [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price Movement - This week, the RB2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 82,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,047 tons. The net short position of the top 20 futures contract holders was 28,705 lots, an increase of 231 lots from last week [22]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On January 16, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Iron Ore - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged [32]. - From January 5 - 11, 2026, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.437 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 0.0194 million tons [36]. 3.2 Coking Industry - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased to 71.47% (-0.14%), and the daily average coke production was 50.01 million tons (-0.1 million tons). Coke inventory was 40.61 million tons (-3.56 million tons), and the total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons (+42.87 million tons). The available days of coking coal were 14.4 days (+0.67 days) [40]. 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude - steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The cumulative crude - steel production from January to November was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [44]. - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal production was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0149 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0353 million tons. On January 15, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - material producers was 190.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons from last week and 2.99 million tons from the same period last year [47]. - On January 15, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - material producers was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16% from last week and 0.65% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 72.97%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 17.05 percentage points [50]. - On January 15, the in - factory inventory of rebar at 137 building - material producers was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 0.0527 million tons from last week and an increase of 0.1729 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 0.0523 million tons from last week and a decrease of 0.0521 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 4.3807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0004 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1208 million tons [53]. 4.2 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the new - construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. - From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 16.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 2.7% [56]. 5. Options Market - Due to positive macro - expectations and average industry performance, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.16」 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.57% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.17%/本周变动-0.33BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.35% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.27% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数下 | 本周点评：本周国债期货集体走强，央行开展结构性降 | | | 跌外，其余指数均有不同程度上涨。四期指亦表现分化， | 息将激励并引导商业银行将信贷资源精准投放国家重点 | | | 中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。周一公布的12月通胀数据 | 领域及薄弱环节，实现货币政策"精准滴灌"，并服务 | | | 进一步修复带动市场上行；周三公布的进出口数据显示， | ...