Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA5 support and test the upper 390,000 - yuan mark [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 379,330 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,410 yuan; the 2 - 3 month contract closing price is - 680 yuan, with a change of 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 47,967 dollars/ton, with a change of 2,407 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 42,853 lots, a decrease of 7,782 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 3,845 lots, a decrease of 3,059 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 5,905 tons, an increase of 490 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 115 tons, a decrease of 10 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,245 tons, a decrease of 88 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 380,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 11,650 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 380,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 9,670 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 8,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,580 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 88.01 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58.01 dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 356,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 18,800 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 360,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 18,800 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 8,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The report does not provide new information other than the data in the spot market section. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 241,930 yuan/ton, with a change of 7,040 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, an increase of 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3]. Industry News - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, indicating a relaxation of trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that efforts will be made to achieve new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, future information, and future materials, focusing on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology aims for new breakthroughs in future - related fields. On the fundamental level, the domestic tin ore import supply is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still unstable, and the overall tin ore import volume is at a low level. In the smelting sector, the raw material of tin ore is in short supply, most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, and most enterprises are operating at a loss. It is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted and lack year - on - year growth. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window is approaching to open, increasing the import pressure. On the demand side, the tin price has adjusted at a high level recently, the downstream procurement willingness is relatively strong, the inventory decline is better than expected, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory is stable, and the spot premium has increased. Technically, the position has slightly decreased, the price has adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is strong [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial for the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent slight rebound in egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2990 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 17657 hands, up 2367 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 401 yuan/500 kilograms, down 17 yuan; the futures open interest (active contract) of eggs is 272149 hands, up 1928 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 3 hands, down 2 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.48 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 486 yuan/500 kilograms, up 109 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying - hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), down 2.21; the culled laying - hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), down 13.26; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan/feather, up 0.1 yuan; the new - chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), up 26.53; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan/hen, up 0.1 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan; the culling age of hens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.04 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.71 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7377 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.06 yuan/kg, up 0.29 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.51 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term EB2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The cost of international oil prices has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level, and the downstream operating rate will change differently [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the trading volume was 352,157 lots, a decrease of 155,060 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders was 375,459 lots, an increase of 594 lots; the net long position was - 37,350 lots, a decrease of 3,919 lots; the short position was 412,809 lots, an increase of 4,513 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 7081 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The open interest of the active contract was 242,728 lots, a decrease of 15,148 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 360 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6964 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan. The FOB Korea intermediate price was 895 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 905 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6925, 7270, 7050, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 200, 165, 175, and 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 19.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 399.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 277 cents/gallon, an increase of 2 cents; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 789 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5400, 5405, and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100, 70, and 80 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.92%, an increase of 0.69%. The national inventory of styrene was 162,340 tons, a decrease of 9,420 tons; the inventory in the East China main port was 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 3.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 46.72%, 69.8%, 58.9%, 39%, and 81.68% respectively, with changes of +3.08%, - 0.1%, - 1.5%, +3%, and +1.16% [2]. Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene factory output was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons. As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a decrease of 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 100,600 tons, a decrease of 23.96% from last week [2]. Viewpoint Summary - There are no new plans for shutdown or restart of large - scale domestic styrene plants in the near future. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level. The operating rate of downstream EPS may increase slightly in the short term; the operating rate of the PS industry is expected to decline; the short - term supply of the ABS industry will not change much. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The international oil price has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, signaling a缓和 in trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, aims to drive new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, information, and materials. In the long - term, the transmission process needs to be observed. [2] - In the short term, it is expected that Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 138,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,750 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 18,075 US dollars/ton, an increase of 375 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 119,485 lots, a decrease of 4,663 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 69,516 lots, an increase of 12,055 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 284,562 tons, a decrease of 228 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 39,436 tons, a decrease of 234 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 145,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 145,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,550 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 6,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,100 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.47 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.09 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, a decrease of 134.33 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, a decrease of 12.26 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.84 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, releasing a signal of easing trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that efforts will be made to drive new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, future information, and future materials, focusing on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G. [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology promotes new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, information, and materials. On the fundamental level, the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season, and the planned significant reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year causes concerns about raw material supply. In the smelting end, the output of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; the domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and profit repair, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. On the demand side, the cost of stainless - steel ferronickel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the planned production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory is in an increasing trend, and the market mainly buys on dips, with a high spot premium; the growth of overseas LME inventory has slowed down. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has fallen, with a large divergence between long and short positions. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high, but the agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with lukewarm overall trading atmosphere. The downstream is resistant to high - price goods and mostly adopts a just - in - time procurement strategy. The industrial sector maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1774 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 230,249 lots, down 6,626 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 17,040. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,355 sheets, up 155 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu and Shandong are 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 53 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. FOB Baltic is 367.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 402.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.0222 million tons, up 3,000 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, up 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly this period, with local inventory rising or falling differently. As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 140,000 tons, down 18.60% week - on - week. The departure volume of port goods increases this week, and some ports are loading and leaving. Due to the slow pace of factory goods gathering at ports and quota restrictions, most ports maintain a low level. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3716 million tons, up 0.92% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 2.93% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, with some enterprises having maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and some continuing to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 155 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 170 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 70,162 lots, a decrease of 402 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,451 lots, an increase of 253 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,091 lots, a decrease of 268 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,920 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.09 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.13 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, with no change. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, an increase of 6,630,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.48%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.64%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.28%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.27%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1,140,000 vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This cycle, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remains at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, there is some inventory that has been sold but not picked up, so the overall inventory level has limited changes [2]. - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week [2]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 and 12,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70. The position of the main contract is 95,318, with an increase of 72,576 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,530 tons, with an increase of 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105. The price of Brent crude oil is not clearly stated in terms of change, and the new price is not given in a complete comparison [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 63.87 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.53. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 725 US dollars/ton, with no change. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.75 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25. The price of WTI crude oil is 59.5 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38 [2]. - The butadiene production capacity this week is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene this week is 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.75. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber this week is 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 [2]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber this week is - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 59. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 663 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, in December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [2]. - In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term V2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 4780 and resistance around 5000. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the demand side is weak. The impact of the "rush to export" after the export tax - refund cancellation policy from April needs further observation. PVC capacity utilization is expected to change little. The start - up rate of the chlor - alkali plant in January is generally at a relatively high level. The start - up rate of downstream hard products such as pipes and profiles will decline seasonally before the Spring Festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the trading volume is 1,615,530 lots, down 726,208 lots; the open interest is 1,034,623 lots, down 24,293 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1,063,153 lots, down 17,147 lots; the short positions are 1,150,751 lots, down 2,432 lots; the net long positions are - 87,598 lots, down 14,715 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,627.69 yuan/ton, down 11.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,795 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,641.25 yuan/ton, down 0.62 yuan. The CIF price in China is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 610 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 340 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,665 yuan/ton, up 41.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it is 2,491 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 397 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 428 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.67%, up 1.04 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.71%, up 1.35 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.56%, up 0.27 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 546,300 tons, up 21,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region is 501,800 tons, up 21,200 tons; the inventory in the South China region is 44,500 tons, down 100 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.560662 billion square meters, up 31.2717 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 420.2457 billion yuan, up 304.16 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 24.07%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.64%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.78%, up 2.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.8%, up 2.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 79.67%, up 1.03% month - on - month. From January 3rd to 9th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.08% to 44.02% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.2% to 35.4% month - on - month, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.44% to 30.22% month - on - month. As of January 8th, the social inventory of PVC was 1,114,100 tons, up 3.48% from the previous period. From January 2nd to 8th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5,061 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,004 yuan/ton month - on - month; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC recovered to - 634 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC recovered to - 192 yuan/ton [3]

国债期货日报 2026/1/13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.850 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 54073 | -10308↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.625 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 44516 | -20415↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.330 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 31235 | -6059↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.350 | 0.28% TL主力成交量 | 89373 | -9823↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.13 | -0.03↓ T03-TL03价差 | -3.50 | -0.14↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.07 | -0.02↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.22 | -0.00↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.02 | +0.02↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.52 | ...

降低预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2210-2300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2263 | 0 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -5 | -7 8034 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 830030 | -33561 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -165175 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7655 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓( ...