1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a +0.93% increase at the close. The trading volume increased compared to the previous period, the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. Overseas miners still have a strong willingness to support prices, and the supply trend of domestic mining areas is expected to gradually become clear. Lithium ore may continue to have firm quotes. In terms of supply, raw materials provide a certain degree of cost support for lithium carbonate prices. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and positive policy guidance, supply is expected to show an increasing trend. In terms of imports and exports, the volume of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile may decrease slightly after arrival at the port, so overall, the domestic lithium carbonate supply may increase slightly. In terms of demand, driven by the traditional consumption season, downstream orders and production schedules have been boosted, and the industry maintains a high growth trend. In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 46.02%, a - 1.3294% decrease compared to the previous period. The options market has an advantage in call open interest, and the sentiment in the options market is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly increasing. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double - lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 73,920 yuan/ton, a +1040 yuan increase; the net position of the top 20 was - 162,974 lots, a +11,116 lots increase; the open interest of the main contract was 251,749 lots, a +3109 lots increase; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 40,329 lots, a +20 lots increase [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan decrease; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan decrease; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a - 1090 yuan decrease [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 876 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,285 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 45,880 tons, a +1280 tons increase; the monthly import volume was 21,846.92 tons, a +8001.60 tons increase; the monthly export volume was 368.91 tons, a +2.56 tons increase; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 46%, a - 2% decrease [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly production of power batteries was 139,600 MWh, a +5800 MWh increase; the price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 61,000 yuan/ton, a +2000 yuan increase; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, a +1500 yuan increase; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 123,000 yuan/ton, a +2500 yuan increase; the price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 131,500 yuan/ton, a +3000 yuan increase; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, a +3% increase; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 57%, a +6% increase; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,391,000 vehicles, a +148,000 vehicles increase; the monthly sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a +133,000 vehicles increase; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 45.53%, a +0.54% increase; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 9,620,000 vehicles, a +2,583,000 vehicles increase; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 224,000 vehicles, a - 10,000 vehicles decrease; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1,532,000 vehicles, a +714,000 vehicles increase [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 27.32%, a - 0.26% decrease; the 40 - day average volatility was 41.46%, a +0.12% increase; the total call open interest was 226,551 contracts, a +4802 contracts increase; the total put open interest was 104,264 contracts, a - 738 contracts decrease; the put - call ratio of total open interest was 46.02%, a - 1.3294% decrease; the at - the - money implied volatility was 0.46%, a +0.0077% increase [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Four departments including the Ministry of Commerce decided to implement export license management for pure - electric passenger vehicles. Some enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry may over - inflate pre - sale orders, and third - party intervention and real - time delivery data disclosure are needed. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans to stabilize the growth of the automotive industry, optimize preferential measures for vehicle purchase tax and vehicle and vessel tax for new energy vehicles, and establish an access management system for assisted and autonomous driving. Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing the Growth of the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026, and strengthening resource surveys and explorations of copper, aluminum, lithium, etc. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with different trends in various segments including futures, spot, upstream, and downstream markets. Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as policy, supply - demand balance, and international economic data. Different types of aluminum products (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy) have their own supply - demand characteristics, and the report suggests light - position oscillatory trading in all cases while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 203,858 lots, down 8,862 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,649 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, up 1,775 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83, up 0.04 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,904 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 37 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract position was 292,517 lots, down 13,932 lots [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 20,270 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 90 yuan, down 65 yuan; the main contract position was 11,805 lots, down 28 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,830 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 4.7 dollars/ton, down 2.6 dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price was 2,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 9 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 630 yuan, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the national monthly opening rate was 82.93%, down 1.09 percentage points; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons; the export volume was 18 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume was 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons; the export volume was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the opening rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points; the social inventory was 56.70 million tons, down 3.10 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 53 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The monthly output was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the total built - up production capacity was 126 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.24%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.05%, unchanged; the call - put ratio was 1.17, down 0.0227; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option was slightly decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metal Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, with the US, EU, and Brazil ranking in the top three [2]. - The US August core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased for the third consecutive month [2]. - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 46929.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year [2]. 3.8 Views on Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract shows an oscillatory trend with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the demand will increase slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will be boosted. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply growth will slow down, and the demand will increase. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,154.0, down 4.98%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. With the continuous recovery of mine capacity utilization rate for three weeks and some coal types rebounding, the operating rate of independent coal washing plants continued to rise. The cumulative growth rate of imports has been declining for three consecutive months, and inventories have rebounded for two consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,647.0, down 4.16%. After the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the current hot metal output is 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons, and the hot metal output is fluctuating at a high level. Coke inventories are higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1,154.00 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1,647.00 yuan/ton, down 45.50 yuan. The JM futures contract open interest was 825,807.00 lots, down 80,954.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 50,959.00 lots, down 1,729.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121,941.00 lots, up 15,608.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 5,112.00 lots, up 948.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 85.50 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 143.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 1,690.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,040.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coke at Tianjin Port Grade - 1 was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 116.00 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 18.00 yuan/ton, up 45.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 275,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.107 million tons, up 63,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01%. The raw coal output was 39.0497 million tons, up 0.951 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4.274 million tons, up 0.713 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 194,000 tons, up 4,100 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 4.9685 million tons, down 0.1847 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.5726 million tons, down 0.0354 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9907 million tons, up 0.5866 million tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 0.6304 million tons, down 0.0337 million tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills was 7.9607 million tons, up 0.0573 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 steel mills was 6.6131 million tons, up 0.1664 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.89 days, up 0.15 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills was 11.66 days, up 0.24 days. The import volume of coking coal was 1.01622 million tons, up 0.0555 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.055 million tons, down 0.034 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 4.08938 million tons, up 0.025 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.43%, down 0.44%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton. The output of coke was 4.2597 million tons, up 0.0742 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation (National) - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50%. The crude steel output was 7.73686 million tons, down 0.22896 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil had the highest global economic and trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries (regions), and the US had the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department joint plan aims for the average annual growth of the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry to be around 5% and the average annual growth of the output of ten non - ferrous metals to be around 1.5% from 2025 - 2026. It also emphasizes resource exploration and the innovation of advanced materials [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not passed in the UN Security Council. The UK representative said that the UN will re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The automobile trade - in subsidy policy in Jiangsu Province was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 1115.000 | | -35.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1756.3 | -24.30↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -641.30 | | -3.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | -552.00 | -6.00↓ | | EC合约基差 5.49 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 29314 | | -110.43↓ -3117↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1120.49 | | -134.43↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 921.25 | -272.39↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1114.52 | | -83.69↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | 0.04↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1087.41 | | -32.82↓ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 29, the silicon iron 2511 contract was reported at 5610, down 1.23%. The Ningxia silicon iron spot was reported at 5360, down 90 yuan/ton. With the eight - department issuance of the non - ferrous metals industry growth - stabilization plan, the non - ferrous metals industry is expected to have an average annual added - value growth of about 5% from 2025 - 2026. In terms of supply and demand, production has rebounded rapidly after the previous profit improvement, with neutral inventory levels and short - term cost support. The market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5820, down 0.78%. The Inner Mongolia manganese silicon spot was reported at 5600, down 100 yuan/ton. The adjustment of the automobile trade - in policy in Jiangsu Province has taken place. Fundamentally, production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, with a significant increase in inventory this period. The market should also be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holdings were 490,681 hands, down 10,402 hands; SF futures contract holdings were 323,191 hands, down 15,815 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 63,659 hands, up 4371 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon iron was - 29,445 hands, up 4077 hands [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 32 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 96 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 55,212, down 901; SF warehouse receipts were 17,031, down 342 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5430 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5694 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The SM main contract basis was - 220 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 447.80 million tons, up 20.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 44.18%, down 1.50%; silicon iron enterprise operating rate was 35.33%, up 0.49% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 206,430 tons, down 2345 tons; silicon iron supply was 114,500 tons, up 1400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons; silicon iron manufacturer inventory was 61,460 tons, down 1930 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; silicon iron inventory days of national steel mills was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of the five major steel types was 122,484 tons, up 1058 tons; silicon iron demand of the five major steel types was 19,865.90 tons, up 277.30 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50% [2]. - Crude steel production was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil ranked in the top three, with the US having the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added - value and about 1.5% in the production of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026 [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not adopted by the Security Council. The UK representative said the UN would re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, suspending the automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/9/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,370.00 | -100.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,266.00 | +84.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 213,792.0 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 股指期货全景日报 2025/9/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2512） | 最新 4604.6 | 环比 数据指标 +69.4↑ IF次主力合约（2510） | 最新 4623.6 | 环比 +67.8↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing high supply pressure due to a high inventory of laying hens, new egg - laying hens from previous replenishments, and an increase in egg - laying rates as the temperature drops. Although there was a demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, with the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, and the market is slowing down, causing the spot price to decline slightly. The high - capacity pressure persists, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient, resulting in a price decline again. The trading strategy is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Strategy**: The trading strategy for eggs is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3036 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 76 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High supply pressure persists. Although there was a short - term demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, as the pre - holiday stocking ends, the market slows down, and the spot price declines slightly, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the futures price [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed lower. The position volume was 315,276 lots, a decrease of 82,779 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 20,779, with a slight increase in net short positions compared to last week's - 18,354 [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 26 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3619 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 127 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 583 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at - 318 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 5.05 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [39]. - **Laying - hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national culling age of hens was 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.9 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2960 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was + 0.17 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 9.34 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Monthly Egg Exports**: In August 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,121.03 tons, an increase of 1281.43 tons compared to the same period last year (an increase of 10.82%), and an increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [62]. 3.4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Only a chart of price - to - earnings ratio changes was provided, but no specific analysis content [64].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议：操作上，建议郑枣2601合约短期观望。 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格大涨，周度涨幅约5.76%。 行情展望：主产区灰枣处于上糖期，部分头茬果开始皱皮吊干，从天气预警看 近期未见明显降雨，目前枣果品质优于去年同期水平。销区市场，现货市场购 销氛围一般，下游刚需采购为主。据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，截止2025年9月25日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在 9203吨，较上周减少44吨，环比减少0.48%，同比增加84.80%，样本点库存小幅 下降。当前时间节点处于淡季向旺季过渡，关注消费及新季灰枣品种情况。 「 期现市场情况」 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 来源：郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 本周郑枣2601合约价格大涨，周 ...