白糖产业日报 2025-09-18 国累计销售食糖999.98万吨，同比增加113.88万吨，累计销糖率89.59%，同比加快0.65个百分点。工业库 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 存116.23万吨，同比增加6.01万吨。目前中秋备货基本结束，北方糖厂即将开榨，短期无明显利好驱动， 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 预计低位震荡。操作上，建议观望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1203.5, down 2.11%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. With the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market sentiment declined and commodities corrected. Coking coal mines' capacity utilization has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal prices have rebounded, and the capacity utilization of independent coal washing plants has increased. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On September 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1709.0, down 1.10%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. In August, China's rebar production was 1541.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative production from January to August was 12867.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.55 million tons, an increase of 11.71 million tons. After the impact of steel mill production control for the parade faded, the hot metal output returned to the previous level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1203.50元/吨，环比下降29.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1709.00元/吨，环比下降25.50元。JM期货合约持仓量为943381.00手，环比下降33552.00手；J期货合约持仓量为52987.00手，环比下降131.00手。焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 121141.00手，环比下降445.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 4538.00手，环比增加69.00手。JM5 - 1月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加12.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为139.00元/吨，环比增加10.00元。焦煤仓单为200.00张，环比下降400.00张；焦炭仓单为1550.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，环比上涨9.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比无变化。俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为149.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比无变化。京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1630.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比无变化。京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，环比上涨130.00元；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比无变化。山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1270.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1080.00元/吨，环比无变化。JM主力合约基差为66.50元/吨，环比增加29.50元；J主力合约基差为11.00元/吨，环比增加25.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为26.80万吨，环比增加1.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤周库存为304.40万吨，环比增加23.80万吨。314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比增加0.02个百分点；原煤月产量为39049.70万吨，环比增加951.00万吨。煤及褐煤月进口量为4274.00万吨，环比增加713.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.00万吨，环比增加4.40万吨。16个港口进口焦煤周库存为466.35万吨，环比增加1.58万吨；18个港口焦炭周库存为258.31万吨，环比下降2.45万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周库存为883.54万吨，环比下降36.51万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭周库存为67.84万吨，环比增加1.33万吨。全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为793.73万吨，环比下降2.03万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭周库存为633.29万吨，环比增加9.58万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.81天，环比下降0.28天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，环比下降0.42天 [2]. Industry Situation - 炼焦煤月进口量为962.30万吨，环比增加53.11万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为55.00万吨，环比下降34.00万吨。炼焦煤月产量为4089.38万吨，环比增加25.00万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为75.92%，环比增加2.78个百分点。独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为35.00元/吨，环比下降29.00元；焦炭月产量为4259.70万吨，环比增加74.20万吨 [2]. Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.85%，环比增加3.47个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.20%，环比增加4.43个百分点。粗钢月产量为7736.86万吨，环比下降228.96万吨 [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points at its Wednesday meeting, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month hiatus. The latest dot - plot predicts two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, one more than the June forecast [2]. - On September 16, the First Plenary Meeting of the Third - Session Council of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Tangshan, Hebei. The meeting reviewed and passed several proposals, including the Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Jointly Resisting "Involution - style" Competition, the Proposal on Establishing a Coordination Working Group for Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition in the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry, and the Proposal on Establishing a Green - Low - Carbon Specialized Committee and an Artificial - Intelligence Specialized Committee of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association [2]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's rebar production in August was 1541.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative production from January to August was 12867.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the A - share major indices closed generally lower. Although the economic data in August was under pressure, the financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. The RMB was under short - term pressure due to Powell's hawkish remarks, but the dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, which would reduce the RMB depreciation pressure and provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped from the previous level to 4487.2, a decrease of 61.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed a downward trend. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread decreased by 20.6 to 1576.4 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Most of the seasonal - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, except for the IH seasonal - monthly spread which increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Position Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 3206 to - 24,119 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 dropped by 52.9 to 4498.11 [2]. - **Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume increased by 7637.19 billion yuan to 31,666.43 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by 127.92 billion yuan to 24,054.44 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased slightly, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased while the maturity volume decreased [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, the Shibor increased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and other indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital aspects all showed a weakening trend in the Wind market strength - weakness analysis [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and after a 9 - month pause. The A - share major indices closed generally lower, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic economic data in August was under pressure, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 本报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,970.00 | -20.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,756.00 | -10.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 555,005.00 | +8635.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 397,675.00 | +6551.00↑ | | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 72,880.00 | -760.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -174,775.00 | +415.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 281,411.00 | -13213.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -300.00 | 0.00 | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 39,234.00 | +410.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 73,450.00 | +300.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 71,200.00 | +300.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 570.00 | +1060.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 886.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） | 7,125.00 | - ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 800.00 | -4.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 533,529 | -936↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 21.5 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -33064 | +385↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,700.00 | -100.00↓ ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/9/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,785.00 | -125.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,931.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -10.00 250,178.00 | +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +112657.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -13.00 306,866.00 | +1.00↑ -18 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report Core View - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract increased in position and corrected. The macro - aspect shows that the deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that efforts will be made to promote strategic and professional restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rise. Overall, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some mainstream positions took profit, so the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red column turns green. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term trading within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the position volume was 1,999,684 lots, up 36,313 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 224,471 lots, up 16,787 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 57 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 255,222 tons, down 14,137 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, up 0.2415 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3361 million tons, up 0.1007 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, down 1.20 percentage points. The mill inventory of sample steel mills was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on September 18, the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; social inventory was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons; total inventory was 6.5028 million tons, down 35,800 tons; apparent demand was 2.1003 million tons, up 119,600 tons. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively bullish for the cotton market. Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 28,006 lots, an increase of 6,618 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 460 lots, a decrease of 70 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 502,082 lots, an increase of 10,790 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 18,718 lots, a decrease of 884 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,438 sheets, a decrease of 177 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 73 sheets, a decrease of 14 sheets. [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,319 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,795 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,427 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, an increase of 13 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 50 thousand tons, an increase of 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110 thousand tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 1,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.170 thousand tons, a decrease of 70.810 thousand tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73.5 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 44,419.8 thousand US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 11.13%, a decrease of 0.84%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 11.12%, a decrease of 0.84%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.93%, an increase of 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.16%, an increase of 0.04%. [2] Industry News - National commercial inventory is in a downward trend. As of September 12, 2025, total cotton commercial inventory is 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143.8 thousand tons (a decrease of 10.16%) from last week. - ICE cotton futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the December contract down 0.43 cents, or 0.64%, at 67.25 cents per pound. - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 183 thousand tons; global ending inventory is expected to be 15.924 million tons, a decrease of 168 thousand tons. [2] View Summary - The 2025/26 global cotton output and consumption are expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market. - Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. [2]

沪铅产业日报 2025-09-18 | | | 整体库存不变。从目前库存数据来看，需求尚未有效拉动库存去化。但整体来说有望逐步强化，对铅价形 成一定支撑。综上所述，沪铅整体供应有望平稳，需求小幅恢复，美联储宣布降息25基点，下个月仍有预 期继续下调，铅价建议逢低布局多单。 | 提示关注 | 今日暂无消息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | | | | 研究员: | | 黄闻杰 | 期货从业资格号F03142112 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指 ...