主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5253 | -32 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 432294 | -16630 7403 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 5038 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -60824 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 2965 | 1563 | | | | 现货市场 | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term logic of the overall rise of precious metals remains unchanged. However, due to the recent continuous and rapid price increase and significant market fluctuations, silver prices may deviate significantly from fundamental factors. There is a need to be vigilant against the risk of technical corrections. This week, opportunities for the repair of the gold - silver ratio can be focused on. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $4500 per ounce and support at $4300 per ounce. The London silver is expected to have resistance at $80 per ounce and support at $70 per ounce [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1007.180 yuan per gram, a decrease of 9.1 yuan. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 18201 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 107 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 166022 hands, a decrease of 14690 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 5670 hands, a decrease of 3274 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 345222 hands, an increase of 120634 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 1442771 hands, an increase of 457513 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 97704 kilograms, an increase of 12 kilograms. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 796739 kilograms, a decrease of 22692 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1004.00 yuan, a decrease of 3.00 yuan. The spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19100.00 yuan, an increase of 623.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 899.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.18 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 730.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 6.12 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holding of SPDR gold ETF is 1071.13 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons. The holding of SLV silver ETF is 16390.56 tons, a decrease of 56.41 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 233978.00 contracts, an increase of 10092.00 contracts. The non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC is 36352.00 contracts, a decrease of 8357.00 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.07 tons, an increase of 86.24 tons. The total supply of silver in the year is 32056.00 tons, an increase of 482.00 tons. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1257.90 tons, an increase of 174.15 tons. The total demand for silver in the year is 35716.00 tons, a decrease of 491.00 tons [1] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03, an increase of 0.12. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.91, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 13.60, an increase of 0.13. The CBOE gold volatility index is 25.78, an increase of 1.97. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 0.00, unchanged. The gold - silver ratio is 0.00, unchanged [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan". Trump said that both Zelensky and Russian President Putin hope to reach a peace agreement, and Putin is "serious" about promoting peace. A "very strong" security agreement will be reached between the US and Ukraine, and there is no deadline for relevant negotiations. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [1] 3.6 Market Performance and Reasons - The intraday fluctuations in the precious metals market significantly increased today. In the early trading session, the Shanghai silver main contract once hit the daily limit, but then due to the pressure of long - position profit - taking, the prices of gold and silver quickly fell in the afternoon, and the intraday gains were completely erased. Previously, due to the continuous tightness of physical inventories, the short - squeeze sentiment in the silver market continued, the long - position atmosphere was strong, and some short - positions were forced to exit, further pushing up the silver price. However, the accumulated profit - taking positions also increased the risk of correction, and today's intraday adjustment can be regarded as the concentrated release of this risk [1] 3.7 Macro - Level Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the US reached a two - year high, and the core PCE price index met expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has eased. Weak employment data, stable inflation, and the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain loose liquidity and may even expand its balance sheet jointly strengthen the macro - logic of a looser monetary policy. In this environment, the US dollar index is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1] 3.8 Key Focus Points - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, pay attention to the year - on - year change of the US FHFA housing price index. On January 1, 2026, at 21:45, pay attention to the US Markit manufacturing PMI [1]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9040 | -6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2387 | -4 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 43 191383 | 11 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日, ...

爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存小幅下降，市场逢回调采买增加，现货升水高位；海外LM 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 E库存延续增长。技术面，成交放量持仓高位，多空分歧增大。观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整，关注M A5支撑，上方13关口阻力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 125710 | -10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state, with poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is favorable for the forward price. However, the New Year's Day stocking has started, and the demand has rebounded slightly due to the low temperature in the north. The slaughter and food processing have slightly replenished their inventories, boosting the spot price to rise from the low level. The current in - production inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the elimination of old hens has slowed down slightly. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The near - month contract may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term, and the far - month contract is expected to perform better than the near - month contract under the expectation of declining production capacity. One can try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2941 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 16 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 40491 hands, an increase of 4500 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 498 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 7 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 141967 hands, a decrease of 11686 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.1 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.13 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 157 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 142 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.21; the national eliminated laying hen index is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, unchanged; the national new chick index is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.11 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan; the age of eliminated chickens is 500 days, a decrease of 10 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.24 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.54 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, an increase of 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7147 tons, an increase of 124 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.98 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.18 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2]

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2161 | 0 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 9 | -5 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 773858 | -8076 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -130075 | 16517 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 6648 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2130 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1845 | -20 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 285 | 1 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12910 | -45 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | 0 -7950 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -15276 | -121 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 84501 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 47462 | -426 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9100 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 290 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.21 | -0.08 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 12840.49 | 2900.8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will undergo a moderately strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at 23000 yuan/ton and the upper resistance at 23600 yuan/ton. Upstream, zinc ore imports are declining, domestic refinery raw material winter reserves have started, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and a contraction in refinery profits, with expected production decline. The export window may close again due to the rebound of the Shanghai-London ratio. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automobile sector has some policy - supported highlights. The domestic inventory continues to decline, while LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23255 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3086.5 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 197429 lots, down 2988 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 1795 lots, up 2441 lots. - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 72963 tons, down 3054 tons; LME inventory is 106875 tons, up 7900 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23440 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23490 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 185 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 28.26 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20070 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. c. Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35700 tons, a decrease of 14700 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20300 tons, a decrease of 27600 tons. - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc ore production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31000 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 665000 tons, up 40000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 340900 tons, down 164500 tons [3]. d. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 18836.76 tons, down 3840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8518.67 tons, up 6040.84 tons. - Social zinc inventory is 111400 tons, down 7800 tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 534567000 square meters, up 43953100 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 348610000 square meters, up 37321200 square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. f. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 17.68%, up 0.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 17.69%, up 0.69%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.28%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.69%, down 0.07% [3]. g. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months. The profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing has accelerated, mainly due to the decline in industrial production and profit margins [3].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11600 | -35 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 59203 | -5302 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11300 | 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11300 | 200 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11350 | 东(日,元/吨) 200 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11550 | 250 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -285 | -150 东(日,元/吨) | | | | 上游情况 ...