1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by the cost of the concentrate due to the negative TC index of copper ore and the firm offer of concentrate. Supply is constrained by the tight supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate, and macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut keep the copper price in a high - level range. However, the strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, resulting in a light trading volume in the spot market. The peak season has not yet boosted demand, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.38, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0514, indicating a bullish sentiment and a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows both lines below the 0 - axis with an expanding green bar. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,620 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,966.50 dollars/ton, down 29.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 70 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 127,860 lots, down 19,604 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,293 lots, down 4,846 lots. LME copper inventory was 150,950 tons, down 1,675 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,054 tons, up 12,203 tons. The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,291 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,065 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 56 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.50 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 370 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 71.13 dollars/ton, down 11.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 41.30 dollars/kiloton, down 0.45 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 70,910 yuan/metal ton, down 620 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 71,610 yuan/metal ton, down 620 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,790 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.53%, up 1.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.30%, up 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 14.97%, up 0.0090 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.38, up 0.0514 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October was over 90%. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and introduce a series of policy documents. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% [2].

现货升水维持200元/吨，国内库存增加。LME库存回升，且现货升水大幅下调。技术面，持仓增量价格下 跌，多空交投分歧，关注MA60支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪锡产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 269100 | -3440 10月-11月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -360 | -10 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 34390 | -360 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 22824 | -183 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -897 | 1112 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2645 | 0 ...

沪锌产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22035 | -245 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -10 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2943 | -41.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 229818 | 13547 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -12728 | -2 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 54241 | 1521 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 94649 | 7617 LME库存(日,吨) | 48975 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22010 | -150 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21790 | -230 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 95 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 24.36 | -16.97 | | | 昆明 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint On Thursday, the HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, Japan's Finance Minister Kato Shigekatsu rejected the US's call to increase pressure on Russia and the proposal to impose higher tariffs on China and India. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to rise with a capacity utilization rate of 83.4%; demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. Overall, the recent rebound in steel prices affected terminal demand, hot - rolled coil production remained high, and the expectation of loose supply increased. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. Operationally, short on rebounds with a stop - loss reference of 3400, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; HC main contract open interest was 1,412,324 lots, up 20,862 lots; HC contract top 20 net positions were - 117,198 lots, up 9,211 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread was 43 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 47,049 tons, down 13,892 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - In the spot market, prices in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin for 4.75 hot - rolled coils remained unchanged. HC main contract basis was 96 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.4947 million tons, up 241,500 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.3361 million tons, up 100,700 tons; Hebei billet inventory was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, up 4.43 percentage points; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, up 13,500 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 83.40%, up 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 813,000 tons, up 4,200 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 2.9669 million tons, up 42,500 tons; domestic crude steel production was 7.737 million tons, down 229,000 tons; steel net exports were 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production was 2.8154 million vehicles, up 224,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.8566 million vehicles, up 263,200 vehicles; air - conditioner production was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; household refrigerator production was 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; household washing machine production was 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - On September 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual hot - rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, up 13,500 tons; factory inventory was 813,000 tons, up 4,200 tons; social inventory was 2.9669 million tons, up 42,500 tons; total inventory was 3.7799 million tons, up 46,700 tons; apparent demand was 3.2182 million tons, down 43,400 tons week - on - week [2]. - In August 2025, China exported 5.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, cumulative exports were 48.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2].

红枣产业日报 2025-09-18 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10620 | -195 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 146461 | 2952 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -1558 | 2514 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8661 | -210 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 58 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term explicit arrival volume of foreign vessels at ports remains at a relatively high level. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to increase next week, and the specific increase amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. - After the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant and the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing plant, the olefin operating rate increased this week. With the expected restart of the Ningxia Baofeng Phase III and Shenhua Xinjiang olefin plants next week, the industry operating rate may continue to rise. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2346 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 39 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. - The main contract's open interest of methanol is 942,904 lots, an increase of 106,296 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 168,632 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 10,207, a decrease of 574 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 106 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 294 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.39 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 48.39 tons, an increase of 2.31 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 2.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.04 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.58%, a decrease of 0.26% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, an increase of 5.4%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.86%, an increase of 0.03%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 83.11%, a decrease of 1.13%; the operating rate of MTBE is 61.69%, a decrease of 0.53%. - The operating rate of olefins is 81.57%, a decrease of 3.15%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.3%, an increase of 0.7%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.38%, a decrease of 0.8%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.25%, an increase of 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.24%, an increase of 0.04% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises is 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. - As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. East China shows de - stocking, and South China shows inventory accumulation. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 84.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.23% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply, increasing nickel resource supply costs. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, production is stable with some increases and new capacity plans, driving a slight increase in refined nickel output. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production due to improved profits, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, with stable spot premiums and increasing domestic and LME inventories. Technically, with reduced positions, prices are adjusted, and trading is cautious, showing a wide - range oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 55,044 lots, down 3,785 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,890 lots, down 1,453 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, up 2,034 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,866 tons, down 275 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) and bonded - warehouse (warrant) prices are both 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,760 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.18 dollars/ton, down 0.55 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.4 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts this year. The September statement showed changes in the economic outlook compared to the July meeting: it recognized the slowdown in employment growth, mentioned a slight increase in the unemployment rate while still keeping it low, removed the statement that "labor - market conditions remain robust", and judged that the downward risk of employment has increased. It also thought that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut was not strong, and the downward employment trend has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management - type rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point cut did not receive wide support [2]

统均线呈现空头排列，整体偏空震荡运行。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12830 | -170 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 98989 | 4913 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 428 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -27198 | -1011 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the precious metals market was under significant pressure and retraced. After the interest rate cut decision was announced, the precious metals market maintained a downward trend due to the outflow of long - position funds after the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled. The subsequent trend will depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. In the short term, the market lacks further positive catalysts after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, and the precious metals market may enter a volatile range. The strategy is to try short positions lightly when the price is high and focus on range - band trading [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 824.1 yuan/gram, down 10.98; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9835 yuan/kilogram, down 71. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 87731 lots, down 8276; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 395854 lots, up 223963. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168591 lots, up 3052; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122144 lots, up 3040. The gold warehouse receipt quantity was 56430 kilograms, up 2304; the silver warehouse receipt quantity was 1203523 kilograms, down 17905 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 829.6 yuan/gram, down 5; the silver spot price was 9834 yuan/kilogram, down 92. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.78 yuan/gram, up 3.26; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 1 yuan/kilogram, down 21 [2]. 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 975.66 tons, down 4.29; the silver ETF holdings were 15189.61 tons, down 28.23. The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 4. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.59%, up 2.29; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.67%, down 0.34. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.32 [2]. 5. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month pause. The FOMC statement pointed out that the downside risks in employment have increased, economic growth has slowed down in the first half of the year, and inflation has risen. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is over 90%. The US new housing starts in August decreased from 1.429 million units in July to 1.307 million units, far lower than the expected 1.365 million units. Building permits decreased from 1.362 million units in July to 1.312 million units, the lowest since May 2020. Japan's export value in August decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 87.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 1.1%, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 19.0%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 79.9% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures price declined on Wednesday due to the unclear US biofuel proposal policy, which led to a significant drop in the US soybean oil futures price and dragged down the domestic oil market. In the short term, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the market shows a volatile trend. The heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, has affected at least 7 counties, and as one of the main palm oil producing areas, the market is worried about its impact on palm picking and transportation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 2.5% compared with the same period in August [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract was 9304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 423179 hands, a decrease of 12824 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 1570 hands, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 9011 hands, a decrease of 16510 hands; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil was 4414 Malaysian ringgit/ton, an increase of 31 ringgit; the settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil was 64.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.47 dollars [2] Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 9380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Tianjin was 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars; the CNF price was 1148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the palm oil main contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly production of Malaysian palm oil was 1685962 tons, an increase of 298531 tons; the export volume was 1102266 tons, an increase of 96719 tons; the ending inventory was 1865537 tons, an increase of 302720 tons. The monthly production of Indonesian palm oil was 528.9 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons; the export volume was 360.6 million tons, an increase of 94.6 million tons; the inventory was 253 million tons, a decrease of 39 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs caliber) was 16 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil was 120.3 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil was 60.77 million tons, a decrease of 2.13 million tons. The import cost of Malaysian palm oil was 9746.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.61 yuan. The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, was 8480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian, was 10240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil was 11.36 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28.22 dollars; the price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The annual food consumption of palm oil in Malaysia was 870 thousand tons, an increase of 5 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 3100 thousand tons, unchanged. In Indonesia, the food consumption was 7400 thousand tons, an increase of 200 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 13750 thousand tons, an increase of 500 thousand tons. In China, the food consumption was 3600 thousand tons, a decrease of 100 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 2300 thousand tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil was 16.64%, a decrease of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.63%, a decrease of 0.29%. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.24%, an increase of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, an increase of 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Sabah state government in Malaysia canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration due to heavy rain and floods in at least 7 counties. The SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 15, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.05% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 6.94%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% [2]