1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Black Sector Daily Report - Update Time: August 14, 2025, 08:23 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities have experienced pulse - like price increases recently due to news - related factors. The market is currently trading on weak current realities and strong expectations. For both steel products and iron ore, short - term long positions should be closed at high prices, and new short - term long positions can be considered after sufficient adjustments. Empty - position investors should avoid chasing the rising market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Threaded Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rebar decreased, factory inventories increased, social inventories continued to decline, and total inventories decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories are likely to rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is rising steadily, but it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous week [3]. - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, while the factory inventory increased by 0.42% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 million tons. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on the futures price [3][4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle. The short - term rise is mainly due to news factors, and it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 763.5 yuan/dry ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1585.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.40%, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 578.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.47% [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% [4]. 3.3 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Industry Association's vice - president Wang Yingsheng stated that in the short term, domestic steel demand in the second half of 2025 is likely to decline. In the long term, China's steel demand will remain at a peak - level range for a long time. It is predicted that China's crude steel output will be between 800 million and 900 million tons in 2035 and will remain at around 800 million tons after 2050 [6]. - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the prices of coking products. From July 14, the price of tamping wet - quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 75 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 95 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke price in the Xingtai market is planned to be raised, with tamping wet - quenched coke up 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke up 75 yuan/ton, top - charged wet - quenched coke up 90 yuan/ton, and top - charged dry - quenched coke up 95 yuan/ton [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi with a production capacity of 7.1 million tons resumed production on July 12, which will relieve the shortage of lean coal supply in the region to some extent [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 725.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - **Core Logic**: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - **Other Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The recent rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still in the process of bottoming out, and the current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore production is expected to decline. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Analysis**: The May economic data was slightly below expectations, and the June PMI improved. The real estate market is still bottoming out, with the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and demand is expected to weaken further with high - temperature weather. Technically, it's uncertain whether the futures price can break through upwards [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be held and should be closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel trading volume (7 - day moving average) was 16.05 tons, down 20.54% from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore production is expected to decline due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global shipment is high, and port inventory decline is slowing, putting pressure on futures prices. It may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term but faces resistance [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be lightly held and closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [5]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [5]. 3.3 Industry News On July 9, in the Lvliang coking coal online auction market, the average transaction price of Lishi low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1123 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan/ton from the previous period on June 25 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, silver strong, high - level volatility in the medium term, and a stepped upward trend in the long term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and for aggressive investors to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] - The price of silver is expected to show a short - term weakening trend, and the strategy is the same as that for gold [3][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Gold - Today, gold is weak and silver is strong. The Shanghai gold main contract closed down 1%, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed down 0.2% [3] - The core logic is that in the short term, the risk of hedging has eased in the new stage of the trade war, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest - rate cuts [3] - In terms of hedging attributes, Trump wrote to 14 countries notifying new tariffs, and close allies Japan and South Korea are subject to a 25% tariff [3] - In terms of monetary attributes, the Fed paper shows that there is still a possibility that interest rates will fall to near - zero levels. Strong overall US employment growth has ruled out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. In June, non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the estimated 110,000, but nearly half of the non - farm employment growth came from the government sector, and the increase in private - sector jobs was the smallest in eight months. The market currently expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points [3] - In terms of commodity attributes, the investment demand for gold offsets the decline in jewelry demand, while the expected industrial demand for silver is under pressure [3] 3.2 Silver - Gold price trends anchor silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETFs have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the short - term visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [7][8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.50%, discount rate: 4.50%, reserve balance rate: 4.40%, total Fed assets: $6,710.364 billion, M2 year - on - year: 4.50% [10] - Ten - year US Treasury real yield: 2.59%, US dollar index: 97.51, US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year): 0.52, US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year): 0, US - EU Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 1.85, US - China Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 3.29 [10][13] - CPI year - on - year: 2.40%, CPI month - on - month: 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year: 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month: 0.20% [13] - US GDP annualized year - on - year: 1.90%, unemployment rate: 4.10%, non - farm payrolls monthly change: 147,000, labor participation rate: 62.60%, average hourly wage growth rate: 3.70% [13] - US labor market weekly working hours: 34.20 hours, ADP employment: - 33,000, initial jobless claims: 233,000, job vacancies: 7.604 million, Challenger corporate layoffs: 48,000 [13] - NAHB housing market index: 32.00, existing home sales: 4.03 million units, new home sales: 560,000 units, new home starts: 1.152 million units [13] - Retail sales year - on - year: 4.71%, retail sales month - on - month: - 0.22%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year: 4.55%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month: - 0.14% [13] - US exports year - on - year: - 34.52%, exports month - on - month: - 12.73%, imports year - on - year: - 18.13%, imports month - on - month: - 13.99%, trade balance: - $71.5 billion [13] - ISM manufacturing PMI: 49.00, ISM services PMI: 50.80, Markit manufacturing PMI: 0.00, Markit services PMI: 0.00 [13] - Central bank gold reserves: China 2,298.55 tons, US 8,133.46 tons, world total 36,250.15 tons [14] - Global gold/reserves: 22.18%, China gold/reserves: 6.78%, US gold/reserves: 78.64% [14] - Geopolitical risk index: 132.88, up 126.93% from the previous day and 23.60% from last week [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors are advised to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price increase of black - series commodities may not be sustainable as the main goal of the recent Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing sectors rather than supply - side reform in the upstream of black and building materials industries. The current real estate market is still bottoming out, and the black - series market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline further. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Analysis**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black - series industry. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and the real estate market is still in the bottoming process. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise slightly. Technically, there is significant resistance above the futures price [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded bar main contract is 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar output is 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from last week; the hot - rolled coil output is 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from last week [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore output is expected to decline further due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which exerts pressure on the futures price. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend, but there is significant resistance above [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when the price rises. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then short at high prices [6]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [6]. III. Industry News - On July 8, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14403.69 tons, a decrease of 62.08 tons from last Monday. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1269.2 tons, an increase of 30.8 tons from the previous period [8]. - A new round of staggered production has started for Shandong cement enterprises, which will help balance supply and demand in the industry [8]. - From July 7 to July 13, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 18 ports decreased by 31% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 26% week - on - week [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term outlook for precious metals is that gold is weaker than silver, mid - term they will oscillate at high levels, and long - term they will rise step - by - step. Factors influencing this include short - term easing of Middle - East geopolitical conflicts while risks of economic recession and geopolitical异动 remain; increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and strong employment suppressing rate - cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump extended the "reciprocal" tariff effective date. Regarding the monetary attribute, chances of the Fed's interest rate falling to near - zero still exist, and strong US employment growth reduces the possibility of a near - term rate cut. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has pressure on rebound, and a strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [3]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. On the inventory side, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed gold being weaker than silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.43%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.22% [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.40 per ounce, up 0.31% from the previous day and 0.95% from last week; London gold was at $3315.35 per ounce, down 0.50% from the previous day but up 0.85% from last week. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64% from the previous day and 0.02% from last week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions decreased by 0.81% week - on - week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 6.97% week - on - week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged at 8598 tons; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% week - on - week [4]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 decreased by 798, and that of the top 10 decreased by 1787. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 decreased by 21, and that of the top 10 increased by 125 [5]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [8]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.27% from the previous day but up 1.68% from last week; London silver was at $36.25 per ounce, down 1.74% from the previous day and up 0.75% from last week. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% from the previous day and 1.62% from last week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions decreased by 6.33% week - on - week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 27.73% week - on - week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 4.08% week - on - week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [8]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 increased by 11872, and that of the top 10 increased by 10600. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 increased by 1568, and that of the top 10 increased by 2299 [9]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous level; the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion, down 0.00% week - on - week [10]. - **Inflation and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57, up 4.05% week - on - week; the US dollar index is 97.55, up 0.76% week - on - week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.52, down 20.29% week - on - week [10]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.83, up 100.00% compared to the previous value; the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.27, up 5.03% compared to the previous value [12]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2298.55 tons, up 0.18% compared to the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's total is 36250.15 tons, unchanged [12][13]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, up 23.60% week - on - week; the VIX index is 17.32, down 2.64% from the previous day but up 2.91% week - on - week [13]. - **Commodity - related Indexes**: The CRB commodity index is 299.28, down 0.22% from the previous day but up 1.09% week - on - week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1729, up 0.15% week - on - week [13]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still bottoming out, and the economy in May was slightly below expectations, though the PMI in June improved. The current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices. However, in the short term, driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Perception of Policy**: The market misinterpreted the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a signal for a new round of supply - side reform in the black industry, but the actual target is downstream manufacturing [2]. - **Real Estate Market**: In May, housing prices in all tiers declined month - on - month. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening compared to the previous month, indicating that the real estate market is still bottoming out [2]. - **Economic Data**: The economic data in May was slightly below expectations, while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, rebar production increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and total inventories decreased slightly. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rally, the futures price adjusted, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Aggressive investors can try short - term long positions and take profits in time when prices rise. The medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day and up 2.14% from the previous week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 221.08 tons, up 1.49% from the previous week; hot - rolled coil production was 328.14 tons, up 0.28% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties' social inventory increased by 1.06% from the previous week, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Production and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory in ports exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Short - Term Trend**: Driven by the rise in prices of products like rebar and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range volatile pattern and a long - term downward cycle. After a short - term rally, it declined, indicating significant resistance above [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, be cautious about chasing up, and the medium - term strategy is to wait patiently for the top signal and then go short at high prices [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The DCE iron ore主力合约结算价 was 731 yuan/dry ton, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 2.17% from the previous week [6]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from the previous week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.37% from the previous week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 0.15% [6]. 3.3 Industry News - Coal production in the first five months of this year reached 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 110 million tons, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [8]. - From January to now, the global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year. The new shipbuilding markets for container ships, cruise ships, and ferries remain active, while investment in gas ships and oil tankers has slowed down [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipments were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous period [8]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, with a production capacity of 900,000 tons, resumed production on July 5 after a 15 - day shutdown, but its output is still below the normal level [8]. - From June 30 to July 6, the iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.355 million tons, an increase of 1.22 million tons from the previous period [9]. - As of July 7, 16 blast furnaces in Tangshan steel enterprises were under maintenance, with a daily hot metal impact of about 39,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 91.36%, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - **Positions**: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - **Positions**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - **Inventory**: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - **Economic Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a new round of supply - side reform in the upstream of the industrial chain, but the actual target is anti - involution in the downstream manufacturing sector, so the price increase may not be sustainable [2]. - The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the economic data in May was slightly below expectations while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month. The current state of the steel market is weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory is expected to rise slightly [2]. - Currently, the iron ore market is affected by factors such as the decline in steel mill iron - water production, high global shipments, and high proportion of trade ore inventory, but in the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend driven by the price increase of products like rebar and glass [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting. The real estate market is bottom - building, economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and PMI in June improved. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and demand will weaken with high - temperature weather [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: This week, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased slightly. Apparent demand rebounded slightly month - on - month. The 247 - steel - mill average daily iron - water volume decreased by 1.44 million tons (- 0.59%) compared to last week, and the national building materials steel mill rebar production increased by 3.24 million tons (1.49%) [2][3]. - **Price Data**: The rebar steel main contract closing price was 3072 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract closing price was 3201 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from last week. The rebar spot price in Shanghai increased by 2.92% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price increased by 1.88% [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mill profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. Global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory decline has slowed down, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Last week, the 247 - steel - mill iron - water production exceeded 2.409 billion tons, a decrease of 150 million tons compared to the previous week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7306 billion tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% [5][6]. - **Price Data**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 732.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.23% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 95.85 US dollars/dry ton, up 3.35% from last week [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [5]. III. Industry News - In late June 2025, the national daily average crude steel production was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% month - on - month; the daily average pig iron production was 2.38 million tons, an increase of 0.3% month - on - month; the daily average steel production was 4.21 million tons, an increase of 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% [8]. - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory in 35 ports reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from last week. The average daily import ore handling volume decreased by 45,000 tons from last week [8]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from last week. The average daily iron - water production was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 1.44 million tons from last week. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports decreased by 518,300 tons [8]. - This week, the urban total inventory was 7.2366 million tons, an increase of 81,400 tons (+1.14%) from last week. The building steel inventory was 3.7507 million tons, an increase of 47,600 tons (+1.29%) from last week [8].