投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月12日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3329.10 | 18.70 | 0.56% | 81.70 | 2.52% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3324.55 | -27.75 | -0.83% | 74.85 | 2.30% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 772.28 | -16.14 | -2.05% | -8.02 | -1.03% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 758.15 | -27.15 | -3.46% | -21.35 | -2.74% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -17.59 | -31.51 | -226% | -39.46 | -180% | | | 沪金主力 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - Update Time: May 7, 2025, 08:18 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The market expects that China and the US may reach a certain agreement on tariff issues, with a low risk of complete decoupling, but it may take time and this expectation is at least partially factored into trading. The market is also concerned about the US Treasury bond scale this year, which may significantly affect the US dollar index [2]. - After OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases and even impose punitive production increases, Kazakhstan's consideration of complying with quotas was interpreted as positive, but data verification is still needed. The demand side may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant increase in supply, the impact of seasonal demand growth on prices may be limited. There is also a possibility that if the US Treasury bond scale stops growing, it may ultimately affect crude oil demand [2]. - Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, the probability of the Russia-Ukraine conflict moving towards negotiation is increasing, and the US-Iran negotiation is in progress, but external risks are rising. Overall, trading may return to supply-demand expectations, and OPEC+ is likely to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices, while being alert to potential positive geopolitical impacts [2]. - Overnight oil prices rebounded significantly, possibly due to the positive news of China and the US starting to discuss tariff issues and the support of geopolitical tensions. In the medium term, US crude oil broke below the previous production cut bottom range and continued to decline. The $56 per barrel level shows as a phased support, and the resistance may be around $63 per barrel. In the current situation of OPEC+ accelerating production increase expectations and difficult-to-find demand growth, oil prices may still be under pressure. The difference lies in that the new equilibrium price needs to be determined through trading, and the path to reach the new equilibrium is uncertain [2]. - From a technical analysis perspective, after oil prices plunged below the multi-year production cut bottom and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, a downward trend was formed again. The weekly chart of US crude oil has shown a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and then declining. The medium-term weak pattern is difficult to change, and the probability of a phased decline is increasing. The lower limit may point to $45 per barrel in the medium term. The short-term pressure has moved down to around $60.4 per barrel for US crude oil. In the medium term, the trading strategy should still be to sell on rallies. Aggressive investors can consider short positions and set stop-losses, or consider buying put options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On May 6, SC crude oil was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 12.20 yuan (-2.59%) from the previous day and down 34.50 yuan (-6.99%) from the previous week; WTI was at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.78 (1.34%) from the previous day and down $3.77 (-6.01%) from the previous week; Brent was at $62.04 per barrel, up $1.00 (1.64%) from the previous day and down $4.46 (-6.71%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Crude Oil**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $59.86 per barrel; Brent DTD was at $61.46 per barrel; Oman was at $59.56 per barrel; Dubai was at $59.56 per barrel; ESPO was at $55.43 per barrel [2]. - **Product Spreads**: The SC-WTI spread was $4.73 per barrel, down $2.47 (-34.30%) from the previous day and down $0.94 (-16.52%) from the previous week; the SC-Brent spread was $1.69 per barrel, down $2.69 (-61.42%) from the previous day and down $0.25 (-12.69%) from the previous week; the Brent-WTI spread was $3.04 per barrel, down $1.34 (-30.56%) from the previous day and up $1.11 (57.14%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot**: Diesel in East China was at 6,559.45 yuan per ton, down 61.09 yuan (-0.92%) from the previous day and down 121.73 yuan (-1.82%) from the previous week; gasoline in East China was at 7,746.55 yuan per ton, down 65.27 yuan (-0.84%) from the previous day and down 142.64 yuan (-1.81%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The strategic petroleum reserve was 398.54 million barrels, up 1.07 million barrels (0.27%); EIA US commercial crude oil was 440.41 million barrels, down 2.70 million barrels (-0.61%); Cushing crude oil was 25.70 million barrels, up 0.68 million barrels (2.73%); gasoline was 225.54 million barrels, down 4.00 million barrels (-1.74%); distillates were 107.82 million barrels, up 0.94 million barrels (0.88%) [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non-commercial net positions were 17.72 million contracts, up 0.63 million contracts (5.52%); commercial net positions were -18.35 million contracts, down 0.96 million contracts; non-reportable net positions were 0.63 million contracts, up 0.34 million contracts (114.44%) [2]. Industry News - After being attacked by Israel, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen stated that they would not give up supporting the Gaza Strip at any cost and would launch a devastating counterattack [3]. - The European Commission will propose a new sanctions package against Moscow's shadow oil tanker fleet, aiming to increase pressure on Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The proposed sanctions will cover 60 individuals and entities and include restrictions on about 150 ships [3]. - Kazakhstan is considering complying with its OPEC+ production cut obligations after Saudi Arabia reiterated that quota violators should comply with regulations [4]. - OPEC+ decided to increase daily production by an additional 411,000 barrels in June, which was regarded as a strategic change. Capital Economics lowered its year-end price forecast for Brent crude oil from $70 to $60 per barrel and the 2026 year-end forecast from $60 to $50 per barrel [4]. - The fourth round of Iran-US nuclear talks is expected to be held in Muscat, Oman, on May 11, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry has not confirmed this [4]. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and hold talks with the US Treasury Secretary. He will then go to France to co-chair the 10th China-France High-Level Economic and Financial Dialogue from May 12 - 16 [5]. - Pakistan and India have started exchanges of fire on the Line of Control in Pakistan-administered Kashmir [5]. - US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 2 decreased by 4.494 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.854 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.974 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 2.242 million barrels [6]. - The EIA short-term energy outlook report expects the average prices of WTI crude oil this year and next year to be $61.81 and $55.24 per barrel respectively (previously $63.88 and $57.48 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil to be $65.85 and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $67.87 and $61.48 per barrel). It also expects global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day (previously 103.6 million barrels per day) and in 2026 to be 104.6 million barrels per day (previously 104.7 million barrels per day). US crude oil production in 2025 is expected to be 13.42 million barrels per day (previously 13.51 million barrels per day) and in 2026 to be 13.49 million barrels per day (previously 13.56 million barrels per day) [6]. - If the ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US do not yield satisfactory results, the EU plans to impose additional tariffs on about $113 billion worth of US goods [7]. - The Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that oil prices play a crucial role in Russia's budget and overall economy, but Russia's national interests are above all else. Russia is cooperating with OPEC+ to maintain oil prices at an optimal level [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trade situation will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel products, but has limited impact on billet exports. The profit of billet is currently good. The Politburo meeting emphasized measures such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the State Council Information Office stated that major policies will be introduced in the second quarter, boosting market confidence. The real - estate market in core cities may gradually stabilize and recover, while the market in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. The downstream demand has entered the peak season in April, but high demand may not be sustainable, and the apparent demand will decline seasonally after the consumption peak. For steel futures, it is a short - term rebound, not a reversal [2]. - Policy factors have boosted market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support the futures price. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The real - estate data shows a mixed situation in different - tier cities. Technically, the iron ore futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The trade situation affects steel consumption and exports. The Politburo meeting and policy announcements boost confidence. The real - estate market shows different trends in core and low - tier cities. The downstream demand in April is in the peak season, with rebar production, factory inventory, and social inventory decreasing last week, and the apparent demand falling month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen in the past two days with a decline in positions, indicating a short - term rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees. For example, the rebar futures price increased by 0.90% compared to the previous day and 0.51% compared to last week [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar decreased slightly by 0.05% week - on - week, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.99% [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and factory inventories of the five major steel products decreased. For example, the social inventory of the five major products decreased by 3.68% week - on - week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Policy boosts market confidence. The downstream demand peak in April may support prices. Steel mills have acceptable profitability, and molten iron production is in a recovery trend but may have peaked. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level and may continue to rise, and the port inventory has been increasing, exerting pressure on prices. The real - estate market shows different trends in different - tier cities [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has been falling and is weaker than that of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close short positions at low prices and then stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 0.21% compared to the previous day and decreased by 0.70% compared to last week [4]. - **Shipment**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. For example, Australian shipments increased by 11.08% compared to last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 1.46% week - on - week [4]. III. Industry News - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2679.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230.4 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2512.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 187.5 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1159.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.3 million tons [6]. - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2758.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.7 million tons. Australian shipments were 1995.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 196.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1647.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.9 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124.6 million tons. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3188.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 262.7 million tons [6]. - In the fourth week of April 2025, the total shipment of Brazilian iron ore was 2346.94 million tons, with an average daily shipment of 138.06 million tons per day, a 2.49% increase compared to April last year [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes the phased realization of Trump's trade - war risks leading to a decline in safe - haven demand, and an increase in the risk of U.S. economic stagflation causing the expected decline of the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 1.44%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.52% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade - war risks are phased realized, safe - haven demand declines; the risk of U.S. economic stagflation increases, and the expected real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds decreases [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump's reciprocal tariffs are realized, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent hints at the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions. Trump recently stated that he has no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: U.S. consumer confidence in April remains weak, and tariff concerns persist. The one - year inflation expectation of consumers is 6.5%, the highest since 1981, with a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. The long - term inflation expectation is 4.4%. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates next time in June, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 100 basis points. The U.S. dollar index encounters resistance in its downward movement, and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds oscillates strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index oscillates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][4]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **U.S. Federal Reserve Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the total assets of the Federal Reserve are 67780.29 billion U.S. dollars, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.12%, the real yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds is 2.48, and the U.S. dollar index is 99.57 [6]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as U.S. bond spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, and industrial data are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease [8]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 170.08, the VIX index is 25.89, the CRB commodity index is 298.46, and the offshore RMB is 7.2966 [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectation**: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月28日08时24分 报告导读： 目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，但对钢坯出口影响有限。上周五中央召开政治局会议，强调降准降息，创设 新的政策和金融工具，提振市场信心。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，土地溢价提升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但 全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下 降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比有所回落。从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求将季节性回 落，当前或已经见顶。从技术上看，上周五晚间期价上涨，伴随持仓量上升，显示多头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎追涨 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3101 | | 0 0 | 25 | 0.81 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has warmed up due to the Fed's likely maintenance of interest rates in May and over 50% probability of a rate cut in June, as well as Trump's tariff policy and remarks about not removing Powell from office. However, the actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in the growth of the US debt scale could affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are moving towards relaxation but still require sensitivity to emergencies [2]. - Overnight oil prices fluctuated with a rise and then a fall. The upward momentum from the warming external market sentiment was suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The current oil prices may not fully reflect OPEC+ production increase, and there are expectations for OPEC+ to continue managing supply to support prices. But there are concerns about OPEC+'s internal coordination and output control, and the short - term absence of geopolitical drivers has pressured oil prices [2]. - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production cut bottom in a sharp decline and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, the weekly chart of US oil shows a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and facing pressure. If the pressure around $65 per barrel for US oil is effective, it is difficult for the oil price to return to the production cut bottom range. The short - term is a rebound encountering resistance, and whether it turns into a phased decline remains to be seen. The short - term pressure has moved down to around $63.3 per barrel for US oil, and the potential support is around $61 per barrel for US oil. The trading strategy is to protect floating profits for short - term short positions and put options, and maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On April 24, Sc was at 493.40 yuan/barrel, down 10.40 (-2.06%) from the previous day and up 10.70 (2.22%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.77/barrel, up $0.49 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $1.68 (-2.61%) from the previous week; Brent was at $66.50/barrel, up $0.36 (0.54%) from the previous day and down $1.35 (-1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $70.26/barrel, with a weekly increase of $0.76 (1.09%); Brent DTD was at $66.95/barrel, down $1.33 (-1.95%) from the previous week; Oman was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; Dubai was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; ESPO was at $63.66/barrel, up $1.34 (2.15%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts totaled 4644000 barrels, a weekly increase of 907000 barrels (24.27%); the US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.47 million barrels (0.12%) [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 146400 contracts, up 6800 contracts (4.85%); commercial net positions were - 153700 contracts, down 5200 contracts (3.47%); non - report net positions were 7300 contracts, down 1600 contracts (-18.06%) [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - Trump set a deadline for the Russia - Ukraine issue, stating that the US attitude will change after the deadline, but Russia's Peskov said Trump never specified a date and setting a deadline for a cease - fire is inappropriate. Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev and was non - committal about sanctions [3]. - Putin urged Russian economic officials to seize opportunities from trade wars to strengthen the economy, as Russia's trade with the US and the EU has declined due to sanctions but is not affected by Trump's tariffs [4]. - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff plans for Chinese goods, including reducing the tariff rate to about 50% - 65% or implementing a "graded plan". However, the White House said Trump's stance on China tariffs has not softened [4]. - US Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that Trump's trade war could lead to rising unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July, but if tariffs return to a high level, companies may lay off workers, and he would support rate cuts in case of a sharp rise in unemployment [5]. - Russia launched a large - scale air strike on Ukraine, causing casualties. Trump criticized Russia, and Russia put forward new cease - fire conditions, requiring Kiev to withdraw troops from four regions [5]. - The US Middle East envoy is expected to visit Russia to discuss the Ukraine issue, and representatives from the UK, France, Germany, the US, and Ukraine held talks in London, claiming "significant progress" [6].

报告导读： 隔夜美财长贝森特表示中美之间高关税可持续性 ，在谈判之前应先互降关税，进一步释放贸易战缓和意思。全球资本市场迎来短暂喘息，黑色商品 出现大幅反弹。目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，市场预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。房地产方面，核 心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后， 下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，现实需 求支撑多头信心。但是，从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求会季节性回落。从技术上看，期价反弹，伴随持仓量下 降，显示空头在逢低离场，也意味着暂时看不到上涨的持续性 。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月24日08时23分 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有，后市需逢低离场，以防行情进入震荡 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时25分 报告导读： 隔夜特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，贝森特表示贸易紧张局势不具可持续性 ，释放贸易战缓和意思。目前的贸易局势对板材下游消费以及出口均将构 成一定的负面冲击，市场预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳 回升，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量 有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，现实需求支撑多头信心。但是，从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续， 消费旺季过后，表观需求会季节性回落。从技术上看，期价下行，伴随持仓量增加，显示空头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时09分 | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 4月22日 | | 数据类别 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc | 元/桶 494.00 4.80 0.98% 17.20 3.61% | 原油期货 | | | | | | | | WTI | 美元/桶 63.54 0.16 0.25% 2.01 3.27% | | | | | | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 67.82 1.35 2.03% 2.97 4.58% | | | | | | | | | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 5.00 0.49 10.82% 0.40 8.61% | 内外价差 | | | | | | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 0.72 -0.70 -49.34% -0.56 -43.88% | | | | | | | | | ...