Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a new round of supply - side reform in the upstream of the industrial chain, but the actual target is anti - involution in the downstream manufacturing sector, so the price increase may not be sustainable [2]. - The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the economic data in May was slightly below expectations while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month. The current state of the steel market is weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory is expected to rise slightly [2]. - Currently, the iron ore market is affected by factors such as the decline in steel mill iron - water production, high global shipments, and high proportion of trade ore inventory, but in the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend driven by the price increase of products like rebar and glass [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting. The real estate market is bottom - building, economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and PMI in June improved. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and demand will weaken with high - temperature weather [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: This week, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased slightly. Apparent demand rebounded slightly month - on - month. The 247 - steel - mill average daily iron - water volume decreased by 1.44 million tons (- 0.59%) compared to last week, and the national building materials steel mill rebar production increased by 3.24 million tons (1.49%) [2][3]. - **Price Data**: The rebar steel main contract closing price was 3072 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract closing price was 3201 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from last week. The rebar spot price in Shanghai increased by 2.92% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price increased by 1.88% [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mill profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. Global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory decline has slowed down, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Last week, the 247 - steel - mill iron - water production exceeded 2.409 billion tons, a decrease of 150 million tons compared to the previous week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7306 billion tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% [5][6]. - **Price Data**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 732.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.23% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 95.85 US dollars/dry ton, up 3.35% from last week [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [5]. III. Industry News - In late June 2025, the national daily average crude steel production was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% month - on - month; the daily average pig iron production was 2.38 million tons, an increase of 0.3% month - on - month; the daily average steel production was 4.21 million tons, an increase of 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% [8]. - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory in 35 ports reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from last week. The average daily import ore handling volume decreased by 45,000 tons from last week [8]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from last week. The average daily iron - water production was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 1.44 million tons from last week. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports decreased by 518,300 tons [8]. - This week, the urban total inventory was 7.2366 million tons, an increase of 81,400 tons (+1.14%) from last week. The building steel inventory was 3.7507 million tons, an increase of 47,600 tons (+1.29%) from last week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. The short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the logic of the Fed's rate - cut is brewing. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently. [5] - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%. International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed certain changes. For example, Comex gold rose 0.56% compared to the previous day. [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but economic recession and geopolitical risks remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed's rate - cut logic is brewing. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump is disappointed with the US - Japan trade negotiation and threatens to raise tariffs. [1] - **Monetary**: Powell said the Fed needs more data before cutting rates, not ruling out action in July. Market expects the next rate - cut in September, with a total rate - cut space of about 75 basis points in 2025. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D also changed. For example, Comex silver rose 1.50% compared to the previous day. [1][6] - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Capital and inventory factors affect the silver market. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 188.42 billion US dollars to 67134.58 billion US dollars. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. showed certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI was 4.50%, up 0.65% compared to the previous period. [10][11] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP growth rate decreased, and indicators such as unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and labor participation rate also changed. For example, the annualized year - on - year GDP was 1.90%, down 1.00% compared to the previous period. [11] - **Other Data**: Data on the US Treasury market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. also showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.50%, up 1.21% compared to the previous day. [11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7%. [13]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月03日08时26分 报告导读： 本周二中央财经委召开会议，要求加大落后产能淘汰力度，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争。市场把本次会议理解为要推出新一轮供给侧改革 。但 本次会议的主要目标并不是在产业链上游推进供给侧改革 ，而是要在下游的制造环节反内卷。因此，昨日期价涨 2%，持仓量大幅增加，说明仍有 空头选择逢高卖出。 5 月各线房价环比均回落，1-6 月 top100 房企总销售额同比下降 11.8%，降幅比 上月有所扩大，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于 筑底的过程中。5 月的经济数据整体略不及预期，6 月的 PMI 数据环比有所改善。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所上升， 厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到 来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 。从技术上看，期价维持震荡偏强的走势，目前 已经突破了上方布林带上轨的阻力 。 操作建议： 维持观望，回调之后可短线做多，追涨须 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, with economic data in May slightly falling short of expectations and PMI data in June showing a slight improvement. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. The iron ore market has a relatively high supply of global shipments, and the decline in port inventory has slowed down, putting pressure on futures prices. [2][5] - Technically, the steel futures price maintains a slightly stronger oscillating trend, with strong resistance expected near the 60 - day moving average. The iron ore futures price is in a large - range oscillating pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation. [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has intensified. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline was larger than last month. [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the production of thread steel increased, factory inventory rebounded, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price stabilizes during a correction, and do not chase the rise. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The main basis of thread steel was 117 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the main basis of hot - rolled coil was 64 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 217.84 tons, up 2.67% from last week; the social inventory of thread steel was 363.4 tons, down 1.45% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory has slowed down, and the proportion of trading ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on futures prices. [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price correction, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 708.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.98% from the previous day and up 0.78% from last week. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures was 24 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day. [5] - **Supply and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1730.6 tons, down 8.14% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 tons, down 9.52% from last week. Port inventory totaled 13930.23 tons, up 0.26% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - On July 1, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14465.77 tons, a decrease of 28.74 tons from last Monday. Except for the southern and river - side regions, the inventory of imported iron ore at ports in other regions decreased compared with last Monday. [8] - Satellite data showed that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1238.4 tons, a decrease of 18.8 tons from the previous period, and the inventory was at a relatively low level since the second quarter. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July, with over 50% expectation of a rate cut in September. The baseline assumption is a 25BP rate cut in Q4, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies, US Treasuries, and geopolitics [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with Saudi Arabia's exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day in June. The oil market may return to supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term attention should be paid to OPEC policies and reciprocal tariffs [2]. - The oil price is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Traders are advised to short at high prices but wait for the right opportunity. If there is a short - term downward break, short - term follow - up can be considered, with stop - loss in mind [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Futures - On July 1st, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from last week. WTI was at $65.53/barrel, up $0.56 (0.86%) from the previous day and up $0.52 (0.80%) from last week. Brent was at $67.28/barrel, up $0.65 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-0.80%) from last week [2]. Inner - Outer Spreads - Sc - WTI was at $4.28/barrel, down $0.13 (-2.99%) from the previous day and down $3.08 (-41.84%) from last week. Sc - Brent was at $2.53/barrel, down $0.22 (-8.06%) from the previous day and down $2.02 (-44.37%) from last week. Brent - WTI was at $1.75/barrel, down $1.01 (-36.48%) from the previous day and down $2.80 (-61.57%) from last week [2]. Sc Month - Spreads - Sc_C1 - C2 was at 6.60 yuan/barrel, up 6.70 yuan (6700.00%) from the previous day and up 4.30 yuan (186.96%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at 22.10 yuan/barrel, up 4.00 yuan (22.10%) from the previous day and down 13.40 yuan (-37.75%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C13 was at 25.50 yuan/barrel, up 1.40 yuan (5.81%) from the previous day and down 28.40 yuan (-52.69%) from last week [2]. Crude Oil Spot - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $68.35/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.36 (0.53%) from last week. Brent DTD was at $68.17/barrel, with no change from the previous day and down $1.05 (-1.52%) from last week. Oman was at $69.20/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $1.40 (2.06%) from last week. Dubai was at $68.75/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.95 (1.40%) from last week. ESPO was at $62.76/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.49 (0.79%) from last week [2]. Premiums and Discounts - OPEC's basket of premiums and discounts was at $1.07/barrel, down $0.47 (-30.52%) from the previous day and up $0.14 (15.05%) from last week. Brent DTD premiums and discounts was at $0.89/barrel, down $1.68 (-65.37%) from the previous day and down $1.38 (-281.63%) from last week. Oman premiums and discounts was at $1.92/barrel, up $2.02 (2020.00%) from the previous day and down $3.94 (-195.05%) from last week. Dubai premiums and discounts was at $1.47/barrel, up $2.80 (210.53%) from the previous day and down $1.31 (-47.12%) from last week. ESPO premiums and discounts was at -$4.52/barrel, down $2.89 (-177.30%) from the previous day and down $18.82 (-131.60%) from last week [2]. Product Spot - Diesel in East China was at 7,036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from last week. Gasoline in East China was at 8,078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from last week [2]. Spread References - Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.089817, down 0.19 (-1.33%) from the previous day and down 0.21 (-1.48%) from last week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 16.175775, down 0.22 (-1.35%) from the previous day and down 0.14 (-0.87%) from last week. Diesel - gasoline (East China) was -1,041.73 yuan/ton, up 9.91 yuan (-0.94%) from the previous day and up 3.73 yuan (-0.36%) from last week [2]. Sc Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts were 5.911 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 1.882 million barrels (46.71%) from last week. The strategic petroleum reserve was 402.53 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from last week [2]. EIA US (Weekly) - Commercial crude oil was 415.11 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from last week. Cushing crude oil was 22.22 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 0.46 million barrels (-2.05%) from last week. Gasoline was 227.94 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 2.08 million barrels (-0.90%) from last week. Distillates were 105.33 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 4.07 million barrels (-3.72%) from last week [2]. CFTC Positions (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 233,000 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 19,000 contracts (0.83%) from last week. Commercial net positions were -270,500 contracts, with no change from the previous day and down 115,000 contracts (4.44%) from last week. Non - reported net positions were 37,600 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 9,600 contracts (34.17%) from last week [2]. Industry News - Trump said Israel agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire with Hamas, and he will meet Netanyahu on the 7th to discuss the Gaza situation and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines on ships in the Persian Gulf, preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Houthi rebels attacked Israeli airports and cities with missiles and drones on July 1st [4]. - US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28th, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.417 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 1.92 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 3.458 million barrels [5]. - Mexico's oil production is dropping to the level of the late 1970s, and its June exports dropped to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day [5]. - Israel's military action assessment report showed that its multi - layer air defense system intercepted 86% of Iranian ballistic missiles and over 99% of drones [6]. - Trump said he won't extend the trade negotiation deadline on July 9th and is skeptical about reaching an agreement with Japan, and may impose higher tariffs on Japanese imports [6]. - Brazil's oil production in May reached 3.679 million barrels per day, a 10.9% year - on - year increase, and natural gas production was 172.3 million cubic meters, an 18.3% year - on - year increase [7]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June to 6.36 million barrels per day, the highest in over a year [7]. - The US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion and spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years, and raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [9].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月01日17时01分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.47%，沪银主力收涨1.11%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘冲突缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储重新降息逻辑蓄势待发。②避险属性方面，特朗普对美日贸易谈判表示失望，贝森特警告将 提高关税。欧盟贸易执委本周将前往华盛顿与美国谈判，寻求达成公平协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储 正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久通胀的风险。美国5月消费者支出意外下降；通胀温和上 行，核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间涨至75基点左 右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震 荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥本周有多项美国就业数据，目前市场预期走弱，建议关注数据超预期风险。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者逢低做多。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the overall economic data in May was slightly below expectations. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price may have fully reflected the negative factors. The futures price of steel products maintains a narrow - range shock, and there may be a second bottom - probing in the short term [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, putting pressure on the futures price. The long - term trend of the futures price is downward, and it is weak in the short - term shock [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Environment**: The central bank's suggestion to strengthen monetary policy regulation has strengthened the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but it has little impact on the market. The real - estate market is still bottom - building, with the total sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline has widened compared with last month. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory rebounded, the social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will weaken further, and inventory will rise slightly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a shock mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the callback stabilizes, and do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 2997 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week. Other data such as basis, spread, and various prices are also provided in detail [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week exceeded 2.423 million tons, but it is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate is slowing down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is high, putting pressure on the futures price [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - term long positions can be taken after the callback, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 716.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.92% from last week. Data on overseas shipments, sea freight, inventory, and various prices are also provided [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In June, the PMI of the steel industry was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, and it is expected that in July, the demand will be under pressure and the steel price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [7]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel exports are still at a high level, and the future trend is uncertain. The steel billet exports have increased too fast year - on - year, and the annualized calculation may exceed 10 million tons [7]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.491 million tons month - on - month [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi will be shut down for maintenance from June 28 to July 12, with an estimated impact on the total raw coal output of 375,000 tons [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月27日08时22分 报告导读： 本周原油价格大幅走低，对黑色商品目前影响有限。5 月各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 ，5 月的经济数据整体 略不及预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数 据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目 前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价仍旧维持窄幅震荡，成交在回落，在价格下跌 时，持仓量放大，显示空头仍更主动，最近几日的下跌，也有可能是二次探底结束，后市大概率延续震荡 操作建议： 维持观望，回调企稳后可做多，不可追涨 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月26日16时43分 投资咨询系列报告 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属低位反弹，沪金主力收涨0.69%，沪银主力收涨1.70%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储降息节奏放缓。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，双方达成 协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久 通胀的风险。美国6月消费者信心意外下滑，一年通胀预期下降。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至 50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金 属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | | | 学名前 | | | | 学学会 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) 名次 | 会员简称 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black commodity market is currently trading on weak reality and weak expectations, but prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. For both螺纹 and热卷, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment. For铁矿石, it is also recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. 螺纹、热卷 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, but it has limited impact on black commodities. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process, and May's economic data was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week,螺纹 production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand continued to decline on a month - on - month basis, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a narrow - range oscillation, trading volume is declining, and when prices fall, open interest increases, indicating that short - sellers are more active. There may be a second bottom - testing trend in the near future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance and consider going long after a full adjustment [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the螺纹 steel主力 contract was 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.33% from last week; the closing price of the热轧卷板主力 contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and 0.13% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill螺纹 steel production was 212.18 million tons, up 2.22% from last week; the热卷 production was 325.45 million tons, up 0.25% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory and螺纹 social inventory decreased, with a decline of 1.55% and 1.72% respectively; the热卷 social inventory decreased by 1.95% [2]. 2. 铁矿石 - **Market Environment**: The fragile cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron - water production is expected to decline further [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global shipments are at a relatively high level and are rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventory is slowing down, and the proportion of trade - mine inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are still in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, go long after a pullback, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE铁矿石主力 contract was 702.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.07% from the previous day and up 1.01% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments were 1884 million tons, up 4.35% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments were 858.4 million tons, up 27.76% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13894.16 million tons, down 0.28% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory was 9401.45 million tons, down 1.07% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously consolidate the stability of the real - estate market, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and better meet the people's new expectations for "good houses" [6]. - According to Mysteel, Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of iron - water production. Due to insufficient iron - water, a corresponding螺纹 steel production line will be shut down during the same period [7]. - An executive of Brazilian mining giant Vale said that the iron - ore production of the Gelado project is expected to reach about 5 million tons in 2026, an increase from 2.5 million tons this year [8].