美国总统在白宫发表讲话，重申美联储主席鲍威尔应该降低利率。美国总统已连续两日就降息 向鲍威尔施压。财富杂志网站报道称，美国总统希望降低利率，以"抵消"他自己的关税政策 所带来的通胀。 评 论 及 策 略 早间外盘黄金高开高走。特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social发表有关谈判的感悟，称"谈 判与成功的黄金法则：拥有黄金者制定规则"，即谁有黄金谁占主导，引发市场猜想。随着贸 易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务 等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上 行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口，但长端美债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启QE和 提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国国债到期和债务压力进一步加剧，滞胀形式进一步明确 下，黄金整体仍将维持强势。 20250421申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 沪金2506 沪金2512 沪银2506 沪银2512 现价 788.30 791.14 8128.00 8191.00 前收盘价 791.02 793.86 8160.00 8220.00 涨跌 -2.72 -2.72 -32. ...

| CNF到岸价: 指标 | | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/4/21 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 7748 8204 9391 3020 2487 8844 涨跌 96 126 66 7 -19 26 涨跌幅(%) 1.25% 1.56% -3.15% 0.23% -0.76% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 62 58 154 -428 1517 1089 前值 56 54 157 -456 1643 1187 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -23 201 424 1.16 2.55 4683 前值 -24 182 434 1.17 2.57 4728 国 际 期 货 市 场 BMD棕榈油/ 林吉特/吨 CBOT大豆/美 ...

20250421申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 投资咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7081 | 7311 | 7143 | 7048 | 7222 | 7124 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7074 | 7303 | 7140 | 7030 | 7196 | 7099 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 26 | 25 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.36% | 0.35% | | 场 | 成交量 | 7676 | 48148 | 259595 | 2484 | 28254 | 2 ...

| 集运欧线数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/4/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新观点 | | | | | | 策略方向 | | | 集运欧线：上周五06合约收于1533点，下跌1.11%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1316美 | | | | | | | | | 元/TEU，环比下跌40美元/TEU，基本对应于04.21-04.27期间欧线的订舱价，是年 | | | | | | | | | 内仅次于3月底当周的低价。5月上旬运价小幅调降，马士基5月第一周开舱延续 | | | | | | | | | 1800美元的大柜报价，沿用4月底报价，5月第二周大柜小幅调降50美元至1750美 | | | | | | | | | 元，CMA再次调降5月起报价至大柜2245美元，较3月底报价还低100美元。5月初大 | | | | | | 震荡 | | | 柜均值在2000美元左右，略低于当前4月底报价均值，5月上旬迎来旺季拐点可能 | | | | | | | | | 性较小，市场对于旺季空间预期谨慎。目前尚未看到欧线节日备货季 ...

分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任 何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 | 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/21 星期一 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 3755.40 | 3723.80 | 3690.80 | 3635.20 | | 前日收盘价 3765.40 | 3737.8 ...

申万期货品种策略日报-黑色20250418 分析师：冉宇蒙 从业资格号：F3085160 投资咨询号：Z0016375 | | | | | 电话：021-50586040 邮箱：ranym@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 焦炭01合约 | 焦炭05合约 | 焦煤01合约 | 焦煤05合约 | 动力煤01合约 | 动力煤05合约 | | | 前日收盘价 前2日收盘价 | 1597 1600 | 1539 1559 | 1006 1020 | 867 899 | 801 801 | 801 801 | | | 前日收盘价 | 3131 | 3022 | 3225 | 3170 | 679 | 761 | | | 涨跌 涨跌幅% | -3 -0.2% | -20 -1.3% | -14 -1.3% | -33 -3.6% | 0 0.0% | 0 0.0% | | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 热卷01合约 | 热卷05合约 | 铁矿石01合约 | 铁矿石05合约 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper, zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations; aluminum, nickel prices may have short - term oscillatory movements [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices rose. Current low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing rapidly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The decline in real - estate data has narrowed. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, RMB exchange rate, inventory, and basis [1] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose. Recent concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as the US dollar, RMB exchange rate, and smelting output [1] Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices fell 0.5%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and Trump may impose tariffs on semiconductors, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, after alumina reaches a low level, the profit on the futures market is low, and bottom - fishing sentiment in the market has fermented, leading to a small rebound at the low level on the futures market, but supply is still sufficient, and the upside space for prices is limited. In April, downstream demand continued to pick up, and the order volume and operating rate in sectors such as profiles and alloys increased moderately. Considering the uncertainty of tariff policies, Shanghai aluminum may mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices fell 0.2%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and coupled with improved market sentiment, nickel prices strengthened at a low level. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources previously proposed that the PNBP policy may be implemented before Eid al - Fitr, which may lead to a further increase in nickel ore prices and transfer the cost to downstream enterprises. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, so prices may continue to rise. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. With multiple factors at play, nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1] Market Data - Copper: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 75,870 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 9,254 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 213,400 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,850 tons [2] - Aluminum: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 19,730 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,385 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 37.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,150 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,825 tons [2] - Zinc: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,260 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,595 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 31.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 195,350 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 4,800 tons [2] - Nickel: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 126,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,090 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 15,745 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 202.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 204,528 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 1,938 tons [2] - Lead: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,928 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 16.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 281,625 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 1,500 tons [2] - Tin: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 257,770 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,490 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 31,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 264.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,850 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 5 tons [2]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：金银回调，油价续涨 李强指出，在政策制定实施和政府工作的方方面面，都要有稳预期的意识，特别 要结合形势变化，提高政策针对性、有效性。要讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时 间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影响。欧洲央行 如期下调利率 25 个基点，为自去年 6 月以来第七次下调利率。欧央行行长拉加 德表示，经济前景笼罩在极大的不确定性中，经济下行风险有所增加。美国 3 月 新屋开工数下降 11.4%，创一年来最大降幅，高房价和抵押贷款利率高企导致需 求疲软，使得建筑商对破土动工缺乏信心。美国能源部备忘录报道称，特朗普政 府考虑砍掉将近 100 亿美元清洁能源资金，可能会在氢能源、碳捕捉、ETC 领域 削减（政府）资金支持。 重点品种：玻璃、原油、贵金属 玻璃：周四，玻璃期货延续弱势，市场情绪仍有分歧，商品普遍受到关税冲击导 致的对于内需消费的观望情绪主导。玻璃自身目前库存缓慢去化，市场亦步亦趋。 中期角度，目前经过 2 个月的玻璃累库，等待开工后采购需求推动消化玻璃存量 库存。本周玻璃生产企业库存 5624 万重箱，环比增 ...

20250418申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 787.16 | 790.72 | 8154.00 | 8218.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 781.60 | 784.12 | 8233.00 | 8290.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 5.56 | 6.60 | -79.00 | -72.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.71% | 0.84% | -0.96% | -0.87% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 205198 | 39109 | 345538 | 93871 | | | | 成交量 | 449355 | 21247 | 666713 | 20188 | | | | 现货升贴水 | -6.46 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market withstood the downward pressure from countervailing tariffs, and the implied volatility significantly declined. The subsequent focus is on China's effective policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to cautiously go long [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different periods (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 3765.40, 3737.80, 3710.60, and 3656.60 respectively, with increases of 26.60, 27.60, 33.00, and 29.80, and increases of 0.71%, 0.74%, 0.90%, and 0.82% respectively. The trading volumes were 35237.00, 27620.00, 55799.00, and 10594.00 respectively, and the open interests were 26834.00, 42726.00, 141593.00, and 56169.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -19051.00, 10271.00, 53.00, and 1575.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different periods were 2656.80, 2644.80, 2633.60, and 2599.40 respectively, with increases of 20.60, 21.20, 21.40, and 20.20, and increases of 0.78%, 0.81%, 0.82%, and 0.78% respectively. The trading volumes were 13351.00, 10558.00, 28211.00, and 4407.00 respectively, and the open interests were 10651.00, 14318.00, 44853.00, and 17663.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -6551.00, 2153.00, -1545.00, and -225.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different periods were 5551.20, 5483.60, 5406.60, and 5280.20 respectively, with increases of 26.00, 44.40, 51.20, and 53.80, and increases of 0.47%, 0.82%, 0.96%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 34523.00, 27886.00, 44149.00, and 10689.00 respectively, and the open interests were 21987.00, 47876.00, 99918.00, and 47082.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -14575.00, 10685.00, 3537.00, and 2096.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different periods were 5845.80, 5749.80, 5653.80, and 5488.00 respectively, with increases of 38.20, 49.60, 59.40, and 60.80, and increases of 0.66%, 0.87%, 1.06%, and 1.12% respectively. The trading volumes were 44139.00, 39973.00, 156019.00, and 26102.00 respectively, and the open interests were 29741.00, 55797.00, 168300.00, and 74750.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -20911.00, 8196.00, -2771.00, and -3479.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -27.60, -12.00, -67.60, and -96.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -31.60, -14.80, -85.60, and -106.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value was 3772.22, with a decrease of 0.02%. The total trading volume was 2090.12 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 122.37 billion lots [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value was 2659.90, with an increase of 0.05%. The total trading volume was 713.71 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 37.88 billion lots [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value was 5557.01, with an increase of 0.00%. The total trading volume was 1482.83 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 113.65 billion lots [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value was 5839.56, with an increase of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 2129.48 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 173.20 billion lots [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries had different changes in the CSI 300 industry index. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries decreased by -0.11%, -0.33%, -0.07%, and -0.86% respectively; while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries increased by 0.57%, 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries decreased by -0.32% and -0.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The previous values of the basis for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) relative to the CSI 300 were -6.82, -34.42, -61.62, and -115.62 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -17.42, -49.02, -82.02, and -137.62 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The previous values of the basis for IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 were -3.10, -15.10, -26.30, and -60.50 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -13.90, -28.70, -38.50, and -72.90 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis for IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 were -5.81, -73.41, -150.41, and -276.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -16.46, -102.06, -190.26, and -317.06 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 were 6.24, -89.76, -185.76, and -351.56 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -15.55, -121.55, -232.35, and -400.95 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.16%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by -0.21%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.09% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.13%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.49% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - China and Cambodia agreed to build a China - Cambodia community with a shared future in the new era and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year." They also exchanged more than 30 bilateral cooperation texts [2]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, which was the 7th rate cut since last June [2]. - There were discussions about whether to remove Fed Chairman Powell before his term ends next year, but no final decision has been made [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the 2025 industrial energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnostic service, covering 12 high - energy - consuming fields [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will carry out a rectification of the advertising market order [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported electrolytic capacitor paper from Japan for 5 years [2]. - In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and flat compared with the same period last year, and the inventory level was above the warning line [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes mainly declined. In the previous trading day, the stock indexes rose, with the real - estate sector leading the rise and the automobile sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.03 trillion yuan. IH2504, IF2504, IC2504, and IM2504 increased by 0.78%, 0.71%, 0.47%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - On April 16, the margin trading balance decreased by 51.79 billion yuan to 18024.09 billion yuan [2].