20250421申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 投资咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7081 | 7311 | 7143 | 7048 | 7222 | 7124 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7074 | 7303 | 7140 | 7030 | 7196 | 7099 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 26 | 25 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.36% | 0.35% | | 场 | 成交量 | 7676 | 48148 | 259595 | 2484 | 28254 | 2 ...

| 集运欧线数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/4/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新观点 | | | | | | 策略方向 | | | 集运欧线：上周五06合约收于1533点，下跌1.11%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1316美 | | | | | | | | | 元/TEU，环比下跌40美元/TEU，基本对应于04.21-04.27期间欧线的订舱价，是年 | | | | | | | | | 内仅次于3月底当周的低价。5月上旬运价小幅调降，马士基5月第一周开舱延续 | | | | | | | | | 1800美元的大柜报价，沿用4月底报价，5月第二周大柜小幅调降50美元至1750美 | | | | | | | | | 元，CMA再次调降5月起报价至大柜2245美元，较3月底报价还低100美元。5月初大 | | | | | | 震荡 | | | 柜均值在2000美元左右，略低于当前4月底报价均值，5月上旬迎来旺季拐点可能 | | | | | | | | | 性较小，市场对于旺季空间预期谨慎。目前尚未看到欧线节日备货季 ...

分析师声明 作者具有期货投资咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任 何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 | 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/21 星期一 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 3755.40 | 3723.80 | 3690.80 | 3635.20 | | 前日收盘价 3765.40 | 3737.8 ...

申万期货品种策略日报-黑色20250418 分析师：冉宇蒙 从业资格号：F3085160 投资咨询号：Z0016375 | | | | | 电话：021-50586040 邮箱：ranym@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 焦炭01合约 | 焦炭05合约 | 焦煤01合约 | 焦煤05合约 | 动力煤01合约 | 动力煤05合约 | | | 前日收盘价 前2日收盘价 | 1597 1600 | 1539 1559 | 1006 1020 | 867 899 | 801 801 | 801 801 | | | 前日收盘价 | 3131 | 3022 | 3225 | 3170 | 679 | 761 | | | 涨跌 涨跌幅% | -3 -0.2% | -20 -1.3% | -14 -1.3% | -33 -3.6% | 0 0.0% | 0 0.0% | | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 热卷01合约 | 热卷05合约 | 铁矿石01合约 | 铁矿石05合约 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper, zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations; aluminum, nickel prices may have short - term oscillatory movements [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices rose. Current low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing rapidly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The decline in real - estate data has narrowed. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, RMB exchange rate, inventory, and basis [1] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose. Recent concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as the US dollar, RMB exchange rate, and smelting output [1] Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices fell 0.5%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and Trump may impose tariffs on semiconductors, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, after alumina reaches a low level, the profit on the futures market is low, and bottom - fishing sentiment in the market has fermented, leading to a small rebound at the low level on the futures market, but supply is still sufficient, and the upside space for prices is limited. In April, downstream demand continued to pick up, and the order volume and operating rate in sectors such as profiles and alloys increased moderately. Considering the uncertainty of tariff policies, Shanghai aluminum may mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices fell 0.2%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and coupled with improved market sentiment, nickel prices strengthened at a low level. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources previously proposed that the PNBP policy may be implemented before Eid al - Fitr, which may lead to a further increase in nickel ore prices and transfer the cost to downstream enterprises. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, so prices may continue to rise. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. With multiple factors at play, nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1] Market Data - Copper: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 75,870 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 9,254 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 213,400 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,850 tons [2] - Aluminum: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 19,730 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,385 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 37.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,150 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,825 tons [2] - Zinc: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,260 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,595 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 31.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 195,350 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 4,800 tons [2] - Nickel: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 126,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,090 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 15,745 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 202.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 204,528 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 1,938 tons [2] - Lead: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,928 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 16.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 281,625 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 1,500 tons [2] - Tin: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 257,770 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,490 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 31,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 264.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,850 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 5 tons [2]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：金银回调，油价续涨 李强指出，在政策制定实施和政府工作的方方面面，都要有稳预期的意识，特别 要结合形势变化，提高政策针对性、有效性。要讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时 间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影响。欧洲央行 如期下调利率 25 个基点，为自去年 6 月以来第七次下调利率。欧央行行长拉加 德表示，经济前景笼罩在极大的不确定性中，经济下行风险有所增加。美国 3 月 新屋开工数下降 11.4%，创一年来最大降幅，高房价和抵押贷款利率高企导致需 求疲软，使得建筑商对破土动工缺乏信心。美国能源部备忘录报道称，特朗普政 府考虑砍掉将近 100 亿美元清洁能源资金，可能会在氢能源、碳捕捉、ETC 领域 削减（政府）资金支持。 重点品种：玻璃、原油、贵金属 玻璃：周四，玻璃期货延续弱势，市场情绪仍有分歧，商品普遍受到关税冲击导 致的对于内需消费的观望情绪主导。玻璃自身目前库存缓慢去化，市场亦步亦趋。 中期角度，目前经过 2 个月的玻璃累库，等待开工后采购需求推动消化玻璃存量 库存。本周玻璃生产企业库存 5624 万重箱，环比增 ...

20250418申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 787.16 | 790.72 | 8154.00 | 8218.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 781.60 | 784.12 | 8233.00 | 8290.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 5.56 | 6.60 | -79.00 | -72.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.71% | 0.84% | -0.96% | -0.87% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 205198 | 39109 | 345538 | 93871 | | | | 成交量 | 449355 | 21247 | 666713 | 20188 | | | | 现货升贴水 | -6.46 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market withstood the downward pressure from countervailing tariffs, and the implied volatility significantly declined. The subsequent focus is on China's effective policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to cautiously go long [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different periods (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 3765.40, 3737.80, 3710.60, and 3656.60 respectively, with increases of 26.60, 27.60, 33.00, and 29.80, and increases of 0.71%, 0.74%, 0.90%, and 0.82% respectively. The trading volumes were 35237.00, 27620.00, 55799.00, and 10594.00 respectively, and the open interests were 26834.00, 42726.00, 141593.00, and 56169.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -19051.00, 10271.00, 53.00, and 1575.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different periods were 2656.80, 2644.80, 2633.60, and 2599.40 respectively, with increases of 20.60, 21.20, 21.40, and 20.20, and increases of 0.78%, 0.81%, 0.82%, and 0.78% respectively. The trading volumes were 13351.00, 10558.00, 28211.00, and 4407.00 respectively, and the open interests were 10651.00, 14318.00, 44853.00, and 17663.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -6551.00, 2153.00, -1545.00, and -225.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different periods were 5551.20, 5483.60, 5406.60, and 5280.20 respectively, with increases of 26.00, 44.40, 51.20, and 53.80, and increases of 0.47%, 0.82%, 0.96%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 34523.00, 27886.00, 44149.00, and 10689.00 respectively, and the open interests were 21987.00, 47876.00, 99918.00, and 47082.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -14575.00, 10685.00, 3537.00, and 2096.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different periods were 5845.80, 5749.80, 5653.80, and 5488.00 respectively, with increases of 38.20, 49.60, 59.40, and 60.80, and increases of 0.66%, 0.87%, 1.06%, and 1.12% respectively. The trading volumes were 44139.00, 39973.00, 156019.00, and 26102.00 respectively, and the open interests were 29741.00, 55797.00, 168300.00, and 74750.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -20911.00, 8196.00, -2771.00, and -3479.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -27.60, -12.00, -67.60, and -96.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -31.60, -14.80, -85.60, and -106.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value was 3772.22, with a decrease of 0.02%. The total trading volume was 2090.12 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 122.37 billion lots [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value was 2659.90, with an increase of 0.05%. The total trading volume was 713.71 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 37.88 billion lots [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value was 5557.01, with an increase of 0.00%. The total trading volume was 1482.83 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 113.65 billion lots [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value was 5839.56, with an increase of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 2129.48 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 173.20 billion lots [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries had different changes in the CSI 300 industry index. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries decreased by -0.11%, -0.33%, -0.07%, and -0.86% respectively; while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries increased by 0.57%, 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries decreased by -0.32% and -0.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The previous values of the basis for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) relative to the CSI 300 were -6.82, -34.42, -61.62, and -115.62 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -17.42, -49.02, -82.02, and -137.62 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The previous values of the basis for IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 were -3.10, -15.10, -26.30, and -60.50 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -13.90, -28.70, -38.50, and -72.90 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of the basis for IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 were -5.81, -73.41, -150.41, and -276.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -16.46, -102.06, -190.26, and -317.06 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 were 6.24, -89.76, -185.76, and -351.56 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -15.55, -121.55, -232.35, and -400.95 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.16%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by -0.21%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.09% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.13%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.49% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - China and Cambodia agreed to build a China - Cambodia community with a shared future in the new era and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year." They also exchanged more than 30 bilateral cooperation texts [2]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, which was the 7th rate cut since last June [2]. - There were discussions about whether to remove Fed Chairman Powell before his term ends next year, but no final decision has been made [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the 2025 industrial energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnostic service, covering 12 high - energy - consuming fields [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will carry out a rectification of the advertising market order [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported electrolytic capacitor paper from Japan for 5 years [2]. - In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and flat compared with the same period last year, and the inventory level was above the warning line [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes mainly declined. In the previous trading day, the stock indexes rose, with the real - estate sector leading the rise and the automobile sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.03 trillion yuan. IH2504, IF2504, IC2504, and IM2504 increased by 0.78%, 0.71%, 0.47%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - On April 16, the margin trading balance decreased by 51.79 billion yuan to 18024.09 billion yuan [2].

| | 黑色产业链基差及价差日报20250418 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 钢材：国内宏观落地，海外扰动弹性降低，基本面成交继续支撑，发改委明确继续压减粗钢产量但具 | | | | | 体细节尚未出台，阶段性宏观氛围有转暖迹象且国内政策预期再起，短期震荡走强后偏弱看待。 | | | | | 铁矿石：中期供需失衡压力较大，铁矿石下半年发运量预计增长较快，关注后续钢厂复产进度，短期 | | | | 摘要 | 缺乏驱动整体跟随成材，宏观情绪阶段性转暖可能带来波段反弹行情，铁矿石短期反弹后偏弱看待。 | | | | | 煤焦：终端用钢需求的表现不及预期，在铁水产量趋于回落的预期下、双焦价格上方承压，关注铁水 | | | | 高位产量的持续情况。 | | | | | | 铁合金：钢厂减产预期下双硅价格难以向上突破，仍需持续关注厂家停减产动向。 | | | | 品种 | 观点 | | 策略方向 | | | 关税影响对钢材为豁免状态，影响不直接。间接出口影响尚未实际兑现，不过情绪的短期释放还是会有所压制，终 | | | | | 端需求表现偏弱，基本面角度没有出现继续转好的情况， ...

| | 1、央行公告称，4月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2455亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量2455 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2455亿元。Wind数据显示，当日659亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1796亿元。 | | | 2、习近平同柬埔寨首相洪玛奈举行会谈，两国领导人一致同意携手构建新时代全天候中柬命运共同体，宣布2025年为 | | | "中柬旅游年"。习近平同柬埔寨首相洪玛奈共同见证中柬双方交换30多份双边合作文本，涵盖产供链合作、人工智 | | | 能、发展援助、海关检验检疫、卫生、新闻等领域。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰会见美国英伟达公司总裁兼首席执行官黄仁勋时指出，中国市场投资和消费潜力巨大，产业转 型升级加快推进，是新一轮科技革命和产业变革的最佳应用场景，始终是外资企业投资和贸易的沃土。欢迎包括英伟 | | 宏观 | 达公司在内的更多美资企业深耕中国市场，在中国尽展产业优势和能力，进而在全球竞争中赢得先机。 | | 消息 | 4、商务部回应是否在工作层面与美方展开沟通：中国商务部与美方对口部门一直保持工作层沟通，中方的立场 ...