1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show no significant improvement, and oil prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the market has gradually digested existing negative factors. In the long - term, whether Trump's tariff policy will lead to a substantial recession in the US economy may be the key variable determining the long - term trend [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil**: After the third round of US - Iran negotiations, the Iranian foreign minister said there were serious differences, while US officials claimed the meeting was "positive and productive". On April 25, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.14% to 496.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 492.6 yuan/barrel at night. Overseas, WTI rose 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.17 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.18 dollars/barrel to 65.83 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 25, FU was reported at 3028 yuan/ton, LU at 3477 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 217.5 cents/gallon. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged by the cost side and can't have an independent market. The high - sulfur variety's strong support pattern hasn't changed, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety shows no significant pressure for now [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose on April 25 compared to April 24. Among spot prices, OPEC - basket decreased by 2.04%, while some others like Brent increased. The spreads such as SC - Brent and SC - WTI also changed. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory increased by 0.06% from April 11 to April 18, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 2.09% [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all rose on April 25 compared to April 24. Some spot prices like IFO380 in Rotterdam increased, while others remained unchanged. The spreads such as Singapore high - low sulfur spread increased. Singapore's inventory increased by 5.41% from April 11 to April 18 [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Internal Price**: On April 25, the SC main contract rose 1.14% to 496.1 yuan/barrel and closed at 492.6 yuan/barrel at night. The spot price of Shengli crude oil increased by 0.41 to 63.21 dollars/barrel [9]. - **External Price**: On April 25, WTI rose 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.17 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.18 dollars/barrel to 65.83 dollars/barrel. Spot prices of Dubai and Oman decreased by 0.22%, while Brent increased by 0.42% [10]. - **Macro - environment**: Trump's tariff policy is shifting from "full - scale pressure" to "selective relaxation". The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025. The US - Iran negotiation had no substantial progress, and the US - Russia conflict may intensify [3][11][12]. - **Supply**: Kazakhstan's oil production exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 26% in April, triggering a trust crisis in OPEC+ production cuts. Some OPEC+ members plan to increase production in June. Russia's new well - drilling speed is at a five - year high [14][15]. - **Demand**: Pakistan's domestic oil reserves increased by 23% in 2024, but it still depends on imports. Global oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be the slowest in five years, with an increase of 730,000 barrels/day, 300,000 barrels/day lower than last month's forecast [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of April 18, US EIA commercial crude inventory increased by 244,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.476 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 2.353 million barrels. API data showed a large decrease in US crude inventory last week [17]. - **Market Information**: The US Secretary of State said the US won't expand sanctions on Russia, while Trump mentioned possible financial sanctions. The Qatar - Gaza talks made some progress, and Hamas is willing to release hostages and seek a 5 - year cease - fire. Putin's press secretary said Trump's views on the Ukraine conflict are basically in line with Russia's [18]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts including WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, showing the historical trends and current situations of the oil and fuel oil industries [19][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The consumption of lithium carbonate has not received clear policy support, and the futures and spot markets still lack positive factors. The lithium carbonate market remains in a state of continuous inventory accumulation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On April 25, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated narrowly below 70,000 yuan. The main contract LC2507 closed at 68,180 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day's close. The spot price of lithium carbonate was loose and fluctuated at a low level, with the average transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the weekly output of lithium carbonate in the week of April 25 was 16,900 tons, a 2.81% decrease from the previous week, but still at a relatively high historical level. As of the week of April 25, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,864 tons, a 0.20% increase from the previous week. Meanwhile, the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 17.37 GWh, a 10.71% increase from the previous week [1]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from April 1 - 20, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market increased by 20% year-on-year but decreased by 11% month-on-month. The wholesale of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers increased by 23% year-on-year but decreased by 7% month-on-month [1]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Price Monitoring - **Futures Data**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate decreased from 68,300 yuan/ton on April 24 to 68,180 yuan/ton on April 25, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 4,914 lots to 217,370 lots, a 2.31% increase. The trading volume increased by 3,793 lots to 108,177 lots, a 3.63% increase. The number of lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts increased by 240 to 31,795, a 0.76% increase [3]. - **Spot Data**: The market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 69,600 yuan/ton on April 25 compared to April 24. The market price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged at 790 yuan/ton-degree and 930 yuan/ton-degree respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 57,800 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. The prices of power-type ternary materials and power-type lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly [5]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.6%. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 488 tons to 16,900 tons, a 2.81% decrease. The output of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 1.68 GWh to 17.37 GWh, a 10.71% increase. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 259 tons to 131,864 tons, a 0.20% increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On April 25, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 68,200 - 71,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 69,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 478,000 units, a 20% year-on-year increase but an 11% month-on-month decrease. The wholesale of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 530,000 units, a 23% year-on-year increase but a 7% month-on-month decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali is nearing completion, and it has produced over 11,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate. Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, which took effect on April 2. Tianhua New Energy's subsidiary obtained a mining license for a ceramic clay (lithium-containing) mine. Sibanye Stillwater terminated its lithium project in Nevada. China discovered a 2,800-kilometer lithium deposit, increasing its global lithium reserves share from 6% to 16.5%. Keliyuan's Yichun lithium mine expanded its production capacity [8][9][10]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, as well as the inventory, output, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, and the output of batteries [11][17][19].

能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 乙二醇近期供需矛盾不大，库存回升压制反弹高度 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 上周五，乙二醇华东现货价格4205元/吨，较前一日下跌60元 /吨。主力合约收盘 4179 元/吨，较前一交易下跌 1.67%。基差为 41 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓 解。WTI原油主力收63.17美元/桶，布油收65.83美元/桶。供给端， 内蒙古中化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23 日附近停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。 新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙 特一套70万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个 月左右。上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月 底重启，现推迟至年底，陕西榆林化学有两条线计划4月份检修。 乐天美国70万吨产能计划4月份检修，马 ...

能源化工 聚酯日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 成本端支撑走强带动聚酯原料偏强运行，关注需求端边际变化 1. PX & PTA 上周五，PX 主力合约 PX2509 收 6230 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 1.04%，基差为-297 元/吨。PTA 主力合约 PTA2509 收 4400 元/吨，较前 一交易日上涨 0.69%,基差为 80 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓解。 WTI 原油主力收 63.17 美元/桶，布油收 65.83 美元/桶。供应端，PX：中 海油惠州 150 万吨 3 月 29 日检修 50 天左右，扬子石化重整检修至 5 月 上旬，PX 有降负预期，天津石化 PX 计划 6-7 月份检修，海南炼化计划 4- 5 月检修，浙石化 250 万吨装置已重启，盛虹炼化 400 万吨原计划 4 月检 修，目前推迟至 5 月。PX 国内装置开工率为 73.2%，亚洲开工率为 68.6%。 PTA：台化兴业 150 万吨计划 5 月 6 日检修，逸盛大连 225 万吨计划 4 月 26 日检修 6 周，另 375 万吨 4 月 2 ...

能源化工 聚酯日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 25 日 星期五 成本端油价存在技术面修复，利空情绪出尽后 PX、PTA 或上行 昨日，短纤主力合约PF2506收6028元/吨，较前一交易日下跌1.05%。 华东市场主流价为 6280 元/吨，较前一日下跌 20 元/吨，基差为 262 元/ 吨。国内涤纶短纤产量在 16.31 万吨左右，较上周总量上涨 1.19%。本周 涤纶短纤行业开工 82.11%，较上周开工上涨 0.96%。国内终端织造平均 订单天数约为 8.66 天，较上周减少 0.3 天。 通惠期货研发部 一、日度市场总结 1. PX & PTA 昨日，PX主力合约PX2509收6166元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.93%， 基差为-231 元/吨。PTA 主力合约 PTA2509 收 4370 元/吨，较前一交易日 下跌 0.86%,基差为-10 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓解。 WTI 原油主力收 62.77 美元/桶，布油收 65.6 美元/桶。供应端，PX：盛 虹炼化 400 万吨装置 4 月有重整计划，预计 PX 降负荷，扬子石化重整检 修 ...

OPEC成员国公开拒绝执行补偿性减产，供应过剩担忧再起 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 1 周度总结 原油： 【价格】过去一周国际原油市场呈现先扬后抑的震荡走势，政策与地缘的双向扰动主导本周油价。具体来看，期初OPEC+成员国提交 补偿性减产计划、美国为获取谈判筹码再次对伊朗实施制裁、特朗普放弃寻求解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，共同推动油价走高，WTI原油 主力合约冲高至64.87美元/桶。期末哈萨克斯坦能源部长公开拒绝执行OPEC+补偿性减产，且消息人士称OPEC+或于6月加速增产，市 场对供应过剩担忧再起，WTI迅速回落至62.76美元/桶，总体来看，全周呈现"急涨急跌"形态。 【供应】哈萨克斯坦能源部长公开表示，该国石油产量将优先考虑国家利益而非OPEC+配额，并强调其三大油田由外资控制无法实施 减产。数据显示，该国4月原油产量已达185万桶/日，较OPEC+配额（146.8万桶/日）超产26%。这立刻引发市场对OPEC+减产协议执 行力的信任危机。同时消息人士称部分OPEC+成员国拟在6月进一步扩大增产 ...

宏观消息扰动加剧油价波动，聚酯原料市场情绪偏谨慎 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 1 周度总结 PX & PTA：PX、PTA估值修复后窄幅震荡。成本端，特朗普声称可能下调对中国的关税税率，风偏改善，OPEC+成 员国希望6月加快石油增产，原油盘面再度受到冲击。供给端，PX国内装置开工率为74.4%（环比-3.4%），亚洲 开工率71.2%（环比-1.3%）。逸盛大连225万吨装置4月26日开始检修，持续6周。另外375万吨装置重启。福建百 宏250万吨装置已重启。恒力计划4月28日对惠州PTA-2（250万吨）装置检修，5月10日附近对大连PTA-2装置 （220万吨）检修。PTA开工率在88.1%（+7%）。需求端，聚酯负荷目前为93.9%（环比+0.5%）。宏观消息对油价 的扰动仍存，但盘面修复或加快。PX、PTA估值逐步回归基本面逻辑。 行情回顾 宏观消息反复或引发盘面加快修正 下游或跟随油价承压 关税引发需求悲观预期 PTA去库利多作用被削弱 国内开工进一步下滑， 进口到港量增加对冲利好作用 ...

新能源锂电 通惠期货•研发产品系列 碳酸锂日报 2025 年 04 月 24 日 星期四 碳酸锂基本面维持弱势，宏观变动或引发双向波动加剧 一、 日度市场总结 4 月 23 日，碳酸锂期货窄幅波动，主力合约 LC2507 收 68980 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘上涨 1.68%。碳酸锂现货报 价松动，低位波动，电池级碳酸锂现货成交均价较前一交易 日下跌 450 元/吨。 有色网数据显示，4 月 18 日当周碳酸锂的周度产量为 17388 吨，环比前一周减少 3.20%，周度产量变化幅度较 小，整体处于历史绝对高位；截至 4 月 18 日当周碳酸锂周 度库存为 131605 吨，环比增加 0.45%，同时磷酸铁锂电池周 产量为 15.69GWh，环比增加 1.62%。 据乘联会数据，4 月 1-20 日，新能源车市场零售同比增 长 20%，环比下降 11%。全国乘用车厂商新能源批发同比去 年同期增长 23%，环比下降 7%。 上周碳酸锂周度产量仍旧维持高位，下游产量也有恢 复，但是相比于年初的高产量仍有差距；碳酸锂产业链中间 环节的传导也并不通常，整体上碳酸锂仍旧呈现持续累库的 局面。 期货方面，昨日碳酸锂期货 ...

宏观有色 通惠期货•研发产品系列 热点聚焦 2025 年 4 月 24 日 星期四 "特朗普衰退交易"预期下的商品走势之（六） 在对抗中谋发展，从内需出发稳中求进 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 美国利用关税对中国发难一事的第一阶段目前已进入尾声，中美完 全脱钩不排除是此次对抗的可能结局之一，从最近的市场吹风以及政策 发布看，国内正在为新一轮的刺激政策做准备，以稳定中国经济总量， 同时在结构上填补中美对抗造成的空缺，本文将梳理近期已发布的政策 信息，同时探讨 4 月政治局会议可能的发力方向。 一季度 GDP 增速达到 5.4%，表现偏强，但是 CPI 同比下降 0.1%， PPI 同比下降 2.5%，可以看出，特朗普关税落地前的"抢订单"行情明 显，实质需求偏弱的特点并未出现实质性改变；考虑到 4 月的关税冲击 行情大开大合，实质冲击也将在二季度逐步显现， ...

能源化工 乙二醇日报 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日，乙二醇华东现货价格 4200 元/吨，较前一日下跌 55 元/ 吨。主力合约收盘 4180 元/吨，较前一交易上涨 0.59%。基差为 30 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓 解。WTI原油主力收64.39美元/桶，布油收67.22美元/桶。供给端， 内蒙古中化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23 日附近停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。 新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙 特一套55万吨装置近期重启，此前于2月份停车检修。沙特一套70 万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个月左右。 上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月底重启， 现推迟至年底，内蒙兖矿40万吨计划3月下旬停车1个月，陕西榆林 化学有两条线计划4月份检修。乐天美国70万吨产能计划4月份检修， 马来西亚石油75万吨产能计划4-5 ...