Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Expected to Rise but Didn't, Short - term Electrolytic Copper Pricing May Return to Fundamentals - Copper Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: September 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Copper price's interest - rate - cut trading may be over. Without new marginal changes, it may return to fundamentals, and the current price may be overvalued compared to the fundamentals of electrolytic copper. The support level can still underpin the copper price before the "recession narrative" begins. Attention should be paid to downstream buyers' acceptance of the current price and the Fed's stance in the September meeting [6] Weekly Summary - **Macroeconomics**: The non - farm payrolls data was in line with expectations. The dollar index remained strong after the data release due to pre - trading and concerns about European debt. Copper prices rose and then fell [4] - **Copper Concentrate**: Low growth at the mine end continued to suppress TC prices. As of September 8, the TC quote remained at - 41 dollars, unchanged from a week ago [4] - **Electrolytic Copper**: After the interest - rate - cut expectation was fulfilled, the price may return to fundamentals in the short term. The price failed to break through the long - term resistance level of 80,000 yuan. Without new marginal changes, the high price may suppress purchasing power, but the downside is limited before the recession narrative starts [4] - **Downstream Demand**: Inventory did not accumulate during the off - season. The upcoming peak season replenishment may strongly support the copper price [5] Group 3: Electrolytic Copper Market Price 1.1 Upstream Market Price - TC prices remained at a low level. The short - term rise in copper prices pushed up long - term demand expectations and further suppressed TC prices [4] 1.2 Spot and Futures Market Price - The expectation of interest - rate cuts pushed up the premium of warehouse receipts [15] 1.3 Overseas Position Data - The speculative atmosphere overseas increased significantly [21] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory 2.1 Upstream Supply - The growth rate of the supply side was limited [30] 2.2 Production and Inventory - The total production and operating rate of electrolytic copper showed certain trends. The cost and profit of production, as well as the weekly inventory, were also presented in the data [37][39][41] Group 5: Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption 3.1 Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield - The dollar index was unexpectedly strong after the non - farm payrolls data [44] 3.2 US Economic Data - The non - farm payrolls data in August was unexpectedly low, which further boosted the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Multiple economic indicators such as employment, market confidence, retail sales, and inventory were presented [53][54][55] 3.3 Chinese Economic Data - In July, the new loans turned negative. The PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Multiple economic indicators such as M1, M2, social financing, and consumer spending were presented [61][67] 3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data - The power grid and new energy sectors provided support. Data on monthly demand, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate were presented [74]

Group 1: Report Core View - The central price of crude oil may continue to decline in a volatile manner, but geopolitical pulse risks need to be guarded against. The core contradiction lies in the loosening of internal discipline within OPEC+ and the passive production cuts caused by damaged refining capacity in Russia. The current flattening of the futures curve indicates increasing supply pressure in the near - term, and Saudi Arabia's production increase expectations may break the low - inventory support logic. Attention should be paid to the intensity of geopolitical events' impact on actual supply [6]. Group 2: Daily Market Summary Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 5, 2025, the SC main contract closed at 481.0 yuan/barrel, down 0.5% from the previous day's settlement price, with an intraday amplitude exceeding 2%. WTI and Brent fell 2.0% and 1.9% to $63.34 and $66.88 per barrel respectively. The spreads of SC against Brent and WTI strengthened to $0.49/barrel (+$1.87) and $4.03/barrel (+$0.86) respectively, indicating the relative strength of crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region. The Brent - WTI spread narrowed by $0.08 to $3.54, and the cross - regional arbitrage window across the Atlantic marginally contracted [2]. Supply - side of the Industrial Chain - Iraq is continuously pushing for OPEC+ to renegotiate production quotas (claiming on September 6 that September exports will reach 3.45 million barrels per day, about 20% above the quota), and Saudi Arabia plans to compete for market share, causing oil prices to decline under pressure. However, the attack on Russia's Irskiy refinery and Ukraine's continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities may accelerate the decline in Russian refined oil exports and indirectly support crude oil processing demand. Oman's new storage facility of tens of millions of barrels may enhance the flexibility of spot trade in the Middle East [3]. Demand - side of the Industrial Chain - Spain's crude oil imports in July increased by 17.8% year - on - year. Indian refineries avoided high - priced US oil and switched to purchasing West African/Middle Eastern crude oil, reflecting the structural demand differentiation in the spot market. Hungary was forced to purchase Russian oil, and Slovakia maintained pipeline transportation, indicating the resilience of the EU's dependence on Russian oil [4]. Inventory - side of the Industrial Chain - For the week ending August 29, US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels and a previous decrease of 2.392 million barrels. EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 0.838 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.068 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.236 million barrels. EIA refined oil inventories increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 0.598 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.786 million barrels [5]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - On September 5, 2025, the SC futures price was 482.00 yuan/barrel, up 0.21% from the previous day. WTI was $61.97/barrel, down 2.16%, and Brent was $65.67/barrel, down 1.81%. Among spot prices, the OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $71.32/barrel, while Brent dropped 3.10% to $65.40/barrel, Oman dropped 0.57% to $69.30/barrel, etc. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI also showed certain changes. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and API inventories all increased to varying degrees. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the crude oil processing volume also decreased slightly [8]. Fuel Oil - On September 5, 2025, the FU futures price was 2,759.00 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. LU was 3,392.00 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. NYMEX fuel oil dropped 1.61% to 229.04 cents/gallon. Spot prices of various fuel oils in different regions also showed different degrees of decline. There were also changes in paper - cargo prices, port delivery prices, and spreads [9]. Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - On September 7, the Slovak economy minister stated that the night attack on the "Friendship" oil pipeline did not affect supply, and oil continued to be transported to Slovakia. The OPEC representative of Iraq said that OPEC+ might agree to increase daily oil production by 130,000 - 140,000 barrels on Sunday. On September 6, Iraq's deputy oil minister said that Iraq was in negotiations with ExxonMobil on major energy projects. Iraq's daily oil exports in August were 3.38 million barrels, and are expected to reach 3.4 - 3.45 million barrels in September. On September 5, Saudi Arabia hoped that OPEC+ would consider restoring more oil production by the end of next year to regain market share [10][11][12]. Demand - India will continue to buy Russian oil. India's largest refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, avoided buying US crude oil in the latest tender and instead purchased 2 million barrels of West African crude oil and 1 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil [13]. Inventory - Iraq's SOMO and Oman's OQ company signed two memorandums of understanding regarding oil storage and Iraqi oil trade. One of the memorandums involves developing an integrated crude oil storage project in Oman's Ras Markaz with an initial capacity of 10 million barrels [14]. Market Information - Hungary's foreign minister said that Hungary had no choice but to buy Russian oil [15]. Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides 21 data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent front - month contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and other data [16][18][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market's operation center is weak this week, influenced by changes in the macro - crude oil supply - demand pattern. OPEC+ plans to increase production, which may lead to an increase in overall supply, affecting the cost support of pure benzene. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from increased imports in October and the impact of styrene inventory build - up, resulting in a generally weak trend for pure benzene prices [2]. - Styrene shows a "fall - stop - rebound" trend this week. Although the current valuation is in a reasonable range, the medium - term pressure remains. There is a supply - demand mismatch after maintenance in September - October, high inventory levels, and the cost of pure benzene is unstable, so the styrene market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - to - medium term, with limited rebound space [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Prices**: On September 5, the styrene main contract rose 1.75% to 7,107 yuan/ton with a basis of 18 (-32 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 1.32% to 6,049 yuan/ton [2]. - **Costs**: On September 5, Brent crude oil closed at $63.5/barrel (-$0.5/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $67.0/barrel (-$0.6/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,835 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a 9.8% increase; pure benzene port inventory was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), an 8.0% increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene will have plant maintenance in September, with expected supply reduction. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. EPS capacity utilization is 52.5% (-5.8%), ABS is 69.0% (-1.8%), and PS is 61.0% (+1.1%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by OPEC+ production increase and the approaching end of the US traditional fuel consumption peak season, the oil market is under pressure. Although there are short - term supply disruptions, the overall supply expectation is increasing, which caps the naphtha price and affects the cost support of pure benzene. The market focuses on supply pressure from imports in October and styrene inventory build - up, making the pure benzene price trend weak [2]. - **Styrene**: After the price fell below 6,900 yuan/ton, it rebounded slightly due to short - covering and plant maintenance extension. However, the medium - term pressure remains due to supply - demand mismatch, high inventory, and unstable pure benzene cost, with limited rebound space and high inventory realization risk [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures rose 1.75% to 7,107 yuan/ton, while the spot price fell 0.19% to 7,486 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 64.00% to 18 yuan/ton [5]. - Pure benzene futures rose 1.32% to 6,049 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price rose 1.28% to 5,935 yuan/ton. International prices also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - The pure benzene domestic - CFR spread increased by 3.85% to -364.1 yuan/ton, and the East China - Shandong spread increased by 83.33% to -15 yuan/ton [5]. - Brent crude oil fell 0.77% to $63.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil fell 0.90% to $67.0/barrel. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Styrene production in China increased by 2.14% to 37.6 million tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.31% to 45.3 million tons [6]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 9.78% to 19.7 million tons, and domestic factory inventory increased by 1.67% to 21.5 million tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 7.97% to 14.9 million tons [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - Among pure benzene downstream products, styrene capacity utilization increased from 78.1% to 79.7%, and caprolactam increased from 89.4% to 90.4%. Phenol decreased from 75.7% to 75.2%, and aniline increased from 67.6% to 68.0% [7]. - Among styrene downstream products, EPS capacity utilization decreased from 58.3% to 52.5%, ABS decreased from 70.8% to 69.0%, and PS increased from 59.9% to 61.0% [7]. 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to worsen, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated by South China and Northeast China [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS and PS inventories, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][14][19][22][23][25][26][30][31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue its low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term. High inventory and weak demand limit the upside of prices, but cost support at low levels may prevent significant drops. Attention should be paid to the game between cost support and inventory reduction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Contract and Basis**: On September 5, the ethylene glycol main - contract price slightly decreased by 2 yuan to 4355 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The East China spot price rose to 4495 yuan/ton, expanding the basis to 95 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped 52 yuan to - 7 yuan/ton [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main - contract position decreased by 9575 lots to 292,800 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 10.1% to 162,500 lots, indicating reduced market activity and increased capital wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate slightly decreased by 0.1% to 70.86%, mainly due to a 0.3% decline in coal - based unit operating rate, while oil - based operating rate remained at a high of 74.84%. Coal - based production was in continuous loss of 334 yuan/ton [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand was still sluggish, and polyester sales lacked continuous boost [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main - port inventory rapidly accumulated to 485,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. Zhangjiagang inventory soared 40.6% to 180,000 tons. Despite a 39.7% decrease in arrival volume to 101,700 tons, slow port shipments led to prominent inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4355 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 10.12%. The East China spot price increased by 0.45% to 4495 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 55.91% to 145 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 3.23% to - 32 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 115.56% to - 7 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 378.57% to 39 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: The coal - based production profit increased by 16.77% to - 278 yuan/ton, while data for other production methods were not available [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.15% to 70.9%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 0.41% to 65.4%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 74.8%. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main - port inventory increased by 13.69% to 486,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 180,000 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 101,700 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 5, the East China US - dollar market was firm in the morning and trended warmer in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market price was stable at around 3970 yuan/ton. The South China market price was stable at around 4480 yuan/ton with weak demand. The US crude oil inventory increased, and the oil price continued to fall. The domestic operating rate slightly declined, and the basis strengthened under low - inventory support, with the East China price around 4473 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rate, downstream polyester unit operating rate, East China main - port ethylene glycol inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue the volatile and weak pattern, with market focus on the开工 dynamics of lithium mines and salt plants in Jiangxi. The futures rebound space is limited by the rapid convergence of the basis. Potential variables include whether CATL's suspension triggers other salt plants to passively support prices and the marginal support of nickel - cobalt salt price increases on ternary material costs [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes** - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous trading day. The basis narrowed significantly from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 353,600 lots, and trading volume soared to 712,200 lots, indicating increased market activity [2] 2. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side** - The proportion of lithium carbonate output from the spodumene smelting end has exceeded 60%, while that of lepidolite has dropped to 15%. Although the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41% in September, the suspension of CATL's Yichun mining area may intensify local supply disturbances, and the resumption rhythm of salt plants needs attention [3] - **Demand Side** - The downstream shows the characteristic of "weak peak season". In August, the retail penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 55.3%, but the cost pressure of power batteries was transmitted to the mid - and upstream. The transaction price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells fell to 0.324 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary materials also declined continuously. The demand for electrolyte and anode materials was boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking, but over - capacity restricted the price increase space [3] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts** - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 141,100 tons, but the absolute value was still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed was slow [3] 3. Market Price Monitoring - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous day. The basis narrowed from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate market price was 74,700 yuan/ton, down 1.06% from the previous day. The price of power - type ternary materials decreased by 0.08% to 118,700 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% to 33,995 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.29% to 141,136 tons [6] 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes** - On September 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,869 yuan/ton, down 886 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, and there will be a stage of tight supply [7] - **Downstream Consumption** - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on September 3, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 55.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 1.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale this year was 8.926 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8] - **Industry News** - From August 21 - 28, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Affected by the Congo (Kinshasa) extension policy, China's cobalt intermediates will face raw material shortages in the future, and prices have upward momentum. Since August 10, CATL's Yichun mining area in Jiangxi has been shut down, and the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [9][10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a weak oscillation, with SC performing weaker than the external market. The undecided OPEC+ production increase decision, anti - seasonal accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories, and weakening distillate oil demand weaken the fundamental support. However, the faster - than - expected pace of gasoline destocking provides some support. Geopolitical factors bring regional disturbances but have limited impact on global supply and demand. Technically, the SC contract has broken below the short - term moving average and the basis has weakened, with a risk of further decline, but the sideways movement of WTI and Brent may limit the decline. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ policy direction and the seasonal demand switch in the US [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 4, the price of the SC main contract dropped to 481 yuan/barrel (-2.47%), while WTI and Brent prices remained at 63.77 dollars/barrel and 67.39 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly from 1.62 dollars/barrel to - 0.02 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by 1.64 dollars to 3.6 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive three spread fell from 1.2 yuan/barrel to 0.5 yuan/barrel, indicating weakened support for near - term contracts [1]. - **Supply - side**: Iraq's oil exports in August remained at 3.38 million barrels per day without significant fluctuations. Indonesia's gasoline imports decreased by 22% year - on - year due to import quota restrictions, and Shell suspended supplies at some gas stations, increasing the risk of regional supply shortages. The uncertainty of the OPEC+ production increase decision is a core disturbing factor, and if production increase continues, it may further pressure oil prices [2]. - **Demand - side**: US refinery demand is divided. EIA data shows that the derived demand for crude oil production decreased slightly from 20.015 million barrels per day to 19.82 million barrels per day, but gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, the largest decline in nearly 5 months and the seventh consecutive week of decline, reflecting the remaining consumption resilience before the end of the travel peak season. Distillate fuel demand declined significantly from 5.6131 million barrels per day to 5.1089 million barrels per day, suggesting a weakening of industrial and logistics demand [3]. - **Inventory - side**: US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.415 million barrels (expected - 2.031 million barrels), offsetting the previous week's destocking, and inventories at Cushing and strategic petroleum reserves also increased. However, the larger - than - expected decline in gasoline inventories offset some of the negative factors, indicating the continuation of structural destocking of terminal oil products. Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased significantly, and the spot discount remained, pressuring the heavy distillate market [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures all declined on September 4 compared to the previous day. Among them, SC decreased by 12.2 yuan/barrel (-2.47%), WTI decreased by 0.43 dollars/barrel (-0.67%), and Brent decreased by 0.51 dollars/barrel (-0.76%). Most spot prices also declined, and spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI all narrowed. US commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories all increased, while the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decreased slightly [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: The futures prices of FU, LU, NYMEX fuel oil, etc. all declined on September 4 compared to the previous day. Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased by 1.689 million tons, a 7.33% increase. Some US distillate inventories increased, while others decreased [8]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: From August 22 - 29, US EIA crude oil imports increased, and Iraqi oil exports in August averaged 3.38 million barrels per day. In Indonesia, due to import restrictions, some Shell gas stations suspended fuel supplies, and gasoline imports decreased by 22% year - on - year as of the end of August [9][10]. - **Demand**: From August 22 - 29, US EIA distillate fuel derived demand and crude oil derived demand decreased, and gasoline production also decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: From August 22 - 29, US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories reached the highest level since the week of October 14, 2022, and gasoline inventories had the largest decline since the week of April 25, 2025, with a seventh consecutive week of decline. Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased significantly, and some energy - related futures warehouse receipts decreased [12][14]. - **Market Information**: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which may affect crude oil prices. Qatar raised the official selling prices of its crude oil. US energy minister said that oil and gasoline prices are at a healthy level. Indonesian state - owned oil company is seeking a $2.5 billion short - term loan [16]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [17][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's "anti-involution" policies since July 2025 aim to address cut - throat competition, guide industrial upgrading, and promote high - quality development, impacting multiple futures market sectors [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy in the refining and chemical industry will have a structural and gradual impact on crude oil supply and demand, accelerating the clearance of inefficient capacity in the short term and promoting high - quality development and product structure optimization in the long term [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Impact on Different Market Sectors - **New Energy Sector**: The policy significantly boosted the new energy sector, with polysilicon futures leading the rally, rising 64.42% from July 1 to September 1, and lithium carbonate showing a rise of 20.93% during the same period [3]. - **Black - Series Varieties**: The impact on black - series varieties was differentiated. Coking coal rose 30.51%, coke 11.70%, and rebar only 3.28% from July 1 to September 1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: The "anti - involution" policy in the chemical industry is deepening from system construction to special rectification. Glass rose 6.76%, while PVC was almost flat [4]. Current Situation of the Refining and Chemical Industry - The refining and chemical industry faces severe over - capacity, with a capacity utilization rate of less than 80% and an over - capacity of about 60 million tons. The industry's operating income profit margin has been declining [5]. - Refinery operating rates are low, indicating weak demand. In March 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate was only 70.3%, and Shandong's local refinery operating rate hit a 23 - month low in July [6]. - China's crude oil processing volume is on a downward trend, with different scenarios forecasted by Zhuochuang Information in 2025 [6]. Content of the Upcoming Reform Plan - The plan includes shutting down small refineries with an annual capacity of less than 2 million tons, which could potentially reduce crude oil processing demand by about 30 million tons/year (about 603,000 barrels/day) [5]. - It aims to upgrade about 40% of petrochemical facilities that have been in use for over 20 years through multi - dimensional evaluations [7]. - It encourages the industry to shift from producing bulk chemicals to special fine chemicals for high - tech fields [7]. Long - term Impact on the Refining and Chemical Industry - The policy will drive the industry towards large - scale, integration, and high - end transformation, increasing the proportion of high - value - added chemical products and changing the quality and structure of crude oil demand [7]. - The "oil - reduction and chemical - increase" trend may lead to a shortage of naphtha supply, driving the popularity of alternative raw materials and increasing import dependence on high - value - added chemicals [8]. Impact on the Global Crude Oil Market - China's adjustment of refining policies may slow down or even decrease its crude oil import growth rate, leading to an adjustment in international crude oil trade flows [9]. - The policy may reduce the demand for high - sulfur heavy crude oil and benefit the low - sulfur light crude oil market [9]. - Although China's potential demand reduction will intensify the global supply - demand surplus, the final trend of global oil prices depends on OPEC+ policies, the global macro - economy, and geopolitical events [9].

1. Market Data Variation Analysis - SHFE copper main contract price dropped 0.57% to 79,840 yuan/ton, LME copper price slightly fell to 9,974 dollars/ton, and the market continued weak adjustment [1]. - Spot premium and discount generally weakened, with the discount of flat - copper narrowing by 30 yuan and that of wet - copper widening to - 20 yuan/ton, indicating low downstream receiving willingness [1]. - LME (0 - 3) discount slightly narrowed to - 66.89 dollars/ton but remained deeply discounted, showing overseas spot pressure persisted [1]. - LME copper positions increased by 3,511 lots to 281,336 lots, with greater divergence among long - position funds during price correction [2]. - SHFE copper warrant inventory decreased slightly, with 699 tons reduced in Guangdong, but overall market trading was restricted by high copper prices, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply Side - Overseas mine disturbances intensified, with production issues at Teck Resources' QB copper mine in Chile and a short - term output decline at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine due to ball - mill failures, increasing concerns about copper concentrate supply tightness [3]. - LME copper inventory increased continuously and COMEX inventory rose to 284,400 short tons, indicating overseas hidden inventory pressure was still being released [3]. Demand Side - Domestic downstream demand remained weak, with the discount of Shandong spot premium and discount widening to 150 yuan/ton, and orders of North China fine - copper rod enterprises not improving significantly after resumption, and the operating rate and orders of the enameled wire industry both declining [4]. - High copper prices suppressed the restocking willingness of small and medium - sized processing enterprises, and the seasonal off - season characteristics in power and construction fields continued, resulting in light market trading [4]. Inventory Side - SHFE inventory in China decreased slightly but at a slower pace; with the marginal increase in LME inventory and overseas delivery pressure, the total global visible inventory remained high, and weak demand could not drive substantial inventory reduction [5]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations, constrained by weak demand and overseas inventory pressure on the upside and supported by supply disturbances and costs on the downside [6]. - Supply - side mine disturbances may trigger squeeze - out expectations, but the "Golden September and Silver October" demand has not materialized, and with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations after the unexpected ADP data, copper prices will fluctuate within the channel without new drivers [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA absolute prices have fallen from their highs. With the cost - side oil price stabilizing and the positive news exhausted, the market focus returns to fundamentals, and the downstream demand becomes the main contradiction. The demand recovery is hard to boost raw material prices [2]. - The absolute price of MEG has also fallen from its high. The MEG port inventory has been continuously declining significantly, and the supply - side increase space is limited, so there is still support at the bottom [2]. - PF and PR mainly follow cost changes. The short - fiber and bottle - chip prices fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to the actual performance of terminal demand at the end of the peak season [3]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PX: Valuation returns to fundamentals as the hype on the news side is over, and there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery [5][21]. - PTA: The market circulation is abundant, and there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery [5][34]. - MEG: Domestic production continues to rise, and there may be support at the valuation bottom under low inventory [5][43]. - PF and PR: Mainly follow cost changes, and attention should be paid to the actual performance of terminal demand at the end of the peak season [3]. 2. PX Market Analysis - **Macro - factors**: After the US Labor Day, the seasonal demand inflection point is approaching. The market generally expects OPEC+ to suspend production increases in October. Geopolitical risks are still the biggest potential positive factor in the crude - oil market. In the short - term, sanctions and inventory decline provide main support, and in the long - term, the global economic recovery rhythm should be focused on [22]. - **Cost - related**: Naphtha prices are stable, and PX - N benefits are compressed. There are differences in short - process profits, and the refined oil price difference shows an upward trend [25][28]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic PX device load is currently around 83.3%, a 1.3% month - on - month decline; the Asian device load is currently 75.6%, a 0.7% month - on - month decline [2][31][32]. 3. PTA Market Analysis - **Processing - fee aspect**: PTA processing fees are under pressure, and attention should be paid to device maintenance dynamics under low processing fees [35]. - **Supply - side**: The PTA mainland area's operating rate is around 70.4%, a 1.2% decrease. Polyester production shows no signs of increase, and the operating rates of weaving and dyeing industries have declined [38][40]. 4. MEG Market Analysis - **Price and profit**: The MEG price has fallen, and processing profits are under pressure [44]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic MEG operating rate is 75.13% (a 1.97% increase), and the synthetic - gas - to - MEG operating rate is 77.74% (a 3.51% decrease). From September 1st to September 7th, the planned arrival at the main port is about 9.8 tons [2][47]. - **Inventory**: The main - port inventory is 44.9 tons, a 5.1 - ton month - on - month decrease [48]. - **Demand - side**: The profits of polyester products have recovered at a low level, but the overall economic efficiency is still average. The sales - to - production ratio has not recovered significantly, and the transactions in the Light Textile City have increased periodically. The short - fiber inventory is relatively stable, while the inventories of other varieties are under pressure [51][54][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the short term, the copper market may continue to fluctuate at a high level. The current price is approaching resistance, and there is a short - term need for a correction. Supply - side factors such as Chilean mine disruptions and domestic smelting maintenance expectations provide support, but the widening overseas discount and the increase in domestic social inventory suppress the upside. On the demand side, the game between the peak - season expectation and high - price suppression will dominate the price fluctuations. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the macro level may boost risk appetite, but the adjustment risk caused by the repeated policy expectations should be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Main Contract and Basis On September 2, the SHFE price of the main copper futures contract rose slightly to 79,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day, while the LME copper price fell slightly to 9,875 dollars/ton. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation. The premium of premium copper rose slightly from 300 yuan/ton to 305 yuan/ton, while the premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper fell by 30 yuan and 20 yuan to 135 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened further to - 86.27 dollars/ton, indicating pressure on the overseas spot end [1]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume LME inventory decreased continuously, with a 3.46% decline on September 2 to 19,501 tons, hitting a recent low. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 100 tons to 158,775 tons, but the domestic social inventory (SMM) increased to 132,100 tons due to the replenishment of imported goods. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 699 tons in a single day, with accelerated regional destocking. However, in the North China market, due to logistics restrictions and cautious downstream purchasing at high prices, the trading activity was low [2]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile faced a short - term decline in production due to equipment failures, increasing overseas copper mine supply disturbances. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 445,000 tons, showing that the overall supply had not significantly contracted. The domestic smelting end was about to enter the centralized maintenance period, and combined with the logistics restrictions in North China, the spot circulation volume might be tightened periodically [3]. - **Demand Side**: High - priced copper significantly suppressed consumption. In July, the air - conditioner production decreased by 14.2% month - on - month, and the white - goods production schedule in September decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, with the air - conditioner production schedule decreasing by 12% year - on - year. The terminal demand was still weak. However, under the expectation of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the demand for copper tubes and power projects might improve marginally, and the copper tube start - up rate in September was expected to rise slightly [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The domestic social inventory increased continuously to 132,100 tons, mainly due to the arrival of imported copper. However, the visible inventories of SHFE and LME continued to decline, especially the LME inventory, which decreased by 8.9% compared with August 27, indicating a marginal tightening of overseas supply - demand. Subsequently, as the import window narrowed and the peak - season demand started, the domestic inventory pressure might gradually ease [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price and inventory data for September 2, 2025, September 1, 2025, and August 27, 2025, including SMM 1 copper, spot premium and discount of different types of copper, LME (0 - 3) discount, SHFE and LME prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, as well as their changes and change rates [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 2, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 699 tons to 19,501 tons, all of which were from Guangdong warehouses. The spot premium in Guangdong remained firm when the copper price rose [8]. - On September 2, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile faced a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [8]. - On September 1, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.5 tons to 132,100 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly due to the continuous arrival of imported copper, and the consumption was weak due to high copper prices. In the future, SMM expected that the imported copper would continue to arrive, and the copper inventory would decrease month - on - month as the demand recovered in the "Golden September and Silver October" [8]. - On September 1, in the North China market, logistics was restricted during the Tianjin Summit, and the copper price increase suppressed downstream buying interest, resulting in low trading activity [9]. - On August 31, Chile's copper production in July increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 445,214 tons [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][18][21][23][27][28][31][33]