乙二醇港口累库压力凸显，关注煤制装置减产可能 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续两日稳定于3822元/吨， 但近期走势显示价格从3938元/吨持续回落至当前水平，市场呈现弱势震 荡。华东现货价格同步持平于3855元/吨，期现基差维持33元/吨的窄幅波 动，反映现货市场交投情绪谨慎。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量单日增加25557手至355406手，创近期新 高，而成交量大幅攀升至26.17万手，较前一日增长45.9%，显示资金入场 活跃但多空分歧加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率维持67.63%低位，其中煤制开工率连续两周稳 定于54.29%，油制开工率持平于76.23%。尽管乙烯法制工艺利润持续压缩 （如DOW化学法利润周降43元/吨至-1134元/吨），但油制装置仍维持高负 荷运行，煤制利润周内腰斩至112元/吨或压制后续开工弹性。 需求端 ：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷持平于63.43%，终端 需求未现季节性改善信号。下游刚性补库为主，缺乏投机性需求支撑。 库存端 ：华东主港库存周增10.7%至73.2万吨，其中张家港库存单周激增 27.9%至27.5万吨，创 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is under pressure due to the expectation of loose supply, and weak demand dominates the oil price trend. In the short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, geopolitical risk premiums should be focused on. Currently, the market logic is still dominated by weak demand, but if OPEC+ signals production cuts before the December meeting, the oil price may rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On November 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.46% to 446 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent fell 1.5% and 1.5% respectively to $58.76/barrel and $63.08/barrel. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.6/barrel to $0.92/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened from $4.97/barrel to $5.24/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened slightly to $4.32/barrel [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: As of November 18, the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil increased by 13,497 lots to 178,364 lots, while the net short position of WTI increased by 33,023 lots to 42,487 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply Side**: The number of U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 419 this week. The U.S. Interior Department plans to expand drilling in the West Coast and Arctic regions. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire, and Rosneft cut dividends, which increased non - OPEC supply disruptions. India's Reliance Industries stopped processing Russian oil, but Kuwait's export of heavy crude oil to India showed the flexibility of Middle East supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2 (expected 50.2), and the weak service industry dragged the composite PMI to remain at 52.5. The U.S. refinery capacity assessment bill was passed, which may support long - term demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: In the week of November 14, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.603 million barrels, previous value increased by 6.413 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.698 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.346 million barrels); EIA gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.945 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventories increased by 0.171 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.637 million barrels) [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On November 21, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The SC - Brent spread increased by 27.16% to $1.03/barrel, the SC - WTI spread decreased by 5.73% to $4.94/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 11.74% to $3.91/barrel. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.80%, and the U.S. refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.67% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: On November 21, 2025, FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil futures prices all declined. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.40% to 576 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 5.53% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: The U.S. oil rig count increased to 419 in the week ending November 21. India's Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait. China's Western Crude Oil Pipeline has transported over 200 million tons of oil. The Trump administration plans to open new areas in the West Coast and Arctic for drilling. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire [7][8]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 18, diesel speculators increased their net long positions. The U.S. House of Representatives passed two energy bills. India's Reliance Industries will stop processing Russian oil [9]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day, and the futures warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil also remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spread statistics, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of benzene and styrene are under pressure due to weak US demand and rising inventories [1]. - For benzene, overseas sentiment support is fluctuating, with potential risks of US demand decline and domestic port inventory rising. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient [2]. - Styrene shows a "double - weak" pattern of inventory and supply. Supply - side support exists, but demand improvement is slow, and the market is driven by device dynamics and inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Prices**: On November 21, the styrene main contract closed down 1.33% at 6,507 yuan/ton with a basis of 53 (+33 yuan/ton); the benzene main contract closed down 1.57% at 5,508 yuan/ton. The prices of upstream Brent crude, WTI crude, and naphtha also declined [2][5]. - **Cost**: On November 21, Brent crude closed at $59.0/barrel (-$0.4/barrel), WTI crude at $62.8/barrel (-$0.7/barrel), and East China benzene spot at 5,360 yuan/ton (-95 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking; benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased slightly. Weekly production was 34.3 tons (-0.1 ton), and capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.1.2 Views - **Benzene**: Overseas sentiment support is unstable. The US gasoline inventory is low, but as US refinery operations recover, the gasoline crack spread is falling. Domestically, port inventory is rising, the basis is weak, and downstream demand is insufficient [2]. - **Styrene**: It shows a "double - weak" pattern of inventory and supply. The market is concerned about the resumption of maintenance devices. Demand is in the off - season, and the supply side provides support, with the market driven by device dynamics and inventory changes [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Prices of Styrene and Benzene - Styrene futures and most benzene prices declined on November 21 compared to November 20, while the styrene basis increased by 165% [5]. 3.2.2 Production and Inventory of Styrene and Benzene - From November 14 to 21, styrene and benzene production in China decreased by 0.43% and 1.67% respectively. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while benzene port inventory increased by 30.09% [6]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization - Among benzene downstream industries, the capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.3%, that of caprolactam and phenol increased, and that of aniline decreased. Among styrene downstream industries, the capacity utilization of EPS, ABS, and PS all increased [7]. 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on multiple Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the IAEA. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on benzene and styrene prices, styrene - benzene spreads, import and domestic costs of benzene, inventories of styrene, benzene, ABS, PS, and EPS, and the weekly capacity utilization of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline, with data sources mainly from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][12][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market continues to be weak. Recently, the arrival rhythm of imports has been relatively dense, and port inventories have significantly increased, putting pressure on the spot market. The spot discount has widened, and the basis has further weakened, indicating a shift in market sentiment from stable to weak. Although low gasoline inventories provide some support for Asian aromatics, the overall external processing margin is weakening, and its support for the domestic market is limited. Overseas arbitrage spreads have been repaired, which may attract some South Korean supplies to flow outward, alleviating China's subsequent import pressure to some extent, but this effect is more medium - term. Domestically, supply is moderately increasing, while downstream demand is insufficient. The profitability of major benzene - consuming products like caprolactam and phenol - acetone is severely compressed, and their operating rates are mostly weak or only at a rigid level, unable to effectively consume pure benzene. In general, pure benzene is still in a weak - equilibrium state dominated by inventory in the short term, with the supply - demand mismatch intensifying spot pressure and prices showing weak fluctuations. Future focus should be on changes in import rhythm and signs of increased operating rates due to active resumption of downstream plants or improved profitability [2]. - Styrene shows more resilience than pure benzene, presenting a structural divergence. Although the price difference between the futures and spot markets has adjusted, the inventory in East China continues to decline, reflecting the combined effect of tight supply and improved short - term exports. Currently, styrene's operating rate is relatively low, and plant maintenance effectively restricts supply, keeping inventory in a downward trend. The market is also concerned about the resumption of plant operations at the end of the month. Once the resumptions are concentrated, the tight supply pattern may be alleviated, and the inventory trend may reverse, which requires continuous monitoring [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: On November 20, the main styrene futures contract closed up 0.55% at 6,595 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 (+19 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene futures contract closed up 1.14% at 5,595 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,420 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), Brent crude oil closed at $59.4/barrel (-$1.3/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $63.5/barrel (-$1.4/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month decline, continuing the destocking trend but still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene's operating rate and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S products has recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS is 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS is 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices | Product | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,559.0 yuan/ton | 6,595.0 yuan/ton | 0.55% | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,594.0 yuan/ton | 6,620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Styrene Basis | 1.0 yuan/ton | 20.0 yuan/ton | 190000% | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,533.0 yuan/ton | 5,596.0 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,390.0 yuan/ton | 5,455.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | $664.0/ton | $664.0/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | $829.9/ton | $829.9/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | $677.2/ton | $677.2/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Price Difference | -408.0 yuan/ton | -345.7 yuan/ton | 15.28% | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Price Difference | -160.0 yuan/ton | -45.0 yuan/ton | 71.88% | | Brent Crude Oil | $60.7/barrel | $59.4/barrel | -2.14% | | WTI Crude Oil | $64.9/barrel | $63.5/barrel | -2.13% | | Naphtha | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | [5] 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory | Product | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 34.4 tons | 34.3 tons | -0.43% | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 45.4 tons | 44.7 tons | -1.67% | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 17.5 tons | 14.8 tons | -15.16% | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 18.9 tons | 18.8 tons | -0.70% | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 11.3 tons | 14.7 tons | 30.09% | [6] 3.2.3 Operating Rate | Product | 2025/11/14 Capacity Utilization | 2025/11/21 Capacity Utilization | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 69.3% | 69.0% | -0.30% | | Caprolactam (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 86.0% | 88.2% | 2.18% | | Phenol (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 67.3% | 78.7% | 11.46% | | Aniline (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 80.2% | 75.7% | -4.49% | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 51.6% | 56.3% | 4.64% | | ABS (Styrene Downstream) | 71.8% | 72.4% | 0.60% | | PS (Styrene Downstream) | 55.4% | 55.9% | 0.50% | [7] 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000 in September, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources and replacing the previous department dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, styrene and pure benzene import - domestic cost differences, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. The data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [13][18][22][28][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level range in the short term. The supply - side disturbances from the Congo accident are limited, and the release of smelting capacity restricts the upside space. The demand - side power investment has a significant supporting effect, but the weakness of the real - estate chain limits the increase. The repeated expectations of the Fed's policy at the macro - level make the market sentiment cautious. The expected fluctuation range of the SHFE copper main contract is 84,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and the central price of LME copper is 10,500 - 10,900 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes** - On November 19, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 86,030 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day but down 470 yuan/ton from November 13. The premium of flat - water copper widened to 50 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 35.33 US dollars/ton, a new high in nearly two weeks [1] - On November 18, the LME copper open interest decreased by 4,891 lots to 319,542 lots, and the LME inventory decreased by 4.14% on a single day. In China, the SMM - monitored spot purchase sentiment index below 86,000 yuan/ton rose to 3.13, and the low price stimulated the release of downstream replenishment demand [1] - **Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. The bridge collapse accident at the Kalando copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may affect local transportation, but the 60kt/a copper smelting project signed by Kefei Technology and the LEDYA Group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the discovery of high - grade ore bodies in the Mt Oxide project in Australia by TrueNorth Copper indicate medium - term supply increments. The end of the maintenance of smelters in North China has put pressure on the spot premium, and the domestic refined copper supply has become marginally looser [2] - **Demand Side**: Power infrastructure provides strong support. The 100MW wind power project of the Songzi Babao of the National Energy Group has been approved, and the supporting 160MWh energy storage facility will drive the demand for copper materials. The SMM spot purchase and sales sentiment index rose to 3.13/3.26 (purchase/sales), indicating that the rigid - demand buying was active below 86,000 yuan/ton. However, there are no significant signs of recovery in the construction and consumer electronics sectors [2] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories are differentiated. The LME inventory decreased by 4.1% to 58,352 tons in a week, while the SHFE inventory increased to 140,500 tons, highlighting the domestic visible inventory pressure. However, the SMM inventory in the country's mainstream regions decreased by 0.73 million tons to 19.38 million tons on a month - on - month basis, mainly due to the small amount of imported goods. It is expected that the closure of the import window may continue the de - stocking trend [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM:1 copper premium copper price on November 19 was 86,140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.05%. The flat - water copper premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of 66.67%. The wet - process copper discount remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The SHFE price was 86,030 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.29%. The LME inventory decreased by 2,522 tons to 58,352 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.14% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On November 19, the supply of North China electrolytic copper market will return to normal due to the end of the maintenance of upstream smelters, which has put pressure on the spot premium, and the short - term trading activity in the market tends to heat up [6] - On November 18, Kefei Technology signed a general contract for the 60kt/a copper smelting project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. TrueNorth Copper made significant progress in the new discovery area of the Mt Oxide project in northern Queensland, revealing a continuous copper - cobalt - silver mineralization system [6][7] - On November 17, a bridge at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed, resulting in 49 deaths and 20 serious injuries. As of November 17, the SMM inventory in the country's mainstream regions decreased by 0.73 million tons to 19.38 million tons on a week - on - week basis. It is expected that the weekly copper inventory will decrease slightly in the future [7][8] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][10][12][13][14][18][21][23][27][29][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue to oscillate strongly, but the risk of a high - level correction should be noted. The bullish sentiment driven by the capital side and the improvement in fundamentals resonate, but the lack of follow - up in the spot market may restrict the upside space. The price may face a phased adjustment under certain circumstances. It is expected to remain strong in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the fluctuation center in the range of 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On November 19, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, up 5,780 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark and reaching a new high since June 2024. The basis further weakened to - 8,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,780 yuan/ton [1] - The open interest of the main contract increased to 503,000 lots, and the trading volume soared to 1.767 million lots, indicating that funds are accelerating into the market to drive up prices [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The price of spodumene concentrate remained flat at 8,670 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose 100 yuan/ton to 4,565 yuan/ton. The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at a high of 75.34%. The production capacity of the Jiada Lithium Mine of Dazhong Mining is 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, but the short - term supply increase is limited [2] - **Demand side**: From November 1 - 9, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased 5% year - on - year but increased 16% month - on - month. The demand for energy storage and power batteries remained resilient. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate materials increased, and the cell production schedule improved month - on - month, supporting lithium carbonate consumption [2] - **Inventory and warrants**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons. The spot market transaction was light, but the expectation of accelerated inventory reduction in the futures market fermented, and the warrant pressure was marginally relieved [2] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue to oscillate strongly, but the risk of a high - level correction should be noted. The price may face a phased adjustment if new energy vehicle sales do not meet expectations or the warrant pressure becomes obvious before delivery. It is expected to remain strong in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the fluctuation center in the range of 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On November 19, the main lithium carbonate contract was 99,300 yuan/ton, up 6.18% from the previous day; the basis was - 8,600 yuan/ton, down 125.13% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract was 503,132 lots, up 3.88%; the trading volume was 1,767,428 lots, up 18.80% [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 90,700 yuan/ton, up 1.11% from the previous day; the market price of spodumene concentrate remained flat at 8,670 yuan/ton; the market price of lepidolite concentrate was 4,565 yuan/ton, up 2.24% from the previous day [5] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 148,500 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from the previous day; the price of power ternary materials was 143,050 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 38,165 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Spot Market Quotations - On November 19, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 89,837 yuan/ton, up 1,870 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream enterprises were rational and cautious in procurement, and the overall market transaction was rare. The lithium salt plant maintained a high operating rate, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the level of October [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption - From November 1 - 9, the national new energy passenger vehicle market retail was 265,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. The national new energy vehicle wholesale was 306,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 59% [7] 3.3 Industry News - On November 19, most concept stocks in the lithium - battery industry chain rebounded, and many stocks such as Rongjie Co., Ltd. and Yongshan Lithium Industry hit the daily limit. The main lithium carbonate futures contract exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton for the first time since June 2024 [9] - At the "Tenth International Summit on Power Battery Applications (CBIS2025)", many entrepreneurs said that solid - state batteries are the ultimate direction of power batteries, but solid - liquid hybrid batteries are the current realistic breakthrough for industrialization. The application scenarios of lithium batteries are expanding, but there is caution about the rapid implementation of solid - state batteries [9] - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Jiada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources Mining Plan" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, which is a key step in its strategic transformation [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. The high capacity utilization rate on the supply side and the expected launch of lithium mine projects suppress the long - term price, while the accelerated spot destocking and the resilient demand for new energy vehicles support the near - month contracts. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the negative feedback risk caused by the poor cost - pressure transmission of downstream cell enterprises, and the price fluctuations may widen due to intensified year - end capital games [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes**: On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly by 40 yuan to 86,580 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened from - 4,540 yuan/ton to - 4,380 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased slightly by 2,473 lots to 529,000 lots, and the trading volume rebounded significantly by 26.9% to 1,145,000 lots [1] - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: On November 12, the price of spodumene concentrate rose by 130 yuan to 7,995 yuan/ton, with continuous cost - side pressure. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased to 75.34%. Coupled with the progress of the 50,000 - ton lithium carbonate project of Dazhong Mining's Jiada Lithium Mine, the medium - term supply increase expectation suppressed market sentiment [2] - **Demand Side**: In October, 1.4 million new energy vehicles were retailed, a year - on - year increase of 17%, driving the demand for power batteries. The prices of cathode materials were stable with a slight increase. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 245 yuan to 36,605 yuan/ton, but the cell prices remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks. On November 7, the inventory decreased by 3,405 tons compared with October 31 to 124,000 tons, and the destocking speed accelerated [2] - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback risk and price fluctuations [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the lithium carbonate main contract, basis, main - contract open interest, main - contract trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all showed varying degrees of increase on November 12 compared with the previous day. The lithium mica concentrate market price remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory decreased. The prices of various types of cells remained stable [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On November 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. The market sentiment was high, and downstream material factories were cautious. The supply side had a high overall operating rate, and it was expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November would be roughly the same as that in October. The demand in the power and energy - storage markets was strong, and significant destocking of lithium carbonate was expected in November [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 31, the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market retail volume was 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The wholesale volume was 1.614 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 12.061 million, a year - on - year increase of 30% [7] - **Industry News** - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Jiada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources Mining Plan" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After reaching full capacity, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, marking a step closer to obtaining the mining license [9] - On October 23, the overall price of the echelon market remained stable. The cost - side pressure, supply - side capacity release, and demand - side cautious purchasing formed a hedging effect [9] - According to the National Market Regulatory Administration, China is about to enter the stage of large - scale retirement of power batteries. In 2024, the domestic power - battery recycling volume exceeded 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market scale of over 48 billion yuan. It is expected that the domestic market scale will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030 [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [13][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC has adjusted its forecast for the global oil market in the third quarter from a supply shortage to a supply surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased supply from the organization itself. There is a need to be vigilant about the impact of the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on the market [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, 2025, WTI and Brent futures prices rebounded significantly, with WTI closing at $60.99 per barrel (previous day $59.53), a gain of 2.45%, and Brent at $65.09 per barrel (previous day $63.57), a gain of 2.39%. SC crude oil prices fell slightly to 458.8 yuan per barrel (previous day 460.4 yuan). The SC - Brent spread changed from $1.08 per barrel to - $0.66 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from $5.12 per barrel to $3.44 per barrel, indicating the relative weakness of domestic SC crude oil compared to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.1 per barrel (previous day $4.04), suggesting tighter supply - demand in the European market [2]. b. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October remained at 7.8 million tons, showing supply resilience. Chevron plans to increase production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030, and the possible restart of oil drilling leases off the California coast in the US may lead to a marginal loosening of long - term supply. However, short - term disruptions remain, such as the UK's plan to restrict LNG export services to Russia from 2026 and the potential impact of the non - approval of Lukoil's sanction waiver extension [3]. - **Demand**: Refinery demand is differentiated. Japan's refinery operating rate dropped slightly to 90.6% (previous week 91.4%), and the decrease in US gasoline inventory slowed, indicating a marginal slowdown in demand. Indian state - owned refiners' procurement of Russian ESPO crude shows support in Asian spot demand, and the US strategic petroleum reserve's purchase of 1 million barrels reflects clear policy support [4]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels (previous value + 6.52 million barrels), with a slower inventory build - up but still at a high level. Product inventories decreased, reflecting seasonal demand shifts. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 354,000 liters to 10.38 million liters, but gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, showing a differentiated terminal replenishment rhythm [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC adjusted its third - quarter global oil market forecast from a shortage to a surplus, with a supply surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. There is a need to be vigilant about the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [6]. 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.61% to 466.2 yuan per barrel, WTI fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, and Brent fell 3.63% to $62.73 per barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while some other spot prices had slight fluctuations. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all changed, with significant increases in SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads. - Inventory: US commercial crude, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased. US refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and crude processing volume increased slightly [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.82% to 2,693 yuan per ton, LU rose 1.50% to 3,311 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil fell 4.28% to 247.13 cents per gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased slightly, while others remained unchanged. - Spreads: Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, with an increase in the Chinese high - low sulfur spread [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were 7.804 million tons, similar to September. Chevron plans to increase oil and gas production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030. Indonesia expects an oil production of about 607,000 barrels per day in 2025. The Trump administration may open the California coast for oil drilling leases [10][11]. b. Demand - Indian state - owned refiner Indian Oil Corporation plans to purchase Russian ESPO and Sokol crude for early next year [12]. c. Inventory - US API inventories showed changes in various products, with a decrease in some and an increase in others. The US Energy Department purchased about 1 million barrels of crude for the strategic petroleum reserve. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased [13][14]. d. Market Information - Lukoil applied to the US Treasury for an extension of the trading deadline. UK's BP is in talks to sell Castrol. UK plans to ban services for Russian LNG exports from 2026. Crude - related futures prices fell significantly [15].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Copper supply tightening and macro differences lead to a continued strong - running pattern. The market will likely stay within the current range and remain generally strong in the short term. Supply - side factors and overseas demand weakness put pressure on prices, while China's electromechanical industry provides support [1][3] Group 2: Day - to - Day Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, LME copper price dropped slightly to $10,840/ton. SHFE's main contract closed at 86,490 yuan/ton on November 11 with intensified intraday fluctuations. Spot premium and discount diverged, with the premium of premium copper expanding to 120 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper shrinking to 5 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper widening to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to - 21.28 dollars/ton. LME copper open interest increased to 324,358 lots on November 11, COMEX inventory rose significantly to 376,631 short tons, and SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 136,250 tons, with overall inventory pressure remaining [1] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Global copper supply is expanding. US industrial metal inventory soared from 83,900 tons in February to over 335,000 tons, driven by the price difference between the US and Europe. Southeast Asian countries' stricter origin rules may increase China's re - export trade costs in the short term but may accelerate local industrial chain layout in the long run [2] - **Demand**: China's electromechanical product exports and motor industry upgrading support copper consumption, but high US inventory and the expanding LME discount imply weak overseas demand. Domestic procurement and sales sentiment has slightly improved, but the Contango structure of inter - month spreads and import losses suppress import demand [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory dropped to 42,964 tons on November 12, but COMEX inventory reached a new high for the year. With the inflow pressure on US delivery warehouses, global visible inventory remains at a high level [2] Market Summary - Supply - side factors such as the sharp increase in US inventory and Southeast Asian trade policy disturbances suppress prices. Demand - side, the resilience of China's electromechanical industry provides support, but weak overseas demand and the inflow of macro - arbitrage funds into the delivery system intensify selling pressure. The market will likely run within the current range and remain generally strong in the short term [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Indicator | November 12, 2025 | November 11, 2025 | November 6, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 copper (spot) | 87,010 | 86,950 | 86,610 | 60 | 0.07% | yuan/ton | | Premium copper | 115 | 120 | 115 | - 5 | - 4.17% | yuan/ton | | Flat - water copper | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - process copper | - 55 | - 55 | - 50 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 14 | - 21 | - 15 | 7 | 33.74% | dollars/ton | | SHFE |86,680 | 86,750 | 86,490 | - 70 | - 0.08% | yuan/ton | | LME | 10,897 | 10,840 | 10,875 | 57 | 0.53% | dollars/ton | | LME inventory | 44,088 | 42,964 | 43,789 | 1,124 | 2.62% | tons | | SHFE inventory | 136,250 | 136,250 | 136,275 | 0 | 0.00% | tons | | COMEX inventory | 378,303 | 376,631 | 372,304 | 1,672 | 0.44% | short tons | [5] Group 4: Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disruptions, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, there is a long - short game between the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.26% to 461.8 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 59.84 dollars/barrel and 63.7 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI strengthened by 0.21 dollars/barrel to 1.18 dollars/barrel and 5.04 dollars/barrel respectively, indicating an expansion of SC's premium relative to the outer market. The discount of the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread deepened to - 3.4 yuan/barrel, reflecting pressure on near - month contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq was suspended due to force majeure, and 3 batches of crude oil shipments of Lukoil were cancelled, increasing the short - term risk of supply tightening in Iraq. The cooperation between Zhonggang Petroleum and Kazakh oil fields may provide potential support for long - term production capacity in Central Asia, but the short - term impact is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The slight increase in refined oil prices in China shows a marginal improvement in refinery profits, which may support crude oil procurement demand. However, Singapore's plan to levy a green tax on aviation fuel may suppress the consumption expectation of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region, forming a partial suppression on the demand side [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The expansion of the SC near - far month spread discount may imply an accumulation of domestic delivery inventories under supply pressure. The inventory data of the US and OECD have not been updated, and subsequent EIA reports need to be followed [5]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disturbances, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption form a long - short game. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SC was at 461.80 yuan/barrel, up 0.26% from November 7; WTI was at 60.05 dollars/barrel, up 0.35%; Brent was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, up 0.38%; OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at 64.83 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, such as Oman up 0.41%, Dubai up 0.95%, etc. [8]. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 3.09% to 0.94 dollars/barrel; SC - WTI spread remained unchanged; Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.78% to 3.89 dollars/barrel; SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased by 41.67% to - 3.40 yuan/barrel [8]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose by 0.08% to 99.62; the S&P 500 rose by 1.54% to 6,832.43 points; the DAX index rose by 1.65% to 23,959.99 points; the RMB exchange rate remained stable [8]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.25% to 42,116,800 barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 1.33% to 2,286,500 barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.12% to 40,959,500 barrels; API inventory increased by 1.47% to 45,043,900 barrels [8]. - **开工**: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased by 0.69% to 86.00%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.24% to 1,525,600 barrels/day [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU was at 2,693.00 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from November 7; LU was at 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 249.51 cents/gallon, up 0.52% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, such as IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MDO in Singapore and Rotterdam, etc. [9]. - **Paper Prices**: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.46% to 376.78 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.17% to 371.43 dollars/ton [9]. - **Spreads**: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.38% to 587.00 yuan/ton; LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased by 0.32% to - 1,887.00 yuan/ton; FU - Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.11% to - 1,780.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's inventory decreased by 1.21% to 2,448,200 barrels [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On November 10, Zhonggang Petroleum (International) Group Co., Ltd. and AralPetroleum Capital LLP entered into a memorandum of understanding to explore potential cooperation in oil well exploration and production in Kazakh oil fields. - On November 10, Iraq's SOMO cancelled 3 batches of crude oil cargoes of Lukoil scheduled for November shipment. - On November 10, Lukoil announced force majeure for the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation continued [10][11]. 3.3.2 Demand - On November 10, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased slightly due to international oil price fluctuations [12]. 3.3.3 Market Information - Starting from next year, air passengers departing from Singapore will pay a green fuel tax of up to S$41.60 (US$31.95), which may suppress the consumption of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region [14].