Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The mismatch between supply and demand of pure benzene continues. Without obvious macro - positive support, the price will mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand contradiction of styrene may intensify in October, and the high inventory and the drag of upstream pure benzene limit its upward space. Its short - term trend still fluctuates more with oil [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - **Price**: On September 26, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.13% at 6,949 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 34 (- 17 tons); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.32% at 5,903 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On September 26, Brent crude oil closed at $65.0/barrel (+$0/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $68.6/barrel (+$0.1/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,870 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 18.7 tons (+2.8 tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.3%, turning to inventory accumulation. The port inventory of pure benzene was 10.7 tons (- 2.7 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% [2] - **Supply**: Some styrene plants have started maintenance, and the production and supply have decreased as expected. Currently, the weekly output of styrene is 34.6 tons (- 0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 73.2% (- 0.2%) [2] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 55.2% (- 6.49%), ABS is 70% (+0.2%), and PS is 59.1% (- 2.1%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the fourth quarter. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved, the terminal peak season has not arrived, and it is difficult to digest the high supply. The long - term inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, and the price will mainly fluctuate weakly [2] - **Styrene**: Supply will tighten in September and increase significantly in October. There will be a short - term decrease in demand during the National Day, and the mismatch between upstream and downstream production will intensify the supply - demand contradiction in October. The inventory pressure is high, and the cost support is limited. The short - term trend fluctuates with oil [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Price Data - Styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.13% to 6,949 yuan/ton; pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.32% to 5,903 yuan/ton. There are also changes in other prices such as spot prices and international prices [5] (2) Output and Inventory Data - The output of styrene in China decreased by 0.27% to 34.6 tons, and the output of pure benzene increased by 1.18% to 45.5 tons. Styrene port inventory increased by 17.3% to 18.7 tons, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 20.15% to 10.7 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization Data - The capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene downstream products such as styrene decreased by 0.2%, while those of others such as caprolactam increased. The capacity utilization rates of some styrene downstream products such as EPS decreased, while that of ABS increased slightly [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposes high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. The overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry in the first half of 2025 has intensified. China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, inventory, and capacity utilization rate, etc. [9][14][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate futures have not obtained marginal drivers to break through the 74,000 - point resistance. Supply - side new capacity release and overseas lithium mine cost optimization are potential negatives, while demand - side new energy vehicle sales growth and stronger cathode material prices provide support. The strengthening basis shows the need for futures - spot structure repair, and pre - holiday downstream point - price procurement may limit the downside space, but the shrinking position indicates that funds lack confidence in breaking through the previous high. There is a risk of a slight downward shift in the price center if demand growth is lower than supply release [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 26, the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The basis strengthened significantly to 620 yuan/ton, reversing 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The main contract position decreased by 4.79% to 248,600 lots, a new low in the past five days, while the trading volume increased by 40.35% to 481,000 lots, indicating active short - term trading due to price fluctuations [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the price of spodumene concentrate remained at 6,390 yuan/ton. Australia's Core Lithium completed the restart study of the Finniss project, with mining costs reduced by 40%, which may enhance the supply elasticity of spodumene in the future. Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project was officially put into production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed, gradually releasing domestic lithium salt production capacity. The proportion of spodumene process exceeded 60%, and the supply structure tended to be stable. On the demand side, according to the Passenger Car Association, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 10% year - on - year on September 21, and the demand for power batteries remained resilient. The price of ternary materials continued to rise, with the power - type ternary material exceeding 121,300 yuan/ton, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased by 40 yuan to 33,600 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for five consecutive weeks to 136,800 tons, a decrease of 706 tons compared with September 19 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On September 26, the lithium carbonate main contract price decreased by 1.57% to 72,880 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 214.81% to 620 yuan/ton; the main contract position decreased by 4.79% to 248,640 lots; the main contract trading volume increased by 40.35% to 481,020 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton, and the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate also remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.43% to 58,250 yuan/ton, the power - type ternary material increased by 0.50% to 121,350 yuan/ton, and the power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.12% to 33,650 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 71.31%, and the inventory decreased by 0.51% to 136,825 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On September 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,491 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,800 - 74,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 - 71,950 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,100 - 74,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material factories made point - price actions at low points and returned to a cautious waiting - and - seeing attitude after the price rebounded. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite decreased to 15%. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate was faster, and it was expected that there would be a stage of tight supply in that month [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 724,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 19%. The wholesale penetration rate was 55.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.668 million, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen factory. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed and put into production. On September 20 - 24, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake completed a 120 - hour functional assessment, marking its official operation, which is expected to significantly improve the domestic lithium resource self - sufficiency rate [9][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows significant short - term de - stocking, but there is still a high pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile. The styrene market has short - term supply tightening, but inventory accumulation restricts its upward momentum, and the short - term trend mainly follows the movement of crude oil [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply**: This week, the overall supply remained relatively stable. Although some devices had planned and unplanned shutdowns, some hydro - benzene devices restarted. Looking ahead, two factories in East China postponed their device maintenance, two small long - shut - down devices in Shandong are planned to resume operation in mid - October, and there will be European shipments arriving from November to December, so the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [2][7] - **Demand**: The downstream start - up situation was mixed. The start - up rates of styrene and adipic acid declined, while some devices such as caprolactam, aniline, and phenol restarted and increased their loads, causing the overall converted demand to rebound slightly compared to the previous period. However, the terminal consumption has not shown signs of a traditional peak - season recovery, and the weak industrial chain profit has limited the boost [2] - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased to 10.7 tons, a de - stocking of 2.7 tons compared to the previous week, with a decline rate of 20.1%. In the short term, the de - stocking provides certain support to the market, but in the context of supply accumulation and insufficient demand improvement in the fourth quarter, the pattern of inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [2] - **Price**: The price generally fluctuated with crude oil. Due to the short - term de - stocking support and the low valuation, the downward space is limited, but the supply increase and weak demand in the fourth quarter will keep the price weakly volatile [2] - **Profit**: The profit of downstream industries weakened. The overall demand of downstream industries was weak, and although there was some improvement during the traditional peak season, the boost was limited. At the same time, the upstream pure benzene price remained firm, increasing the cost pressure on downstream enterprises and further compressing the overall gross profit margin [15] Styrene - **Supply**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's two 600,000 - ton devices stopped due to malfunctions and are expected to resume operation by early October, causing the overall supply in September to continue to tighten. However, with the gradual commissioning of new devices of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical and the return of maintenance devices, the supply will increase month - by - month in the fourth quarter [3] - **Demand**: The performance of the demand side was differentiated. Among the 3S sectors, the start - up rate of EPS decreased to 55.2%, a decline of 6.5 percentage points compared to the previous week; ABS remained at 70%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points; PS dropped to 59.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points. The overall downstream demand is at a high level within the year but lacks the power for further expansion [3] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased to 18.7 tons, an increase of 2.8 tons compared to the previous week, with an increase rate of 17.3%. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in October [3][46] - **Production**: This week, the weekly production of styrene was 34.6 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [3] - **Price**: Both pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The valuation advantage limits the downward space to a certain extent, but the high inventory and the expectation of supply increase suppress the upward momentum, and the short - term trend mainly follows the movement of crude oil [3] - **Profit**: The styrene - pure benzene price difference continued to weaken, and the processing profit was continuously compressed [33] International Arbitrage - The arbitrage window is closed [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of styrene are weak and it fluctuates following the cost of crude oil. Although the prices of styrene and pure benzene are at historical lows with low valuations, the contradiction between high inventory pressure and general terminal提货 persists, and the fundamentals remain weak considering the future supply increase expectation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On September 25, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.43% at 6,958 yuan/ton with a basis of -18 (-15 tons); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.25% at 5,922 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On September 25, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at $65.0 per barrel (+$1.6 per barrel), the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at $68.5 per barrel (+$1.5 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,885 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 18.7 tons (+2.8 tons), a 17.3% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, indicating a shift to inventory accumulation. The port inventory of pure benzene was 10.7 tons (-2.7 tons), a 20.1% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period [2]. - **Supply**: Some styrene plants have started maintenance, and the production rate and supply have decreased as expected. Currently, the weekly output of styrene is 34.6 tons (-0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 73.2% (-0.2%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 55.2% (-6.49%), ABS is 70% (+0.2%), and PS is 59.1% (-2.1%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: On the supply side, the overall fluctuation of petroleum benzene this week was not significant. One reform disproportionation unit of Fujia Dahua was shut down as planned, and one cracking unit of CNOOC Shell was shut down due to unplanned factors. For hydrobenzene, some previously shut - down units restarted, and the overall supply level was basically the same as last week. Market news shows that the maintenance plans of two factories in East China have been postponed, two small - scale pure benzene units in Shandong that have been shut down for a long time are expected to restart in mid - October, and there are also reports of European cargo transactions from November to December. The supply is expected to increase both at home and abroad in the fourth quarter. On the demand side, the loads of styrene and adipic acid decreased, while the loads of some units of caprolactam, aniline, and phenol increased after restarting. Overall, the actual demand for pure benzene has recovered compared to the previous period. Although the demand side has slightly improved, the terminal consumption has not shown peak - season characteristics, the downstream profits are under pressure, and the overall recovery is limited. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased to 10.7 tons this week, a decrease of 2.7 tons compared to the previous period, with a de - stocking rate of 20.1%. However, considering the increased domestic supply in the fourth quarter and weak terminal demand, the pattern of inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Styrene**: On the supply side, recently, two 600,000 - ton units of Zhejiang Petrochemical were shut down due to malfunctions and are expected to resume operation by early October, which has tightened the styrene supply in September. However, after September, new units of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will be gradually put into production, and some maintenance units will also return, so the overall supply is expected to increase month by month. Recently, the external sales of styrene by Jingbo still put pressure on the market. After a phased de - stocking, the port inventory has quickly rebounded. This week, the styrene port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 18.7 tons, a 17.3% increase in inventory compared to the previous period. On the demand side, the start - up of the 3S sector is differentiated. The start - up rate of EPS dropped to 55.2%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points compared to the previous period; ABS remained at around 70%, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points; PS dropped to 59.1%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous period, and the overall demand has shrunk [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - The main contract of styrene futures increased by 0.43% from 6,928 yuan/ton on September 24 to 6,958 yuan/ton on September 25. The spot price of styrene decreased by 0.14% from 7,130 yuan/ton to 7,120 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene decreased by 500% from - 3 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton [4]. - The main contract of pure benzene futures increased by 0.25% from 5,907 yuan/ton on September 24 to 5,922 yuan/ton on September 25. The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5,885 yuan/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea increased by 0.14% from $708.5 per ton to $709.5 per ton, the FOB price in the US increased by 0.41% from $739.5 per ton to $742.5 per ton, and the CFR price in China remained unchanged at $725.5 per ton [4]. - The difference between the domestic pure benzene price and the CFR price decreased by 1.05% from - 338.9 yuan/ton to - 342.5 yuan/ton. The difference between the pure benzene price in East China and Shandong increased by 30.30% from - 165 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.49% from $63.4 per barrel to $65.0 per barrel, the price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.22% from $67.0 per barrel to $68.5 per barrel, and the price of naphtha increased by 0.07% from 7,594 yuan/ton to 7,599 yuan/ton [4]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - The production of styrene in China decreased by 0.27% from 34.7 tons on September 19 to 34.6 tons on September 26, while the production of pure benzene increased by 1.18% from 45.0 tons to 45.5 tons [5]. - The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 17.30% from 15.9 tons on September 19 to 18.7 tons on September 26, and the domestic factory inventory of styrene decreased by 6.01% from 21.6 tons to 20.3 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 20.15% from 13.4 tons to 10.7 tons [5]. (3) Capacity Utilization - Among the downstream of pure benzene, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased by 0.20% from 73.4% on September 19 to 73.2% on September 26, caprolactam increased by 4.97% from 88.7% to 93.7%, phenol increased by 7.30% from 70.7% to 78.0%, and aniline increased by 2.97% from 72.0% to 74.9% [6]. - Among the downstream of styrene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 6.49% from 61.7% on September 19 to 55.2% on September 26, ABS increased by 0.20% from 69.8% to 70.0%, and PS decreased by 2.10% from 61.2% to 59.1% [6]. 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, triggering a global adjustment of the petrochemical industry structure. South Korea was forced to cut its ethylene cracking capacity, and some factories in parts of Europe were shut down due to high energy costs [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year. The losses in the refining and chemical sector alone exceeded 9 billion yuan, highlighting the fierce competition within the industry and the severe situation of profit contraction [7]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [7]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, EPS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, phenol weekly capacity utilization, and aniline weekly capacity utilization, with data sources including iFinD and Steel Union Data [8][13][18][21][22][24][25][26][29][30][31].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with strong price resilience in the context of increasing supply and demand, but lacking a breakthrough driver [3] - The lithium carbonate market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected to experience a period of tight supply [6] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day's 72,880 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened significantly from 620 yuan/ton on September 24 to - 540 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 25, the position of the main contract slightly expanded to 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume slightly shrank to 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [1] Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: On September 19, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose to 71.31%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from 66.41% on September 12. The price of spodumene concentrate was stable at 6,390 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate remained at 3,400 yuan/ton. However, lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month in August, and future supply increments may be restricted by tight raw materials [2] - **Demand Side**: From September 1 to 21, new - energy vehicle retail sales reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 58,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials increased to 120,750 yuan/ton. But pre - holiday stockpiling is nearing the end, and demand may decline after October [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On September 19, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,531 physical tons, a reduction of 981 tons from 138,512 physical tons on September 12, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the basis was - 540 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the main contract position was 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [5] - From September 19 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, and the inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotes - On September 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in the peak demand season, pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream material factories is nearing the end, and market sentiment is turning cautious. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a period of tight supply [6] Downstream Consumption - From September 1 to 21, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 58.5%. The wholesale volume was 724,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 55.4% [7] Industry News - On September 11, a "Lithium Belt in Asia" was discovered in China, spanning four provinces and regions [9] - On September 10, news of the potential restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine spread, and the company planned to restart production in November, but the outcome is uncertain [9]

Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 25, the SHFE main contract price soared to 82,540 yuan/ton, a 3.19% increase from September 24, breaking through the 83,000 yuan/ton mark. The basis weakened overall, with the premium copper discount dropping from 95 yuan/ton on September 24 to 80 yuan/ton, the flat copper discount widening from 15 yuan/ton to -10 yuan/ton, and the wet copper discount deepening to -60 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount was -31.37 US dollars/ton on September 24 [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: During the sharp rise in copper prices, the position volume significantly expanded, but the trading volume clearly contracted. Affected by the high copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened, and the daily trading volume of refined copper rods declined, with the spot market trading light [1]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Supply disturbances intensified. On September 25, Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine declared force majeure, with an expected 35% production decline in 2026. Coupled with the closure of the Constancia concentrator in Peru by Canada's Hudbay Minerals on September 24, it triggered global supply concerns. The trading activity in the upstream copper concentrate market was low, and the SMM import index reported -40.8 US dollars/dry ton on September 19, showing a slight recovery. Maintenance of northern refineries led to limited supply, and overall supply was tight [1]. - **Demand Side**: Demand was significantly suppressed by high copper prices. On September 25, downstream enterprises in the northern market had almost no inventory - building demand. Poor consumption prompted processing enterprises to consider extending the National Day holiday. New orders in the power, construction, and other sectors were scarce, and pre - holiday inventory building was weak. Although energy storage projects and the copper high - speed connector concept were active, the short - term boost was limited [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Inventory decreased slightly. As of September 25, the SHFE inventory was 144,425 tons, a decrease of 350 tons from September 24; the LME inventory increased to 27,662 tons, an increase of 243 tons from the 24th; the SMM national inventory as of September 22 was 144,500 tons, a decrease of 4,400 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices may remain at a high level in the short term. The current mine accidents in the copper market resonate with the macro - level. The direct stimulation of demand by macro - level positives and the supply gap caused by the cancellation of contracts due to mine accidents have shifted the future balance sheet towards a supply - demand imbalance, and this upward movement has also opened up an upward operating space on the market [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, domestic supply - side disturbances have increased. With the maintenance of some refining and chemical plants in East and South China, production has decreased, and the import of Asian sources is restricted. Demand remains weak, and inventory in some areas has decreased. The cost has increased. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate strongly under the support of plant maintenance, but in the long - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression caused by OPEC+ production increase and less - than - expected demand recovery [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply has been continuously shrinking due to maintenance. Although production may increase this week, downstream device operation is differentiated, and inventory performance is also different. The cost of non - integrated enterprises has increased, and profit margins have been compressed. In September, the supply pressure is relatively alleviated. In the short - term, inventory is being reduced, but if demand does not improve significantly, the price increase space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On September 22, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.92% at 6,928 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42 (+4 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.75% at 5,921 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On September 22, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,875 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization have decreased. The weekly output was 34.7 tons (-0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 73.4% (-1.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS was 61.7% (+0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (-0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (-0.7%) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. South Korea has cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories have closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared with the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South and Northeast China developing in coordination [8]. 3.3 Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.92%, and the spot price decreased by 1.78%. The basis increased by 10.53% [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.75%, and prices in different regions had different degrees of decline [5]. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.32%, and naphtha decreased by 1.14% [5]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From September 5 to 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97%, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: From September 5 to 12, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, and pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% [6]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changed to different degrees from September 5 to 12 [7]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also had different changes during the same period [7].

李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 需求下滑，聚酯原料价格或继续承压下行 通惠期货研发部 1. PTA&PX 09月22日，PX 主力合约收6592.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.03%，基差 为-17.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4586.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.39%， 基差为-26.0元/吨。 成本端，09月22日，布油主力合约收盘66.05美元/桶。WTI收62.36美元/ 桶。需求端，09月22日，轻纺城成交总量为727.0万米，15 日平均成交为 760.53万米。 供给端：素材未提及PX和PTA装置开工率及装置变动相关信息，难以从供给 端判断未来PX和PTA价格走势。 需求端：轻纺城成交总量低于15日平均成交，反映出纺织品市场需求有所 下滑，聚酯产品需求可能随之减少，进而降低对PTA的需求，这可能使PTA 价格面临下行压力，而PTA需求减少也会间接影响PX需求，对PX价格产生一 定负面影响。 库存端：素材未给出PTA工厂库存相关内容，无法 ...

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate within the current range in the next one to two weeks. The supply - demand situation shows no significant changes, so the price is likely to remain volatile. Although the capacity utilization rate has increased, there is uncertainty in lithium mine复产, and the cost side remains stable. The demand side is supported by the positive data of the new - energy vehicle market, and the inventory is decreasing, but the decline is not large [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 22, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 540 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The basis was reported at - 120 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton stronger than on September 19. The main contract's open interest was 271,624 lots, a decrease of 9,640 lots compared to September 19, and the trading volume was 396,645 lots, an increase of 26,286 lots or 7.1% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September 12 to 19, the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 6,390 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, a rise of 4.9 percentage points. From September 1 - 14, the retail and wholesale data of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The prices of power ternary materials and power lithium iron phosphate increased slightly. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons, a decrease of 0.71% [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From September 19 to 22, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 540 yuan/ton or 0.73%, the basis increased by 540 yuan/ton or 81.82%, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,640 lots or 3.43%, and the trading volume increased by 26,286 lots or 7.1%. The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The prices of power ternary materials and power lithium iron phosphate increased by 200 yuan/ton and 80 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On September 22, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,842 yuan/ton, up 308 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in a volatile manner. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, and the main contract oscillated between 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The market in September showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 14, the national new - energy passenger vehicle market retail was 43.8 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 59.8%. The national new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale was 44.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 21%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 57.7% [7]. - **Industry News**: Multiple factors such as the tight supply of nickel sulfate, the expected change in the cobalt export policy in the DRC, and the unclear follow - up adjustment of domestic lithium mining policies have increased the uncertainty of the ternary material price trend. There were rumors of the restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine, but whether it can restart as scheduled is uncertain [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side factors such as EU sanctions on Russia and a decline in Saudi crude oil inventory may limit supply and support oil prices. However, futures prices have declined slightly, and there is bearish sentiment in the market. If demand does not improve significantly, it will also restrict the upside potential of oil prices [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 22, SC futures price dropped to 483.0 yuan/barrel, a 0.82% decline from September 19; WTI futures price decreased to 62.34 dollars/barrel, a 0.03% decline; Brent futures price fell to 66.01 dollars/barrel, a 0.06% decline. Most spreads weakened, with SC - Brent spread down 22.31%, SC - WTI spread down 9.17%, Brent - WTI spread down 0.54%, and SC continuous - 3 spread down 42.22% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On September 19, the EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, which may affect Russian crude oil supply and trade. Saudi's crude oil inventory in July decreased by 7.062 million barrels to 145.352 million barrels, indicating a possible supply tightening [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand during the autumn - winter distillate oil stocking season was poor, leading to a counter - seasonal increase in inventory. The US refinery operating rate dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 93.3%, suggesting the start of traditional autumn inspections and the approaching end of seasonal peak demand, which may cause an imbalance in the crude oil supply - demand pattern [3]. - **Inventory Side**: On September 22, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels; fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were 127,140 tons, unchanged; low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts were 10,020 tons, unchanged [4]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all declined slightly. Most spot prices also decreased, with Dubai's price down 1.04%. Among spreads, SC - Brent spread decreased by 22.31%. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.19%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate dropped by 1.69% [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel all declined. Most spot and paper - cargo prices showed changes, with Singapore's inventory decreasing by 4.21% [8]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On September 19, the EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [9][11][13]. - **Inventory**: Saudi's crude oil inventory in July decreased by 7.062 million barrels to 145.352 million barrels. Some futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while some decreased, like the petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts [12]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and PAJ [14][16][18]