1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. Geopolitical disturbances on the supply side provide pulse support for oil prices, but the recovery of Russian maritime exports and concerns about the release of OPEC+ idle capacity limit the upside. On the demand side, the seasonal destocking in the US is nearing an end, and weak refined oil cracking spreads suggest that compressed refinery margins may force a slowdown in crude oil procurement. Attention should be paid to the implementation of EU sanctions against Russia and the October production policy of OPEC+ [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 18, the SC crude oil main contract fell 1.51% to 489 yuan/barrel. WTI (63.31 US dollars/barrel) and Brent (67.52 US dollars/barrel) fell 0.52% and 0.57% respectively. The SC - Brent spread dropped from 2.36 US dollars/barrel to 1.67 US dollars/barrel (a 29.24% decline), and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from 6.63 US dollars/barrel to 5.88 US dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed by 0.06 US dollars/barrel to 4.21 US dollars/barrel [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The energy and chemical warehouse receipts remained stable overall. Only the asphalt warehouse receipts decreased by 350 tons. The decline in the SC crude oil main contract and the cautious market sentiment indicated a decrease in the willingness of long - position holders [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: Geopolitical disturbances increase short - term supply risks. The attack on a Russian refinery by Ukraine and the US court's ruling on Venezuelan bonds may affect supply, but Russia's maritime oil product exports increased by 8.9% in August, and Qatar's price increase shows OPEC+ producers' willingness to support prices [3]. - **Demand Side**: The unexpected decline in US EIA commercial crude oil inventories supports demand, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on real - economy demand needs further observation. Uncertainty about EU sanctions against Russia may suppress European refineries' procurement. In the refined oil market, asphalt warehouse receipt destocking shows infrastructure demand resilience, while high - level fuel oil warehouse receipts indicate limited recovery in shipping fuel demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The decline in US inventories eases the oversupply pressure, but the recovery of Russian oil exports and the potential for OPEC+ to increase production may weaken the sustainability of destocking. Global inventories are structurally differentiated, with OECD commercial crude oil inventories at a neutral level and Asian floating storage potentially increasing [3]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, there is still downward pressure. Geopolitical disturbances on the supply side provide short - term support, but the recovery of Russian exports and concerns about OPEC+ idle capacity limit the upside. The end of seasonal destocking in the US and weak refined oil cracking spreads may lead to a slowdown in crude oil procurement [4]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On September 18, most crude oil futures and spot prices declined. The spreads between different crude oil types also changed, with the SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads narrowing significantly. The US dollar index rose 0.35%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48%, and the DAX index rose 1.35%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.19%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 1.69% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Most fuel oil futures and spot prices declined on September 18. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.18%, while some US fuel oil inventories increased [7]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: On September 18, a US judge made an unfavorable ruling on Venezuela's state - owned oil company, Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, and Russia's maritime oil product exports increased by 8.9% in August [8]. - **Demand**: US House Democrats urged the Trump administration to re - implement a plan to compensate airline passengers for flight delays [10]. - **Inventory**: On September 18, most energy and chemical warehouse receipts remained stable, except for a 350 - ton decrease in asphalt warehouse receipts [11]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on September 19, the SC crude oil main contract fell 1.51%. Market sentiment was affected by EU sanctions against Russia, US inventory changes, and Fed policies. Qatar raised the price of Al - Shaheen crude oil for November [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory levels [13][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market has a slight edge for bearish factors. Concerns about oversupply and weak signs on the demand side are the main pressures suppressing oil prices. Although oil prices once broke through the previous low - level oscillation range supported by geopolitical factors and the volatility increased, there was a lack of follow - up momentum after the positive factors were realized. The development of geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East needs to be monitored. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil supply tightened due to reduced shipments from major exporters, and its demand and inventory showed mixed trends; low - sulfur fuel oil supply tended to be loose due to increased exports from Nigeria [3][4][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - OPEC + continues the production increase plan. In October, OPEC + will increase production by 13.7 million barrels per day. Since the first quarter of 2025, the actual crude oil production increase of OPEC + has been about 1.5 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the announced target of 2.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price to Asian customers and asked buyers to increase提货量, and its production in August increased by 258,000 barrels per day to 9.71 million barrels per day. The attack on Russian energy facilities and new sanctions may bring short - term supply risk premiums [3][11]. - U.S. crude oil production remains at a high level [22]. Demand Side - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but this has been fully anticipated by the market. It is more of a preventive measure against potential economic risks, and it is difficult to quickly boost demand. After the interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index rose instead of falling, weakening the attractiveness of dollar - denominated crude oil. The performance during the distillate oil stocking peak season was poor, leading to an inverse - seasonal increase in inventory. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 93.3% from the annual high, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn inspections [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the power generation demand from the Middle East will seasonally decline, Saudi Arabia's imports will decrease, but Egypt's procurement will increase. In the industrial field, fuel oil demand is challenged by the extension of natural gas pipeline networks and the acceleration of power substitution, and there are concerns about the long - term demand outlook [7]. Inventory - As of September 12, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, and Cushing inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 100,000 barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [4][44]. - In the week of September 15, the total inventory of Fujeirah petroleum products plummeted by 18%, decreasing by 2.935 million barrels to 13.089 million barrels, hitting a record low. In the week of September 17, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.118 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, reaching a three - week low. In the week of September 11, ARA region's fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.5% to 1.04 million tons [7]. Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil. From 2025 - 2026, non - OPEC production will increase from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production will only slightly increase by 0.7 million barrels per day. U.S. shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production. OECD demand has stagnated, and non - OECD demand has fluctuated sharply [59][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market continues to operate weakly, facing dual pressures of supply accumulation and weak demand, with short - term trends likely to remain oscillating weakly [3] - Styrene has shown a phased stabilization due to sudden supply disruptions. In the short - term, it gets some support, but the medium - term trend may still be oscillating if there are no subsequent favorable factors [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On September 18, the styrene main contract closed down 1.06% at 7062 yuan/ton, with a basis of 38 (- 4 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.96% at 5999 yuan/ton [2] - On September 18, Brent crude oil closed at 63.7 dollars/barrel (+ 0.4 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil main contract closed at 67.4 dollars/barrel (+ 0.0 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (- 1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking compared to the previous period; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (- 1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2] - Styrene plants have started maintenance, with production and capacity utilization decreasing. Weekly styrene output was 34.7 tons (- 0.7 tons), and plant capacity utilization was 73.4% (- 1.5%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization was 61.7% (+ 0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (- 0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (- 0.7%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply has increased as some units have resumed production after maintenance and new plants have released output. Demand is weak as downstream industries'开工 rates have declined and terminal enterprises have low stocking willingness. The cost support from international crude oil is limited. The short - term trend is likely to be oscillating weakly [3] - **Styrene**: Supply has tightened due to maintenance and production suspension of some plants, leading to a mild price rebound. Demand improvement is limited, and downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventories. Although port inventory has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level. The short - term is supported, but the medium - term may oscillate [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - From September 16 to 17, the styrene futures main contract decreased 0.28%, the spot price increased 0.14%, and the basis increased 13.51% [6] - The pure benzene futures main contract decreased 0.26%, and the prices in East China, South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [6] - The pure benzene domestic - CFR spread increased 0.33%, and the East China - Shandong spread decreased 500% [6] - Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha prices remained unchanged [6] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From September 5 to 12, Chinese styrene output decreased 5.97%, and pure benzene output increased 0.49% [7] - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 10.18%, the domestic factory inventory increased 2.52%, and the national pure benzene port inventory decreased 3.36% [7] (3) Capacity Utilization - From September 5 to 12, the capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased 4.76%, that of caprolactam decreased 4.21%, that of phenol decreased 6.20%, and that of aniline decreased 4.44% [8] - In styrene downstream, the capacity utilization of EPS increased 8.19%, ABS increased 1.00%, and PS increased 0.90% [8] 3. Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure [9] - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 8.3% [9] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South and Northeast China [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including those on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc., with data sources mainly from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][15][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View PX and PTA have cost support, but high inventory may limit the rebound momentum. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state, and the high - inventory pressure will restrict the upward space [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On September 17, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 116.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,712.0 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 92.0 yuan/ton. The cost support for PX has weakened due to the significant decline in the crude oil price center. The PX - PTA processing fee may face compression pressure. The downstream polyester operating rate is at a seasonal high, but the terminal marginal increment has slowed down. The PTA factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand structure remains loose [2][3]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,402.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state. The high - inventory pressure will limit the upward space, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm during the traditional peak season from September to October [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.15% to 6,772 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 9.27%. The PX spot price in South Korea increased by 0.12% to 811 dollars/ton, and the PX basis decreased by 9.43% to - 116 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.51% to 4,712 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 5.19%. The PTA basis decreased by 35.29% to - 92 yuan/ton [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.66% to 6,402 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 18.48%. The short - fiber basis decreased by 33.64% to 73 yuan/ton [5]. - **Other products**: The prices of most other products in the industry chain remained unchanged on September 17, except for the slight decline in the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On September 17, Milan was sworn in as a Federal Reserve governor before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Trump administration will appeal the court's ruling on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. On September 16, Michigan officials said there was no evidence that Cook violated the primary residence reporting regulations, and former Federal Reserve official Brad said he was "very interested" in becoming the Fed chair under certain conditions [7]. - **Supply - demand (demand)**: On September 17, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 751.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.28%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 604.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 148.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber; the spot prices of PX and PTA; PX capacity utilization; PTA and short - fiber futures spreads; PTA processing profit; industry chain load rate; polyester product sales and production; and inventory days [9][11][13][15][17][18][21][23][24][25][26][27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a weak balance, with insufficient momentum for price rebound. It may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and if port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, the price may decline to the previous low. If inventory destocking starts, it is expected to drive a periodic price rebound [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rebounded for two consecutive days, reaching 4,297 yuan/ton on September 17, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market rose to 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 25 yuan to 83 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 61 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread turned to a premium of 20 yuan [2] - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 107 lots to 310,700 lots, and trading volume decreased by 17% to 124,900 lots, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 70.8%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants stable. Coal - based production continued to incur a loss of 402 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester plants was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, remaining flat for many days. Terminal restocking demand was dull [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 485,700 tons (a weekly increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, reaching a recent high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the main ethylene glycol futures contract price was 4,297 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis was 83 yuan/ton [5] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 41 yuan [5] - **Profits**: Coal - based production profit was - 402 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.8%, and the operating rates of various production methods remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 486,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 180,000 tons. The arrival volume was 101,700 tons, down 67,000 tons from the previous period [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,980 yuan/ton ex - works. The mainstream market was weak, but coal prices were firm [6] - On September 17, the mainstream market price was weak, while the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable, with a dull trading atmosphere at around 4,480 yuan/ton delivered [6] - On September 17, the crude oil market declined during the day, with unstable cost support. The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol were expected to weaken, and the market negotiation price declined, with the current East China price at around 4,360 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total industry inventory [7][9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The current pure benzene market remains weak. Supply is increasing due to the restart of some petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene units, and new production from Shandong and Hebei. Demand is sluggish as the downstream industries'开工率 is weakening, and there are no signs of peak - season stocking. Crude oil has limited support for the cost of pure benzene. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile consolidation [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene has shown a temporary stabilization due to sudden production cuts. Supply has tightened in the short term because of planned and unplanned equipment issues. However, demand improvement is limited, and the overall inventory level is still high. If there is no continuous maintenance or significant policy support, the medium - term market will likely fluctuate with the trend of crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On September 17, the styrene main contract closed down 0.28% at 7,138 yuan/ton with a basis of 42 (+5 yuan/ton), and the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.26% at 6,057 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 63.3 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil was 67.4 dollars/barrel, both unchanged. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,970 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - **Cost**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil remained stable, and the spot price of pure benzene in East China did not change [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease, and pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production decreased to 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The 开工率 of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: The market is likely to stay weak in the short term due to supply - demand contradictions and insufficient market confidence [2]. - **Styrene**: Short - term price support comes from sudden supply disruptions, but the medium - term trend depends on maintenance and policy [3]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: The report provides price data for styrene and pure benzene (futures and spot), their basis, upstream prices (crude oil and naphtha), and price differences between different regions and types of products [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: Data on styrene and pure benzene production and inventory from September 5 to September 12 are presented, showing changes in production volume and inventory levels [6]. - **开工率**: The 开工率 data of pure benzene and styrene downstream industries from September 5 to September 12 are given, indicating the operating conditions of these industries [7]. 3.3. Industry News - The US imposing high tariffs on Asian chemical products has led to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry's losses continued to intensify, with the refining and chemical sector losing over 9 billion yuan more than the previous year. - China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [8]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes various charts showing the prices, production, inventory, and 开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products over different time periods, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][11][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with Brent and WTI hovering in the range of $68 - 69 per barrel, and SC being relatively stronger due to warehouse receipt support [5]. - Supply tightening supports oil prices as Russian exports are blocked, US production declines, and OPEC+ continues to cut production, offsetting some demand concerns [5]. - There are differences in demand resilience. Strong US gasoline consumption offsets the weakness of distillates, but the weakening of Asian import demand limits the upside space [5]. - Macro - level pressure has not been lifted. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the expectation of strategic petroleum reserve release and the risk of economic recession still put pressure on long - term prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On September 17, 2025, the domestic SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 1.07% to 499.3 yuan per barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened by $0.92 per barrel to $1.78 and $5.72 per barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at $3.94 per barrel [2]. - SC warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly by 320,000 barrels to 5.401 million barrels, and fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 25,600 tons [3]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Russian crude oil exports decreased due to drone attacks on Baltic ports by Ukraine. US shale oil production contracted marginally, and EIA data showed a week - on - week decline of 394,000 barrels per day in the week's put - into - production crude oil volume, along with a 3.111 million - barrel decrease in imports, leading to an unexpected drawdown of 9.285 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories. Personnel adjustments at Venezuela's state - owned oil company may bring uncertainty to its crude oil export stability [4]. - Demand side: The US refinery utilization rate dropped to 93.3% (expected 94.5%), but the derived data of crude oil demand significantly rebounded to 20.5 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, indicating strong terminal consumption, while distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, showing weak industrial demand. Japan's crude oil imports in August decreased by 2.5% year - on - year [4]. - Inventory side: US Cushing inventories continued to decline by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories slightly decreased by 10,000 barrels. Global crude oil visible inventories tightened overall, but the differentiation of refined oil inventories may limit refineries' restocking motivation [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 1.07% to 499.3 yuan per barrel, WTI decreased by 1.98% to $63.27 per barrel, and Brent decreased by 0.85% to $67.91 per barrel [7]. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while prices of other types of crude oil such as Oman, Victory, etc. had different changes [7]. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all increased, with increases of 153.76%, 43.74%, and 17.77% respectively [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index rose by 0.35%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10%, the DAX index rose by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.15% [7]. - Inventory,开工: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.19%, Cushing inventories decreased by 1.24%, and the US refinery weekly utilization rate decreased by 1.69% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 1.29% to 2,831 yuan per ton, LU rose by 1.89% to 3,459 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil decreased by 1.87% [8]. - Spot prices: Prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions had different changes [8]. - Spreads: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.67%, and other spreads also had corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased by 3.18%, and US distillate inventories had different degrees of increase or decrease [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - Venezuela appointed a new trade vice - president for its state - owned oil company on September 17, 2025, which may affect its crude oil export policy [9]. - US EIA data showed a decrease in put - into - production crude oil volume and imports in the week ending September 12, and Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased significantly due to drone attacks [10]. - Japan's crude oil and LNG imports in August decreased year - on - year [10]. 3.3.2 Demand - US EIA data showed a decrease in distillate fuel production - derived demand, refinery equipment utilization rate, and refined oil and gasoline production in the week ending September 12 [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - US EIA data showed a significant drawdown in crude oil inventories in the week ending September 12, along with changes in other types of inventories such as strategic reserves, Cushing inventories, and refined oil inventories [12]. - On September 17, 2025, the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange decreased by 320,000 barrels, and fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 25,640 tons [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information - The expected Fed interest - rate decision upper limit is 4.25% (previous value 4.50%), and the lower limit is 4.00% (previous value 4.25%) [14]. - US President Trump had a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Modi to ease tensions between the two economies [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides 21 data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [15][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game. In the next 1-2 weeks, if the downstream pre-holiday replenishment demand is accelerated, the price support at the current position is still obvious, but it is necessary to be vigilant that the high supply elasticity limits the rebound height [3]. - In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, but the demand growth is faster, and the inventory reduction supports the price. However, the uncertainty of the resumption of production makes the market sentiment cautious. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the next week, with a small upward space, but it may encounter resistance at high levels, so it will be volatile and strong, but the increase is limited [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous trading day; the basis narrowed to -540 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased to 294,624 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.26% to 343,863 lots [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The supply-side capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 66.41%, but the market focus shifted to the resumption expectation. If Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine resumes production as scheduled in November, it may increase the supply pressure. The demand side showed that the prices of downstream ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the cell prices also generally strengthened, but the short-term contradiction was the weak terminal demand. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased continuously, and the destocking in the spot market continued [2]. - **Market Summary**: The current lithium carbonate market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from 73,180 yuan/ton to 73,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.63% increase. The basis strengthened from -1,080 to -540. The battery-grade lithium carbonate market price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase [5]. - **Other Product Prices**: The prices of related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed slight increases, while the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.93%, and the trading volume decreased significantly by 31.26% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes**: On September 17, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to fluctuate upward, and the futures price continued to fluctuate. The downstream material enterprises still held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market trading activity was not high [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the wholesale increased by 5%. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year increased by 25% year-on-year [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 9, Ningde Times held a "Jianxiawo lithium mine resumption work meeting" to discuss the resumption work, aiming to complete the resumption in November, but the resumption is still uncertain [8]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those of lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources from SMM, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, iFinD, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the pattern of being volatile and slightly strong. In the absence of additional marginal factors, the main LC2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to remain in the current range in the next 1 - 2 weeks. If downstream purchases are weak, it may retest the previous low [3] - The recent rebound of futures prices may be affected by the weakening of the basis and the stabilization of spot prices, but the changes in trading volume and open interest show market divergence. The supply side may support prices, and the demand side may bring short - term support, but the cautious procurement and sufficient inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upside space. The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend [32][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose slightly to 73,180 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The basis widened to - 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price was stronger relative to the spot. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,009 lots to 300,437 lots, a decrease of 2.91%, while the trading volume expanded by 3.62% to 500,267 lots [1][5][30] - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: On the supply side, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, becoming the main support for supply, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%. The long - term supply increase expectation was enhanced, but short - term factors supported the spot. On the demand side, the demand for new energy vehicles was differentiated. The prices of cathode materials and most cell prices increased. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 138,512 tons, but the warehouse receipts remained high [2][31] - **Market Summary**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern. The supply side suppresses the upside space, while the demand side has a contradictory cost - pressure transmission, and market wait - and - see sentiment remains [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.69% to 73,180 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 86.21% to - 1,080 yuan/ton, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.91% to 300,437 lots, and the trading volume increased by 3.62% to 500,267 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose. The futures price fluctuated, and the downstream was cautious. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7] - **Industry News**: The lithium ore shutdown in Yichun, Jiangxi, may affect the supply, and the industry reshuffle from the supply side of lithium carbonate is coming [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are data charts on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., which visually show the data changes in the industrial chain [10][13][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors like smelting maintenance and recycled copper raw material interference provide support, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. With the Fed interest rate decision to be announced, the volatility is expected to increase on Thursday, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [1][3] - In the next one or two weeks, copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range is likely between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 16, the SHFE copper main contract price was 80,990 yuan/ton, a 0.2% rebound from the previous day, while the LME copper price dropped 0.71% to $10,117/ton. In terms of premium and discount, the domestic premium for premium copper widened to 125 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed to - $59.26/ton [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest continued to expand with a significant inventory build - up, increasing overseas short - selling pressure. The SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the warrants did not flow out in large quantities, so the domestic market support was relatively stronger than the overseas market [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: The tight supply of recycled copper has eased, but the delayed delivery of low - price raw materials has hindered the production of recycled copper rod enterprises. Planned maintenance at North China smelters may exacerbate short - term regional supply tightness. Indonesia's plan to increase Freeport's state - owned equity may disrupt long - term copper mine supply expectations, but the short - term impact is limited [2] - **需求端**: High copper prices have continuously suppressed downstream procurement. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory decreased by 3.63%. The discount of recycled copper rods to the futures price widened to 640 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of high - price goods was low, with orders remaining at the minimum requirement [2] - **库存端**: The LME inventory increased continuously, making overseas hidden inventories visible, while the SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the structural contradiction still existed [2] 1.3 Market Summary - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors support the market, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. After the Fed interest rate decision is announced at the night - session close, the volatility on Thursday is expected to increase, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From September 10 to September 16, the prices of SHFE copper, spot premium copper, and wet - process copper increased, while the LME copper price decreased. The LME and COMEX inventories increased, and the SHFE inventory decreased [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rates and LME copper price correlation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrants, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][8][11] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - After comprehensively analyzing the copper futures market data and information, it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range may be between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [30][32]