Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply increases slightly due to new oil - benzene device production, while hydro - benzene开工率 drops. Demand from phenol rises but is partly offset by the decline in adipic acid. Overall demand is flat. Inventory decreases at East China ports due to typhoon - affected arrivals. 8 - 9月 may see slight inventory reduction, but improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak consumption [5]. - **Styrene**: Supply is sufficient with new device production and resumed operations. Demand is weak, with EPS开工率 dropping significantly and PS/ABS rising slightly. Port inventory doesn't increase but remains high. Mid - term supply pressure persists with new capacity planned. The strong pure benzene price provides some support, and the macro - environment helps sentiment, but fundamental positives are limited [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 12, styrene futures rose 0.99% to 7322 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (- 27 yuan/ton), and pure benzene futures rose 0.32% to 6250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On August 12, Brent crude closed at 64.0 (+0.1 dollar/barrel), WTI at 66.6 (+0.0 dollar/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was 6180 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 21.1 (-0.6) million tons, a 2.71% decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 (-1.0) million tons, a 6.42% decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 (-1.7) million tons, a 10.43% decrease [4]. - **Supply**: A new styrene device in Shandong was put into operation. Weekly styrene output was 35.9 (-0.2) million tons, and capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [4]. - **Demand**: Among styrene's downstream 3S, EPS capacity utilization dropped 10.6% to 43.7%, ABS rose 5.2% to 71.1%, and PS rose 1.7% to 55.0% [4]. 3.2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and spot prices rose slightly on August 12 compared to August 11, while the basis decreased. Pure benzene futures, East China spot, and some international prices also changed, with different price differences showing various trends [8]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 1 to August 8, styrene output decreased by 0.63% to 35.9 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 2.36% to 44.6 million tons. Styrene and pure benzene inventories at ports and factories all decreased [9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 1 to August 8, the capacity utilization of styrene and some pure - benzene downstream products changed. EPS capacity utilization dropped significantly, while ABS and PS increased [10]. 3.3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply issues may push up naphtha costs, with an expected record - high naphtha import of 16 - 17 million tons in 2025 [11]. - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India plans to accelerate petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [11]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of pure benzene and styrene prices, price differences, inventory, and capacity utilization [16][19][21]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term, constrained by high inventory and coal chemical restarts above, and supported by cost margins below. The market expects the mid - term supply - demand contradiction to ease, but the rebound of near - term contracts is limited. It is recommended to focus on the impact of oil and coal price fluctuations on cost logic [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China also rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton. The basis shrank by 35 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened slightly from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, and the far - month structure remained at a discount [1] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 5762 lots to 199,600 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13,300 lots to 94,000 lots, indicating increased short - term capital games and some short - sellers closing their positions [1] - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.98 percentage points to 63.28%, with the coal - based operating rate rising by 2.53 percentage points to 58.98%, and the oil - based operating rate remaining at a high of 66.15%. All process routes are in losses, but no large - scale production cuts have occurred, resulting in continuous short - term supply pressure [1] - **Demand**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43% without change. Weak terminal orders led to mainly rigid demand procurement of polyester raw materials, and the demand side lacked upward drivers [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 58,500 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating faster unloading at ports but lower shipping efficiency and accumulating explicit inventory pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose from 4422 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the East China market rose from 4455 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, also a 0.79% increase. The basis decreased from 38 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a 92.11% decline [4] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of MEG widened from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a 26.67% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased from 83 yuan/ton to 76 yuan/ton, an 8.43% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 38 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a 13.16% decrease [4] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 314 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage points to 63.3%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.0%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase; the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase; the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decrease [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the negotiation price in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained stable in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton. The price in the South China market increased, but the trading was light. Affected by the US - Russia meeting and weekend polyester sales, the futures market adjusted upwards, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4485 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at East China main ports, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums. The tight - balance pattern of supply remains unchanged, domestic demand has resilience but high prices suppress restocking flexibility, and overseas demand is weak. The probability of a September interest rate cut indicated by CME interest rate futures has risen to 90%, and the weakening dollar provides support, but the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk may cause emotional fluctuations [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 11, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton or 0.74% from August 8. The spot premium strengthened, with the premium of premium copper rising from 160 yuan/ton on August 8 to 230 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper also expanding to 110 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 month spread narrowed to - 69.55 dollars/ton but remained in a deep contango range [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest increased by 3,820 lots to 267,065 lots on August 8, which may reflect some short - covering. The SHFE inventory on August 11 was 155,700 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. The LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons to 23,275 tons in a single week, increasing the overseas visible inventory pressure [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Part of the El Teniente copper mine under Codelco was approved to restart, but four mining areas remained closed due to a collapse accident, and the annual output recovery needs observation. Chifeng Gold's Laos SND project disclosed 131.5 million tons of copper - gold ore resources, but it is in the resource exploration stage and is difficult to contribute to short - term supply. Chile's copper export value in July decreased slightly by 0.4% year - on - year. Combined with the transformation of Baiyin Nonferrous's copper concentrate warehouse, the raw material supply for domestic smelting has been enhanced, and refined copper supply tends to be loose [3]. - **需求端**: Copper processing enterprises in North China maintained stable operation, but the high price of 79,000 yuan/ton suppressed downstream purchasing flexibility. The spot market showed a game between "holders holding up prices" and "rigid - demand buyers pressing down prices", and there were no obvious peak - season characteristics in terminal consumption. Overseas, the continuous contango of LME indicated insufficient overseas demand [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventories showed differentiation: LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons, COMEX inventory slightly increased to 264,140 short tons, while SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in China's bonded area was not disclosed, but the closed import window suppressed the customs declaration volume, and the sustainability of short - term destocking was questionable [5]. Market Summary - Short - term judgment: The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, mainly driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM 1 copper premium copper price on August 11 was 79,190 yuan/ton with a premium of 230 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively from August 8. The flat - water copper premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The wet - process copper premium remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) spread was - 82 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton. The LME price was 9,727 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars/ton. The LME inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The SHFE inventory was 155,700 tons, down 150 tons. The COMEX inventory was 265,196 short tons, up 1,056 short tons [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 11, Codelco was approved to partially restart the El Teniente copper mine, with four mining areas near the collapse accident site remaining closed [9]. - On August 10, the unaffected areas of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine were approved to resume operation by the Chilean labor department [9]. - On August 8, Chifeng Gold announced new copper - gold ore resources in its Laos SND project, but it is in the exploration stage [9]. - On August 8, Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [10]. - On August 7, Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of its copper concentrate warehouse, which will improve storage and transportation efficiency [10]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has soared due to supply disruptions and market sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been substantially reversed. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by import increases. The downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the weak trading reflects the limited acceptance of high prices in the industry chain. The continuous accumulation of social inventory and warehouse receipts suppresses the rebound momentum of spot prices. It is expected that the price will enter a high - level oscillation range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25% from August 8. Affected by the news of the lithium mine shutdown over the weekend, all contracts were at the daily limit. The basis weakened significantly from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased slightly by 0.94% to 317,600 lots, and the trading volume dropped sharply by 95.75% to 38,000 lots, indicating a highly consistent bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - **Supply and Demand in the Industrial Chain and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area stopped production on August 9 due to the expiration of the mining license, restricting the supply of lithium mica. However, the lithium extraction capacity from spodumene remained high, and there was potential supply elasticity from overseas mines in Africa and South America, resulting in a differentiated supply pressure in China. Lithium salt plants could make up for short - term shortages through inventory or imported ores. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. In July, the retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 10% month - on - month, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate materials rebounded to 32,850 yuan/ton, supported by the stocking demand of energy storage and some battery factories. The price of ternary materials remained stable, indicating that the demand for vehicle - used power batteries had not significantly increased. As of August 7, the social inventory increased to 142,400 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory soared to 18,800 tons, indicating a loose supply in the spot circulation link and strong delivery intention, which suppressed the upward space of near - month contracts [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has rapidly risen due to supply disruptions and sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been resolved. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by imports. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the light trading reflects limited acceptance of high prices. The continuous accumulation of inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate at a high level in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From August 8 to August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 76,960 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.25%. The basis weakened from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.94% to 317,676 lots, and the trading volume dropped by 95.75% to 38,071 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.33% to 72,200 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose by 12.5% to 900 yuan/ton, and the market price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 8.33% to 975 yuan/ton. From August 1 to August 8, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 63.92%, and the lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.49% to 142,418 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 74,567 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 74,500 yuan/ton. The suspension of mining in the Jiangxi Jianxiawo area affected the output of lithium mica and related lithium carbonate, causing the lithium carbonate futures to open at the daily limit. However, the increase in spodumene - based lithium carbonate and the use of inventory or zero - order purchases by related lithium salt plants could prevent a significant shortage in the spot market. Both upstream and downstream parties were cautious, and market trading was light [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.003 million, a 14% year - on - year increase but a 10% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 1.179 million, a 25% year - on - year increase but a 4% month - on - month decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: From late July to the end of the month, the price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. On the supply side, major mining companies suspended public quotations, and some traders reduced inventory and controlled shipments. On the demand side, the price increase of cobalt smelting products was slower than that of cobalt intermediate products, leading to cost inversion for smelting plants. Some smelting enterprises with low inventory planned to substitute raw materials or reduce production. Affected by the delay policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the supply of cobalt intermediate products in China may be short, and prices may rise, but the impact on downstream demand needs attention [8][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term PX and PTA prices may maintain a volatile pattern, while in the long - term, attention should be paid to whether the demand side can form continuous pull [4]. - The prices of the industrial chain are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, mainly driven by the contradiction between the continuous compression of PTA processing fees forcing upstream production cuts and the extension of the raw material stocking cycle of weaving enterprises [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 11, the PX main contract closed at 6778.0 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 73.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4706.0 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on August 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 467.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 479.13 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, a 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China shut down last weekend, and another 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant restarted. Weilian Chemical's 1 - million - ton PX plant recently resumed operation after maintenance at the end of June. Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 4 - million - ton PX plant reduced its load from July 17 to around August 10. Currently, the PTA start - up rate has rebounded, which supports the PX market [2]. - The downstream demand is weak, suppressing the price. The transaction volume of Light Textile City is lower than the 15 - day average, indicating weak procurement sentiment in the terminal textile market. The lack of incremental drivers in the consumption of polyester products such as polyester fiber restricts the recovery space of PTA demand. The increasing negative feedback pressure from downstream may lead to a further decline in the polyester start - up rate, weakening the demand elasticity of PTA [3]. - The PTA factory inventory is at a neutral level, and the current price rebound of PTA is mainly driven by cost and supply reduction expectations rather than inventory depletion. However, if the terminal demand continues to weaken, PTA inventory may accumulate passively, suppressing the medium - term price increase space [4]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6408.0 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 82.0 yuan/ton [5]. - From the supply side, the PX futures price fluctuated widely, and the PTA futures price declined continuously, indicating that the supply pressure at the raw material end was gradually transmitted downstream. On the demand side, the 15 - day moving average of the transaction volume of Light Textile City continued to decline, indicating a marginal weakening of terminal weaving demand. In terms of inventory, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber, FDY, and DTY are all higher than the historical average, reflecting that the industrial chain is in an active de - stocking cycle [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 0.77% to 6778 yuan/ton, the main contract trading volume increased by 14.70% to 74,068 lots, and the main contract open interest decreased by 7.36% to 84,351 lots [7]. - PTA futures: The main contract price increased by 0.47% to 4706 yuan/ton, the main contract trading volume increased by 28.06% to 444,706 lots, and the main contract open interest decreased by 2.58% to 682,845 lots [7]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 0.41% to 6408 yuan/ton, the main contract trading volume increased by 0.90% to 110,830 lots, and the main contract open interest increased by 1.19% to 180,318 lots [7]. - Other prices: The prices of most products in the industrial chain remained unchanged on August 11 compared with August 8, except for slight increases in the prices of Brent crude oil and US crude oil main contracts [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 11, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supported starting interest rate cuts in September and cutting interest rates three times this year. JPMorgan Chase changed its expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year from once to three times [9]. - On August 11, Guangdong's CPI in July decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.0% year - on - year. In July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month; the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed for the first time since March [9]. - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve as a Federal Reserve governor until January 31, 2026. Waller became a hot candidate for the new Fed chairman. The US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Fed chairman. Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Fed's view of the employment target [9]. - On August 8, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and four voting members supported keeping interest rates unchanged. It was the first time to hold two votes in history. In July, China's imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [9]. - On August 8, the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, with the gold reserve at the end of July reaching 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [10]. 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand - On August 11, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 467.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. The transaction volume of long - fiber fabrics was 383.0 million meters, and the transaction volume of short - fiber fabrics was 86.0 million meters [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current ethylene glycol market is in a game between weak reality and strong cost. The rapid increase in port inventories and the lack of improvement in downstream demand continue to suppress the upside price space, while the widespread deep losses in production processes increase the resistance to further price declines. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of device maintenance dynamics caused by low valuations and the polyester peak - season expectations on market sentiment. If port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of the price breaking through the cost support downward [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract dropped slightly for two consecutive days, reaching 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day. The East China spot price also weakened, reaching 4,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 10 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot market has relatively stronger support for futures, but the absolute price is still under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton, suggesting a pessimistic medium - to - short - term supply - demand outlook [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract significantly shrank. On the 8th, the trading volume decreased by 36,000 lots to 80,700 lots, a decline of 30.99%, and the open interest decreased by 11,500 lots to 205,300 lots, indicating obvious signs of capital withdrawal and a shift in market trading sentiment towards caution [2]. - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.3%, with the operating loads of oil - based (66.15%), coal - based (56.45%), and methanol - based (62.43%) plants remaining unchanged. All production processes continued to operate at a loss, with coal - based profits remaining at - 234 yuan/ton, and losses of 88.51 US dollars/ton, 703.99 yuan/ton, and 1,165.23 yuan/ton for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based processes respectively. Cost pressure limited supply elasticity [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. There was no increase in terminal textile demand, and combined with the seasonal weakening of foreign trade orders, downstream procurement willingness for ethylene glycol was mainly rigid, making it difficult to drive inventory digestion [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port climbed to 485,700 tons, a significant weekly increase of 59,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.6% (52,000 tons), highlighting the port inventory accumulation pressure. Although the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons compared to the previous period, the slowdown in port shipments led to an unexpected inventory accumulation speed, and the supply - demand contradiction continued to accumulate [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased from 4,430 yuan/ton on the 7th to 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The East China spot price decreased from 4,465 yuan/ton to 4,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.22% [2][5]. - **Spreads**: The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton [2][5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [3][5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons, a weekly increase of 13.69%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, an increase of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [3][5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 8, the focus of the East China US dollar market remained stagnant, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were reported [6]. - On August 8, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [6]. - On August 8, the mainstream market adjusted downward, the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered, and the market trading atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,500 yuan/ton for delivery [6]. - On August 8, the meeting between the US and Russia made progress, international oil prices continued to decline, ethylene glycol supply gradually returned, market sentiment turned bearish, and the market price adjusted downward, with the current East China price negotiated around 4,455 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the East China main port (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11][14][16][18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [2] - Report Author: R & D Department of Tonghui Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Pure Benzene: Supply increases slightly due to new installations, demand remains stable, inventory decreases slightly. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally in August - September, but the improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption [4] - Styrene: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, showing a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It will remain in oversupply in August - September, but the relatively strong price of pure benzene provides some support [5] Group 4: Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - Price: On August 8, the styrene main contract closed down 0.84% at 7,235 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 (+11 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.70% at 6,204 yuan/ton [3] - Cost: On August 8, Brent crude oil closed at $63.9/barrel (-$0.5/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.4/barrel (-$0.5/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,107.5 yuan/ton (-37.5 yuan/ton) [3] - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 211,000 tons (-6,000 tons), a 2.71% MoM decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 159,000 tons (-5,000 tons), a 3.05% MoM decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 163,000 tons (-7,000 tons), a 4.12% MoM decrease [3] - Supply: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, with overall stable supply. Weekly styrene output was 359,000 tons (-2,000 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization was 43.7% (-10.6%), ABS was 71.1% (+5.2%), and PS was 55.0% (+1.7%) [3] Views - Pure Benzene: Supply increases slightly, demand is stable, and inventory decreases due to typhoon - affected arrivals. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally in 8 - 9 months, but the improvement is limited [4] - Styrene: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and it is expected to remain in oversupply in 8 - 9 months. However, the strong pure benzene price provides support [5] Group 5: Industry Chain Data Monitoring Price Data - Styrene: The main contract price decreased by 0.84% to 7,235 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased slightly [7] - Pure Benzene: The main contract price decreased by 0.70% to 6,204 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions also showed slight declines [7] - Upstream: Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while naphtha prices remained unchanged [7] Production and Inventory Data - Production: Styrene production decreased slightly to 359,000 tons, and pure benzene production increased to 446,000 tons [8] - Inventory: Styrene and pure benzene inventories all decreased [8] Capacity Utilization Data - Styrene: Capacity utilization decreased to 77.7% [9] - Pure Benzene Downstream: The capacity utilization of some products changed, such as a decrease in caprolactam and an increase in adipic acid [9] - Styrene Downstream: EPS capacity utilization decreased significantly, while ABS and PS increased [9] Group 6: Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply affects naphtha costs, with expected record - high naphtha imports in 2025 [10] - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chain [10] - India accelerates petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [10] Group 7: Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, inventory, and capacity utilization [11][21][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. Supply - side factors such as mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. On the demand side, the weakness in construction and exports offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,440 yuan/ton. The spot premium - discount structure strengthened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 160 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowed to 95 yuan/ton, indicating short - term tight supply in the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount slightly widened to - 65.63 dollars/ton, highlighting the divergence in spot premiums and discounts between the domestic and international markets [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On August 7, the LME copper position decreased by 2,005 lots to 263,245 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The SHFE contract position remained stable, and the trading volume slightly shrank, indicating a decline in short - term capital participation [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end. Although Chifeng Gold discovered new copper resources in Laos, actual capacity release will take a long time. Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the supply - side growth rate may slow down. Baiyin Nonferrous completed the intelligent transformation of the copper concentrate warehouse, improving the ore unloading efficiency by 40%. However, the anode copper enterprise开工率 in August decreased by 3.96% month - on - month, and there is still pressure on refined copper supply in the short term [2] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand is significantly differentiated. The new energy sector performs strongly, with the cumulative power generation of wind power increasing by 10.6% year - on - year and the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.4% year - on - year. However, the copper consumption in the construction/real estate sector decreased year - on - year, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic sector declined after the rush - installation, dragging down copper consumption. The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes led to blocked exports, and the domestic copper terminal PMI further contracted (expected to drop to 47.49% in August), resulting in insufficient overall demand - side support [2] - **Inventory Side**: On August 8, the LME inventory increased by 1,127 tons to 21,272 tons compared with the previous day, showing a continuous three - day inventory accumulation trend and indicating obvious pressure on visible inventory. The SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons but remained at a high level this year, indicating weak domestic consumption momentum. The COMEX inventory also increased moderately, and the marginal increase in global inventory put pressure on copper prices [2] c. Market Summary - The copper market may continue the oscillating trend within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. The supply - side factors of mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. The weakness in construction and exports on the demand side offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, 2025, the SMM 1 copper price was 78,640 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous day; the SHFE price was 78,440 yuan/ton, also a 0.05% increase. The LME price was 9,768 dollars/ton, a 1.01% increase. The LME inventory increased by 5.59% to 21,272 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.32% to 264,140 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 7, Chifeng Gold announced a new discovery in its SND gold - copper mine project in Laos, with about 131.5 million tons of ore and a gold - equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [6] - In July, Chile's copper export value was 3.99 billion dollars, a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [6] - Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of the 19 line concentrate warehouse, which will increase the ore storage capacity from 30,000 tons to 47,000 tons and improve the unloading efficiency by 40% [7] - SMM expects that the overall anode copper enterprise开工率 in China in August will decrease by 3.96 percentage points to 57.15% [7] - The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes has led to blocked exports, and the US copper tube processing fee has significantly increased. The follow - up situation of whether the US will relax the tariff on Mexican copper materials needs to be concerned [7] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][12][13][15][18][20][24][26][29]

一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 原油溢价显著收窄叠加供应宽松，期价弱势延续 主力合约与基差： SC原油主力合约价格于8月8日跌至489.8元/桶，较前一 日下跌2.24%，呈现连续第五日下行，走势疲软；WTI和Brent价格则维持 63.82和66.41美元/桶的稳定状态。SC与Brent、WTI的价差分别走弱47.49% 和26.92%，显示中国原油期货相对国际油价的溢价显著收窄。SC连续-连三 价差收窄至8.6元/桶（前值12元），近弱远强结构弱化，反映市场对短期 供应过剩的担忧。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 俄罗斯萨拉托夫炼油厂遇袭事件可能对俄罗斯成品油出口形成扰动，但俄 罗斯已表态将提升加工量以保障燃料供应。伊拉克下调9月对北美和欧洲的 原油官方售价，暗示其抢占市场份额的意图，叠加加拿大和中东重质原油 产量回升，全球原油供应偏宽松。 需求端： 印度批准3000亿卢比LPG补贴，可能提振居民燃料消费，但炼厂需求端出现 分化：美国炼油商受益于重质原油供应增加，盈利预期改善；中国沥青、 燃料油等成品价格下跌，叠加7月PPI延续负增长，暗示基建及工业用油需 求尚未实质回暖。 库存端： 美国 ...