能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 成本：12 月 17 日布油主力收盘 55.1 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 58.9 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5285 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 纯苯苯乙烯高库存淡季承压震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 17 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.37%，报 6404 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.96%，报 5388 元/吨。 （2）观点 纯苯：短期来看，国内纯苯到港高峰阶段性结束，港口库存增速明显放 缓，但库存 ...

短期矛盾放缓，碳酸锂高位盘整静待契机 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月16日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 100600元/吨，较12月15日下跌0.46%。基差走强，12月16日为-4800元/ 吨，较12月15日收窄1960元。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量继续扩大，12月16日达666027手，较12月15日增加 3842手。成交量收缩，12月16日为597317手，较2025年12月15日减少 102284手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格2025年12月16日小幅走高至9665元/吨，较2025 年12月15日上涨97元，而锂云母精矿价格维持稳定在5175元/吨。产能利用 率显著提升，2025年12月12日达83.52%，较2025年12月5日的75.34%上升 8.18个百分点。资讯显示，伴随新产线投产及下游需求拉动，12月国内碳 酸锂产量预计环比增长约3%，供应端整体稳步扩张。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙 ...

乙二醇供给端开工率稳定但利润分化，煤制和天然气制利润恶化可能限制 产能扩张，而乙烯制利润改善提供支撑；需求端聚酯和织机负荷持稳，下 游消费韧性较强；但库存端华东主港库存连续增加，叠加期货升水扩大和 成交放量，反映市场情绪偏多但基本面压力犹存。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 乙二醇利空兑现，关注估值低位反弹可能性 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇期货主力合约价格较前一日上涨49元至3700元/ 吨，涨幅1.34%，延续近日震荡上行趋势；华东市场现货价格同步上涨40元 至3670元/吨，涨幅1.1%。基差方面，现货对期货贴水从-21元扩大至-30 元，显示期货升水结构强化，可能反映市场对远期供需的乐观预期。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量大幅增加67980手至229814手，涨幅 42.01%，交易活跃度显著提升；持仓量则减少32035手至170475手，跌幅 15.82%，结合成交放量，暗示短期投机性交易增加，部分头寸选择平仓离 场。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在61.13%，油制和煤制开工率分别持平于 71.18%和49.34%。利润方面分化明显：乙烯制各工艺利润普遍改善，如SD 氧化法利润提升97元至 ...

供应过剩主导原油市场，油价承压破位下行 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025-12-16数据显示，SC原油主力合约价格从436.5元/ 桶小幅回落至430.6元/桶，跌幅1.35%，延续下跌趋势；WTI和Brent主力合 约价格均维持稳定在56.68美元/桶和60.36美元/桶，但走势呈现高位回落 态势。价差方面，SC-Brent价差从1.55美元/桶走弱至0.78美元/桶，跌幅 49.68%，SC-WTI价差从5.23美元/桶走弱至4.46美元/桶，跌幅14.72%，均 显示SC相对弱势；Brent-WTI价差维持稳定在3.68美元/桶；SC连续-连3价 差从-2.4元/桶走强至-2.2元/桶，涨幅8.33%，表明近月合约相对坚挺。 持仓与成交 ：上期所原油期货仓单持平于3464000桶，低硫燃料油仓单增 加20000吨至20040吨，燃料油仓单持平于69550吨，整体库存端变化不大， 但低硫燃料油仓单大幅增加暗示供应压力；SC原油主力合约收盘价下跌 2.24%至423元/桶，后收跌1.58%至430元/桶，价格波动反映成交活跃度较 高。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided in the content - Core view of the report: The sharp decline in oil prices has hit market confidence, and polyester has been dragged down by costs. The supply and demand situation, inventory status and price trends of PX, PTA and polyester in the market are analyzed, and the future price trends of PX and PTA are predicted [2][3][53] Group 2 1. Daily market summary - **PX&PTA**: On December 16, the PX main contract closed at 6,744.0 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -180.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,668.0 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -58.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 60.36 US dollars per barrel, and WTI closed at 56.68 US dollars per barrel. The total turnover of the Light Textile City was 9.78 million meters, with an average turnover of 8.2507 million meters on the 15th [2] - **Polyester**: On December 16, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,106.0 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,265.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 159.0 yuan/ton. The average daily trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) increased significantly from 7.254 million meters to 8.2507 million meters, indicating strong downstream demand. The inventory of polyester staple fiber was 4.41 days, far lower than the historical average, indicating tight supply; the inventory of polyester filament POY was 16.7 days, roughly normal; the inventory of FDY was 22.2 days and the inventory of DTY was 23.9 days, both may be slightly higher than the historical average, indicating the risk of inventory backlog [5] 2. Industrial chain price monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,744 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 7.74%, and open interest decreased by 2.89%. The CFR price of the Chinese main port and the FOB price of South Korea in the PX spot market remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 18.18% [7] - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,668 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 72.20%, and open interest increased by 113.51%. The CFR price of the Chinese main port in the PTA spot market remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 222.22%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 11.76%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 4.17%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00%. PTA import profit increased by 0.57% [7] - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,106 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 7.61%, and open interest decreased by 3.13%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged. The PF basis decreased by 4.79%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 43.75%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 37.50%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40.00% [7] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester FDY remained unchanged. The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester staple fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester FDY remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread increased by 2.54%. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased by 7.47%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 6.14%, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 13.22%. The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory of polyester staple fiber decreased by 30.88%, the inventory of polyester POY increased by 2.45%, the inventory of polyester FDY increased by 4.72%, and the inventory of polyester DTY decreased by 1.65% [7][8] 3. Industrial dynamics and interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On December 16, Argentina planned to expand the fluctuation range of the foreign exchange rate monthly in line with the increase in CPI from 2026; the competition for the candidate for the Fed Chairman intensified, and Hassett faced opposition from senior officials around Trump; New York Fed President Williams and Boston Fed President Collins supported a December rate cut, and Fed Governor Milan thought the Fed's policy stance was too tight; India's gold imports in November decreased by about 60%; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China adjusted the personal precious metal trading business on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. On December 15, Fed's Goolsbee said to wait for more data before cutting rates, and expected more rate cuts in 2026; Schmid thought inflation was still too high; Paulson was more concerned about employment risks; Trump preferred former Fed Governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed the Fed Chairman; the People's Bank of China said to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [9] - **Supply - demand - demand**: On December 16, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 9.78 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.47%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 7.8 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.97 million meters [10] Future price judgment - **Supply side**: PX device operating rate may be high or supply may increase, as the falling PX price and negative basis imply sufficient supply in the spot market. PTA supply may be tight or the operating rate may be low, as the rising PTA price indicates [53][55] - **Demand side**: Although the polyester operating rate is not provided, the significantly higher trading volume in the Light Textile City than the average indicates strong downstream textile demand, which drives polyester and PTA demand. The high trading volume in the Light Textile City implies good terminal demand [58] - **Inventory side**: Although the PTA factory inventory is not provided, strong demand may lead to a decrease in inventory, which is favorable for prices [59] - **Overall**: PX supply may be loose, and its price may continue to be pressured with a slight downward risk; PTA demand is strong, supply may be tight, and its price may rise [60][61]

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 纯苯到港承压库存走高，苯乙烯低供去库支撑震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 16 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.09%，报 6493 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.15%，报 5440 元/吨。 成本：12 月 16 日布油主力收盘 56.8 美元/桶（-0.6 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 60.6 美元/桶（-0.5 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5295 元/吨（-20 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 （2）观点 纯苯：近期纯苯基本面压力仍以现实端为主。国内到港量维持高位，主 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The price range is expected to be between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory increases and potential capacity expansion are putting pressure on prices, while the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data [3][62]. 3. Section Summaries Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract dropped slightly from 92,280 yuan/ton on December 15th to 91,870 yuan/ton on December 16th, a decline of 0.44%. The basis weakened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - priced copper, and wet - process copper deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount changed from 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 10th to - 4.39 US dollars/ton on December 15th [1][59]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,912 lots to 351,056 lots on December 15th, indicating an expansion in position volume. However, the SMM Yangshan copper premium market had a cold offer on December 16th, with weak spot trading and a contraction in trading volume [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There is potential for increased supply. On December 15th, Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc involving US mines and smelters, expected to be completed in 2026. Fortescue acquired Alta Copper Company, and Hubei Zeming's 50,000 - ton anode copper project is advancing. LME inventory increased from 42,226 tons on December 15th to 45,784 tons on December 16th, an increase of 8.43%, and COMEX inventory also rose, showing supply pressure [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is weak. China's industrial output and retail sales data were below expectations. Asia - Pacific Technology's "aluminum replacing copper" project in the home appliance field may substitute some copper demand. Although Xiaomi's Wuhan smart home appliance factory was put into operation and Gree Electric Appliance is developing robot parts, the SMM North China electrolytic copper market had low activity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [2][60]. - **Inventory Side**: Overall inventory increased. LME and COMEX inventories rose, while SHFE inventory remained stable at 165,875 tons, suggesting a loose supply - demand pattern [2][61]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side inventory increase and potential capacity expansion are pressuring prices, the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data. The copper price is expected to range between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the current situation of the copper market, indicating that the short - term contradictions in electrolytic copper continue due to regional market delivery pressure. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks, influenced by factors such as supply - side pressure, weak demand, and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment [3][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of the SHFE main contract on December 15, 2025, was 92,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from December 12, showing a slight decline. The premium of premium copper increased from 10 yuan/ton on December 12 to 85 yuan/ton on December 15, strengthening the basis [1][58]. - On December 12, 2025, the LME copper positions increased by 3,298 lots to 348,144 lots, and the trading volume expanded, indicating increased market activity [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The LME inventory increased to 42,226 tons on December 15, 2025, a 29.67% increase from December 9, indicating increased supply pressure. Recently, BMC Mining listed on the Australian Stock Exchange to advance the KZK project, and Fortescue acquired AltaCopper's Canariaco project, which may increase future copper supply [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: On December 15, 2025, downstream procurement was weak. The decline in copper prices but still high absolute prices suppressed demand. The acceleration of aluminum - replacing - copper industrialization by Huafeng Aluminum may replace some copper demand [2][61]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory increased significantly, the COMEX inventory increased to 450,618 short tons on December 12, 2025, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 165,875 tons on December 15, 2025. Overall, the global inventory level increased, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation [2][62]. Price Trend Judgment The driving factors include increased supply pressure from inventory accumulation and potential new projects on the supply side; suppressed demand from weak downstream procurement and the risk of aluminum replacement on the demand side; and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [3][63].

碳酸锂诸多谜题未解，十万下方窄幅波动蓄势待发 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月15日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 97720元/吨，较12月12日下跌1160元/吨。基差走强，从12月12日的-6380 元/吨收窄至-3720元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量小幅扩大，12月15日增至636384手，较12月12日的 634283手增加2101手；成交量同步扩大至757689手，较前值744190手增加 13499手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿市场价于12月15日小幅走高至9410元/吨，较12月12 日上涨350元/吨；锂云母精矿价格维持稳定在4990元/吨。产能利用率大幅 上升，12月12日达83.52%，较12月5日的75.34%提升8.18个百分点，主因新 产线投产及盐场工艺优化推动供应增长。资讯显示，12月国内碳酸锂产量 预计环比增长约3%，供应端压力持续。 需求端 ：下游需求整体持稳但分化明显。正极材料价格小幅上扬，12月15 日动力型三元材料涨至145800元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂升至39680元/吨。电 芯排产高位，但乘联会数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of PTA is marginally strengthening, and attention should be paid to the recent valuation rebound space. The prices of PX and PTA may continue a mild upward trend due to positive factors on the demand side, but the supply - side pressure may limit the increase. Specifically, PX prices may rise slightly, and PTA prices may increase [1][2][43][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On December 15, the PX main contract closed at 6,784.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 220.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,628.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on December 15, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.22 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.53 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on December 15, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 1,057.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 806.53 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate is expected to remain high with limited plant changes. The PTA operating rate is high, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans in the near future, reducing the overall supply - surplus risk compared to expectations. The terminal textile industry has average operating conditions, and the polyester industry maintains its operation. Positive factors on the demand side may drive the prices of PX and PTA to continue a mild upward trend [2]. - On the inventory side, the PTA factory inventory level is expected to be moderate with controllable pressure but no significant inventory - reduction motivation. The current inventory status has a neutral impact on prices. If the demand side continues to strengthen, inventory may be gradually digested, providing marginal support for PTA prices [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - The 15 - day moving average (MA15) of the trading volume of the China Light Textile City has been rising, from 725.4 million meters on December 8 to 806.53 million meters on December 15, indicating a significant increase in terminal demand and active downstream textile industry activities [4]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 4.41 days, at a low level, possibly driven by demand. Among the inventories of polyester filament, DTY was 23.9 days, FDY was 22.2 days, and POY was 16.7 days, with the overall filament inventory being high. In the short term, the prices of polyester products will mainly fluctuate and may rise slightly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and inventory changes [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,784 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.38% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 7.46%, and the main contract open interest increased by 5.41%. PX spot prices in the Chinese main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 41.94% [5]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,628 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.30% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 38.09%, and the main contract open interest decreased by 13.22%. PTA spot prices in the Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 350.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 13.33%, the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.19% [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,098 yuan/ton on December 15, up 0.40% from December 12. The main contract trading volume decreased by 26.42%, and the main contract open interest decreased by 0.30%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged. The PF basis decreased by 13.26%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.88%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 33.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 24.53% [5]. - Other industrial chain prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on December 15 compared to December 12 [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester staple fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread decreased by 0.81% [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: On December 15, the total trading volume was 1,057 million meters, a 4.97% increase from December 12. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 831 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 227 million meters [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on December 15 compared to December 12 [6]. - Inventory days: As of December 11, 2025, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 30.88% compared to December 4, the inventory days of polyester POY increased by 2.45%, the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 4.72%, and the inventory days of polyester DTY decreased by 1.65% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On December 15, Federal Reserve officials had different views on monetary policy. Trump said he preferred to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed the Fed chairman. The People's Bank of China stated that it would flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On December 12, the Fed reappointed 11 regional Fed presidents, alleviating concerns about personnel uncertainty. On December 12, informed sources said that the US, Ukraine, and the EU would hold a meeting in Paris on Saturday regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On December 15, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 1,057.0 million meters, a 4.97% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 831.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 227.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures spreads, short - fiber futures spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber and filament sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][14][16][18][21][23][26][28].