Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue to oscillate at a low level due to significant inventory accumulation pressure, with limited upside potential for prices without a boost in demand or a substantial reduction in supply [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 3,986.0 yuan/ton to 3,933.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.0 yuan or 1.33%. The East China spot price fell from 3,675.0 yuan/ton to 3,630.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan or 1.22%. The basis narrowed from -311 yuan to -303 yuan, indicating a reduced futures discount [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract increased from 286,954 lots to 312,882 lots, an increase of 25,928 lots or 9.04%, reflecting increased market activity. Open interest slightly increased from 398,467 lots to 400,272 lots, an increase of 1805 lots or 0.45%, suggesting intensified long - short competition without a clear direction [1] - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased from 66.19% to 65.31%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, mainly dragged down by the coal - based operating rate, which dropped from 54.92% to 52.53%. The oil - based operating rate remained stable at 69.34%. Coal - based profit increased from - 193.33 yuan/ton to - 50.53 yuan/ton, while oil - based profit decreased from - 688.0 yuan/ton to - 803.0 yuan/ton [1] - **Demand Side**: The downstream polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained stable at 63.43%, indicating stable but ungrowing terminal consumption [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port increased from 858,000 tons to 897,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons or 4.55%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased from 443,000 tons to 454,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons or 2.48%, showing an obvious inventory accumulation trend [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures Data**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest slightly increased. The spot price also decreased, and the basis narrowed [4] - **Profit Data**: Profits from most ethylene - based production methods decreased, while coal - based, natural - gas - based, and oilfield associated - gas - based profits increased [4] - **Operating Rate Data**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased, mainly due to the decline in the coal - based operating rate, while the oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained stable [4] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory at the East China main port and Zhangjiagang increased [4] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On February 5, the East China US - dollar - denominated ethylene glycol market weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon. The international crude oil price continued to strengthen, but due to the weak supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol, the market was bearish on the future. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and the East China price was around 3,640 yuan/ton. The mainstream market adjusted weakly, with prices in the South China and Shaanxi markets also decreasing [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [6][8][10][12][14][16]

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 2 月 6 日 星期五 供增需弱预期显现，芳烃估值承压 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：2 月 5 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.13%，报 7689 元/吨；纯苯 主力合约收跌 1.34%，报 6127 元/吨。 成本：2 月 5 日布油主力收盘 65.1 美元/桶（+1.9 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 69.5 美元/桶（+2.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6110 元/吨（-75 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 30.5 万吨（+0.8 万吨），库存高 位去化。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 10.1 万吨（+0.7 万吨），库存一 路走低。 需求：纯苯下游整体变化不大，仅有己内酰胺开工率小幅下滑至 73.6%。苯乙烯下游进入淡季，PS、ABS 开工小幅波动，EPS 开工小幅走 弱，硬胶生产利润进一步压缩。 （2）观点 纯苯：供应端来看，近期国内多套纯苯相关装置存在重启预期，整体供应 量预计上升。需求端方面，苯乙烯装置在高利润支撑下，春节期间降负荷 幅度或相对有限，而苯酚、己内酰胺等其他下游品种因利润 ...

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main contract and basis**: On January 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 165,680 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 3,100 yuan/ton or about 1.84% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 23,840 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Open interest and trading volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased to 416,719 lots, a decrease of 21,909 lots or about 5%. The trading volume increased to 575,675 lots, an increase of 232,870 lots or about 68% [1][32]. *** Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable on January 27, 2026, at 19,470 yuan/ton and 8,700 yuan/ton, respectively. However, information indicated that lithium ore prices had increased slightly recently, and overseas mine quotes had risen. The smelter operating rate remained stable at 87.14%, but the reluctance to sell among upstream lithium salt producers had increased, and some manufacturers had hoarded goods, resulting in a weak willingness to sell spot orders. On January 16, 2026, Yahua Group announced the commissioning of its lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, which increased self - sufficiency, but the overall supply increase was limited [2]. - **Demand side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On January 27, 2026, the price of power ternary materials was 188,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 58,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,185 yuan/ton. Although the prices of some battery cells had increased, the demand for new energy vehicles was weak. According to data from the Passenger Car Association on January 21, 2026, the retail sales from January 1 - 18 decreased by 16% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 23%. Downstream material manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, and some began to stock up for February, but overall purchases were cautious. Coupled with the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand side lacked support [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: As of January 23, 2026, the lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 physical tons, a slight decrease of 783 tons or 0.71% from 109,679 physical tons on January 16, 2026, continuing the de - stocking trend [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The weak demand persists, with the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream purchases restricting the upside space. Meanwhile, although the supply side has support from reluctance to sell and inventory de - stocking, the stable lithium ore prices and high capacity utilization rate limit the rebound strength. The overall market may experience increased volatility under the weak supply - demand balance but lacks a breakthrough driver [3].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 1 月 28 日 星期三 装置运行波动，芳烃基本面变化有限 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：1 月 27 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.69%，报 7649 元/吨；纯苯 主力合约收跌 0.66%，报 5980 元/吨。 成本：1 月 27 日布油主力收盘 60.6 美元/桶（-0.4 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 64.8 美元/桶（-0.3 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6020 元/吨（+55 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 29.7 万吨（-2.7 万吨），库存高 位去化。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 9.4 万吨（-0.7 万吨），库存一路 走低。 需求：纯苯下游整体变化不大，仅有苯胺开工率大幅升至 87.6%。苯 乙烯下游进入淡季，PS、ABS 开工小幅波动，EPS 开工小幅走强，硬胶生 产利润进一步压缩。 （2）观点 纯苯：上周国内石油苯及加氢苯装置开工率不同程度下滑，纯苯产量环 比下降。下游方面，苯乙烯、苯酚及己内酰胺装置开工小幅回落，但苯胺 开工率明显提升，带动纯苯下游加权开工率环比上升。受寒 ...

有色贵金属海外流动性再收紧，铜价短期难突破 一、日度市场总结 产业链供需及库存变化分析 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：LME铜主力合约价格2026年1月27日走高至13183.0美元/ 吨，较近期高点13407美元/吨回落约2%。基差方面，LME(0-3)贴水加深至 2026年1月27日的-71.07美元/吨，基差走弱；国内现货升贴水如升水铜、 平水铜和湿法铜贴水均加深。 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓量在2026年1月26日增加7465手至332992手，持仓 量扩大。 供给端 ：供给端有所改善，全球矿业公司加速采用生物浸出等新技术从低 品位矿石提取铜，缓解传统矿山供应限制；同时，中国2025年12月再生铜 进口量达23.90万吨，宁波海关进口量居首，显示进口补充增加。LME和 SHFE库存小幅减少，但整体供应压力因新产能释放而缓解。 需求端 ：需求端持续疲软，高铜价抑制下游消费，导致电力、建筑、汽车 等领域需求减弱；下游逢低采购规模有限，无法扭转现货贴水格局，消费 疲软进一步加剧库存累积。 库存端 ：库存端整体偏高，LME库存2026年1月27日降至145314吨，SHFE库 存从171700吨降 ...

美铜在前高位置震荡，市场进入指引真空期 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年1月26日沪铜主力合约收于101880元/吨；LME铜 价收于13128.5美元/吨。基差方面，SMM升水铜贴水从2026年1月23日 的-110元/吨加深至2026年1月26日的-135元/吨；LME(0-3)贴水从-82.84美 元/吨收窄至-66.06美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓在2026年1月23日增加9606手至325527手，持仓量 扩大；市场交投活跃度边际回暖，但现货成交受贴水压制维持清淡。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn 供给端 ：供给端压力增加，SHFE于2026年1月26日批准江铜国兴新增18万 吨冶炼产能注册，提升国内供应；BHP罢工事件导致道路封锁，但2026年1 月资讯显示暂未影响铜矿生产。LME、SHFE和COMEX库存均上升，反映供给 充 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - Pure benzene is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term, with its cost supported by strong crude oil prices. The domestic petroleum benzene operating rate may rebound from a low level, and downstream demand is expected to improve slightly [2]. - Styrene is expected to remain in a tight supply - demand balance in the short term, with prices oscillating strongly. The supply increase is limited in the short term, and the market has low expectations for inventory accumulation in the off - season in February [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - On January 26, the styrene main contract closed down 0.08% at 7,702 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.36% at 6,078 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel (+1.1 US dollars/barrel), and the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 65.1 US dollars/barrel (+1.1 US dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,020 yuan/ton (+55 yuan/ton) [2]. - The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 29.7 tons (-2.7 tons), and the inventory of styrene at East China ports was 9.4 tons (-0.7 tons). The overall demand for pure benzene downstream changed little, with only the aniline operating rate rising significantly to 87.6%. The styrene downstream entered the off - season, with small fluctuations in the operating rates of PS and ABS, and a slight increase in the EPS operating rate. The production profit of hard rubber was further compressed [2]. Views - For pure benzene, the operating rates of domestic petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene plants declined last week, leading to a decrease in pure benzene production. The overall demand was stable with a slight increase. Affected by the cold wave, the inventory at East China ports decreased, but the absolute inventory was still at a high level. In the future, the operating rate of domestic petroleum benzene may rebound, and downstream demand is expected to improve slightly. The cost is supported by strong crude oil, and pure benzene will maintain a tight balance in the short term [2]. - For styrene, the supply - side disturbances increased last week, with production and capacity utilization decreasing. The demand was differentiated, and the total consumption of the three major downstream products increased. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the inventory entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the inventory pressure was controllable. The profitability of integrated and non - integrated plants was further repaired. The supply increase is limited in the short term, and styrene will maintain a tight supply - demand balance and strong price oscillation [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Price Data - The styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 7,702 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 1.36% to 7,754 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 81.25% to 203 yuan/ton. The pure benzene futures main contract increased by 0.36% to 6,078 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price increased by 0.92% to 6,020 yuan/ton. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [5]. - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 14.1% to - 381.2 yuan/ton, and the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 22.89% to 320 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.88% to 61.1 US dollars/barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.73% to 65.1 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha increased by 0.10% to 6,893.3 yuan/ton [5]. Production and Inventory Data - The production of styrene in China decreased by 1.73% to 34.9 tons, and the production of pure benzene decreased by 2.54% to 42.5 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 7.06% to 9.4 tons, and the port inventory of pure benzene nationwide decreased by 8.33% to 29.7 tons [6]. Capacity Utilization Data - Among the pure benzene downstream, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased by 1.23% to 69.6%, that of caprolactam decreased by 1.00% to 76.2%, that of phenol decreased by 0.31% to 88.4%, and that of aniline increased by 10.51% to 87.6%. Among the styrene downstream, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 4.65% to 58.7%, that of VBS decreased by 3.00% to 66.8%, and that of PS decreased by 0.10% to 57.3% [7]. 3. Industry News - Trump proposed to increase tariffs on South Korea. - The Prime Minister of Hungary will object to the EU's ban on importing Russian natural gas. - Due to cold weather, oil production in North Dakota, the United States, decreased by 80,000 - 110,000 barrels per day. - A source said that the Russian Ministry of Energy proposed to lift the gasoline export ban in advance. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, higher than the expected 3.7% and the previous value of - 2.2%. - OPEC+ representatives said that they currently expect to maintain the established plan and keep the crude oil production unchanged next month [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides data charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, aniline weekly capacity utilization, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, and phenol weekly capacity utilization [9][12][19][23][28][29]

产业链供需及库存变化分析 美国在中东集结军力，地缘溢价提升 一、日度市场总结 供给端 ：乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂（克拉斯诺达尔地区）可能加剧地缘政 治风险，潜在减少俄罗斯成品油供应；哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田准备恢复石 油产量，预计增加供应；OPEC+代表预计维持当前产量稳定（应对全球供应 过剩和地缘风险），减少政策不确定性；道达尔能源签署协议增加特许权 产量（日均约37万桶油当量），利比亚协议延长至2050年，可能提升长期 供应；俄罗斯能源部提议解除汽油出口禁令，潜在增加成品油出口；英国 石油公司对委内瑞拉跨境机遇感兴趣，暗示供应潜力。 原油期货市场数据变动分析 需求端 ：需求端存在分化迹象。三井住友银行航空资本CEO表示旅行需求 基本面强劲，支撑航空燃料油需求；但美国航班取消（近12000个航班，20 多个机场关闭）可能短期抑制成品油需求；燃料油价格上涨（日内涨幅超 5%）反映成品油需求增加。 主力合约与基差 ：2026-01-26，SC原油期货价格从441.9元/桶升至457.3 元/桶，涨幅3.48%，显著上扬；WTI原油期货价格维持在61.28美元/桶，无 变化；Brent原油期货价格维持在65.44 ...

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main lithium carbonate contract dropped from 181,520 yuan/ton on January 23, 2026, to 165,680 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, a decline of 8.73%, showing a slight pullback. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 216.33%, indicating a significant strengthening of the basis [39]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest decreased from 438,728 lots to 416,719 lots, a reduction of 5.02%, showing a contraction in open interest. The trading volume increased from 342,805 lots to 575,675 lots, a growth of 67.93%, indicating a significant expansion of trading volume [39]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to information, the lithium ore project of Yahua Group (January 16) has improved self - sufficiency; Sigma Lithium (January 23) sold lithium ore and denied operational issues. The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 17,985 yuan/ton to 19,470 yuan/ton (8.26%), and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton (2.35%), indicating an increase in raw material costs. The production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 87.14% [40]. - **Demand Side**: The data from the Passenger Car Association (January 21) showed a year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales, indicating weak demand. However, the prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials (from 186,300 yuan/ton to 190,300 yuan/ton, up 2.15%) and power lithium iron phosphate (from 58,630 yuan/ton to 61,175 yuan/ton, up 4.34%) increased, and the prices of battery cells generally rose, indicating demand support. Information mentioned that the cost of energy - storage battery cells increased, with price transmission lagging, and downstream resistance to high prices. In new energy vehicle exports, PHEV growth was faster than BEV, reflecting a change in demand structure [40]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 109,679 physical tons to 108,896 physical tons (a change of - 783 tons, - 0.71%), showing a slight decline in inventory. Warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but the inventory reduction implied supply tightness or increased demand [40]. Price Trend Judgment Based on the rising supply cost, demand - side support, and decreasing inventory, it is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a possibility of a slight rebound, but attention should be paid to demand changes and macro factors [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene market continues to operate weakly, dominated by high inventory and weak demand in the short term, with subsequent focus on import rhythm and downstream load changes [2] - The styrene market is in a supply - demand game stage, and short - term trends are mainly driven by real - world supply - demand changes, with inventory evolution as the core concern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: On January 5, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.77% at 6,739 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.75% at 5,406 yuan/ton. The main contract of Brent oil closed at $57.3/barrel (-$0.7/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at $60.8/barrel (-$0.5/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,290 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 300,000 tons (+27,000 tons), and the inventory of styrene at East China ports was 139,000 tons (+0 tons) [2] - **Supply**: The processing fees of CFR China and FOB South Korea for styrene slightly rebounded. The styrene plant load rebounded from a low level, but non - integrated plants were still in the loss range [2] - **Demand**: The overall downstream of pure benzene strengthened, while the downstream of styrene entered the off - season. The production profit of hard plastics was continuously compressed, and the finished product inventory pressure remained [2] 3.1.2 Views - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas refined oil cracking spread remains low, pressuring the aromatic hydrocarbon valuation. The domestic supply side has low processing profits, and the demand side is generally weak. In the short term, it is still dominated by high inventory and weak demand [2] - **Styrene**: Overseas supply pressure has marginally increased, and the domestic supply recovery is lower than expected. The demand side is still in the off - season, and the inventory evolution is the core concern [3] 3.2 Industry Data Monitoring - **Price and Yield Data**: From December 31, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as upstream oil prices, showed different degrees of decline or increase. The production of styrene and pure benzene in China decreased slightly, and the inventory of pure benzene ports increased significantly [5][6] - **Capacity Utilization**: From December 26, 2025, to January 2, 2026, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7] 3.3 Industry News - Eight OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to suspend oil production growth in Q1 2026 [8] - The US demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment activities [8] - Other international political and energy - related news, such as the situation in Venezuela, Ukraine's sanctions, and changes in South African fuel prices [8][9][10] 3.4 Industry Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the prices of pure benzene and styrene, their spreads, import and domestic costs, port and factory inventories, and the capacity utilization rates of downstream products [11][14][21]