能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 11 日 星期四 纯苯累库加速压制，苯乙烯需求偏弱承压 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 10 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.63%，报 6469 元/吨，基 差 156（-48 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.95%，报 5440 元/吨。 成本：12 月 10 日布油主力收盘 58.3 美元/桶（-0.6 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 61.9 美元/桶（-0.6 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5310 元/吨（-45 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 16.1 万吨（-0.3 万吨），环比去库 7.5%，苯乙烯 仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 22.4 万吨（+6.0 万吨），环比累库 36.6%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.9%（+1.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.4% （+1.6%），ABS 产能利用率 68.3%（-2.9%），PS 产能利用率 59.0% （+1. ...

现货市场缺乏采买资金认可，铜价高位略显无力 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月09日，SHFE主力合约价格小幅回落至91740元/吨， 较前一交易日跌幅0.97%。基差整体走弱，SMM升水铜贴水从2025-12-08的 210元降至160元，平水铜从65元降至45元，湿法铜从-5元降至-15元； LME(0-3)基差在2025-12-08为8.19美元/吨，较2025-12-03的23.05美元/吨 显著下滑。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓在2025-12-08小幅扩大，增加449手至342321手；但 成交情绪偏弱，SMM沪铜快讯显示日内出货情绪抬升导致成交价格走跌，采 购情绪继续走跌，洋山铜溢价资讯提及市场成交冷清，少量成交集中于35- 45美元/吨。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给有所增强，LME在2025-12-08新增中国弘盛铜业"DJ-HS"阴 极铜注册品牌，可能提升全球流通量；中铁资源鹿鸣矿业截至2025-12-05 铜金属量完成年度计划137.71%，产量超预期；滇中有色近日降低渣选尾矿 含铜至0.162%，提高回收效率；鑫海高导技术突破提升铜导体生产效率 ...

碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月9日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至92800元/ 吨，较前一日下跌2.15%；基差走强，从-2240元/吨升至-500元/吨，增幅 77.68%。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量收缩至575421手，较前一日减少17708手， 降幅2.99%；成交量收缩至512215手，减少87152手，降幅14.54%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿价格维持稳定，12月9日分别为8930元/ 吨和4990元/吨；产能利用率持平于75.34%。据行业资讯，新产线逐步投 产，叠加下游需求拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量环比增长约3%，供给压 力小幅增加。 碳酸锂高位运行修复基差，谁会是下一轮点火契机 需求端 ：新能源汽车需求持续强劲，11月新能源乘用车零售同比增长7%， 批发同比增长20%；电芯及正极材料排产维持高位，但环比略有下滑，动力 型三元材料价格小幅上扬至144700元/吨。 库存与仓单 ：碳酸锂库存持续去化，从11月28日115968吨降至12月5日 113602吨，减少2366吨，降幅2.04%。 价格走势判断 一、日度市场总结 未来一到 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market will maintain a range-bound oscillation dominated by weak reality in the short term, with the price range between 5300 - 5700. The overseas gasoline blending logic has faded, and there is significant pressure on inventory due to concentrated arrivals in December. There is an expectation of supply tightening in the far - month, and the demand is generally weak, but there will be marginal increases in demand from January [2]. - The styrene market remains in a weak equilibrium pattern of high inventory and low demand. The overall inventory pressure persists, and the supply and demand structure generally maintains a weak balance. The price center may still be dominated by weak oscillations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On December 9, the styrene main contract closed down 1.39% at 6576 yuan/ton, with a basis of 204 (+73 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.65% at 5355 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On December 9, Brent crude oil closed at $58.9 per barrel (-$1.2 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $62.5 per barrel (-$1.3 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5355 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 16.1 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 7.5% decrease compared to the previous period, still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 22.4 million tons (+6.0 million tons), a 36.6% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.2 million tons (+0.7 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of the downstream 3S sector has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 56.4% (+1.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 68.3% (-2.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 59.0% (+1.4%) [2]. 2. Industry News - Canada provided an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8]. - The ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, falling short of market expectations [10]. - Fitch lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 - 2027, reflecting an oversupply in the market [10]. - Venezuela's daily oil exports exceeded 900,000 barrels in November despite US pressure [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that there are signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and that interest rate cuts are needed [10]. - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 574,000 barrels in the week ending November 28, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [10]. 3. Industry Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract decreased by 1.39% to 6576 yuan/ton; spot price increased by 0.71% to 6770 yuan/ton; basis increased by 55.73% to 204 yuan/ton [5]. - Pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 1.22% to 5492 yuan/ton; East China spot price decreased by 0.65% to 5355 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [5]. - The difference between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 7.53%, and the difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 212.50% [5]. - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.00% to $58.9 per barrel, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.98% to $62.5 per barrel, and naphtha price remained unchanged [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production increased by 2.32% to 34.2 million tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 million tons [6]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 million tons, and domestic factory inventory decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 million tons [6]. - National pure benzene port inventory increased by 36.59% to 22.4 million tons [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 68.9%, and that of caprolactam decreased by 7.53% to 79.2% [7]. - The capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 0.57% to 81.7%, and that of aniline remained unchanged at 77.2% [7]. - Among styrene downstream, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.51% to 56.4%, the VBS capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.10% to 59.0% [7].

供给过剩需求走弱，PX & PTA 价格承压 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 12月05日，PX 主力合约收6810.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.39%，基差 为-92.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4678.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%， 基差为12.0元/吨。 成本端，12月05日，布油主力合约收盘63.37美元/桶。WTI收59.7美元/ 桶。 供给端 ： PX未来价格走势可能承压下行，主要因供应端持续宽松。当前 PX装置开工率偏高，且无显著检修计划，新产能投放进程加快，导致PX供 应预期增加，这将削弱价格支撑。PTA方面，装置开工率保持高位，叠加部 分重启装置贡献增量，供应过剩压力累积，可能进一步压低PTA价格。 需求端 ： PX和PTA需求端前景偏弱，价格下行风险加大。聚酯开工率近期回落，反映 下游需求不足，且轻纺城成交量持续低迷，表明终端纺织行业景气度疲 软，涤纶消费受抑。这将传导至PTA需求萎缩， ...

乙二醇库存累积压力主导，预计偏弱运行 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从3826.0元/吨下跌至3723.0元/ 吨，跌幅2.69%，反映市场情绪偏弱。基差方面，现货华东市场价格持稳于 3810.0元/吨，而期货价格下跌导致基差由负转正，从-16元/吨扩大至87 元/吨，显示现货相对期货支撑增强。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量大幅增加65.24%至208232手，持仓量上升 4.31%至307881手，表明市场交易活跃度提升，可能伴随多空分歧加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在65.83%，油制和煤制开工率分别维持在 72.38%和55.64%，无显著变化。利润方面，乙烯制各工艺（如SD氧化法利 润增加83元/吨至-1005.64元/吨）和煤制利润（上升28元/吨至214.69元/ 吨）有所改善，但天然气制利润下滑30元/吨至1400元/吨，显示成本端分 化。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷保持在63.43%， 需求端整体平稳，未见明显波动。 库存端 ：华东主港库存增加21000吨至753000吨，张家港库存上升30000吨 至315000吨，库存累积趋势 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 纯苯弱现实强预期，苯乙烯库存高位 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 5 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.27%，报 6556 元/吨，基差 169（+53 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 0.51%，报 5483 元/吨。 成本：12 月 5 日布油主力收盘 59.7 美元/桶（+0.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.3 美元/桶（+0.6 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5330 元/吨（+20 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 16.1 万吨（-0.3 万吨），环比去库 7.5%，苯乙烯 仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 22.4 万吨（+6.0 万吨），环比累库 36.6%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.9%（+1.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.4% （+1.6%），ABS 产能利用率 68.3%（-2.9%），PS 产能利用率 59.0% （+1.4%）。 （2） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the lithium carbonate market on December 3, 2025, and predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the next one to two weeks. The supply is expanding steadily, the demand is relatively stable, the inventory is being depleted but at a slower pace, and the market is divided, resulting in limited downward space but insufficient upward driving force for the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton, and investors need to pay attention to the progress of the annual long - term agreement negotiation and inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped slightly to 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day, continuing the oscillating downward trend; the basis strengthened significantly to 440 yuan/ton, a 2,900 - yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract expanded to 562,836 lots, an increase of 10,597 lots from the previous day, indicating increased market participation; the trading volume expanded significantly to 643,323 lots, an increase of 189,033 lots from the previous day, with accelerated capital inflow [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On December 3, 2025, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,180 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively. The capacity utilization rate was stable at 75.34%. As of November 28, the Lijiagou lithium mine project of Chuanneng Power had basically reached full production. With the gradual commissioning of new production lines, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply side will expand slightly [2]. - **Demand Side**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, in November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% year - on - year and the wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year, with the cumulative sales increasing by 20% - 29% year - on - year, supporting a bright demand expectation in December. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59% to 171,000 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remained stable, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% to 39,485 yuan/ton. The information shows that the cell production schedule is at a high level but slightly declined month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the transaction price is concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation focuses on next year's price and procurement volume [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On December 3, 2025, the inventory dropped to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down, but the overall supply - demand pattern is tight, especially in the energy storage market, which maintains a situation of strong supply and demand [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day; the basis was 440 yuan/ton, a 117.89% increase from the previous day; the position of the main contract was 562,836 lots, a 1.92% increase from the previous day; the trading volume of the main contract was 643,323 lots, a 41.61% increase from the previous day. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 94,100 yuan/ton, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59%, the price of power - type ternary materials remained stable, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% [5]. - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 75.34%, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 physical tons, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 2.37%, the price of 523 square ternary cells remained stable, the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained stable, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained stable, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 1.34% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On December 3, 2025, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 94,719 yuan/ton, a 145 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,350 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 91,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated downward, with the main contract in the range of 92,500 - 97,600 yuan/ton and a closing price of 93,700 yuan/ton. Affected by the news, the futures price on the disk dropped to 92,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the actual market transaction price is mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume. On the supply side, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December is expected to be still bright; the energy storage market continues the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain at a high level in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. In general, against the background of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be de - stocked in December, but the amplitude will be smaller than that in November [6]. 3.3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, from November 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.354 million, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 6% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.504 million, a 20% year - on - year increase; from November 1 to 30, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 13.777 million, a 29% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3.3 Industry News - On November 28, 2025, Chuanneng Power (000155) mentioned in an institutional research that in terms of lithium batteries, the company holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium mine, with a proven ore resource reserve of 38.812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, the price of ternary precursor, the price of ternary materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, the inventory of lithium carbonate, and the selling price of cells, with data sources from iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Steel Union, and the R & D Department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][14][16][17][18][21][23].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 纯苯现实承压偏弱，苯乙烯供应回升 一、 日度市场总结 纯苯：纯苯短期仍处于弱现实与强预期的震荡结构。此前市场关注的海 外调油逻辑在汽油累库、裂解价差回落以及芳烃整体回调后明显弱化， 支撑情绪有所降温。现实端压力在 12 月集中体现，节奏性到港增多叠加 主流买方提货有限，使港口胀库情况加剧，部分库区甚至面临仓储费上 涨压力。需求方面延续淡季特征，CPL 因行业自律减产继续下滑，纯苯消 耗仍偏弱；苯酚、苯胺及己二酸虽有 1 月后的装置恢复计划，但当前实 际改善有限。供应端来看，国内炼厂仍存检修降负预期，韩国歧化与裂解 利润维持低位，使市场对 2026 年初供应收缩的远月逻辑依旧存在。进口 方面，市场对 1 月后进口量预期差较大，对加工费形成不确定性。总体 判断，12 月依旧是纯苯压力最集中时期，在库存累增、需求偏弱的背景 下维持低位震荡。 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 3 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.32%，报 6585 元/吨，基差 115（+64 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.24%，报 5441 元/吨。 成本：12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, within the range of RMB 88,000 - 90,000 per ton for SHFE and USD 11,000 - 11,300 per ton for LME. The driving factors include short - term support from supply - side inventory decline and reduced imports, strong orders in the automotive sector on the demand side but overall procurement being constrained by high copper prices, and the impact of macro - sentiment affected by a stronger US dollar and weakened risk appetite [3][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On December 03, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to RMB 88,970 per ton, up RMB 260 from the previous day. The basis strengthened, with the spot premium widening to RMB 180 per ton, and the LME (0 - 3) premium remained around USD 69.18 per ton [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper holding volume contracted, decreasing by 1,137 lots to 333,305 lots on December 02. The market trading volume was light, with terminal procurement mainly for rigid demand and a strong wait - and - see sentiment [1]. 3.1.2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: The LME inventory dropped to 28,969 tons on December 03, a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%, indicating short - term supply tightness. The arrival of imported copper decreased, and Nord Co., Ltd.'s copper foil production capacity expansion plan may increase long - term supply. The price increase of copper - clad laminates showed rising raw material cost pressure [2]. - **需求端**: The demand in the automotive field was strong. Nord Co., Ltd. received an order for 373,000 tons of copper foil from Zhongchuang Xinhang on December 03. However, high copper prices inhibited downstream procurement. The transaction in the recycled copper rod market was light, the refined - scrap price difference widened to RMB 4,182.23 per ton, and terminal cable enterprises had a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - **库存端**: The SMM copper inventory in the country's major regions decreased by 14,500 tons month - on - month to 159,000 tons on December 01 due to reduced arrivals and good outbound shipments. The SHFE inventory slightly increased to 162,150 tons, and a slight inventory build - up is expected in the future [3]. 3.1.3. Price Trend Judgment The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the price range of RMB 88,000 - 90,000 per ton for SHFE and USD 11,000 - 11,300 per ton for LME [3]. 3.2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price and inventory data for multiple indicators on December 03, December 02, and November 27, 2025, including spot prices, premiums, LME (0 - 3) premiums, SHFE and LME prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, along with their changes and change rates [5]. 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On December 03, Nord Co., Ltd.'s wholly - owned subsidiary Baojiada signed a copper foil supply agreement with Zhongchuang Xinhang from 2026 - 2028, with a total supply of 373,000 tons over three years, with an estimated output value of nearly RMB 40 billion. Nord has planned to expand its global total production capacity to 300,000 tons per year by 2030 [6]. - On December 02, although the copper price rose, the price of recycled copper raw materials lacked upward momentum, resulting in a continuous widening of the refined - scrap price difference. As of December 01, the refined - scrap price difference had widened to RMB 4,182.23 per ton, but the market transaction was still light [6]. - On December 02, Jiantao, a copper - clad laminate giant, issued a price increase letter, raising the prices of its full - range of copper - clad laminate products by 5% - 10% starting from that day, mainly due to increased raw material cost pressure [6]. - On December 01, the SMM copper inventory in the country's major regions decreased by 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons. It is expected that the weekly copper inventory will slightly increase in the future [7]. - On December 01, SolGold rejected a preliminary conditional acquisition offer from Jiangxi Copper Group Co., Ltd. [7]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [8][10][12].