纯苯&苯乙烯日报 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 8 月 4 日 星期一 OPEC 增产大超预期，拖累苯乙烯价格下行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：8 月 1 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 7296/吨，基差 54（+11 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.54%，报 6260 元/吨。 成本：8 月 1 日布油主力合约收盘 69.3 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主 力合约收盘 72.5 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6075 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.7 万吨（+1.2 万吨），环比累库 5.9%，江 苏港口库存 16.4 万吨（+1.3 万吨），环比累库 8.8%，苯乙烯整体累库。 纯苯港口库存 17.0 万吨（-0.1 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 36.1 万吨（+0.0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.9%（+0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 54.3%（-1.0%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.9%（-0.9%） ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - **价差情况**: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **利润情况**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - **库存与到港量**: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].

成本压制与港口累库隐现，乙二醇延续震荡格局 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力期货价格从4492元/吨下跌至4478元/吨，跌 幅0.31%，日内波动区间为4464-4543元/吨，显示价格上行遇阻。华东现货 价格同步回落15元/吨至4515元/吨，基差从28元/吨扩张至42元/吨，现货 贴水收窄，表明短期现货支撑力度略有增强但整体仍偏弱。远月价差结构 方面，1-5价差小幅反弹1元/吨至-16元/吨，5-9价差扩大2元/吨至44元/ 吨，近月合约承压明显。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量减少6409手至252714手，持仓连续下滑反映 资金观望情绪升温。但成交环比增长13.06%至15.47万手，显示日内短线交 易活跃度提升，价格下跌过程中存在多空博弈。 供给端：乙二醇各工艺开工率维持稳定，油制、煤制、甲醇制开工率分别 持平于63.94%、61.51%、62.4%，整体供给端暂无明显边际变化。但石脑油 制、乙烯制及煤制工艺利润仍处深度亏损区间，其中煤制利润-170元/吨维 持低位，成本端压制持续制约供应弹性。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷保持89.42%的高位，江浙织机负荷63.43%同样持 平，终端订单季节性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The production decline caused by previous device maintenance has gradually recovered, and the supply side is steadily increasing. Except for styrene, other downstream products have poor profit transmission, and the terminal's willingness to start work is insufficient, resulting in limited demand. The high port inventory and the "anti - involution" policy expectation make the market more volatile with the bulk sentiment, and its own driving force is weak [4]. - **Styrene**: Domestic styrene devices maintain high - load operation, and short - term production may remain high. Although some downstream devices are gradually recovering, terminal orders have not significantly increased, and inventory overstocking still exists. The high social inventory and the pressure on the cost side due to oil price fluctuations and the loose supply - demand of pure benzene lead to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the chain reaction brought by policies and crude oil trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On July 30, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.18% at 7,387 yuan/ton, with a basis of 28 (+47 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.72% at 6,269 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cost**: On July 30, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at $69.2/barrel (+$2.5/barrel), the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at $72.5/barrel (+$2.5/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,085 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of styrene sample factories was 20.5 tons (-0.3 tons), a month - on - month de - stocking of 1.5%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 15.1 tons (+1.2 tons), a month - on - month stocking of 8.8%, with overall stocking [3]. - **Supply**: The styrene maintenance devices have returned, and the overall supply is stable. Currently, the weekly output of styrene remains at 36.1 tons (+0.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.8% (+0.5%) [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S have different changes. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 55.2% (+2.0%), ABS is 66.8% (+0.9%), and PS is 51.6% (+1.0%), with the overall start - up rate improving [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene Price**: From July 28 to 29, the main continuous futures price of styrene increased by 0.22%, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 258.33% [6]. - **Pure Benzene Price**: From July 28 to 29, the main continuous futures price of pure benzene increased by 0.72%, the price in East China increased by 1.0%, and the prices of South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [6]. - **Upstream Price**: From July 28 to 29, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.35%, WTI crude oil increased by 2.11%, and the price of naphtha increased by 0.03% [6]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From July 18 to 25, the production of styrene in China increased by 0.69% to 36.1 tons, and the production of pure benzene decreased by 2.39% to 42.5 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: From July 18 to 25, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 8.81% to 15.1 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.46% to 20.5 tons, and the national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 4.27% to 17.1 tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Downstream of Pure Benzene**: From July 18 to 25, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and caprolactam changed slightly, phenol decreased by 4.04%, and aniline increased by 0.77% [8]. - **Downstream of Styrene**: From July 18 to 25, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS all increased, by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 1.0% respectively [8]. 3.3 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [9]. - The US Treasury Department intensified its "maximum pressure" action against Iran, targeting the shipping network of the Shamkhani family. US officials said the new sanctions would make it "more difficult" for Iran to sell oil but would not cause a continuous disruption to the global oil market [9]. - The Federal Reserve kept its policy unchanged, and Powell avoided giving guidance on a September interest - rate cut [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of pure benzene and styrene, the cost comparison between imported and domestic pure benzene for styrene, the inventory trends of styrene and pure benzene at ports and factories, and the capacity utilization rates of downstream products such as ABS, EPS, phenol, aniline, and caprolactam [10][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX - PTA supply tightness supports the market, but the differentiated inventory structure restricts the increase [1] - The short - term industrial chain enters an oscillatory adjustment period, and the long - and short - term factors in the polyester market may restrict the upward space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On July 29, the PX main contract closed at 6942.0 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4838.0 yuan/ton, up 0.54%, with a basis of 2.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 30, WTI closed at 69.25 US dollars/barrel. The PX supply is under short - term tightening pressure, and PTA supply faces dual pressures of high operating rate and plant restart. Downstream polyester demand shows a marginal weakening risk, and PTA continues a slight destocking trend but the pressure remains [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On July 29, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6500.0 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The spot price in the East China market was 6605.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 105.0 yuan/ton [4] - The cost - side support of polyester is loosening, terminal procurement power is weakening, and the inventory is significantly differentiated. The short - term industrial chain is expected to enter an oscillatory adjustment period [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 30, compared with July 29, the prices of PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot, and some other products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts also had corresponding changes [5] - The processing spreads of various products in the industrial chain and the trading volume of the Light Textile City also showed specific data changes [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On July 30, a Fed governor was absent from the interest - rate meeting, and the number of voting members temporarily decreased to 11. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would eventually need to continue cutting interest rates but was not ready to do so this week [7] - On July 29, Trump thought the Fed must cut interest rates this week [7] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 446.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%, including 357.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 87.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to the PX, PTA, and polyester industrial chains, including futures prices, basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, etc [9][11][13] 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - The analysis is carried out from the supply, demand, and inventory sides. The supply side considers the device start - up rate and device changes of PX and PTA; the demand side focuses on the polyester operating rate and the trading volume of the Light Textile City; the inventory side pays attention to the PTA factory inventory [34][35][36] - Overall, PX may be supported by crude oil, and PTA may be supported by cost and demand. If the inventory is low, the price may rise [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit compared with the previous trading day. The basis weakened to - 9,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price discount to the futures further widened [2] - The position of the main contract increased from 362,054 lots on July 18 to 491,088 lots on July 25, an increase of 35.6%. The market divergence intensified, with both short - hedging and long - speculation forces entering the market. The trading volume decreased from 1.77 million lots to 1.2 million lots week - on - week, and the trading activity declined marginally [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, but the compliance issue of lithium mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi triggered expectations of supply tightening. If the mining right review is not completed on time, production capacity may be limited. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 62.2%. Coupled with the maintenance and shutdown of some production lines of enterprises such as Jiangte Motor and Zangge Mining, short - term supply - side disturbances were strengthened [3] - **Demand side**: The prices of cathode materials continued the slow upward trend. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 240 yuan to 33,495 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.47% to 53,250 yuan/ton. The retail of new energy vehicles decreased by 12% month - on - month in July, and the terminal demand showed seasonal weakness. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate battery cells were basically flat, and downstream replenishment was still mainly based on rigid demand, lacking explosive drivers [3] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate has increased for four consecutive weeks to 143,170 physical tons, and the warehouse receipt pressure has further accumulated, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39% [3] c. Market Summary - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual impact of the Jiangxi mining right review progress on supply and the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From July 25 to July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton to 73,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.19%. The basis increased from - 9,920 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.29%. The position of the main contract decreased from 491,088 lots to 378,472 lots, a decrease of 22.93%. The trading volume decreased from 1,203,424 lots to 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 16.46%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,600 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33%. The market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 745 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased from 850 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 53,000 yuan/ton to 53,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 116,595 yuan/ton to 116,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,255 yuan/ton to 33,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% [6] - From July 18 to July 25, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased from 62.70% to 62.20%, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased from 142,620 physical tons to 143,170 physical tons, an increase of 0.39%. The prices of various types of battery cells remained basically unchanged [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 28, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,737 yuan/ton, a increase of 991 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 - 75,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,900 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 - 72,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,700 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. At the beginning of this week, the lithium carbonate futures market dropped sharply, and the main contract hit the daily limit. This price fluctuation was mainly affected by two factors: on the one hand, it was driven by the linkage effect of the general decline in the prices of other commodities; on the other hand, the news of a mine in Jiangxi continued to disturb the market sentiment. After the futures price dropped significantly, the downstream procurement demand was significantly released, the market inquiry activity increased significantly, and the increase in trading volume pushed the spot price center to move up steadily [7] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 23, from July 1 - 20, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 54.9%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. From July 1 - 20, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [8] c. Industry News - On July 24, large - scale orders were finalized, large - scale funds were quickly deployed, investment and financing and IPOs were booming, and concept stocks set off a daily limit wave. In 2025, the trillion - level humanoid robot market exploded, and various capitals poured into the humanoid robot track [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise this week. On the supply side, the resources of cobalt intermediates were relatively concentrated, and mining enterprises still suspended quotations. After the customs data were released on the weekend, the import volume of cobalt intermediates in China in June dropped significantly, further strengthening the market's expectation of raw material shortage. Traders continued to raise their quotations and reported that there were a small number of transactions of mainstream brands at around 12.5 - 12.6 US dollars per pound. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories reported that the current cost inversion was too serious. If they could not purchase low - cost cobalt intermediates, they would choose to purchase other cobalt raw materials for substitution or choose to reduce production or even stop production. Overall, affected by the extension policy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China's cobalt intermediates will still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has upward momentum, but it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of downstream demand by the increase in raw material prices [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review of the lithium - ion battery graphite market, the integration of anode enterprises was accelerating, and the price of the graphitization market was in a stalemate [11]

PX供应趋紧支撑走强，关注PTA加工费表现 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 07月28日，PX 主力合约收0.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.52%，基差为0.0 元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4936.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为0.0元/ 吨。 供给端：PX装置虽维持较高开工率，但盛虹石化新装置投产延后叠加亚洲 部分装置临时检修，可能导致三季度供应增量不及预期。PTA大厂负荷提升 至76.3%，但恒力惠州新产能释放延后，且福海创450万吨装置计划8月检 修，供应压力短期有所缓解。 需求端：聚酯开工率维持89.5%高位，但轻纺城日均成交回落至1000万米以 下，终端订单季节性转弱迹象显现。随着海外圣诞订单前置效应减弱，织 造环节坯布库存累积至40天高位，或倒逼聚酯环节降负，PTA需求边际转弱 压力加剧。 库存端：PTA工厂库存维持5天历史低位，但社会流通库存已累积至240万 吨，显性库存总量同比增加12%。考虑到主流 ...

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 星期二 成本：7 月 28 日布油主力合约收盘 65.2 桶（-0.9 美元/桶），WTI 原油 主力合约收盘 68.4 桶（-0.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6035 元/吨（-80 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 20.5 万吨（-0.3 万吨），环比去库 1.5%，江 苏港口库存 15.1 万吨（+1.2 万吨），环比累库 8.8%，苯乙烯整体累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 36.1 万吨（+0.2 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.8%（+0.5%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.2%（+2.0%）， ABS 产能利用率 66.8%（+0.9%），PS 产能利用率 51.6%（+1.0%），开工率整体 回暖。 贸易协议利好刺激原油上行，SM&BZ 暂未跟涨 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn ww ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases and the structural shift of Russian crude oil supply to Asia cap the upside of oil prices, while demand is suppressed by factors like the decline in Indian imports and the Fed's tightening expectations. The domestic SC crude oil performs weaker than the international market due to the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and the expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - As of July 28, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price closed at 505.9 yuan per barrel, down 7.0 yuan (-1.36%) from the previous Friday (July 25). In contrast, WTI and Brent rose by $1.91 (+2.94%) and $2.0 (+2.96%) respectively. The spread between domestic and international oil prices narrowed significantly, and the near - month premium of SC contracts widened to 30.7 yuan per barrel, indicating strengthened expectations of spot tightness [1]. - Intensified capital games in the industrial chain. The SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels to 5.249 million barrels on July 28, hitting a recent high, suggesting rising domestic spot delivery pressure. The warehouse receipts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, indicating that the refinery's finished product supply did not accumulate in tandem with raw material inventories [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: On July 28, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the production plan. US President Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia raised concerns about restricted Russian energy exports [3]. - Demand: India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons (the lowest since February), reflecting that high oil prices are suppressing emerging market demand. The expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments may further dampen domestic purchasing willingness [4]. - Inventory: The sharp increase in domestic SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts indicates significant spot market selling pressure. The accumulation of bonded delivery warehouse inventory may be related to the import arrival rhythm. The positive impact of US commercial crude oil inventory reduction is not clear, and the expected OPEC+ production increase may delay the arrival of the inventory inflection point [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors and demand - side constraints will cap the upside of oil prices. The domestic SC performs weaker than the international market. The widening Brent - WTI spread reflects the resilience of non - US market demand. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations and the OPEC+ production decision for September [6][7]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.36%, WTI rose by 2.94%, and Brent rose by 2.96%. Spot prices of some crude oils remained stable or changed slightly. The spreads between different crude oils also changed, such as the narrowing of SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads and the widening of Brent - WTI spread [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.75%, Cushing inventory increased by 2.13%, and the US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly. The API inventory decreased by 0.13%. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.70%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 0.52% [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased by 1.58%, LU decreased by 1.88%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 1.14%. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and spreads of fuel oil also showed different degrees of change. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On July 28, OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged member countries to comply with oil quotas. The price of Russia's Urals crude oil strengthened, and its discount to Brent narrowed to the lowest level since 2022. India's economic report expected global crude oil prices to remain low after OPEC's production increase exceeded expectations, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [10][11]. b. Demand - Mexico's state - owned oil company PEMEX's crude oil processing volume in the second quarter increased by 11% year - on - year. The refined oil price adjustment window will open on July 29. Russian Airlines canceled dozens of flights due to system problems [12]. c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. d. Market Information - The market is cautious, and oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. The international crude oil price in this cycle fluctuated, and the retail price of refined oil is expected to be suspended. The market is trading on demand, and prices in the shipping fuel market are generally stable [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may maintain a fluctuating and relatively strong pattern in the short term, but its upward space is limited in the medium term. Cost - side support has marginally improved, and port inventory has been continuously decreasing, providing upward momentum for prices. However, downstream polyester and loom loads remain stable, lacking demand growth, and the increase in arrival volume may gradually turn into inventory pressure. If the price fluctuations of crude oil and coal intensify, the cost center of ethylene glycol may shift down again, and there is a risk of the price falling after a spike [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Futures Market Data Changes - The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract has risen for three consecutive days, from 4,453 yuan/ton to 4,543 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2%. The spot price in East China remained stable at 4,595 yuan/ton, causing the basis to narrow from 64 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, and the discount range decreased, reflecting a stronger sentiment in the futures market. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded from - 39 yuan/ton to - 23 yuan/ton, and the pressure on the far - month contract was slightly relieved [1] - The trading volume of the main contract increased to 316,600 lots, reaching a recent high, indicating increased market activity and a stronger willingness of long - position funds to enter the market [1] Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.96%, and the operating rates of coal - based and oil - based plants were maintained at 61.51% and 63.94% respectively, with no obvious increase in supply. The loss of naphtha - based production profit narrowed slightly to - 79.67 US dollars/ton, and the coal - based production profit remained at - 110 yuan/ton. Cost - side pressure still existed but did not worsen further [2] - Demand: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious change, and downstream replenishment was mainly for rigid demand [2] - Inventory: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 475,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 9,000 tons to 148,000 tons, with short - term destocking accelerating. However, the arrival volume increased by 27,000 tons month - on - month to 159,000 tons, and the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure may gradually appear [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 79 yuan/ton to 4,464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74%. The trading volume decreased by 75,533 lots to 241,057 lots, a decrease of 23.86%. The open interest decreased by 21,692 lots to 258,742 lots, a decrease of 7.74% [5] - Spot: The spot price in the East China market decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 4,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% [5] - Spreads: The MEG basis increased by 79 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, an increase of 213.51%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 13 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.52%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 43 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.76%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500.00% [5] - Profits: The naphtha - based production profit decreased by 9 US dollars/ton to - 92 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.82%. The ethylene - based production profit remained unchanged at - 586 yuan/ton. The methanol - based production profit increased by 177 yuan/ton to - 1,096 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.88%. The coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 110 yuan/ton [5] - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained unchanged [5] - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 19,000 tons to 475,000 tons, a decrease of 3.85%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 9,000 tons to 148,000 tons, a decrease of 5.73%. The arrival volume increased by 27,000 tons to 159,000 tons, an increase of 20.45% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 28, in the morning, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar market moved down, with near - month shipments negotiated in the range of 526 - 530 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the center of the East China US - dollar market fluctuated narrowly, with near - month shipments negotiated in the range of 527 - 530 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On July 28, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi was raised, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. There was still pressure on spot transactions, but the price of Shaanxi supplies was raised due to the continuous increase in coal prices [6] - On July 28, the mainstream market performed poorly, and the price in the South China market followed the decline. Near the end of the month, the enthusiasm of downstream factories to purchase goods was limited, and no transactions were heard in the market, with the current price around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On July 28, the oil price fell over the weekend, and the market recovered in the morning, but the impact of the cost side was limited. The ethylene glycol market opened lower. Affected by the macro - environment, commodities collectively corrected, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4,510 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]