Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with a price range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory accumulation and falling import costs exert downward pressure, while weak demand in the home appliance sector and the trend of aluminum replacing copper dampen buying interest. However, positive macro sentiment, such as policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and geopolitical supply - chain risks, supports prices [3][47][48] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 23, 2025, the SHFE main contract price slightly dropped to 93,890 yuan/ton, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day. The basis generally weakened, with the discount on premium copper widening to - 180 yuan/ton, flat copper to - 230 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper to - 285 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) premium rose to 6.58 US dollars/ton on December 22 [1][41] - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,699 lots to 344,790 lots on December 22, 2025. LME inventory increased to 49,543 tons on December 23, SHFE inventory to 158,575 tons, and COMEX inventory also rose, indicating increased supply pressure [1][42] 2. Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The supply side is relatively loose. On December 23, 2025, the 2026 CIF import copper concentrate benchmark price dropped to 85 US dollars/ton, potentially reducing smelting costs. A subsidiary's acquisition of the Raura zinc polymetallic mine in Peru on December 19, 2025, increases medium - to - long - term supply potential. Global projects like the Marathon copper mine are progressing, but with limited short - term impact. LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories all increased, with a combined weekly increase of about 1.5% [2][43] - **Demand Side**: The demand side is under significant pressure. In November 2025, the production and sales of household air conditioners declined significantly year - on - year (domestic sales - 39.8%, exports - 25.6%) due to the expiration of policy incentives and high - inventory clearance. The discussion of aluminum replacing copper due to soaring copper prices may suppress copper consumption in the air - conditioning field. In refined copper rod exports, processing with imported materials dominates, but general - trade exports decreased by 81.92% year - on - year, showing uneven external demand [2][44] - **Inventory Side**: Inventories are generally accumulating. LME inventory increased to 49,543 tons, SHFE inventory to 158,575 tons, and COMEX inventory also rose. The weakening of premiums and discounts and the increase in inventory indicate a continued pattern of loose supply and demand [2][46] 3. Price Trend Judgment - Copper futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The accumulation of supply - side inventory and the decrease in import costs provide downward pressure, while weak demand in the home appliance sector and the trend of aluminum replacing copper dampen buying interest. However, positive macro sentiment, such as policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and geopolitical supply - chain risks, supports prices. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [3][47][48]

1. Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, while the demand side is weak, and the market is in a game between cost support and weak demand [3][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 23, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 120,360 yuan/ton, up 5,980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a 5.23% increase. The basis weakened from - 13,580 yuan/ton to - 17,560 yuan/ton, a 29.31% decrease [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract slightly shrank from 671,889 lots to 671,573 lots, a 0.05% decrease. The trading volume dropped from 1,007,441 lots to 731,003 lots, a 27.44% decrease [1] 3.1.2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The raw material cost support increased. The market price of spodumene concentrate rose from 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22 to 11,145 yuan/ton on December 23, and that of lepidolite concentrate from 5,565 yuan/ton to 5,750 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants mainly focused on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%, indicating a tight overall supply without significant expansion [2] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. However, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year. The demand side was overall weak, and downstream material plants were cautious about high prices, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and long - term contract increases. The advancement of solid - state battery technology may affect medium - to - long - term demand expectations [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12 to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, reflecting a continued inventory reduction trend [2] 3.2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, power - type ternary material, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all increased. The basis weakened, and the main contract position slightly shrank, while the trading volume significantly decreased. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable. From December 12 to December 19, the lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. Some cell prices increased slightly, while others remained stable [5] 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1. Spot Market Quotation - On December 22, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price all increased. The lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillating pattern, mainly driven by capital sentiment. Downstream cathode material plants were cautious about high prices, and actual market transactions were limited. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing [6] 3.3.2. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the Passenger Car Association data on December 17, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year but increased by 1% month - on - month, and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year and 14% month - on - month [7] 3.3.3. Industry News - On December 16, it was reported that all - solid - state batteries are expected to be put into small - scale production and vehicle installation from 2026 - 2027, with different energy density targets in different periods. On December 11, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its lithium iron phosphate project to produce high - density lithium iron phosphate products [8][9] 3.4. Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising lithium ore raw material costs, and the stable capacity utilization rate and scarce spot transactions limit the downward price space. Although new energy vehicle sales have declined year - on - year and downstream purchases are cautious, the slight inventory decrease and the slight increase in cathode material prices provide basic support. However, the significant shrinkage in trading volume and the slight decrease in positions indicate that capital sentiment is dominant, and the lack of strong short - term demand growth may suppress further price increases [3]

有色贵金属市场热度持续，铜价持续上行试探新高 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：SHFE主力合约价格12月22日收于94040元/吨，涨幅 1.25%，延续上涨趋势；LME0-3基差由12月16日的贴水13.89美元/吨转为12 月19日的升水4.73美元/吨，基差显著走强。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓量在2025年12月19日减少2759手至342091手，成交 量未直接提供，但价格波动显示市场活跃度较高，成交可能收缩。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：2025年11月铜废料进口环比增长5.87%至20.81万吨，但废铜锭进 口环比减少18%，阳极铜进口环比增加5.60%至5.83万吨；哈萨克斯坦矿业 公司2026年铜精矿招标可能增加未来供应；国务院安委办打击盗采矿产资 源政策可能收紧国内矿山供应。 需求端 ：铜箔进口环比增加9.23%至6653.52吨，出口环比增加11.47%至 5994.15吨，铜漆包线出口同比增长22.62%，显示消费电子和汽车领域需求 强劲；但铜锌合金出口同比下滑76.13%，覆铜板出口同比减少28.03%，建 筑领域需求偏弱。 库存端 ：LME库存从2 ...

Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The main contract price of carbonate lithium increased from 111,400 yuan/ton on December 19, 2025, to 114,380 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025, with a 2.68% increase, indicating a slight price increase. The basis weakened from -11,800 yuan/ton to -13,580 yuan/ton, with a 15.08% decline [1][40]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest slightly increased from 668,829 lots to 671,889 lots, with a 0.46% increase, showing an expansion in open interest. The trading volume increased from 928,963 lots to 1,007,441 lots, with an 8.45% increase, indicating an expansion in trading volume [1][40]. *** Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 10,800 yuan/ton on December 19, 2025, to 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025, with a 2.08% increase, indicating rising raw material costs. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained flat. The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained stable at 83.52%. In terms of imports, the import volume of spodumene in November 2025 increased by 12% month-on-month to 729,000 physical tons, mainly from a 44% increase in Australia, but decreased from other sources. This implies that the supply side may face structural tightness, but overall supply has increased [2][41]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products such as power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, indicating stable demand. The new energy vehicle sales data (from December 1 - 14) decreased slightly year-on-year but increased month-on-month. The progress of solid-state batteries may boost future demand expectations. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to meet the demand for high-compaction lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high-end products. The cell prices increased slightly or remained flat, reflecting stable demand [2][41]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of carbonate lithium decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12, 2025, to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, 2025, with a 0.94% decline, showing a slight decrease in inventory. The warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but from the inventory trend, the supply is slightly tight [2][41]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures price may continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, and the demand side is stable. However, caution should be exercised regarding the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers [3][46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with high inventory, weak demand, and limited external support [4] - Styrene will also maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, facing issues such as slow inventory reduction, increased supply, and weak demand in the off - season [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On December 22, the styrene main contract rose 2.16% to 6,540 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract rose 1.21% to 5,459 yuan/ton. Brent crude closed at $56.5/barrel (+$0.5/barrel), WTI at $60.5/barrel (+$0.6/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was quoted at 5,315 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene's East China port and factory inventories decreased, but the de - stocking slope slowed. Pure benzene's East China port inventory remained at a high level with no obvious de - stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene's supply marginally increased with a 0.84 - percentage - point rise in the national operating rate. Pure benzene's overall supply was high but marginally weakened, with a 0.17 - percentage - point drop in the domestic operating rate and a 3.05 - percentage - point rise in the hydro - benzene operating rate [2] - **Demand**: Styrene's downstream entered the off - season, with the operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS falling. Non - styrene downstream's CPL, phenol, and aniline operating rates also declined [3] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: High inventory persists, overseas support weakens, supply slightly reduces, and demand is weak. It will be range - bound in the short term [4] - **Styrene**: Inventory de - stocking slows, supply increases, demand is in the off - season, and market sentiment is cautious. It will also be range - bound in the short term [4] 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures rose 2.16%, and spot fell 1.19%. Pure benzene futures rose 1.21%, and East China spot rose 0.66%. Brent crude rose 0.93%, and WTI rose 1.09%. Naphtha fell 0.04% [6] - **Output and Inventory**: China's styrene output increased 2.32%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.70%. Styrene's port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene's port inventory increased 36.59% [7] - **Operating Rate**: Styrene's downstream EPS and PS operating rates increased, while ABS decreased. Pure benzene's downstream caprolactam operating rate decreased, while phenol and aniline were relatively stable [8] 3. Industry News - European Central Bank President Lagarde said inflation outlook uncertainty is higher than usual [9] - US November core CPI year - on - year growth was 2.6%, the lowest since 2021 [9] - US initial jobless claims last week were 224,000, lower than expected [9] - Fed's Goolsbee said there is room to cut interest rates if inflation returns to 2% [9] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on prices, output, inventory, and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [12][21]

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis Main Contracts and Basis On December 19, 2025, the price of the SC main contract slightly declined to 426.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day, showing a downward trend during the session (falling from a high of 436.5 yuan). The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 55.9 dollars per barrel and 59.71 dollars per barrel, respectively, with no change. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.88 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 30.71%); the SC - WTI spread also weakened to 4.69 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 7.68%); the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.81 dollars per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 weakened to -3.9 yuan per barrel, deepening by 0.6 yuan (a decline of 18.18%), indicating increased pressure on near - month contracts [1]. Position and Trading Volume As of the week ending December 16, 2025, ICE Brent crude oil speculators' net long positions decreased by 74,876 lots to 32,940 lots, and ICE diesel net long positions decreased by 19,818 lots to 38,760 lots, indicating that market sentiment has turned cautious, and the outflow of speculative funds may reflect concerns about geopolitical risks. No specific trading volume data was provided [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis Supply Side On December 20, the Iraqi National Oil Company stated that the oil export agreement between Baghdad and Erbil was progressing smoothly, suggesting stable supply from OPEC+ members. On the same day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a Caspian Sea oil and gas drilling platform of Russia's Lukoil, intensifying geopolitical risks and potentially disrupting exports in the Caspian region. The US intercepted an oil tanker related to Venezuelan crude oil transportation last weekend and is still tracking another similar tanker, indicating a continuous tightening of policy enforcement. On December 19, Japan and Kazakhstan signed an energy cooperation agreement, which may increase Central Asian supply in the medium - to - long term. The exploration director of Mexico's state - owned oil company is expected to resign, bringing short - term uncertainties [3]. Demand Side The Indonesian Energy Minister announced the launch of the B50 biodiesel road test, planning to implement it in the second half of 2026, which may boost biodiesel demand in the long term but has limited short - term impact. There is no direct information on refined oil profits and refinery equipment. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has not been updated, and overall, the demand side lacks strong drivers [3]. Inventory Side As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424.417 million barrels, with analysts expecting a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma decreased by 742,000 barrels to 20.86 million barrels. US gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels to 225.627 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 2.1 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.712 million barrels to 118.5 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 1.2 million barrels [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may enter a bottom - oscillation range, but geopolitical factors support prices to strengthen within the range. On the supply side, geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the stable Iraqi export agreement and the resumption of Venezuelan exports alleviate concerns about supply disruptions; OPEC+'s idle capacity and the limited impact of sanctions. On the demand side, the Indonesian B50 biodiesel test provides long - term benefits, but short - term refined oil demand lacks catalysts, and the delayed release of Chinese demand data increases uncertainties. Overall, geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions offset weak demand, and close attention should be paid to the development of international geopolitical situations [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Supply - side cost support and supply concerns, stable high - level demand for new energy vehicles, and continuous inventory decline support the price, while stable capacity utilization and slowing demand growth may limit the upside space [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis** - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 19, 2025, the main contract price of lithium carbonate was reported at 111,400 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5,240 yuan/ton or 4.94% from the previous day. The basis was - 11,800 yuan/ton, weakening by 4,440 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased slightly to 668,829 lots on December 19, 2025, a decrease of 3,882 lots or 0.58% from the previous day. The trading volume also contracted to 928,963 lots, a decrease of 84,953 lots or 8.38% from the previous day [1]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: On December 19, 2025, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose to 10,800 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate rose to 5,565 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 83.52%. The public notice of the Jianxiawo lithium mine project on December 19, 2025, caused supply concerns, but the actual impact was limited. New projects were under construction with little short - term production pressure [2]. - **Demand Side**: As of December 17, 2025, the demand for new energy vehicles remained high but the growth rate slowed. From December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% month - on - month, and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year and 14% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 62.3%. The prices of downstream battery materials were stable with a slight increase, and the demand for fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries supported demand resilience [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, 2025, a decrease of 1,044 tons or 0.94% from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend but at a slower pace. Although warehouse receipt data was not directly updated, the inventory decline reflected a tight supply - demand balance [2]. Price Trend Judgment - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Supply - side cost support and supply concerns, stable high - level demand for new energy vehicles, and continuous inventory decline support the price, while stable capacity utilization and slowing demand growth may limit the upside space [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Multiple product prices showed different trends on December 19, 2025, compared with December 18, 2025, or December 12, 2025, including increases in the main contract price of lithium carbonate, lithium ore prices, and some battery product prices, and decreases in the basis and the price of hexafluorophosphate [5]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On December 19, 2025, SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures price fluctuated within a range, and downstream material factories were cautious, with few actual transactions [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on December 17, 2025, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail and wholesale sales showed year - on - year decreases but high penetration rates [7]. - **Industry News**: On December 11, 2025, the cobalt intermediate product market was strong with limited supply. Also, companies were upgrading projects to produce high - density lithium iron phosphate products to meet market demand [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Pure benzene is in a pattern of high inventory and weak demand in the short term, and its price is mainly in a weak oscillation [3] - Styrene shows a pattern of increasing supply, weakening demand, and slowing inventory reduction, and its short - term price will maintain a weak oscillation [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Aspects - **Price**: On December 19, the styrene main contract closed up 0.27% at 6,402 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.24% at 5,394 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On December 19, Brent crude oil closed at $56.0 per barrel (+$0.2 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $59.8 per barrel (+$0.1 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,280 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: For styrene, the inventory in East China ports was 13.47 tons (-1.21 tons), and the factory inventory was 17.10 tons (-0.76 tons). For pure benzene, the inventory in East China ports was 26.00 tons (+0.00 tons) [2] - **Supply**: The supply of styrene increased marginally, with the national styrene factory operating rate at 69.13% (+0.84 percentage points). For pure benzene, the domestic operating rate was 74.94% (-0.17 percentage points), and the hydro - benzene operating rate was 55.99% (+3.05 percentage points) [2] - **Demand**: The downstream of styrene entered the off - season, with the operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS dropping to 51.81%, 54.50%, and 70.10% respectively. For non - styrene downstream, the operating rates of CPL, phenol, and aniline declined significantly [3] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: The peak of domestic arrivals has ended, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. Overseas, the gasoline cracking spread is weakening, and the demand side is weak. Overall, the price is in a weak oscillation [3] - **Styrene**: The inventory is still decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The supply pressure is emerging, and the demand is weakening. The price is in a weak oscillation [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On December 19, the styrene futures main contract rose 0.27% to 6,402 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 0.59% to 6,716 yuan/ton. The pure benzene futures main contract rose 0.24% to 5,394 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price rose 0.09% to 5,280 yuan/ton [6] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, styrene production in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 7.49% to 17.6 tons. Pure benzene port inventory in the whole country increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [7] (3) Operating Rate - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the operating rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56 percentage points to 68.9%, and that of caprolactam decreased by 7.53 percentage points to 79.2%. For styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS increased by 1.61 percentage points to 56.4%, that of ABS decreased by 2.90 percentage points to 68.3%, and that of PS increased by 1.40 percentage points to 59.0% [8] 3. Industry News - The ECB President Lagarde said the uncertainty of inflation outlook is higher than usual [9] - The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since 2021 [9] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 224,000, lower than market expectations [9] - Fed's Goolsbee said there is a significant room for interest rate cuts as long as inflation is clearly returning to the 2% target [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [14][19][23][25][30]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, fluctuating between 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. The supply side shows an increase in production but a decrease in processing fees, indicating potential tightness; the demand side is weak, and year - end capital pressure restricts purchases; macro - sentiment is cautious with a slight increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike [3][39] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE main contract price rose from 92,460 yuan/ton on December 18th to 92,880 yuan/ton on December 19th, a 0.45% increase. The premium of premium copper deepened from - 100 yuan/ton on December 18th to - 120 yuan/ton on December 19th, and the discounts of flat - copper and wet - copper also deepened, showing a weakening of the spot basis. The LME (0 - 3) discount was - 13.89 dollars/ton on December 18th [1][34] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased by 611 lots to 344,850 lots on December 18th. SMM information indicates that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, and downstream orders were weak, suggesting a possible contraction in trading volume [1][38] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: China's refined copper output in November was 1.236 million tons, a 11.9% year - on - year increase. However, the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 0 dollars/ton, lower than 21.25 dollars/ton in 2025, indicating tightening mine supply. Western Mining obtained a new mining license, but the short - term impact is limited [2][38] - **Demand Side**: Overall demand was weak. China's copper product output in November was 2.226 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. SMM expects the copper rod output in December to decline by 45,000 tons to 1 million tons, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to decline. Downstream orders only maintained rigid demand, and the demand in the automotive and construction sectors was flat [2][39] - **Inventory Side**: LME copper inventory increased from 44,650 tons on December 18th to 45,739 tons on December 19th, a 2.44% increase. SHFE inventory decreased from 164,275 tons to 160,400 tons, a 2.36% decrease. COMEX inventory increased. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 1.89% month - on - month, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.31%, showing a differentiated inventory structure [2][39] Price Trend Judgment - The report predicts that copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply side shows an increase in production but a decrease in processing fees, indicating potential tightness; the demand side is weak, and year - end capital pressure restricts purchases; macro - sentiment is cautious with a slight increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The copper futures price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a price range of 90,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The expansion of new production capacity on the supply side increases supply pressure, the weak demand side restricts the upside space, and the macro - sentiment is cautious with a risk of correction [3][55]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 17, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 92,630 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the premium copper discount deepening to - 125 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the LME(0 - 3) discount also deepening to - 9.52 dollars/ton [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions slightly decreased by 435 lots to 350,621 lots on December 16. SHFE inventory increased to 166,600 tons, possibly reflecting increased position pressure [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side shows an expansion trend. On December 17, KMS electrolytic copper became an LME - registered brand, adding an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons, and Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru to increase regional production capacity. However, there is a local supply shortage, such as the tight supply of recycled brass in Ningbo [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side is weak. The transaction price of recycled copper rod orders in Hubei is lower than the quoted price, indicating insufficient actual demand. Although the commercial refrigeration compressor market slightly recovered in the third quarter, overall, affected by the global economic weakness, the support from the power, construction and other fields is limited [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Inventory shows obvious differentiation. LME inventory decreased by 1.98% to 44,877 tons on December 17, while SHFE inventory increased to 166,600 tons, and COMEX inventory also increased, leading to an increase in global inventory pressure [2]. Price Trend Judgment The copper futures price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks. The new production capacity and project expansion on the supply side increase supply pressure, the weak demand signs such as reduced orders on the demand side restrict the upside space, and the macro - sentiment is cautious with a risk of correction. The copper price is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price**: On December 17, the SMM:1 copper price was 92,300 yuan/ton, a 0.33% increase from the previous day. The SHFE price was 92,630 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous day. The discounts of premium copper, flat - water copper and wet - process copper all deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount also weakened [5]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 907 tons to 44,877 tons on December 17, a 1.98% decrease. SHFE inventory increased on December 16, and COMEX inventory also increased [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 17, the supply of recycled brass in Ningbo was tight, and the trading was mainly small orders for rigid demand [6]. - On December 17, KMS electrolytic copper produced by China Non - Ferrous Mining Group became an LME - registered brand, with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons [6]. - On December 17, Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in Peru [6]. - On December 16, Shandong Province released a plan for the high - quality development of the copper industry from 2025 - 2027, aiming to build four major copper industry clusters [7]. - On December 16, the environmental impact assessment of a 50,000 - ton anode copper project of Hubei Zeming Enterprise Investment Group Co., Ltd. was publicly announced for the first time [7]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position situation, LME copper net long position analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][10][12].