Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The pattern of long - short factors intertwined in the oil price may continue. Global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+'s production - increasing tendency will limit the upside of oil prices, while unexpected geopolitical risk escalations or significant macro - economic policy changes may support and rebound oil prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - OPEC+ approved an increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in daily oil production starting from October 2025 and plans to continue this production - increasing rhythm until September 2026, accelerating the release of a total capacity of 1.65 million barrels per day [3] - US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since February this year [20] Demand - side - In the second quarter of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global crude oil demand slowed down from 1.1% in the first quarter to 0.7%, mainly due to the continuous weakening of the global economy. The demand in the US, an important crude oil consumer, weakened significantly due to seasonal factors last week [3] Inventory - As of September 5, EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels [3][41] Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - Supply - demand looseness dominates the fundamentals in the second half of the year. There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil [55][56] Reasons for the Loose Supply - demand Situation - Non - OPEC supply has a rigid increase. From 2025 to 2026, non - OPEC production increased from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production only increased slightly by 0.7 million barrels per day. US shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production [60] - OPEC+ production cuts are ineffective. In September 2025, OPEC+ completely withdrew from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, but the increase in non - OPEC production completely offset its efforts [60] - OECD demand has stagnated. After August 2025, it has been continuously below 46.5 million barrels per day, and in January 2026, it suddenly dropped to 44.8 million barrels per day (-3.4% month - on - month) [60] - Non - OECD demand fluctuates violently. It reached a peak of 59.4 million barrels per day in December 2025, but suddenly dropped to 58.3 million barrels per day (-1.8%) in October 2026 [60] - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years. In 2025, there was positive inventory every month except December, and in 2026, there was only a short - term inventory draw in December. The cumulative surplus of crude oil exceeded 2.6 billion barrels [60] - There is storage capacity pressure. On January 2026, the single - day inventory accumulation reached 2.6 million barrels, a peak in the cycle, implying that storage costs will erode the oil price margin [60] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical and sanction factors. In August, Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments decreased, and Iran's high - sulfur exports also declined. China's low - sulfur fuel oil production in August was 1.06 million tons, a 4.6% increase from July, but the cumulative production from January to August was about 7.8 million tons, a decrease of about 19% compared with the same period last year [6] Demand - High - sulfur fuel oil demand lacks growth points as the power generation demand in the Middle East and other regions decreases seasonally after the end of the northern hemisphere summer, and the refinery feeding demand also declines with the weakening of gasoline consumption. Low - sulfur fuel oil demand shows some resilience, supported by the unexpected recovery of global shipping demand, but it also faces long - term competition from alternative energy sources [7] Inventory - In the week of September 10, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels to a two - week low of 26.528 million barrels. In the week of September 8, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory rebounded strongly by 28% to 7.095 million barrels. In the week of September 5, the fuel oil inventory in the ARA region decreased by 4.4% to 1 million tons, but its inventory level is still higher than the five - year average [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Pure benzene prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term, with limited upside potential due to unresolved supply - demand contradictions, despite short - term cost support from crude oil. In the medium to long term, the trend depends on crude oil movements and import volume realization [2]. - Styrene prices may experience short - term rebounds but face significant pressure overall. With increasing supply, weak demand, high inventories, and potential weakening of cost support, styrene is likely to trade in a range, and there is a risk of downward pressure from inventory liquidation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On September 10, the styrene main contract closed up 0.04% at 7065 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45 (+12 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.22% at 6019 yuan/ton [2]. - On September 10, Brent crude oil closed at $62.6 per barrel (+$0.4), and WTI crude oil closed at $66.4 per barrel (+$0.4). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene inventory was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a 9.8% increase from the previous period, showing a large inventory build - up. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), an 8.0% increase [2]. - In September, styrene plants will undergo maintenance, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2]. - The downstream 3S开工率 (capacity utilization rates) varied. EPS capacity utilization was 52.5% (-5.8%), ABS was 69.0% (-1.8%), and PS was 61.0% (+1.1%) [2]. 3.1.2. Views - Pure benzene: In the short term, it will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although there is short - term cost support from crude oil, demand is weak, and supply pressure in the future, especially from imports in October, cannot be ignored. In the medium to long term, it depends on crude oil trends and import volume realization [2]. - Styrene: Short - term price rebounds are limited. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and cost support may weaken. It will mainly trade in a range, and there is a risk of downward pressure from inventory liquidation [3]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On September 10, the styrene futures main contract increased 0.04% to 7065 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7394 yuan/ton. The basis increased 36.36% to 45 yuan/ton [5]. - The pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.22% to 6019 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price remained at 5910 yuan/ton. Other international prices also remained unchanged [5]. - The pure benzene internal - CFR spread decreased 1.29% to -372.0 yuan/ton, and the East China - Shandong spread remained unchanged at -40.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Brent crude oil increased 0.59% to $62.6 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased 0.56% to $66.4 per barrel, and naphtha remained at 7694 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From August 29 to September 5, Chinese styrene output increased 2.14% to 37.6 million tons, and pure benzene output increased 0.31% to 45.3 million tons [6]. - During the same period, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased 9.78% to 19.7 million tons, and domestic factory inventory increased 1.67% to 21.5 million tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased 7.97% to 14.9 million tons [6]. 3.2.3. Capacity Utilization Rates - From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased 1.67% to 79.7%, that of caprolactam increased 1.03% to 90.4%, that of phenol decreased 0.151% to 75.2%, and that of aniline increased 0.41% to 68.0% [7]. - Among styrene downstream products, EPS capacity utilization decreased 5.82% to 52.5%, ABS decreased 1.80% to 69.0%, and PS increased 1.10% to 61.0% [7]. 3.3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustments. South Korea reduced ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry's overall losses continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing about 8.3% compared to the same period last year. The refining and chemical sector alone lost more than 9 billion yuan, highlighting intense competition and profit compression [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South and Northeast China [8].

供应缩量支撑价格韧性，TA驱动有待终端放量 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月10日，PX 主力合约收6770.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.65%，基差 为-149.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4698.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.43%， 基差为-88.0元/吨。 成本端，09月10日，布油主力合约收盘66.53美元/桶。WTI收62.77美元/ 桶。需求端，09月10日，轻纺城成交总量为702.0万米，15 日平均成交为 662.8万米。 供给端： PX短期供应存在趋紧预期。尽管原油价格维持窄幅震荡对PX成本端驱动有 限，但PX装置开工率小幅下降，叠加下游PTA负荷降低导致PX采购节奏放 缓，或倒逼PX厂商调整开工率，从而支撑PX价格。PTA方面，近期部分大型 装置因加工费低迷进入检修（如逸盛宁波200万吨装置停车），行业整体负 荷已降至75%以下，供应缩量或对PTA价格形成底部支撑。 需求端： 聚酯需求仍存韧性但边际转弱风险增大。当前聚酯开工率维持在89%高位， 但需警惕终端坯布库存持续累积，欧美秋冬订单前置效应逐步消退，可能 压制后续补库动能。 库存端： PTA工厂库存去化力度成为关键变 ...

2025年9月10日，SHFE主力合约价格持平于79740元/吨，LME铜价微涨至 9916.5美元/吨，延续窄幅波动。现货市场基差全面走弱，升水铜升水缩窄 至100元/吨，平水铜升水降至20元/吨，湿法铜贴水扩大至-50元/吨，现货 出货压力增大。LME 0-3贴水则小幅收窄至-78.02美元/吨，但仍深贴水， 海外隐性库存压力未缓解。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓减少1245手至288791手，SHFE库存环比下降0.14%至155050吨， 连续两周去库。日内沪铜交投呈现减仓上行，资金在冲高后获利离场，短 期多头情绪谨慎。 PPI数据推升降息预期，噤声期铜价更加数据敏感 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 铜市场短期维持高位波动，供给端进口放量压制现货升水，但炼厂原料长 单采购支撑价格底部；需求端电网投资与季节性开工形成弱支撑，光伏与 建筑需求仍偏弱；宏观面美国就业数据疲软加大降息预期，但地缘风险与 美指波动限制上行空间。而宏观层面，昨夜PPI数据下滑，继续推升9月降 息预期，噤声期内对数据的交易或将增加，但是上方的压制仍旧明显。 1/7 价格走势判断 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On September 10, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly to 486.2 yuan/barrel (+0.7%), with an intraday fluctuation range of 481.0 - 490.5 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained flat at 62.77 dollars/barrel and 66.53 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI widened to 1.74 dollars/barrel (+41.46%) and 5.5 dollars/barrel (+10.22%) respectively, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly to - 0.3 yuan/barrel (previous value: 4.0 yuan/barrel) [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain Supply Side - Russia will increase its western port oil exports in September by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery attack. The US White House plans to require large refineries to share the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries, which may weaken refinery's crude oil import demand if the policy is implemented. The OPEC+ online meeting evaluated market trends, but no specific production adjustment signals from oil - producing countries were seen [3]. Demand Side - US EIA data shows that on the week of September 5, refinery equipment utilization rose to 94.9% (expected 93.7%), but crude oil implied demand declined to 1920.3 million barrels per day (previous value: 1982 million barrels per day). Gasoline and distillate implied demand also decreased to 950.17 million barrels per day and 477.24 million barrels per day respectively. High refinery operating rates and weak terminal demand may indicate an increased risk of refined oil inventory accumulation [3]. Inventory Side - The total inventory of US crude oil and refined oil reached the largest increase since 2023. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 393.9 million barrels (expected a decrease of 104 million barrels), refined oil inventory increased by 471.5 million barrels (expected an increase of 3.5 million barrels), and gasoline inventory increased by 145.8 million barrels (expected a decrease of 24.3 million barrels). China's crude oil futures warrants remained at a high level of 572.1 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, demand resilience is insufficient, and structural contradictions are emerging. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 0.7% to 486.2 yuan/barrel, WTI rose by 0.65% to 63.18 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose by 1.61% to 67.60 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed various changes. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 45.53%, SC - WTI spread increased by 2.00%, and Brent - WTI spread increased by 17.55%. - Other assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 0.72% to 2786 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.06% to 3383 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 0.5%. - Spot prices: Most spot prices had slight changes, and some remained unchanged. - Paper - cargo prices: Some paper - cargo prices were not available. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.55% [8]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Supply - On September 10, Russia increased its September western port oil exports by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery drone attack. On September 7, eight countries held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and future development trends [9]. Demand - The US Energy Secretary expects strong global economic recovery and a significant increase in oil demand in the next few years. However, US EIA data shows a decline in the implied demand for distillate fuel oil, gasoline, and crude oil [10]. Inventory - On September 10, the warehouse futures warrants of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the warehouse warrants of petroleum asphalt decreased by 300 tons, and the warehouse warrants of pulp increased by 38 tons [11]. Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had corresponding changes. The Trump administration appealed the court's ruling to block the removal of Fed Governor Cook. The US White House is reviewing a new rule that requires large refineries to bear the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD, etc. [13][15][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to maintain high-level volatility in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the core direction of fluctuation depends on the final decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th, the guidance of US inflation data, and the speed of domestic inventory depletion [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Daily Market Summary Market Data Changes - On September 9th, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly by 90 yuan to 79,740 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The spot premium continued to weaken, with the premium of premium copper dropping from 190 yuan/ton on September 8th to 125 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowing from 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount widened to 81.07 dollars/ton, highlighting the pressure of loose overseas spot supply [1] - On September 8th, the LME copper open interest increased by 1,928 lots to over 290,000 lots. However, with the high price of SHFE copper, domestic spot trading volume was suppressed, and downstream procurement remained cautious, lacking continuous short - term drivers [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industry Chain - Supply: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia suspended mining operations due to a sudden ore outburst accident, which may disturb market sentiment in the short term. China's imports of unforged copper in August decreased month - on - month to 425,000 tons, reflecting the slowdown of import demand in the off - season, but the release of smelter capacity still supported sufficient supply of electrolytic copper [2] - Demand: High copper prices suppressed the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory. The spot premium of electrolytic copper in North China continued to weaken. Orders in the power, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were seasonally weak. Coupled with the accumulation of high - price copper product inventory, terminal procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and the demand side lacked continuous stimulation [2] - Inventory: Global visible inventories were differentiated. On September 8th, LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, reaching a new high in nearly a month; SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 550 tons to 155,000 tons, still at a high level this year. The overall inventory pressure was not relieved, and the spot de - stocking rhythm was slow [2] Market Summary - The Indonesian mine accident on the supply side may briefly boost market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. On the demand side, high prices suppress restocking, and the weakening of the spot discount restricts the rebound space. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index on the macro - level provide support for copper prices, but market caution has increased before the release of CPI data [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM:1 copper on September 9th was 79,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.01%. The premium of premium copper decreased by 65 yuan to 125 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 34.21%. The premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan to 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The premium of wet - process copper decreased by 10 yuan to - 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened [5] - The SHFE copper price on September 9th was 79,740 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.11%. The LME copper price rose slightly. The LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, with a change rate of 0.82%. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, with a change rate of - 0.35% [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes various data charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][12]

媒体再爆枧下窝将近期复产，矿端对锂价牵引加强 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月9日碳酸锂主力合约收于72900元/吨，较前一交易日 下跌2.54%，延续弱势震荡格局；基差大幅走强1900元至1600元/吨。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量收缩3.51%至35.1万手，成交量锐减24.38%至 59.2万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：国内碳酸锂产能利用率稳定在66.41%，但锂辉石原料生产占比突 破60%，锂云母占比降至15%，或受宁德时代宜春矿区停产及盐湖提锂扩产 项目共同影响。 需求端：新能源汽车需求温和回暖，8月新能源车零售渗透率达55.3%，叠 加钴酸锂及四氧化三钴需求增长；但三元材料厂商对高价原料接受度有 限，且动力型磷酸铁锂价格维持33895元/吨，正极材料端采购偏谨慎。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂库存连续两周下降至14.01万吨，仓单减少印证供需边 际改善，但去库速度平缓表明旺季补库力度不及预期。 价格走势判断 短期内碳酸锂期货价格或延续弱势震荡，市场前期的上涨已经将目前所有 的利多计价，目前市场资金偏好明显被江西供应端的开工变动，昨日盘 后，多家媒体曝出枧下窝矿将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with its medium - and long - term trend depending on the continuous rebound of crude oil and the fulfillment of imports. The benzene - ethylene market will remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after inventory realization [2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - On September 9, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 0.21% at 7062 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33 (-5 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.12% at 6006 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 62.3 US dollars/barrel (+0.4 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 66.0 US dollars/barrel (+0.5/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [2] - The inventory of benzene - ethylene was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The inventory of pure benzene at ports was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.0% [2] - In September, there will be maintenance of benzene - ethylene plants, and the supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2] - The changes in the operating rates of downstream 3S varied. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 52.5% (-5.8%), the capacity utilization rate of ABS was 69.0% (-1.8%), and the capacity utilization rate of PS was 61.0% (+1.1%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has been in a weak and volatile state due to the game between cost and supply - demand. Although the medium - and long - term supply of international crude oil is expected to be loose, short - term supply is restricted. The increase in naphtha prices supports the cost of pure benzene. However, the demand is lackluster, and the subsequent supply pressure cannot be ignored. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound is limited [2] - Benzene - ethylene: After a seven - day decline, the benzene - ethylene market rebounded due to short - covering and plant maintenance. But the overall pressure is still significant. The supply is expected to increase in the future, the demand is weak, and the cost support may be weakened in the medium term. The rebound space is limited, and it maintains a range - bound trend [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene prices: On September 9, the main futures contract of benzene - ethylene decreased by 0.21% compared to the previous day, and the spot price decreased by 0.08%. The main futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 0.12%, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.08%. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged. The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.63%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.79%. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] - Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene production and inventory: From August 29 to September 5, the production of benzene - ethylene in China increased by 2.14%, and the production of pure benzene increased by 0.31%. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu increased by 9.78%, the factory inventory of benzene - ethylene in China increased by 1.67%, and the port inventory of pure benzene in China increased by 7.97% [6] - Operating rate: From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.67%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 1.03%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol decreased by 0.151%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased by 0.41%. Among the downstream of benzene - ethylene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 5.82%, the capacity utilization rate of ABS decreased by 1.80%, and the capacity utilization rate of PS increased by 1.10% [7] 3. Industry News - The United States imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea reduced its ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South China and Northeast China developing in coordination [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including pure benzene price, benzene - ethylene price, benzene - ethylene - pure benzene price difference, SM imported pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, benzene - ethylene port inventory, benzene - ethylene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [9][14][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market shows intensified multi - empty gaming. SC crude oil may continue to be weaker than the external market in the short term, and international oil prices (WTI/Brent) are expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. If geopolitical conflicts do not escalate, oil prices may decline further [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 9, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped from 490.5 yuan/barrel to 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.57%. WTI and Brent prices remained flat. The SC - Brent spread narrowed from 2.53 dollars/barrel to 1.52 dollars/barrel (a 39.92% decline), and the SC - WTI spread fell from 6.31 dollars/barrel to 5.3 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased from 11.5 yuan/barrel to 4.0 yuan/barrel (a 65.22% decline), indicating increased short - term spot - end pressure [2] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: Supply - side: Geopolitical disturbances persist, but supply increase expectations are strengthened. Malaysia plans to increase production, Norway will continue exploration, and Iraq sets different OSPs. Demand - side: Short - term demand is suppressed by the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and potential EU sanctions. Inventory - side: US commercial crude oil inventory accumulates counter - seasonally, and Mexican low - price export expectations reflect long - term supply - demand looseness. Domestic fuel oil warehouse receipts show differentiation [3] - **Price Trend Judgment**: The crude oil market has intensified multi - empty gaming. Support factors include geopolitical risks and potential EU sanctions, while suppression factors include non - OPEC production increase plans, US inventory accumulation, etc. SC crude oil may be weaker in the short term, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent change. Spot prices of various crude oils also have different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI change. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, etc., also show fluctuations. US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic reserve inventory increase, while the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decline slightly [6] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures, spot, and paper - cargo prices of fuel oil change. Spreads such as Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads also change. Inventory data of US distillates are provided [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: Geopolitical conflicts add uncertainty to crude oil supply. Malaysia plans to increase production, Norway will continue exploration, and Iraq sets different OSPs. Mexico receives funds and has production and price expectations [8][9] - **Demand**: Turkey signs a natural gas purchase agreement, and an Italian company's joint - venture may supply gas to Asian countries [10] - **Inventory**: US API inventory data and domestic fuel oil warehouse receipt changes are reported [11] - **Market Information**: Spot gold and WTI crude oil open flat. Crude - oil - related futures prices fluctuate. There are legislative proposals in the US, potential EU sanctions on Russia, and no adjustment in domestic refined oil prices. Mexican expected export prices are given [12][13] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Various data charts are provided, including WTI and Brent price and spread charts, US crude oil production charts, refinery operating rate charts, inventory charts, and fuel - oil - related price and spread charts [15][17][19][21][22][24][28][30][34][35][37][41][42][44][48][49][51][54][58][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, but the upward pressure is becoming more apparent. Supply - side copper ore is abundant, but policy disturbances in recycled copper add cost support. Demand - side weakness in household appliances and photovoltaic demand suppresses restocking momentum. Macroeconomic factors, such as the U.S. non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, create a mixed impact on risk assets. Future price trends depend on the spot purchasing and restocking strength of domestic electrolytic copper and the outcome of the September interest rate meeting [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract was 79,650 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 370 yuan from September 5. The premium of premium copper decreased from 285 yuan/ton on September 2 to 190 yuan/ton on September 8, and that of flat - water copper dropped from 75 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The LME spot discount continued to widen, with the 0 - 3 month discount expanding from 67.16 dollars/ton on September 2 to 68.04 dollars/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 8, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 155,825 tons, and the destocking speed slowed in the past two weeks. LME inventory on September 8 was 18,926 tons, a slight decrease of 1 ton during the week, remaining in a low - level oscillation. COMEX inventory increased by 434 short tons to 305,779 short tons, and the rising overseas hidden inventory pressured copper prices [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate supply remained loose. In August, China's copper ore imports increased by 7.2% year - on - year to 2.759 million physical tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August increased by 7.9% year - on - year. However, the import volume of refined copper decreased by 11.46% month - on - month to 425,000 tons. The adjustment of recycled copper policy led to an increase in the processing cost of brass strips, and the processing fee was raised to 1,500 yuan/ton [3] - **Demand Side**: The weak demand continued. In August, the operating rate of copper strips only increased by 0.25 percentage points month - on - month to 65.87%, 1.05 percentage points lower than market expectations. Weak orders in household appliances, photovoltaics and high copper prices suppressed procurement. The SMM survey showed that the operating rate of copper strips in September is expected to only slightly rise to 65.94% [4] - **Inventory Side**: The pressure of domestic visible inventory emerged. On September 8, the SMM copper inventory in major domestic regions increased by 0.63 million tons to 14.69 million tons due to concentrated arrival of imported goods. Although SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, the decline rate narrowed to 1.35%, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the next two weeks. LME inventory remained at a historical low, but marginal destocking stagnated, and the pressure of hidden inventory in overseas markets shifted to visible inventory [5] c. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, but the upward pressure is increasing. Supply - side cost support and demand - side weakness, along with mixed macro - factors, affect copper prices. Attention should be paid to domestic spot restocking and the September interest rate meeting results [6][7] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On September 8, the price of SMM 1 copper was 80,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 5. The premium of premium copper decreased by 70 yuan to 190 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper dropped by 10 yuan to 60 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened by 13 dollars/ton to - 81 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan from September 5, while the LME price was 9,907 dollars/ton, an increase of 42 dollars from September 5. LME inventory decreased by 1 ton to 18,926 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 155,825 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 434 short tons to 305,779 short tons [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - As of September 8, SMM copper inventory in major domestic regions increased by 0.63 million tons to 14.69 million tons due to concentrated arrival of imported goods, and inventory is expected to increase slightly. In August, China imported 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 11.458% month - on - month decrease. China imported 2.759 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates in August, a 7.2% year - on - year increase [9] - The adjustment of recycled copper policy led to an increase in the production cost of brass strip enterprises, and the processing fee in Jiangxi has risen to around 1,500 yuan/ton. In August, the operating rate of SMM copper strip enterprises was 65.87%, a 0.25 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but 1.05 percentage points lower than expected, affected by weak demand, high copper prices, and policy - related supply issues [10] 4. Price Trend Judgment - Considering supply increase, weak demand and macro - factors, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, ranging between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [37]