Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks due to the steady growth of supply, the slowdown of demand growth, and the decrease in the inventory reduction amplitude, with the overall market supply - demand balance being slightly loose [3][34][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On December 2, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 96,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the basis strengthened from - 3,140 yuan/ton to - 2,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 680 yuan. The open interest expanded to 552,239 lots, an increase of 8,606 lots or 1.58%, while the trading volume shrank to 454,290 lots, a decrease of 81,185 lots or 15.16% [1][31][37] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 8,805 yuan/ton and 4,825 yuan/ton respectively, with stable cost support. The capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, but new production lines were gradually put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month [2][31][39] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials increased slightly. The sales volume of new energy vehicles from November 1 - 23 increased by 3% year - on - year, but it is predicted that the sales volume in December may decline slightly. The cell production was at a high level but decreased month - on - month, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, the demand remained stable but the growth momentum weakened [2][32][39] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons or 2.07% from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down [2][31][40] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 2, 2025, compared with December 1, the lithium carbonate main contract price slightly declined, the basis strengthened, the open interest increased, and the trading volume decreased. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of some cathode materials and batteries also had corresponding changes [5] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On December 2, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, while the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream material factories mainly relied on long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and the market transactions were light. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were ongoing. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase, and the inventory will continue to be reduced but at a slower pace [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From November 1 - 23, the retail and wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the cumulative retail and wholesale volumes this year also increased significantly year - on - year [7] - **Industry News**: On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that its lithium mining project had basically reached the designed production capacity [9]

贵金属市场情绪暂时退潮，电解铜期价短期回落 一、日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月02日，SHFE主力合约价格小幅回落至88710元/吨， 较前一日下跌0.57%；LME价格同步下探至11145美元/吨，跌幅0.78%。基差 方面，平水铜升水走强至45元/吨，LME(0-3)升水维持69.18美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓量于12月01日小幅扩大至334442手，但BC铜合约成 交量显著收缩至7607手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：据12月01日IEA分析，铜市场面临结构性短缺风险，主因矿石品 位下降和项目周期延长；卡莫阿-卡库拉冶炼厂于11月21日投产，将逐步消 化库存；沙特开启矿产勘探招标，但短期供给增量有限。整体供给端受成 本上升制约。 需求端 ：电力领域需求稳健，建滔于12月02日宣布涨价5-10%以应对铜箔 成本压力；新能源领域支撑显现，诺德股份签订2026-2028年铜箔供应协 议。但传统需求疲软，12月家电排产同比下滑14.1%，再生铜杆市场成交清 淡，黄铜棒企业订单萎缩。 库存端 ：LME库存于12月02日降至30568吨，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene is expected to maintain a weak reality and strong expectation co - existing shock pattern in the short term. December is the most pressured period, and it may gradually turn to a weak and stable pattern later [2]. - The core contradiction in the styrene market lies in high inventory and weak demand. It may maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm and downstream stocking intensity [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On December 2nd, the styrene main contract closed up 0.23% at 6,564 yuan/ton, with a basis of 51 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.02% at 5,454 yuan/ton [2]. - On December 2nd, Brent crude oil closed at $59.3 per barrel (+$0.7 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $63.2 per barrel (+$0.8 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,320 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 164,000 tons (+16,000 tons), a 10.7% month - on - month increase; pure benzene port inventory was 164,000 tons (+17,000 tons), an 11.6% month - on - month increase [2]. - Styrene production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 335,000 tons (-8,000 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 67.3% (-1.7%) [2]. - The overall demand of the downstream 3S industries has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 54.7% (-1.5%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 71.2% (-1.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 57.6% (+1.7%) [2]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The short - term shock pattern of weak reality and strong expectation will continue. The emotional trading brought by overseas gasoline blending has cooled down. The pressure of full storage is rising, and the demand is still weak. The supply is expected to shrink in the long term, and the import volume after January is highly controversial. December is the most difficult period, and it may gradually stabilize later [2]. - Styrene: The core contradiction is high inventory and weak demand. The supply is expected to recover, and the supply - demand balance may shift from tight to wide. The demand remains in the off - season, and the price support is weak. It may maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - On December 2nd, the styrene futures main contract price increased by 0.23% to 6,564 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 0.03% to 6,654 yuan/ton. The pure benzene futures main contract price decreased by 0.02% to 5,454 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 5,320 yuan/ton [5]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 14th to November 21st, China's styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 343,000 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 447,000 tons [6]. - During the same period, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 148,000 tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 188,000 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 30.09% to 147,000 tons [6]. (3) Operating Rate - From November 14th to November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 0.30 to 69.0, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 2.18 to 88.2, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 11.46 to 78.7, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased by 4.49 to 75.7 [7]. - For styrene downstream, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 4.64 to 56.3, the VBS capacity utilization rate increased by 0.60 to 72.4, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased by 0.50 to 55.9 [7]. 3. Industry News - Japan's interest - rate hike prospects are stirring up the US market [8]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2% [8]. - US President Trump said Kevin Hassett is a "potential" Fed chairman [8]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by 2.48 million barrels in the week ending November 28th, compared with a decrease of 1.859 million barrels in the previous week [8]. - Trump said on December 2nd that he would strike any country suspected of "smuggling drugs" into the US, including Venezuela [8].

碳酸锂年内高位维持强势，需求预期稳固支撑趋势 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：11月28日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅走高至96420元/ 吨，较11月27日上涨0.63%，延续近期震荡上行趋势，基差维持稳定 于-3620元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量显著扩大，11月28日主力合约持仓增至526998手，较 11月27日的507882手增加3.76%；成交量则大幅收缩至580962手，较前一日 741463手减少21.65%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂盐厂整体开工率高位稳定于75.34%，无显著变化。11月国内碳 酸锂产量环比增长3%，同比大增49%，主要受锂辉石端和盐湖端支撑，其中 盐湖新增产线爬产顺利但受季节性气温影响部分回落；锂云母端产量环比 提升6%，因代加工订单增多。原料成本方面，锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿价 格持稳于8805元/吨和4825元/吨，但进口锂辉石环比减量，叠加新项目如 川能动力李家沟锂矿于11月26日确认达产，供应增量压力持续。 需求端 ：下游需求整体强劲，新能源汽车销量增长提供支撑：11月1-23日 乘用车新能源零售84.9万辆，同比增长3%。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost rebound drives PX and TA prices up, and attention should be paid to changes in polyester inventory [1] - Overall, the future price trend of PX and PTA is judged to be bullish or neutral - strong, with support from supply - side cost, potential demand strength, and low inventory pressure [54][61] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 28, the PX main contract closed at 6830.0 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 263.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4700.0 yuan/ton, up 1.47%, with a basis of - 90.0 yuan/ton [2] - Cost - end: On November 28, Brent crude's main contract closed at 62.92 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 59.1 dollars/barrel [2] - Supply - end: High PX device operating rate and stable PTA operating rate may push up PTA manufacturing cost and limit supply elasticity, providing upward support for PTA price [2] - Demand - end: Stable polyester operating rate may strengthen PTA's terminal consumption demand, especially in the polyester fiber field; stable or rising light textile city trading volume can boost PTA consumption, but seasonal demand decline may weaken price upward momentum [2] - Inventory - end: Low PTA factory inventory and deepening negative basis may strengthen upward pressure on futures prices; inventory accumulation may suppress price rebound space [3] Polyester - On November 28, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6250.0 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 6295.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45.0 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 of light textile city trading volume decreased from 710 million meters to 698.47 million meters, a decline of about 1.6%, indicating weakening terminal demand [4] - Polyester short - fiber inventory (6.28 days) is higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while polyester filament (POY, FDY, DTY) inventories are lower than historical averages, showing inventory differentiation with prominent short - fiber pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price rose 1.67%, trading volume decreased 26.72%, and open interest increased 2.16%; PX spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis decreased 74.17% [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price rose 1.47%, trading volume decreased 15.89%, and open interest increased 0.70%; PTA spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis decreased 309.09% [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price rose 1.43%, trading volume decreased 22.55%, and open interest decreased 5.18%; the spot price in the East China market rose 0.24%, and the basis decreased 61.86% [5] - Other industrial chain prices: Brent crude, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, and polyester bottle - chip prices remained unchanged; polyester chip, polyester POY, DTY, and FDY prices decreased [5] - Processing spreads: The spreads of naphtha and PX remained unchanged, while those of PTA, polyester chip, polyester bottle - chip, polyester short - fiber, POY, DTY, and FDY decreased [6] - Light textile city trading volume: The total volume was 778 million meters, with long - fiber fabric volume at 637 million meters and short - fiber fabric volume at 143 million meters [6] - Industrial chain load rates: PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged [6] - Inventory days: Polyester short - fiber, POY, and FDY inventory days increased, while DTY inventory days decreased [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On November 27, traders increased bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, expecting a cumulative 68 - basis - point cut by the end of 2026 [7] - On November 27, the US Treasury announced the replacement index value of October's CPI for inflation - protected Treasury bonds [7] - The Fed's Beige Book on November 27 showed that economic activity remained basically unchanged in recent weeks, with intensified consumer polarization [7] Supply - demand (Demand) - On November 27, the total trading volume in the light textile city was 778.0 million meters, a 14.58% month - on - month increase, with long - fiber fabric volume at 637.0 million meters and short - fiber fabric volume at 143.0 million meters [8] 4. Analysis of Future Price Trends Supply - end - High crude oil prices increase PX costs, which may drive up PX prices and support PTA supply costs; stable device operation can control supply pressure [53][59] Demand - end - Although there is no direct data, the rising prices may indicate good demand in the polyester and textile industries, but cautious judgment is needed [53][59] Inventory - end - Negative basis may indicate low inventory or strong futures expectations, suggesting potential price increases or low inventory levels [53][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pure benzene market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, with the price fluctuating in a certain range. December is the period with the greatest real - world pressure, and it may gradually stabilize after January 2026 due to supply contraction and demand improvement expectations [2]. - The styrene market currently has a structural contradiction of stable supply, pressured demand, and high inventory. It is difficult to show a trend in the short term and may maintain a weak oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - On November 28, the styrene main contract closed up 0.71% at 6566 yuan/ton with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.77% at 5479 yuan/ton [2]. - On November 28, Brent crude closed at 58.7 dollars/barrel (+0 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 62.9 dollars/barrel (+0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 16.4 tons (+1.6 tons), a 10.7% month - on - month increase; pure benzene port inventory was 16.4 tons (+1.7 tons), an 11.6% month - on - month increase [2]. - Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. The weekly styrene output was 33.5 tons (-0.8 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.3% (-1.7%) [2]. - The overall demand of the downstream 3S production capacity utilization rate recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 54.7% (-1.5%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.2% (-1.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.6% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.1.2 Views - Pure benzene: The short - term market is in a weak reality and strong expectation pattern. The overseas gasoline - blending logic has cooled. Demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to shrink after January 2026. December has the greatest pressure, and it may gradually stabilize later [2]. - Styrene: The market has a structural contradiction of stable supply, pressured demand, and high inventory. It is difficult to show a trend in the short term and may maintain a weak oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to overseas supply changes and domestic demand recovery [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - From November 25 to 26, 2025, the styrene futures main contract rose 1.35%, and the spot price fell 0.90%. The pure benzene futures main contract rose 0.96%, and the East China spot price rose 0.76% [5]. - The price of Brent crude fell 1.51%, and WTI crude fell 1.47% [5]. 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 14 to 21, 2025, Chinese styrene output decreased 0.43%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.67% [6]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 15.16%, and factory inventory decreased 0.70%. Pure benzene port inventory increased 30.09% [6]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization Rate - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in the pure benzene downstream decreased 0.30%, and that of caprolactam increased 2.18%. The capacity utilization rate of EPS in the styrene downstream increased 4.64% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8]. - The US non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8]. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8]. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of styrene and pure benzene over different time periods [10][12][18]

Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On November 28, the SHFE main contract price was reported at 87,360 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from November 27; the LME price on November 27 was 10,930 US dollars/ton, slightly down 23 US dollars from November 24. In terms of basis, the premium copper rose to 180 yuan/ton on November 28, up 5 yuan from November 27, with the premium strengthening; the flat copper remained stable at 55 yuan/ton; the discount of wet-process copper narrowed to -30 yuan/ton, with the discount improving. The LME (0-3) premium rose to 16.56 US dollars/ton on November 27, significantly strengthening from November 24 [1]. - **Positions and Transactions**: The LME positions increased by 3,102 lots to 330,192 lots on November 27, and the trading volume expanded. The SHFE inventory increased to 159,425 tons on November 28, up 1.43% from November 27 [1]. *** Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The CSPT reached a consensus on November 27 to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 to improve the supply-demand fundamentals. Japan's Mitsubishi Materials announced on November 28 that it plans to cut the primary copper smelting volume by 30%-40% by 2035 due to the sharp decline in processing and refining fees. The concentrate supply remains tight, and the LME inventory dropped to 35,244 tons on November 28, down 11.5% from November 24 [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand in the power sector is strong. The second-phase project of the Meizhou Pumped Storage Power Station of China Southern Power Grid was put into operation on November 28, supporting the demand for copper cables; the "Sahuang" project in Qinghai started on November 27, with a total investment of 73 billion yuan, which will generate rigid demand for UHV power transmission. However, the construction and consumer electronics sectors are weak. On November 28, information showed that the construction industry's orders slowed down due to high copper prices; the domestic sales production plan of household air conditioners in December decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, and the high base combined with poor terminal price transmission restrained the demand. The copper cable operating rate this week was 66.89%, slightly up 1.22% month-on-month, but the brass rod operating rate was only 50.48%, restricted by high copper prices and terminal wait-and-see sentiment [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory on November 28 was 35,244 tons, showing a continuous decline; the SHFE inventory on November 28 was 159,425 tons, up 1.43% from November 27; the raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises on November 27 decreased by 2.17% month-on-month to 27,000 tons, and the finished product inventory decreased by 1.34% month-on-month, but information indicated that the finished product inventory increased at the end of the month. Overall, the inventory is differentiated, with obvious destocking in the LME and inventory accumulation in the SHFE [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a high level in the next one to two weeks. The tightening of the supply side (CSPT's production reduction plan and Japan's smelting cut) provides support, the implementation of power projects on the demand side offsets the weakness in the construction and consumer electronics sectors, and the macro sentiment is favorable due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The copper price is expected to fluctuate between 87,000-89,000 yuan/ton [4].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The ethylene glycol price may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The supply-side operating rate has increased, but the deterioration of oil-based profits may curb further production increases, while the improvement of coal-based profits supports production. The demand side is stable, and the overall inventory is flat but with local increases. In the short term, the price may be supported by trading activity and basis, but inventory pressure needs attention. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and consolidate at the current level [37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The ethylene glycol futures price rose slightly from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,885 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. The East China spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,890 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The basis narrowed from +7 yuan/ton to +5 yuan/ton. Oil-based profits deteriorated, coal-based profits improved significantly by 66.34%, and natural gas-based profits remained stable at 1,430 yuan/ton [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract increased significantly by 44,107 lots to 193,887 lots, a 29.45% increase, indicating increased market trading activity. The position decreased by 3,366 lots to 283,437 lots, a 1.17% decrease, possibly due to profit-taking or position transfer [2] - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 67.97%, mainly driven by a 2.5 percentage point increase in the oil-based operating rate to 75.95%. The coal-based operating rate remained stable at 55.64%. The ethylene-based and methanol-based operating rates remained unchanged [2] - **Demand Side**: The downstream polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained stable at 63.43%, indicating no significant change in terminal demand and maintaining rigid support but lacking incremental drivers [2] - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory remained flat at 732,000 tons, with overall pressure controllable. However, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, reflecting an increase in local arrivals or slower shipments [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures increased by 0.31%, and the trading volume increased by 29.45%, while the position decreased by 1.17%. The East China spot price increased by 0.26% [5] - **Profit**: The profits of various ethylene-based production methods decreased, the coal-based profit increased by 66.34%, and the natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based profits remained unchanged [5] - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 2.3%, the oil-based operating rate increased by 3.47%, and the coal-based, ethylene-based, and methanol-based operating rates remained unchanged. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained stable [5] - **Inventory**: The East China main port inventory remained unchanged, and the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 3.64% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Market Conditions**: On November 28, the East China US dollar market had limited fluctuations, the crude oil market supported the cost side, the overseas supply of ethylene glycol decreased, the spot basis continued to weaken, the mainstream market center declined, and the Shaanxi market price remained stable [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics, and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [7][9][11]

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 28 日 星期五 纯苯苯乙烯均累库，但成本支撑难以突破 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 27 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.20%，报 6520 元/吨，基 差 55（+3 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.48%，报 5437 元/吨。 成本：11 月 27 日布油主力收盘 58.7 美元/桶（+0.7 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.5 美元/桶（+0.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5330 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 （2）观点 纯苯：纯苯市场近期受到原油与成品油的大幅波动扰动明显，尤其汽油 裂差在短期内经历了由走强转弱的变化，使乙苯调油需求的预期不断修 正。目前裂差已回落至中性水平，与前期相比，调油带来的支撑逻辑有所 减弱。供应端方面，美国部分歧化装置实际出现停车，对全球贸易格局形 成影响，预计中国进口量可能有所减少，从而在四季度季节性累库背景 下压低累库幅度。国内方面，华东个别工厂传出有减负安排，叠加 12 月 到港量偏紧，使供应端呈现一定收缩迹象。不过成本端由于油价回落而 走弱 ...

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On November 26, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined to 445.0 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 3.6 yuan or -0.8% compared to the previous day. The WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $58.11 per barrel and $61.9 per barrel respectively. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to $0.95 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread weakened to $4.74 per barrel, the Brent - WTI spread remained stable, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread significantly weakened to -7.3 yuan per barrel [2][63][73]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest and trading volume data did not show significant changes in the provided information, indicating relatively small market trading fluctuations [74]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On November 27, the total number of US oil rigs decreased to 407, down from the previous value of 419, suggesting that future US crude oil supply may tighten. On November 26, the production of Iraq's West Qurna - 2 oilfield remained stable at 460,000 - 480,000 barrels per day. Nigeria's Dangote Group plans to expand its refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, increasing long - term supply. Hungary and Serbia are cooperating to strengthen crude oil supply [3][64][75]. - **Demand Side**: On November 26, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21 in the US, gasoline production increased to 286,000 barrels per day, refined oil production increased to 87,000 barrels per day, and crude oil imports increased to 1.046 million barrels, indicating a recovery in refinery demand. However, the derived demand for crude oil production decreased to 1.9854 million barrels per day, while the demand for distillate fuel oil increased to 503,310 barrels per day [4][64][75]. - **Inventory Side**: On November 26, the EIA inventory report showed that crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 55,000 barrels and the previous value of -3.426 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory slightly decreased to 498,000 barrels [5][64][75]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation or face slight downward pressure in the short term. The reasons include a significant increase in inventories, especially the unexpected growth of crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories, indicating supply - surplus pressure. Although the reduction in US oil rigs provides long - term support, the short - term decline in derived demand and inventory accumulation suppress the upward price movement [5][69][76].