市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 截至7月25日当周，沪铜主力合约价格从79820元/吨回落至79290元/吨，跌 幅约0.66%；LME铜价从9854.5美元/吨降至9796美元/吨，延续高位回调趋 势。现货升水显著收窄，升水铜升水环比从180元/吨跌至165元/吨，平水 铜升水从110元/吨降至85元/吨，显示现货供应压力增大。LME铜0-3贴水扩 大至-53.68美元/吨。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量增至27.04万手，但SHFE铜库存增至12.85万吨，多空博弈加 剧。上海市场临近月末持货商抛售换现情绪增强，下游采购仅维持刚需， 市场流动性边际转弱。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动因素加剧。Newmont旗下RedChris矿因事故暂停运营，叠加嘉能可 Mount Isa矿于下周正式关闭，削弱全球铜矿供应弹性。但江铜赞比亚项目 投产补充加工端供应。整体冶炼端维持高位，进口铜到港及国产补充导致 上海地区垒库。 需求端： 淡季特征明显。铜线缆企业开工率环比下降2.07%至70.83%，预计下周进一 步降至70.30%，主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" policy boosts market sentiment, leading to a short-term valuation rebound in the polyester chain [1] - The polyester chain is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with inventory pressure suppressing prices, and the PTA processing fee may be compressed [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On July 23, the PX main contract closed at 6,860.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -123.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -14.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on July 23, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.67 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.45 US dollars/barrel [2] - On the supply side, the PX device operating rate remains high, and some previously overhauled devices are gradually restarting, with continuous pressure from marginal supply loosening; on the PTA side, the Yisheng Hainan device has resumed operation, the industry operating rate has exceeded 76%, and there are few planned overhauls, facing significant incremental pressure in the short-term market [2] - On the demand side, although the downstream polyester operating rate remains at a relatively high level of 88%, the terminal negative feedback intensifies, the weekly average turnover of the Light Textile City has significantly shrunk by 13.9% compared with the 15-day average, and under the pressure of坯布 inventory accumulation, the stocking willingness of polyester factories has weakened, and the marginal weakening trend of TA demand is clear [2] - On the inventory side, the PTA factory inventory shows a trend of inventory accumulation, and the current 5.2-day inventory is higher than the average of the past three years. Under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the social inventory may exceed the 2 million-ton mark from July to August, and inventory pressure will continuously suppress prices [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On July 23, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 168.0 yuan/ton [4] - From the supply side, the PX futures price has oscillated upwards from 6,778 yuan/ton on July 14 to 6,860 yuan/ton on July 23, and the PTA futures price has also risen from 4,740 yuan/ton to 4,784 yuan/ton, indicating strengthened cost support from the raw material side [4] - From the demand side, the MA15 of the trading volume of the China Light Textile City has continuously declined from 6030,000 meters to 5130,000 meters from July 14 to 23, showing a continuous weakening trend in terminal demand [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber are 8.04 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years of 4.96 days. The inventories of polyester filament POY/FDY/DTY are 25.4/25.6/30.7 days respectively, 25%/15%/8% higher than the average of the past five years respectively, and the inventory pressure of all varieties is significant. It is expected that the industrial chain will present a tug-of-war pattern between cost support and weak demand, and the inventory pressure in the filament link may force upstream adjustment of the operating rate, and there is room for compression of the PTA processing fee [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The report provides detailed price monitoring data for PX, PTA, short fiber futures and spot, as well as other related products in the industrial chain, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, basis, spreads, import profits, etc., on July 23 and July 22, 2025, and calculates the changes and recent price increase/decrease rates [5] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On July 23, White House officials planned to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters on Thursday local time; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said it is important for the Federal Reserve to maintain independence in monetary policy and has the responsibility to maintain transparency and be accountable; the US Treasury Secretary said the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates now, and there is no sign that Powell should resign, but if he wants to leave early, he should do so [7] - On July 22, the Federal Reserve added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project to the "Frequently Asked Questions" page on its official website; according to Semafor, Trump administration officials were considering visiting the Federal Reserve during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Scott was also discussing whether to attend; the US Treasury Secretary Baysent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US [7] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand - On July 23, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 4.42 million meters, a month-on-month decrease of 10.71%, with a trading volume of 3.54 million meters for long fiber fabrics and 0.87 million meters for short fiber fabrics [9] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spreads, short fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester staple fiber production and sales, polyester filament production and sales, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days, with data sources from Wind, CCF, and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [10][12][14][15][17][18][23][26][27][28][29][30] 3.5 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Analyze the market data of PX and PTA from the supply side, demand side, and inventory side to predict future price trends [38] - On the supply side, the decline in PX and PTA prices and negative basis may indicate supply pressure, and it is necessary to consider device operating rates and processing fees [38] - On the demand side, the current trading volume of the Light Textile City is lower than the average, reflecting weak downstream polyester demand, which may suppress PTA prices [38] - On the inventory side, if supply increases and demand weakens, PTA inventory may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [39] - It is necessary to consider the linkages between various factors. Although the decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, PX prices may still be under pressure if supply is sufficient. PTA processing fees may be squeezed, and PTA prices may continue to be weak [39]

市场情绪引发成本价格上升，乙二醇延续偏强预期 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格从4453元/吨小幅回落至4436元/ 吨，跌幅0.38%，期现基差扩大17元至54元/吨，表明现货抗跌性略强于期 货。月间价差方面，1-5价差走阔至-19元，反映市场对近月供需压力担忧 增加。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量下降6180手至26.2万手，成交缩量31%至17万 手，短期流动性下降显示市场观望情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：乙二醇油制/煤制开工率维持63.94%和57.9%的稳定水平，但各工 艺路线利润仍全线亏损，其中煤制亏损186元/吨，甲醇制亏损扩大至1277 元/吨，持续亏损或影响未来开工调整。 价格走势判断 乙二醇短期或延续震荡偏强格局。成本端看，油制/煤制路线深度亏损对价 格形成边际支撑，需求端聚酯刚性采购难抵港口到货增量，主港库存三周 来首现回升，压制价格上行空间。中期需观察煤化工亏损是否触发减产以 及进口货源到港节奏变化，关注政策面对市场情绪的提振作用。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] - Date: July 24, 2025 [1] - Core view: Styrene is in a "supply - strong, demand - weak" structure, and its short - term trend may be more affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the tone of the domestic macro - meeting at the end of July and the emotional impact brought by the dynamics of Sino - US trade policies. Pure benzene has a "supply - strong, demand - stable" pattern, and its price trend may be under pressure [3] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - Price: On July 23, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.12% at 7397 yuan/ton, with a basis of 53 (+49 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.67% at 6196 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On July 23, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 65.3 dollars/barrel (-0.6 dollars/barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 68.6 dollars/barrel (-0.6 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6030 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.8 tons (-0.1 tons), a month - on - month destocking of 0.7%; Jiangsu port inventory was 13.9 tons (+2.7 tons), a month - on - month stocking of 24.2%, and styrene overall stocked [2] - Supply: Styrene maintenance devices returned, and the overall supply was stable. Currently, the weekly output of styrene remained at 35.9 tons (-0.4 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3% (-0.9%) [2] - Demand: The operating rates of downstream 3S varied. Among them, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 53.2% (+2.1%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.9% (+0.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 50.6% (-0.5%), and the overall operating rate recovered [2] Views - Pure benzene: Last week, the supply of the pure benzene market increased month - on - month. It is expected that the supply pressure will increase. The downstream overall operating rate remains high, and short - term demand is expected to remain strong, but there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the long run. The port inventory is expected to gradually stock, and the price trend may be under pressure [3] - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase significantly. The demand is in the traditional off - season, with limited demand resilience. The port inventory continues to stock, and the spot basis continues to weaken. The short - term trend may be more affected by the macro - level [3] Group 3: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene prices: The main continuous contract of styrene decreased by 0.15% from July 21 to July 22, and the spot price increased by 0.05%. The basis decreased by 912% [5] - Pure benzene prices: The price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.5%, the FOB price in the US decreased by 0.35%, and the CFR price in China increased by 0.4% [5] - Spreads: The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 1155%, and the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 2091% [5] - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil decreased by 0.15%, WTI crude oil decreased by 0.10%, and naphtha remained unchanged [5] Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Production: China's styrene production decreased by 1.1149% from July 11 to July 18, and pure benzene production increased by 0.81% [6] - Inventory: Jiangsu port inventory of styrene increased by 24.22%, domestic factory inventory of styrene decreased by 0.66%, and the national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 5.75% [6] Operating Rate - Downstream of pure benzene: The capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased by 0.91%, and that of caprolactam decreased by 4.00%. The capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 3.33%, and that of aniline increased by 4.88% [7] - Downstream of styrene: The capacity utilization rate of EPS increased, that of ABS increased by 0.90%, and that of PS decreased by 0.50% [7] Group 4: Industry News - Trump and Xi Jinping will meet before or during the APEC Summit in South Korea [8] - The establishment conference of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was held in Beijing [8] - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [8] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, EPS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, phenol weekly capacity utilization, and aniline weekly capacity utilization [9][14][15]

Group 1: Report Summary - The current market shows a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality". The anti - involution theme has a deeper negative impact on lithium carbonate, but recent rectification requirements in Jiangxi and Qinghai have tightened supply expectations, pushing up the bullish sentiment. The basis has widened, creating a certain delivery profit space for the LC2509 contract, and a further rise in futures prices may attract industrial hedging positions [3][4]. Group 2: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - The lithium carbonate balance sheet generally shows inventory accumulation. For example, on June 30, 2025, the supply was 78,090 tons, demand was 93,815 tons, imports were 22,500 tons, exports were 700 tons, and inventory change was 6,075 tons [6][8]. 2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - Data on the lithium hydroxide balance sheet is presented, including supply, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, and cumulative balances. For instance, on June 30, 2025, supply was 24,450 tons, demand was 21,825 tons, imports were 800 tons, exports were 4,700 tons, and inventory change was - 1,275 tons [9][11]. Group 3: Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.1 Lithium Spodumene Imports - Import volume and average import price data for lithium concentrate from different countries are provided. In June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil. The average import price was $639 per ton [13][17]. 3.2 Chinese Lithium Mines - Information on domestic lithium ore production, market prices, and weekly inventory is given, including data on sample lithium mica mines and lithium pyroxene mines [18][20]. Group 4: Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their price differences and futures prices and basis. For example, on July 22, 2025, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 69,000 yuan per ton [22][26]. 4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, high - grade mica) are provided. On July 22, 2025, the production cost of lithium spodumene - produced lithium carbonate was 49,455 yuan per ton, with a profit of 18,495 yuan per ton [34][38]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - Weekly and monthly production data of lithium carbonate are given, including production by grade (battery - grade and industrial - grade) and raw material (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling). In June 2025, battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons [39][49]. 4.4 Operating Rate - The operating rate of the concentrate end is continuously increasing, and data on the operating rates of lithium salt (carbonate and hydroxide) and by raw material are provided [50][54]. 4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Imports - Import volume data of lithium carbonate from different countries are provided, including Argentina and Chile. In May 2025, the total import volume was 21,146 tons [55][59]. 4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Inventory data of lithium carbonate at downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and futures registered warehouse receipt quantity are presented [60][65]. Group 5: Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Production and operating rate data of lithium iron phosphate are provided. In June 2025, the production was 285,400 tons, and the operating rate was 57% [67][71]. 5.2 Ternary Materials - Production, operating rate, and import - export volume data of ternary materials are given. In June 2025, the production was 64,615 tons [73][82]. 5.3 Ternary Material Import - Export Volume - Import, export, and net import volume data of ternary materials are presented. In May 2025, the net import was - 4,874 tons [78][82]. 5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production data of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles, battery production, and dealer inventory warning index are provided. In June 2025, the dealer inventory warning index was 56.6 [83][87]. 5.5 Lithium Battery Import - Export Volume - Import, export, net export volume, and net export growth rate data of lithium - ion batteries are presented. In March 2025, the net export was 280.2 million units, with a growth rate of 28.17% [88][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint of the Report Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The ongoing game between OPEC+ production cuts and increased US exports, potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq, weakening refinery demand, and rising refined product inventories all contribute to this outlook. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, increasing refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 22, 2025, crude oil futures prices generally weakened. The SC main contract fell 1.56% to 504.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 8 yuan/barrel from the previous day. WTI and Brent dropped 0.5% and 0.61% respectively, closing at 65.45 dollars/barrel and 68.67 dollars/barrel. The spreads of SC relative to Brent and WTI narrowed significantly, and the SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped 47.4% to 20.3 yuan/barrel, indicating eased near - end supply - demand pressure [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On July 22, the trading volumes of WTI and Brent decreased by 26.8% and 30.4% respectively, and open interest also decreased, suggesting reduced market activity and partial exit of short - sellers. The single - day increase of 26,840 tons in fuel oil futures warehouse receipts indicates high pressure on bonded delivery resources, possibly related to increased refinery operations [3]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Geopolitical supply uncertainties are increasing. Mexico plans to issue bonds worth billions of dollars to support its national oil company, and Iraq and Turkey are negotiating an energy agreement. The US has become a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. However, OPEC+ maintaining the production - cut framework still restricts supply in the short term [4]. - **Demand Side**: Refinery demand has weakened marginally. US API data shows a 328,000 - barrel - per - day drop in refinery crude input in the week ending July 18. There is a structural differentiation in refined product consumption, with gasoline inventories decreasing by 1.228 million barrels and refined oil inventories increasing by 3.48 million barrels. The shutdown of the UK's Lindsey refinery further suppresses regional demand. The expected increase in global LNG supply may replace some fuel oil demand, but the natural gas cooperation between China and Algeria has limited substitution effect on crude oil [5]. - **Inventory Side**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected - 646,000 barrels), while Cushing inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, showing pressure at the delivery location. Refined product inventories are structurally differentiated, with unexpected refined oil inventory build - up and a narrowing decline in heating oil inventories, indicating weak terminal consumption momentum. The sharp increase in fuel oil warehouse receipts further highlights the implicit inventory pressure in the Asian market [6]. 3. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The game between OPEC+ production cuts and US export growth continues, and potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq depend on the progress of agreements. On the demand side, the decline in refinery input and the structural build - up of refined product inventories indicate weakened support during the seasonal peak season. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, rising refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly. The US dollar index decreased, while the S&P 500 increased slightly. The DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. The US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly, and API inventories increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decreased [9]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 22, 2025, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products decreased. The spreads of Singapore high - low sulfur and China high - low sulfur narrowed. Platts prices of some fuel oil products changed slightly, and there were changes in US distillate inventories [10]. 5. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 23, Mexico took measures to strengthen the financial situation of its national oil company, and a Kuwaiti company made a final investment decision on a natural gas exploration project in Egypt. The US became a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. On July 22, Mexico planned to issue bonds worth 7 - 10 billion dollars to support its national oil company. The IEA predicted a significant increase in global LNG supply next year. Zhongman Petroleum signed a natural gas exploration and development contract in Algeria. Iraq was considering renewing an energy agreement with Turkey, and Nigeria's Q1 oil production was 1.6 million barrels per day [11][12]. - **Demand**: As of July 21, the average price of domestic 92 gasoline increased by 48 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month [14]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 18, US API data showed changes in crude oil input, refined product imports, and various inventory levels, including significant increases in refined oil inventories and decreases in gasoline inventories. The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,840 tons [15]. - **Market Information**: As of July 23, the prices of some crude oil futures decreased. The trading volumes and open interest of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased, while those of natural gas futures changed. The market was in a state of multi - day oscillation, and concerns about summer demand and inventory changes affected price trends [16][17]. 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate charts, which help to visually present the market situation [18][20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of "strong supply and stable demand" with a neutral to weak monthly spread structure, and its price trend may face pressure [4] - The benzene - ethylene market has an intensifying supply - demand mismatch, and the monthly spread may shift from the current Back structure to the Contango structure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On July 22, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 0.15% at 7481 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4 (-64 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.95% at 6278 yuan/ton [2] - On July 22, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 66.0 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 69.2 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6005 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2] - The inventory of benzene - ethylene sample factories was 20.8 tons (-0.1 tons), a month - on - month destocking of 0.7%, and the inventory of Jiangsu ports was 13.9 tons (+2.7 tons), a month - on - month stockpiling of 24.2%. Benzene - ethylene showed overall stockpiling [2] - The supply of benzene - ethylene remained stable overall as the maintenance devices returned. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene was 35.9 tons (-0.4 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3% (-0.9%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 53.2% (+2.1%), ABS was 65.9% (+0.9%), and PS was 50.6% (-0.5%), with the overall start - up rate recovering [3] 2. Fundamentals - **Pure Benzene**: Supply pressure is increasing as some previously maintained devices resume operation and the expected production of Yulong Petrochemical in August will further increase supply. Imports are expected to remain relatively high. Demand is expected to remain strong in the short term but may weaken in the long term due to weak terminal consumption. Port inventory is expected to gradually increase, showing a "strong supply and stable demand" pattern [4] - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Supply will increase significantly as device maintenance ends and new projects are expected to be put into production in August. Demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for the 3S industry. Inventory pressure will intensify, and the monthly spread may change from Back to Contango [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The price of benzene - ethylene main contract decreased by 0.15%, and the price of pure benzene main contract increased by 0.95%. The prices of upstream Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly [2][7] - **Output and Inventory**: The output of benzene - ethylene in China decreased slightly, and the output of pure benzene increased slightly. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. The port inventory of pure benzene decreased [8] - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of downstream products of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene varied. Some increased, and some decreased [9] 4. Industry News - Trump and Xi Jinping are reported to meet before or during the APEC Summit in South Korea [10] - The establishment conference of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was held, and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing attended and unveiled the company [10] - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [10] 5. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of prices, costs, inventories, and start - up rates of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene and their downstream products [11][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation within the range of 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side factors such as smelting capacity release and inventory accumulation pressure suppress prices. The demand - side only has marginal support from power infrastructure, but its realization is lagged. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar and geopolitical risks on the macro - level suppress market risk appetite, resulting in insufficient upward drivers for copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of domestic policies and changes in overseas liquidity expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On July 15, the price of the SHFE main contract slightly declined to 78,330 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price also dropped to 9,643.5 US dollars/ton. The foreign market discount significantly widened, and the liquidity of the overseas spot market was under pressure. In the domestic market, the premium copper remained at par, but the spot discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper widened to - 50 yuan/ton and - 115 yuan/ton respectively, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1]. - **Positions and Transactions**: The LME copper position slightly shrank, the COMEX copper inventory increased to 236,454 short tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons to 109,625 tons. The spot trading activity was insufficient, and the market's divergence on the long - term supply - demand expectations intensified [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Domestic smelting capacity is continuously being released, and raw material supply is relatively loose. However, CSPT suspended the processing fee guidance for the third quarter, which may squeeze smelter profits and inhibit the short - term capacity release rhythm [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand expectation of domestic power infrastructure is boosted by the UHV project plan, but short - term downstream consumption is weak. The expansion of spot discounts and fluctuations in monthly spreads indicate a low actual purchasing sentiment, especially in the construction and consumer electronics sectors where demand has not improved [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories are continuously accumulating. The LME inventory suddenly increased by 47% to 34,379 tons, and the SHFE inventory also increased to 147,600 tons. The inventory accumulation pressure is prominent, confirming that the current supply - demand structure is relatively loose [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | July 15, 2025 | July 14, 2025 | July 9, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 78,300 | 78,600 | 78,810 | - 300 | - 0.38% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 165 | 0 | 0 | 165 | - | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 110 | - 50 | - 50 | 160 | 320.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 15 | - 115 | - 120 | 130 | 113.04% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 48 | - 62 | - 22 | 14 | 22.23% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 77,930 | 78,330 | 78,470 | - 400 | - 0.51% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 9,658 | 9,644 | 9,663 | 14 | 0.15% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,133 | 34,379 | 23,307 | 15,754 | 45.82% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 110,475 | 109,625 | 108,725 | 850 | 0.78% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 238,264 | 236,454 | 234,204 | 1,810 | 0.77% | short tons | [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 15: The 150,000 - ton/year anode copper transformation project of Liangshan Mining is in the pre - work stage; the 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project of Liangshan Copper is accelerating, aiming to start trial production by the end of the year [6]. - On July 14: In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - On July 14: CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee at the second - quarter general manager's meeting on July 11, due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fees [6]. - On July 14: From January to June, Chifeng Yuntong completed 53.19% of the annual target for electrolytic copper, 51.45% for sulfuric acid, 98.46% for gold, and 66.79% for silver. The safety and environmental protection situation remained stable, achieving the goal of "half of the time, half of the tasks" [7]. - On July 11: The monthly spread widened, and spot copper in many places was traded at a discount. According to the SHFE warehouse receipt report, the copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons on that day, with 377 tons, 400 tons, and 801 tons increases in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu respectively [7]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [8][12][13][14][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the crude oil market will continue its oscillating pattern in the short - term, with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side factors such as the环比 growth of OPEC+ output and the seasonal restart of US refineries ease the risk of geopolitical supply disruptions. However, demand - side issues like gasoline inventory build - up and reduced imports from India limit the upside potential of prices. The accumulation of inventory strengthens the expectation of a marginal weakening in supply - demand balance. If the inventory draw during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations, it may trigger a further price correction [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 15, 2025, the price of the SC main contract closed at 518.2 yuan/barrel, down 9.3 yuan/barrel (-1.76%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 66.83 dollars/barrel and 69.13 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads weakened by 1.34 dollars, and the SC continuous - contango 3 spread dropped from 26.0 yuan/barrel to 24.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, OPEC's crude oil production in June increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 2,723.5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasing production and Iran and Libya reducing output. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day. US API data on July 16 showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: OPEC maintains the 2025 demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day. The US gasoline inventory unexpectedly increased by 1.931 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased, indicating weaker - than - expected terminal consumption [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels, and the OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels, showing overall inventory pressure. The heating oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels, suggesting a structural differentiation in energy consumption [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: In the short - term, the market will remain range - bound with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side growth and refinery restarts ease supply risks, but demand - side issues and inventory build - up limit price increases. If the US summer driving season fails to reduce inventory as expected, prices may correct further [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 15, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices decreased, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - contango 3 all decreased. The US dollar index increased, and the S&P 500 and DAX indices decreased. US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and strategic reserve inventories all increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased slightly [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 15, 2025, most fuel oil futures and spot prices showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The Singapore and US distillate inventories also had corresponding changes, and the spreads between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and China also showed different trends [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 16, US API data showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput. According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, the production of many OPEC member countries changed in June, with the overall OPEC production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day [10][11]. - **Demand**: The OPEC monthly report expects global crude oil demand to be 106.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 107.52 million barrels per day in 2026, and maintains the 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 11, US API heating oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly, and crude oil inventory increased. The OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price decreased, and the market's reaction to the US threat of sanctions on Russia was calm. The fuel oil main contract price dropped. The market is concerned about possible US restrictions on European oil, and after the implementation of restrictions, the crude oil price may correct but will still maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US and global oil rig numbers, US refinery operating rates and throughput, and various inventory data, etc., to visually display the changes in the industrial chain data [15][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The supply side shows increasing production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side experiences a decline in the retail growth rate of new energy vehicles and weak spot procurement. The over - supply pattern in the industry remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis provides short - term support for the market, the reduction in positions and trading volume indicates market doubts about the sustainability of the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend after a rise and fall. The upside is limited by insufficient spot acceptance and inventory pressure, and the downside is affected by repeated fluctuations in capital sentiment. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On July 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The basis rose to - 1,960 yuan/ton, with the near - month price still in a discount structure. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94% to 342,146 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 24.69% to 764,028 lots, indicating a slight decline in market activity. [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory in the Industry Chain**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62%, with a slight release of production capacity. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable. The prices of power battery materials were differentiated, with lithium iron phosphate rising and ternary materials slightly falling. From July 1 - 6, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 11% month - on - month, and downstream enterprises had weak spot procurement willingness. Lithium carbonate inventory increased to 140,793 physical tons, up 1.77% week - on - week, with continuous inventory accumulation for four weeks, and the fundamental over - supply pressure continued. [2] - **Market Summary**: The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis supports the market in the short term, the reduction in positions and trading volume reflects market doubts about the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend, with risks of correction after the ebb of sentiment. [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes on July 15**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.27% to 66,660 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 26.87% to - 1,960 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94%, and the trading volume decreased by 24.69%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.41% to 64,700 yuan/ton. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable, while the price of lithium iron phosphate increased and that of ternary materials decreased. [5] - **Other Price and Data Changes**: The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 62%, and the inventory increased by 1.77% to 140,793 physical tons. The prices of some battery cells had slight changes. [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures market's irrational fluctuations continued, and downstream enterprises had low acceptance of current prices, with weak procurement demand. Upstream lithium salt enterprises had tentative price - adjustment measures, and actual transactions were mainly dominated by traders. Future price trends depend on both supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment. [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From July 1 - 6, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 135,000 units, a 21% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 56.7%. The new energy vehicle wholesale was 125,000 units, a 31% year - on - year increase and a 0% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. [7] - **Industry News**: - On July 4, Tibet Geermu Mining's subsidiary's invested company received a construction permit for a lithium - boron mining project, which is beneficial for expanding production capacity. [8][9] - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned a technical upgrade of its lithium salt production line, with a total investment of about 120.7 million yuan and a 6 - month shutdown for renovation. [9] - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, with a planned annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax. [9]