Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The lithium ore news has ignited the market, but there is a risk of short - term correction after returning to rationality. In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [1][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes** - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 7.97% increase. The basis weakened significantly, widening from - 4,800 yuan/ton to - 11,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 7,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.38% to 668,589 lots. The trading volume expanded sharply by 93.97% to 1,158,611 lots [1]. - **Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate remained stable at 9,665 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate stayed at 5,175 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% on December 5, 2025, to 83.52% on December 12, 2025, an increase of 10.86%, indicating an expansion of supply - side capacity. The Lijiagou lithium ore project reached full production in late August 2025, with an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate, strengthening supply stability. The cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, Jiangxi, did not affect the current supply as the relevant mines had stopped production [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 146,300 yuan/ton, and that of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 39,845 yuan/ton to 40,140 yuan/ton. The sales volume of new energy vehicles declined year - on - year in early December, reflecting weak terminal demand. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high - end products, but the overall demand growth was limited [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory dropped to 111,469 tons on December 12, a decrease of 1.88%, showing a continuous de - stocking trend [2]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. The increase in supply - side capacity utilization and the full production of mines strengthen supply stability, the decline in new energy vehicle sales restrains downstream purchasing willingness, and the current futures price has exceeded the acceptable range of downstream material manufacturers. Although inventory de - stocking provides some support, it is not enough to reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a 7.97% increase; the basis was - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 7,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a - 146.25% change; the position of the main contract was 668,589 lots, up 2,562 lots from December 16, a 0.38% increase; the trading volume of the main contract was 1,158,611 lots, up 561,294 lots from December 16, a 93.97% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 96,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from December 16, a 1.04% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials was 146,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.21% increase; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 40,140 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.74% increase [5]. - From December 5 to December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% to 83.52%, an 8.18 - percentage - point increase; the lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 113,602 tons to 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease, a 1.88% decline. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells rose from 0.34 yuan/Wh to 0.35 yuan/Wh, a 1.45% increase, while the prices of other types of cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On December 17, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,171 yuan/ton, up 1,209 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,600 - 99,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 - 95,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly, once rising more than 8% during the session, with a closing price of 108,620 yuan/ton. This market trend was mainly driven by market sentiment, triggered by the publicity of canceling 27 mining rights by the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun, Jiangxi. However, the involved lithium - containing porcelain clay mines had stopped production before 2025, so this event had no substantial impact on the current and subsequent supply stability of lithium carbonate. The abnormal price increase mainly reflected emotional fluctuations and was weakly related to industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the acceptable range of most downstream material manufacturers, and market transactions are mainly supported by the rigid - demand purchases of a small number of enterprises [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 10, from December 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease and a 10% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,165.7 million units, a 19% year - on - year increase. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 191,000 units, a 22% year - on - year decrease and a 20% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1,394.7 million units, a 27% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Industry News**: In recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries, represented by CATL's Shenxing battery and BYD's blade battery, have accelerated their penetration in the market, and the demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials has been increasing. Wanrun New Energy announced that it will upgrade the production line of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate products. On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that it holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium ore, with a proven ore resource reserve of 3.8812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [9].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 成本：12 月 17 日布油主力收盘 55.1 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 58.9 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5285 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 纯苯苯乙烯高库存淡季承压震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 17 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.37%，报 6404 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.96%，报 5388 元/吨。 （2）观点 纯苯：短期来看，国内纯苯到港高峰阶段性结束，港口库存增速明显放 缓，但库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks, with the main contract fluctuating between 95,000 yuan and 102,000 yuan per ton, due to the balance between supply and demand, the continuous but slowing inventory reduction, the strengthening basis and the expanding positions providing support, while the shrinking trading volume and the downstream wait - and - see sentiment restraining the upside space [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The main contract price of lithium carbonate on December 16, 2025, slightly declined to 100,600 yuan per ton, a 0.46% drop from December 15, while the basis strengthened to - 4,800 yuan per ton, narrowing by 1,960 yuan compared to December 15 [1]. - The open interest continued to expand, reaching 666,027 lots on December 16, an increase of 3,842 lots from December 15, and the trading volume shrank to 597,317 lots on December 16, a decrease of 102,284 lots from December 15 [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On December 16, 2025, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 9,665 yuan per ton, up 97 yuan from December 15, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 5,175 yuan per ton. The capacity utilization rate significantly increased to 83.52% on December 12, an 8.18 - percentage - point rise from December 5. It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials moderately increased. The power - type ternary material was priced at 146,000 yuan per ton, and the power - type lithium iron phosphate was at 39,845 yuan per ton on December 16. The cell prices were generally stable or slightly increased. Although the new - energy vehicle sales declined year - on - year in early December, the overall performance in December is expected to be good. The energy - storage market has strong supply and demand. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials remained high but decreased slightly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, with fewer new orders [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, dropping to 111,469 physical tons on December 12, a decrease of 2,133 tons from December 5. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline in December, but at a slower pace than in November [3]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks, with the main contract fluctuating between 95,000 yuan and 102,000 yuan per ton, due to the balance between the steadily expanding supply and the cost support, the marginal weakening of demand caused by the month - on - month decline in production schedules and cautious purchasing, and the continuous but slowing inventory reduction [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price data of various products on December 16, 2025, and December 15, 2025, and December 12, 2025, and December 5, 2025, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, etc., and shows their price changes and rates of change [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Spot Market Quotes On December 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 95,962 yuan per ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 95,850 yuan per ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate also had a price increase. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The actual market transactions were light. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were ongoing. It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month. The new - energy vehicle sales in December are expected to be good, and the energy - storage market remains strong in supply and demand. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high but decrease slightly month - on - month. The lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to decline in December but at a slower pace [7]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation From December 1 to 7, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease and a 10% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 1,165.7 million units, a 19% year - on - year increase. The wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers were 191,000 units, a 22% year - on - year decrease and a 20% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 1,394.7 million units, a 27% year - on - year increase [8]. 3.3 Industry News In recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries have accelerated their penetration into the market, and the demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials is increasing. Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its production line to increase the supply capacity of high - end products [10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report presents multiple data charts, including those of the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources such as Shanghai Steel Union and SMM [11][14][16].

Price Trend Judgment - The price of ethylene glycol futures has been rising recently, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and the price is likely to fluctuate. The reasons are as follows: on the cost side, the profits of coal-based and natural gas-based production have deteriorated, indicating a possible increase in costs; the profits of ethylene-based production have improved, possibly due to a decrease in ethylene costs. On the demand side, the loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms are stable, with no significant changes in demand. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has increased, indicating an oversupply pressure [39][41][45]. Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main contract rose by 49 yuan to 3,700 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 40 yuan to 3,670 yuan/ton. The basis widened from -21 yuan to -30 yuan (the futures premium increased) [36][24][25]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume increased significantly by 42.01% to 229,814 lots, and the position decreased significantly by 15.82% to 170,475 lots, indicating active trading, but the decrease in position may mean that some positions were closed [36][29]. Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall operating rate remained stable at 61.13%, with the oil-based operating rate at 71.18% and the coal-based at 49.34%, both showing no changes. In terms of profits, the profits of ethylene-based production improved (e.g., SD oxidation method improved by 97 yuan), but the profits of coal-based and natural gas-based production deteriorated. This may affect future supply, but the current operating rate is stable [37][26][30]. - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both showing no changes. The demand was stable [38][40]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 25,000 tons to 844,000 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 2,000 tons to 318,000 tons. The inventory pressure increased [39][40].

供应过剩主导原油市场，油价承压破位下行 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025-12-16数据显示，SC原油主力合约价格从436.5元/ 桶小幅回落至430.6元/桶，跌幅1.35%，延续下跌趋势；WTI和Brent主力合 约价格均维持稳定在56.68美元/桶和60.36美元/桶，但走势呈现高位回落 态势。价差方面，SC-Brent价差从1.55美元/桶走弱至0.78美元/桶，跌幅 49.68%，SC-WTI价差从5.23美元/桶走弱至4.46美元/桶，跌幅14.72%，均 显示SC相对弱势；Brent-WTI价差维持稳定在3.68美元/桶；SC连续-连3价 差从-2.4元/桶走强至-2.2元/桶，涨幅8.33%，表明近月合约相对坚挺。 持仓与成交 ：上期所原油期货仓单持平于3464000桶，低硫燃料油仓单增 加20000吨至20040吨，燃料油仓单持平于69550吨，整体库存端变化不大， 但低硫燃料油仓单大幅增加暗示供应压力；SC原油主力合约收盘价下跌 2.24%至423元/桶，后收跌1.58%至430元/桶，价格波动反映成交活跃度较 高。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided in the content - Core view of the report: The sharp decline in oil prices has hit market confidence, and polyester has been dragged down by costs. The supply and demand situation, inventory status and price trends of PX, PTA and polyester in the market are analyzed, and the future price trends of PX and PTA are predicted [2][3][53] Group 2 1. Daily market summary - **PX&PTA**: On December 16, the PX main contract closed at 6,744.0 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -180.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,668.0 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -58.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 60.36 US dollars per barrel, and WTI closed at 56.68 US dollars per barrel. The total turnover of the Light Textile City was 9.78 million meters, with an average turnover of 8.2507 million meters on the 15th [2] - **Polyester**: On December 16, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,106.0 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,265.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 159.0 yuan/ton. The average daily trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) increased significantly from 7.254 million meters to 8.2507 million meters, indicating strong downstream demand. The inventory of polyester staple fiber was 4.41 days, far lower than the historical average, indicating tight supply; the inventory of polyester filament POY was 16.7 days, roughly normal; the inventory of FDY was 22.2 days and the inventory of DTY was 23.9 days, both may be slightly higher than the historical average, indicating the risk of inventory backlog [5] 2. Industrial chain price monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,744 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 7.74%, and open interest decreased by 2.89%. The CFR price of the Chinese main port and the FOB price of South Korea in the PX spot market remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 18.18% [7] - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,668 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 72.20%, and open interest increased by 113.51%. The CFR price of the Chinese main port in the PTA spot market remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 222.22%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 11.76%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 4.17%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00%. PTA import profit increased by 0.57% [7] - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,106 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 7.61%, and open interest decreased by 3.13%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged. The PF basis decreased by 4.79%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 43.75%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 37.50%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40.00% [7] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester FDY remained unchanged. The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester staple fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester FDY remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread increased by 2.54%. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased by 7.47%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 6.14%, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 13.22%. The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory of polyester staple fiber decreased by 30.88%, the inventory of polyester POY increased by 2.45%, the inventory of polyester FDY increased by 4.72%, and the inventory of polyester DTY decreased by 1.65% [7][8] 3. Industrial dynamics and interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On December 16, Argentina planned to expand the fluctuation range of the foreign exchange rate monthly in line with the increase in CPI from 2026; the competition for the candidate for the Fed Chairman intensified, and Hassett faced opposition from senior officials around Trump; New York Fed President Williams and Boston Fed President Collins supported a December rate cut, and Fed Governor Milan thought the Fed's policy stance was too tight; India's gold imports in November decreased by about 60%; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China adjusted the personal precious metal trading business on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. On December 15, Fed's Goolsbee said to wait for more data before cutting rates, and expected more rate cuts in 2026; Schmid thought inflation was still too high; Paulson was more concerned about employment risks; Trump preferred former Fed Governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed the Fed Chairman; the People's Bank of China said to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [9] - **Supply - demand - demand**: On December 16, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 9.78 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.47%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 7.8 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.97 million meters [10] Future price judgment - **Supply side**: PX device operating rate may be high or supply may increase, as the falling PX price and negative basis imply sufficient supply in the spot market. PTA supply may be tight or the operating rate may be low, as the rising PTA price indicates [53][55] - **Demand side**: Although the polyester operating rate is not provided, the significantly higher trading volume in the Light Textile City than the average indicates strong downstream textile demand, which drives polyester and PTA demand. The high trading volume in the Light Textile City implies good terminal demand [58] - **Inventory side**: Although the PTA factory inventory is not provided, strong demand may lead to a decrease in inventory, which is favorable for prices [59] - **Overall**: PX supply may be loose, and its price may continue to be pressured with a slight downward risk; PTA demand is strong, supply may be tight, and its price may rise [60][61]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is under short - term pressure, with high domestic arrivals and inventory accumulation. Overseas, there is room for the price difference between the US and South Korea to repair. The supply side has shown negative feedback, but it has limited ability to offset the arrival pressure. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream overall starts are declining continuously [2]. - Styrene maintains a pattern of low start - up and inventory reduction. Short - term supply tightening supports the price, but the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pull on the price increase is limited. It may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On December 16, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.09% at 6,493 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.15% at 5,440 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 56.8 US dollars/barrel (- 0.6 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 60.6 US dollars/barrel (- 0.5 US dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,295 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (- 1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+ 3.6 tons). The weekly output of styrene was 34.2 tons (+ 0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.3% (- 0.6%). Among the downstream 3S, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 53.8% (- 2.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (+ 2.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 58.3% (- 0.7%) [2]. Views - Pure benzene: The short - term pressure on the fundamentals of pure benzene is mainly on the real - time side. The domestic arrival volume remains high, and the inventory in the main port accumulates rapidly. The supply side has negative feedback, but the demand side is in the off - season, and downstream starts are decreasing [2]. - Styrene: The styrene market continues the pattern of low start - up and inventory reduction. Short - term supply tightening supports the price, but the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is limited. It may maintain a volatile trend [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On December 16, the main contract of styrene futures increased by 0.09% to 6,493 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 0.09% to 6,780 yuan/ton. The main contract of pure benzene futures decreased by 0.15% to 5,440 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China decreased by 0.38% to 5,295 yuan/ton. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [5]. - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 4.33% to - 378.6 yuan/ton, and the spread between East China and Shandong of pure benzene decreased by 133.33% to - 5 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.08% to 56.8 US dollars/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 0.92% to 60.6 US dollars/ton. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5]. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, the output of styrene in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons, and the output of pure benzene decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons, and the factory inventory of domestic styrene decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [6]. Capacity Utilization Rate - From November 28 to December 5, among the downstream of pure benzene, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 1.56% to 68.9%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 7.53% to 79.2%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 0.57% to 81.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased by 0.04% to 77.2%. Among the downstream of styrene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 1.61% to 56.4%, the capacity utilization rate of ABS decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%, and the capacity utilization rate of PS increased by 1.40% to 59.0% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided an additional 235 million Canadian dollars in aid to Ukraine [8]. - The ADP employment in the US in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8]. - Fitch lowered the oil price expectations from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the market oversupply [10]. - Despite US pressure, Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there were signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and interest rate cuts were needed [10]. - From November 28 to the week ending on that day, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 574,000 barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of pure benzene and styrene, the spread between styrene and pure benzene, the import and domestic costs of styrene's pure benzene, the inventories of styrene ports, factories, and ABS, the port inventory of pure benzene, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [15][20][24][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The price range is expected to be between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory increases and potential capacity expansion are putting pressure on prices, while the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data [3][62]. 3. Section Summaries Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract dropped slightly from 92,280 yuan/ton on December 15th to 91,870 yuan/ton on December 16th, a decline of 0.44%. The basis weakened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - priced copper, and wet - process copper deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount changed from 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 10th to - 4.39 US dollars/ton on December 15th [1][59]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,912 lots to 351,056 lots on December 15th, indicating an expansion in position volume. However, the SMM Yangshan copper premium market had a cold offer on December 16th, with weak spot trading and a contraction in trading volume [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There is potential for increased supply. On December 15th, Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc involving US mines and smelters, expected to be completed in 2026. Fortescue acquired Alta Copper Company, and Hubei Zeming's 50,000 - ton anode copper project is advancing. LME inventory increased from 42,226 tons on December 15th to 45,784 tons on December 16th, an increase of 8.43%, and COMEX inventory also rose, showing supply pressure [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is weak. China's industrial output and retail sales data were below expectations. Asia - Pacific Technology's "aluminum replacing copper" project in the home appliance field may substitute some copper demand. Although Xiaomi's Wuhan smart home appliance factory was put into operation and Gree Electric Appliance is developing robot parts, the SMM North China electrolytic copper market had low activity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [2][60]. - **Inventory Side**: Overall inventory increased. LME and COMEX inventories rose, while SHFE inventory remained stable at 165,875 tons, suggesting a loose supply - demand pattern [2][61]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side inventory increase and potential capacity expansion are pressuring prices, the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data. The copper price is expected to range between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the current situation of the copper market, indicating that the short - term contradictions in electrolytic copper continue due to regional market delivery pressure. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks, influenced by factors such as supply - side pressure, weak demand, and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment [3][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of the SHFE main contract on December 15, 2025, was 92,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from December 12, showing a slight decline. The premium of premium copper increased from 10 yuan/ton on December 12 to 85 yuan/ton on December 15, strengthening the basis [1][58]. - On December 12, 2025, the LME copper positions increased by 3,298 lots to 348,144 lots, and the trading volume expanded, indicating increased market activity [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The LME inventory increased to 42,226 tons on December 15, 2025, a 29.67% increase from December 9, indicating increased supply pressure. Recently, BMC Mining listed on the Australian Stock Exchange to advance the KZK project, and Fortescue acquired AltaCopper's Canariaco project, which may increase future copper supply [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: On December 15, 2025, downstream procurement was weak. The decline in copper prices but still high absolute prices suppressed demand. The acceleration of aluminum - replacing - copper industrialization by Huafeng Aluminum may replace some copper demand [2][61]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory increased significantly, the COMEX inventory increased to 450,618 short tons on December 12, 2025, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 165,875 tons on December 15, 2025. Overall, the global inventory level increased, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation [2][62]. Price Trend Judgment The driving factors include increased supply pressure from inventory accumulation and potential new projects on the supply side; suppressed demand from weak downstream procurement and the risk of aluminum replacement on the demand side; and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [3][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report In the context of the dynamic balance between supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Future lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with the main contract likely to fluctuate in the range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [3][59]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 15, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 97,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,160 yuan/ton compared to December 12. The basis strengthened, narrowing from -6,380 yuan/ton on December 12 to -3,720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest slightly increased, reaching 636,384 lots on December 15, an increase of 2,101 lots compared to 634,283 lots on December 12. The trading volume also expanded to 757,689 lots, an increase of 13,499 lots compared to the previous value of 744,190 lots [1]. Analysis of Changes in Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply Side**: The market price of spodumene concentrate slightly increased to 9,410 yuan/ton on December 15, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to December 12. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 4,990 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate significantly increased, reaching 83.52% on December 12, an increase of 8.18 percentage points compared to 75.34% on December 5. The main reason was the commissioning of new production lines and the optimization of salt - field processes, which promoted supply growth. Information showed that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December was expected to increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure continued [2]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream demand remained stable but showed obvious differentiation. The prices of cathode materials slightly increased. On December 15, the price of power - type ternary materials rose to 145,800 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose to 39,680 yuan/ton. The cell production schedule was at a high level, but CPCA data showed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles from December 1 - 7 decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in their purchasing intentions, mainly using price - fixing methods. Information indicated that the demand for fast - charging batteries was booming, but the overall demand decreased slightly month - on - month despite the strong supply and demand in the energy storage market [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, reaching 111,469 physical tons on December 12, a decrease of 2,133 tons compared to 113,602 tons on December 5, but the inventory reduction rate slowed down compared to the previous period [2]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the main contract may fluctuate in the range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The reason is that the supply is steadily increasing due to the increase in capacity utilization rate and the commissioning of new projects on the supply side. Although the demand side is affected by the short - term decline in new energy vehicle sales, the high cell production schedule and the demand for fast - charging batteries provide support. The slowdown in inventory reduction highlights the dynamic balance between supply and demand. Cautious market sentiment and the game in annual long - term contract negotiations may suppress the unilateral price trend, resulting in a volatile consolidation situation [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring On December 15, 2025, compared with December 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3,340 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.42%; the basis decreased by 3,040 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 81.72%; the open interest of the main contract increased by 25,801 lots, with a change rate of 4.05%; the trading volume of the main contract decreased by 58,088 lots, with a change rate of - 7.67%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.32%; the market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 158 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.68%; the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 185 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials increased by 250 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.17%; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 160 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.40% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotations On December 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 95,238 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 657 yuan/ton. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,500 - 96,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 95,150 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 92,000 - 93,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 92,650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. The main contract was in the range of 97,300 - 101,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,060 yuan/ton. Affected by the sentiment, the futures price exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton in the afternoon. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious and had weak purchasing intentions. The actual market transactions were light, mainly using post - price - fixing methods. Currently, the annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are still ongoing, and the focus of the game is on the price coefficient and procurement volume for next year. On the supply side, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, the domestic lithium carbonate production in December is expected to continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December is expected to be still impressive; the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern will remain. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials in December are expected to remain at a high level but decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, in the context of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December, but the reduction rate will slow down compared to November [6]. Downstream Consumption Situation According to CPCA data on December 10, from December 1 - 7, the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles in the national passenger - car market was 185,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The cumulative retail sales volume this year was 1,165.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%. From December 1 - 7, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger - car manufacturers was 191,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 20%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 1,394.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27% [7]. Industry News - On December 11, in recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries represented by CATL's Shenxing battery and BYD's Blade battery have accelerated their penetration in vehicle installations, and the market demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials has been increasing. To seize the technological high - ground of this high - end product, industry enterprises have continued to increase their layout. Recently, Wanrun New Energy announced that to improve the supply capacity of its high - end products, it will upgrade the production line of the "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" in the "240,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate co - produced with 240,000 - ton/year iron phosphate project" of Lubei Wanrun Smart Energy Technology (Shandong) Co., Ltd., and adjust the product structure to high - density lithium iron phosphate products [9]. - On November 28, on November 26, Sichuan Energy Power (000155) mentioned in an institutional research that in terms of lithium batteries, the company holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium mine, with a proven ore resource reserve of 3.8812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual production of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [9].