苯乙烯转向累库，地缘因素影响成本支撑 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 1 周度总结：纯苯：阶段性去库显著，四季度累库压力犹存 纯苯：阶段性去库显著，四季度累库压力犹存 本周纯苯市场运行偏弱，价格整体随原油震荡。供应端来看，福佳大化一套重整歧化装 置按计划停车，中海壳牌一套裂解装置则因计划外原因停车，但前期部分加氢苯装置重 启，总体供应较上周变化不大。展望后市，华东两家工厂已推迟其装置检修时间，而山 东地区两套长期停工的小型装置计划于10月中旬回归，进口方面亦有消息显示11-12月 将有欧洲船货流入，因此四季度供应增量预期较强。需求端开工涨跌互现，苯乙烯、己 二酸开工下滑，但己内酰胺、苯胺、苯酚等部分装置重启提负，使得整体折算需求较上 周期回升。不过终端消费迟迟未显现传统旺季回暖迹象，产业链利润偏弱，提振有限。 库存方面，华东港口纯苯库存下降至10.7万吨，环比去库2.7万吨，幅度达20.1%。整体 判断，短期因阶段性去库对市场形成一定支撑，但在四季度供应累积和需求改善不足的 背景下，纯苯累库格局仍难扭转 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 9 月 26 日 星期五 苯乙烯基本面偏弱，跟随原油成本波动 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：9 月 25 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.43%，报 6958 元/吨，基差 -18（-15 吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 0.25%，报 5922 吨。 成本：9 月 25 日布油主力收盘 65.0 美元/桶（+1.6 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 68.5 美元/桶（+1.5 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5885 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 苯乙烯库存 18.7 万吨（+2.8 万吨），环比累库 17.3%，苯乙烯转为 累库。纯苯港口库存 10.7 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 20.1%。 供应：苯乙烯已有装置开始检修，开工率及供应如期减少。目前， 苯乙烯周产量 34.6 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 73.2%（- 0.2%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.2%（- 6.49%），ABS 产能利用率 70%（+0.2%），PS 产能利用率 59.1%（- 2.1%）。 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with strong price resilience in the context of increasing supply and demand, but lacking a breakthrough driver [3] - The lithium carbonate market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected to experience a period of tight supply [6] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day's 72,880 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened significantly from 620 yuan/ton on September 24 to - 540 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 25, the position of the main contract slightly expanded to 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume slightly shrank to 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [1] Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: On September 19, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose to 71.31%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from 66.41% on September 12. The price of spodumene concentrate was stable at 6,390 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate remained at 3,400 yuan/ton. However, lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month in August, and future supply increments may be restricted by tight raw materials [2] - **Demand Side**: From September 1 to 21, new - energy vehicle retail sales reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 58,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials increased to 120,750 yuan/ton. But pre - holiday stockpiling is nearing the end, and demand may decline after October [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On September 19, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,531 physical tons, a reduction of 981 tons from 138,512 physical tons on September 12, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the basis was - 540 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the main contract position was 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [5] - From September 19 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, and the inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotes - On September 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in the peak demand season, pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream material factories is nearing the end, and market sentiment is turning cautious. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a period of tight supply [6] Downstream Consumption - From September 1 to 21, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 58.5%. The wholesale volume was 724,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 55.4% [7] Industry News - On September 11, a "Lithium Belt in Asia" was discovered in China, spanning four provinces and regions [9] - On September 10, news of the potential restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine spread, and the company planned to restart production in November, but the outcome is uncertain [9]

需求预期与"黑天鹅"共振，铜价打开上方空间 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：9月25日SHFE主力合约价格大幅上扬至82540元/吨，较9 月24日上涨3.19%，突破83000元/吨关口。基差整体走弱，升水铜贴水从9 月24日95元/吨回落至80元/吨，平水铜贴水从15元/吨扩大至-10元/吨，湿 法铜贴水加深至-60元/吨；LME(0-3)贴水9月24日为-31.37美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：铜价暴涨期间持仓量显著扩大；但成交量明显收缩，受高铜 价抑制，下游采购情绪减弱，日内精铜杆成交量下滑，现货市场买卖清 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给扰动加剧，9月25日印尼Grasberg铜矿宣布不可抗力，预计 2026年产量降35%；叠加9月24日加拿大Hudbay矿业关闭秘鲁Constancia选 矿厂，引发全球供应担忧。上游铜精矿市场成交活跃度低，SMM进口指数9 月19日报-40.8美元/干吨，小幅回升；华北炼厂检修导致供应有限，整体 供应偏紧。 需求端 ：需求受高铜价显著抑制，9月25日华北市场下游企业备货需求几 无，消费不佳促使加工企业考虑延长国庆假期；电力、建筑等领 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, domestic supply - side disturbances have increased. With the maintenance of some refining and chemical plants in East and South China, production has decreased, and the import of Asian sources is restricted. Demand remains weak, and inventory in some areas has decreased. The cost has increased. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate strongly under the support of plant maintenance, but in the long - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression caused by OPEC+ production increase and less - than - expected demand recovery [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply has been continuously shrinking due to maintenance. Although production may increase this week, downstream device operation is differentiated, and inventory performance is also different. The cost of non - integrated enterprises has increased, and profit margins have been compressed. In September, the supply pressure is relatively alleviated. In the short - term, inventory is being reduced, but if demand does not improve significantly, the price increase space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On September 22, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.92% at 6,928 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42 (+4 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.75% at 5,921 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On September 22, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,875 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization have decreased. The weekly output was 34.7 tons (-0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 73.4% (-1.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS was 61.7% (+0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (-0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (-0.7%) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. South Korea has cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories have closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared with the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South and Northeast China developing in coordination [8]. 3.3 Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.92%, and the spot price decreased by 1.78%. The basis increased by 10.53% [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.75%, and prices in different regions had different degrees of decline [5]. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.32%, and naphtha decreased by 1.14% [5]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From September 5 to 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97%, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: From September 5 to 12, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, and pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% [6]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changed to different degrees from September 5 to 12 [7]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also had different changes during the same period [7].

李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 需求下滑，聚酯原料价格或继续承压下行 通惠期货研发部 1. PTA&PX 09月22日，PX 主力合约收6592.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.03%，基差 为-17.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4586.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.39%， 基差为-26.0元/吨。 成本端，09月22日，布油主力合约收盘66.05美元/桶。WTI收62.36美元/ 桶。需求端，09月22日，轻纺城成交总量为727.0万米，15 日平均成交为 760.53万米。 供给端：素材未提及PX和PTA装置开工率及装置变动相关信息，难以从供给 端判断未来PX和PTA价格走势。 需求端：轻纺城成交总量低于15日平均成交，反映出纺织品市场需求有所 下滑，聚酯产品需求可能随之减少，进而降低对PTA的需求，这可能使PTA 价格面临下行压力，而PTA需求减少也会间接影响PX需求，对PX价格产生一 定负面影响。 库存端：素材未给出PTA工厂库存相关内容，无法 ...

供需缺乏明显矛盾，碳酸锂后市仍需关注锂矿进展 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月22日碳酸锂主力合约价格收73420元/吨，小幅回落 540元/吨，下跌0.73%。基差报-120元/吨，较9月19日走强540元/吨。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量为271624手，较9月19日减少9640手；主力合 约成交量为396645手，较9月19日扩大26286手，变化率为7.1%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿市场价在9月19-22日维持稳定，分别为 6390元/吨和3400元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率从9月12日的66.41%提升至9月 19日的71.31%，提升了4.9个百分点。 需求端：9月1-14日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售和批发数据同比和环比均 有增长，零售43.8万辆，同比增长6%，较上月同期增长10%；批发44.7万 辆，同比增长10%，较上月同期增长21%。动力型三元材料和动力型磷酸铁 锂价格在9月19 - 22日有小幅上扬，分别上涨200元/吨和80元/吨。下游电 芯价格部分有小幅度上涨。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂库存从9月12日的138512实物吨降至 ...

欧盟制裁及库存变化下，油价短期持续震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月22日，SC期货价格为483.0元/桶，较9月19日的487.0 元/桶小幅回落4.0元，跌幅为0.82%；WTI期货价格为62.34美元/桶，较9月 19日的62.36美元/桶微降0.02美元，跌幅0.03%；Brent期货价格为66.01美 元/桶，较9月19日的66.05美元/桶小跌0.04美元，跌幅0.06%。价差方面， SC - Brent价差为1.88美元/桶，较9月19日的2.42美元/桶走弱0.54美元， 跌幅22.31%；SC - WTI价差为5.55美元/桶，较9月19日的6.11美元/桶走弱 0.56美元，跌幅9.17%；Brent - WTI价差为3.67美元/桶，较9月19日的 3.69美元/桶走弱0.02美元，跌幅0.54%；SC连续 - 连3价差为2.6元/桶， 较9月19日的4.5元/桶大幅走弱1.9元，跌幅42.22%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 地缘政治方面，当地时间9月19日欧盟委员会通过新一轮对俄制裁措施草 案，涵盖能源等领域，这可能会对俄罗斯原油的供应和贸 ...

铜基本面相对平静，宏观落地后价格短期持稳 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差： SHFE铜主力合约价格9月22日收80160元/吨，整体上高位波动。基差方面， 升水铜升水从115元/吨小幅回落至105元/吨，平水铜升水由30元/吨降至25 元/吨，但LME 0-3月贴水从-71.09美元/吨收窄至-64.9美元/吨，近月供应 压力略有缓解。 持仓与成交： LME铜库存延续去库趋势，9月22日库存降至29893吨，较9月16日下降 6.11%；SHFE库存同步减少1.54%至145375吨。持仓方面，LME铜持仓量在9 月19日微减504手至289843手，市场多空博弈强度暂未明显放大。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动频发，印尼Grasberg矿区因事故停产加剧供应紧张预期，叠加华 北地区冶炼厂检修导致电解铜产量下降。然而，非洲地区废铜进口量同比 暴增，部分对冲了精铜供应缺口。不过阳极铜进口量同比下滑18.72%，反 映出精炼铜原料供应仍存隐忧。 需求端： 外需结构性分化，黄铜条杆出口同比下滑22.87%，但高附加值产品如铜板 带、漆包线出口表现强劲，韩国、印度等市场增长显著。华北地区受铜价 回升抑 ...

供需平稳库存略增，乙二醇短期无利好驱动 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：2025年9月22日，乙二醇主力合约期货价格为4240元/ 吨，较9月19日下跌17元/吨，跌幅0.4%；华东市场现货价为4335元/吨，较 9月19日下跌10元/吨，跌幅0.23%；基差为110元/吨，较9月19日上涨17元/ 吨，涨幅18.28%。MEG 1 - 5价差为 - 54元/吨，较9月19日上涨6元/吨； MEG 5 - 9价差为 - 44元/吨，较9月19日下跌23元/吨；MEG 9 - 1价差为 98元/吨，较9月19日上涨17元/吨。煤制利润为 - 476元/吨，与9月19日持 平。 持仓与成交：主力合约成交113147手，较9月19日减少26852手，降幅 19.18%；主力合约持仓329607手，较9月19日增加432手，增幅0.13%。 供给端：乙二醇总体开工率、煤制开工率、油制开工率、乙烯制开工率、 甲 醇 制 开 工 率 均 与 9 月 19 日 持 平 ， 分 别 为 70.8% 、 65.66% 、 74.39% 、 66.73%、62.43%，供给端较为稳定。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷和江浙织机负荷均与9 ...