1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing and the inventory is rising, and it is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term due to the prominent supply - demand contradiction, high - level inventory accumulation, and deteriorating production costs [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The main futures contract price of ethylene glycol dropped from 3,975 yuan/ton to 3,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,650 yuan/ton to 3,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23%. The basis widened from - 325 yuan/ton to - 330 yuan/ton [2] - **持仓与成交**: The open interest of the main contract increased by 8,928 lots to 437,707 lots, a growth of 2.08%. However, the trading volume decreased significantly by 72,332 lots to 200,272 lots, a decline of 26.53% [2] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose 3.6% to 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate increasing 2.2% to 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate surging 6.1% to 58.64%. The profits of various production methods generally deteriorated [2] - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was maintained at 63.43%, indicating stable but ungrowing demand [2] - **库存端**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 935,000 tons, a growth of 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory pressure increased [2] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main futures contract price of MEG decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China dropped by 45 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased, while the trading volume decreased [5] - **生产利润**: The profits of all production methods decreased. For example, the profit of ethylene - based SD oxidation method dropped by 196 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.92% [5] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, and oil - based operating rate increased, while the loads of polyester factories and textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [5] - **库存情况**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On February 12, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market was stalemate in the morning and the market center shifted down in the afternoon. The ethylene glycol market in the mainstream areas continued to fluctuate, with low terminal demand and weak purchasing willingness [6] 3.4 Price Trend Judgment - The ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation or decline. The reasons are the increasing supply (rising operating rates), stable but ungrowing demand, inventory accumulation indicating oversupply, and weakened cost support due to the deterioration of production profits [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations. Although the demand side is supported by the sales volume of new energy vehicles, cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short-term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. Overall, the market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short-term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 149,420 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 840 yuan or 0.56% from 150,260 yuan/ton on February 11. The basis strengthened to -10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or a 7.33% rise [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased from 356,531 lots on February 11 to 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or a 0.72% decline. The trading volume decreased from 351,877 lots to 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or a 13.38% decline [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The overall supply of lithium ore is stable, with the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining unchanged. However, logistics suspension restricts raw material transportation, and although the salt plant's operating rate remains high, short-term incremental supply is limited. Yahua Group's lithium ore self - sufficiency rate has increased, but the newly put - into - production projects have not yet formed large - scale supply, so the overall supply side is tight [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is differentiated. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven up the prices of cathode materials. However, the release of newly built battery production capacity is limited, the cell prices are stable, and downstream procurement is cautious, with moderate demand momentum [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons on January 30 to 105,463 physical tons on February 6, a decrease of 2,019 tons or a 1.88% decline, continuing the de - stocking trend. The inventory decline reflects accelerated downstream digestion, and combined with the Spring Festival factor, the enterprise's production - based - on - sales strategy suppresses inventory accumulation [2]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short - term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. The overall market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan or 0.56% from February 11. The basis was - 10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or 7.33%. The main contract position was 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or 0.72%. The main contract trading volume was 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or 13.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 138,800 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 14,155 yuan/ton and 7,900 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton. The price of power ternary materials increased from 174,600 yuan/ton to 176,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan or 0.80%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 50,620 yuan/ton to 51,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan or 2.15% [5]. - From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons to 105,463 physical tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons or 1.88%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 6.15 yuan/piece to 6.25 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.10 yuan or 1.63%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - packed ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt - acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotations On February 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 142,168 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3,685 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures main contract maintained range - bound fluctuations on the day, with an intraday increase of 3.66% and the disk price ranging from 146,000 yuan/ton to 152,400 yuan/ton. The position decreased by about 2,600 lots compared with the previous trading day. With the gradual suspension of logistics, downstream material factories have basically completed their February stockpiling, and most enterprises have turned to a wait - and - see attitude, with only a few engaging in late - point - price closing and sporadic purchases. Overall, market inquiries and transactions are relatively light [6]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on February 11, from February 1 to 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 119,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 41%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 715,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. From February 1 to 8, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 22, the cobalt intermediate product market maintained a relatively strong pattern. On the supply side, some overseas mining enterprises were bullish on the future market and conducted centralized procurement in the domestic market at a price of about 25.5 US dollars/pound, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods. Driven by this, the high - end domestic market quotations have increased to 26 US dollars/pound. On the demand side, the continuous rise in raw material prices has further narrowed the profit margin of smelters, and enterprises have mostly returned to the rigid - demand procurement model. In terms of policy, it is reported that the export process of non - pilot enterprises is progressing steadily, and it is expected that most of the quotas in January 2026 can be successfully exported. However, considering the overall tight market liquidity and the about three - month transportation cycle from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China, the structurally tight supply pattern of cobalt intermediate products is difficult to fundamentally reverse before the large - scale arrival of raw materials in April, and prices still have upward driving force [8][9]. - On January 16, Yahua Group stated on the investor interaction platform that its lithium ore project in Zimbabwe has shipped lithium ore back to China in batches and used it for relevant production, and its lithium ore self - sufficiency rate is expected to increase. The company also said that it is still actively promoting the inspection of high - quality lithium resources at home and abroad and will follow the principles of "multi - dimensional demonstration, full - process research, and prudent decision - making" to promote relevant work. As of November 2025, Yahua Group had formed a diversified channel layout of self - controlled mines and purchased mines, establishing a relatively complete lithium resource guarantee system [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][16][18][19][22][23].

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: The price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly from 476.1 yuan/barrel to 476.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.15% increase. The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 64.2 dollars/barrel and 69.08 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread strengthened from -0.21 dollars/barrel to -0.09 dollars/barrel, a 57.14% increase. The SC-WTI spread strengthened from 4.67 dollars/barrel to 4.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.57% increase. The Brent-WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.88 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread slightly declined from -8.6 yuan/barrel to -8.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.16% decrease [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: Position data is not provided. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 3,464,000 barrels. The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons to 4,980 tons, and the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 34,710 tons [2]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to the OPEC monthly report on February 11, 2026, OPEC+ member countries' total output in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day to 42.45 million barrels per day, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's output. Specific country changes include: UAE decreased by 14,000 barrels per day to 3.389 million barrels per day; Nigeria decreased by 19,000 barrels per day to 1.478 million barrels per day; Libya decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 1.304 million barrels per day; Algeria decreased by 2,000 barrels per day to 968,000 barrels per day; Venezuela decreased by 87,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day; Iran decreased by 81,000 barrels per day to 3.129 million barrels per day; Iraq increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 4.157 million barrels per day; Saudi Arabia increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 10.086 million barrels per day. Geopolitical events affected supply, such as the explosion of the oil pipeline in Oaxaca, Mexico, and the attack on a refinery in Volgograd, Russia. The Trump administration discussed seizing Iranian oil tankers, which may further restrict Iranian exports [3]. - **Demand Side**: The OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively, expecting air travel and road traffic to support demand, with the depreciation of the US dollar providing additional support. Actual demand data showed that from February 6 to February 11, 2026, the implied demand for EIA distillate fuel oil production in the US for the week ending February 6 dropped to 5.3961 million barrels per day, a significant decline from the previous value of 5.8043 million barrels per day, reflecting short - term pressure on refined oil demand. India's shift to purchasing US and Venezuelan crude oil may boost regional demand, but overall demand is constrained by refinery disturbances [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Inventory data decreased slightly. From February 6 to February 11, 2026, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.1 million barrels, a decline from the previous value of 21.4 million barrels. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 3,464,000 barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons, indicating a relief of local inventory pressure. However, the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons, indicating inventory accumulation of downstream products [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. On the supply side, OPEC+ production continues to contract, and geopolitical events such as the pipeline explosion in Mexico and the attack on a refinery in Russia intensify supply uncertainty, supporting price increases. On the demand side, although supported by global growth forecasts, the significant decline in US distillate fuel oil demand and the accumulation of refined oil inventories bring downward pressure. The overall inventory decreased slightly, but the limited decline in strategic reserves restricts the price breakthrough space. Considering the changes in supply, demand, and inventory, the slight increase in the SC crude oil main contract reflects the market's concern about supply tightness, but the risk of weak demand suppresses the increase. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - indicators such as the US non - farm payroll data on February 11, 2026, and China's PPI on demand expectations [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Future PX and PTA prices may rise moderately, supported by cost and expected demand improvement [61] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Daily Market Summary 1. PTA & PX - On February 11, the PX main contract closed at 7,378.0 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -365.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 5,260.0 yuan/ton, up 0.57%, with a basis of -100.0 yuan/ton [2] - On February 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 69.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 64.2 US dollars/barrel [2] - The PX plant operating rate is expected to remain high, but planned maintenance of some plants may cause short - term supply tightness; the PTA operating rate also remains high, but the risk of unexpected plant shutdowns increases [2] - The polyester operating rate is expected to seasonally recover, driven by the restocking demand of the textile industry, and the improving volume of the Light Textile City will boost PTA consumption [2] - PTA factory inventory is at a neutral level, with relatively limited inventory pressure, providing a buffer for prices [3] 2. Polyester - On February 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,654.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,590.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of -64.0 yuan/ton [4] - The trading volume of the China Light Textile City (MA15) shows a downward trend, reflecting weakening downstream textile demand. However, the inventory days of polyester filament (DTY, POY, FDY) and short - fiber are all lower than the five - year average, providing short - term support [4] II. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 11, the PTA factory load rate was 75.86%, the polyester factory load rate was 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 63.43%, all unchanged from the previous day [5] III. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 1. Macroeconomic Dynamics - On February 11, Fed's Harker said the economic outlook is good, inflation is still high, and there is no urgent need to cut interest rates this year; Logan was "cautiously optimistic" about the current interest - rate policy and more worried about inflation [6] - On February 10, Fed's Bostic said he began to see doubts about the confidence in the US dollar [6] 2. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On February 9, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 551.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%, with 460.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric and 89.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric [7] IV. Inference of Future Price Trends - **Supply Side**: PX plant operating rate may remain high, but recent price increases indicate supply may tighten due to planned plant maintenance. PTA operating rate is also high, but unexpected plant shutdowns may affect short - term supply [57] - **Demand Side**: Polyester operating rate is expected to increase, driven by the seasonal recovery of the textile industry, and the increasing trading volume of the Light Textile City will boost PTA demand [57] - **Inventory Side**: PTA factory inventory may be at a neutral level, with little inventory pressure, supporting prices [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand structure of pure benzene shows marginal improvement, but price increase needs further drivers due to high inventory. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has stabilized and rebounded, and the import volume has increased slightly. Downstream demand has improved to some extent [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of styrene is still improving marginally. The lowest point of domestic styrene plant operation may have passed, and the supply is gradually recovering. Demand shows a differentiated performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Price**: On February 11, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.32% at 7,497 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed up 1.25% at 6,090 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On February 11, Brent crude oil closed at $64.0 per barrel (-$0.4 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $68.8 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,090 yuan/ton (+755 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 30.5 tons (+0 tons), remaining flat. The inventory of styrene at East China ports was 10.9 tons (+0.8 tons), showing slow accumulation [2]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream of pure benzene changed little, with only the operating rate of phenol slightly dropping to 86.0%. The downstream of styrene entered the off - season. The operation of PS and ABS decreased slightly, while the operation of EPS increased slightly, and the overall operation of hard plastics weakened [2]. 3.1.2 Views - **Pure benzene**: The port inventory of pure benzene at the beginning of the week remained at a relatively high level, suppressing the market. The supply is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand has improved, but price increase is restricted by high inventory [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the market is worried about the excessive return of supply. The port inventory decreased slightly at the beginning of the week, and demand shows a differentiated performance [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract increased by 0.32% from 7,473.0 yuan/ton on February 10 to 7,497.0 yuan/ton on February 11; spot price decreased by 0.91% from 7,678.0 yuan/ton to 7,608.0 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 43.90% [5]. - The main contract of pure benzene futures increased by 1.49%, the East China price increased by 1.25%, and prices in South Korea, the US and CFR China also rose [5]. - The difference between domestic pure benzene profit and CFR decreased by 5.88%, and the difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene increased by 55.56% [5]. 3.2.2 Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production increased by 0.98% from 34.8 tons in January 30 to 35. tons on February 6, and pure benzene production increased by 3.29% from 42.9 tons to 44.3 tons [6]. - The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 7.95% from 10.1 tons to 10.9 tons, and the national port inventory of pure benzene remained unchanged at 30.5 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate - Among the downstream of pure benzene, the operating rate of styrene increased by 0.68%, that of caprolactam decreased by 0.41%, that of phenol decreased by 2.29%, and that of aniline increased by 0.51% [7]. - Among the downstream of styrene, the operating rate of EPS increased by 2.98%, that of ABS decreased by 1.70%, and that of PS decreased by 0.40% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - Ukraine reported that a bus in Dnipro was attacked by Russia, resulting in 15 deaths and 7 injuries [8]. - The US PPI in December increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [8]. - The total number of US oil rigs this week was 411, the same as the previous value [8]. - Trump hinted that India would buy oil from Venezuela [8]. - The southeastern coast of the US suffered the worst snowstorm and storm surge in decades [8]. - The Iranian foreign minister said he was still confident of reaching a nuclear deal with the US [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price difference, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][12][19][23][25][28][29]

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

Copper Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 102,000 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the spot premium/discount widening. The discount of premium copper deepened to -25 yuan/ton, that of flat copper to -70 yuan/ton, and that of wet-process copper to -130 yuan/ton. The LME (0-3) discount remained at -76.1 dollars/ton [1][35]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market trading was light, and the position volume shrank significantly. On February 10, the LME position decreased by 1,683 lots to 325,291 lots, while the SHFE inventory increased to 192,100 tons. The trading volume contracted due to the completion of downstream enterprises' stockpiling and logistics restrictions, weakening overall market liquidity [1][37]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, Codelco's copper production in Chile increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 181,400 tons, but Escondida's output decreased by 16.5% to 111,500 tons, and Collahuasi's output decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons. North American copper mine projects are expanding. Supported by Chinese policies, the smelting end saw an increase in the arrival of goods due to the opening of the import window, resulting in an overall loose supply [2][40]. - **Demand Side**: The demand in the power sector was strong, but the traditional sectors were weak. The home appliance, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were affected by the Spring Festival. Overall, demand was differentiated, showing a seasonal decline before the festival [2][44]. - **Inventory Side**: Global inventories continued to accumulate. On February 11, 2026, the LME inventory increased to 178,897 tons, the SHFE inventory to 192,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory to 591,459 short tons. The inventory in the United States increased fivefold to 534,000 metric tons, intensifying the tightness of the circulable supply, but the increase in exchange inventories alleviated the pressure [2][41]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The driving factors include the accumulation of inventories on the supply side alleviating the tightness, but the limited increase in North American projects. On the demand side, the power investment support and the post - festival restocking expectation offset the weakness in home appliances. The macro sentiment is neutral to optimistic (China's CPI rose moderately by 0.2%, and the enhanced risk appetite pushed up the LME price). The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 102,000 yuan/ton [3][47].

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,938 yuan/ton to 3,975 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase The basis (spot price - futures price) widened from -318 yuan/ton to -325 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper futures premium [2][34] - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract increased significantly by 31.39%, from 207,474 lots to 272,604 lots, while the open interest decreased by 2.55%, from 439,988 lots to 428,779 lots [2][35] Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate dropped 3.17 percentage points to 61.71%, mainly due to a 4.99 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based operating rate to 63.4%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 52.53% Profits from various production processes generally deteriorated, with oil - based production profits dropping significantly, indicating increased raw material cost pressure and a greater risk of supply contraction [2][38] - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained stable at 63.43%, showing that overall demand had no significant change, indicating some resilience in terminal consumption but a lack of growth momentum [3][39] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased 4.24% to 935,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly by 0.88% to 450,000 tons The overall inventory accumulation highlighted the pressure of oversupply, with more arrivals at the ports and insufficient demand digestion [3][39] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price may face medium - term downward pressure The short - term rise in futures prices is driven by market sentiment and active trading, and the decline in the supply - side operating rate and profit deterioration may continue to support high prices However, continuous inventory accumulation, lack of demand growth, and deep losses in cost - side profits will limit the upside space If inventory reduction is less than expected or cost pressure intensifies, prices may turn weak for adjustment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the expectations for PX and PTA have been realized, and a cautious approach should be taken as the market returns to reality before the holiday. Overall, PX prices may continue to decline, while PTA may stabilize or experience a slight rebound due to improving demand [1][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On February 5th, the PX main contract closed at 7,200.0 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -203.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5,144.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The cost side shows that the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.95 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 64.47 US dollars/barrel. The demand side indicates that the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 7.702 million meters [3]. - **Supply - side**: PX supply is expected to remain loose, with limited device maintenance plans and continuous supply pressure. For PTA, there are no obvious disturbance signals in the operating rate, the device operates stably, but price adjustments and basis narrowing indicate a possible marginal increase in supply. The overall supply environment is neutral, with no significant contraction signs [4]. - **Demand - side**: Polyester demand shows a warming trend. The operating rate is expected to benefit from the downstream recovery. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City has exceeded the recent average, reflecting the recovery of terminal textile orders, which may boost polyester consumption and support PTA demand. The improvement on the demand side will partially buffer the downward pressure on costs and turn the market sentiment of PTA positive [4]. - **Inventory - side**: PTA factory inventory may be in a moderate destocking stage. After the current price adjustment, the basis has strengthened, indicating the resilience of spot demand and controllable inventory pressure. If the demand side continues to improve, inventory is expected to be further digested, providing bottom support for prices [4]. - **Polyester**: On February 5th, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,564.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,555.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of -9.0 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) is stable in the range of 7.7 - 7.76 million meters, showing stable but no significant growth in terminal demand. The inventory of various polyester products is lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory of DTY and POY has decreased week - on - week, reflecting low inventory pressure. Low inventory and stable demand may support prices, but the risks of increased supply and weak demand may limit the upside space [4][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.32%, the trading volume decreased by 7.26%, and the open interest decreased by 4.28%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.14%. The PX basis increased by 32.11% [6]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume decreased by 17.03%, and the open interest decreased by 1.47%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 108.82%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.45%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 166.67%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 10.71%, and the import profit decreased by 0.65% [6]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.06%, the trading volume increased by 62.58%, and the open interest increased by 100.10%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.30%. The PF basis decreased by 160.00%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45.00%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 89.29% [6]. - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, while the prices of CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged. The processing spreads of most products remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [6][7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On February 5th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Department of Labor resumed normal full - scale operation on February 4th, non - farm payrolls will be released on February 11th, and CPI data will be released on February 13th. On the same day, an expert seminar on the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Gold Industry (Discussion Draft)" was held in Beijing. On February 4th, Federal Reserve officials made statements about interest - rate cuts and inflation control [7][8]. - **Supply - and - demand - demand**: On February 5th, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.69%, with 6.38 million meters of long - fiber fabric transactions and 1.82 million meters of short - fiber fabric transactions [9]. 3.4 Future Price Trend Judgment - **Supply - side**: PX supply may remain loose, with stable operating rates and no major device changes assumed. PTA supply shows that the devices are operating normally, and there are no significant changes in the operating rate [43][44][52]. - **Demand - side**: There are significant signs of improvement in polyester demand. The increase in the transaction volume of the Light Textile City indicates the recovery of downstream demand, which may drive PTA consumption [38][44][53]. - **Inventory - side**: PTA factory inventory may be relatively balanced. After the price adjustment, it may attract restocking demand, and the inventory pressure is limited [44][54].

原油供需宽松抑制价格反弹 一、日度市场总结 库存端 ：2026年2月5日仓单数据显示，中质含硫原油期货仓单报3464000 桶，环比持平；其他如燃料油和石油沥青仓单也维持稳定，表明美国库欣 及商业原油库存、OECD库存无显著变化。 价格走势判断 原油价格预计维持低位震荡格局，短期可能继续下探。原因在于供给端宽 松：OPEC产量下滑被土耳其等新增供给潜力抵消，沙特降价凸显供应过 剩，闲置产能充足削弱地缘风险影响；需求端疲软：壳牌业绩不佳和印尼 生物燃料转型暗示成品油需求不足，炼厂利润承压；库存端稳定但未缓解 过剩压力。供需整体宽松将抑制价格反弹，SC原油受价差走强支撑但上行 空间有限。 1/14 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年2月5日，SC原油主力合约价格报463.5元/桶，较 前一日（2026年2月4日）的462.4元/桶小幅走高1.1元，涨幅0.24%，盘中 走势显示从低位反弹。WTI和Brent原油期货价格均维持稳定，分别报64.47 美元/桶和68.95美元/桶，无变化。价差方面，SC-Brent价差为-2.17美元/ 桶，较前一日-2.3美元/桶走强0. ...