一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ： 2026-02-25数据显示，SC主力期货价格（488.3元/桶）较前一日（493.3 元/桶）小幅回落5.0元，跌幅1.01%，盘中走势呈现波动。WTI主力合约 （66.08美元/桶）和Brent主力合约（71.01美元/桶）均维持稳定，无变 化。价差方面，SC-Brent价差（0.1美元/桶）较前一日（0.64美元/桶）大 幅走弱0.54美元，跌幅84.38%；SC-WTI价差（5.03美元/桶）较前一日 （5.57美元/桶）走弱0.54美元，跌幅9.69%；Brent-WTI价差（4.93美元/ 桶）维持稳定。SC连续-连3价差（-1.3元/桶）较前一日（1.2元/桶）显著 走弱2.5元，跌幅208.33%，反映近远月结构承压。 美国EIA商业原油超大幅累库，油价承压下行 原油价格短期或于高位承压。供给端中东国家（沙特、伊朗、伊拉克）增 产和出口扩张对价格构成下行压力。需求端相对稳定，缺乏强劲驱动。整 体产业链供给增加主导，库存端美国累库信号明显，若地缘冲突升级，价 格有上行风险；否则，供给增量可能推动适度回调。 李英杰 从业编号：F031 ...

一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：2 月 25 日苯乙烯主连跌 1.19%，报收 7578 元/吨；纯苯主连 收跌 0.76%，报 6130 元/吨。 能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 2 月 26 日 星期四 低库存支撑与供应修复预期并存 成本：2 月 25 日布油主力收盘 65.6 美元/桶（-0.7 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 70.6 美元/桶（-0.5 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6130 元/吨（-40 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 30.5 万吨（+0 万吨），库存持 平。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 10.9 万吨（+0.8 万吨），库存缓慢累 库。 需求：纯苯下游整体开工上行。苯乙烯下游进入淡季，除 ABS 外开工 小幅下滑。 （2）观点 纯苯：成本端在地缘扰动下维持韧性，原油偏强对纯苯形成阶段性托底。 供应方面，国内装置负荷持续修复，加氢苯同步提产，叠加进口资源回 流，整体供给边际趋松，港口库存虽有波动但仍处相对高位。需求端分化 延续，苯乙烯开工回升带来一定增量消耗，酚酮、苯胺及己二酸维持高负 荷，对纯苯刚需支撑尚可 ...

供需局面维持稳定，春节期间全球市场窄幅波动 主力合约与基差 ：SHFE主力合约价格在2026年2月24日为101920元/吨，较 春节前小幅上扬1230元/吨，涨幅1.22%。基差方面，现货升贴水走强：升 水铜从2月13日的25元/吨大幅走高至2月24日的320元/吨；平水铜从-25元/ 吨升至170元/吨；湿法铜从-70元/吨升至130元/吨。LME(0-3)贴水在2月23 日为-83.6美元/吨，较前期贴水收窄。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓在2月23日增加327手至317849手，持仓量略有扩 大。SHFE仓单在2月24日增加80409吨至277089吨，交割量达134600吨。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供应压力显著增加，主要因进口与国产货源集中到货，以及持货 商受交割驱动积极入库。SMM报告显示，2月24日境内电解铜库存累库15.49 万吨至50.85万吨，创五年新高。全球铜库存升至约102万吨，为近23年最 高水平，自2025年9月起几乎翻倍，部分受关税不确定性和中国季节性需求 放缓影响。长期看，Vale计划2026-2030年投资35亿美元于铜项目，但短期 供给宽松。 需求端 ：需求持续疲 ...

美国API商业原油大幅累库，油价高位震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：截至2026-02-24，SC原油期货价格较02-13上涨32.6元 至493.3元/桶，涨幅7.08%，走势整体走高；WTI期货价格上扬3.48美元至 66.29美元/桶，涨幅5.54%；Brent期货价格走高3.4美元至71.13美元/桶， 涨幅5.02%。价差方面，SC-Brent从02-13的-1.07美元/桶走强至0.52美元/ 桶，涨幅148.6%，显示SC相对Brent溢价扩大；SC-WTI从3.85美元/桶扩大 至5.36美元/桶，涨幅39.22%，价差走强；Brent-WTI从4.92美元/桶小幅回 落至4.84美元/桶，跌幅1.63%，价差略微收窄；SC连续-连3价差从-7.3元/ 桶大幅上扬至1.2元/桶，涨幅116.44%，近月合约相对走强。 持仓与成交 ：02月24日上期所原油期货仓单减少907000桶，环比减少，反 映库存压力缓解或需求增强。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：02月25日俄罗斯国家石油运输公司因无人机袭击减少原油日接收 量25万桶，供应受限；伊拉克2月石油出口 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 出口支撑与装置重启博弈，芳烃偏强震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：2 月 24 日苯乙烯期货报收 7669 元/吨；纯苯期货报收 6199 元/吨。 成本：2 月 24 日布油主力收盘 62.8 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），WTI 原 油主力合约收盘 67.5 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5990 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 30.5 万吨（+0 万吨），库存持 平。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 10.9 万吨（+0.8 万吨），库存缓慢累 库。 需求：纯苯下游整体开工上行。苯乙烯下游进入淡季，除 ABS 外开工 小幅下滑。 （2）观点 纯苯：原油受地缘局势扰动维持偏强，成本端对芳烃链条形成支撑。纯苯 供应端开工持续回升，进口资源自低位修复，港口库存虽有波动但整体 仍处高位区间，基本面压力尚未完全缓解。需求端呈现结构分化特征，苯 乙烯开工回升带动刚需改善，酚酮、苯胺及己二酸维持高负荷运行，对纯 苯形成稳定消耗；己内酰胺链条表现偏弱，对需求增量贡献 ...

春节需求预期持续改善，碳酸锂节后积极上行 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026-02-24，碳酸锂主力合约价格报164120元/吨，较 春节前上涨11480元/吨，涨幅7.52%。同期基差从-8840元/吨扩大至-20320 元/吨，基差走弱。 持仓与成交 ：2026-02-24，主力合约持仓量增至365180手，较春节前增加 22954手，增幅6.71%，持仓量扩大。同期成交量减少85827手，降幅 28.59%，成交量收缩。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：2026-02-13碳酸锂产能利用率为85.72%，环比下降1.42个百分 点；锂云母精矿价格从7900元/吨升至8400元/吨，涨幅6.33%，而锂辉石精 矿价格从15,725元/吨微降至15690元/吨，降幅0.22%，原料成本总体稳 定。海外锂矿报价回暖，但现货流通僵持，盐厂执行长协订单为主，开工 率受2月集中检修影响，供应端整体偏紧。 需求端 ：新能源车需求支撑增强，但下游采购偏弱，多数企业已完成节前 备货。正极材料如动力型三元材料价格从176400元/吨升至179600元/吨， 涨幅1.81%，动力型磷 ...

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased from 3,935.0 yuan/ton on February 12, 2026, to 3,899.0 yuan/ton on February 13, 2026, a drop of 36.0 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,605.0 yuan/ton to 3,560.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton or 1.25%. The basis (spot minus futures) was -339 yuan/ton, with the negative value deepening, indicating an expanding discount of the spot market relative to the futures [1]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 437,707 lots to 430,898 lots, a reduction of 6,809 lots or 1.56%. The trading volume declined from 200,272 lots to 189,398 lots, a decrease of 10,874 lots or 5.43%. Both open interest and trading volume decreased, suggesting a weakening short - term speculative sentiment and an increase in market wait - and - see atmosphere [1]. *** Analysis of Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate at 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate at 58.64%, showing no changes. However, the profits from oil - based, coal - based, and natural - gas - based production all declined significantly. For example, the profit from ethylene - SD oxidation method dropped from - 755.0 yuan/ton to - 950.7 yuan/ton, the coal - based profit decreased from - 50.53 yuan/ton to - 130.13 yuan/ton, and the natural - gas - based profit fell from 350.0 yuan/ton to 280.0 yuan/ton. Despite the profit decline, the operating rate remained unchanged, indicating a rigid supply [1]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no changes. This indicates that the terminal demand is stable but has not improved. With the high - level stability of polyester and loom loads, the demand side provides limited support and does not drive up prices [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 897,000 tons to 935,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory increased, reflecting an increase in arriving goods or insufficient shipments. The supply - demand pattern remains loose [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The price of ethylene glycol is likely to continue to face pressure, with a possible low - level oscillation or further decline. The reasons are as follows: The profits of ethylene glycol production have been compressed, and all types of production methods have seen a decline in profits, which may be due to rising raw material costs or falling product prices. Although there is no direct data on the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, the profit decline implies that costs may have increased or product prices have decreased. The downstream demand remains stable, but the supply is rigid, and the port inventory has increased, putting greater pressure on the market [31][34].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 2 月 24 日 星期二 成本扰动增强，供需分化下芳烃震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 市场有风险，入市需谨慎！ （1）基本面 价格：2 月 24 日苯乙烯现货报价收平，报 7594 元/吨；华东纯苯现 货收平，报 5990 元/吨。 成本：2 月 24 日布油主力收盘 62.8 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），WTI 原 油主力合约收盘 67.5 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5990 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 30.5 万吨（+0 万吨），库存持 平。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 10.9 万吨（+0.8 万吨），库存缓慢累 库。 需求：纯苯下游整体开工上行。苯乙烯下游进入淡季，除 ABS 外开工 小幅下滑。 （2）观点 纯苯：原油端受地缘政治扰动影响偏强运行，成本支撑阶段性增强，对纯 苯价格形成一 ...

地缘冲突预期推升油价，节后PX、TA有上涨动能 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 库存端对PTA价格提供一定支撑，PTA工厂库存可能处于低位，基差正值暗 示库存消化良好，供需紧平衡状态可能抑制下行空间；PX库存虽未直接提 及，但供应增加预期可能推升库存水平，加剧价格回调压力。整体看，低 库存环境可能为PTA价格提供韧性，而PX库存累积风险则需警惕。 2. 聚酯 02月13日，短纤主力合约收6628.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.09%。华东 市场现货价为6590.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为-38.0元/吨。 1. PTA&PX 02月13日，PX 主力合约收7236.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.04%，基差 为-87.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收5204.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.31%， 基差为16.0元/吨。 成本端，02月13日，布油主力合约收盘67.55美元/桶。WTI收62.91美元/ 桶。 供给端： 原油价格上行在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks. The supply is relatively stable or slightly increasing, the demand is significantly weakened due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the inventory is continuously accumulating [3][51][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 12, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 102,770 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the premium copper's discount deepening to - 45 yuan/ton, the flat - water copper maintaining a - 70 yuan/ton discount, and the wet - process copper's discount slightly narrowing to - 120 yuan/ton. The LME(0 - 3) discount remained at - 76.01 US dollars/ton [1][36]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position volume slightly increased, with the LME copper position increasing by 893 lots to 326,184 lots on February 11, 2026. The trading volume significantly shrank as the Spring Festival holiday approached, and the market participation decreased [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply is relatively stable but has potential disturbances. South America may become a new center for the critical mineral supply chain, and CopperTech Metal Company is applying new technologies to improve the exploration efficiency of the Konkola mine. However, the termination of the merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore may affect global copper resource competition. The domestic anode copper operating rate dropped by 27.90 percentage points to 38.98% due to the Spring Festival holiday, and smelting activities slowed down [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand significantly weakened, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday. New orders in the downstream power, construction, and automotive fields cooled down, the brass rod operating rate decreased by 6.09 percentage points to 40.31%, and the enameled wire operating rate dropped by 10.27 percentage points to 73.53%. The markets in Shandong and North China entered the holiday state, logistics was suspended, and the procurement demand was weak, with the recycled copper rod quotation discount widening to 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory continued to accumulate, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation. The LME inventory increased to 187,179 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased to 196,650 tons. There was a significant increase in inventory in Shanghai due to the arrival of goods during the opening of the import window and the weakening demand [2]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side changes show that short - term smelting activities slow down due to the Spring Festival, but inventory accumulation and new technology applications may relieve the tightness. The demand - side changes indicate that the downstream demand remains weak during the holiday, and it will take time for post - holiday resumption of work, resulting in a lag in demand recovery. From the perspective of macro sentiment, supply - chain adjustments provide medium - to - long - term support, but the market sentiment is cautious during the holiday [3].