乙二醇无利好支撑，估值下行趋势未止 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货合约价格从3627.0元/吨上涨至3651.0 元/吨，涨幅0.66%，呈现连续小幅上行趋势；华东市场现货价格从3600.0 元/吨上涨至3630.0元/吨，涨幅0.83%。基差（现货减期货）从-27.0元/吨 收窄至-21.0元/吨，显示期货升水幅度减小。利润方面，乙烯制各工艺利 润普遍改善，如SD氧化法亏损收窄97.0元/吨至-1031.92元/吨，而煤制利 润恶化65.0元/吨至-98.20元/吨，天然气制利润下降390.0元/吨至810.0 元/吨，油田伴生气制利润转为亏损82.0元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交从186457.0手减少至161834.0手，降幅 13.21%；持仓从235410.0手减少至202510.0手，降幅13.98%，表明市场交 易活跃度和资金参与度下降。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在61.13%，煤制开工率持稳于49.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market faces significant supply - demand pressures. Domestically, port inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Overseas, there's a possibility of repair in the US - South Korea price difference. Demand is weak, and although supply - side reduction plans and decreasing imports may relieve inventory pressure, the market remains under pressure, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The styrene market maintains a pattern of low operation and steady inventory reduction. Port inventories are falling, but weak demand lacks upward momentum. With the approaching of December, the market enters the off - season, and inventory pressure still exists. Supply - side changes have limited impact due to unremarkable demand recovery [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - **Price**: On December 15, the styrene main contract closed up 0.70% at 6,487 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.52% at 5,448 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,315 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On December 15, Brent crude closed at $57.4 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel), and WTI crude closed at $61.1 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (-1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+3.6 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene weekly output was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 68.3% (-0.6%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 53.8% (-2.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 70.5% (+2.2%), and PS capacity utilization was 58.3% (-0.7%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market will oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream operation recovery and import arrivals, and the market will seek a balance between inventory and supply [2]. - **Styrene**: The market lacks upward momentum due to weak demand, and supply - side changes have limited impact [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract increased 0.70% from December 12 to December 15, and the spot price increased 0.06%. Pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.52%, and the East China spot price increased 0.28% [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, Chinese styrene output increased 2.32%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.70%. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased 36.59% [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased 1.56%, and that of caprolactam decreased 7.53%. Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased 1.61%, ABS decreased 2.90%, and PS increased 1.40% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations. Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027. Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned economic weakness and the need for interest - rate cuts. The US EIA crude inventory in the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of styrene and pure benzene prices, output, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [11][20][28][29]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Energy Chemicals - Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report by Tonghui Futures, dated December 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Summary Fundamentals - On December 11, the styrene main contract closed up 0.56% at 6,505 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.13% at 5,447 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of Brent crude on December 11 was $58.5/barrel (+$0.2/barrel), WTI crude main contract closed at $62.2/barrel (+$0.3/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene port inventory was 16.1 tons (-0.3 tons), a 7.5% de - stocking month - on - month, still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 22.4 tons (+6.0 tons), a 36.6% inventory build month - on - month [2] - Styrene production and supply had a slight month - on - month fluctuation. Current weekly styrene output was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 68.9% (+1.6%) [2] - The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 56.4% (+1.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 68.3% (-2.9%), and PS capacity utilization was 59.0% (+1.4%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: In the short term, domestic pure benzene is under strong real - world pressure. Concentrated arrivals have led to a rapid build - up of port inventory, and the market's perception of supply - side pressure continues to rise. Overseas, the tightest period for gasoline has passed, but the recovery of cracking spreads is still lagging. The spreads in the US, Japan, and South Korea still have room to correct. The market is watching whether South Korean supplies will continue to be diverted to the US. Downstream industries are in the off - season, with weak pick - up. Styrene maintains low - load operation during maintenance; CPL operation has dropped to the lowest level of the year; Phenol operation has rebounded, while aniline and adipic acid continue to fluctuate within a range. Overall, the structure of "accelerated inventory build + weak demand" on the pure benzene side has not improved significantly, and the weak real - world characteristics will continue to dominate the short - term market [2][3] - Styrene: The styrene basis remains firm, but the weak fundamental pattern has not changed. The supply side maintains low - level operation, and port inventory continues to decline; downstream buying interest is okay, but overall inventory - holding enthusiasm is limited in the off - season. The downstream chain still shows a differentiated pattern: EPS operation has slightly rebounded but has a heavy inventory burden; ABS operation continues to decline due to high finished - product inventory; PS operation continues its seasonal rebound, and inventory pressure is relatively relieved. The recent rise in styrene prices has compressed downstream profits, increasing the risk of negative feedback. Looking ahead to December, the output of new plants and the early return of some maintenance plants may limit the extent of de - stocking; at the same time, upstream pure benzene faces the risk of over - inventory, exerting significant pressure on the cost side. Overall, the structure of "weak demand, poor profits, increasing inventory build expectations, and loose supply in the mid - and upstream" of styrene remains unchanged. Against the background of weak crude oil, the price ceiling is restricted, and the subsequent price center may continue to move down [3] Group 3: Industry Data Monitoring Prices | Data Indicator | 2025/12/10 | 2025/12/11 |涨跌幅 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,469.0 | 6,505.0 | 0.56% | | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,770.0 | 6,770.0 | 0.00% | | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,440.0 | 5,447.0 | 0.13% | | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,310.0 | 5,310.0 | 0.00% | | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | 663.6 | 660.5 | - 0.47% | | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | 846.2 | 846.2 | 0.00% | | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | 668.3 | 666.1 | - 0.32% | | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Spread | - 402.6 | - 379.1 | 5.83% | | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Spread | 10.0 | 60.0 | 500.00% | | | Brent Crude | 58.3 | 58.5 | 0.36% | | | WTI Crude | 61.9 | 62.2 | 0.44% | | | Naphtha | 7,066.5 | 7,066.5 | 0.00% | | [5] Production and Inventory | Data Indicator | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/05 |涨跌幅 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 33.5 | 34.2 | 2.32% | | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 44.6 | 43.9 | - 1.70% | | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 16.4 | 16.1 | - 2.19% | | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 19.0 | 17.6 | - 7.49% | | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 16.4 | 22.4 | 36.59% | | [6] Capacity Utilization | Capacity Utilization | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/05 |涨跌 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 67.3 | 68.9 | 1.56 | | | Caprolactam | 86.7 | 79.2 | - 7.53 | | | Phenol | 81.2 | 81.7 | 0.57 | | | Aniline | 77.2 | 77.2 | 0.04 | | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 54.7 | 56.4 | 1.61 | | | ABS | 71.2 | 68.3 | - 2.90 | | | PS | 57.6 | 59.0 | 1.40 | | [7] Group 4: Industry News - Canada provides an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8] - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8] - Fitch lowers its oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027, reflecting market oversupply [8] - Despite US pressure, Venezuela's daily oil exports exceeded 900,000 barrels in November [8] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that there are signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and that interest rate cuts are needed [8] - For the week ending November 28, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 574,000 barrels (previous value: 2.774 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels (previous value: 498,000 barrels) [8] Group 5: Industry Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related products such as caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [13][18][22][28]

铜高位延续强势，区域性库存紧张提供下方支撑 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 库存端 ：库存整体小幅累积，12月11日LME库存增至31461吨，较前一日上 升8.74%；SHFE库存增至165850吨，上升0.53%；COMEX库存12月10日增至 445166短吨，但交易所库存仍处相对低位，基本面提供支撑。 价格走势判断 未来1-2周铜期货价格预计高位宽幅震荡。供给端Codelco产量下降加剧供 应紧张，但新矿项目长期缓解压力；需求端储能增长部分抵消消费疲软， 但地产拖累和下游观望抑制上行空间；宏观情绪波动下，基本面低库存支 撑限制回调幅度。铜价区间预计在11400-11700美元/吨。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 主力合约与基差 ：12月11日SHFE主力合约价格小幅走高至92550元/吨，较 前一日上涨670元/吨（+0.73%）；LME价格12月10日报11559.5美元/吨。基 差方面，现货升水铜12月11日回落至45元/吨，较前一日下降35元/吨，平 水铜和湿法 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and there is a risk of an oil price rebound. Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the rebound height is limited. The supply side is affected by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical events, while the demand side is supported by the postponement of China's demand peak and the growth of chemical demand. The inventory side shows a tight market balance [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 439.7 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.9% from the previous day's 443.7 yuan per barrel. The WTI crude oil price remained at 58.96 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent crude oil price remained at 62.52 US dollars per barrel, showing short - term stability. The SC - Brent spread weakened by 175.86%, the SC - WTI spread weakened by 13.25%, the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.56 US dollars per barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread weakened by 65.0% [1][79]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: Position and trading volume data were not provided [80]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Russia's crude oil deliveries to India and China have declined for three consecutive weeks due to new US sanctions. OPEC+ production increased slightly in November, and Algeria's production also increased. Kazakhstan's production plan was on schedule, but the Caspian pipeline attack caused a short - term supply interruption of about 480,000 tons. Overall, supply is affected by geopolitical events, but OPEC+ production increases dominate a small expansion [2][8][81]. - **Demand Side**: According to the report of the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute on December 11, China's oil demand peak is expected to be postponed to 2040, and the peak level is higher than previously predicted. By 2050, the demand for chemical products and new materials will increase by 57% to 290 million tons, and the demand for refined oil products such as jet fuel will continue to grow [2][10][81]. - **Inventory Side**: From the week ending December 5, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 125.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.4%. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 200,000 barrels to 411.9 million barrels. OPEC monthly report shows that OECD oil inventories decreased by 32 million barrels to 2.83 billion barrels in October. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4040 tons [3][11][81]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level. On the supply side, OPEC+ production increases and some countries' production increases are offset by supply interruptions caused by the attack in Kazakhstan. On the demand side, the postponement of China's demand peak and the growth of chemical demand support long - term demand. On the inventory side, the decline in OECD inventories shows a tight market balance [82]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On December 11, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price decreased slightly, while the WTI and Brent prices decreased. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3 weakened, and the Brent - WTI spread increased slightly. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, strategic reserves increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased slightly [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On December 11, 2025, the futures prices of FU and LU decreased, and the prices of some fuel oil spot and paper goods also decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased. Singapore fuel oil inventories increased, and some US distillate inventories increased while others decreased [7]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On December 11, Algeria's crude oil production in November increased by 10,000 barrels per day to 965,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in November was 43.06 million barrels, an increase of 43,000 barrels compared to October. Russia's energy ministry expects its 2025 oil production to remain at the 2024 level. Kazakhstan's 2025 oil production plan will be achieved as scheduled, but the Caspian pipeline attack caused a loss of 480,000 tons [8][9]. - **Demand**: The CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute predicts that China's oil demand will peak between 2025 and 2030, and the peak will be postponed to 2040 with a higher level. By 2050, the demand for chemicals and new materials will increase by 57% to 290 million tons, and the demand for chemical products, raw materials, and jet fuel will continue to grow [10]. - **Inventory**: OPEC monthly report shows that OECD oil inventories decreased by 32 million barrels to 2.83 billion barrels in October. Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4040 tons. Singapore's fuel oil inventory data for the week ending December 10 will be released soon [11]. - **Market Information**: As of the 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased, while the main contract of SC crude oil decreased. The main contract of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) decreased [12].

Group 1: Report Core View - The Fed's interest rate cut sends a positive signal, and oil prices drive the rebound of PX and PTA [1] - The future price of PX may decline or remain weak due to falling oil prices and negative basis, while the price of PTA may be relatively strong due to improved demand and positive basis [56] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On December 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,746.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -81.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,616.0 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 14.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on December 10, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.12 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 58.39 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on December 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 7.98 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 7.4767 million meters [2] - The PX plant operating rate remains high. The 700,000 - ton NghiSon - Idemitsu plant in Vietnam reduced its load due to problems with the front - end plant in mid - November and is expected to resume operation as early as this weekend. The 2.2 million - ton Ningbo Yisheng PTA plant has been under maintenance for 5 weeks since November 20 [3] - Terminal Light Textile City trading volume increased slightly, polyester consumption sentiment strengthened, polyester operation maintained resilience, and terminal loom operation declined [4] Polyester - On December 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,114.0 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,275.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 161.0 yuan/ton [5] - The 15 - day moving average trading volume of the Light Textile City increased continuously (from 7.0213 million meters on December 1 to 7.4767 million meters on December 10), indicating a steady recovery in terminal demand. In terms of inventory, based on the data on December 4, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber are relatively low (6.38 days), while those of polyester filament such as POY (16.3 days), FDY (21.2 days), and DTY (24.3 days) are at a high level, which may indicate a risk of filament inventory overstock compared with the average of the past 5 years [5] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,746 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 391,674 lots, up 49.82%; the main contract open interest was 194,337 lots, up 3.32%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 832.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 807 US dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The PX basis was - 81 yuan/ton, up 29.57% [6] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,616 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 481,145 lots, up 4.19%; the main contract open interest was 608,290 lots, down 7.73%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 607 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The PTA basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 200.00%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, down 6.25%; the 5 - 9 spread was 46 yuan/ton, down 11.54%; the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 83.33%. The PTA import profit was - 639.94 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [6] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,114 yuan/ton, down 1.10% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 246,957 lots, up 39.30%; the main contract open interest was 209,819 lots, up 4.59%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,275 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The PF basis was 161 yuan/ton, up 49.07%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 50.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, down 13.64%; the 9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, up 26.47% [6] - Industrial chain prices: The Brent crude oil main contract was 62.52 US dollars/barrel, up 0.64%; the US crude oil main contract was 58.96 US dollars/barrel, up 0.98%; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 563 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of ethylene glycol was 3,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester chips was 5,580 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester bottle chips was 5,670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester POY was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester DTY was 7,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester FDY was 6,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Processing spreads: The naphtha processing spread was 88.69 US dollars/ton, down 1.25%; the PX processing spread was 269.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the PTA processing spread was 150.16 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; the polyester chip processing spread was 48.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester bottle chip processing spread was - 311.4 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber processing spread was 148.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester POY processing spread was 68.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester DTY processing spread was 68.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester FDY processing spread was - 151.4 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume was 7980,000 meters, up 6.83%; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.55 million meters, up 2.02%; the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.44 million meters, up 34.58% [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The PTA factory load rate was 75.86%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 89.42%, unchanged; the loom load rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 63.43%, unchanged [7] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 6.38 days, up 1.59%; the inventory days of polyester POY were 16.3 days, up 10.88%; the inventory days of polyester FDY were 21.2 days, up 4.43%; the inventory days of polyester DTY were 24.3 days, up 3.85% [7] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On December 10, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6%, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expected that the interest rate cut cycle might be over - On December 10, Hassett said the Fed had enough room to cut interest rates significantly and would make interest rate decisions based on his judgment - On December 10, the Thailand - Cambodia conflict continued, with 7 deaths and 20 injuries in Cambodia and 4 deaths and 68 casualties in Thailand - On December 10, British media reported that Trump started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairperson this week, and Hassett was leading. Officials also proposed the possibility of Hassett shortening his term - On December 9, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that Russia would restrict the export of gold bars from 2026 - On December 9, Hassett, the favorite to be the Fed chairperson, said that the future path should not be announced in advance and reiterated data dependence - On December 9, the General Administration of Customs announced that in November, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On December 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 7.98 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.55 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.44 million meters [9] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester staple fiber production and sales situation, polyester filament production and sales situation, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [10][12][14]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The copper market shows a complex situation with supply increasing and demand being divided. The regional shortage in the London market has pushed up the short - squeeze sentiment globally. The price of copper is expected to fluctuate slightly or move sideways in a low - range in the next one to two weeks due to the combined effects of supply, demand, and macro - economic uncertainties [4][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 10, the price of the SHFE main contract closed at 91,880 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The basis weakened with a general decline in spot premiums and discounts. For example, the premium copper was reported at 80 yuan/ton on December 10, down 80 yuan/ton compared to December 9; the flat - water copper was at - 10 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; and the wet - process copper was at - 50 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis dropped from 8.19 dollars/ton on December 4 to 0 dollars/ton [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On December 9, the LME position decreased slightly to 342,175 lots, 146 lots less than the previous day, indicating reduced market participation. Due to the high market wait - and - see sentiment caused by the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's economic outlook, the trading volume is expected to shrink [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The expected increase in mine output is seen as AngloAmerican and TeckResources' merger was approved on December 9, forming AngloTeck with an annual copper production of about 1.2 million tons. The smelting capacity has also improved as the slag - selection system of Dianzhong Non - ferrous has doubled its processing capacity. However, the recycled copper raw - material policy has led to production cuts in some Jiangxi enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate of the construction copper rod industry is less than 50% [2]. - **Demand Side**: The energy - storage sector has shown strong growth, with Samsung SDI signing a supply agreement worth over 2 trillion won for LFP batteries on December 10. SMM predicts that the global copper consumption in energy storage will increase by over 50% in 2025. The new - energy vehicle demand also provides support. But the construction sector has a significant negative impact, with the core downstream orders of construction copper rods decreasing by 3.9% year - on - year in 2025 and expected to drop by 6.2% in 2026 [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory continued to decrease, reaching 28,931 tons on December 10, down 600 tons from December 9. The SHFE inventory increased to 165,675 tons on December 10, up 1,125 tons from December 4. The COMEX inventory rose to 443,047 short tons, an increase of 3,537 short tons from December 4 [3]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is still a certain supply gap. The previous US tariff policy has led to a large amount of electrolytic copper flowing to the US market and locking up circulation, resulting in a continuous decrease in the LME copper inventory. The increase in speculative positions in the futures market has also raised the demand for delivery, and the regional shortage in the London market has pushed up the short - squeeze sentiment globally [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From 2025 - 12 - 04 to 2025 - 12 - 10, the spot price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 92,270 yuan/ton to 91,750 yuan/ton, a drop of 600 yuan/ton. The premiums and discounts generally declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis decreased from 8 dollars/ton to 0 dollars/ton. The SHFE price fluctuated slightly, and the LME price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 2.03%, the SHFE inventory increased, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 10, Anhui Xinhai achieved a key breakthrough in the production of ultra - fine copper conductors for new - energy vehicles and robots. Samsung SDI's US subsidiary signed a large - scale LFP battery supply agreement, which is expected to drive the growth of copper demand in the energy - storage sector. The brass rod orders at the end of the year are difficult to improve significantly due to the real - estate downturn and the weak recovery of some sectors. The demand for construction copper rods is expected to decline by 6.2% in 2026, and the overall copper rod output in 2026 is expected to drop by 3.5%. In 2025, the demand for construction copper rods decreased, and the industry's capacity utilization rate was less than 50% [7][8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][13].

乙二醇库存累积施压，无新进利好支撑 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从3691元/吨下跌至3682元/吨，跌 幅0.24%；华东现货价格从3680元/吨下跌至3665元/吨，跌幅0.41%。基差 （现货-期货）从-11元/吨扩大至-17元/吨，显示现货相对期货弱势加深。 利润方面，油制利润（如乙烯制-DOW化学法从-1086元/吨降至-1250元/ 吨）、煤制利润（从214.69元/吨降至-33.29元/吨）及天然气制利润（从 1400元/吨降至1200元/吨）均显著下降，反映原材料成本压力加剧。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量从216019手减少至186790手，降幅13.53%； 持仓量从294252手减少至276453手，降幅6.05%，表明市场参与度和活跃度 减弱，资金流出迹象明显。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在61.13%，油制开工率维持在71.18%，煤 制开工率保持在49.34%，均无变化，显示生产端供应稳定，无新增产能扰 动。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持在63.43%， 需求端整体平稳，但无显著提升信号，支撑力度有限。 库存端 ：华东 ...

I. Market Data Change Analysis 1. Main Contract and Basis On December 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan or 3.43% from 92,800 yuan/ton on December 9 The basis weakened from -500 yuan/ton to -3,680 yuan/ton, a change of -3,180 yuan [1][6][40]. 2. Position and Trading Volume The position of the main contract increased from 575,421 lots on December 9 to 605,453 lots on December 10, an increase of 30,032 lots or 5.22% The trading volume increased from 512,215 lots to 620,935 lots, an increase of 108,720 lots or 21.23%, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1][6][40]. II. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply Side As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 75.34%, the same as on November 28 The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at 8,930 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively Some new production lines are gradually being put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month-on-month The Chuanneng Power project reached its designed annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of concentrate at the end of August 2025, and the technological transformation project of Qinghai Jintai Lithium Industry aims to improve efficiency and strengthen the elasticity of the supply side [2][32][42]. 2. Demand Side On December 10, 2025, the price of power-type ternary materials slightly increased from 144,700 yuan/ton to 144,850 yuan/ton, while the price of power-type lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased from 39,095 yuan/ton to 39,085 yuan/ton The cell prices, such as the 523 cylindrical ternary cell, remained stable at 4.75 yuan/piece According to the Passenger Car Association, in November, new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6%, and wholesale sales were 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 7% It is expected that the sales volume in December will still be strong However, downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait-and-see attitude and mainly making rigid purchases Although the production schedules of cells and cathode materials are still at a high level, they have slightly declined month-on-month The energy storage market has strong supply and demand, but the supply is tight [2][8][42]. 3. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was 113,602 physical tons, a decrease of 2,366 tons or 2.04% from 115,968 tons on November 28 It is expected that the inventory reduction trend will continue in December, but the magnitude will be slower than in November, reflecting a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance [3][33][42]. III. Price Trend Judgment and Summary In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern The supply side is steadily increasing, with new production lines being put into operation and technological transformation projects enhancing production capacity elasticity, which may put pressure on prices The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but the month-on-month decline in downstream production schedules and cautious purchasing limit the upside space The slowdown in inventory reduction indicates a marginal easing of the tight supply-demand balance Considering that the main contract has recently risen while the spot market price has slightly declined, and the weakening basis and expanding trading volume indicate intensified long-short competition, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, lacking a unilateral trend [4][42][43].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak. Port inventories are rapidly accumulating due to concentrated arrivals, and downstream demand is weak. The contradiction of "high arrival pressure - accelerated inventory accumulation - weak downstream follow - up" is more prominent [2] - Styrene: The port basis of styrene remains relatively strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak. With the approaching of the seasonal inventory accumulation period and the expected oversupply of crude oil, the upside space of styrene prices is limited. The price center is likely to move down [3] Group 4: Day - to - day Market Summary Fundamental Information - Price: On December 10, the main styrene contract closed down 1.63% at 6,469 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 (- 48 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene contract closed down 0.95% at 5,440 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On December 10, Brent crude closed at $58.3/barrel (- $0.6/barrel), WTI crude closed at $61.9/barrel (- $0.6/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 16.1 tons (- 0.3 tons), a 7.5% month - on - month de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 22.4 tons (+ 6.0 tons), a 36.6% month - on - month inventory accumulation [2] - Supply: Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. The weekly styrene output was 34.2 tons (+ 0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.9% (+ 1.6%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 56.4% (+ 1.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 68.3% (- 2.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.0% (+ 1.4%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: The domestic market has a weak reality. Overseas, the most tense period of gasoline has passed, but the lag effect of the previous strong cracking spread is still being repaired. The downstream demand is weak [2] - Styrene: The port basis is strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak. The supply side maintains low - level operation, and the downstream demand in the off - season is limited. The price is under pressure from weak fundamentals and falling crude oil prices [3] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Price Data - Styrene: The main futures contract price decreased by 1.63% to 6,469 yuan/ton; the spot price remained unchanged at 6,770 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 23.53% to 156 yuan/ton [5] - Pure benzene: The main futures contract price decreased by 0.95% to 5,440 yuan/ton; the East China spot price decreased by 0.84% to 5,310 yuan/ton [5] - Upstream: Brent crude decreased by 1.07% to $58.3/barrel; WTI crude decreased by 0.88% to $61.9/barrel; naphtha price remained unchanged at 7,066.5 yuan/ton [5] Production and Inventory Data - Production: Styrene production in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons; pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons [6] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons; styrene factory inventory in China decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 tons; pure benzene port inventory in China increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [6] Capacity Utilization Data - Pure benzene downstream: Styrene capacity utilization increased by 1.56% to 68.9%; caprolactam capacity utilization decreased by 7.53% to 79.2%; phenol capacity utilization increased by 0.57% to 81.7%; aniline capacity utilization remained unchanged at 77.2% [7] - Styrene downstream: EPS capacity utilization increased by 1.51% to 56.4%; ABS capacity utilization decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%; PS capacity utilization increased by 1.10% to 59.0% [7] Group 6: Industry News - Canada provided an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8] - US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [10] - Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027, reflecting market oversupply [10] - Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels, despite US pressure [10] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that some areas of the US economy showed signs of weakness and needed interest rate cuts [10] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [10] Group 7: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc. [12][14][15]