Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rebound of lithium carbonate futures has deviated significantly from the fundamentals. Although the demand for new energy vehicles remains resilient, factors such as the widening of the spot discount, the continuous increase in inventory, and the narrowing profit margins of downstream cell enterprises all suppress high prices. Short - term capital push may continue under the influence of market news, but as new production capacities such as the Mami Cuo Salt Lake are gradually put into operation, and the resistance of cathode material manufacturers to high prices increases, it is expected that the futures price will return to the fundamental logic within the next 1 - 2 weeks, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the previous trading day. However, the basis weakened significantly, expanding from - 580 yuan/ton on July 11 to - 2,680 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient follow - up power in the spot market. The trading volume of the main contract soared 151.87% to 1.015 million lots, reaching a recent single - day high, and the open interest increased 10.31% to 356,000 lots [1] - **Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Changes**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity slightly increased to 62%, and the medium - term supply was expected to be loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton respectively, and there was no obvious pressure on the cost side. In early July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 21% year - on - year but decreased 11% month - on - month, with short - term demand growth slowing down. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose moderately, while most cell prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials and mainly made rigid purchases. The social inventory of lithium carbonate climbed for four consecutive weeks to 141,000 physical tons, reaching a new high this year, and the warehouse receipts also accumulated, indicating insufficient actual digestion capacity in the spot market [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 64,280 yuan/ton on July 11 to 66,480 yuan/ton on July 14, an increase of 3.42%. The basis weakened from - 580 yuan/ton to - 2,680 yuan/ton, a change rate of - 362.07%. The open interest of the main contract increased 10.31%, and the trading volume increased 151.87%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium concentrates and some related products also had corresponding changes [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. The abnormal fluctuations in the futures market were mainly driven by short - term capital flows, not directly related to the industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the general acceptance range of downstream enterprises, and only some enterprises with rigid procurement needs maintained basic transactions. Although some lithium salt producers have tried to adjust prices, the overall quotation strategy remains cautious [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale volume was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 0% [7] - **Industry News**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment in a project that received a construction permit, which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes. Zhongkuang Resources plans to carry out a technical upgrade project for its lithium salt production line. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project has a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan and is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Crude oil prices may show a structural divergence, with SC crude remaining strong relative to the external market and the overseas market fluctuating at high levels. The strengthening of SC crude premium is mainly due to RMB exchange - rate fluctuations, domestic refinery restocking expectations, OPEC+’s cautious approach to production increases, and risks of Russian supply disruptions. In the overseas market, the stable Brent - WTI spread reflects the supply - demand balance in the Atlantic Basin, but geopolitical conflicts may support the Brent price, while the potential for US shale oil production increase limits the upside of WTI. Attention should be paid to the potential supply - disruption expectation gap after the implementation of US sanctions against Russia and the verification of Asia - Pacific demand based on the actual fulfillment of China's import data. [4] - Medium - term: If OPEC+’s actual production increase lags behind demand recovery, oil prices still face upward risks, but the macro - level US dollar trend and the escalation of trade frictions may intensify price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On July 14, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 527.5 yuan/barrel, up 13.6 yuan (+2.65%) from July 11. The intraday fluctuation range widened to 510.7 - 527.5 yuan/barrel, indicating increased market divergence. WTI and Brent crude oil prices remained stable at 68.75 dollars/barrel and 70.63 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly strengthened, expanding from 1.03 dollars/barrel to 2.95 dollars/barrel, and the SC crude oil contract's near - month to third - month spread widened from 21.9 yuan/barrel to 26.0 yuan/barrel (+18.72%), suggesting an enhanced short - term market expectation of spot tightness. [2] b. Supply - Chain, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: On July 14, the OPEC Secretary - General stated that OPEC+ is increasing production to meet the "very strong" demand expected in the third quarter, but emphasized a possible supply - demand tight balance in the coming months. The expectation of the US to escalate sanctions against Russia has raised concerns in the European market about restricted Russian oil supply, pushing Brent crude oil to break through 71 dollars/barrel during intraday trading. [3] - **Demand**: China's June import data is expected to improve, with the US - dollar - denominated import annual rate expected to rise from the previous - 3.4% to 1.3%. The news that the US may provide additional weapons to Ukraine has increased the geopolitical risk premium in Eastern Europe, potentially boosting the demand for crude oil as a strategic reserve. [3] - **Inventory**: China's crude oil futures warrants (including medium - sulfur crude oil) remained unchanged at 451.7 million barrels, low - sulfur fuel oil warrants were only 90 tons, and fuel oil warrants were 91,600 tons, all unchanged from the previous period, indicating no pressure on hidden inventories in the Asia - Pacific region. The change in US commercial crude oil inventories still depends on subsequent EIA data, but the expected release of strategic reserves may limit the bullish impact on the inventory side. [3] 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On July 14, the SC crude oil futures price was 527.5 yuan/barrel, up 13.6 yuan (+2.65%) from July 11. WTI was 65.65 dollars/barrel, down 3.1 dollars (-4.51%), and Brent was 69.14 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars (-2.11%). [6] - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the Oman spot price rose by 2.03 dollars (+2.89%), while the Brent spot price fell by 0.97 dollars (-1.33%). [6] - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread expanded from 1.03 dollars/barrel to 4.44 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread from 2.91 dollars/barrel to 7.93 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread from 1.88 dollars/barrel to 3.49 dollars/barrel. [6] - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose 0.25 points (+0.26%), the S&P 500 rose 8.81 points (+0.14%), the DAX index fell 94.67 points (-0.39%), and the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged. [6] b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The FU futures price was 2,922 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (+0.38%); the LU futures price was 3,694 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan (+1.48%); the NYMEX fuel oil price was 238.07 cents/gallon, down 8.53 cents (-3.46%). [7] - **Spot Prices**: Different fuel oil spot prices also showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the MDO price in Rotterdam rose by 9 dollars (+1.79%), while the IF0380 price in Singapore fell by 18 dollars (-4.29%). [7] - **Paper Prices**: The high - sulfur 180 paper price in Singapore (near - month) was 421.69 dollars/ton, up 0.25 dollars (+0.06%), and the high - sulfur 380 paper price in Singapore (near - month) was 411.99 dollars/ton, down 0.25 dollars (-0.06%). [7] - **Spreads**: The China high - low sulfur spread expanded from 729 yuan/ton to 772 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased from - 2,032 yuan/ton to - 1,978 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On July 14, OPEC Secretary - General Haitham Al Ghais said that OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, expecting "very strong" oil demand in the third quarter, followed by a tight supply - demand balance in the following months. China's June import data is expected to improve. [8][9] b. Demand - OPEC expects "very strong" oil demand in the third quarter, with a tight supply - demand balance in the coming months. China's June export data is expected to improve, with the US - dollar - denominated export annual rate expected to rise from 4.8% to 5%. [10] c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warrants were 91,640 tons, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warrants were 90 tons, and medium - sulfur crude oil futures warrants were 4,517,000 barrels, all unchanged from the previous day. [11] d. Market Information - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract closed down 0.05% at 778 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract closed down 0.11% at 9,167 yuan/kg, and the SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71% at 519 yuan/barrel. Trump said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia pushed Brent crude oil prices above 71 dollars/barrel during European afternoon trading. [11]

Group 1: Report Summary - The copper market is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices likely to fluctuate in the range of RMB 76,000 - 79,000 per ton, mainly due to weak demand, ample supply, and macro - level factors such as US tariff policies and potential delays in Fed rate cuts. [34] Group 2: Market Data Changes Sub - group 1: Main Contracts and Basis - On July 14, the SHFE copper price dropped to RMB 78,330 per ton, a decrease of RMB 140 from July 11. The LME price also declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis widened, indicating short - term supply surplus. The premium of premium copper remained at RMB 0, and the discount of flat - copper remained at RMB - 50, suggesting weak spot demand. The discount of wet - copper narrowed, possibly indicating improved supply. [2][33] Sub - group 2: Position and Trading Volume - On July 14, the LME copper inventory soared to 34,379 tons, a significant increase of 11,000 tons from July 11, with a growth rate of 47.5%. The SHFE inventory also increased, but at a slower rate of 0.83%. The accumulation of inventory is bearish for copper prices. [3][33] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Sub - group 1: Supply - China's copper concentrate imports in June decreased by 1.9% month - on - month but increased by 6.4% year - to - date, indicating overall growth in imports. The CSPT meeting decided not to set a reference processing fee for Q3, which may reflect tightness at the mine end and pressure on smelting profits, potentially leading to smelter production cuts. The 50% tariff on imported copper in the US may disrupt the supply chain, especially affecting Chile's exports. The suspension of production by Canada's Hudbay Minerals due to wildfires may temporarily reduce supply, but the impact is minor. [4][34] Sub - group 2: Demand - Domestic downstream restocked when copper prices rebounded but then reduced purchases, indicating unstable demand. Spot market transactions in Shandong and North China were light, with downstream being cautious before the contract change, mainly driven by rigid demand. This may suggest insufficient terminal demand, especially in the power and construction sectors. [5][34] Sub - group 3: Inventory - The continuous accumulation of LME and SHFE inventories, especially the significant increase in LME inventory, along with the rising COMEX inventory, indicates an increase in global visible inventory, strengthening the expectation of a supply - abundant market, which is unfavorable for prices. [6][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market has shown a trend of increasing supply and demand recently. The supply of petroleum benzene is stable, and the hydrogenated benzene has reached a historical high. The demand has recovered to the pre - maintenance level in the second quarter. There may be arbitrage opportunities if the supply - demand rhythm is misaligned. However, the demand has not improved substantially [4]. - The styrene market is generally weak due to the continuous deterioration of the supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is further weakening. The supply - demand gap is expanding, and it has entered the inventory accumulation stage. Although the short - term disk is supported by oil prices and macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On July 14, the styrene main contract rose 0.84% to 7,478 yuan/ton, with a basis of 237 (-72 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract fell 0.79% to 6,189 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On July 14, Brent crude closed at $68.5/barrel (+$1.9/barrel), WTI at $70.4/barrel (+$1.7/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot was 5,945 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 210,000 tons (+16,000 tons), a 8.1% increase; Jiangsu port inventory was 112,000 tons (+13,000 tons), a 12.9% increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance devices returned, and the supply was stable. The weekly output was 363,000 tons (-4,000 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 79.2% (-0.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The 3S downstream开工率 (capacity utilization rate) changed differently. EPS was 51.1% (-4.82%), ABS was 65.0% (+0.0%), and PS was 51.1% (-1.3%), with the overall开工 rate declining [3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: Supply and demand both increased. Supply was stable in petroleum benzene and reached a high in hydrogenated benzene. Demand recovered, and there may be arbitrage opportunities. The spot price rose with the disk, but demand had no substantial improvement [4]. - **Styrene**: The market was weak due to supply - demand deterioration. Supply pressure was high, demand weakened, and the supply - demand gap expanded. It entered the inventory accumulation stage, but the short - term disk was relatively firm [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures rose 0.84%, and spot rose 0.35%. Pure benzene prices in different regions had different changes. Brent crude rose 2.82%, WTI rose 2.51%, and naphtha rose 0.10% [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: Styrene production decreased 1.03%, pure benzene production decreased 0.37%. Styrene port and factory inventories increased, while pure benzene port inventory decreased 1.69% [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Styrene's capacity utilization rate decreased 0.82%, and the downstream 3S products' capacity utilization rates generally declined [8]. 3.3 Industry News - In 2025, the basic pension for retirees will be increased by 2%. - Trump said that if Canada raises tariffs on the US, the US will raise its 35% tariff on Canada accordingly. - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% tariffs on most trading partners [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import and domestic pure benzene cost comparison, styrene and pure benzene inventory, and downstream product capacity utilization rates [10][15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Supply - side policy uncertainties are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment remains cautious before the US tariff is implemented. Demand is dominated by the off - season, with only the new energy sector providing some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 11, the SHFE main copper contract rose slightly by 50 yuan to 78,470 yuan/ton. Spot discounts continued to widen, with the premiums of premium copper and flat - water copper dropping to 0 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount was 0.95 dollars/ton, increasing the pressure on near - term spot. LME copper inventories surged by 1,578 tons to 23,307 tons, a recent high, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, highlighting inventory pressure. Although the LME copper price rebounded slightly to 9,682 dollars, trading volume and open interest both contracted, indicating a decline in market activity [2] 2. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: Supply from major mines in Chile and around the world shows significant differentiation. The US plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper increases the uncertainty of Chile's exports. Overall, the supply side is marginally looser, but policy risks are rising [3] - **Demand Side**: The off - season characteristics are significant, and structural differentiation is intensifying. The growth of copper consumption in the photovoltaic industry is expected to slow down after the over - demand in the first half of the year. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which increased by over 40% year - on - year, still support copper prices. Downstream industries generally maintain just - in - time procurement [3] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories continue to accumulate. LME inventories increased by 1,971 tons compared to July 7, and SHFE and COMEX inventories also rose, reflecting a loose supply - demand pattern in the off - season [3] 3. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. Policy uncertainties on the supply side are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment is cautious before the US tariff is implemented. The off - season dominates demand, and only the new energy sector provides some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On July 11, 2025, the price of SMM 1 copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%) from the previous day. The SHFE price was 78,470 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.06%). The LME price was 9,663 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars (- 0.20%) [6] - **Inventory Changes**: LME inventories increased by 1,578 tons (7.26%) to 23,307 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 625 tons (0.58%) to 108,725 tons, and COMEX inventories increased by 3,061 short tons (1.32%) to 234,204 short tons [6] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 11, Antofagasta's CEO saw opportunities in US copper projects under the 50% tariff. Chile's mining minister said the government had no exact information on tariff implementation [7] - On July 11, data showed that Codelco's copper production in May increased by about 16.5% year - on - year to 13.01 tons, and BHP's Escondida mine production surged by about 24.4% to 13.2 tons, while Collahuasi's production decreased by 16.9% to 38,400 tons [7] - On July 11, it was reported that on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. Chile, supplying about 70% of US copper imports in 2024, is at the center of this trade storm [8] - On July 11, Canadian copper producer Hudbay Minerals temporarily stopped Snow Lake's operations due to wildfires [8] - In Q2 2025, Kamoa - Kakula's Phase I, II, and III concentrators processed 362 tons of ore, producing 11.2 tons of copper, a 11% year - on - year increase. The western area of the Kakula mine restarted mining in early June, and by mid - June, the mining capacity had reached 30 tons per month [9] 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [10][12][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the price of lithium carbonate shows a divergence between futures and spot markets. The spot market price may oscillate upwards due to the repair of downstream production scheduling expectations and some rigid demand. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside pressure comes from high inventory and continuous supply growth, while the downside support is from the seasonal stocking demand of the new energy industry chain and the rigid cost. There is a risk of short - term over - inflation in the futures market due to capital disturbances. The medium - term direction awaits a substantial increase in demand [4]. - The lithium carbonate price may maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the actual recovery of the demand side. If the demand recovery fails to meet expectations, the price may face pressure again [7]. Section Summaries 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - On July 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.16% from the previous day. The basis strengthened by 200 points to - 580 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 300 yuan to 63,700 yuan/ton. The expected marginal improvement in supply and demand supported the spot price. - The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 0.25% to 322,860 lots, and the trading volume increased to 402,816 lots, indicating an increase in the activity of short - term capital games [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 62%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton for a week. The cost pressure of upstream lithium mines has not been transmitted to the smelting end, and domestic production remains at a high level [3]. - Demand side: The retail and wholesale data of new energy vehicles increased by 21% and 31% year - on - year respectively, with a slight differentiation compared to last month. The marginal improvement momentum on the demand side was still insufficient. The prices of downstream cathode materials rose moderately, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 80 yuan to 31,030 yuan/ton per week, and the cell price remained stable. Material manufacturers' inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand, and their procurement strategies were cautious [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued to accumulate, reaching 140,793 tons in the week of July 11, with the growth rate expanding to 1.77% [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 11, 2025, compared with July 10, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 64,280 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.16%. The basis strengthened by 200 yuan to - 580 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 25.64%. The position of the main contract decreased by 823 lots to 322,860 lots, with a change rate of - 0.25%. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 4,794 lots to 402,816 lots, with a change rate of 1.20%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan to 63,700 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.47%. The market prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 500 yuan to 50,550 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 0.98%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased by 60 yuan to 115,155 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.05%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 25 yuan to 31,055 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.08% [6]. - Compared with July 4, 2025, on July 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.00%, with a change rate of 0.32%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a change rate of 1.77%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 4.31 yuan/piece, with a change rate of 0.23%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 5.52 yuan/Ah, with a change rate of 0.18% [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 64,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 63,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,650 - 62,650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 62,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upwards, but the spot trading activity was low. Downstream material manufacturers had insufficient willingness to stock up and adopted a relatively cautious procurement strategy. The rigid demand of some downstream enterprises supported the price, and the improved production scheduling expectations of the new energy industry chain in July improved market sentiment. However, the supply - side pressure remained unrelieved, the production of lithium carbonate remained high, and the industry inventory was abundant, limiting the upside space of the price. The futures market showed an irrational rebound, deviating from the spot fundamentals, and there was a risk of short - term capital - driven fluctuations [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 10, from July 1 - 6, the retail volume of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide was 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a decrease of 11% compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 6.583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. From July 1 - 6, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in July last year and a 0% increase compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 5.594 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 10, the SMM weekly review showed that the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. On the supply side, most enterprises maintained a bullish attitude and suspended quotations, while a small number of enterprises further raised their quotations. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories, and some smelters with low inventories inquired in the market, but due to the large price difference between buyers and sellers, there were still few actual transactions. Affected by the extension policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China may face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has an upward driving force, but the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be noted [10]. - On July 4, Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary participated in the investment in a project. The Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which is invested and controlled by the Jiangsu Zangqing New Energy Industry Development Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium - Boron Ore Mining Project", which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium salt production capacity from salt lakes, enhancing the company's core competitiveness and industry influence, and creating new profit growth points for the company [11]. - On July 3, the SMM weekly review showed that the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. A mining enterprise announced force majeure, further strengthening the bullish sentiment of mines and traders. Most enterprises still suspended quotations, and a small number of quoting enterprises further raised their quotations. Smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand, and most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories inquired in the market, but due to the large price difference between buyers and sellers, there were still few actual transactions. Affected by the extension policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China may face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has an upward driving force, but the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be noted [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The overall start - up of petroleum benzene devices has changed little, while the start - up of hydro - benzene has reached a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the second - quarter maintenance period. In the third quarter, new downstream device launches may bring arbitrage opportunities. The spot price has increased, but there is no substantial improvement in demand [6]. - The benzene - ethylene market is weak due to the deterioration of the supply - demand structure. Supply is under continuous pressure, and demand from the 3S products is weakening. The supply - demand gap is widening, and the market is entering a stock - building phase. Although the short - term market is supported by oil prices and macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On July 11, the benzene - ethylene main contract closed down 1.38% at 7416 yuan/ton, with a basis of 309 (+104 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.51% at 6183 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On July 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.6 dollars/barrel (-1.8 dollars/barrel), WTI at 68.6 dollars/barrel (-1.6 dollars/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot price was 5945 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Benzene - ethylene sample factory inventory was 21.0 million tons (+1.6 million tons), a sequential increase of 8.1%; Jiangsu port inventory was 11.2 million tons (+1.3 million tons), a sequential increase of 12.9% [4]. - **Supply**: Benzene - ethylene maintenance devices returned, and the overall supply was stable. The weekly output was 36.3 million tons (-0.4 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 79.2% (-0.8%) [4]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of downstream 3S products varied. EPS capacity utilization was 51.1% (-4.82%), ABS was 65.0% (+0.0%), and PS was 51.1% (-1.3%), with the overall start - up rate declining [5]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply - side, the overall start - up of petroleum benzene devices changed little, while hydro - benzene reached a historical high. Demand - side, the start - up rate of caprolactam increased steadily, and the overall demand has recovered. The East China port inventory increased slightly this week. In the third quarter, new device launches may bring arbitrage opportunities [6]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: The market trend was weak due to the worsening supply - demand structure. Supply was under pressure, and demand from 3S products decreased. The supply - demand gap widened, and the market entered a stock - building phase. Although the short - term market was supported, the fundamentals were bearish [7]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene prices showed different trends on July 11 compared to July 10. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI, and naphtha also changed [9]. - **Output and Inventory**: From July 4 to July 11, the output of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene in China decreased slightly, while the inventory of benzene - ethylene increased and that of pure benzene decreased slightly [10]. - **Start - up Rates**: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene downstream products changed from July 4 to July 11, with some increasing and some decreasing [11]. 3. Industry News - In 2025, the basic pension for retirees will be raised by 2% [12]. - Trump said that if Canada raises tariffs, the US will raise its 35% tariff on Canada accordingly [12]. - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, benzene - ethylene prices, benzene - ethylene - pure benzene spreads, inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related products [13][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market presents a differentiated pattern of "tight reality, loose expectation." On the supply side, there are both increased supply to Asia by OPEC+ (Iraq's premium and Saudi's increased supply) and disturbances from potential US sanctions, while the IEA's long - term surplus expectation restricts the upside space. On the demand side, the high refinery profits driving restocking and the strong diesel demand still support the near - month contracts. Technically, the SC contract has broken through the key resistance level of 520 yuan/barrel and the monthly spread has widened, indicating strong short - term buying momentum. However, the risk of a phased correction caused by OPEC+ policy adjustments in August should be vigilant [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On July 11, 2025, the SC futures price closed at 522.5 yuan/barrel, showing a unilateral upward trend during the day (ranging from 502.3 - 522.5 yuan/barrel), significantly higher than the previous day. WTI and Brent were reported at 68.29 dollars/barrel and 70.18 dollars/barrel respectively, both continuing a slight upward trend, indicating that international oil prices were short - term bullish. The SC - Brent spread widened to 2.62 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened to 4.51 dollars/barrel, reflecting that the domestic SC contract performed significantly stronger than the external market. The Brent - WTI spread also expanded to 1.89 dollars/barrel, indicating a relative shortage of heavy crude oil. The contango structure of the SC near - month contract was further strengthened (the spread between consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 contracts rose to 23.6 yuan/barrel), suggesting increased market concerns about short - term supply tightness [2]. - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 9730 tons to 91640 tons. Coupled with the widening of the low - sulfur fuel oil spread to a more than five - month high, it reflected the weak spot demand for high - sulfur fuel oil. Refineries may reduce inventory to cope with the tightness of heavy crude oil. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged at 451.7 million barrels, and the short - term supply might maintain a tight balance [3]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Iraq announced on July 13 that the official selling price of Basra medium crude oil for August showed a premium of 1.35 dollars/barrel for Asia (compared to the Oman/Dubai benchmark) and a discount of 0.55 dollars/barrel for Europe (compared to Brent), indicating an increased resource tilt towards the Asian market, which might lead to regional supply differentiation. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China in August might increase to 51 million barrels (year - on - year or month - on - month increase). Coupled with the IEA's warning of a "huge supply surplus" in 2025, it might imply the future production release pressure of OPEC+. In addition, potential new US sanctions and tariff policies on Russia might further disrupt the supply of heavy oil [4]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side shows strong - reality characteristics. Refinery profits remain at a high level. Diesel demand is supported by high - temperature weather in many parts of the world (limiting logistics) and the recovery of the manufacturing PMI. Coupled with the shortage of heavy crude oil restricting the diesel yield, diesel inventories continue to decline. The hi - 5 high - sulfur fuel oil spread has strengthened to a more than five - month high, reflecting the increased willingness of refineries to purchase low - sulfur resources [5]. - **Inventory Side**: Against the background of low inventory in the Cushing area, the structural shortage contradiction of heavy oil is prominent. The significant decrease in fuel oil warehouse receipts is in contrast to the unchanged medium - crude oil warehouse receipts, which might imply that refineries are accelerating the de - stocking of fuel oil raw materials to cope with the pressure of diesel production, and the tight inventory pattern in the middle of the industrial chain continues [6]. c. Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows a "tight reality, loose expectation" pattern. The supply side has both increased supply to Asia by OPEC+ and disturbances from potential US sanctions, but the IEA's long - term surplus expectation restricts the upside. The demand side, driven by high refinery profits and strong diesel demand, supports the near - month contracts. Technically, the SC contract shows strong short - term buying momentum. However, the risk of a phased correction due to OPEC+ policy adjustments in August should be noted [8]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On July 11, 2025, SC was 513.90 yuan/barrel, down 8.60 yuan (- 1.65%) from the previous day; WTI was 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 1.88 dollars (2.81%); Brent was 70.63 dollars/barrel, up 1.75 dollars (2.54%) [9]. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at 71.23 dollars/barrel. Brent spot price was 72.67 dollars/barrel, up 2.04 dollars (2.89%); Oman was 70.30 dollars/barrel, down 1.28 dollars (- 1.79%); Victory was 67.52 dollars/barrel, down 1.06 dollars (- 1.55%); Dubai was 70.18 dollars/barrel, down 1.11 dollars (- 1.56%); ESPO was 64.41 dollars/barrel, down 0.85 dollars (- 1.30%); Duri was 70.58 dollars/barrel, down 1.04 dollars (- 1.45%) [9]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from 3.92 to 1.03 dollars/barrel (- 73.72%); the SC - WTI spread decreased from 5.93 to 2.91 dollars/barrel (- 50.93%); the Brent - WTI spread decreased from 2.01 to 1.88 dollars/barrel (- 6.47%); the SC consecutive - consecutive 3 spread decreased from 23.6 to 21.90 yuan/barrel (- 7.20%) [9]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index was 97.86, up 0.29 (0.30%); the S&P 500 was 6,259.75 points, down 20.71 points (- 0.33%); the DAX index was 24,255.31 points, down 201.50 points (- 0.82%); the RMB exchange rate was 7.17, down 0.01 (- 0.09%) [9]. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.021 million barrels, up 7.07 million barrels (1.69%); Cushing inventory was 21.195 million barrels, up 0.464 million barrels (2.24%); US strategic reserve inventory was 403.003 million barrels, up 0.0238 million barrels (0.06%); API inventory was 454.126 million barrels, up 7.128 million barrels (1.59%). The US refinery weekly operating rate was 94.70%, down 0.20% (- 0.21%); the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.006 million barrels/day, down 0.099 million barrels (- 0.58%) [9]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU was 2,911.00 yuan/ton, down 61.00 yuan (- 2.05%); LU was 3,640.00 yuan/ton, down 47.00 yuan (- 1.27%); NYMEX fuel oil was 246.60 cents/gallon, up 7.21 cents (3.01%) [10]. - **Spot Prices**: IF0380 in Singapore was 420.00 dollars/ton, down 4.00 dollars (- 0.94%); in Rotterdam was 439.00 dollars/ton, down 3.00 dollars (- 0.68%); MDO in Singapore was 518.00 dollars/ton, down 17.00 dollars (- 3.18%); in Rotterdam was 503.00 dollars/ton, down 14.00 dollars (- 2.71%); MGO in Singapore was 673.00 dollars/ton, down 27.00 dollars (- 3.86%); marine 180CST FOB in Singapore was 421.44 dollars/ton, down 13.10 dollars (- 3.01%); marine 380Cst FOB in Singapore was 412.24 dollars/ton, down 13.05 dollars (- 3.07%); low - sulfur 0.5% FOB in Singapore remained unchanged at 512.24 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 180 in East China remained unchanged at 5,050.00 yuan/ton [10]. - **Paper Prices**: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) was 421.44 dollars/ton, down 13.10 dollars (- 3.01%); high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) was 412.24 dollars/ton, down 13.05 dollars (- 3.07%); blended high - sulfur 180CST ex - ship in East China ports remained unchanged at 4,925.00 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Russian M100 was 448.00 dollars/ton, down 2.00 dollars (- 0.44%) [10]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was 108.08 dollars/ton, up 14.55 dollars (15.56%); the Chinese high - low sulfur spread was 729.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan (1.96%); LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) was - 2,096.00 yuan/ton, down 47.00 yuan (- 2.29%); FU - Singapore 380CST was - 2,046.00 yuan/ton, down 61.00 yuan (- 3.07%) [10]. - **Platts and Inventory**: Platts (380CST) was 418.71 dollars/ton, up 11.03 dollars (2.71%); Platts (180CST) was 429.45 dollars/ton, up 15.79 dollars (3.82%); Singapore inventory was 24.708 million barrels, up 1.328 million barrels (5.68%) [10]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On July 13, Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization SOMO set the official selling price of Basra medium crude oil for North and South America in August at a discount of 1.15 dollars/barrel compared to the Argus sour crude oil. It set the price for Asia at a premium of 1.35 dollars/barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average and at a discount of 0.55 dollars/barrel for Europe compared to the benchmark Brent crude oil [11][12]. - On July 11, sources said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in August was expected to increase to about 51 million barrels [12]. b. Demand - On July 11, Asian hi - 5 fuel oil spreads reached a more than five - month high as high - sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) continued to weaken this week. With the support of low Cushing inventory, the hype about the shortage of heavy oil has resurfaced. The marginal improvement of diesel demand indicators in Europe and the US, such as the manufacturing PMI, and high - temperature weather in multiple regions have also affected logistics transportation, intensifying the tension of the diesel supply - demand contradiction. From the raw material side, the tightness of heavy oil has led to a decline in the diesel yield, resulting in continuous de - stocking of diesel inventories in multiple global regions. Currently, refinery profits remain high, and the purchasing demand is still strong, and the strong - reality pattern may continue [13]. c. Inventory - Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts were 90 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were 91,640 tons, down 9,730 tons from the previous trading day. Medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts were 4,517,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day [14]. d. Market Information - On July 11, international crude oil futures rose about 1%. Investors weighed the tightness of the spot market and the IEA's forecast of a huge supply surplus this year. The market also focused on US tariffs and potential further sanctions on Russia. Crude oil price decline has a negative impact on market sentiment. Coupled with weak terminal demand, today's trading in the East China market was only sporadic small orders, and prices fluctuated slightly within a range. The mainstream transaction price of 180cst marine fuel oil in East China was 4,900 - 5,200 yuan/ton, 0 diesel was 6,900 - 7,150 yuan/ton; the mainstream wholesale trading price of marine 180cst was 4,850 - 5,000 yuan/ton [14]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC and WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rate, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong refinery (atmospheric and vacuum distillation) operating rate, China's refined oil monthly production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trend, international port IFO380 spot price, Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Chinese high - low sulfur spread, cross - regional high - low sulfur spread, and fuel oil inventory [15][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and PX & PTA are still running in a relatively sluggish state. The polyester chain commodities are expected to continue to face pressure in the short term, with the prices in the PX - PTA segment likely to continue the downward trend and the risk of downstream negative feedback increasing [2][4]. - PX prices may continue to be under pressure due to the weakening of crude oil prices, the convergence of basis, and the expected compression of processing fees. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern, with the decline of PX weakening cost support, and the weak downstream polyester demand and low processing fees limiting the downside space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,694.0 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 106.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,700.0 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 50.0 yuan/ton. The weakening of crude oil prices suppresses the cost side, and the convergence of basis implies weakened spot support. With the expected compression of PX processing fees, prices may continue to be weak. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3]. Polyester - On July 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,508.0 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,660.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 152.0 yuan/ton. The continuous decline of PX and PTA futures prices reflects the loosening of cost support and the pressure of loose supply. The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City has decreased, indicating weakened downstream procurement demand. The inventory days of polyester filament varieties and short - fibers are significantly higher than the five - year average, highlighting the inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.30% to 6,694 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 17.19%, and the open interest increased by 1.95%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 488.89% to 106 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.89% to 4,700 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 22.82%, and the open interest decreased by 2.69%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 525.00% to 50 yuan/ton. The PTA 5 - 9 spread decreased by 650.00%, and the PTA 9 - 1 spread increased by 216.67%. The PTA import profit increased by 0.33% [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.52% to 6,508 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25.78%, and the open interest decreased by 14.93%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.45% to 6,660 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 2.70%. The PF 1 - 5 spread decreased by 84.62%, and the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5]. - **Other prices**: The price of Brent crude oil's main contract remained unchanged at 68.88 dollars/barrel. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol remained unchanged. The prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [5]. - **Processing spreads**: The PX processing spread remained unchanged at 256.67 dollars/ton. The PTA processing spread increased by 1.62% to 141.03 yuan/ton. The processing spreads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fibers, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [6]. - **Light Textile City trading volume**: On July 10, the total trading volume was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. - **Industrial chain load rates**: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6]. - **Inventory days**: The inventory days of polyester short - fibers decreased by 0.63% to 7.94 days, while those of polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY increased by 11.52%, 10.27%, and 2.80% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 11, several Fed officials made statements. Musalem said the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Daly considered implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and thought there would be two rate cuts this year. Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a rate cut in July. The Fed proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks. - On July 10, the Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on rate cuts. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel said the ECB should neither plan nor rule out further rate cuts [7]. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 10, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - For PX, the main contract price decreased by 1.3%, closing at 6,694 yuan/ton with a basis of 106 yuan. The decline in crude oil prices may lead to a further decrease in PX prices. In the short term, PX may continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the trends of crude oil and PX processing fees. - For PTA, the main contract price decreased by 0.89%, with a basis of 50 yuan. The decline in PX prices weakens the cost support for PTA. If the terminal consumption demand does not improve significantly, the demand for PTA may be limited. PTA may continue to be weak under the dual pressure of cost decline and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking trends [36].