产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：智利国家铜业对2026年长单报价大幅上涨至350美元/吨，较2025 年提升261美元，反映冶炼成本上升；同时，西藏玉龙铜业项目投产，年处 理氧化铜矿能力提升至100万吨，阴极铜产量增至13527吨，澳大利亚Eva铜 矿项目获批，预计2028年增加供应。 需求端 ：华北地区下游消费疲软，月末资金受限导致需求不佳，下游采购 压价心理明显；电力、建筑等领域需求未现强劲复苏，采购情绪仅略微上 升。 电解铜价高位震荡，需求疲软抑制进一步上行空间 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：主力合约SHFE价格小幅上扬至86620元/吨，较前一日上 涨70元；LME价格同步走高至10832.5美元/吨。基差方面，升水铜基差小幅 走高至150元/吨，平水铜基差扩大至35元/吨，但LME(0-3)基差走弱至9.52 美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：市场采购情绪略微上升，成交量略有扩大；持仓量未显示显 著变化，库存数据间接反映市场流动性稳定。 市场小结 预计未来一到两周铜价维持高位震荡，受供给端成本支撑和宏观情绪改善 驱动，但需求端疲软抑制涨幅。驱动原因包括：供给端长单报价上涨和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The supply pressure of TA suppresses price elasticity, and there is insufficient upward momentum. The future prices of PX and PTA are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand exacerbating the risk of oversupply, and inventory is likely to shift from differentiation to a general upward pressure [2][6]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On November 26, the PX main contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 235.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,684.0 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 54.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 58.11 dollars/barrel. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average trading volume of 697.2 million meters [2]. - **Supply Side**: If there is no significant change in PX devices, the operating rate is expected to remain high. With stable crude oil prices, there is continuous cost support, which may support the upward movement of PX prices. The operation of PTA devices may be stable, but the strong upward trend of upstream PX indirectly increases PTA costs. If the device operating rate remains high, supply pressure still exists, which may suppress the increase [3]. - **Demand Side**: The trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased to 679.0 million meters (lower than the 15 - day average of 697.2 million meters), reflecting a slowdown in textile consumption and implying weak polyester demand. If the polyester operating rate follows the decline, it will directly weaken the support on the demand side of PTA, and the weak demand may further drag down the overall trend [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The risk of PTA factory inventory accumulation is expected to increase. Weak demand combined with a negative PTA main contract basis (- 54.0 yuan/ton) indicates that the market anticipates future supply to be loose or inventory pressure to increase. If the demand side does not improve, the pressure on the inventory side will strengthen the expectation of price decline. The deep negative basis of PX (- 235.0 yuan/ton) implies tight spot supply but cautious expectations for future inventory [5]. - **Polyester**: On November 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,264.0 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 36.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15 moving average) decreased from 716.4 million meters to 697.2 million meters, indicating a continuous weakening of downstream textile demand. The inventory status is differentiated, but weak demand may lead to inventory accumulation. It is predicted that the future prices of the industrial chain (PX and PTA) will continue to decline [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 20.41%, and the open interest decreased by 1.88%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.50%. The PX basis decreased by 31.28% [8]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,684 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 10.52%, and the open interest decreased by 0.50%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 107.69%, and the import profit increased by 0.33% [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,264 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 5.69%, and the open interest decreased by 3.51%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged, and the PF basis decreased by 45.45% [8]. - **Other Products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and some other products showed different degrees of change, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, and some polyester products remained unchanged [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On November 26, a Fed official in Milan believed that the economy needed significant interest rate cuts. On November 25, Fed official Daly supported a December interest rate cut, the market had the view of delaying the December interest - rate meeting, the probability of a December Fed interest rate cut rose to 80%, and the Israeli central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Zelensky said that the list of steps to end the conflict was approaching feasibility [10]. - **Supply - demand (Demand)**: On November 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 550.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 131.0 million meters [12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main fluctuation range between RMB 95,000 and RMB 100,000 per ton. The stable supply restricts the upside space, while the demand is supported by new energy vehicle sales growth and good cell production scheduling. However, the downstream's rigid - demand - based procurement and strong wait - and - see sentiment, along with the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, may suppress price breakthroughs. Meanwhile, continuous inventory reduction provides bottom support [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Main Contract and Basis**: On November 26, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, showing a slight increase. The basis was - RMB 5,140 per ton, weaker than the previous value of - RMB 4,200 per ton by RMB 940, indicating an expanded spot - futures price difference and a relatively weak spot market [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract reached 478,054 lots, a significant increase of 134,855 lots or 39.29% from the previous value of 343,199 lots. The trading volume was reported at 810,231 lots, a substantial increase of 298,952 lots or 58.47% from the previous value of 511,279 lots [1]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, the same as on November 14. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. Lithium salt plants were operating at a high - level capacity, with spodumene and salt - lake sources as the main supply sources. It is expected that the November output will be flat month - on - month, and the overall supply is stable [2]. - **Demand Side**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, 2025, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 2% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month, and the wholesale sales increased by 1% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The downstream cell prices increased slightly. The power and energy storage markets had strong demand, and cell production scheduling was positive [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7% from 120,472 physical tons on November 14 [2]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From November 25 to November 26, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from RMB 95,400 per ton to RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99%. The basis weakened from - RMB 4,200 per ton to - RMB 5,140 per ton. The position increased from 343,199 lots to 478,054 lots, up 134,855 lots or 39.29%, and the trading volume increased from 511,279 lots to 810,231 lots, up 298,952 lots or 58.47%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at RMB 91,200 per ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from RMB 160,500 per ton to RMB 163,000 per ton, up RMB 2,500 or 1.56%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from RMB 143,950 per ton to RMB 144,150 per ton, up RMB 200 or 0.14%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from RMB 38,925 per ton to RMB 39,110 per ton, up RMB 185 or 0.48% [5]. - From November 14 to November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%. The inventory decreased from 120,472 physical tons to 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from RMB 4.54 per piece to RMB 4.64 per piece, up RMB 0.1 or 2.2%. The price of 523 square ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.50 per Wh. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.52 per Wh. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.34 per Wh. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased from RMB 7.35 per Ah to RMB 7.45 per Ah, up RMB 0.1 or 1.36% [5]. 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On November 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was RMB 93,415 per ton, up RMB 953 per ton from the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 90,000 - 95,600 per ton, with an average of RMB 92,800 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 88,800 - 92,000 per ton, with an average of RMB 90,400 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures showed a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main contract switched to 2605, and the futures price mainly fluctuating between RMB 95,300 and RMB 99,900 per ton. The downstream material factories' procurement willingness returned to a wait - and - see attitude after a brief recovery, and the procurement was still mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating next year's long - term agreements, mainly focusing on the coefficient [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 554,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 1,070.3 million units, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 618,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 1,267.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - **Industry News**: On November 21, according to "Longyan Release", the project of Sanwei (Longyan) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. was officially launched in the Gaopi area of Longyan High - tech Zone (Economic Development Zone), Fujian Province. The project, with a total investment of RMB 580 million, is expected to have an annual production capacity of 1 GWh of three - dimensional solid - state lithium batteries and an annual output value exceeding RMB 1.2 billion [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is significantly affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and refined oil. The gasoline crack spread has changed from strong to weak, weakening the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease due to overseas plant shutdowns and domestic factory load - reduction plans, but the weakening cost due to falling oil prices restricts price increases. The market is likely to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term [2]. - The styrene market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new production capacity has been gradually absorbed, and supply pressure is moderately stable. Demand has a certain boost from exports. However, the weakening cost leads to price oscillations. In the short term, styrene is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and the market direction depends on export continuity and cost stability [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On November 26, the styrene main contract closed up 1.35% at 6,533 yuan/ton with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.96% at 5,463 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,330 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On November 26, Brent crude oil closed at $58.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $61.8/barrel (-$0.9/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month de - stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization had a slight month - on - month change. Weekly styrene output was 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The market is affected by crude oil and refined oil fluctuations. The gasoline crack spread has weakened, reducing the support from gasoline blending. Supply may decrease, but the weakening cost restricts price increases. The market is likely to oscillate weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of intertwined supply - demand forces. The impact of new capacity has been absorbed, and exports may support demand. However, the weakening cost leads to oscillations. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations in the short term [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and pure benzene futures prices increased on November 26, while styrene spot prices decreased. Crude oil prices decreased [5]. - **Output and Inventory**: Styrene and pure benzene production decreased slightly. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries increased, while that of some decreased [7]. 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement with the IAEA. - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][11][20]

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase. The spot price in East China remained flat at 3,900 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis (spot - futures) of +4 yuan/ton [2][50]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 30.79% to 177,363 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.45% to 289,511 lots, indicating a decline in market participation [2][37][38]. *** Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% and the oil - based operating rate at 76.23%. Coal - based profit improved significantly to 187 yuan/ton, a 66.34% increase, while losses in ethylene - based processes deepened [2][45][50]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [2][3][50]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China remained flat at 732,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, slightly increasing the port inventory pressure [3][50]. *** Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern. The reasons are as follows: the stable supply - side operating rate and the improvement in coal - based profit may support production willingness; the stable demand - side load supports the fundamentals; although there is a slight increase in Zhangjiagang's inventory, the overall inventory pressure is controllable. However, the expanding losses in oil - based production may limit the upside potential, and cost changes need to be monitored [50].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 26 日 星期三 供需趋稳与成本走弱，芳烃价格震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 25 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.16%，报 6446 元/吨，基 差 64（+0 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.11%，报 5411 元/吨。 成本：11 月 25 日布油主力收盘 58.8 美元/桶（+0.8 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.7 美元/桶（+0.8 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5320 元/吨（-40 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 15.2%，苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨（+3.4 万吨），环比累 库 30.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 69.0%（-0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.3% （+4.6%），ABS 产能利用率 72.4%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 55.9% （ ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term The overall supply - demand imbalance in the industry persists, with supply likely to exceed demand If the supply increment continues to be released, prices may be pressured downward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of November 24, 2025, the prices of crude oil main contracts rose slightly. SC crude oil futures were reported at 447.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.5 yuan (0.11% increase) from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21; WTI crude oil futures were at 58.89 dollars/barrel, up 0.91 dollars (1.57% increase); Brent crude oil futures were at 62.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (1.39% increase) [2] - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread was 0.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (72.82% decrease); SC - WTI spread was 4.14 dollars/barrel, down 0.8 dollars (16.19% decrease); Brent - WTI spread was 3.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.05 dollars (1.28% decrease); SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread was - 4.0 yuan/barrel, down 2.2 yuan (122.22% decrease), indicating a significant weakening of the spread and a relative weakening of near - month contracts [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Information shows potential supply increases. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced the establishment of a new company to manage the Ghasha gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company increased its oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to a total of 120 billion barrels Geopolitical factors may affect supply stability [3] - **Demand Side**: Demand signals are divided. The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU, suggesting stronger refined oil demand; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO However, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 14.1% - 20.5% month - on - month, and the decline in external markets such as crude oil futures may drag down overall energy demand; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year, and Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues [4] - **Inventory Side**: There is a lack of direct inventory indicators, but indirect evidence points to pressure. The decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues and Oman's fiscal revenue implies high inventory or oversupply; Indonesia's auction of a sanctioned oil tanker may reflect the disposal of excess crude oil inventory The risk of overall supply - demand imbalance has increased [5][6] 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term In the short term, the price increase on November 24 was due to supply - side events and partial demand - side support, but the widespread weakening of spreads shows market concerns about supply - demand balance The continuous expansion of supply may exacerbate oversupply, while the divided demand signals indicate unstable global demand Indirect inventory signals strengthen the expectation of oversupply [7] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose on November 24 compared to November 21, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of some crude oil varieties such as Shengli, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri decreased - **Spreads**: All spreads, including SC - Brent, SC - WTI, Brent - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3, showed a weakening trend - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and US strategic reserve inventory increased, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable The US commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing inventory decreased, and the API inventory increased The US refinery's weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The price of FU fuel oil futures rose, while the prices of LU and NYMEX fuel oil futures decreased Some prices in IF0380, MDO, MGO, etc. remained unchanged - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable, with only slight increases in the FOB prices of marine 180CST and 380CST in Singapore and a decrease in the CIF price of Russian M100 - **Paper Prices**: The paper prices of high - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore's near - month contracts increased slightly - **Spreads**: Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread, China's high - low sulfur spread, LU - Singapore FOB(0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST all changed to varying degrees - **Platts and Inventory**: The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased, and the Singapore inventory decreased Some US distillate inventory data were not updated [9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On November 24, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will establish a new company to manage the Ghasha acid gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Syria received nearly 1 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia [10][11] 3.3.2 Demand - Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; the US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO [12] 3.3.3 Inventory - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's board of directors will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels, bringing the total to 120 billion barrels [13] 3.3.4 Market Information - On November 24, Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, clarifying China's principled stance on the Taiwan issue; the US may directly dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro; at the close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts all rose; Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues; Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company's revenue increased by 11% year - on - year in the first nine months; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year; Indonesia is auctioning a sanctioned supertanker and its crude oil; Malaysia's palm oil futures may decline due to negative fundamentals and lower external markets [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts related to the oil industry, such as the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [16][18][20]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polyester chain is in a volatile pattern due to the game between cost drag and terminal resilience in production starts [2] - The future trend of the polyester industry chain is weakening, with PTA and PX prices likely to decline further and downstream polyester product prices under pressure [7] - PX may see a slight increase, while PTA may fluctuate or decline slightly [51] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 24, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -229.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,680.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -60.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.51 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.98 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 693.8 million meters [3] - On the supply side, potential device maintenance or low operating rates may tighten supply. PTA's supply depends on PX input, and rising PX costs may strengthen PTA's cost support, with future prices likely to fluctuate upward [4] - On the demand side, the significantly lower trading volume in the Light Textile City indicates weak terminal textile consumption, which may pressure the polyester operating rate and weaken PTA procurement willingness. The impact on PX demand is limited due to its low consumption elasticity [5] - On the inventory side, the risk of PTA inventory accumulation increases the downward price space. A decline in the polyester operating rate may slow down PTA shipments and increase factory inventory. Once PTA inventory rises, supply - demand imbalance will amplify selling pressure [6] Polyester - On November 24, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,242.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 58.0 yuan/ton [7] - The continuous decline in the trading volume of the China Light Textile City reflects weak downstream demand. The overall inventory accumulation signal is emerging, especially the weak demand for filament yarns [7] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 0.33%, the trading volume decreased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.16% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price increased by 0.30%, the trading volume decreased by 18.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.17% [8] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 1.30%, the trading volume decreased by 8.95%, and the open interest decreased by 3.00% [8] - Other products: Most product prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [8][9] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts on November 24 and 21, and the decision - making on interest rate cuts became more complex due to factors such as the cancellation of the October CPI report and employment data [10][11] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Geneva talks between the US and Ukraine were reported to have "made progress," and the peace process was considered to be advancing [10] Supply - Demand - Demand - On November 24, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.62%, with 526.0 million meters of filament fabric trading volume and 115.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, etc. [13][15][17]

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene are still weak, but the cost support from macro and oil prices may change the previous one - sided bearish expectation [2] - Styrene continues to have a tight supply pattern, and cost - side factors are becoming dominant again. Cost warming may push up the price bottom center, while demand remains weak [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On November 24, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.09% at 6,436 yuan/ton, with a basis of 64 (+11 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.33% at 5,435 yuan/ton [2] - On November 24, Brent crude oil closed at $58.1 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $61.9 per barrel (-$0.9 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,320 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene port inventory was 148,000 tons (-27,000 tons), with a 15.2% month - on - month destocking; pure benzene port inventory was 147,000 tons (+34,000 tons), with a 30.1% month - on - month stockpiling [2] - Styrene production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly. Weekly production was 343,000 tons (-1,000 tons), and plant capacity utilization was 69.0% (-0.3%) [2] - The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. EPS capacity utilization was 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS capacity utilization was 55.9% (+0.5%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas fundamentals show a structural differentiation. Macro and oil price cost support may change the bearish expectation. In China, short - term arrivals are fast, port inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand improvement is limited [2] - **Styrene**: Supply remains tight, port inventory continues to decline. Cost factors are becoming dominant. Demand is weak, and the impact of cost warming is more direct on production profit and price support [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - From November 21 to 24, 2025, the main styrene futures contract decreased by 1.09%, and the spot price decreased by 0.45%. The main pure benzene futures contract decreased by 1.33%, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.75% [5] - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 9.42%, and the spread between East China and Shandong pure benzene increased by 42.86% [5] - Brent crude oil decreased by 1.59%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.37%, and naphtha price remained unchanged [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 14 to 21, 2025, Chinese styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 343,000 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 447,000 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 148,000 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 188,000 tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 30.09% to 147,000 tons [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene decreased by 0.30% to 69.0%, that of caprolactam increased by 2.18% to 88.2%, that of phenol increased by 11.46% to 78.7%, and that of aniline decreased by 4.49% to 75.7% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased by 4.64% to 56.3%, ABS capacity utilization increased by 0.60% to 72.4%, and PS capacity utilization increased by 0.50% to 55.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8] - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8] - Iran's foreign minister announced the formal termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8] - The US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import and domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port and factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization of related products [13][18][22]