油价趋势偏弱叠加需求平淡，聚酯原料下行顺畅 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 10月09日，PX 主力合约收6586.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差 为-100.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4584.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.22%， 基差为-44.0元/吨。 成本端，10月09日，布油主力合约收盘66.08美元/桶。WTI收62.3美元/ 桶。需求端，10月09日，轻纺城成交总量为680.0万米，15 日平均成交为 857.33万米。 供给端 ：PX端虽期货价格微涨，但基差贴水持续扩大至-100元/吨，暗示 现货市场供应宽松压力未改，可能与海外装置开工回升及国内新产能释放 预期有关。PTA当前开工率仍偏高，部分装置在低加工费环境下计划检修或 减产，但供应端整体仍存在过剩隐患。原油价格中枢下移导致成本支撑转 弱，叠加PX供应压力向PTA传导，PTA生产利润承压，后期开工率或被动下 调。 需求端 ：聚酯需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA continue to operate weakly due to weakened cost support and inventory accumulation pressure [1] - The price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, with POY potentially performing stronger due to low inventory [4] - Considering the supply, demand, and inventory situation, PX and PTA prices may continue to face downward pressure unless there is a sustained improvement in demand or supply - side maintenance and production cuts [38] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,570 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,594 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.77 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.18 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 865,670 meters [2] - The supply of PX and PTA is generally loose. The continuous weakening of the PX basis reflects the current oversupply pressure in the spot market. Although some domestic PX plants have short - term shutdowns and overhauls, the overall operating rate remains relatively high. For PTA, low processing fees have increased the factory's willingness to cut production, but the reduction of some plants under high inventory is insufficient to reverse the supply - demand pattern, and the supply pressure will continue with future new plant commissioning plans [2] - Downstream polyester demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City is mainly driven by short - term factors such as pre - holiday restocking. The 15 - day average trading data is still lower than the normal level in the peak season, and the terminal weaving orders show seasonal weakening signs. The polyester sector maintains rigid demand, but there is a risk of a decline in the operating rate under increasing inventory pressure, and the procurement demand for PTA may weaken marginally [3] - The PTA inventory structure continues the inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory days of PTA factories are flat month - on - month but still at a high absolute level, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory reflects the loose supply - demand pattern. Considering the incremental pressure brought by the commissioning of the new Fengming plant in October and the uncertainty of the sustainability of downstream restocking, the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared, and high inventory will continue to suppress the spot price and futures valuation [3] Polyester - On September 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,276 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,405 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 trading volume of China Light Textile City has continuously climbed from 760,000 meters to 865,670 meters. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (6.36 days), polyester filament DTY (29.5 days), and FDY (25.7 days) are all higher than the average of the past 5 years, while the inventory days of POY (18.8 days) are lower than the 5 - year average of 20.4 days, indicating inventory reduction pressure for staple fiber and some filament varieties. Overall, driven by the downward trend of oil prices at the PX - PTA cost end and the slow recovery of demand, the price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, and POY may perform stronger due to low inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.50% to 6,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 5.68% to 189,612 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17.48% to 68,124 lots [5] - PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged at 816 US dollars/ton and 792 US dollars/ton respectively [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25% to 4,594 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.27% to 593,958 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.50% to 964,348 lots [5] - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 613 US dollars/ton [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.95% to 6,276 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 1.21% to 183,370 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19.97% to 93,016 lots [5] - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.47% to 6,405 yuan/ton [5] - Other industrial chain prices such as Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased by 1.13% to 189.3 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [6] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 17.93% to 1.23 million meters, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [6][9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 11.05%, 8.74%, 10.76%, and 6.35% respectively [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 30, gold broke through 3,830 US dollars, reaching new highs, and the value of the US gold reserve exceeded 1 trillion US dollars [7] - New York Fed President Williams supported interest rate cuts at the previous meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, estimating the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%; this year's voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, is open to future interest rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters; Cleveland Fed President Hamerak continues to advocate a hawkish stance, saying that tight monetary policy needs to be maintained to curb inflation [7] - Switzerland plans to invest in the US gold refining industry in exchange for Trump's tariff reduction [7] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, with Israel to withdraw troops in stages, not occupy or annex Gaza; a peace committee chaired by Trump will be established, and Israel has accepted the plan while Hamas will review it [7] - On September 29, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month; from January to August, the year - on - year increase was 0.9% [7] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 17.93%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX and PTA main futures and basis, PTA futures monthly spreads, short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product inventory days, etc [10][12][14] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - On September 30, PX and PTA main contracts declined by 1.5% and 1.25% respectively. The decline in crude oil prices may affect upstream costs. The trading volume of Light Textile City on that day was 1.23 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 865,670 meters, indicating possible fluctuations in recent demand [37] - On the supply side, the negative PX basis may indicate sufficient spot supply or inventory accumulation pressure, and there may be some plant restarts. For PTA, the basis has turned from negative to positive, but the inventory has not changed significantly, and the supply pressure may increase as factories maintain high operating rates under low profits. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning or overhaul plans [37] - On the demand side, the sudden increase in the trading volume of Light Textile City, but with a daily average of 865,000 meters, may show short - term restocking or temporary order increases in the downstream, but the overall improvement of the textile industry is uncertain. If the polyester operating rate remains high, it may support PTA demand; otherwise, there may be inventory accumulation risks [37] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory days are at a medium level, but the social inventory has increased compared with last week. If downstream demand cannot be sustained, inventory may continue to accumulate, especially if the supply side maintains a high operating rate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the next few weeks [38] - Overall, the decline in crude oil prices may reduce the costs of PX and PTA, but PX supply is sufficient and PTA supply pressure is high; the short - term demand is strong but its sustainability is uncertain; inventory has begun to accumulate. Therefore, PX and PTA prices may continue to be under downward pressure unless there is a continuous improvement in demand or supply - side overhauls and production cuts [38]

乙二醇供应增量叠加需求疲弱，盘面维持弱势 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力合约价格从4224元/吨小幅下跌至 4207元/吨，跌幅0.4%，日内波动区间收窄，显示市场观望情绪增 强。华东现货价格同步回落20元/吨至4275元/吨，但基差从76元/ 吨扩大至93元/吨，表明现货市场短期支撑力度强于期货。跨期价 差方面，1-5价差继续走弱至-75元/吨，反映远月合约预期承压， 而5-9价差大幅反弹47元/吨至-33元/吨，暗示中期供需矛盾或边 际缓解。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量减少6856手至31.4万手，但成交量大幅增长 18%至13.7万手，显示部分资金离场但市场活跃度提升，短期多空博弈加 剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率回升1.5个百分点至71.31%，主要因油制路线 开工率提升2.5个百分点至76.94%，而煤制开工率维持62.95%不变。油制利 润仍处于深度亏损但边际未恶化，煤制利润稳定在-574元/吨，成本端压力 未见明显缓解。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终 端订单未现季节性改善，聚酯产销平淡导致原料采购以刚需为主，需求端 缺乏向上驱 ...

印尼铜矿变动节内持续发酵，外盘铜持续吸引资金 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 持仓与成交 ： 库存数据呈现分化：LME铜库存单日增加1220吨（+4.77%），但SHFE库存微 降500吨（-0.35%），COMEX库存小幅累积。LME(0-3)贴水收窄至-29.22美 元/吨。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ： 主力合约与基差 ： 截至9月30日，SHFE铜主力合约价格大幅走高至83280元/吨，较前一日上涨 1.23%；LME铜价同步上扬至10428.5美元/吨，较9月24日累计上涨223.5美 元。现货升贴水方面，升水铜升水幅度从25元/吨大幅提升至70元/吨，平 水铜及湿法铜贴水收窄，显示现货市场情绪回暖，基差整体走强。 需求端 ： 国内基建项目开工提速带动电力用铜需求，9月空调排产同比增15%，但地 产竣工数据仍疲软。海外方面，欧洲制造业PMI连续三月低于荣枯线，压制 出口订单；美联储加息预期升温导致美元指数走强，抑制海外投机性买 盘。 库存端 ： 秘 鲁 Las Bambas 铜 矿 于 9 月 29 日 宣 布 恢 复 运 营 ， 但 智 利 Codelco 旗 下 Chuquic ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. The release of new supply - side production capacity and high existing operating rates exert downward pressure, while the growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices on the demand side provide bottom support. The strengthening of the basis reflects a marginal relief of spot pressure, but warehouse receipt pressure still exists. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the post - holiday restocking rhythm, the ramping - up speed of new salt - lake production capacity, and the follow - up information of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 30, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 72,800 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous trading day. The basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 820 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.86% to 232,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.82% to 317,000 lots [1]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, but the production capacity of leading enterprises was accelerating. Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang and Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake were put into operation, increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, the retail end of new energy vehicles remained resilient. From September 1 - 27, 1.039 million new energy vehicles were retailed and 1.154 million were wholesaled. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 4.98% to 63,250 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials increased slightly, indicating marginal improvement in cathode material demand. However, the price of iron - lithium battery cells remained flat, showing structural differentiation. Carbonate lithium inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, with 136,825 physical tons on September 30, and the slow destocking speed restricted the price rebound momentum [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. The new supply - side production capacity and high existing operating rates suppress prices, while the growth of new energy vehicle sales and the rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices on the demand side provide bottom support. The strengthening of the basis reflects a marginal relief of spot pressure, but warehouse receipt pressure still exists. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the post - holiday restocking rhythm, the ramping - up speed of new salt - lake production capacity, and the follow - up information of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Product | September 30, 2025 | September 29, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate main contract | 72,800 | 73,920 | - 1,120 | - 1.52% | yuan/ton | | Basis | 300 | - 820 | 1,120 | 136.59% | yuan/ton | | Main contract open interest | 231,964 | 251,749 | - 19,785 | - 7.86% | lots | | Main contract trading volume | 317,458 | 465,591 | - 148,133 | - 31.82% | lots | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate market price | 73,100 | 73,100 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Spodumene concentrate market price | 6,390 | 6,390 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Lepidolite concentrate market price | 3,400 | 3,400 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Lithium hexafluorophosphate | 63,250 | 60,250 | 3,000 | 4.98% | yuan/ton | | Power ternary material | 122,350 | 121,750 | 600 | 0.49% | yuan/ton | | Power lithium iron phosphate | 33,640 | 33,640 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Product | September 26, 2025 | September 19, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate | 71.31% | 71.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | % | | Lithium carbonate inventory | 136,825 | 137,531 | - 706 | - 0.51% | physical tons | | 523 cylindrical ternary battery cell | 4.42 | 4.42 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/piece | | 523 square ternary battery cell | 0.40 | - | 0.00 | 0.51% | yuan/Wh | | 523 soft - pack ternary battery cell | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/Wh | | Square lithium iron phosphate battery cell | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00% | yuan/Wh | | Cobalt - acid lithium battery cell | 6.65 | 6.35 | 0.30 | 4.72% | yuan/Ah | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On September 30, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,800 - 74,300 yuan/ton, with an average of 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, with an average of 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to oscillate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,700 - 74,000 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories' National Day stockpiling was basically completed, and market transactions became significantly lighter. In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounted for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite decreased to 15%. Overall, the September market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate was faster, resulting in a temporary supply shortage [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 - 27, the retail volume of the national passenger - vehicle new energy market was 1.039 million, a 9% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 17% increase compared to the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of national passenger - vehicle new energy was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 8.609 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. From September 1 - 27, the wholesale volume of national passenger - vehicle manufacturers' new energy was 1.154 million, a 12% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 21% increase compared to the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of national passenger - vehicle manufacturers' new energy was 54.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.098 million, a 31% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Industry News**: - On September 28, news showed that on September 20, EVE Energy's Hungary base reached a new milestone with the official entry of electromechanical equipment, marking the key stage of the project's civil engineering. The base is expected to supply large cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant after completion in 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs [8][9]. - On September 26, news from "Zhangjiagang Release" showed that on September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, Jiangsu, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan, was completed and put into operation. Tianqi Lithium is a globally leading new - energy materials enterprise focusing on lithium, with 5 production bases globally, and its Zhangjiagang base has an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [9]. - On September 26, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at the Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been in the works for four years, was officially put into operation. The project passed a 120 - hour functional assessment from September 20 - 24, 2025. The project's production capacity release is expected to significantly improve China's lithium - resource self - sufficiency rate. The company has the exclusive mining right for the Zabuye Salt Lake, which is one of the world's three largest and Asia's largest lithium - rich salt lakes [9][10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [11][14][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol is likely to continue its low - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The upper limit is restricted by port inventory pressure and the risk of coal - based cost collapse, while the lower limit is supported by oil - based costs. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - chemical production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on oil - based route costs. If inventory reduction fails to meet expectations, prices may face further pressure [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: On September 26, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan from the previous day, and the weekly decline widened to 0.78%. The East China spot price weakened to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened slightly to 77 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped sharply by 201 yuan to - 66 yuan/ton, indicating a pessimistic market expectation for future supply and demand [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract increased by 27.59% and 2.62% respectively, with open interest reaching 326,000 lots, indicating intensified capital games [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.78%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 74.39% and 62.95% respectively. The coal - based profit deteriorated further to - 584 yuan/ton, but the current supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was stable at 63.43%. The terminal demand improved seasonally to a limited extent, and the polyester sales were dull, resulting in mainly rigid procurement of ethylene glycol and a lack of incremental drivers [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory in the East China main port climbed to 48.57 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased, but the port shipping speed slowed down, and the explicit inventory pressure increased significantly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, the main contract price of MEG futures was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of MEG dropped by 148.89% to - 66 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.56% to - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 281.69% to 129 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: The coal - based profit decreased by 13.18% to - 584 yuan/ton, while the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production were not provided [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate remained unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load was 63.4% [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. c. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **September 28**: International oil prices rose slightly, with stable cost - side support. The ethylene glycol futures market was closed, and the market trading atmosphere was light. The East China price was around 4,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream market fluctuated slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was also stable [6]. - **September 26**: International oil prices fluctuated little, and the cost - side lacked driving force. The ethylene glycol supply - demand pattern was weak, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The East China price was around 4,293 yuan/ton. The mainstream market declined slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was stable [6]. d. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory in the East China main port [8][10][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyester demand shows a moderate recovery, but high inventory suppresses the rebound of PTA prices [2] - In the short - term, the industrial chain will maintain a weak recovery pattern: demand recovery supports the stabilization of PTA prices, but high - inventory varieties (DTY/FDY) still suppress the price increase space, and POY may perform strongly due to healthy inventory, while attention should be paid to the cost - side pressure brought by the increase in PX supply [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 26, the PX main contract closed at 6656.0 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 153.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4646.0 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 46.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, on September 26, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.82 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, on September 26, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 9.88 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 7.744 million meters [3] - On the supply side, the supply - side pressure of PX has increased marginally, with the raw material switching of some refineries and the expected commissioning of new domestic plants gradually realized, resulting in loose spot liquidity; combined with the continuous decline of crude oil prices, the cost support of PX has weakened. For PTA, in the short term, the restart of plants and the commissioning of new capacities are concurrent, the industry operating rate remains at a medium - high level, and the overall spot supply is abundant, while the low processing fee may suppress the upward flexibility of subsequent plant loads [3] - On the demand side, there is a structural differentiation in polyester demand. Although the weekly transaction data of the Light Textile City has improved month - on - month, its guidance for the stocking cycle of polyester filament still needs to be verified. Currently, the polyester operating load is maintained in the range of 82% - 83%, and there is still rigid demand support for PTA, but the terminal grey fabric inventory is still at a high level, and the sustainability of replenishment by weaving enterprises is in doubt, which may restrict the upward driving space of the demand side [4] - On the inventory side, the inventory of PTA factories has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, and the absolute amount of social inventory is still at a high level within the year. For PX, as the supply increases and downstream PTA manufacturers control the raw material procurement rhythm, the PX - NAP spread is under continuous pressure, and the trend of inventory transfer from the PX end to the PTA end in the industrial chain is strengthened, and the overall obvious inventory pressure suppresses prices [4] Polyester - On September 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6326.0 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6440.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 114.0 yuan/ton [5] - The 15 - day moving average of the trading volume of the Light Textile City has been rising continuously (from 7.15 million meters to 7.74 million meters from September 16 to September 26), reaching a new high in the past two weeks, indicating a moderate recovery in terminal demand. There is a differentiation in the inventory of polyester filament varieties: the DTY inventory of 29.5 days is still higher than the five - year average of 28.4 days, the FDY inventory of 25.7 days is significantly higher than the average of 22.2 days, the POY inventory of 18.8 days is lower than the average of 20.4 days, and the short - fiber inventory of 6.36 days is higher than the average of 4.96 days [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products on September 26, 2025, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, etc., as well as their changes and recent price change rates compared with September 25, 2025 are provided [6] - Data on processing spreads, Light Textile City trading volume, industrial chain load rates, and inventory days of polyester products are also presented [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 26, Fed Governor Bowman said it's time to focus on employment rather than inflation; this year's FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thought the more the balance - sheet reduction, the better; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was a bit uneasy about excessive early rate - cuts based on employment data slowdown and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked; San Francisco Fed President Daly also believed it's too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [8] - On September 26, Fed Governor Cook warned the Supreme Court that if dismissed, the market would fall into "chaos" [8] - On September 26, the Swiss National Bank kept the interest rate at 0%, standing still for the first time since starting the rate - cut cycle in March 2024 [8] - On September 26, Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is ready to step down after the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and elections will be held if there is a cease - fire [8] - On September 25, this year's FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of rate - cuts, expressing concerns about inflation issues and not willing to support rate - cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth, labor, etc. have slowed down, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate - cuts may be needed [8] - On September 25, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle, and Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate - cut [8] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 9.88 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 23.65%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 7.69 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 2.2 million meters [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts related to the industrial chain are provided, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and long - filament production and sales situation, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [11][13][15] 5. Appendix: Big - Model Reasoning Process - From the supply side, the prices of PX and PTA main contracts are falling, and the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI are also falling, which may mean that the decline in crude oil prices on the cost side will affect the production costs of PX and PTA. The negative basis of PX and PTA may indicate weak spot markets, high inventory pressure, or poor demand, and the high operating rate may lead to oversupply [37] - From the demand side, the trading volume of the Light Textile City has increased, indicating an improvement in recent demand. The good trading data of the Light Textile City may mean an increase in downstream polyester demand, but whether the demand improvement can be sustained and whether it has been pre - digested by the market need to be judged [38] - From the inventory side, the negative basis of PTA may reflect spot pressure, and inventory may be accumulating. If the supply side maintains a high operating rate while the demand side improvement is insufficient to digest the supply, inventory may continue to increase, suppressing PTA prices. For PX, stable supply and falling crude oil prices may lead to inventory accumulation and further affect prices [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Copper prices will remain high in the near future due to the Indonesian copper mine accident, with increased volatility. However, approaching the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions in single-sided Shanghai copper positions. The expected release of new production capacity will suppress long-term prices, but short-term restocking at the smelting end will support spot prices. On the demand side, high prices and the National Day holiday will lead to a decline in production, making the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season less prominent. Macroscopically, the issuance of policies to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous industry by eight domestic departments may boost market confidence, but high copper prices will intensify the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: From September 22 to September 26, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly from 79,990 yuan/ton to 82,490 yuan/ton and then declined slightly, while the LME copper price dropped from $10,320/ton to $10,205/ton, indicating pressure on the external market. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper shrank significantly from 95 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat copper and wet-process copper widened to -40 yuan/ton and -105 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting the weakening of the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to -$33.91/ton, and the basis weakened overall [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased from 295,609 lots on September 22 to 297,660 lots on September 26, an increase of 0.69%. The SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 25 tons to 144,400 tons, while the COMEX inventory increased by 1,228 short tons to 322,284 short tons [2]. (2) Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project, and Ningbo Jintian Copper's 100,000 - ton A - grade copper registered production capacity was implemented, strengthening the medium - and long - term supply increase expectation. However, short - term smelting disturbances were limited, and the raw material inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand in industries such as electricity, construction, and automobiles was weak. Copper cable enterprises slowed down downstream pick - up due to copper prices reaching 83,000 yuan/ton, and their finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month. The operating rate of enameled machines decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% month - on - month, and the pre - holiday inventory of brass rod enterprises was significantly lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, approaching the National Day holiday, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to decrease by 9.74 percentage points to 64.04% month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased continuously, reaching 26,557 tons on September 26, a decrease of 3.99% compared to the previous week. However, the SHFE inventory remained at a high level of 144,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to accumulate, resulting in a differentiated pressure on global visible inventories. The finished product inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 78,900 tons [5]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | September 26, 2025 | September 25, 2025 | September 22, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 82,660 | 82,520 | 80,140 | 140 | 0.17% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 40 | 80 | 95 | -40 | -50.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -40 | -10 | 15 | -30 | -300.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -105 | -60 | -35 | -45 | -75.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | -34 | -32 | -31 | -2 | -7.48% | dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 82,490 | 82,540 | 79,990 | -50 | -0.06% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,205 | 10,276 | 10,320 | -71 | -0.69% | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 26,557 | 27,662 | 27,419 | -1,105 | -3.99% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 144,400 | 144,425 | 144,775 | -25 | -0.02% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 322,284 | 321,056 | 318,229 | 1,228 | 0.38% | short tons | [9] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 26, Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project invested by Canadian mining company McEwen Copper, and McEwen Copper enjoys the tax exemption plan of the large - scale investment incentive system (RIGI) [10]. - It is expected that the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises will drop to 64.04% next week (September 26 - October 2), a month - on - month decrease of 9.74 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. The main reasons are that high copper prices suppress downstream inventory demand and enterprises' pre - stocked inventory has not been significantly digested. In addition, the National Day holiday in the next week will lead to centralized production holidays of many enterprises [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, domestic main refined copper rod enterprises mainly focused on production and inventory, so the raw material inventory increased by 2.21% month - on - month, reaching 32,400 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month, reaching 78,900 tons [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points, 0.09 percentage points lower than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Jintian Copper" brand A - grade copper produced by Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, and it can be used for the performance settlement of the cathode copper futures contract [11]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [12][16][18].

OPEC+或于十月继续增产，原油维持震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年9月26日，SC主力合约小幅上涨0.14%至491.3元/ 桶，WTI微跌0.05%至65.19美元/桶，Brent微升0.03%至68.82美元/桶。价 差方面，SC-Brent小幅收窄0.01美元至0.04美元/桶，SC-WTI价差走强0.04 美元至3.67美元/桶，Brent-WTI价差扩大0.05美元至3.63美元/桶，显示欧 美市场对轻质原油的溢价增强。SC连续-连3价差进一步走弱0.8元至-4.3 元/桶，反映近月合约承压。 持仓与成交 ：洲际交易所数据显示，截至9月23日当周，布伦特原油投机 净多头头寸减少11,592手至220,579手，柴油净多头头寸削减3,817手至 114,507手，显示市场对能源品后市的谨慎情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：OPEC+可能于10月5日会议上批准至少13.7万桶/日的增产，叠加 伊拉克库尔德地区石油出口恢复，预计未来原油供应边际增加。但乌克兰 对俄罗斯楚瓦什输油泵站的袭击及炼油厂攻击事件，或加剧俄罗斯原油出 口的不确定性。此外， ...