1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the apparent inventory of ethylene glycol is high, and weak demand fails to provide favorable support. Although the inventory decline and cost support may prevent further price drops in the short - term, the lackluster demand restricts price rebounds. Therefore, the ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 3,660 yuan/ton to 3,609 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39%. The East China spot price fell from 3,710 yuan/ton to 3,665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.21%. The basis (spot - futures) widened from 50 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. In terms of oil - based production profits, the profits of various ethylene - based production methods generally improved, while the natural - gas - based production profit decreased by 10.0% [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 12,684 lots to 241,540 lots, a growth of 5.54%. The position slightly increased by 518 lots to 297,267 lots, a growth of 0.17%, indicating increased trading activity but limited capital inflow [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 64.88%, with the oil - based operating rate at 72.78% and the coal - based operating rate at 56.69%. The profit improvement may suggest a decrease in the cost of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, supporting production stability [3]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. There was no significant driving force on the demand side [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased from 874,000 tons to 730,000 tons, a reduction of 144,000 tons, a decline of 16.48%. The Zhangjiagang inventory decreased from 355,000 tons to 324,000 tons, a reduction of 31,000 tons, a decline of 8.73%. The obvious inventory reduction reflects increased port shipments or decreased arrivals, alleviating the supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of MEG futures decreased from 3,660 yuan/ton to 3,609 yuan/ton. The East China market spot price dropped from 3,710 yuan/ton to 3,665 yuan/ton. - **Profit**: The profits of various ethylene - based production methods improved, with the coal - based profit increasing significantly, and the natural - gas - based profit decreasing. For example, the SD oxidation method profit increased from - 628.15 yuan/ton to - 603.54 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased from - 142.6 yuan/ton to - 80.33 yuan/ton [2][5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly to 65.1%, the coal - based operating rate increased to 57.2%, and the oil - based operating rate remained at 72.8%. The loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The East China main port inventory decreased by 16.48%, and the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 8.73% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation On January 4, due to the decline in international oil prices during the holiday, but with the potential strengthening of crude oil under geopolitical influence, there is some support at the cost end. The arrival of ships is low, and the downstream polyester sales data is average. The East China price is negotiated at around 3,680 yuan/ton. The mainstream market is consolidating, the South China market price is stable, and the Shaanxi market price is lowered [6]. 3.4 Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The decline in futures prices but the widening basis indicate strong support in the spot market. The stable supply - side operation and improved profits may promote production, but the significant inventory decline alleviates concerns about oversupply. The demand side remains stable. Overall, the reduced cost pressure and inventory reduction provide support, but weak demand restricts the upside potential [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Venezuelan situation on international oil prices is limited, and long - term oil prices are still anchored to a loose fundamental situation. Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. In the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On December 31, 2025, the SC main contract price was reported at 432.2 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.89% from the previous day; the WTI main contract was at 57.41 US dollars per barrel, down 0.93%; the Brent main contract was at 60.91 US dollars per barrel, down 0.6%. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.93 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 16.22%; the SC - WTI spread remained stable at 4.43 US dollars per barrel; the Brent - WTI spread strengthened to 3.5 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 5.11%; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened to - 3.1 yuan per barrel [1][5] - Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026, strengthening the expectation of supply tightening. Due to the arrest of the Venezuelan president, Venezuelan oil exports were temporarily paralyzed and ports were damaged. However, its current production and export scale have a limited impact on international oil prices. As of the end of 2025, its daily crude oil production was about 1 million barrels, accounting for about 1% of the global total supply, and daily exports were about 700,000 barrels [2] - **Demand Side**: On January 2, China's "Deep - Sea No.1" gas field increased its production to 4.5 million tons of oil equivalent, indicating stable operation of refinery facilities and stable overall apparent demand. In Europe and the US, although the Christmas oil - using peak season temporarily boosted demand, the overall recovery rate slowed down and was lower than the same period last year, and refinery operations started to decline after the festival [2] - **Inventory Side**: Venezuelan inventories were full, leading to local production cut pressure. US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories and OECD inventory data were not updated, but global inventories may tighten due to supply disruptions [2] - Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. Although the interruption of Venezuelan oil exports has a controllable impact on the global market, in the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 0.89%, 0.93%, and 0.6% respectively. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread weakened, the SC - WTI spread remained stable, and the Brent - WTI spread and SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index slightly increased, the S&P 500 declined, and the DAX index remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.46%, Cushing inventories increased by 2.52%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. - **Refinery Operations**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume both increased slightly [5] - Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 1.05% and 1.41% respectively. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and other indicators also showed different degrees of change [6] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply - On January 4, 2026, it was reported that OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The US government asked major US oil companies to invest in Venezuela to repair its oil infrastructure [7][8] - Demand - Venezuelan state - owned oil company executives stated that the US attack did not damage oil facilities, and production and refining operations were normal [9] - Inventory - Venezuelan state - owned oil company asked some joint - venture enterprises to cut crude oil production due to full inventories. Venezuelan oil exports were paralyzed [10] - Market Information - On January 3, 2026, US President Trump said that the US would restore normal oil supply and ensure the proper care of the Venezuelan people, while maintaining a full - scale embargo on Venezuelan oil [11] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually show the changes in the industrial chain data [12][14][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the pure benzene market lies in the mismatch between high import pressure and weak downstream demand. Overseas supply pressure persists, leading to continued accumulation of domestic port inventories, which suppresses the market. Domestic supply growth is limited, and there is a potential supply increase from new capacity in Q1. Demand remains weak [3]. - The styrene market shows a pattern of slow supply recovery, delayed inventory rebuilding, and some demand resilience. Overseas supply pressure has increased, but previous price support is still being released. Domestic supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is in the off - season with mixed performance in downstream sectors [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On December 31, the styrene main contract rose 0.15% to 6,791 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract fell 0.44% to 5,463 yuan/ton. Brent crude closed at $58.0/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), and WTI crude closed at $61.3/barrel (-$0.6/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,330 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: East China pure benzene port inventory was 30.0 tons (+2.7 tons), and styrene port inventory was 13.9 tons (+0 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: CFR China and FOB South Korea processing fees rebounded slightly, and the US - South Korea price difference remained high. However, the overseas gasoline crack spread weakened, reducing the blending support. Styrene plant load rebounded from a low level, but non - integrated plants were still in the loss zone with limited profit improvement [2]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream of pure benzene strengthened, with the operating rates of CPL and phenol recovering. The styrene downstream entered the off - season, with slight fluctuations in the operating rates of PS and ABS, a slight decline in EPS operating rate, continuous compression of hard - rubber production profits, and persistent finished - product inventory pressure [2]. (2) Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The core contradiction is the mismatch between high import pressure and weak downstream demand. Overseas supply pressure persists, and domestic port inventories continue to accumulate. Domestic supply growth is limited, and new capacity may be put into operation in Q1 [3]. - **Styrene**: The market shows slow supply recovery, delayed inventory rebuilding, and some demand resilience. Overseas supply pressure has increased, but previous price support is still being released. Domestic supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is in the off - season [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene - Styrene futures rose 0.15% to 6,791 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose 0.18% to 6,760 yuan/ton. Pure benzene futures fell 0.44% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and East China spot prices fell 0.19% to 5,330 yuan/ton. Brent crude fell 0.22% to $58.0/barrel, and WTI crude fell 0.98% to $61.3/barrel [5]. (2) Production and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene - China's styrene production decreased 0.66% to 35.2 tons, and pure benzene production remained unchanged at 43.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu remained at 13.9 tons, and national pure benzene port inventory increased 9.89% to 30.0 tons [6]. (3) Operating Rates - Among pure benzene downstream, the operating rates of caprolactam and phenol increased, while that of aniline decreased. Among styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS decreased, while those of VBS and ABS increased [7]. 3. Industry News - Eight OPEC+ countries agreed in principle to suspend oil production growth in Q1 2026. The US and Israel demanded that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment activities. Other news includes political statements from Venezuela and Ukraine, sanctions by Ukraine, price cuts of gasoline and diesel in South Africa, and drone attacks by Ukraine on Russia [8][10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of pure benzene and styrene, the price difference between styrene and pure benzene, import and domestic costs of pure benzene, port and factory inventories of styrene, port inventories of pure benzene and ABS, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [11][21][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document [1] Report's Core View The report suggests that the polyester industry is facing increasing pressure during the off - season, with terminal negative feedback having an impact. PX and PTA prices are likely to continue to decline or remain weakly stable due to supply - side surpluses, weak demand, and potential inventory accumulation. Polyester prices may be stable or slightly increase, but high DTY inventory and supply recovery may offset some upward pressure [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On December 31, the PX main contract closed at 7260.0 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous day, with a basis of - 212.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5110.0 yuan/ton, down 0.66%, with a basis of - 10.0 yuan/ton. - Cost - end: On December 31, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 60.91 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 57.41 dollars/barrel. - Supply - end: PX plant operating rate remains high, digesting the profit space brought by cost decline. PTA operating rate may remain stable, and the decline in upstream raw material costs may encourage manufacturers to maintain the current production rhythm. - Demand - end: PTA supply increases while demand decreases. The downstream off - season deepens, terminal orders weaken, and polyester factories' negative feedback leads to a stronger willingness to reduce production. - Inventory - end: PTA factory inventory may gradually accumulate, increasing the risk of price decline and squeezing processing fees [3][4] Polyester - On December 31, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6514.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market was 6535.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton. - Demand: The MA15 trading volume in the Light Textile City was generally stable, indicating robust demand. - Inventory: The inventory days of polyester products vary. Future polyester prices may stabilize or rise slightly, but high DTY inventory and supply recovery may offset some upward pressure [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.77%, trading volume decreased by 22.49%, and open interest decreased by 6.85%. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.66%, trading volume decreased by 25.26%, and open interest decreased by 1.94%. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.76%, trading volume decreased by 4.27%, and open interest decreased by 13.81%. - Other products: Prices of various products in the industrial chain showed different degrees of change, and processing spreads also changed accordingly [6][7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On December 31, STC in Yemen sought self - determination and independence, with conflicts with the Yemeni government. - The Fed meeting minutes showed that officials had serious differences, and most thought interest rates could decline with inflation. - OPEC+ was expected to continue to suspend the crude oil production increase plan [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On December 31, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 749.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 581.0 million meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 169.0 million meters [9] 4. Future Price Trend Analysis Supply - end - Based on the decline in crude oil prices and the significant discount of PX basis, PX supply may be at a high level, and the PX plant operating rate shows no obvious reduction. PTA supply is relatively stable, but the impact of raw material cost changes on production needs attention [50] Demand - end - The trading volume in the Light Textile City is significantly lower than the short - term average, indicating weak demand in the terminal textile market, which may put pressure on the polyester operating rate and weaken the willingness to purchase PTA [50] Inventory - end - PTA factory inventory may face accumulation pressure due to weak downstream demand and stable supply, increasing the risk of selling off [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remains oversupplied, with high port inventories exerting continuous downward pressure on prices. Import volumes are relatively high, and there is insufficient short - term de - stocking momentum. Supply - side operations are stable, and the cost side provides limited support. Demand is weak, and overall, the short - term fundamentals are loose, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - Styrene: After the restart of some devices and the impact of device failures, production and capacity utilization have increased. Downstream demand has improved, but the de - stocking of visible inventories has slowed. Non - integrated devices' losses have narrowed, and integrated devices are still profitable. Short - term supply is expected to be stable, and due to temporary device disruptions, short - term supply and demand remain tight, with inventories likely to decline slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On December 30, the styrene main contract closed up 0.65% at 6,781 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.33% at 5,487 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On December 30, Brent crude closed at $58.1/barrel (+$1.4/barrel), WTI crude closed at $61.9/barrel (+$1.3/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's East China port inventory was 27.30 million tons (+1.30 million tons), remaining at a high level. Styrene's East China port inventory was 13.93 million tons (+0.46 million tons), and its East China commercial inventory was 8.46 million tons (+0.23 million tons), entering the inventory rebuilding stage [2]. - **Supply**: The pure benzene main basis was - 134 yuan/ton, and processing fees in CFR China and FOB South Korea rebounded slightly. The styrene device load rebounded from a low level, with an overall operating rate of 69.1% (+0.8 percentage points), and non - integrated devices were still in the loss range [2]. - **Demand**: Pure benzene's downstream sectors strengthened overall, while styrene's downstream entered the off - season. EPS and ABS operating rates fluctuated slightly, and PS operating rate increased, but the production profit of hard plastics was continuously compressed, and finished - product inventory pressure remained [3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure benzene**: The domestic market is supply - abundant, with high port inventories suppressing prices. Import arrivals are high, and short - term de - stocking is difficult. Supply - side devices operate stably, and cost support is limited. Demand is weak, and short - term prices will fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Styrene**: After device restarts and failures, production and capacity utilization increased. Downstream demand improved, but visible inventory de - stocking slowed. Non - integrated device losses narrowed, and short - term supply is expected to be stable. Due to device disruptions, short - term supply and demand are tight, and inventories may decline slowly [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The styrene futures main contract rose 0.65%, and the pure benzene futures main contract rose 0.33%. Brent crude rose 2.36%, and WTI crude rose 2.21% [2][6]. - **Production and Inventory**: China's styrene production increased by 2.26% to 35.5 million tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 0.07% to 43.6 million tons. Styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.41% to 13.9 million tons, and pure benzene's national port inventory increased by 5.00% to 27.3 million tons [7]. - **Operating Rate**: Among pure benzene's downstream sectors, styrene's operating rate increased by 1.57 percentage points to 70.7%, and among styrene's downstream sectors, PS's operating rate increased by 4.00 percentage points to 59.4% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Russia claimed to have carried out large - scale strikes on Ukraine. - The Palestinian economy remained in deep recession this year. - Venezuela's port refineries were operating normally. - Russia extended the ban on gasoline exports until the end of February 2026. - The Iraqi military will take over the Assad Air Base in a few days [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, but the increase may be limited. The supply side is supported by the sharp rise in raw material prices, pushing up production costs. The demand side is supported by the growth of new - energy vehicle retail sales and high cell production schedules, but weak wholesale data and downstream sensitivity to high prices lead to cautious procurement. The decline in inventory reflects a tight supply - demand balance [3][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly declined to 123,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day. The basis strengthened to - 17,720 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04% [1][35]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position volume significantly shrank to 607,187 lots, a decrease of 6.21% from the previous day. The trading volume slightly shrank to 924,823 lots, a decline of 2.55% [1][36]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate soared to 12,330 yuan/ton, a 9.89% increase from the previous day. The price of lepidolite concentrate slightly rose to 5,975 yuan/ton, a 1.88% increase. The capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. The progress of the 100,000 - ton lithium salt project of Xinjiang Nonferrous Group may increase long - term supply, but the current rise in raw material costs has pushed up production costs. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, and spot transactions are rare [2][37]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products generally increased. The price of power ternary materials rose 0.88% to 149,300 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate rose 2.0% to 42,045 yuan/ton. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 1% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 60.6%, but the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year, showing demand differentiation. The cell price increased due to cost - push, but downstream buyers are cautiously observing high - price lithium carbonate, and their procurement is mainly for rigid demand and long - term contracts [2][37]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased to 110,425 tons, a 0.94% decrease from the previous week. There is no direct mention of warehouse receipt data, but the decrease in inventory indicates a tightening supply - demand balance [2][38]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the next one to two weeks, but the increase may be limited. The supply - side raw material price increase supports the cost, while the demand side is cautious due to high prices, and the inventory decline reflects a tight supply - demand balance [3][39]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by 0.96% to 123,520 yuan/ton on December 25, 2025. - The basis strengthened by 11.04% to - 17,720 yuan/ton. - The position volume of the main contract decreased by 6.21% to 607,187 lots. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 2.55% to 924,823 lots. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% to 105,800 yuan/ton. - The market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 9.89% to 12,330 yuan/ton. - The market price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 1.88% to 5,975 yuan/ton. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.60% to 167,000 yuan/ton. - The price of power ternary materials increased by 0.88% to 149,300 yuan/ton. - The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.00% to 42,045 yuan/ton [5]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On December 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 105,138 yuan/ton, a 3,854 - yuan increase from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, a 3,400 - yuan increase. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, a 3,400 - yuan increase. The overall spot market trading of lithium carbonate was scarce [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From December 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 788,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. The wholesale sales were 782,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: - In 2023, the 100,000 - ton lithium salt project of Xinjiang Nonferrous Group started, which may affect future supply. - Recently, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - pressure - density lithium iron phosphate products [9][10]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources such as iFinD, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [11][14][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with the price fluctuating between 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are that the significant increase in LME inventory and the rise in scrap copper imports on the supply side suppress prices, high copper prices on the demand side inhibit consumption and year - end demand remains weak, and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition provides long - term support but has limited short - term impact [3][41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 25, the SHFE main contract price closed at 95,570 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 90 yuan from 95,660 yuan/ton on December 24, a decrease of 0.09%. The LME copper price closed at 12,133 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 78 US dollars from the previous day. The basis weakened, and the SMM premium copper discount deepened from - 180 yuan/ton on December 19 to - 280 yuan/ton on December 25 [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Overnight, LME copper's trading volume on December 24 shrank to 18,000 lots, and the position decreased to 340,000 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract shrank to 145,000 lots, and the position decreased to 244,000 lots [1] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On December 25, LME copper inventory increased significantly by 6,861 tons to 59,083 tons, an increase of 13.14%, indicating a loose supply. Jiangxi Copper announced the acquisition of SolGold on December 24, strengthening long - term control of copper mine resources. The CSPT meeting on December 25 decided not to set a reference figure for processing fees in the first quarter of 2026, increasing smelting uncertainty. In November, scrap copper imports increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 208,100 tons, supplementing the supply [2] - **Demand Side**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand. The SMM report shows that the spot premium in North China dropped sharply to a discount of 600 yuan/ton on December 25, and the refined copper rod market had poor trading. Year - end capital settlement led to weak提货 sentiment, and the market was waiting for the recovery of procurement after New Year's Day [2] - **Inventory Side**: The overall global inventory is relatively high. SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 157,025 tons on December 24; COMEX inventory increased to 479,540 short tons, strengthening the expectation of oversupply [2] Price Trend Judgment - The copper futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with the price range expected to be between 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are the significant increase in LME inventory and the rise in scrap copper imports on the supply side suppressing prices, high copper prices on the demand side inhibiting consumption and year - end demand remaining weak, and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition providing long - term support but having limited short - term impact [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Spot Price**: On December 25, the SMM:1 copper price was 95,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from December 24. The discounts of premium copper, flat - price copper, and wet - process copper all deepened [5] - **Futures Price**: The SHFE price on December 25 was 95,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from December 24; the LME price on December 24 was 12,133 US dollars/ton, up from the previous day [5] - **Inventory**: LME inventory on December 25 increased by 6,861 tons to 59,083 tons; SHFE inventory on December 24 decreased slightly to 157,025 tons; COMEX inventory on December 24 increased to 479,540 short tons [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position situation, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Pure benzene is expected to remain in a high - inventory, weak - demand pattern in the short term, with prices oscillating weakly [4]. - Styrene's short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, and its price will maintain range - bound trading [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On December 23, the styrene main contract closed down 0.47% at 6,509 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.62% at 5,425 yuan/ton [2]. - **Costs**: On December 23, Brent crude oil closed at $58.0 per barrel (+$1.5 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $62.1 per barrel (+$1.6 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory at East China ports was 27.30 million tons (+1.30 million tons), and continued to accumulate. Styrene inventory at East China ports was 13.93 million tons (+0.46 million tons), and East China commercial inventory was 8.46 million tons (+0.23 million tons), entering the restocking phase [2]. - **Supply**: The pure benzene main contract basis was - 134 yuan/ton. The processing fees of CFR China and FOB South Korea increased slightly. The overall operating rate of styrene plants rose to 69.1% (+0.8 percentage points), but non - integrated plants were still in the loss zone [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for pure benzene's downstream was weak, with the operating rates of CPL, phenol, and aniline dropping significantly. Styrene's downstream entered the off - season, with the operating rates of EPS and PS declining and ABS operating at a low level [3]. - **Views** - **Pure benzene**: Overseas gasoline cracking spreads weakened, and the marginal support for aromatics from blending oil decreased. There was still some arrival pressure, and downstream提货 was weak. The supply - side processing fee improved slightly, but the demand was differentiated. Overall, it was in a high - inventory, weak - demand pattern [4]. - **Styrene**: Port and commercial inventories increased, and the market entered the pre - holiday restocking phase. The supply - side operating rate increased slightly, but non - integrated plants were still in the loss zone. The demand entered the off - season, and the production profit of downstream hard plastics was under pressure [4]. b. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene**: On December 23, the styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.47% to 6,509 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.62% to 5,425 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.61% and 2.65% respectively [6]. - **Production and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene**: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, China's styrene production increased by 2.32% to 34.2 million tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 million tons. Pure benzene port inventory across the country increased by 36.59% to 22.4 million tons [7]. - **Operating Rate**: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the operating rate of styrene in pure benzene's downstream increased by 1.56 percentage points to 68.9%. The operating rate of EPS in styrene's downstream increased by 1.61 percentage points to 56.4%, while the operating rate of ABS decreased by 2.90 percentage points to 68.3% [8]. c. Industry News - European Central Bank President Lagarde said the uncertainty of the inflation outlook was still higher than usual [9]. - The year - on - year growth rate of the US core CPI in November was 2.6%, the lowest since 2021 [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 224,000, lower than market expectations [9]. - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee said there was considerable room for interest rate cuts as long as inflation was clearly returning to the 2% target [9]. d. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on the prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of styrene and pure benzene, as well as their upstream and downstream products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [11][13][14][18][21][29][30][31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with a price range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory accumulation and falling import costs exert downward pressure, while weak demand in the home appliance sector and the trend of aluminum replacing copper dampen buying interest. However, positive macro sentiment, such as policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and geopolitical supply - chain risks, supports prices [3][47][48] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 23, 2025, the SHFE main contract price slightly dropped to 93,890 yuan/ton, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day. The basis generally weakened, with the discount on premium copper widening to - 180 yuan/ton, flat copper to - 230 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper to - 285 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) premium rose to 6.58 US dollars/ton on December 22 [1][41] - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,699 lots to 344,790 lots on December 22, 2025. LME inventory increased to 49,543 tons on December 23, SHFE inventory to 158,575 tons, and COMEX inventory also rose, indicating increased supply pressure [1][42] 2. Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The supply side is relatively loose. On December 23, 2025, the 2026 CIF import copper concentrate benchmark price dropped to 85 US dollars/ton, potentially reducing smelting costs. A subsidiary's acquisition of the Raura zinc polymetallic mine in Peru on December 19, 2025, increases medium - to - long - term supply potential. Global projects like the Marathon copper mine are progressing, but with limited short - term impact. LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories all increased, with a combined weekly increase of about 1.5% [2][43] - **Demand Side**: The demand side is under significant pressure. In November 2025, the production and sales of household air conditioners declined significantly year - on - year (domestic sales - 39.8%, exports - 25.6%) due to the expiration of policy incentives and high - inventory clearance. The discussion of aluminum replacing copper due to soaring copper prices may suppress copper consumption in the air - conditioning field. In refined copper rod exports, processing with imported materials dominates, but general - trade exports decreased by 81.92% year - on - year, showing uneven external demand [2][44] - **Inventory Side**: Inventories are generally accumulating. LME inventory increased to 49,543 tons, SHFE inventory to 158,575 tons, and COMEX inventory also rose. The weakening of premiums and discounts and the increase in inventory indicate a continued pattern of loose supply and demand [2][46] 3. Price Trend Judgment - Copper futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The accumulation of supply - side inventory and the decrease in import costs provide downward pressure, while weak demand in the home appliance sector and the trend of aluminum replacing copper dampen buying interest. However, positive macro sentiment, such as policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and geopolitical supply - chain risks, supports prices. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [3][47][48]

1. Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, while the demand side is weak, and the market is in a game between cost support and weak demand [3][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 23, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 120,360 yuan/ton, up 5,980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a 5.23% increase. The basis weakened from - 13,580 yuan/ton to - 17,560 yuan/ton, a 29.31% decrease [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract slightly shrank from 671,889 lots to 671,573 lots, a 0.05% decrease. The trading volume dropped from 1,007,441 lots to 731,003 lots, a 27.44% decrease [1] 3.1.2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The raw material cost support increased. The market price of spodumene concentrate rose from 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22 to 11,145 yuan/ton on December 23, and that of lepidolite concentrate from 5,565 yuan/ton to 5,750 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants mainly focused on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%, indicating a tight overall supply without significant expansion [2] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. However, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year. The demand side was overall weak, and downstream material plants were cautious about high prices, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and long - term contract increases. The advancement of solid - state battery technology may affect medium - to - long - term demand expectations [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12 to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, reflecting a continued inventory reduction trend [2] 3.2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, power - type ternary material, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all increased. The basis weakened, and the main contract position slightly shrank, while the trading volume significantly decreased. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable. From December 12 to December 19, the lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. Some cell prices increased slightly, while others remained stable [5] 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1. Spot Market Quotation - On December 22, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price all increased. The lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillating pattern, mainly driven by capital sentiment. Downstream cathode material plants were cautious about high prices, and actual market transactions were limited. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing [6] 3.3.2. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the Passenger Car Association data on December 17, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year but increased by 1% month - on - month, and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year and 14% month - on - month [7] 3.3.3. Industry News - On December 16, it was reported that all - solid - state batteries are expected to be put into small - scale production and vehicle installation from 2026 - 2027, with different energy density targets in different periods. On December 11, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its lithium iron phosphate project to produce high - density lithium iron phosphate products [8][9] 3.4. Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising lithium ore raw material costs, and the stable capacity utilization rate and scarce spot transactions limit the downward price space. Although new energy vehicle sales have declined year - on - year and downstream purchases are cautious, the slight inventory decrease and the slight increase in cathode material prices provide basic support. However, the significant shrinkage in trading volume and the slight decrease in positions indicate that capital sentiment is dominant, and the lack of strong short - term demand growth may suppress further price increases [3]