Report Title - Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] Report Date - September 17, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene market remains weak due to increased supply from restarted and new - added plants, weak demand from downstream industries, and limited cost support from crude oil. Short - term market is likely to stay in weak and volatile consolidation [2] - Styrene has shown a temporary stabilization due to sudden production cuts. However, demand improvement is limited, and if there is no continuous maintenance or significant policy support, the medium - term market will fluctuate with crude oil prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Prices**: On September 16, the styrene main contract rose 1.00% to 7158 yuan/ton with a basis of 37 (+9 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 0.68% to 6073 yuan/ton [2] - **Costs**: On September 16, Brent crude closed at 63.3 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 67.4 dollars/barrel (+0.5 dollars/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot price was 5970 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased as some plants were under maintenance. Weekly production was 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and capacity utilization was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream 3S industries had different capacity utilization changes. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply - side production increased due to restarted and new - added plants, while demand was weak as downstream industries'开工 rates declined. With limited crude - oil cost support, the market is likely to stay weak in the short term [2] - **Styrene**: Temporary supply cuts led to a price rebound, but demand improvement was limited. If maintenance doesn't continue or there are no policy incentives, the medium - term market will fluctuate with crude oil [3] 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures and spot prices, basis, and pure benzene futures and spot prices all had certain increases on September 16 compared to September 15. Upstream crude oil prices also rose slightly [5] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From September 5 to September 12, styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased slightly by 0.49% to 45.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, while factory inventory increased by 2.52%. Pure benzene port inventory decreased by 3.36% [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - From September 5 to September 12, the capacity utilization of pure benzene downstream industries (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline) generally declined, while that of styrene downstream industries (EPS, ABS, PS) had mixed changes [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. China's refining and chemical industry faced intensified losses in the first half of 2025, and the country's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China [8] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, styrene and pure benzene inventory, and the capacity utilization of related industries [9][14][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper market may experience high - level oscillations. Supply - side disturbances and overseas inventory accumulation create a long - short game, while the resilience of domestic new energy demand supports the spot premium. Macro factors such as the fluctuation of the US dollar index and weak global manufacturing data may limit the upside space. The market pricing highly depends on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and market volatility may intensify after the Thursday's resolution [3]. - In the next one to two weeks, copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, with the price range likely between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars/ton (LME) [33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 81,000 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of SHFE copper showed that the premium of flat - water copper was 65 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 73.42 US dollars/ton [1]. - The open interest of the SHFE copper 2509 contract continued to shrink, with a daily reduction of 3,855 lots to 4,090 lots; the open interest of LME copper increased slightly by 2,464 lots to 291,554 lots [1]. Changes in Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply side: Small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of Congo reduced production due to tight hydropower supply, and Zambia restricted sulfuric acid exports, which may intensify the short - term supply shortage of wet - process copper. Zijin Copper's 200,000 - ton cathode copper expansion project supports medium - term production capacity but cannot alleviate the short - term shortage [2]. - Demand side: The relatively strong domestic spot premium indicates that there is still domestic restocking demand, but weak global manufacturing drags down overseas consumption [2]. - Inventory side: LME inventory soared to 25,560 tons on September 12, reaching a recent high, indicating potential overseas surplus pressure; SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 153,950 tons [2]. Market Summary - The short - term copper market may be in a high - level oscillation. The supply - side disturbances and overseas inventory accumulation form a long - short game, and the resilience of domestic new energy demand supports the spot premium. Macro factors may limit the upside space, and market volatility may intensify after the Thursday's resolution [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 09 - 15 | 2025 - 09 - 12 | 2025 - 09 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 81,070 | 81,080 | 80,270 | - 10 | - 0.01% | yuan/ton | | SMM:1 Copper (Flat - Water Copper) | 50 | 65 | 65 | - 15 | - 23.08% | yuan/ton | | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 70 | - 35 | - 40 | - 35 | - 100.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 62 | - 73 | - 62 | 11 | 15.65% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 80,830 | 80,800 | 80,090 | 30 | 0.04% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,189 | 10,065 | 10,057 | 125 | 1.24% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 30,643 | 25,560 | 20,028 | 5,083 | 19.89% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 152,625 | 153,950 | 154,175 | - 1,325 | - 0.86% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 311,847 | 310,487 | 309,834 | 1,360 | 0.44% | short tons | [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [6][7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical factors, oil prices are expected to oscillate within a high - end range. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting OPEC+ production increases. On the demand side, seasonal weakness coexists with Asian resilience, resulting in insufficient one - way driving forces. Before the Fed meeting, market caution will suppress risk appetite. Short - term oil prices may continue to oscillate at the upper end of the range, with risks of impulse - type increases due to geopolitical conflicts and corrections under macro - negative pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, 2025, crude oil futures prices showed differentiation. The SC main contract closed at 488.1 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent maintained narrow - range fluctuations. The SC - Brent spread dropped from $2.36/barrel on September 12 to - $0.15/barrel, indicating a significant narrowing of the domestic crude oil premium over the external market, even turning into a discount. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.77/barrel, a recent high, reflecting the support of geopolitical risks on European oil prices. The SC - WTI spread narrowed to $4.62/barrel, suggesting a compression of inter - regional arbitrage space [2]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but its complex policies and geopolitical situations (especially supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia) have two - way disturbances on the crude oil supply side. India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion, showing the resilience of Asian demand. Its imports may partially replace sanctioned Russian oil, alleviating the supply gap pressure. The impact of marginal changes in US shale oil drilling activities and tightened financial conditions on production remains to be observed [3]. - **Demand**: US oil demand is undergoing a seasonal transformation, weakening after the summer travel peak. Refineries entering the maintenance season may suppress short - term demand. Shrinking refined oil profits and expectations of Fed rate hikes suppress speculative demand, and market concerns about economic slowdown persist. However, high - level imports from emerging markets such as India may partially offset the weakening demand pressure in Europe and the US [4]. - **Inventory**: Current inventory data for Cushing and US commercial crude oil has not been updated, but the risk of an oil market surplus (accumulation of OECD country inventories) is gradually increasing. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan may further increase market supply. Geopolitical risks leading to the reshaping of trade flows may cause inventory fluctuations in non - OECD countries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC rose by 2.69% to 488.1 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.27% to $62.77/barrel, and Brent rose by 0.88% to $67.47/barrel. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices showed changes, with Oman rising by 1.71% to $70.95/barrel and Dubai rising by 2.13% to $71.12/barrel. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased by 806.67% to $1.06/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 39.47% to $5.76/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 9.1% to $4.70/barrel. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.30% to 97.32, the S&P 500 increased by 0.47% to 6,615.28 points, and the DAX index increased by 0.21% to 23,748.86 points. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.94% to 42,464.60 million barrels, Cushing inventory decreased by 1.51% to 2,385.70 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.64% to 94.90% [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU rose by 3.02% to 2,799 yuan/ton, LU increased by 3.31% to 3,375 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.65% to 232.90 cents/gallon. - **Spot and Paper Prices**: Some prices remained unchanged, while the Russian M100 CIF price increased by 2.03% to $452/ton. - **Spreads**: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.73% to 576 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 5.53% to - 1,845 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Some inventory data showed decreases, such as Singapore's inventory decreasing by 3.18% to 2,652.80 million [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On September 15, India's trade ministry reported that India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion and gold imports reached $514 million [10]. - **Market Information**: OPEC+ continues to increase production but with complex policies. Geopolitical situations have resurfaced. The crude oil price strengthened and consolidated last week with limited amplitude. This week, the market will continue to focus on geopolitical developments. Supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia still support the oil market, but the seasonal transformation of US oil demand and the prospect of an oil market surplus will continue to exert pressure. With the Fed meeting approaching, the market is cautious, and crude oil prices are expected to remain in consolidation with continued volatility [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [13][15][17]

碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约9月15日价格小幅回落至71160元/吨，跌 幅约2.4%；基差走弱至1140元/吨，现货市场跌幅大于期货，市场对远期供 需平衡的预期有所松动。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从35.1万手降至30.9万手，降幅12%，成交量 从59.2万手收缩至41.1万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持在66.41%的稳定水平，供给端尚未见 明显调整。宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复产推进但11月前影响有限，当前供给主 力仍依赖锂辉石路线，而锂云母路线占比降至15%。 需求端：下游正极材料价格总体持稳，三元材料微涨0.08%至119450元/ 吨，铁锂价格持平；三元电芯价格普遍上涨0.4%-2.5%。但需求增速边际放 缓，9月前两周新能源车零售量同比下降3%，尽管批发量同比增长5%，旺季 备库需求兑现存在不确定性。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂社会库存连续两周下降，从14.0万吨降至13.9万吨， 降幅1.1%，部分反映节前备货启动。 市场小结 计价复产探底回升，碳酸锂或能再接反内卷东风 一、日度市场总结 短期碳酸锂市场或维持低位震荡。供给端在锂辉石路线主导下 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market is in a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply has increased due to the restart of some units and new production capacity. Demand is sluggish with weak downstream industry开工 rates. With pressure on crude oil and lack of market confidence, the short - term market may fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Styrene**: There has been an unexpected supply tightening recently due to unplanned shutdowns. The market has a short - term price rebound, but demand is still divided and overall inventory is high. Without further support, the medium - term trend will mainly fluctuate with crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Section **I. Daily Market Summary** - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On September 15, the styrene main contract rose 0.95% to 7087 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (-22 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 0.73% to 6032 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 62.7 dollars/barrel (+0.3 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil was 67.0 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5945 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased. Weekly production was 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream 3S industries had different capacity utilization rates. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2]. **II. Industry Chain Data Monitoring** - **Prices**: From September 11 - 12, styrene futures and spot prices decreased, while the basis increased. Pure benzene prices generally decreased, and upstream prices of Brent, WTI, and naphtha also decreased [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: From September 5 - 12, styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased slightly by 0.49% to 45.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased, while factory inventory increased. Pure benzene port inventory decreased [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From September 5 - 12, the capacity utilization of pure benzene downstream industries (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline) decreased, while that of styrene downstream industries (EPS, ABS, PS) generally increased [7]. **III. Industry News** - The US imposed high tariffs on Asian chemical products, leading to structural adjustments in the global petrochemical industry [8]. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry losses increased by about 8.3% year - on - year, with the refining and chemical sector losing over 9 billion yuan [8]. - China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated development in South and Northeast China [8]. **IV. Industry Chain Data Charts** - The report provides multiple charts on prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][21]

成本端疲软弱化利多预期，PX&PTA期现承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 需求端：尽管轻纺城单日成交环比明显放量，但当前聚酯环节仍处需求博 弈期。下游聚酯工厂负荷虽维持刚性，但坯布订单传导节奏偏慢导致涤丝 产销波动较大，旺季需求预期尚未被完全兑现。坯布库存消化进程与终端 消费增量能否匹配仍待验证，短期聚酯环节对PTA的采购支撑力度边际转 弱。 库存端：PTA工厂库存延续累库趋势，社会库存维持高位表明现货流动性压 力未减。加工费持续低位运行制约工厂减产意愿，而PX库存同步攀升导致 产业链上游积压压力向中游传导。在供需宽松格局下，库存矛盾仍将压制 现货贴水修复空间，被动累库节奏或延续至旺季订单落地阶段。 2. 聚酯 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月12日，PX 主力合约收6712.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%，基差 为-47.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4648.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.85%， 基差为-78.0元/吨。 成本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand recovery of ethylene glycol is facing challenges, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Currently, ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost side restricts the price from falling sharply, but there is no new cost support. The demand side lacks incremental boost, and the high inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level, and if the demand fails to substantially improve, the lower support may be tested [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On September 12, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract oscillated downward to 4,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/0.7% from the previous day. The East China spot price also fell to 4,380 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), but the basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The inter - delivery spread showed an intensified contango, with the 5 - 9 spread widening negatively to - 89 yuan/ton, indicating deepening concerns about future supply [2] - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume of the main contract remained around 134,000 lots, while the open interest increased by 8,245 lots to 317,000 lots, suggesting intensified long - short game [2] - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 71.24%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based plants were flat at 74.6% and 66.74% respectively. The coal - based profit continued to be deeply in the red at 368 yuan/ton, with no further expansion of losses but lack of repair momentum [2] - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining flat for more than two weeks. Due to the off - season pressure in the terminal textile industry, the downstream replenishment demand was weak and could not effectively drive the raw materials [3] - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. Although the weekly arrival volume decreased by 39.7% to 101,700 tons, the port inventory accumulation reflected that the source digestion speed lagged far behind the arrival rhythm, highlighting the inventory pressure [3] - **震荡偏弱运行**: Ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The coal - based loss restricts the price from falling sharply, but the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha have not provided new cost support for oil - based profits. The polyester and loom loads are stable but lack incremental boost, and the high - level inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main contract price of MEG futures was 4,272 yuan/ton on September 12, down 30 yuan (-0.7%) from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,380 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.57%) [4] - **价差情况**: The MEG basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 31 yuan to - 89 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to 136 yuan/ton [4] - **利润情况**: The coal - based profit remained at - 368 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 71.2%, and the coal - based and oil - based operating rates were 66.7% and 74.6% respectively, all remaining unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was 63.4%, also unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a surge of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [4] Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 12, the East China US - dollar market followed the domestic market to weaken. In the morning, the negotiation price of October shipments was in the range of 512 - 515 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, that of near - month shipments was in the range of 514 - 517 US dollars/ton, with no reported transactions [5] - On September 12, the mainstream market price fell, but the ethylene glycol price in the South China market had reached a low level, and the quotations of holders remained stable. The market negotiation atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,460 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 12, due to concerns about oversupply, the international crude oil price declined, the cost - side support weakened, and the spot basis was weak. The current negotiation price in East China was around 4,370 yuan/ton [5] - On September 12, the spot quotation in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market was lowered, with the average market price around 3,970 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [5] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The decrease in the main contract price and the increase in the basis may indicate that the spot is more resistant to decline or the market has a weak future expectation [22] - The increase in open interest and the significant change in the 5 - 9 spread may reflect the bearish sentiment towards the far - month contract [22] - The stable supply - side operating rate and the unchanged demand - side load, combined with the inventory accumulation, suggest weak demand and difficult de - stocking [23] - Given the high inventory pressure, weak demand, and certain cost - side support, the ethylene glycol price may continue to be weak and may even decline further [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, with slow inventory reduction and weak short - term trends [2] - Styrene has limited supply reduction in the short term, demand increase is limited, and short - term trends are mainly fluctuating [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On September 12, the styrene main contract closed down 0.86% at 7,020 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 (+6 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.86% at 5,988 yuan/ton [2] - On September 12, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4 per barrel (-$1.3 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.4 per barrel (-$1.1 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,895 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene inventory was 17.7 tons (-2.0 tons), a 10.2% month - on - month inventory reduction; pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.5 tons), a 3.4% month - on - month inventory reduction [2] - Styrene production in September will have equipment maintenance, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly production of styrene is 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 75.0% (-4.8%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of the three downstream products of styrene varied. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, with slow inventory reduction, and short - term trends are weak and fluctuating [2] - Styrene: Supply reduction provides some support, but supply pressure remains, demand increase is limited, and short - term trends are mainly fluctuating [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Prices - On September 12, the styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.86% to 7,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 1.00% to 7,320 yuan/ton; the pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.86% to 5,988 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.67% to 5,895 yuan/ton [5] - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.04% to $62.4 per barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.66% to $66.4 per barrel [5] Production and Inventory - From September 5 to September 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% to 45.6 tons [6] - During the same period, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18% to 17.7 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.52% to 22.0 tons; pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% to 14.4 tons [6] Capacity Utilization Rates - From September 5 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 4.76% to 75.0%, and the capacity utilization rates of other downstream products also decreased to varying degrees [7] - Among the styrene downstream products, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 8.19% to 61.0%, ABS increased by 1.00% to 70.0%, and PS increased by 0.90% to 61.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, etc., and the data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][11][21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The current market contradiction lies in the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the mine - restart news, factors such as spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and rigid procurement during the peak season still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics such as Jianxiaowo may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Analysis** - **主力合约与基差**: On September 10, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous decline trend. The basis strengthened to 2,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The open interest decreased by 3% to 341,000 lots, declining for five consecutive trading days. The trading volume rebounded significantly by 27% to 751,000 lots [1]. - **产业链供需及库存变化分析** - **供给端**: Ningde Times' subsidiary planned to restart the Jianxiaowo lithium mine in November, which may release an increment of spodumene raw materials. However, short - term supply still depends on existing production capacity. The output of lithium carbonate from the spodumene route accounts for over 60%, while the proportion of the salt lake and mica routes has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 66.41% without an increase, limiting the short - term supply growth rate [2]. - **需求端**: In August, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 5% year - on - year and 9% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3%, showing the resilience of peak - season demand. However, there was a differentiation in the cathode material segment. The discount coefficient of ternary materials may be raised in September, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, reflecting an increase in downstream cost sensitivity. The price of cobalt - acid lithium in the cell segment jumped by 5% to 6.25 yuan/Ah, but its impact on lithium carbonate demand was limited [2]. - **库存与仓单**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.74% to 140,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the narrowing of the spot discount and active downstream bargain - hunting purchases, it indicated a marginal improvement in short - term supply and demand in the spot market [2]. - **价格走势判断**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The market contradiction is concentrated between the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the restart news, spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and peak - season rigid procurement still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **价格变动**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2,180 yuan to 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline. The basis increased by 680 yuan to 2,280 yuan/ton, a 42.50% increase. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10,526 lots to 340,814 lots, a 3.00% decline. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 159,805 lots to 751,480 lots, a 27.01% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan to 73,000 yuan/ton, a 2.01% decline. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 275 yuan to 33,620 yuan/ton, a 0.81% decline. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.30 yuan to 6.25 yuan/Ah, a 5.04% increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **现货市场报价**: On September 10, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The futures price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, and the downstream material factories' enthusiasm for price - setting significantly increased. In September, the market shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a temporary supply shortage this month [6]. - **下游消费情况**: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.079 million, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 55.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [7]. - **行业新闻**: On September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to discuss the restart of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, aiming to restart production in November, but whether the goal can be achieved is uncertain. The settlement discount of ternary cathode materials is expected to be raised in September. The demand for ternary precursors is expected to continue to rise in September [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak demand and inventory pressure, ethylene glycol is likely to continue its downward trend. The price center may further test the support level of the next range, and if port destocking continues to face obstacles and demand does not improve, the downward pressure may increase [1][2] - Supply has a slight decline, but demand remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is increasing, especially the rapid accumulation of port inventory, which may suppress prices. Although the strengthening basis shows that the spot is relatively resistant to decline, the weakness of the futures main contract and the shrinking trading volume indicate insufficient market confidence. Therefore, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side and demand recovery [22][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped slightly by 3 yuan to 4,319 yuan/ton, showing a four - day oscillating decline. The East China spot price also fell by 5 yuan to 4,435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 3 yuan to 121 yuan/ton, indicating a premium structure of the spot relative to the futures. The far - month spread fluctuated significantly, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to - 37 yuan and the 5 - 9 spread changing from premium to discount of 12 yuan, suggesting a weak market expectation for medium - term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 77,639 lots to 106,908 lots (a decline of 42%), and the position decreased slightly by 190 lots, reflecting a decrease in market trading activity and an increase in the wait - and - see sentiment of funds [1] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate dropped slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 71.24%. Among them, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, while the coal - based and methanol - based plant operating rates remained stable. Despite the continuous loss of coal - based production at - 338 yuan/ton, the willingness to overhaul did not increase significantly, and the overall supply remained at a high level [1] - **Demand Side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a low level of 63.43% for many consecutive days. Terminal orders showed no improvement, and the rigid demand support of the polyester segment for ethylene glycol was limited [1] 2. Inventory and Related Analysis - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port increased to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons, reaching a recent high. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, the port inventory accumulation pressure remained unresolved [2] - **Cost - Supply and Demand Relationship**: The coal - based production continued to incur losses, but the plants did not significantly reduce production. The oil - based and methanol - based operating rates remained stable, and the overall supply was loose. The rigid demand support of polyester was insufficient, the terminal weaving operating rate remained low, and the inventory climbed to a new high this year, suppressing market confidence [2] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 10, the East China US dollar market negotiation remained stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable, with the market average price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was stable, and downstream players purchased as needed. The South China market spot was weakly stable, with the market negotiation atmosphere being cold, and the current price around 4,470 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 10, market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supported the rise in oil prices. However, the commissioning of new ethylene glycol plants has been further implemented, and the spot basis in the market has narrowly shrunk. The current negotiation reference price in East China is around 4,437 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10]