Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pure benzene market is experiencing weak demand, with rising port inventories and ongoing supply pressure. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the oversupply situation will persist. [2][3] - The styrene market is facing a mismatch between supply and demand, with low demand unable to support price rebounds. Although macro - policy may provide some support, the weak supply - demand pattern will continue. [4][5] 3. Summary by Section Pure Benzene - **Market Overview**: The pure benzene market is operating weakly, with port inventories rising again and increasing supply pressure. Downstream开工率 is low, and product inventories in some industries are high, dragging down demand. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is abundant, but due to weak downstream demand, the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved. The weak demand has led to a lack of price support and increased supply pressure. [3] - **Market Outlook**: Given the continued low - level downstream demand and high inventories in some industries, the demand side of the pure benzene market is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Port inventories may remain high in the coming weeks, and the basis may continue to weaken. [3] - **Key Indicators**: Supply is sufficient, port inventories are rising, downstream开工率 is falling, the monthly spread is weak, and the basis is weakening. The international arbitrage window is closed. [7] - **Supply Details**: Last week, new maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical, Shengxing Petrochemical, Urumqi Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical occurred, but overall supply remained high. For hydrobenzene, there is more spot supply, and some plants have reduced their loads. [10] - **Import Situation**: Pure benzene imports are rising. Affected by US tariff policies, the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and most of South Korea's pure benzene is flowing to China, increasing import pressure. [12][14] - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream profits are weakening, and开工率 is seasonally declining. Overall demand is weakening, and downstream inventories are generally high. [16][18][23] - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 22, pure benzene port inventories were 99,000 tons, up 9,000 tons from last week. Due to weak downstream demand, inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. [28] - **Price Spread**: The pure benzene - naphtha price spread weakened after a brief recovery, and the BZN spread is low, indicating low pure benzene valuation. [30][32] Styrene - **Market Overview**: The styrene market continues to operate weakly, with significant pressure on both the supply and demand sides. Although downstream开工率 has increased,提货 performance is average, and port inventories are under pressure. [4] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there are still maintenance plans, which may lead to some production cuts. However, new plants will impact the market supply. Downstream demand growth is limited due to weak terminal demand and high inventories in some downstream industries. [4] - **Cost and Price**: The non - integrated cost of styrene has decreased due to falling international oil prices, and losses have deepened. Although the supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and the downward space is relatively limited due to potential macro - policy support in late October. [4] - **Market Outlook**: This week, styrene production is expected to decline slightly due to previous plant shutdowns. However, considering the concentrated downstream production in November and December, the supply - demand mismatch may intensify, and the weak supply - demand pattern will continue. [5] - **Key Indicators**: Supply has decreased slightly, downstream demand recovery space is limited, the EB2511 - EB2512 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage, and port inventories are still high. [7] - **Production Situation**: Styrene开工率 has declined, and production has decreased. In September, production decreased but was still higher than in previous periods. The cumulative supply from January to September increased by 17.28% year - on - year. [36][38] - **Import and Export Situation**: In September, styrene imports were 26,200 tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and exports were 31,500 tons, showing significant year - on - year and month - on - month growth. [41] - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 22, styrene port inventories increased to 203,000 tons, up 6,000 tons from last week. Inventories are likely to continue to accumulate in late October. [45] - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream开工率 has weakened, and the profits of 3S products have declined. Downstream production is high, and there are no obvious signs of inventory reduction. [47][55] - **Basis Situation**: The styrene basis has been fluctuating narrowly. Due to weak downstream demand and high inventories, the basis is still weak and may decline further in the future. [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The macro - favorable factors have led to a rebound in the benzene and styrene markets, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains poor. The pure benzene market is weakly operating with increased supply pressure and weak demand, and the styrene market has pressure on both the supply and demand sides, with a potential supply - demand mismatch in the future [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - **Price**: On October 22, the styrene main contract closed up 1.55% at 6,538 yuan/ton with a basis of - 28 (- 55 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 1.59% at 5,563 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,510 yuan/ton (+ 87/ton) [2] - **Cost**: On October 22, Brent crude oil closed at $57.2 per barrel (+ $0.2 per barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $61.3 per barrel (+ $0.3 per barrel) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 19.7 tons (- 0.5 tons), a 2.7% month - on - month destocking, and further inventory accumulation. Pure benzene port inventory was 9.0 tons (- 0.1 tons), a 1.1% month - on - month destocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene's production and capacity utilization decreased slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 33.9 tons (- 0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 71.9% (- 1.7%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 62.5% (+ 21.8%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 73.1% (+ 0.6%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 53.8% (- 0.8%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market has been operating weakly recently. Port inventory has risen again, increasing supply pressure. The downstream operating rates are low, and the inventories of some products are high, dragging down demand. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [2][3] - **Styrene**: Although the styrene market has rebounded, there are significant pressures on both the supply and demand sides. The supply will be affected by previous shutdowns, and production is expected to decline slightly this week. However, due to concentrated downstream production in November and December, there may be a supply - demand mismatch [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures rose 1.55% to 6,538 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The pure benzene futures rose 1.59% to 5,563 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price rose 1.19% to 5,510 yuan/ton. The prices of pure benzene in different regions showed different trends [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production decreased by 2.35% to 33.9 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 4.82% to 43.8 tons. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, and pure benzene port inventory also decreased [6] (3) Operating Rate - The capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene downstream industries decreased, while the capacity utilization rates of some styrene downstream industries increased [7] 3. Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports restarted, and production may further recover in October. US refineries are in autumn maintenance, and oil product demand has seasonally declined. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has eased the Middle East situation, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil has continued to decline [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, inventory, and capacity utilization rate, etc., with data sources including iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][16][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price may form a short - term premium driven by market news. Although there is an expectation of new capacity release on the supply side, factors such as the increase in spodumene cost and the time required for the ramp - up of salt lake lithium production capacity, as well as the short - term impact of some lithium mines' supplementary payment of lithium, tantalum, and niobium resource taxes and the 414 safety accident rumors, will push up the lithium price. The impact of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" on the demand side may fade in the short term, and the digestion of 130,000 tons of inventory and 30,000 warrants still raises concerns about oversupply [3]. - In October, although the supply of lithium carbonate is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, and it is expected to form a stage of tight supply [6]. - Considering the dual factors of increased supply and growing demand, the decline in inventory may lead to a short - term tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the impact of new capacity release, and there may be a risk of a high - level correction [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes** - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract remained at 75,700 yuan/ton, with the weekly price center gradually rising from 72,680 yuan/ton to 75,700 yuan/ton, showing signs of phased stabilization. The basis strengthened from - 2,600 yuan/ton to - 2,400 yuan/ton, the spot market quotation rebounded slightly, and the futures discount narrowed [1]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 12.93% to 138,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 53.84% to 169,000 lots, indicating a significant decline in market trading activity [1]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain** - **Supply Side**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 71.31% to 74.39%, a month - on - month increase of 4.32%, mainly due to the commissioning of salt lake lithium extraction projects and the optimization of the spodumene lithium extraction process. The price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3% to 6,685 yuan/ton, strengthening the cost support; the price of lepidolite remained stable at 3,400 yuan/ton, and the supply side showed an overall trend of incremental release [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of cathode materials continued to rise. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.62% to 34,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary materials also increased. The prices of downstream battery cells increased significantly, with the price of 523 square ternary battery cells jumping by 24.49%. The inventory replenishment demand of battery enterprises recovered. In terms of the terminal demand for new energy vehicles, from October 1 - 12, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 53.5%, and the manufacturers' wholesale volume increased by 1% year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory and Warrants**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.59% to 133,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the decrease in warrant registration volume, the market may enter a phased period of tight supply [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract remained unchanged at 75,700 yuan/ton from October 17 to October 20. The basis strengthened by 7.69% from - 2,600 yuan/ton to - 2,400 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 12.93%, and the trading volume decreased by 53.84%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.27%. The market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3% to 6,685 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 4.64%. The prices of power - type ternary materials and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.75% and 0.62% respectively. The prices of various types of battery cells also showed different degrees of increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On October 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,991 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 642 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 yuan/ton, both increasing by 650 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate, with the center of the main contract rising to the range of 75,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories' operating rates continued to rise, and demand supported spot transactions. On the supply side, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and it is expected that the total lithium carbonate production in October still has growth potential. On the demand side, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand. Overall, in October, although the supply is growing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, and it is expected to form a stage of tight supply [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 12, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide was 367,000, a year - on - year decrease of 1% compared with the same period last October but a 1% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 9.236 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The manufacturers' wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 328,000, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period last October but an 11% decrease compared with the same period last month. The manufacturers' wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 60.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 10.775 million, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: - On September 28, it was reported that on September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered the site, marking that the civil engineering project of the project has entered a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant [9]. - On September 26, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, with a total investment of about 1.8 billion yuan, was completed and put into production. This is the first project implemented and completed in Tianqi Lithium's "five - year strategic plan" and the second fully automated battery - grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) factory of Tianqi Lithium in Zhangjiagang [9]. - On September 26, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been in the works for four years, was officially put into production. The project's capacity release is expected to significantly improve the self - sufficiency rate of domestic lithium resources [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is expected to continue its low-level oscillation in the short term. The supply is stable, but the inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the downstream demand shows no obvious signs of improvement. High inventory and low trading volume may limit the price increase space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream demand changes [2][3][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the main ethylene glycol contract remained at 4003 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price in East China also remained stable at 4075 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton (spot premium), indicating no significant change in the futures-spot price difference structure. The short - term market lacks directional drivers [2] - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract decreased by 8944 lots to 331,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased slightly by 1542 lots to 159,000 lots. The simultaneous contraction of position and trading volume reflects a decline in market trading activity and an increase in capital's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 71.04%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 76.49% and 62.95% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based plants generally recovered, but the coal - based profits declined slightly. There may be marginal production increase motivation for oil - based plants, but the current operating rate has not reflected it [2] - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained at 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable at 63.43%. The terminal weaving demand has not improved, and the "scissors gap" between high polyester operation and low weaving machine load continues, which may lead to the transmission of polyester finished product inventory pressure to the raw material end [2] - **库存端**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang also increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons. The port inventory accumulation accelerated, reflecting the contradiction between import arrival pressure and insufficient domestic demand bearing capacity [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main MEG futures contract price remained at 4003 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 and a recent increase/decrease of 0.00%. The spot price in the East China market was 4075 yuan/ton, also unchanged [5] - **成交与持仓**: The trading volume of the main MEG futures contract decreased by 1542 lots to 158,594 lots, a decrease of 0.96%. The position decreased by 8944 lots to 331,426 lots, a decrease of 2.63% [5] - **利润情况**: The profits of ethylene - based production methods such as SD oxidation method, SHELL oxidation method, etc. increased, while the coal - based profit decreased by 23 yuan to 388 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas - based and oil - field associated gas - based production remained unchanged [5] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, and weaving machine loads in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, with a recent increase/decrease of 0.00% [5] - **库存与到港量**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, a 7.02% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons, a 12.12% increase [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 20, the focus of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market remained stable in the morning, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 480 - 484 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar market was deadlocked, with the negotiation range at 479 - 482 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On October 20, the mainstream market was operating at a low level. The South China market had limited fluctuations, the quotations of holders remained stable, and the market transactions were light, with the current price around 4250 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On October 20, international oil prices declined in the morning, but coal prices were strongly supported. Port inventories accumulated, and downstream players made low - level purchases. The market was deadlocked, with the current East China price negotiation reference around 4106 yuan/ton [6] - On October 20, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi was raised, with the market average price around 3800 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was operating at a low level, the manufacturers' shipments were smooth, and the quotations of Shaanxi goods were raised [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene and styrene markets continue to be in a weak pattern due to the weak oil prices. The short - term price of pure benzene may maintain a weak and volatile trend, and styrene may continue the weak and volatile pattern [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On October 20, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.82% at 6365 yuan/ton, with a basis of 65 (+53 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.89% at 5461 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5465 yuan/ton (-120/ton) [2] - **Cost**: On October 20, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 57.2 dollars/barrel (+0.2 dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 61.3 dollars/barrel (+0.2 dollars/barrel) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 19.7 tons (-0.5 tons), a 2.7% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 9.0 tons (-0.1 tons), a 1.1% decrease [2] - **Supply**: The styrene production and capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The weekly output of styrene was 33.9 tons (-0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 71.9% (-1.7%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 62.5% (+21.8%), ABS was 73.1% (+0.6%), and PS was 53.8% (-0.8%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand of the crude oil market remains loose. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November. The global oil consumption enters the seasonal off - peak. The supply of pure benzene remains high, while the demand is insufficient due to the maintenance of downstream industries. The short - term price may be weak and volatile [2] - **Styrene**: The styrene market maintains a weak and volatile trend. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is affected by insufficient terminal orders and falling raw material prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price may continue the weak pattern [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot decreased to varying degrees from October 17 to 20. The basis of styrene increased by 441.67%. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased slightly, while the price of naphtha decreased by 0.34% [5] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From October 10 to 17, the production of styrene in China decreased by 2.35% to 33.9 tons, and the production of pure benzene decreased by 4.82% to 43.8 tons. The inventories of styrene and pure benzene in ports and factories also decreased [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene downstream industries decreased, such as styrene (-1.73%), caprolactam (-3.59%), etc. Among styrene downstream industries, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 21.78%, ABS increased by 0.50%, and PS decreased by 0.80% [7] 3. Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. The oil production in Iraq's Kurdistan region may further recover in October. US refineries enter autumn maintenance, and the EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels last week. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas eases the tension in the Middle East, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil continues to decline [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc., with data sources including iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][13][16]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are likely to continue oscillating at low levels, with geopolitical support at the bottom but limited upward momentum [5] - In the short term, the shutdown of Russian refineries and the "rush to transport" demand before the implementation of EU sanctions may provide marginal support for oil prices, but the discovery of new oil fields by BP, the price cut of gasoline in Brazil, and the strengthening of the substitution effect of renewable fuels in the US have strengthened the expectation of loose supply [5] - On the demand side, weak industrial data in China and energy transition policies in Europe and the US have suppressed refinery operating rates, and the strengthening of the SC - WTI spread may stimulate an increase in arbitrage shipments, all of which limit the rebound space of oil prices [5] - If the geopolitical conflict does not escalate further, oil prices may continue to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 20, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.18% to 435.8 yuan/barrel, while the prices of WTI and Brent remained flat at $57.25/barrel and $61.34/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread rebounded from -$0.3/barrel to -$0.16/barrel (a 46.67% increase), and the SC - WTI spread strengthened to $3.93/barrel, indicating a narrowing of the discount of Chinese crude oil futures relative to the external market. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive 3 widened to -5.9 yuan/barrel, showing that the market's expectation of tight future supply has loosened [1] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: The suspension of production at Russia's new Kuybyshevsk refinery due to a drone attack may affect Russian refined oil exports in the short term, but the Russian Foreign Ministry reaffirmed normal oil transportation to India, indicating that the actual impact of geopolitical risks on crude oil supply is limited. The EU's proposal to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by 2028 may weaken Russia's energy revenue in the long term, but the market reaction is dull in the short term due to the long policy implementation cycle. BP's discovery of a new oil field in Namibia and Petrobras' 4.9% cut in gasoline prices may imply that the production increase pressure from non - OPEC+ countries still exists [2] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: The increase in the blending volume of renewable fuels in the US in September, combined with the continuous promotion of energy transition policies, may form a substitution pressure on traditional crude oil demand. In China, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size slowed down to 5.0% in September (previous value: 5.2%), and the GDP in the third quarter did not meet expectations. Weak industrial activities may suppress crude oil import demand. The significant decline in fuel oil warehouse receipts is related to the recovery of refinery profits, but the terminal consumption of refined oil has not significantly improved [3] - **Inventory - Side Analysis**: There are no signs of unexpected inventory accumulation in Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories in the US, but the SC crude oil warehouse receipts remain at a high level of 5.21 million barrels. Coupled with the continuous pressure on the near - month contracts of WTI and Brent, it reflects that the global crude oil market is still in a pattern of loose supply and demand [4] - **Price Trend Judgment**: Crude oil prices may continue to oscillate at low levels, with geopolitical support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. In the short term, the shutdown of Russian refineries and the "rush to transport" demand before the implementation of EU sanctions may provide marginal support for oil prices, but the discovery of new oil fields by BP, the price cut of gasoline in Brazil, and the strengthening of the substitution effect of renewable fuels in the US have strengthened the expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, weak industrial data in China and energy transition policies in Europe and the US have suppressed refinery operating rates, and the strengthening of the SC - WTI spread may stimulate an increase in arbitrage shipments, all of which limit the rebound space of oil prices. If the geopolitical conflict does not escalate further, oil prices may continue to decline [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On October 20, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.18% to 435.8 yuan/barrel, while the prices of WTI and Brent decreased slightly. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened, and the spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive 3 widened. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.84%, the Cushing inventory decreased by 3.10%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.19%. The API inventory increased by 1.66%. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 7.25%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 7.16% [7] - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of FU and LU futures increased slightly, and the price of NYMEX fuel oil also increased slightly. Most of the spot and paper - cargo prices remained unchanged. The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased, and the Singapore inventory increased by 5.89% [8] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On October 20, Russia's new Kuybyshevsk refinery suspended production due to a drone attack. The EU passed a proposal to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [9][10] - **Demand**: Brazil's state - owned oil company Petrobras cut the wholesale price of gasoline by 4.9%. The blending volume of renewable fuels in the US in September increased compared with August [11] - **Inventory**: The SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.21 million barrels, and the fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 13,570 tons [4][8] - **Market Information**: As of October 21, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined. Analysts believe that weak growth expectations, energy transition, and tariff tensions have suppressed the overall outlook for crude oil [13][14] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., which comprehensively reflect the supply, demand, and price trends of the crude oil and fuel oil markets [16][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to the weakening cost support and inventory pressure. The PX - PTA segment faces dual pressures from cost and demand, and the downstream products' price cuts for inventory reduction may further squeeze profit margins [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Price**: On October 20, the PX main contract closed at 6,268.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -37.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,384.0 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a basis of -44.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 57.25 US dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply**: The PX plant operating rate shows no obvious contraction signal, and with the expected new capacity, there is still incremental pressure on the supply side. The PTA plant maintenance is insufficient, the operating rate remains at a medium - high level, and the expected new plant commissioning will intensify the supply - loose pattern. The decline in the crude oil price center weakens the PX cost support, and the PX processing fee is expected to be compressed, which may force the PTA cost line to sink [2]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory operating rate is restricted by the weak terminal orders. The 15 - day average turnover of China Textile City decreased by 23.7% month - on - month, and the falsification of peak - season demand accelerates the negative feedback transmission in the industrial chain. The low sales rate of polyester filament suppresses the polyester operating elasticity, and the marginal driving force on the PTA demand side is further weakened [3]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory has exceeded the high point of the same period in the past three years, and the social inventory days have climbed to 7 - 8 days. The continuous weakening of the inter - month spread reflects the intensifying inventory - accumulation pressure. In the low - processing - fee environment, the factory's price - support ability is weakened, and the high inventory may force the plant to reduce production in advance, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - **Price**: On October 20, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,028.0 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,285.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 257.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The MA15 turnover of China Textile City decreased from 851.8 million meters on October 10 to 855.87 million meters on October 20, indicating weak terminal textile demand [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of polyester staple fiber (6.11 days), polyester filament DTY (31.5 days), and FDY (26.1 days) are all higher than the 5 - year average values (4.96/28.42/22.19 days). The inventory pressure of DTY is significant, and although the POY inventory (16.8 days) is lower than the average of 20.40 days, the de - stocking rhythm is blocked [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.38%, the trading volume increased by 36.35%, and the open interest increased by 10.50%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.41%, the trading volume increased by 14.03%, and the open interest increased by 4.00%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA 1 - 5, 5 - 9 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 1 spread increased. The import profit decreased slightly [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.13%, the trading volume decreased by 7.67%, and the open interest decreased by 0.58%. The spot price in the East China market decreased slightly, and the PF 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads increased, while the 5 - 9 spread decreased [5]. - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, and most polyester filaments remained unchanged, while the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.27% [5]. - **Processing spreads**: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, and most polyester filaments remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread decreased by 1.26%, and the polyester bottle chip processing spread decreased by 6.36% [6]. - **Light - textile city turnover**: The total turnover on October 20 was 653 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03%. The turnover of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 19.48%, and that of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 42.79% [6]. - **Industrial chain load rate**: The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [6]. - **Inventory days**: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 19.39%, while those of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 23.53%, 8.30%, and 9.00% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 20, Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another interest - rate cut. The Israel - Hamas conflict continued with various statements and actions from both sides [7]. - On October 17, various Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The World Gold Council research head said the gold market was not saturated, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange called for risk control [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand On October 20, the total turnover of China Textile City was 653.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03%, with 529.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric turnover and 123.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric turnover [9]. 3.4 Appendix - Analysis of Future Price Trends - **Supply side**: PX and PTA may have sufficient supply. The high operating rate of PX and PTA plants and the expected new capacity may lead to an oversupply situation. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the impact on supply also depends on refineries' production willingness [36]. - **Demand side**: The turnover of China Textile City has declined, indicating weak polyester demand. The weak downstream demand may lead to a decline in polyester operating rates, which in turn suppresses PTA prices [37]. - **Inventory side**: The high PTA factory inventory indicates great inventory - accumulation pressure. The combination of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory may lead to further inventory accumulation and price suppression [37].

成本支撑差叠加库存压力，乙二醇延续偏弱格局 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ： 需求端 ： 下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终端需求未见 增量信号，旺季效应趋弱。 库存端 ： 华东主港库存环比增加3.4万吨至54.1万吨，创近期新高，但张家港库存下 降1.3万吨，区域分化显示港口到货压力仍存但局部去库。 乙二醇短期或延续低位震荡格局。核心矛盾在于： 1）成本端分化加剧，乙烯法装置利润修复可能支撑油制产能释放，但煤制 利润收缩限制供应弹性； 2）港口库存持续累积压制市场情绪，但下游刚性需求仍对价格形成底部支 撑； 乙二醇主力合约价格从4089元/吨下跌至4003元/吨，单日跌幅2.1%，呈现 连续回调趋势；华东现货价格同步下跌80元/吨至4075元/吨，期现基差小 幅走强，显示现货跌幅略缓于期货。 持仓与成交 ： 主力合约持仓量增加6474手至34.04万手，但成交量减少7.95%至16万手， ...

成本坍塌叠加累库预期，PX-PTA承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 10月17日，PX 主力合约收6292.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.32%，基差 为-59.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4402.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.21%， 基差为-42.0元/吨。 成本端，10月17日，布油主力合约收盘61.02美元/桶。WTI收56.95美元/ 桶。需求端，10月17日，轻纺城成交总量为871.0万米，15 日平均成交为 857.0万米。 供给端 ：PX及PTA供应存宽松预期。PX端，四季度国内新增装置投产压力 有限，但部分大型装置（如浙江石化200万吨）可能重启叠加低加工费下存 量装置或保持高负荷，PX整体供应仍有回升空间；PTA端，中泰120万吨装 置重启及逸盛新材料提负预期下，供应边际增加，但当前加工费压缩至300 元/吨以下或引发高成本装置检修对冲增量，短期供给弹性增大。 需求端 ：负反馈压力逐步显现 ...