成本松动难提供支撑，需求弱现实拖累聚酯原料盘面 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 07月04日，PX 主力合约收6672.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.01%，基差为 170.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4710.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.76%，基 差为170.0元/吨。 成本端，07月04日，布油主力合约收盘68.85美元/桶。WTI收67.18美元/ 桶。需求端，07月04日，轻纺城成交总量为696.0万米，15 日平均成交为 645.33万米。 PX：PX价格短期可能继续承压，国际油价疲弱导致成本支撑不足，虽然基 差较高反映现货偏紧，但原油端波动叠加终端需求仍未明显转暖，预计期 货价格或维持弱势震荡。 PTA：PTA下方空间受限，上游PX走弱压制成本，但下游轻纺城成交持续回 升显示需求边际改善，聚酯负荷稳定叠加加工费偏低背景下，PTA或呈现成 本与需求博弈下的窄幅波动格局。 2. 聚酯 07月04日，短纤主力合约收6514.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.76%。华东 市场现货价为67 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The crude oil market is facing a game between accelerating supply return and weak demand recovery. OPEC+ accelerating production increase may drive the global crude oil market from destocking to a slight restocking phase, but the low OECD commercial inventory still supports the price. In the third quarter, the oil price may show a volatile downward pattern, and the fluctuation center is restricted by the trade - off between OPEC+'s actual production increase execution rate and the northern hemisphere's summer refinery operating rate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4 - 5, the SC crude oil main contract price fell 1.03% to 503.5 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $67.18 and $68.85 per barrel respectively. The cross - regional spreads of SC with Brent and WTI narrowed, and the near - far month spread (SC continuous - continuous 3) also narrowed, indicating a marginal relief of the market's expectation of tight future supply [2]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, accelerating production increase. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, significantly faster than the original plan. Saudi Arabia's official price premium strategies for August are differentiated, suggesting its intention to maintain regional supply balance through structural pricing [3]. - On the demand side, there are signs of marginal repair. The recovery of fuel supply at the UK's Lindsey refinery and India's plan to expand refinery capacity have improved short - term refinery demand, but the significant reduction in Brent crude oil speculative net long positions reflects doubts about the continuous upward space of oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 4, 2025, SC futures price decreased by 0.55%, WTI decreased by 1.01%, and Brent decreased by 0.49%. Among spot prices, Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri increased, while others had different degrees of decline. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI changed, and the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread decreased by 12.36%. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 4, 2025, FU futures price decreased by 0.70%, LU decreased by 0.06%, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.75%. Among spot prices, some increased and some decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 1.86%, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.99%. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 3.91% [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and some members' over - production has caused disputes. Saudi Aramco's move to sell power plant assets may indicate financial pressure [3][8]. - **Demand**: The UK's Lindsey refinery resumed fuel supply, and India plans to expand refinery capacity. Dubai Airlines resumed flights to Tehran, slightly alleviating geopolitical premiums [4][10]. - **Inventory**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt decreased by 10,000 tons, while the medium - sulfur crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab light crude oil for different regions in August. The net long positions of gasoline speculators increased, while those of Brent crude oil decreased [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which help to comprehensively understand the supply and demand situation of the oil market [13][15][17].

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 星期一 （1）基本面 价格：7 月 4 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.59%，报 7340/吨，基差 290（+22 元/吨）； 成本：7 月 4 日布油主力合约收盘 67.0 桶（-0.5 桶），WTI 原油主力合 约收盘 68.8 桶（-0.3 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5880 元/吨（+20 元/ 吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 19.4 万吨（-0.6 万吨），环比去库 3.0%，江 苏港口库存 9.9 万吨（+1.4 万吨），环比累库 16.2%，苯乙烯整体偏累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量 保持 36.7 万吨（+0 万吨），工厂产能利用率 80.0%（-0.1%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.9（-3.84%）， ABS 产能利用率 65.0%（-1.0%），PS 产能利用率 52.4%（-5.0%），开工率整体 回落。 （2）观点 纯苯：当前纯苯市场呈现供需双增态势。供应端，石油苯开工率略有波动，而 加氢苯开工率则持续攀升至历史高位，主要 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core drivers include the domestic smelting increment on the supply side offsetting overseas mine - end disturbances, the continuous fermentation of off - season pressure and high - price suppression effects on the demand side, and the poor macro - sentiment due to the US non - farm payroll data exceeding expectations and suppressing interest - rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 4, the SHFE main contract price dropped 0.81% to 80,030 yuan/ton, and the LME three - month copper price fell to 9,951.5 dollars/ton. The discount of flat - water copper remained at 80 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper narrowed to - 5 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis fell to 87.61 dollars/ton. The LME open interest slightly shrank to 282,135 lots, and the domestic SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons within the week [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply Side**: In June, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China dropped to 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively, limiting short - term overseas mine - end increments. China's electrolytic copper production in the first half of the year increased 11.4% year - on - year [2] - **Demand Side**: The off - season effect deepened. In the first week of July, the operating rate of refined copper rods turned negative year - on - year, the operating rate of cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, and the household appliance production plan decreased 2.6% year - on - year. Only the power sector's demand was relatively stable, but it could not offset the overall weak consumption [2] - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons within the week, the COMEX inventory increased 3.7% to 220,954 short tons, and the domestic SHFE inventory continuously increased to 95,275 tons, but the total inventory was still at a year - on - year low [2] - **Market Summary**: The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On July 4, the SMM 1 copper price was 80,580 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day. The SHFE price was 80,030 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the LME price was 9,852 dollars/ton, down 1.00%. The discount of wet - process copper narrowed, and the LME (0 - 3) basis increased 8.83% [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons, the SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 220,954 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 5, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in June decreased. EroCopper's Tucuma copper project in Brazil achieved commercial production, but analysts were skeptical about its annual production target [6] - On July 4, due to the off - season and high copper prices, the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased. Except for the power sector, other industries' demand was generally suppressed by high copper prices [6][7] - On July 3, the second rotary anode furnace of the fire - smelting system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous metal recycled copper resource recycling base project produced the first furnace of anode copper, marking the full completion of the project [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][9][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although there are some marginal improvement signals in the fundamentals, the high inventory and weak actual procurement limit the upward space of prices, while the cost and expected improvement support the downside [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 63,280 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day; the basis rose from - 1,880 yuan/ton to - 880 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 17.4% to 348,000 lots, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply side: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% month - on - month to 61.8%, and there is still medium - term supply pressure; the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, not significantly disturbing the cost [3]. - Demand side: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose steadily. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.15% month - on - month to 30,705 yuan/ton, and ternary materials also rose slightly. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in June reached 52.7%. The cell prices remained stable, and downstream manufacturers' acceptance of high - priced lithium salts was limited, with procurement mainly for rigid restocking [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased to 138,347 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although the contradiction is weakened under the double increase of supply and demand, the inventory suppression still exists. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the steady growth of new energy vehicle sales in June supports the demand expectation. However, although there is partial production reduction on the supply side, the release of new production capacity and high inventory pressure limit the price rebound space [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.25% to 63,280 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 53.19% to - 880 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,288 lots; the trading volume decreased by 17.4% to 347,729 lots; the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32% to 62,400 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [6]. - Compared with June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.59% to 61.8%; the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 138,347 tons. The prices of various types of cells remained unchanged [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,240 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 186 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton. Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and the inventory pressure remains [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on July 3, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.071 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.429 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 1.259 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% and a month - on - month increase of 3%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 50.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.465 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment - holding of Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium Boron Mine Project", which is beneficial for expanding the company's salt lake lithium extraction capacity [9][10]. - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to upgrade and transform its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest 120.7 million yuan to build a 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and transformation time of about 6 months [10]. - On June 24, the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project estimated a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan, with an annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax as a by - product [10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, cathode precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [11][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current market shows characteristics of "strong expectation, weak reality". The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is gradually emerging, but the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. The trend of price increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side. The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day, with a narrow - fluctuating price center; the basis weakened slightly to - 1,880 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 334,000 lots, a five - day high, but the trading volume shrank by 22.11% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: On the supply side, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants remained at a high level of 62.8%, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. On the demand side, there was a divergence in the power sector. The price of lithium iron phosphate materials rose by 0.36% to 30,660 yuan/ton, and the 5 - series ternary materials rose slightly by 0.04% due to cost support. However, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and battery cells remained flat, and there was a risk of further decline in the power market demand in July. The overseas demand for energy storage provided support, but the consumer electronics market was in the traditional off - season, and the wet recycling market had light trading. The overall demand improvement was weak. The social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.44% to 136,800 tons, and the oversupply pattern in the industrial chain remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Summary**: The recent market shows "strong expectation, weak reality" characteristics. The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is emerging. However, the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. Attention should be paid to the change in the spot replenishment rhythm and the implementation of salt plant maintenance. If the inventory accumulation slope slows down, there may be a basis repair opportunity, but a trend - like increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 3, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day; the basis was - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract increased by 2.61% to 334,057 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 22.11% to 420,967 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,200 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials rose by 0.04%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 0.36%. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 62.8%, and the inventory increased by 1.44% to 136,837 tons. The prices of various types of battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,054 yuan/ton, up 416 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot price showed signs of stopping falling and rebounding slightly, but the supply was still strong, and the inventory pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From June 1 - 22, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 691,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 54.5%. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 666,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.8% [7]. - **Industry News**: - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to comprehensively upgrade the annual 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest about 120.7 million yuan to build an annual 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and maintenance and technical transformation time of about 6 months [8][9]. - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, aiming to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually and recover boron elements, with a by - product of 17,000 tons of borax [9]. - On June 19, Yahua Group announced the establishment of Yahua Lithium Industry Group to integrate lithium - related resources, improve resource synergy efficiency, and focus on the development of the lithium industry [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides data charts on the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [10][14][16][18][19][23][24]. 3.5 Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side. Although the spot price has rebounded slightly, the oversupply and inventory accumulation are the main pressures. The demand has some signs of recovery, but the overall strength is insufficient to support a significant increase. The weakening basis may show the reaction of the futures market to the expected improvement. The increase in open interest but the decrease in trading volume may indicate market divergence [31][32].

截至2025年7月1日，原油市场呈现多空交织态势。SC原油主力合约收报 499.4元/桶，较前日小幅上涨0.54%，盘中呈现探底回升走势。WTI与Brent 油价维持横向整理格局，分别持平于64.97和66.63美元/桶。值得注意的是 SC原油价差明显走强，SC-Brent价差环比扩大15%至3.1美元/桶，SC近远月 价差单日飙升30.7%至16.6元/桶，显示近端合约流动性溢价提升。 供需双向拉扯延续 油价维持弱势整理 一、日度市场总结 供应端呈现明显分化格局。OPEC+主要产油国持续释放增产动能，沙特6月 原油出口环比激增45万桶/日创一年新高至633万桶/日，哈萨克斯坦6月产 量环比增长7.5%至188万桶/日创历史纪录，俄罗斯7月黑海石油产品出口计 划环比增长22.3%至103.5万吨。但墨西哥产量下滑至1970年代末水平（目 前约160万桶/日，较峰值减少逾40%）引发美国炼油厂夏季供应担忧，该结 构性缺口推动美国得州原油产量回升至577万桶/日支撑区域平衡。 需求端季节性矛盾显现。北美夏季出行旺季推动炼厂开工率维持高位，EIA 周度数据显示美国商业原油库存加速去化1.5%，但山东独立炼厂6月30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PX cost support is weak, and attention should be paid to the possible increase in supply pressure due to high processing fees of PTA [1]. - The PTA downstream polyester operating rate is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. However, the marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. - The cost decline and high short - fiber inventory will continue the weak pattern of the industrial chain, while the low inventory of filament may provide phased support. The risk of weakening demand in the traditional textile off - season needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On June 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,796.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 222.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on June 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.07 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 620.33 million meters [2]. - PX: The cost side is affected by the narrow - range oscillation trend of international crude oil prices, and the support it can provide is relatively limited. The expected commissioning of new devices in Asia may bring supply pressure, and the limited repair space of downstream PTA processing fees may suppress the raw material procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the PX price will maintain an oscillatory pattern [2]. - PTA: The downstream polyester operating rate of PTA is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. The strengthening of the basis reflects the tightness of spot goods. The marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. Polyester - On June 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,542.0 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,730.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 188.0 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the PX futures price oscillated downward from 7,076 yuan/ton on June 20 to 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, and the PTA futures main contract also fell from 4,978 yuan/ton to 4,798 yuan/ton during the same period, and the raw material side declined under pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the MA15 trading volume of Light Textile City decreased continuously from 644.4 million meters on June 20 to 609.4 million meters on June 27 and then rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than the level at the beginning of the month, reflecting the lack of sustainability of terminal demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of polyester filament FDY/POY/DTY were 18.9/17.2/25.3 days respectively, all lower than the five - year average values of 22.19/20.40/28.42 days, while the inventory of polyester short - fiber was 7.77 days, significantly higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days, indicating that the filament maintained a de - stocking trend, but the short - fiber had significant inventory accumulation pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.65% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 295,108 lots, up 29.61%; the main contract position was 115,158 lots, up 3.16% [4]. - PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 866.67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 850 US dollars/ton, up 0.95% [4]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,798 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.42% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 1,088,784 lots, up 36.27%; the main contract position was 1,085,040 lots, down 0.81% [4]. - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 653 US dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,542 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.25% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 132,190 lots, up 0.05%; the main contract position was 102,404 lots, down 12.71% [4]. - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,730 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [4]. - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY had different changes [4]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, PTA, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY also had different changes [5]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on June 30 was 663 million meters, down 16.29% from June 27; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129 million meters [5]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY had different changes [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On June 30, Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the conflict, and a Ukrainian F - 16 fighter jet crashed [6]. - On June 30, the US consumer spending in May unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%, inflation rose moderately, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, reaching a new high since February 2025; the monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 0.2%, and the market expected it to remain flat at 0.1%, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates three times in 2025 [6]. - On June 30, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expected two interest - rate cuts starting from September, and the impact of tariffs might lead to a suspension of interest - rate cuts [6]. - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 2720.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - On June 27, some Fed officials made statements about interest - rate cuts [6]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and filament production and sales situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][15][16][20][23][24][25][26][27] 3.5 Appendix - The analysis of the future price trends of PX and PTA shows that PX may maintain or rise if the upstream crude oil is stable or rising, and PTA may also have an upward trend due to large basis and increasing demand. However, the possible fluctuations in crude oil prices and the decline in polyester operating rate are risk factors [35][36]

织造需求偏弱打击市场信心，乙二醇无新进利好支撑 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇主力期货价格三日累计下跌0.46%至4294元/吨，华东现货价格同步 下跌0.23%至4330元/吨。基差由26元/吨扩大至46元/吨，表明现货相对期 货表现强势。跨期价差呈现分化，近月1-5价差贴水扩大至-21元/吨，反映 市场对中期供需格局的谨慎预期。 成本端油制工艺延续深度亏损，石脑油制、乙烯制、甲醇制利润分别 为-102.5美元/吨、-982.18元/吨和-1543.37元/吨，煤制工艺也维持-292 元/吨亏损，各工艺成本倒挂未见改善。 产业链数据显示生产端维持低弹性，乙二醇总体开工率持平62.97%，煤制 与油制开工分别稳定在58.59%和65.91%。 需求端聚酯工厂负荷持续保持89.42%高位，江浙织机负荷稳定于63.43%， 但终端订单未见显著增量。 港口库存出现结构性分化，华东主港总库下降3.1万吨至50.57万吨，但张 家港单周累库1.9万吨，叠加到港量增至12.84万吨（环比+14.64%），显性 库存压力出现区域性反弹，预计去库节奏将趋缓。 当前乙二醇价格呈现弱成本定价特征，产业链 ...

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