Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of lithium carbonate is significantly suppressed, and the subsequent basis repair needs to be monitored for new warrant registrations. The main contradiction of oversupply still restricts the absolute price performance of lithium carbonate futures [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - On March 24, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and rebounded. The main contract LC2505 closed at 73,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable [1] - In the week of March 21, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 17,946 tons, a 2.47% decrease from the previous week. As of the week of March 14, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 126,399 tons, a 2.24% increase. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 13.54 GWh, a 3.28% increase [1] - From March 1 - 16, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market increased by 41% year - on - year and 63% month - on - month. The wholesale of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers increased by 43% year - on - year and 64% month - on - month [1] 2. Lithium Carbonate Price Monitoring - **Futures Data**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate rose from 73,720 yuan/ton on March 24 to 73,800 yuan/ton on March 25, an increase of 0.11%. The basis decreased from 980 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton. The main monthly spread (05 - 07) increased from - 240 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton. The cancellation monthly spread (07 - 08) increased from - 1400 yuan/ton to - 1300 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 4.10%, and the trading volume increased by 9.31%. The number of lithium carbonate futures warrants decreased by 1.66% [3] - **Market Price Data**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.13% from March 24 to March 25. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power ternary materials increased by 0.04%, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged [5] - **Weekly Data**: From March 14 to March 21, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased by 3.05%. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.47%. The output of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 3.28%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2.24%. The price of some battery cells changed slightly [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On March 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 74,100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 1 - 16, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 427,000 vehicles, a 41% year - on - year increase and a 63% month - on - month increase. The wholesale was 422,000 vehicles, a 43% year - on - year increase and a 64% month - on - month increase [7] - **Industry News**: Multiple events occurred, including a company obtaining a mining license, a company terminating a lithium mine development project, new lithium ore discoveries in China, mine expansions, government support for new energy vehicles, and a company's acquisition of a lithium project stake [8][9][10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium carbonate futures, prices of various lithium - related products, production, inventory, and battery cell prices, which visually display the trends and relationships of relevant data [11][20][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, oil prices have stabilized and rebounded due to new sanctions on Iran by the US, OPEC's compensatory production cut plan, and escalating geopolitical tensions. However, in the medium to long term, market sentiment remains weak due to expectations of OPEC's production increase and economic slowdown caused by global trade wars [5]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market maintains a resilient pattern, but its upside potential is restricted. The low - sulfur fuel oil has not shown significant pressure, and the narrowing momentum of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur price spread has weakened [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Crude Oil - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 21 decreased by 4.599 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 1.074 million barrels. On March 25, the SC main contract in the domestic market closed up 0.94% at 538.3 yuan/barrel, and closed at 538.6 yuan/barrel in the night session. In the international market, WTI closed up 0.09 dollars/barrel at 69.20 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 0.14 dollars/barrel at 72.51 dollars/barrel [3]. - The US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, lower than the expected 51.8, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Black Sea Cease - fire Agreement" was reached in the talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, but the sanctions on Russian energy exports remain unchanged. Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and the Middle East situation remains tense. On the supply side, Chevron reduced its tanker fleet in Venezuela, and the shipment of heavy crude oil in Venezuelan ports slowed down. On the demand side, China's crude oil processing volume from January to February increased by 2.1% year - on - year, but refining profits are weak. The API data shows that both crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased, supporting the upward trend of oil prices [4]. Fuel Oil - On March 25, FU was reported at 3194 yuan/ton, LU at 3680 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 228.7 cents/gallon. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is resilient, but its upside is restricted. The low - sulfur fuel oil has not shown significant pressure, and the narrowing momentum of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur price spread has weakened [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC increased by 0.73% to 538.3 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.06% to 69.2 dollars/barrel, and Brent increased by 0.11% to 72.5 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices increased, with Brent increasing by 1.01% to 74.67 dollars/barrel. - Price spreads: The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI all increased, and the SC continuous - to - continuous 3 spread increased by 175.44% [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU increased by 0.57% to 3194 yuan/ton, LU increased by 1.29% to 3680 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.14% to 228.7 cents/gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the high - sulfur 180 in East China increased by 1.42% to 5375 yuan/ton. - Price spreads: The China high - sulfur to low - sulfur price spread increased by 6.35% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Inner - market Prices - On March 25, the SC main contract closed up 0.94% at 538.3 yuan/barrel, and closed at 538.6 yuan/barrel in the night session. The domestic Shengli crude oil spot price was 69.49 dollars/barrel, up 0.84% [10]. Outer - market Prices - On March 25, WTI closed up 0.09 dollars/barrel at 69.20 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 0.14 dollars/barrel at 72.51 dollars/barrel. The Brent crude oil spot price increased by 1.01% to 74.67 dollars/barrel, and the Dubai and Oman crude oil spot prices increased by 0.26% to 73.63 dollars/barrel [11]. Macroeconomics - The US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Black Sea Cease - fire Agreement" was reached, but the sanctions on Russian energy exports remain unchanged. Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and the Middle East situation remains tense [12]. Supply - OPEC+ requires seven member countries to further cut production. Kazakhstan's oil production in March reached a record high, exceeding the quota by 26.7%. OPEC+ may increase production in May and force some members to cut production to compensate for over - production. Chevron reduced its tanker fleet in Venezuela, and the shipment of heavy crude oil slowed down. Iraq plans to increase oil production capacity to over 6 million barrels per day by 2029. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 to 486 [13][14][15]. Demand - China's crude oil processing volume from January to February increased by 2.1% year - on - year, mainly due to the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical refinery and the increase in refined oil demand during the Spring Festival, but refining profits are weak [16]. Inventory - The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased by 4.599 million barrels for the week ending March 21, and the refined oil inventory also decreased, supporting the upward trend of oil prices [17]. Market Information - The US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 92.9, lower than the previous value of 100.1. The number of new home sales in the US in February was 676,000. The US March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was - 4. The oil loading volume at Russian western ports in April increased by 5% compared to March. A Fed official said the current policy is still restrictive. The Yemeni Houthi rebels are in conflict with the US aircraft carrier [18]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and fuel oil prices and spreads, to visually present the market trends of the oil and fuel oil industries [19][22][24][50]

能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 3 月 26 日 星期三 进口到港量恢复抵消国内部分供应缩量，关注乙二醇去库幅度 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日，乙二醇华东现货价格 4510 元/吨，较前一日上涨 5 元/ 吨。主力合约收盘 4474 元/吨，较前一交易上涨 0.04%。基差为 16 元/吨。 成本端，油价企稳反弹，WTI原油主力收69.20元/桶，布油收 72.51美元/桶。供给端，内蒙古一套30万吨装置上周末跳停，预 计本周末重启。新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预 计7月份重启。沙特一套55万吨装置近期重启，此前于2月份停车 检修。沙特一套70万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计 检修两个月左右。上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化 原计划3月底重启，现推迟至年底，内蒙兖矿40万吨计划3月下旬 停车1个月，陕西榆林化学有两条线计划4月份检修。乐天美国70 万吨产能计划4月份检修，马来西亚石 ...

能源化工 聚酯日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 3 月 25 日 星期二 PX、PTA 受成本端油价带动反弹，关注需求改善幅度 一、日度市场总结 1. PX & PTA 昨日，PX主力合约PX2505收6898元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.55%， 基差为-149 元/吨。PTA 主力合约 PTA2505 收 4884 元/吨，较前一交易日 上涨 0.12%,基差为-14 元/吨。 成本端，上周 OECD 原油库存-117.5 万桶/日，原油保持去库趋势，。 WTI 原油主力收 68.29 元/桶，布油收 71.67 美元/桶。供应端，PX：扬子 石化 4 月份有重整检修，PX 有降负预期，天津石化计划 4-6 月份检修， 海南炼化计划 4-5 月检修，中海油惠州 150 万吨计划 3 月底检修 50 天左 右。浙石化 250 万吨计划 3 月下检修 35-45 天左右，九江石化计划 3 月 中-5 月停车检修。日本出光 21 万吨上周重启，另一条 20 万吨计划近日 重启。PX 国内装置开工率为 85.7%，亚洲开工率为 77.4%。PTA：海伦石 化 120 万吨预计 3 月 5 日起检修两周，仪征 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to rebound, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom [1] - The short - term oil price in the cost side continues to fluctuate. The main port inventory is slightly decreasing, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The downstream polyester operating load is slowly increasing, but the terminal textile order volume is insufficient, and the polyester finished product inventory pressure is relatively large. Attention should be paid to the improvement of port inventory and downstream demand [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price**: The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,505 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 4,472 yuan/ton, up 1.73% from the previous trading day, and the basis was - 42 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: The oil price stabilized and rebounded. WTI crude oil main contract closed at $68.29 per barrel, and Brent oil closed at $71.67 per barrel. The short - term oil price continued to oscillate [3][4] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic and foreign ethylene glycol production devices had maintenance or restart plans. As of March 20, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.7% (down 0.13% from the previous period). From March 24 to March 30, the planned arrival volume at the main port was about 196,000 tons [3] - **Demand**: The polyester load was around 91.5%. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 9.53 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 8.1593 million meters [3] - **Inventory**: On March 21, the inventory at the East China main port was 643,300 tons. According to the CCF statistics, the inventory at the East China main port on March 24 was about 767,000 tons, down 43,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory of domestic MEG plants was 51,790 tons, down 11.7% [3][4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 1.73% to 4,472 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 39.10% to 243,373 lots, while the open interest decreased by 4.97% to 358,335 lots. The spot price in the East China market increased by 1.81% to 4,505 yuan/ton [6] - **Basis and Spread**: The MEG basis decreased by 223.53% to - 42 yuan/ton, the MEG 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28.99% to 98 yuan/ton, the MEG 5 - 9 spread increased by 17.44% to - 71 yuan/ton, and the MEG 9 - 1 spread increased by 48.08% to - 27 yuan/ton [6] - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based production increased by 5.39% to - 138.47 dollars/ton, while the profits of ethylene - based, methanol - based, and coal - based production remained unchanged [6] - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol increased by 6.16%, the polyester factory load increased by 2.25%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load increased by 9.68%. The operating rates of coal - based, oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production remained unchanged [6] - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 7.75% to 682,300 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 1.50% to 335,100 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 1.35% to 131,100 tons [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: Trump announced that a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada would take effect on Tuesday, and reciprocal tariffs on countries imposing tariffs on US products would take effect on April 2. He also planned to raise the tariff on all Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. Trump and Putin's call led to a 30 - day cease - fire on energy facilities in Ukraine, but achieving a full cease - fire was still a long - way off [7] - **Domestic and Foreign Markets**: In the morning, the external market of MEG oscillated and rebounded, with the offer for March shipments at 526 - 527 dollars/ton. The internal market fluctuated within a narrow range, with the current spot basis at a premium of 33 - 42 yuan/ton over the 05 contract [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price, profit, operating rate, import arrival volume, port inventory, etc. of ethylene glycol over a long - term time series [10][11][13]

3 月 24 日，碳酸锂期货震荡反弹，主力合约 LC2505 收 73720 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘上涨 0.66%。碳酸锂现货报 价大幅松动，电池级碳酸锂现货成交均价较前一交易日下跌 200 元/吨。 新能源锂电 通惠期货•研发产品系列 碳酸锂日报 2025 年 03 月 25 日 星期二 碳酸锂短期超卖兑现修复需求，主线矛盾仍是供给过剩 一、 日度市场总结 有色网数据显示，3 月 21 日当周碳酸锂的周度产量为 17946 吨，环比前一周减少 2.47%，周度产量环比下滑，但 仍处于历史绝对高位；截至 3 月 14 日当周碳酸锂周度库存 为 126399 吨，环比增加 2.24%，同时磷酸铁锂电池周产量为 13.54GWh，环比增加 3.28%。 据乘联会数据，3 月 1-16 日，新能源车市场零售同比增 长 41%，环比增长 63%。全国乘用车厂商新能源批发同比去 年同期增长 43%，环比增长 64%。 上周碳酸锂周度产量数据环比略有减少，数据跌破 1.8 万吨，同时终端产量环比持续增加；但是仓单的持续流出无 形中增加了现货市场的客供压力，周度库存数据持续增加。 期货方面，昨日碳酸锂期货 LC2505 ...

通惠期货•研发产品系列 能源化工 3 月 24 日，FU 报收 3176 元/吨，LU 报收 3633 元/吨，NYMEX 燃油报收 226.1 美分/ 加仑。 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 美国总统特朗普周一发布行政命令，宣布任何从委内瑞拉购买石油或天然气的国 家都将在与美国的贸易中支付 25%的关税，同时他的政府延长了美国生产商雪佛龙的最 后期限。内盘，3 月 24 日 SC 主力合约收涨 0.58%，报 534.4 元/桶；夜盘 SC 收涨于 538.8 元/桶。外盘，3 月 24 日 WTI 收涨 0.88 美元/桶，报 69.16 美元/桶；Brent 收涨 0.82 美元/桶，报 72.43 美元/桶。 宏观面，美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 录得 49.8，不及预期的 51.8，跌至荣枯分 界线之下，重新陷入萎缩区间。2 月前值为 52.7，当时录得 2022 年中期以来的最高水 平，部分工厂为了抢在关税生效前提升产量，从而带动了短期增长，3 月的最新 ...

宏观有色 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn 通惠期货•研发产品系列 热点聚焦 2025 年 3 月 13 日 星期四 CPI 顺利回落的背后，是通胀抬头与经济放缓的角力 通惠期货研发部 图 1：美国 CPI 增速（%） 图 2：美国细分项 CPI 增速（%） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 18-01 19-04 20-07 21-10 23-01 24-04 CPI 核心CPI www.thqh.com.cn 3 月 12 日晚美国 CPI 数据超预期回落，虽然住房、能源等细分项增 速有所放缓，但是服装等核心商品以及食品 CPI 增速高企，且关税与其 下，商品类 CPI 仍有抬头预期。在同时面对关税政策推升通胀与美国经 济增速放缓这一两难局面时，美联储在决议降息时或更加谨慎，市场降 息预期或表现的艰难反复。 2025 年 3 月 12 日晚间，美国 2 月未季调 CPI 年率报 2.80% ...