商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 生长条件有利，棉价短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-15 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weakening Trend [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the total social financing increased year - on - year, but the structure was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, while the financing demand of the real economy declined. The external uncertainty caused by the US tariff increase in April might have reduced the risk appetite of enterprises. However, the government's leverage increase continued, and subsequent fiscal policies might bring surprises [4]. - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved substantial progress and the tariffs were cancelled, the black sector and the stock market fluctuated widely and then rose steadily during the daytime on the 12th, but fell back at night. The market sentiment was extremely pessimistic, and most funds were shorting on rallies. Without greater positive impacts, the market sentiment was difficult to reverse in the short term [4]. - For coking coal, the spot auction turnover rate continued to decline, the price difference between domestic and foreign ports widened, and the impact of low - priced overseas coal continued. Mines increased production, while coke enterprises reduced production, leading to weaker demand. For coke, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, but it was not implemented yet. The supply - demand gap widened, but the demand was a strong reality with weak expectations [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal was 1015 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract was 894.5 yuan/ton (+24), the basis was 140.5 yuan/ton (-24), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 16.5 yuan/ton (-5.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines was 89.92% (+0.18), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.42% (-0.55), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was 75.05% (-0.38) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The refined coal inventory of 523 mines was 390.43 million tons (+31.39), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants was 197.28 million tons (+3.39), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.21 million tons (+2.42), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 775.17 million tons (-35.11), and the port inventory was 397.81 million tons (-13.97) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1440 yuan/ton (unchanged), steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, but it was not implemented yet. The active contract was 1482 yuan/ton (+35), the basis was 68.22 yuan/ton (-35), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 26 yuan/ton (+2) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was 75.05% (-0.38). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.6% (+1.45), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons (+0.22) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 65.09 million tons (-1.97), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and the port inventory was 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract, closely monitor the rebound strength, and add positions after confirming the bottom. The market is waiting for supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. Without substantial positive news, the market expectation is difficult to reverse [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a downward bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector's weak performance shows extreme market pessimism. Without significant supply - side or fiscal policy support, the market will likely remain in a sideways - with - downward - bias pattern [4] - For coking coal, the impact of low - price overseas coal continues, mines are increasing production and accumulating inventory, while demand from coke enterprises is weakening. For coke, steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts, with supply decreasing and demand increasing, but the demand outlook is weak [5] - After the sharp decline, coal and coke followed the rebound in the night session on the 13th. In the short term, they are still in a downward trend, with coking coal possibly having a 15% downside in extreme cases. However, the resistance to further decline in the 09 contract is increasing [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Supply and Demand - Mine production is increasing, with the operating rate of 523 mines at 89.92% (+0.18), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants at 62.42% (-0.55). Coke enterprise production is decreasing, with the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises at 75.05% (-0.38) [2] - The demand for coking coal from coke enterprises is weakening as their coking coal inventory is decreasing [5] 3.1.2 Inventory - Upstream mines and coal washing plants are accumulating inventory, with 523 mines having 390.43 million tons of clean coal inventory (+31.39) and coal washing plants having 197.28 million tons (+3.39). Downstream, steel mills' inventory is increasing (787.21 million tons, +2.42), while coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing (775.17 million tons, - 35.11), and port inventory is decreasing (397.81 million tons, -13.97) [2] 3.1.3 Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1015 yuan/ton (-5), the active contract is 870.5 yuan/ton (-19), the basis is 164.5 yuan/ton (+19), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -11 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply is decreasing, with the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises at 75.05% (-0.38). Demand is increasing, with the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills at 91.6% (+1.45) and the daily average pig iron output at 245.64 million tons (+0.22) [3] 3.2.2 Inventory - The entire industrial chain is reducing inventory. 230 coke enterprises have 65.09 million tons of inventory (-1.97), 247 steel mills have 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and port inventory is 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3] 3.2.3 Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1447 yuan/ton (-24.5), the basis is 103.22 yuan/ton (-+24.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -28 yuan/ton (-0). Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts, which have not yet been implemented [3]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【安泰科：2025 年 4 月中国镍产品产量通报】据统计，2025 年 4 月中国镍板产量 33120 吨，环比下降 2.1%，同比增加 6.9%。1-4 月中 国镍板产量 13 万吨，同比增加 13.02%。本月华中某镍企产量因原料供应 迟滞产量小幅下降，西北大型镍企产量环比提升。随着印尼某 MHP 项目复 产，原料供应有望逐渐增加，预计 5 月中国产量同环比增长。2025 年 4 月 中国硫酸镍产量 2.96 万吨（不含硫酸镍生产镍板用量约 1.2 万吨），环比 下降 12.9%，同比下降 17.8%。其中原生物料产量约 2.8 万吨，环比下降 11.4%，同比下降 13.2%。1-4 月中国硫酸镍产量 12.7 万吨，同比下降 1.63%。 （安泰科） 供应：从盘面表现来看，基本已经可以认为菲律宾禁矿传言被证伪，盘面 快速回吐全部涨幅，收盘价基本与前一日起涨点持平。回到基本面，菲律 宾走出雨季，发运量上升季的节性因素不易发生变化，矿端 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球糖供应预期增加，糖价短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-14 免责声明 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish outlook [3] Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The market quickly reversed all the gains, and the closing price was basically the same as the starting point of the previous day. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen, and there is no sign of production cuts in nickel iron. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly. The demand for nickel is under pressure, and the profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly. The report suggests rolling short nickel in the range of 120,000 - 127,000 [1][2]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and the demand for zinc is expected to weaken. The report suggests waiting for opportunities to short zinc [3][4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may lead to a shortage of global nickel ore supply and price increases. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, mainly supplying smelters in industrial parks such as Morowali and Weda Bay. The ban may cause supply chain disruptions for these smelters [1]. Zinc - In April 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The Philippines is out of the rainy season, and the shipping volume is expected to increase. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen. The profit of nickel iron produced from medium-grade nickel ore is close to the break-even point, but the profit of nickel iron produced from low-grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly [1]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, but it is still not low. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive after considering by-product income. The possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the overall supply is expected to loosen [3]. Demand Nickel and Stainless Steel - The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both of which have decreased compared with the previous period. The profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly, but the production volume has remained high. The possibility of production cuts in stainless steel is small [2]. Zinc - The demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for production is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while the social inventory has started to accumulate, indicating that the terminal demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. The demand for die-casting alloys has not improved significantly, and manufacturers are producing on demand. The supply of zinc oxide is relatively sufficient, and there is no sign of an increase in the operating rate. The overall demand for zinc is expected to weaken [4].

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 关税利好下，煤焦冲高回落，短期仍偏弱 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 13 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 中美经贸高层会谈联合声明发布，双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，双方取消 4 月 7 号之后加征的关税，同时暂停实施 24%的对等关税。双方建立机制，继续就经贸 关系进行协商。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货偏弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1015 元/吨(-5)。活跃合约报 889.5 元/吨(+12)。 基差 145.5 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as high-level consolidation in the short term and bearish in the medium term [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, minor positive factors support the high-level consolidation of copper prices; in the medium term, the weakening fundamentals combined with a generally pessimistic macro - environment will cause the center of gravity of Shanghai copper to decline [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In April, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market reached 905,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 33.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.7%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 3.324 million units, a growth of 35.7%. In April, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicles was 51.5%, 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - As of the close on May 9th, the weekly changes were as follows: Shanghai copper closed at 77,450 yuan/ton (+0.30%), London copper closed at $9,445.5/ton (+0.15%), New York copper closed at $4.6045/pound (-1.05%), the premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 80 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) reached $49.19/ton. The social inventory was 120,100 tons, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 19,200 tons, with continuous inventory reduction [1] 3.3 News - The Sino - US talks have ended and reached important consensus, which may bring short - term positive sentiment to the market [2] 3.4 Trading Logic - **Macro - aspect**: In the short term, there are positive factors. The market expects the tariff issue to be alleviated, and domestic policies strongly support consumption, boosting market confidence. In the medium and long term, the global economic situation is not optimistic, and the US debt problem remains a challenge [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is currently loose, with the cumulative output of smelters from January to April increasing by 10.63% year - on - year and stable copper ore imports. However, the output in April was basically the same as that in March, and there will be concentrated maintenance later, so the supply increase is expected to decline. The processing fee for imported copper ore by smelters has continuously dropped to -$43.11/ton dry. If it touches the pressure line of smelters, it may trigger passive production cuts. The demand for copper rods, copper tubes, etc. is currently supported, but the operating rate has shown a downward trend, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the premium of Shanghai copper has gradually narrowed [3] - **Comex - lme Spread**: It has shrunk to $705.5/ton and may drive the single - side copper price to decline [3] 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options in the future [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Hold [1] - Stainless Steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish Outlook [3][4] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel ore exports, if true, could turn China's nickel element supply from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear, but the possibility of loosening at the ore end remains high. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China is still at a high level, and the production cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline. The short - term rise in nickel prices is affected by the rumor, but the reliability of the news is questionable, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Zinc - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so the overall outlook is bearish [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Macro & Industry News - The Philippines government plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may hit Indonesia's nickel smelting industry. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The ban may cause a global supply crunch and price increase of nickel ore, but the reliability of this news is in doubt [1]. Supply - If the Philippines bans nickel ore exports, China's nickel element supply may shift from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear. The profit of producing nickel iron from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while that from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [2]. Zinc Macro & Industry News - In April 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 6.872 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the ore end, and imports at the ore end have significantly recovered. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but is still not low, and the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts at the supply end is very small, and the overall supply is loosening [3]. Demand - The peak demand season is approaching the end. In the galvanizing industry, the capacity utilization rate and production are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low due to pessimism about future demand. The terminal demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline. In the die - casting alloy market, manufacturers produce on demand, and the market is expected to maintain rigid - demand transactions. In the zinc oxide market, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the possibility of manufacturers increasing the operating rate is low [4].

商品研究 期货研究报告 市场静待 USDA 报告，棉花保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-12 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 万吨。近期，新疆大部分地区气温偏高，这对棉花的播种总体上是 有利的。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | - ...