s 加安期货 -300 -300 2019 2022 2024 2020 2021 2023 2025 2019 2024 2021 2022 2023 2025 2020 BU02-03 BU03-06 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 7/1 8/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 3/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 4/1 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 r -100 -100 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2025 2019 ·2020 -2021 2022 - 2024 2025 2023 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 5000 3150 4500 3100 3050 4000 3000 3500 2950 2900 3000 MAR MA 2850 S 2500 2800 3/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 BU05 BU06 BU01 BU02 BU03 BU04 2022 -2019 -2020 -2021 -2023 ·2024 - 2025 ...

F 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/5 2025/12/11 2025/12/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/5 2025/12/11 2025/12/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | 984.0 | -60.0 | -18.0 | FG05合约 | 1115.0 | 1053.0 | 1016.0 | -99.0 | -37.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1019.0 | 984.0 | 976.0 | -43.0 | -8.0 | FG01合约 | 994.0 | 956.0 | 935.0 | -59.0 | -21.0 | | 5mm大板 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and spot - futures arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 16, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 92,270 (domestic) and 11,680 (LME) with a ratio of 8.05; March price is 92,490 (domestic) and 11,685 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.01 with a profit of - 1,177.97, and spot export profit is 635.68 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23,460 (domestic) and 3,122 (LME) with a ratio of 7.51; March price is 23,470 (domestic) and 3,154 (LME) with a ratio of 5.40. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.43 with a profit of - 2,851.84 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 21,710 (domestic) and 2,838 (LME) with a ratio of 7.65; March price is 21,920 (domestic) and 2,883 (LME) with a ratio of 7.58. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.32 with a profit of - 1,913.48 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 117,850 (domestic) and 14,395 (LME) with a ratio of 8.19. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10 with a profit of - 1,653.85 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,975 (domestic) and 1,919 (LME) with a ratio of 8.84; March price is 17,030 (domestic) and 1,971 (LME) with a ratio of 11.87. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of 349.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 1,620, - 1,530, - 1,470, - 1,510, while the theoretical spreads are 572, 1,042, 1,521, 2,000 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 155, - 115, - 120, - 95, while the theoretical spreads are 221, 348, 475, 602 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 200, - 155, - 115, - 80, while the theoretical spreads are 221, 344, 466, 589 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 40, - 20, - 15, 25, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 860, - 650, - 400, - 160 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1,170 with a theoretical spread of 6,738 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are 1,775 and 155, while the theoretical spreads are 834 and 1,108 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are 125 and - 30, while the theoretical spreads are 198 and 334 respectively [4] Cross - Market Ratio Comparison - The cross - market ratios of copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel are presented, and the import and export profits are calculated based on the equilibrium ratios [1][3] Cross - Period Spread Comparison - The actual spreads and theoretical spreads between different months and the spot month for copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin are compared [4] Spot - Futures Spread Comparison - The actual spreads and theoretical spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot for copper and zinc are compared [4] Cross - Market and Cross - Exchange Ratio Comparison - The cross - market ratios of copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel in domestic and LME markets are compared, and the import and export profits are calculated [1][3] Cross - Period and Spot - Futures Arbitrage Opportunities - By comparing the actual spreads and theoretical spreads in cross - period and spot - futures arbitrage, potential arbitrage opportunities are analyzed [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined, with a rapid weakening of global supply and demand. There was a significant build - up in on - land and waterborne inventories, and the Dubai monthly spread weakened further. Geopolitically, the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations continued. There were rumors that Russia had found more ways to export crude oil. The CPC No. 3 berth is expected to resume on the 17th. Global gasoline and diesel cracks declined, US refinery operations recovered to over 94%, and domestic refinery operations fluctuated. The fundamental surplus has intensified. Without new geopolitical changes, the surplus in the first quarter will be close to that during the pandemic. Short - term monthly spreads and absolute prices should be short - allocated [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Spread Data - From December 9th to 15th, WTI decreased by $0.62, BRENT by $0.56, and DUBAI by $0.36. SC - BRT increased by $0.39, and SC - WTI increased by $0.45. Domestic gasoline decreased by $80, and domestic diesel decreased by $120 [3] 2. Daily News - The EU announced new sanctions on parties related to Russia's "shadow fleet" on December 15th, adding 5 individuals and 4 entities to the sanctions list. It also added 12 individuals and 2 entities due to Russia's "hybrid threats" [3] - After the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, multiple oil tankers turned back, paralyzing Venezuela's oil exports. Over 11 million barrels of crude oil were stranded in Venezuelan waters [3] - As the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations made progress, US crude oil futures fell by $1 during the day [4] 3. Inventory - For the week ending December 5th, EIA crude oil inventory was - 1.812 million barrels, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 248,000 barrels, EIA gasoline inventory was 6.397 million barrels, EIA refined oil inventory was 2.502 million barrels, and EIA Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory was 308,000 barrels. The EIA refinery equipment utilization rate was 94.5% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided text. It mainly offers data on iron ore prices, including spot prices of various iron ore varieties, futures contract prices, and related price changes. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Spot Prices - **Australian Mainstream Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 775, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; PB powder at 778, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Mac powder at 771, unchanged daily and down 2 weekly; Jinbuba at 731, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Mixed powder at 720, down 2 daily and 7 weekly; Super Special powder at 665, down 6 daily and 3 weekly; Carajás powder at 855, down 10 daily and 10 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Ore**: Brazilian Blend at 809, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian Coarse IOC6 at 748, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian Coarse SSFG at 753, down 4 daily and 5 weekly [1]. - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian Concentrate at 855, down 7 daily and 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder at 720, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Karara Concentrate at 855, down 7 daily and 10 weekly; Roy Hill powder at 765, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; KUMBA powder at 837, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; 57% Indian powder at 600, down 6 daily and 3 weekly; Atlas powder at 715, down 2 daily and 7 weekly; Tangshan Iron Concentrate at 969, down 2 daily and 27 weekly [1]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 at 777.0, down 5.5 daily and 1.5 weekly; i2605 at 753.0, down 7.5 daily and 7.5 weekly; i2609 at 731.5, down 6.5 daily and 5.5 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 at 101.98, up 0.54 daily and down 1.41 weekly; FE05 at 99.72, up 0.44 daily and down 1.01 weekly; FE09 at 97.56, up 0.46 daily and down 0.94 weekly [1]. Other Price - Related Information - **Import Profits**: For example, Newman powder's import profit is -7.13; PB powder's is -16.95; Mac powder's is 21.66; Jinbuba's is 20.06 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: For i2601, the monthly spread is -45.5, with a daily change of -5.3 and a weekly change of -9.3; for i2605, it's 24.0, with a daily change of -3.3 and a weekly change of -3.3; for i2609, it's 21.5, with a daily change of -4.3 and a weekly change of -5.3 [1].

台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/16 LP G 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 纸面进口利润 日期 主力基差 华南液化气 华东液化气 同价 化油 E 2025/12/09 549 4440 4392 4450 596 511 4550 7100 -395 199 2025/12/10 4424 4370. 4570 7100 -429 4440 600 557 245 198 2025/12/11 4415 4400 525 4570 7130 4420 610 564 -519 200 2025/12/12 4419 4430 515 4420 600 550 4560 7130 -440 350 2025/12/15 4460 4550 7130 -357 4460 4413 202 510 279 l 日度变化 30 -5 -5 -10 0 83 -71 40 -6 |周一，民用气方面，华东4413（-6），山东4460（+30），华南4460（+40）。懿后碳四4550（-10）。最低交割地为华东，基差24 日度变化 ０（-32），01-02月差1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong before the channel inventory accumulates. In the long - term, if downstream demand weakens seasonally and middlemen release stocks, prices may decline [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets yield increases. With expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, long - term demand is expected to improve, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8]. - Eggs: The inflection point of inventory has emerged. If older hens are culled before Laba, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [12]. - Apples: National cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality goods. The futures market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [16]. - Pigs: Spot prices are strong on weekends. There is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the sustainability of the price rebound and factors that may cause expectation differences [16]. - Sugar: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, and spot weakness drives the futures down. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, prices may decline [5]. 3. Content Summaries by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while that in Jinzhou increased by 20 to 2270. The starch processing profit increased by 2 to - 21 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn spot shows a differentiated trend. In the short - term, the supply is expected to be strong; in the long - term, prices may decline if demand weakens and stocks are released. Starch prices are expected to be stable in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 10 to 5450, and the import profit from Thailand increased by 38 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, causing spot and futures prices to decline. In the long - term, global market conditions will affect prices [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 60 to 14690, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 63 to - 434 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Low initial inventory and positive factors such as production expansion and tariff reduction are expected to improve demand next year [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02, and the base difference decreased by 20 to 490 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The inflection point of inventory has appeared. Culling older hens before Laba may benefit second - quarter prices [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900 [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: National cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The futures market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.05 to 11.43, and the base difference increased by 70 to 125 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices are strong on weekends. Pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound and factors that may cause expectation differences [16].

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间:2025/12/15 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 70 300股指 -- 300股指 IV-HV美 IV-HV差 - 50ETF - 50ETF 20 20 - 1000股指 IV-HV美 -- 1000股指 FOOETF - 500ETF IV-HV 70 10 20 10 Prave IV-HV美 日报 IV-HV美 rtat Disars 60 - 豆粕 IV-HV差 百船 IV-HV差 玉米 王米 30 50 20 30 40 10 10 0 10 10 10 40 10 30 40 日 游 75 30 IV-HV美 棉花 棉花 25 20 20 20 10 15 UI 0 10 TO 10 20 15 5 5 30 20 40 025/3/3/ 024/12/ 2025/1/ 2025/2/ 024/7/ 024/10/ 02 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/15 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/08 145 3804 115035 29956 -857.49 -131.15 40.0 46.0 8.19 164550 63175 2025/12/09 110 4266 115035 29531 -838.94 -8.32 40.0 46.0 0.00 165675 63100 2025/12/10 35 4271 115035 28931 -1168.76 -70.55 41.0 48.0 11.69 164975 65400 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 变化 - ...

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/15 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1540.20 | -54.61 | -54.61 | -51.42 | -10.31% 高炉开工率 | 85.92 | | -1.16 | -2.88 | -1.61% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1845.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.14% 铁水日均产量 | 229.20 | | -3.10 | -7.68 | -1.41% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1770.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.84% 盘面05 | 1657 | -32.00 | -49.50 | -165.50 | -15.82% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -6.70% 盘面09 | 1732.5 | ...