废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/17 华东 स्क 中部 华南 东北 日期 西南 2025/11/105 | 2209 2034 2206 2222 2096 ~ 2277 原点 2220 2097 2025/11/11 2208 2278 2037 2208 2208 2221 2097 2025/11/12 2205 2277 2037 2097 2025/11/13 2203 2275 2037 2208 2226 2025/11/145 容 2199 2275 原占 2036 2209 原 2226 2096 - 环比 -4 0 -1 1 0 -1 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格 (不含税) 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 3,600 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 + 2019 ↓ 2 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 830.0 0.0 15.0 86.0 -20.0 25省终端可用天数 25.9 -0.9 6.0 5.0 8.3 秦皇岛5000 737.0 0.0 14.0 83.0 -18.0 25省终端供煤 546.1 2.3 -62.5 -94.0 -76.8 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 10.0 80.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2286.0 23.0 68.0 89.0 -300.2 鄂尔多斯5500 580.0 -5.0 -5.0 85.0 -50.0 北方锚地船舶 127.0 2.0 17.0 15.0 82.0 大同5500 630.0 -5.0 -5.0 85.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 178.2 -1.8 3.4 48.4 13.5 榆林6000 712.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 -120.0 北方港吞吐量 173.1 -2.9 -2.9 26.2 47.3 榆林6200 740.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 -120.0 CBCFI海运指数 1024.2 -67.8 -95.8 74.8 20 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight de - stocking, ARA's residue oil had inventory accumulation, Fujeirah's residue oil had inventory accumulation, and EIA's residue oil inventory remained flat. [3] - The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillating pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [3][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | +4.64 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +8.27 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.45 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +22.41 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 14.14 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | +1.34 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 | +3.63 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | +4.77 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | +5.78 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +6.41 [1] | | Singapore GO M1 | +0.69 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.24 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | +1.30 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | +5.06 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | +6.84 [2] | | 380 Basis | +0.03 [2] | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.8 [2] | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.6 [2] | Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +27 [2] | | FU 05 | +28 [2] | | FU 09 | +25 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | - 1 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | +3 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | - 2 [2] | Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +76 [3] | | LU 05 | +53 [3] | | LU 09 | +46 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | +23 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | +7 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | - 30 [3] |

焦煤日报 2025/11/17 研究中心黑色团队 1900/1/4 免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息 中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on November 17, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively with no daily change and weekly changes of 0 and -20; the prices of Qinghai 72, Shaanxi 72, Shaanxi 75, Jiangsu 72, and Tianjin 72 also had corresponding price and change data [2] - For silicon manganese, on the same date, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, Yunnan 6517, Guangxi 6014, Ningxia 6517, and Jiangsu 6517 were provided with their daily and weekly changes [2] Supply - The report shows historical data of 136 - company silicon iron production in China (monthly and weekly, capacity ratio 95%), capacity utilization rates of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi silicon - iron production enterprises (monthly), and silicon manganese production in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][6] Demand - It includes historical data on the estimated and actual production of Chinese crude steel (monthly, tons), the price and production of magnesium metal, the demand for silicon manganese in China (ten thousand tons, Steel Union caliber), and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 [4][6][7] Inventory - For silicon iron, it presents the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), CZCE silicon - iron warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5] - For silicon manganese, it shows CZCE silicon - manganese warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), warehouse receipt + effective inventory (daily), and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, it provides data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coking coal, the cost of silicon iron production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and profit data such as Ningxia silicon - iron discounting the main contract profit, Ningxia silicon - iron spot profit, and 75 - grade silicon - iron export profit from 2021 - 2025 [5] - For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (Steel Union caliber), Guangxi silicon - manganese discounting the main contract profit, and Ningxia silicon - manganese discounting the contract profit from 2021 - 2025 [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Australian mainstream iron ore fines: Newman powder price is 780, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; PB powder is 783, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Mac powder is 773, down 3 daily and up 3 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 734, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Mixed powder is 722, down 3 daily and down 3 weekly; Super special powder is 670, down 2 daily and down 3 weekly; Carajás powder is 882, down 1 daily and up 4 weekly [1]. - Brazilian mainstream iron ore fines: Brazilian blend is 820, up 2 daily and up 6 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 783, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 788, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly [1]. - Other varieties: Ukrainian concentrate is 875, unchanged daily and weekly; 61% Indian powder is 723, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; Karara concentrate is 877, unchanged daily and weekly; Roy Hill powder is 770, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; KUMBA powder is 842, unchanged daily and up 10 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 605, down 2 daily and down 3 weekly; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 daily and down 3 weekly [1]. - Domestic ore: Tangshan iron concentrate is 1008, unchanged daily and weekly [1]. Futures Market - Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts: i2601 is 772.5, unchanged daily and up 12 weekly; i2605 is 743.5, down 2 daily and up 3.5 weekly; i2609 is 721.5, down 1.5 daily and down 0.5 weekly [1]. - Singapore Exchange contracts: FE01 is 99.71, up 0.03 daily and down 1.04 weekly; FE05 is 97.40, up 0.01 daily and down 1.10 weekly; FE09 is 95.32, down 0.06 daily and down 1.11 weekly [1]. Premium and Spread - Ore premium: PB lump/ lump ore premium and U - ball/ pellet premium data are presented, but specific analysis is not provided [1]. - Inter - monthly spread: For Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts, i2601 - i2605 spread is - 51.0, unchanged daily and down 1.2 weekly; i2605 - i2609 spread is 29.0, up 2.0 daily and up 7.3 weekly; i2609 - i2601 spread is 22.0, up 1.5 daily and up 11.3 weekly [1].

| 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/10 | 2050 | 2120 | 2140 | 2270 | -44 | 0 | 142 2700 | 2800 | 176 | 8 | | 2025/11/11 | 2070 | 2130 | 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 | 164 2700 | 2800 | 165 | 8 | | 2025/11/12 | 2070 | 2140 | 2150 | 2310 | -37 | 20 | 151 2700 | 2800 | 165 | -12 | | 2025/11/13 | 2070 | 2150 | 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 | 145 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/ ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Volatility Spread - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including stock - index options (300 index, 1000 index, 50ETF, 500ETF), precious metals (silver, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton), energy and chemicals (PTA, methanol, rubber), base metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, PVC), and others (urea, rapeseed meal, palm oil) [3][5] Group 3: Quantile Ranking of Volatility Index and Volatility Spread - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low [6] - The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [6] - There are rankings of historical volatility quantiles and implied volatility quantiles for different varieties such as 300 index, 50ETF, PTA, etc. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol's profit [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, while other price differentials fluctuate. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [5]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is oscillating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the future. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent, the supply pressure can be eased [5]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and export sustainability. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380. PVC's comprehensive profit is - 100. Static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed some fluctuations. The daily change in some prices was - 5, and the import profit and主力基差 remained relatively stable [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, and other products changed. The daily change in North China LL was 20, and the主力期货 price increased by 30 [5]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5600 to 5760. The prices of other products such as East China PP and North China PP also changed. The主力期货 price increased by 20 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 7 to 13, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807. The prices of other products such as电石法 - East China and电石法 - Northwest also showed some changes [5][8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: November 14, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, exceeding market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in floating storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in India in nearly a year. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global oversupply and sanctions support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $55 - $65 in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Data - From November 7 - 13, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated between $58.49 - $61.04, BRENT between $62.71 - $65.16, and DUBAI increased from $64.93 to $64.45 with a change of $0.18. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Daily News - Ukraine's drone attacks damaged apartment buildings and oil depots in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [3]. - The Trump administration lifted the ban on oil extraction in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [4]. - Russian refineries are increasing the utilization of idle capacity to make up for losses caused by Ukrainian drone attacks [4]. - The IEA said that US sanctions may have a profound impact on Russia's crude production outlook, but it maintains its estimate of Russia's average daily crude output of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year [4]. 3.3. Inventory Data - In the week ending November 7, US crude exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined product inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [6]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [6]. - From October 31 - November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.5757 million tons (down 0.4%) and diesel at 12.8962 million tons (down 1.82%) [6].