Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.136, UK 4.476, France 3.523, Germany 2.797, Italy 3.484, Spain 3.259, Switzerland 0.157, Greece 3.391, Japan 1.939, Brazil 6.197, China 1.831, South Korea 3.376, Australia 4.684, New Zealand 4.349 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.561, UK 3.776, Germany 2.093, Japan 1.043, Italy 2.228, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.833, Australia 3.946 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.451, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.934, South Korean won 1472.050, Thailand baht (not provided), Malaysian ringgit 4.111 [3] - The latest exchange rate - related data of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.071, off - shore RMB 7.069, RMB central parity rate 7.075, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.934 [3] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6870.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47954.990, Nasdaq 23578.130, Mexican stock index 63378.300, UK stock index 9667.010, French CAC 8114.740, German DAX 24028.140, Spanish stock index 16688.500, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 50491.870, Hang Seng Index 26085.080, Shanghai Composite Index 3902.808, Taiwan stock index 27980.890, South Korean stock index 4100.050, Indian stock index 8632.761, Thai stock index (not provided), Malaysian stock index 1616.520, Australian stock index 8926.127, emerging - economy stock index 1385.480 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3535.540, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.875, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.560, US high - yield credit - bond index 2901.450, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.330, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1806.999 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3902.81, up 0.70%; CSI 300 closing price 4584.54, up 0.84%; SSE 50 closing price 3002.01, up 0.93%; ChiNext closing price 3109.30, up 1.36%; CSI 500 closing price 7097.84, up 1.21% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.02 with a 0.06环比 change; SSE 50 is 11.86 with a 0.04环比 change; CSI 500 is 32.35 with a 0.41环比 change; S&P 500 is 27.33 with a 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 18.61 with a 0.11环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.48 with a - 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 2.58 with a - 0.05环比 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is 759.67, the main board is 443.70, the ChiNext is 260.14, and CSI 300 is 197.37. The 5 - day average of A - share fund flow is - 395.38, the main board is - 294.49, the ChiNext is - 74.98, and CSI 300 is 17.56 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 17257.71 with a 1768.11环比 change; CSI 300 is 4121.47 with a 633.80环比 change; SSE 50 is 1104.47 with a 218.25环比 change; small - and - medium - sized board is 3269.66 with a 132.41环比 change; ChiNext is 4717.40 with a 600.12环比 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis is - 10.14, amplitude - 0.22%; IH basis is - 4.61, amplitude - 0.15%; IC basis is - 14.64, amplitude - 0.21% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes: T2303 closing price is 108.06, up 0.06%; TF2303 closing price is 105.72, up 0.10%; T2306 closing price is 107.87, up 0.19%; TF2306 closing price is 105.76, up 0.15% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3719% with a - 12.00 BP daily change; R007 is 1.4963% with a 1.00 BP daily change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5800% with a 0.00 BP daily change [5]

Group 1: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Information - The price of the BR main contract (12) on 12/5 was 10410, with a daily change of -45 and an interval change of 100 compared to 11/5 [3][12]. - The holding volume on 12/5 was 30197, with a daily change of -1872 and an interval change of -18607 [3][12]. - The trading volume on 12/5 was 65443, with a daily change of -26058 and an interval change of -58373 [3][12]. - The warrant quantity on 12/5 was 13320, with a daily change of -100 and an interval change of -2520 [3][12]. - The virtual - real ratio on 12/5 was 11.34, with a daily change of -1 and an interval change of -4 [3][12]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The cis - butadiene spread on 12/5 was 40, with a daily change of 45 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The butadiene spread on 12/5 was 540, with a daily change of 45 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The 12 - 01 spread on 12/5 was -35, with a daily change of 40 and an interval change of 60 [3][12]. - The 01 - 02 spread on 12/5 was -25, with a daily change of -30 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. - The RU - BR spread on 12/5 was 4655, with a daily change of 70 and an interval change of -285 [3][12]. - The NR - BR spread on 12/5 was 1635, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of -225 [3][12]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on 12/5 was 10450, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 50 [3][12]. - The Transfar market price on 12/5 was 10400, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 150 [3][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on 12/5 was 10600, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 200 [3][12]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on 12/5 was 1300, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on 12/5 was 1575, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. Profit - The spot processing profit on 12/5 was 906, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 101 [3][12]. - The import profit on 12/5 was -442, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 250 [3][12]. - The export profit on 12/5 was 1401, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -220 [3][12]. Group 2: BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on 12/5 was 7200 (the original text had an unclear value on 11/5), with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The Jiangsu market price on 12/5 was 7050 (the original text had an unclear interval change value), with a daily change of 0 [3][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on 12/5 was 7100, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 0 [3][12]. - The CFR China price on 12/5 was 850, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 30 [3][12]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on 12/3 was -65, and data for 12/4 and 12/5 were unavailable [3][12]. - The carbon - four extraction profit on 12/4 was 202, and data for 12/5 were unavailable [3][12]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on 12/5 was -1764, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 25 [3][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic with little deviation. P1 is around 1550 - 1600 points, P2 is between 1650 - 1700 points, and P3 is expected to be flat [3]. - The EC02 contract has a neutral valuation with short - term upward drivers. Due to the improvement in cargo volume, there are expectations of stable freight rates in late December and price increases in January. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - to - late January 2026). However, the large amount of available capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. A cautious long - position view is maintained [3]. - The EC04 contract has limited short - term downside space. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it may rise following the near - month contract [3]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1658.6, up 0.58% with a trading volume of 443 and an open interest of 3500, a decrease of 231 [2]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1609.9, up 1.57% with a trading volume of 37284 and an open interest of 32215, a decrease of 2007 [2]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1092.9, up 0.26% with a trading volume of 4598 and an open interest of 19350, an increase of 229 [2]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1252.5, down 0.21% with a trading volume of 180 and an open interest of 2108, a decrease of 33 [2]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1367.1, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 88 and an open interest of 1226, an increase of 10 [2]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1040.0, down 0.02% with a trading volume of 406 and an open interest of 3976, an increase of 15 [2]. Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2504: The month - spread was 565.7, with a day - on - day increase of 6.7 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The month - spread was 48.7, with a day - on - day decrease of 15.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The month - spread was 517.0, with a day - on - day increase of 22.1 [2]. Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): Updated on 2025/12/5, at 1400 dollars/TEU, down 0.28% [2]. - CCFI: Updated on 2025/12/5, at 1447.56 points, down 0.12% [2]. - NCFI: Updated on 2025/12/5, at 967.55 points, down 5.57% [2]. European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 50: Maersk's opening price dropped to $2200, setting the tone. Other shipping companies followed suit, with OA at $2300 - 2400 and PA at $1900 - 2100. The current central price is $2200, equivalent to 1550 points on the futures market [4]. - Week 51: Maersk's opening price was $2400 (+$200), and COSCO's offline price was $2400 (+$200). Maersk announced a price increase for January, with the freight for 20 - foot/40 - foot containers on the European line rising to $2275/$3500 respectively [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with Iranian plants starting to shut down, the port and inland markets rebounded in resonance, the basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage facilities. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports in December - January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventory. It is advisable to consider shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract when prices are high [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The upstream of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, and there is no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD prices are weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are currently average, and the raw material and finished product inventories of downstream enterprises are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. 3. Summary of Each Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The spot prices in different regions and other related prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia showed certain fluctuations, and the daily change of the basis was + 9. [1] - **Market Situation**: Iranian plants started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in the port and inland markets. The basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage facilities. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. [1] Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the prices of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 740, and the prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions such as North China LL, East China LL showed different degrees of decline. The daily change of the主力期货 price was - 102, and the basis increased by 30. [3] - **Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral compared to the same period. The upstream and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, and the import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. [3] Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 20, and the prices of various types of polypropylene in different regions such as East China PP and North China PP decreased to varying degrees. The daily change of the主力期货 price was - 72, and the basis increased by 10. [3] - **Market Situation**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. [3] PVC - **Price Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2550 on December 3 - 5, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 742. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 50. [3] - **Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract is - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the middle - and upstream inventories are accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and in Q4, attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability. [3]

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/08 | 日期 | 2025/12/05 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5450.00 | 5496.00 | 5458.00 | 5328.00 | 5190.00 | | 折美元价 | 679.27 | 679.27 | 674.79 | 658.04 | 640.65 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.83697% | 0.69623% | 2.43994% | 2.65896% | -0.15391% | | 山东银星基差 | 50 | 29 | 67 | 97 | 185 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 115 | 79 | 67 | 97 | 195 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 ...

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4243.00, 58.11, 1636.00, 1446.00, 59.67, and 11678.50 respectively. The price changes are 42.40, 0.54, -10.00, -5.00, 0.00, and 202.50 respectively [3] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.06, 1.16, 1.33, 155.12, and 1.88 respectively. The changes are 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 0.03 respectively [3] Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 14221.15, 687.96, and 774.71 respectively. The changes in inventory are 0.00, 33.86, and 0.00 respectively [4] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1050.25 and 15925.21 respectively. The changes are -0.33 and -169.24 respectively [4] - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 2 respectively, with no change [4]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/8 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1594.81 | 0.00 | -54.61 | 3.19 | -9.99% 高炉开工率 | 87.08 | | -0.90 | -0.73 | -0.82% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1845.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | 7.89% 铁水日均产量 | 232.30 | | -2.38 | -1.92 | -0.13% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1770.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -9.46% 盘面05 | 1763 | 1.50 | 20.00 | -142.50 | -8.01% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -9.27% 盘面09 | 1818.5 | -6.50 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1820 1860 1840 1760 理论价差 557 1012 1475 1939 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 485 495 515 505 理论价差 217 340 463 586 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 290 345 360 375 理论价差 221 344 466 588 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 70 85 110 120 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 450 610 860 1100 锡 5-1 价差 530 理论价差 6540 期现套利跟踪 2025/12/08 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -565 1255 理论价差 138 909 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -300 185 理论价差 137 272 免责声明: 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -30 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/08 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/12/01 | 3250 | 3310 | 3290 | 3310 | 3560 | 3430 | | 2025/12/02 | 3250 | 3320 | 3300 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 2025/12/03 | 3210 | 3320 | 3300 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 2025/12/04 | 3190 | 3320 | 3300 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 2025/12/05 | 3180 | 3270 | 3320 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 变化 | -10 | -50 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 ...