1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continued to weaken in a volatile manner on Friday, with a neutral valuation for December. Considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The market is expected to follow the December trend in the short term. If the peak season materializes, the valuation of the February contract is harder to determine, and it may have more upside potential. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile operation in the short - term within the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a strategy of selling on rallies is recommended. - For the recent European line quotes, the cargo booking for Week 45 was completed, and shipping companies could fill their ships. The cargo collection in Week 46 on the PA route improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure will increase in the second half of November, while the cargo volume may pick up. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: On November 10, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, 1376.1, 1499.2, and 1133.4 respectively, with changes of - 1.96%, - 0.56%, - 1.14%, - 2.69%, 1.02%, and - 0.58% compared to the previous day. Their open interest changed by - 2525, 314, 122, - 3, 5, and 32 respectively. [2] - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 647.4, 220.0, and 427.4 respectively on November 10, 2025. Compared to the previous day, they changed by - 22.8, - 27.2, and 4.4 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: As of November 3, 2025, the SCFIS was 1208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% from the previous period. As of November 7, 2025, the SCFI (European line) was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period; and the NCFI was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period. [2] News and Quotes - **Palestinian - Israeli Conflict News**: On November 9, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas stated that armed personnel in the Rafah area under Israeli control would not surrender to Israel. On November 10, the Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire in Gaza breaks down, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. [4] - **European Line Quotes**: In Week 45, the average landed price was about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market). In Week 46, it was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and it is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week. There may also be an announced price increase for December. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in the Indian market in nearly a year. European and American refinery profits rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Hungary will be exempt from US sanctions for purchasing Russian energy. US President Trump met with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban on November 7, and the US government agreed to provide a one - year exemption for Hungary [3]. - Ukraine said Russia launched a large - scale attack on its energy infrastructure on the night of November 7 [3]. - Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports from Ceyhan Port in December are planned to be 17 million barrels, higher than 15.3 million barrels in November [3]. - Brazil's national oil company's oil production in October reached 2.6 million barrels per day, and it added 115,000 barrels per day through capacity upgrades [3]. - US President Trump will auction oil and gas exploration rights in the entire Gulf of Mexico next month [3]. - US energy company EOG expects low or zero growth in its oil production in early 2026 [4]. - Russia's crude oil production in October slightly rebounded to 9.411 million barrels per day but was still 70,000 barrels per day below its OPEC+ quota [4]. - ADNOC and OPEC officials believe that oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040, and geopolitics, trade flows, and sentiment will make fluctuations the norm [4]. - Russia's oil and gas revenue in October decreased by over 26% year - on - year but increased by 52.6% from the previous month due to additional profit tax [4]. - Swiss commodity trader Gunvor withdrew its proposal to acquire overseas assets of Russian energy company Lukoil after US opposition [4]. - Maersk's CEO said it's too early to determine when it's safe to pass through the Red Sea [5]. - China's crude oil imports in October increased by 8.2% year - on - year due to higher refinery operating rates, reaching 48.36 million tons or 11.4 million barrels per day [5]. 2. Inventory - In the week of October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 million barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.7 million barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.344 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [6]. - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) in the week of October 31 were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6]. - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in the week of October 31 was 300,000 barrels, down from 1.334 million barrels in the previous week [6]. - US EIA gasoline inventory in the week of October 31 decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels [6]. - As of the week of November 5, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 1.236 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreasing by 79,000 barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.166 million barrels [6]. - From October 31 to November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.5757 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.8962 million tons, a 1.82% decrease [7]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices were volatile. OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased more than expected. Western sanctions led to high on - board oil storage, and Russian oil had a large discount in India. European and American refinery profits rebounded. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 in Q4 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, with the shutdown in Iran slower than expected, high imports likely in November, difficulties in resolving the 01 contract issues, expected resolution of port sanctions before the end of gas restrictions, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases do not affect profits [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, the external market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable, the import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, the non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around -700, exports are good this year, the PDH profit is around -400, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure in the context of over - capacity, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is extensive [6]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, the downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong, the mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, the recent export orders have slightly decreased, the cost is stable, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [6]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, the daily change of Jiangsu spot price was 4, the daily change of South China spot price was 5, the daily change of Lunan converted to the market price was 12, and the daily change of CFR China was -1 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The actual situation is poor, the shutdown in Iran is slower than expected, high imports are expected in November, the 01 contract issue is difficult to resolve, port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, inventory reduction is difficult, and the upward momentum is limited [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 740, the daily change of North China LL price was 10, and the daily change of the import profit was -1 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, the external market is stable, the import profit is around -200, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 50, the daily change of East China PP price was 40, and the daily change of the主力期货 price was -7 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around -700, exports are good this year, the PDH profit is around -400, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 5, the daily change of the East China电石 - based price was 5, and the basis remained at -70 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, the downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, the mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and the recent export orders have slightly decreased [6].

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3994.10, 48.70, 1562.00, 1405.00, 59.75, and 10715.00 respectively, with changes of 7.60, 0.01, 6.00, -12.00, 0.32, and -52.00 [1] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.55, 1.16, 1.32, 153.43, and 1.83 respectively, with changes of -0.15, 0.00, 0.00, 0.36, and 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver and SHFE Silver are 14933.28 and 623.05 respectively, with changes of -42.05 and -16.89 [2] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1042.06 and 15088.63 respectively, with changes of 1.71 and -25.40 [2] - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are both 2, with changes of 0.00 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from 2025/11/03 to 2025/11/07. For rebar, prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu remained unchanged, while in Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan, there were increases of 20, 40, and 50 respectively. For hot-rolled coils, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged, while in Lecong, there was a decrease of 10. For cold-rolled coils, prices in Tianjin decreased by 10, while in Shanghai and Lecong, they remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread No information provided. Production and Inventory No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report Core View No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. It mainly contains data on pulp prices, import profits, and related industry indices. 3. Content Summary by Category Pulp Futures Data - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 7, 2025, was 5394.00 [1]. - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the closing prices of the main contract were 5306.00, 5288.00, 5360.00, 5368.00, and 5394.00 respectively, with daily percentage changes of 1.80353%, -0.33924%, 1.36157%, 0.14925%, and 0.48435% [1]. - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 650.56, 648.25, 657.08, 658.32, and 658.32 respectively [1]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 194, 212, 140, 132, and 106 from November 3 - 7, 2025, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 219, 227, 155, 157, and 131 respectively [1]. Pulp Import Data - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was -145.57, the Canadian Lion was -493.29, and the Chilean Yinxing was -41.01 [2]. - The port US - dollar prices of Golden Lion, Lion, and Yinxing were 780, 730, and 680 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5450, and 5500 respectively [2]. Pulp and Paper Industry Price Indices - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [2]. - The Shandong region average prices of these pulps also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [2]. - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) remained unchanged from November 4 - 7, 2025, at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 841 respectively [2]. Pulp Price Difference Data - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp were 1250, 1250, 1250, 1240, and 1240 respectively; between softwood and natural pulp were 100; between softwood and chemimechanical pulp were 1700; and between softwood pulp and waste paper were 3924 [2]. Pulp Product Profit Margin Data - From November 4 - 7, 2025, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper were -0.2151%, double - copper paper were 12.9032%, white - card paper were -9.5694% on November 4 - 5 and -7.6381% on November 6 - 7, and living paper were 6.7831% on November 4 - 5 and 6.5730% on November 6 - 7 [2].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - Latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.098, UK 4.465, France 3.462, Germany 2.665, Italy 3.431, Spain 3.184, Switzerland 0.100, Greece 3.304, Japan 1.674, Brazil 6.210, China 1.806, South Korea 3.236, Australia 4.4352, New Zealand 4.078 [3] - Latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.563, UK 3.792, Germany 1.987, Japan 0.935, Italy 2.180, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.807, Australia 3.582 [3] - Latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.334, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 17.304, Korean won 1461.450, Thai baht 32.347, Malaysian ringgit 4.177 [3] - Latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.122, off - shore RMB 7.126, RMB central parity rate 7.084, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.977 [3] - Latest major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6728.800, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46987.100, NASDAQ 23004.540, Mexican index 63376.130, UK index 9682.570, France CAC 7950.180, Germany DAX 23569.960, Spanish index 15901.400, Russian index (not provided), Nikkei 50276.370, Hang Seng Index 26241.830, Shanghai Composite Index 3997.556, Taiwan index 27651.410, South Korean index 3953.760, Indian index 8394.590, Thai index 1302.910, Malaysian index 1619.130, Australian index 9031.697, emerging - economy index 1381.630 [3] - Latest credit bond indices: US investment - grade credit bond index 3522.470, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 265.961, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 289.420, US high - yield credit bond index 2872.890, euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 407.550, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1789.774 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3997.56, 4678.79, 3038.35, 3208.21, and 7327.91 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.31%, - 0.21%, - 0.51%, and - 0.24% [4] - PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.28, 11.95, 33.38, 27.97, and 19.50 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, - 0.03, - 0.08, 0.03, and - 0.13 [4] - Risk premiums of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.52 and 2.46 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.02 [4] - Latest capital flows of A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 754.45, - 513.95, (not provided), - 178.25, and - 107.46 respectively, and 5 - day average values are - 420.92, - 289.61, (not provided), - 96.79, and - 5.15 respectively [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Latest trading amounts of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext are 19990.53, 5075.74, 1198.48, 4098.44, and 4985.18 respectively, with环比 changes of - 561.95, - 460.68, - 240.86, 62.40, and - 26.53 [5] - Basis and amplitude of IF, IH, and IC are - 19.39, - 0.15, - 97.71 and - 0.41%, - 0.00%, - 1.33% respectively [5] - Closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in Treasury bond futures are 108.45, 105.91, 108.20, 105.87 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.08%, - 0.05%, - 0.07%, - 0.06% [5] - Current capital interest rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3916%, 1.4677%, 1.5840% respectively, with daily changes of - 7.00BP, 1.00BP, - 1.00BP [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern where the south is stronger than the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season; the contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall. The international propane market has a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Basis Information - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4374 (+33), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4440 (+50). The price of etherified C4 was 4520 (-90). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with the basis changing by 26 (+63) daily, and the December - January spread at 72 (-16). FEI was 490 (-14) and CP was 463 (-7) dollars per ton [1] - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; Shandong was 4380 (+80), East China 4374 (+95), and South China 4450 (+50). Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80) [1] Market Spread and Margin Information - The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI to 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB to 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1] - The naphtha crack spread changed little and was at a relatively high level this year. The profit of PDH to propylene in Shandong declined significantly (some plants stopped production). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory Information - Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival potential was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6), as Liuhua Yiyuan operated at full capacity, while Binhuahua, Xintai, and Haiwei successively stopped production [1]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/10 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/03 | 2234 | 2298 | 2053 | 2235 | 2261 | 2121 | | 2025/11/04 | 2231 | 2292 | 2052 | 2223 | 2247 | 2116 | | 2025/11/05 | 2220 | 2281 | 2046 | 2213 | 2241 | 2100 | | 2025/11/06 | 2217 | 2279 | 2038 | 2206 | 2233 | 2099 | | 2025/11/07 | 2216 | 2277 | 2038 | 2206 | 2225 | 2099 | | 环比 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 ...

【行情分析】： | 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/03 | 2010 | 2100 | 2180 | 2240 | -41 | -10 | 88 | 2700 | 2800 | 202 | 32 | | 2025/11/04 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -35 | -10 | 88 | 2700 | 2800 | 211 | 32 | | 2025/11/05 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -34 | -10 | 103 | 2700 | 2800 | 204 | 28 | | ...