燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/22 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2025/09/15 | 381.06 | 435.93 | -6.95 | 671.73 | -235.80 | 24.47 | 54.87 | | 2025/09/16 | 385.64 | 443.49 | -7.14 | 686.03 | -242.54 | 25.32 | 57.85 | | 2025/09/17 | 384.75 | 441.33 | -6.96 | 679.88 | -238.55 | 24.97 | 56.58 | | 2025/09/18 | 383.35 | 434.21 | -6.6 ...

免责声明: 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/22 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： S&PGlobal预测2026年美国玉米种植减少，大豆增加 S&PGlobalCommodityInsights周五预测，美国农民明年将种植9,450万英亩玉米，同比下降4.3%，以及8,400万英亩 大豆，同比增长3.6%。 由于供应充足以及关税争端，农民今年在这两种作物上难以盈利。 种植者将在明年春季种植2026年作物，S&PGlobal的报告称，由于持续的贸易谈判，其初步预估比正常情况存在更 多不确定性。 Imea：马托格罗索州2025/26年度大豆种植率为0.55% 根据Imea的调查，巴西主产区马托格罗索州的大豆种植本周开始取得进展。 截至本周五，2025/26年度大豆种植已达到估计面积的0.55%，而去年同期2024/25年度同期为0.27%。 据Imea称，该州的大豆种植高于该时期0.48%的历史平均水平。 Pátria AgroNegócios：巴西大豆种植率为0.7% 咨询公司PátriaAgroNegócios的调查显示，截至本周五，巴西2025/2026年度 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Non-ferrous Arbitrage Morning Report" released by the Non-ferrous Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025, focusing on cross - market, cross - period, and cross -品种 arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Copper - Spot price: domestic 79980, LME 9898, ratio 8.05; March price: domestic 79880, LME 9963, ratio 8.02; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.11, profit - 331.21; Spot export profit - 55.51 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22000, LME 2969, ratio 7.41; March price: domestic 22060, LME 2918, ratio 5.87; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.53, profit - 3326.26 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20810, LME 2698, ratio 7.71; March price: domestic 20795, LME 2693, ratio 7.74; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.37, profit - 1780.86 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 120750, LME 15146, ratio 7.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.18, profit - 2190.00 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 17025, LME 1967, ratio 8.64; March price: domestic 17200, LME 2011, ratio 10.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.82, profit - 347.77 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Copper - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 230, 260, 240, 240 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 500, 898, 1305, 1712 respectively [4] Zinc - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 5, 25, 45, 75 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 213, 332, 452, 571 respectively [4] Aluminum - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 20, 20, 15, 20 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 respectively [4] Lead - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 35, 55, 25, 30 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 531 respectively [4] Nickel - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 790, 980, 1220, 1460 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 640, theoretical spread is 5579 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Copper - Current month contract - spot spread is - 330, theoretical spread is 398; Sub - month contract - spot spread is - 100, theoretical spread is 874 [4] Zinc - Current month contract - spot spread is 35, theoretical spread is 182; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 40, theoretical spread is 311 [4] Lead - Current month contract - spot spread is 120, theoretical spread is 188; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 155, theoretical spread is 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - Copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.62, 3.84, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively; London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.46, 3.74, 5.00, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/22 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/15 | 2242 | 2329 | 2071 | 2260 | 2284 | 2152 | | 2025/09/16 | 2257 | 2333 | 2074 | 2270 | 2286 | 2154 | | 2025/09/17 | 2259 | 2333 | 2080 | 2268 | 2286 | 2169 | | 2025/09/18 | 2258 | 2332 | 2081 | 2261 | 2290 | 2170 | | 2025/09/19 | 2258 | 2330 | 2081 | 2259 | 2290 | 2168 | | 环比 | 0 | -2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | -2 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 705.0 5.0 24.0 3.0 -165.0 25省终端可用天数 22.0 -0.3 2.1 1.1 4.4 秦皇岛5000 615.0 4.0 26.0 -18.0 -145.0 25省终端供煤 587.5 2.2 -21.1 -52.6 -35.4 广州港5500 765.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 -145.0 北方港库存 2050.0 -7.0 23.0 -20.0 -187.5 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 5.0 35.0 10.0 -120.0 北方锚地船舶 86.0 5.0 4.0 16.0 3.0 大同5500 560.0 5.0 40.0 0.0 -150.0 北方港调入量 153.0 -7.4 -9.8 -3.6 -4.0 榆林6000 642.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 -178.0 北方港吞吐量 156.7 3.3 -11.3 3.2 73.0 榆林6200 670.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 -177.0 CBCFI海运指数 694.0 1.9 89.7 -22.1 29 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA: Near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases slightly, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates slightly, the basis weakens, and spot processing fees recover slightly. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas devices operate smoothly, PXN weakens month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remain stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widens. In the future, as device restarts slow down TA destocking, polyester shows no unexpected performance, and new production is added, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees have reached a very low level for a long time, and PX supply gradually returns. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduces load, coal - based start - up remains stable, overseas maintenance and restarts coexist, arrivals remain stable while shipments are dull, and port inventory accumulates slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels rise, the basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. Near - term new device commissioning is earlier than expected, and valuation is significantly compressed. In the future, with the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the expectation of high supply in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber: Upstream, Zhongtai and Xianglu increase load, and the start - up rate rises to 95.4%. Sales improve month - on - month, and inventory continues to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished - product inventory decreases. In the future, the rate of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, but inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable. The price of Thai cup rubber remains stable, and there is rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its derivatives: There are fluctuations in prices and production profits of styrene and related products such as ABS, EPS, and PS. The start - up rates of these products also show certain trends, but no clear overall prediction is given in the report [1]. 3. Summary by Product - related Content PTA - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated between 66.7 - 68.5. PTA spot prices were around 6655 - 6710, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(- 82). PX processing spreads were between 105.04 - 114.16 [1]. - **Device status**: Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton device is under maintenance [1]. MEG - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, MEG prices fluctuated. For example, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 850 (except on September 19 when it was 845), and the MEG port inventory was 46.5. The basis was around 01(+ 90) [1]. - **Device status**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped operating again [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - related - **Market data**: The spot price was around 6412, and the market basis was around 10 - 20. - **Device status**: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their loads, and the start - up rate reached 95.4% [1]. Natural Rubber - related - **Market data**: From September 1 - 9, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber such as Shanghai full - cream rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - cream rubber was between 14,335 - 16,100 [1]. - **Analysis**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable [1]. Styrene and Derivatives - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) was between 5885 - 6080 [1]. - **Profit situation**: Profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed daily [1].

Group 1: Report Information - Report name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Contract Data - On September 19, the closing price of the main contract was 11,445, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3] - The position volume of the main contract was 75,259, a daily increase of 756 and a weekly increase of 54,200 [3] - The trading volume of the main contract was 94,561, a daily decrease of 21,553 and a weekly increase of 41,606 [3] Warehouse Receipts and Ratios - The number of warehouse receipts was 10,230, a daily decrease of 760 and a weekly decrease of 3,440 [3] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 36.78, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 29 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber was 20 higher than the previous day and 70 higher than the previous week [3] - The basis (two - oil) of butadiene rubber was 255, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [3] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily decrease of 40 [3] - The 9 - 10 month spread was 130, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 70 [3] Price and Cost - The Shandong market price was 11,600, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3] - The Chuanhua market price was 11,450, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, with no daily or weekly change [3] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1525, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 290, a daily decrease of 27 and a weekly decrease of 177 [3] - The disk processing profit was - 445, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 247 [3] - The import profit was - 82,940, a daily increase of 39 and a weekly increase of 1,657 [3] - The export profit was 107, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 142 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 75 [3] - The Jiangsu market price was 9,200, a daily increase of 50 [3] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, with no daily or weekly change [3] - CFR China was 1070, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 25 [3] Profit Data - The carbon four extraction profit was not available for the latest data [3] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 106, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 70 [3] - The import profit was 450, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly increase of 215 [3] - The export profit was - 899, a daily decrease of 43 and a weekly increase of 60 [3] Group 4: Downstream Product Profit Data - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 445, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 247 [3] - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 938, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 175 [3] - The ABS production profit data was not available for the latest data [3] - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 855, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30 [3] Group 5: Price Spread Data - The RU - BR spread was - 59,724, a daily decrease of 791 and a weekly decrease of 54,485 [3] - The NR - BR spread was - 62,959, a daily decrease of 756 and a weekly decrease of 54,455 [3] - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,130, a daily decrease of 70 and a weekly decrease of 150 [3] - The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,050, with no daily or weekly change [3] - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 200, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3] - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1000, with no daily or weekly change [3]

Report Overview - The report is an asphalt morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 22, 2025 [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - No core view is explicitly stated in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 19, the BU main contract was at 3421, down 6 from the previous day and 42 for the week. Other contracts like BU06, BU09, etc., also showed various price changes [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 246,616, up 36,008 from the previous day but down 21,872 for the week. The open interest was 409,431, up 675 from the previous day and down 34,400 for the week [4] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory was 23,240, unchanged from the previous day and down 3,250 for the week [4] Spot Market - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 3,520, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 for the week; the East China market price was 3,590, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 for the week; and prices in other regions also had different changes [4] - **Refinery Prices**: For example, Jingbo (Haiyun) was at 3,620, down 10 from the previous day and 30 for the week; Xinhai (Xin Bohai) was at 3,660, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 for the week [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis was 6, up 6 from the previous day and 22 for the week; the East China basis was 169, up 6 from the previous day and down 8 for the week; and other regional bases also changed [4] - **Calendar Spreads**: For example, 03 - 06 was 17, down 2 from the previous day and up 15 for the week; 06 - 09 was 8, down 1 from the previous day and up 75 for the week [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread was 18, up 26 from the previous day and down 40 for the week [4] - **Profits**: The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -51, up 24 from the previous day and down 36 for the week; ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 387, up 7 from the previous day and down 52 for the week; and other profit indicators also had different changes [4] Related Prices - **Crude Oil**: Brent crude oil was at 67.4, down 0.5 from the previous day and up 0.5 for the week [4] - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market price of gasoline was 7,483, down 28 from the previous day and 74 for the week; the Shandong market price of diesel was 6,438, down 30 from the previous day and 40 for the week [4] - **Residual Oil**: The Shandong market price of residual oil was 3,660, down 40 from the previous day and up 85 for the week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to arriving resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data and Changes - From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends. South China increased from 4540 to 4650 (+100), East China decreased from 4504 to 4415 (-92), and Shandong remained at 4530 with a previous increase of 30. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased from 4790 to 4700 (-60). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - On a daily basis, the PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6) [1]. - Ex - market prices rose. The FEI spread increased by 1, the MB spread remained unchanged, and the CP spread was -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP dropped to 75 (-3); PG - FEI dropped to 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP increased to 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. Market Conditions and Trends - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7). FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - PDH - to - PP profits continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. The inflow to ports decreased, the outflow increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfafa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1].

Report Information - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and terminal demand is weakening, so the price is weak, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, the price is expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - **Starch**: In September, companies start to destock for the new season, pressuring corn prices. In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. The uncertainty of future production increases. Domestically, the market follows the trend of raw sugar, with downward pressure on the price due to the arrival of imported sugar [4] - **Cotton**: The market is in a shock state, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risk events, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [6] - **Eggs**: Since September, due to increased demand for school opening and festival stocking, the spot price has rebounded. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Attention should be paid to the situation of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [9] - **Apples**: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is temporarily stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - **Pigs**: There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure still exists due to insufficient production capacity reduction. The spot price is hitting new lows, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and other places remained mostly unchanged, with the base difference of corn changing by 9, and the base difference of starch changing by 8 [2] - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weak, and long - term it is under pressure. For starch, short - term price reduction to reduce inventory, long - term bearish outlook [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 7, and the import profit changing by - 47 [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices, and domestic prices are under pressure due to imported sugar [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecasts) decreased by 206 [6] - **Analysis**: The market is in shock, waiting for demand verification, and the downward space is limited [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 237 [9] - **Analysis**: Spot price rebounded in September, but high inventory limits the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost [9] Apples - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the base differences in different months changed slightly [10][11] - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, the current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is stable [11] Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other places changed slightly, and the base difference changed by 5 [15] - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure exists, and the spot price is hitting new lows [15]