1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price changes, production and sales, and profit margins [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40, while the price of Shandong 5mm large - plate remained unchanged. Futures contracts such as FG05 and FG01 also had price increases [2] - **Production and Sales**: In the glass market, the production and sales in Shahe area declined, with poor shipments at low prices. In Hubei, factory transactions were acceptable, but the transactions of new products in the middle - reaches were poor. The production and sales rates in different regions were as follows: Shahe 88, Hubei 102, East China 99, and South China 102 [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of glass production in different regions and using different energy sources varied. For example, the profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 7.7, and the profit of South China natural - gas glass decreased by 6.3. The cost of North China coal - fired glass increased by 16.7 [2] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products in different regions generally increased. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda increased by 30, and the price of North China light soda increased by 40. Futures contracts such as SA05 and SA01 also had price increases [2] - **Industry Situation**: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased significantly, while the delivery warehouse inventory increased significantly, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profits of soda ash production in different production methods and regions also changed. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 6.2, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 35.5. The cost of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 28.3 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak trend. The current valuation of the December contract is relatively neutral to high, and it may experience a deeper short - term decline. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. In terms of valuation, the February contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long positions compared to the December contract, while the April contract has a relatively high valuation and is more suitable for short positions in the off - season, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1105.9, down 0.34%, with a trading volume of 19585, an open interest of 47173, and a decrease of 2436 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1645.3, down 1.60%, with a trading volume of 9304, an open interest of 20570, and an increase of 133 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1566.1, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 1549, an open interest of 7215, and an increase of 110 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1255.2, down 2.32%, with a trading volume of 1289, an open interest of 8534, and an increase of 200 in open interest [2][17]. - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1453.5, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 68, an open interest of 936, and an increase of 12 in open interest [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 539.4, with a daily increase of 22.9 and a weekly decrease of 86.8 [2][17]. - FC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 79.2, with a daily decrease of 14.0 and a weekly decrease of 30.2 [2][17]. Spot Market Indicators - SCHIS: On September 15, 2025, it was 0 points, down 100.00% from the previous period and down 11.68% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - SCEI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and down 11.21% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - CCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and down 2.79% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - NCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and down 7.92% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. Recent European Line Quotations - Week 39: The average quote was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quote was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance's quote was between 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance's quote was between 1600 - 1720 dollars [2][17]. - Week 40: The average quote was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points on the futures market). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL reduced its price to between 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [2][17]. - Week 41: MSK kept the price at 1400 dollars. On Thursday, YML reduced the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points on the futures market. CMA reduced the price by 100 to 1600 dollars, and EMC's Week 40 price was 1500 dollars [2][17].

Group 1: Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility compared to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] - Implied volatility quantile represents the historical level of the current variety's implied volatility. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means the current implied volatility is low [4] - Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile Ranking - For the 50ETF, the implied volatility quantile is 0.80, and the historical volatility quantile is 0.76 [5][7] - For the 300 Index, the implied volatility quantile is 0.78, and the historical volatility quantile is 0.71 [5] - For other varieties such as Tianjun, Yingge, etc., their implied and historical volatility quantiles are also provided in the report [5] Group 3: Volatility Spread Chart - The report presents the IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, etc. through charts, showing the relationship between implied volatility and historical volatility for each option [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the copper price corrects, long positions can be considered for mid - term layout below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, pay attention to demand. Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Indonesian forestry department's takeover of part of the nickel mine [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation remains weak, and it is affected by the Indonesian incident and macro - anti - involution expectations [6]. - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand will be in a tight balance in September and October, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan this week and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream is in the stage of consuming finished - product inventory [1]. - **Premium**: The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive arbitrage has room [1]. - **Macro**: Copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and attention should be paid to the possible realization of short - term bullish factors after the FOMC meeting next week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices declined slightly this week. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream开工 improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic supply is affected by smelter maintenance and high - volume imported zinc ore. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has production resistance [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fluctuated slightly this week. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehousing [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak [3]. - **News**: The Indonesian parade subsided, and the Indonesian forestry department took over part of the nickel mine [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices were stable this week. The inventory in Xijiao and Wuxi remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to recover, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6]. - **Cost**: The price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rose this week. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to be tight, and demand is in the peak season but not prosperous [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Domestic inventory fluctuated, and LME inventory rebounded from a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is short - term tight, and demand has limited elasticity [9]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon changed this week, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance in September and October [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. The futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week, and the basis strengthened slightly [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by compliance disturbances, and the demand is in the peak season but the destocking amplitude is small [12]. - **Price Elasticity**: The price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/12 | 62.69 | 66.99 | 70.20 | - | 0.45 | -4.30 | -0.02 | 198.54 | 16.40 | 229.00 | 29.19 | | 2025/09/15 | 63.30 | 67.44 | 70.74 | - | 0.40 | -4.14 | -0.02 | 201.34 | 17.12 | 233.11 | 30.47 | | 2025/09/16 | 64.52 | 68.47 | 70.97 | - ...

2025/9/19 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1427.78 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -53.55 | -11.51% 高炉开工率 | 90.18 | | 4.39 | -0.04 | 7.87% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -55.00 | 7.69% 铁水日均产量 | 241.02 | | 0.47 | 0.27 | 7.68% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1605.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -55.00 | -10.34% 盘面05 | 1853.5 | -3.50 | 104.00 | 85.50 | -2.58% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -55.00 | -10.11% 盘面09 | 1902 | ...

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3643.70, with a change of -37.30 [1] - London Silver latest price is 41.86, with a change of 0.59 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1369.00, with a change of -32.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1161.00, with a change of -23.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 63.57, with a change of -0.48 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9942.50, with a change of -122.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.37, with a change of 0.33 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.18, with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.36, with a change of -0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 148.00, with a change of 1.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 16300.91, with a change of -38.59 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1203.52, with a change of -17.91 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 975.66, with a change of 0.00 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 15205.14, with a change of 15.53 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, with a change of -1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, with a change of 0.00 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Spot Prices**: - LiuLin Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1503.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 102.00, a monthly increase of 50.00, and an annual increase of 7.36% [2] - Raw Coal Port Delivery Price: The latest price is 990.00, a daily decrease of 10.00, a weekly increase of 47.00, a monthly increase of 34.00, and an annual decrease of 13.16% [2] - ShaHeYi Meng 5: The latest price is 1350.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 30.00, a monthly decrease of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 18.18% [2] - AnZe Main Coking Coal: The latest price is 1500.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 80.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 10.71% [2] - **Peak Downs and Goonyella**: - Peak Downs: The latest price is 203.00, a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and an annual increase of 1.00 [2] - Goonyella: The latest price is 204.00, a daily increase of 1.00, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 5.50, and an annual increase of 2.00 [2] - **Futures Prices**: - Futures 05: The latest price is 1302.50, a daily decrease of 6.50, a weekly increase of 82.00, a monthly increase of 93.00, and an annual increase of 2.24% [2] - Futures 09: The latest price is 1360.50, a daily decrease of 3.00, a weekly increase of 402.50, a monthly increase of 316.00, and an annual increase of 5.92% [2] - Futures 01: The latest price is 1215.50, a daily decrease of 14.00, a weekly increase of 78.00, a monthly increase of 51.50, and an annual decrease of 4.25% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Capacity Utilization - **Inventory**: - Total Inventory: The latest inventory is 3372.99, a weekly increase of 56.61, a monthly decrease of 100.63, and an annual decrease of 10.92% [2] - Coal Mine Inventory: The latest inventory is 232.79, a weekly decrease of 21.73, a monthly decrease of 42.85, and an annual decrease of 15.02% [2] - Port Inventory: The latest inventory is 271.11, a weekly decrease of 4.38, a monthly increase of 15.62, and an annual decrease of 34.53% [2] - Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory: The latest inventory is 793.73, a weekly decrease of 2.03, a monthly decrease of 12.07, and an annual increase of 10.49% [2] - Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory: The latest inventory is 883.54, a weekly decrease of 36.51, a monthly decrease of 93.34, and an annual increase of 4.31% [2] - Coking Plant Coke Inventory: The latest inventory is 86.03, a weekly increase of 0.10, a monthly decrease of 0.14, and an annual decrease of 0.06% [2] - **Capacity Utilization**: Coking Capacity Utilization is 75.87, a weekly decrease of 0.05, a monthly increase of 1.45, and an annual increase of 9.88% [2] Group 4: Basis and Spread - **Basis**: - 05 Basis: The latest basis is -18.94, a daily increase of 82.36, a weekly increase of 16.85, a monthly decrease of 61.97, and an annual decrease of 217.01 [2] - 09 Basis: The latest basis is -76.94, a daily increase of 78.86, a weekly decrease of 303.65, a monthly decrease of 284.97, and an annual decrease of 1.41 [2] - 01 Basis: The latest basis is 68.06, a daily increase of 89.86, a weekly increase of 20.85, a monthly decrease of 20.47, and an annual decrease of 0.66 [2] - **Spread**: - 5 - 9 Spread: The latest spread is -58.00, a daily decrease of 3.50, a weekly decrease of 320.50, a monthly decrease of 223.00, and an annual increase of 4.52% [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: The latest spread is 145.00, a daily increase of 11.00, a weekly increase of 324.50, a monthly increase of 264.50, and an annual increase of 8.67% [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: The latest spread is -87.00, a daily decrease of 7.50, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly decrease of 41.50, and an annual increase of 18.33% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Methanol: The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It is still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina are destocking, coal - chemical industry is destocking, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for 09 contract is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The external market in Europe, America and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD production conversion and US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [3]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis for the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure with PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of methanol price data include 0 for power coal futures, - 12 for Jiangsu spot, - 13 for South China spot, - 5 for Lunan converted to the disk, - 10 for Southwest converted to the disk, 0 for Hebei converted to the disk, 0 for Northwest converted to the disk, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for the main contract basis, and 0 for the MTO profit on the disk [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price and Inventory Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 850. The daily change of North China LL was - 40, and other prices such as East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD remained unchanged. The import profit was stable, the main contract futures price decreased by 57, the basis decreased by 10, and the two - oil inventory and warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price and Inventory Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remained unchanged. The East China PP price decreased by 20, the North China PP price decreased by 22, the main contract futures price decreased by 56, the basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 22, the East China price of calcium carbide method decreased by 30, and other prices such as the East China price of ethylene method, the South China price of calcium carbide method remained unchanged. The export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, and North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [3] [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On September 18, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5014.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5042.00, a decrease of 0.55534%. The discount to the US dollar price was 615.54 [3]. - The price trends from September 12 - 18, 2025, showed fluctuations, with the highest closing price of 5068.00 on September 16 and the lowest of 4990.00 on September 12 [3]. Basis and Import Profit - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 18, 2025, was 611, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 636 [3]. - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands: Canadian Golden Lion had an import profit of - 136.75, Canadian Lion had - 485.04, and Chilean Yinxing had - 229.70, all calculated with 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Pulp and Paper Prices and Margins - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the Shandong regional average prices [4]. - For paper products, cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper indices), packaging paper (white card index) remained stable from September 15 - 18, 2025, while the living paper index increased by 4 [4]. - The profit margins of different paper products showed slight changes from September 15 - 18, 2025. Double - offset paper profit margin increased by 0.0506, double - copper paper by 0.0459, white card paper by 0.0368, and living paper by 0.0764 [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural, coniferous - chemimechanical, coniferous - wastepaper) showed a decreasing trend from September 12 - 18, 2025 [4].