Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3826.85 with a change of 57.00 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 46.95 with a change of 1.95 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1552.00 with a change of 47.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1275.00 with a change of 41.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 63.45 with a change of -2.27 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10264.00 with a change of -7.50 [1] - The latest Dollar Index is 97.93 with a change of -0.26 [1] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.34 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 148.61 with a change of -0.89 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 16531.01 with a change of 35.45 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 1189.65 with a change of 31.38 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1011.73 with a change of 6.01 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15521.35 with a change of 159.51 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 1252.41 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [1] Group 3: Other Information - There is a section about precious metal ratios [2] - The data sources for the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [5]

Report Overview - The report is a steel morning report released by the black team of the research center on September 30, 2025, providing price data for various types of steel [1] Price and Profit Spot Prices Rebar - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan rebar decreased by 10, 20, 30, 30, 10, and 20 respectively [1] Hot - Rolled Coil - During the same period, the prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong hot - rolled coils decreased by 20, 20, and 30 respectively [1] Cold - Rolled Coil - The prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong cold - rolled coils changed by 0, - 120, and - 10 respectively from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [1] Production and Inventory - No relevant content provided Basis and Spread - No relevant content provided Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - No clear core view presented in the provided content, mainly presenting steel spot price data and their changes

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a morning report on methanol and polyolefins, issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Methanol Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025, the daily change of动力煤期货 price was 0,江苏现货 increased by 12,华南现货 decreased by 2, and西北折盘面 increased by 5 [2] Core View - The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port backflow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked to the inland price. Xingxing is expected to start in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. The current valuation, inventory, and driving force are not good, so bottom - fishing needs to wait [2] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained unchanged,华北LL increased by 20,华东LL increased by 15, and主力期货 increased by 22 [6] Core View - For polyethylene, Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6] Group 4: Polypropylene (PP) Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025,山东丙烯 decreased by 60,华东PP decreased by 10,华北PP decreased by 13, and山东粉料 decreased by 30 [7] Core View - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories of Sinopec and PetroChina are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] Group 5: PVC Price Data - From September 23 - 29, 2025,西北电石 decreased by 50,山东烧碱 decreased by 10, and电石法 - 西北 decreased by 20 [7] Core View - The basis of PVC is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [7]

Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Daily Report on Major Asset Classes [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 4.140%, UK 4.700%, France 3.531%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US -0.036, UK -0.045, France -0.037, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US -0.008, UK -0.012, France -0.028, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US -0.090, UK -0.050, France -0.005, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.389, UK 0.778, France 0.594, etc [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 3.640%, UK 3.983%, Germany 2.020%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US 0.070, UK -0.026, Germany -0.007, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US 0.070, UK 0.008, Germany 0.006, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US 0.120, UK 0.023, Germany 0.069, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.050, UK 0.071, Germany -0.126, etc [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - Rates on September 29, 2025: Brazil 5.322, South Africa ZAR 17.273, South Korean Won 1400.400, etc [3] - Latest Changes: Brazil -0.40%, South Africa ZAR -0.37%, South Korean Won -0.72%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: Brazil -0.24%, South Africa ZAR -0.31%, South Korean Won 0.66%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Brazil -2.15%, South Africa ZAR -1.96%, South Korean Won 0.50%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: Brazil -3.88%, South Africa ZAR -0.45%, South Korean Won 4.88%, etc [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Values on September 29, 2025: S&P 500 6661.210, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46316.070, NASDAQ 22591.150, etc [3] - Latest Changes: S&P 500 0.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.15%, NASDAQ 0.48%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.14%, NASDAQ -0.87%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Mexico Index 6.36%, UK Index 1.13%, France CAC 2.24%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: S&P 500 16.48%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.95%, NASDAQ 25.69%, etc [3] Credit Bond Indices - Values on September 29, 2025: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3517.910, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 265.036, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.34%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.13%, etc [4] - One-Week Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.09%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.08%, etc [4] - One-Month Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 1.56%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.51%, etc [4] - One-Year Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.50%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.93%, etc [4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A-share 3862.53, CSI 300 4620.05, SSE 50 2973.04, etc [5] - Price Changes (%): A-share 0.90%, CSI 300 1.54%, SSE 50 1.09%, etc [5] Valuation - PE(TTM): CSI 300 14.19, SSE 50 11.73, CSI 500 34.92, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: CSI 300 0.15, SSE 50 0.05, CSI 500 0.47, etc [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-Year Interest Rate: S&P 500 -0.53, Germany DAX 2.40 [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: S&P 500 0.03, Germany DAX 0.04 [5] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A-share 836.51, Main Board 463.46, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] - Average Values in the Past 5 Days: A-share -302.46, Main Board -264.41, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] Trading Volume - Latest Values: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 21614.61, CSI 300 6933.95, SSE 50 1899.69, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 145.76, CSI 300 946.71, SSE 50 397.81, etc [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis: IF -15.45, IH 2.96, IC -118.36 [5] - Premium or Discount Ratios: IF -0.33%, IH 0.10%, IC -1.61% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 107.660, TF00 105.485, T01 107.325, TF01 105.360 [6] Price Changes (%) - T00 0.00%, TF00 0.00%, T01 0.00%, TF01 0.00% [6] Money Market - Capital Interest Rates: R001 1.3776%, R007 1.8694%, SHIBOR-3M 1.5800% [6] - Daily Changes (BP): R001 -17.00, R007 32.00, SHIBOR-3M 0.00 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Regional Scrap Steel Prices - Scrap steel prices in East China, Central China, Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China from September 23 - 29, 2025 are presented, with specific prices and their daily changes [1][12] - The price of Shagang's heavy - three scrap steel (tax - included) from 2022 - 2025 shows a general downward trend over the years [2][3] - The price of Zhenjiang Hongtai's shear scrap (tax - excluded) from 2022 - 2025 also shows a downward trend [4][5] 3.2. Scrap Steel Inventory and Consumption - Steel mill scrap steel inventory from 2022 - 2025 is presented, but detailed numerical information is incomplete [7] - Short - process daily consumption from 2022 - 2025 shows different consumption levels throughout the year [8] - Long - process daily consumption from 2022 - 2025 also shows different consumption levels during the year [13] - Scrap steel social inventory from 2019 - 2025 shows the inventory situation over the years [10][11] 3.3. Scrap Steel Arrival - Zhangjiagang's scrap steel arrival from 2022 - 2025 is presented [9] - The scrap steel arrival of 147 steel mills from 2022 - 2025 is presented [13] 3.4. Other Indicators - The difference between the price of screw steel and scrap steel in East China from 2022 - 2025 is presented [11] - The profit of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace threaded steel from 2022 - 2025 is presented [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent crude closing above $68 per barrel. The month - spreads of Brent and WTI crude rebounded, while the Dubai month - spread declined. There is a divergence between crude oil fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risk factors. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, with an absolute level similar to that in 2019 and at a high in the past five years. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth - quarter crude oil balance and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Recently, the market has been trading around sanctions and risk - premium concerns, and short - covering has affected the market performance. Attention should be paid to risks before the National Day holiday [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October meeting as rising oil prices encourage the group to regain market share. OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy since April and has increased the quota by over 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 2.4% of global oil demand. An online meeting of eight member countries will be held on October 5 to decide the production arrangement for November [3] - The substitution ratio of LNG and new energy for diesel consumption exceeds 20%. The sales of LNG and new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased year - on - year, with a substitution volume of 3.86 million tons and a substitution ratio of 20.2%. In August, the terminal consumption of diesel was weak due to high - temperature and rainy weather, and the substitution effect of new - energy and LNG heavy - duty trucks on diesel consumption in logistics has been steadily increasing [4] - An Iraqi oil ministry official said that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [4] - The total number of U.S. oil rigs in the week ending September 26 was 424, up from 418 in the previous week [4] - The arbitrage window for U.S. crude oil to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower - priced Middle - East crude oil, which is closer to major global demand regions [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day [6] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [6] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6] - From September 12 to September 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated and strengthened, while that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent and WTI crude month - spreads rebounding and Dubai month - spread declining. There is a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risks. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, and OPEC's net crude oil exports rebounded significantly. The U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, along with gasoline and diesel inventories. Global refinery profits rebounded again. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus in the crude oil balance in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in 2026 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term TA has a mix of maintenance and restart, with a slight increase in operation, a decline in polyester load, a small inventory build - up, stable basis, and continued repair of spot processing fees. PX domestic operation is stable, overseas units are under maintenance, PXN weakens, disproportionation benefits are stable while isomerization benefits weaken, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains. TA has additional load - reduction and production - cut plans, but with no significant performance in polyester, far - month inventory build - up is expected. After valuation repair, far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable, and attention should be paid to additional maintenance [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, there are some overseas maintenance, port inventory builds up slightly at the beginning of next week with flat shipping, downstream stocking level drops, basis weakens, and the benefit ratio further shrinks. EG new units start earlier than expected, with significant valuation compression. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term unit operation is stable, operation rate remains at 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, finished - product inventory is reduced, and benefits are weak. In the future, the speed of increasing load may slow down due to high finished - product inventory in polyester yarn. The operation rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [3]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The main contradiction is that the national visible inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - **Styrene**: No overall outlook is provided in the report, but price and profit data for related products are presented. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 23 to 29, crude oil decreased by 2.1, naphtha decreased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3, PTA spot price remained unchanged, POY 150D/48F increased by 20, naphtha cracking spread increased by 15.08, PX processing margin increased by 4, PTA processing margin decreased by 9, and polyester profit increased by 20. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 3600, and the basis increased by 7 [2]. - **Operation and Market Situation**: Near - term TA operation slightly increased, polyester load decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, basis was stable, and spot processing fees continued to repair. PX domestic operation was stable, overseas units were under maintenance, PXN weakened, disproportionation benefits were stable while isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained [2]. - **Future Outlook**: TA has additional load - reduction and production - cut plans, but with no significant performance in polyester, far - month inventory build - up is expected. After valuation repair, far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable, and attention should be paid to additional maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 23 to 29, Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price increased by 1, MEG far - month price decreased by 5, MEG coal - based profit increased by 1, and MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) increased by 4. Other indicators remained unchanged [3]. - **Operation and Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, there are some overseas maintenance, port inventory builds up slightly at the beginning of next week with flat shipping, downstream stocking level drops, basis weakens, and the benefit ratio further shrinks [3]. - **Future Outlook**: EG new units start earlier than expected, with significant valuation compression. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 23 to 29, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 40, the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, and other prices had minor changes. Short - fiber profit decreased by 62, and pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 5 [3]. - **Operation and Market Situation**: Near - term unit operation is stable, operation rate remains at 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, finished - product inventory is reduced, and benefits are weak [3]. - **Future Outlook**: The speed of increasing load may slow down due to high finished - product inventory in polyester yarn. The operation rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 23 to 29, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 10, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed decreased by 20, and other prices had various changes. The weekly change in RU main contract decreased by 240, and the weekly change in NR main contract increased by 5 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The main contradiction is that the national visible inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects tapping [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 23 to 29, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and other prices had minor changes. Styrene domestic profit remained at - 445, EPS domestic profit increased by 10, PS domestic profit decreased by 10, and ABS domestic profit remained at - 926 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near - month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently showed wide - range fluctuations. The FU internal - external near - month also fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level year - on - year, the spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external price rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated [3][4]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residual oil decreased, floating storage fluctuated, ARA residual oil inventory decreased slightly, EIA residual oil decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly. The high - sulfur Middle - East peak season has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has completed its repair. Recently, refinery feedstock procurement has supported the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern, and a short - term internal - external bullish view is taken on domestic FU [4]. - This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis fluctuated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be enlarged on dips, and attention should be paid to quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 17.08, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 15.75, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.03, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 30.16, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 14.41, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.84, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.33 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 8.74, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 8.74, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 7.92, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.85, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.24, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 13.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 2.30, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 0.90, the 380 basis decreased by 0.40 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, FU 01 increased by 1, FU 05 decreased by 3, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, LU 01 increased by 5, LU 05 decreased by 17, LU 09 decreased by 10, LU 01 - 05 increased by 22, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 15 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Grasberg's unexpected production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the copper's medium - term allocation value is still optimistic [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and it's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices oscillated this week, with a short - term unilateral weak oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see, and partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak, and there is a certain motivation for price support on the policy side [3][4][5] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. Short - term observation is recommended, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated this week. After the hype of supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbances [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident postponed Grasberg's复产, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase next year without the复产 of the Panama mine [1] - Fund long positions are increasing, and the copper's allocation enthusiasm is expected to rise. It's advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and downstream start - up improved. There was a slight destocking in September, and a seasonal slight inventory build - up is expected in October [1] - It's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to long - short spreads and cross - market arbitrage [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreased further, and imported TC increased further. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2] - The smelting end will repair slightly in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge [2] - The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it's recommended to wait and see. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, steel mills are expected to resume production slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the policy side has a certain price - support motivation [3] - For stainless steel, the situation is similar to nickel, with weak fundamentals and policy - side price - support motivation [3][4][5] Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply is affected by low scrap volume, tight waste batteries, and low smelting profits [7] - Demand improved slightly due to National Day stocking, but the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the overall destocking strength needs verification [7] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] Tin - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. The supply side is undergoing marginal repair, and the demand side is mainly rigid - supported [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term supply - demand dual - weak. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. The supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices oscillated. The raw material side has strong price - support willingness, and the lithium salt side's pre - holiday stocking is almost over [11] - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with a surplus in static supply - demand. After the supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract fluctuated upwards, mainly following the rise in oil prices [1]. - In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm; East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall [1]. - For the external market, although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectation of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be generally weak with fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Monday, the low price in East China was 4363 yuan/ton (-30), Shandong was 4570 yuan/ton (-10), and South China was 4640 yuan/ton (-10). Ether - after carbon four was 4570 yuan/ton (-50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 70 (-33), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1]. - FEI monthly spread dropped 1.5 to -10 US dollars, CP monthly spread dropped 1 to -14 US dollars. FEI and CP c1 decreased, reaching 541 (-7) and 540 (-5) US dollars respectively (as of 9:50 am) [1]. - The daily changes in prices showed that South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis had changes of -10, -30, -10, -1, -11, -1, -1, -50, -60, 6, -33 respectively [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 yuan/ton (-42), Shandong at 4570 yuan/ton (+40), and South China at 4640 yuan/ton (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 month spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 79 (+19) [1]. - There were 14327 lots of warehouse receipts (+1353), with Yunda +2031 and Donghua -670. The external market prices were divergent. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (-4), the CP monthly spread was -13.5 US dollars (-2.5). The internal - external price differences PG - CP reached 56.7 (-23.3); PG - FEI reached 55.7 (-18). FEI - CP was 1 (-5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The AFEI discount was -13 (-3), and the CP South China arrival discount was 41 (-4) [1]. - Freight rates decreased slightly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 148 (-3) and the Middle East - Far East at 75 (-2). The FEI - MOPJ spread significantly widened to -57.5 (-18.5) [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), with Quanzhou Guoheng and Zhongjing increasing their loads, and Zhenhua starting production at the end of the week; it is expected to rise next week [1]. - Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased; propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished inventory; factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [1].