铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5180 | -40 | -20 | 5480 | 主力合约 | 5500 | -50 | -42 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 0 | 0 | 5600 | 01合约 | 5500 | -50 | -42 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5220 | -30 | 20 | 5550 | 05合约 | 5566 | -82 | -46 | | | 陕西#72 | 5170 | -30 | 20 | 5470 | 09合约 | 5674 | -58 | -6 | | | 陕西#75 | 5750 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | -20 | 10 | 22 | | 硅铁合格块 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. With subsequent price increases and the signing of long - term agreements from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, waiting for a possible decline in November (if the expected decline in the second half of November fails to materialize and causes the market to fall back) [2][13] - The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month [2][13] - The 04 contract is a off - season contract, which fluctuates within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic. Given the greater supply pressure next year, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies [2][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1843.8, down 1.45%, with a basis of - 531.1. Yesterday's trading volume was 17,598, and the open interest decreased by 1,792 to 30,114 [2][13] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1583.0, down 1.43%, with a basis of - 270.3. Yesterday's trading volume was 4,555, and the open interest increased by 343 to 16,233 [2][13] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1175.9, down 1.55%, with a basis of 136.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 1,891 [2][13] - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1403.3, down 1.38%, with a basis of - 90.6. Yesterday's trading volume was 96, and the open interest was 1,411 [2][13] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1487.5, down 2.22%, with a basis of - 174.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 119, and the open interest increased by 24 to 1,324 [2][13] - FC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1132.5, down 0.63%, with a basis of 180.2. Yesterday's trading volume was 388, and the open interest increased by 150 to 1,062 [2][13] Month - spread Information - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 667.9, a decrease of 8.7 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was 260.8, a decrease of 4.2 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 407.1, a decrease of 4.5 compared to the previous day [2][13] Index Information - "ટેવાન ટિ": Updated every Monday, announced on October 27, 2025. The current value is 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period and 10.52% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from the period before the previous one [2][13] Market Analysis - On Wednesday, the market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, and the PA alliance led the price reduction [2][13] - In the second half of November, affected by the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships may not be able to return to Shanghai Port in time, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation in November. It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocations [2][13] - The market's neutral expectation for the freight rate in November is 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2][13] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early November (Week 45) [2][13] - In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars [2][13] - In November, shipping companies have announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the market. MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies lowered the prices to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [2][13] News on Price Changes - On Monday, HMM reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HPL to 2335 US dollars, ONE to 2135 US dollars, and MSC to 265 US dollars [2][13] - On Tuesday, MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars, OOCL to 2150 US dollars, and YML reduced the price of a single route to 1900 US dollars [2][13] - On Wednesday, MSK announced a peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU for long - term agreements. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [2][13] - On Thursday, ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the prices of other routes were 2200 - 2300 US dollars [2][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No explicit core viewpoint presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers the latest data on the basis of various futures products as of October 30, 2025, including spot prices, price changes, basis, corresponding contracts, and basis deviation degrees. 3. Summary by Category Macro - On October 30, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4710, down 38, with a basis of 20 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.51 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3047, down 16, with a basis of 2 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.17 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7386, down 95, with a basis of 87 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.75 [2] Black - In Shanghai on October 30, 2025, the spot price of rebar was 3230, down 10, with a basis of 124 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.48 [3] - In Beijing, the spot price of rebar was 3270, down 10, with a basis of 164 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.39 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was 3330, unchanged, with a basis of 12 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.10 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of ore was 848, down 5, with a basis of 46 and a basis deviation of 0.35 [3] - At Tianjin Port, the spot price of coke was 1710, unchanged, with a basis of - 77 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.50 [3] - For port warehouse receipts, the spot price of coking coal was 1662, up 34, with a basis of 374 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.82 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price of steam coal was 766, unchanged, with a basis of - 35 for the 2511 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.17 [3] - For low - priced glass in Shahe, the spot price was 1113, unchanged, with a basis of 22 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.26 [3] - For low - priced glass in Hubei, the spot price was 1040, unchanged, with a basis of - 51 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.08 [3] - In Yinchuan, the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5620, up 50, with a basis of - 50 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.46 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, the spot price of silicomanganese was 6080, up 30, with a basis of 138 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.46 [3] Energy and Chemicals - For port methanol on October 30, 2025, the spot price was 2158, unchanged, with a basis of - 50 and a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3] - In Henan, the spot price of methanol was 2290, unchanged, with a basis of 82 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.47 [3] - In southern Shandong, the spot price of methanol was 2455, unchanged, with a basis of 247 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.79 [3] - In Hebei, the spot price of methanol was 2600, unchanged, with a basis of 392 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.88 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PTA was 4498, down 60, with a basis of - 72 and a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PP was 6540, down 30, with a basis of - 111 and a basis deviation of - 0.87 [3] - In North China, the spot price of LLDPE was 6870, down 20, with a basis of - 98 and a basis deviation of - 0.58 [3] - For high - end PVC, the spot price was 4715, up 55, with a basis of - 90 and a basis deviation of 0.62 [3] - For low - end PVC, the spot price was 4645, up 65, with a basis of - 160 and a basis deviation of 0.72 [3] - In East China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500, unchanged, with a basis of 226 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.33 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of asphalt was 3270, down 10, with a basis of 96 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.00 [3] - In South China, the spot price of asphalt was 3520, unchanged, with a basis of 266 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.68 [3] - For domestic ethylene glycol, the spot price was 4112, down 59, with a basis of 80 and a basis deviation of 0.75 [3] - The spot price of soda ash was 1150, down 30, with a basis of - 85 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.62 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of pulp was 4990, up 5, with a basis of - 234 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.87 [3] - In East China, the spot price of staple fiber was 6230, up 5, with a basis of 26 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.36 [3] - The spot price of urea was 1520, unchanged, with a basis of - 107 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.83 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of natural rubber was 14900, down 80, with a basis of - 500 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.46 [3] - For whole latex, the spot price of natural rubber was 14700, down 225, with a basis of - 700 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.54 [3] - In Qingdao, the spot price of 20 - number rubber was 1845, down 20, with a basis of 594 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.92 [3] - The spot price of styrene was 6395, down 80, with a basis of - 26 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.97 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 30, 2025, the spot price of copper was 88050, up 280, with a basis of - 55 and a basis deviation of - 0.62 [4] - The spot price of international copper was 78450, up 385, with a basis of 120 for the 2511 contract and a basis deviation of 0.82 [4] - The spot price of aluminum was 21200, up 30, with a basis of - 10 and a basis deviation of 0.12 [4] - The spot price of zinc was 22250, down 40, with a basis of - 40 and a basis deviation of - 0.58 [4] - The spot price of lead was 17200, unchanged, with a basis of - 210 and a basis deviation of - 0.40 [4] - The spot price of nickel was 121450, up 250, with a basis of 400 and a basis deviation of 0.74 [4] - The spot price of tin was 284000, down 1200, with a basis of 400 and a basis deviation of 0.26 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu on October 30, 2025, the spot price of 43% soybean meal was 2940, up 10, with a basis of - 54 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.22 [5] - In Jiangsu, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8400, up 60, with a basis of 232 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.15 [5] - For the average price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong, the spot price was 2530, up 30, with a basis of 129 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.88 [5] - For the market average price of rapeseed oil, the spot price was 10053, unchanged, with a basis of 524 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.98 [5] - In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 8690, unchanged, with a basis of - 138 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.97 [5] - Nationwide, the spot price of cotton was 14545, up 10, with a basis of 945 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.41 [5] - In Guangxi, the spot price of white sugar was 5750, unchanged, with a basis of 278 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.09 [5] - In Yunnan, the spot price of white sugar was 5820, unchanged, with a basis of 348 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.45 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2960, unchanged, with a basis of - 197 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.58 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2890, unchanged, with a basis of - 267 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.61 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2650, unchanged, with a basis of - 507 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.76 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2700, unchanged, with a basis of - 457 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.78 [5] - In Bei'an, the spot price of soybeans was 4060, unchanged, with a basis of - 43 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.78 [5] - In Jiamusi, the spot price of soybeans was 4140, unchanged, with a basis of 37 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.43 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of corn was 2240, unchanged, with a basis of 129 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.62 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of corn was 2350, unchanged, with a basis of 239 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.55 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of starch was 2580, unchanged, with a basis of 131 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.41 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of starch was 2605, unchanged, with a basis of 176 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.62 [5] - In Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price of live pigs was 12560, down 50, with a basis of 680 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.27 [5] - In Hebei, the spot price of red dates was 9500, down 100, with a basis of - 725 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.10 [5] - In Shandong, the spot price of apples was 7400, unchanged, with a basis of - 1868 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.79 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Wednesday market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods, leading to price cuts. In the second half of November, due to the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships might cause the overall fundamentals to be tight in November. The market has a neutral expectation that the freight rate in November may reach 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocation. Also, observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2]. - Currently, the valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. Driven by multiple factors such as upcoming price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips (waiting for a possible market decline in the second half of November). The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty, and it is expected to follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month. The 04 contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies under the greater supply pressure next year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on the previous day were 1843.8, 1583.0, 1175.9, 1403.3, 1487.5, and 1132.5 respectively, with changes of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.59%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on the previous day were 17598, 4555, 1891, 96, 119, and 388 respectively. The open interests were 30114, 16233, 14460, 1411, 1324, and 1062 respectively, with changes of - 17, 348, 0, 1, 24, and 150 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 667.9, 260.8, and 407.1 respectively, with changes of - 8.7, - 4.2, and - 4.5 compared to the previous day [2]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: The latest value on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71 points, with a month - on - month increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: On October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, compared to 1145 in the previous period and 1068 two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: On October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12 points, with a month - on - month increase of 1.99% and a decrease of 1.49% in the previous period [2]. - **NCFI**: On October 24, 2025, it was 822.3 points, with a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a 14.96% increase in the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 44 Quotations**: The offline quotations of PA, GEMINI, and OA were 1400, 1600, and 1800 US dollars respectively [4]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations, and then shipping companies reduced the price to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [4]. Shipping Company Price Adjustment Information - **Wednesday**: MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars and announced a long - term contract peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [8]. - **Thursday**: ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the rest were in the range of 2200 - 2300 US dollars [8]. News - On October 30, the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate President Trump's global comprehensive tariff policy with 51 votes in favor and 47 against [6]. - On October 30, the Israeli military said it had carried out air strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese president ordered the military to respond to Israeli incursions [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price Changes (Oct 24 - Oct 30)**: WTI increased by $0.09, BRENT by $0.08, OMAN by $2.56, and SC decreased by $3.70. Other products also showed various price changes [3] - **Differences**: WTI - BRENT was around -$4.4, and other spreads like DUBAI - BRT also had specific values and changes [3] Domestic Products - **Prices and Changes**: Domestic gasoline remained at 7420 (unchanged from Oct 24 - Oct 30), and domestic diesel had related price - BRT spreads and changes [3] Other Products - **Prices and Changes**: Japan naphtha - BRT had a change of 0.91, and Singapore fuel oil and other products also had price and spread changes [3] Group 3: Daily News Russia's Fuel Exports - Russia's refined oil exports dropped to the lowest level since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The daily average export volume of seaborne petroleum products in the first 26 days of October was 1.89 million barrels. Sanctions, attacks, and bad weather affected exports [5] Saudi's Fiscal Situation - Saudi's Q3 fiscal deficit widened to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.6 billion), a 160% increase from the previous quarter. Oil revenue decreased by 0.1%, and total revenue dropped by about 13% year - on - year [5] Market Perception of Russia Sanctions - TotalEnergies' CEO said the oil market underestimated the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, and the sanctions were already affecting oil flows [6] Hungary's Request for Sanction Exemption - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban hopes to get an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil through a meeting with Trump [6] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US Data (Oct 24 Week) - Crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels/day to 4.361 million barrels/day, domestic production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels/day, and commercial crude inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels (1.62%) [7] - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels (0.13%), and commercial crude imports decreased by 867,000 barrels/day [7] China's Situation (Oct 16 - Oct 23 Week) - Main refinery and Shandong local refinery operating rates declined. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory decreased. Main refinery comprehensive profit declined, and local refinery comprehensive profit decreased month - on - month [7] Group 5: Weekly View Price Movement - Oil prices rebounded significantly this week, with Brent oil closing above $65 [7] Supply Impact - US sanctions on Russian oil producers may lead to a near - zero supply of Russian oil to India in the short term. India has increased purchases of Middle Eastern crude since September, supporting the Dubai market [7] Geopolitical and Fundamental Factors - US military strikes on Venezuela's transportation raised geopolitical concerns. EIA crude inventory decreased, US refinery operations rebounded, and the US Energy Department planned to buy 1 million barrels of crude for the SPR [7] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices may rebound with increased volatility. Mid - term upside is limited due to OPEC's potential increase in production, and the oversupply situation will continue in the fourth quarter [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price Changes - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices**: The price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1,575.00, unchanged daily and weekly, up 72.00 monthly, and up 5.00% annually; the price of Raw Coal Port Pick-up is 1,170.00, up 30.00 daily, 43.00 weekly, 120.00 monthly, and up 0.86% annually; the price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1,470.00, unchanged daily and weekly, up 80.00 monthly, and down 12.50% annually; the price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1,600.00, unchanged daily and weekly, up 10.00 monthly, and down 5.88% annually [2]. - **International Coking Coal Prices**: The price of Peak Downs is 211.50, unchanged daily, up 2.40 weekly, up 6.50 monthly, and down 3.90% annually; the price of Goonyella is 211.50, unchanged daily, up 2.40 weekly, up 6.50 monthly, and down 3.90% annually [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Futures 05 is 1,369.00, up 28.50 daily, 51.50 weekly, 53.00 monthly, and down 6.04% annually; the price of Futures 09 is 1,439.00, up 21.50 daily, 52.00 weekly, 53.00 monthly, and down 3.13% annually; the price of Futures 01 is 1,298.00, up 30.50 daily, 46.50 weekly, 75.50 monthly, and down 6.01% annually [2]. Inventory Changes - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory is 3,306.84, down 4.44 weekly, 81.22 monthly, and 13.72% annually [2]. - **Coal Mine Inventory**: The coal mine inventory is 164.53, down 25.01 weekly, 27.01 monthly, and 40.57% annually [2]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory is 275.65, up 2.94 weekly, 10.16 monthly, and down 33.84% annually [2]. - **Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory**: The steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.96, down 5.36 weekly, 13.11 monthly, and up 6.16% annually [2]. - **Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1,029.70, up 32.33 weekly, 30.63 monthly, and 11.53% annually [2]. Other Indicators - **Coking Capacity Utilization Rate**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.44, down 0.03 weekly, 1.69 monthly, and 0.33% annually [2]. - **Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: The coking plant coke inventory is 85.21, up 0.18 weekly, down 0.61 monthly, and 1.58% annually [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is -57.74, down 21.60 daily, up 41.60 weekly, 65.39 monthly, and 22.48% annually; the 09 basis is -127.74, down 14.60 daily, up 41.10 weekly, 65.39 monthly, and 0.17% annually; the 01 basis is 13.26, down 23.60 daily, up 46.60 weekly, 42.89 monthly, and down 4.14% annually; the 5 - 9 spread is -70.00, up 7.00 daily, down 0.50 weekly, unchanged monthly, and up 1.46% annually; the 9 - 1 spread is 141.00, down 9.00 daily, up 5.50 weekly, down 22.50 monthly, and 0.35% annually; the 1 - 5 spread is -71.00, up 2.00 daily, down 5.00 weekly, up 22.50 monthly, and down 0.07% annually [2].

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3994.15, 48.18, 1604.00, 1421.00, 60.57, and 11042.00 respectively, with changes of -12.55, 0.00, 13.00, 28.00, 0.09, and -73.00 [1] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.15, 1.16, 1.32, 152.74, and 1.78 respectively, with no changes [1] Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15027.13, with a change of -76.32; the latest SHFE silver inventory is 662.84, with a change of 9.01; the latest gold ETF持仓 is 1040.35, with a change of 4.30; the latest silver ETF持仓 is 15189.82, with a change of -19.75; the latest SGE silver inventory is 1108.07, with no change; the latest SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1, with a change of -1.00; the latest SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 2, with no change [1] Other Information - The data sources for the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, maintain a buy - on - pullback strategy due to continued tightness in the ore end and growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Consider selling put options below $10,300 on LME copper or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and long - term holding on dips is recommended while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, in the face of increased macro uncertainty, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For internal - external spreads, gradually take profits on internal - external positive spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For monthly spreads, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainty and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly between 17,300 and 17,700 next week. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled production and the increase in warehouse receipts before operating cautiously [6]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [13][15]. - For lithium carbonate, no specific investment strategy is given in the report. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is dominated by tariff negotiation progress and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are still supply disturbances in scrap copper in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. - Overseas, the export window has opened, but no inventory delivery has been observed. The divergence between the start - up rates of copper and aluminum cables is obvious, and attention should be paid to whether the start - up rate stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars, but the post - holiday inventory reduction is considerable, and the apparent demand is rising [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthening. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production due to equipment failures [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. Domestic mines will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. In October, smelting has slightly recovered, and attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and European demand is average. Some overseas smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory is oscillating, and overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level. - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Steel mills' production schedules in October have increased slightly compared to the previous month. - Demand: Demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. - Cost: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. - Inventory: Inventory remains at a high level, and warehouse receipts are stable [3]. Lead - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits has encouraged resumption of production, but the progress is slow. There is a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the spot premium in Hunan has been rising [6]. - Demand: The battery start - up rate has increased this week, and the expectation of weakening demand has been reversed. The refined - scrap spread is - 75, and the lead ingot spot premium is 15 [6]. - Inventory: The five - region social inventory is at a historical low of 31,900 tons, and the spot tightness has not eased [6]. Tin - Supply: The processing fee at the mine end is at a low level. The output of overseas Wa State is still controversial, and some mines and smelters in Indonesia have shut down [10]. - Demand: Demand is mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the downstream's psychological price for orders has increased [10]. - Inventory: Overseas LME inventory is oscillating and recovering at a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable. The number of start - ups in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season, and the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month [13][15]. - Demand: Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [13][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate have both increased by 850 yuan. The basis of the main and near - month contracts has changed, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 116 [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - The price of Hebei quasi - dry quenching coke is 1790.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10% [2] - The price of Shandong quasi - dry quenching coke is 1715.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 16.95% [2] - The price of Jiangsu quasi - dry quenching coke is 1755.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 16.63% [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia secondary coke is 1230.00, with a weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 150.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.13% [2] Production and Utilization - The blast furnace operating rate is 89.94, with a weekly decrease of 0.39, a monthly decrease of 0.92, and a year - on - year increase of 2.22% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 236.36, with a weekly decrease of 3.54, a monthly decrease of 5.45, and a year - on - year increase of 0.38% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.16, with a weekly decrease of 0.83, a monthly decrease of 2.15, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.54% [2] - The daily average coke output is 53.30, with a weekly increase of 2.09, a monthly increase of 1.01, and a year - on - year increase of 4.88% [2] Inventory Information - The coking plant inventory is 37.52, with a weekly increase of 0.03, a monthly decrease of 1.49, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.88% [2] - The port inventory is 211.10, with a weekly increase of 11.01, a monthly increase of 17.01, and a year - on - year increase of 18.50% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 629.05, with a weekly decrease of 4.11, a monthly decrease of 34.35, and a year - on - year increase of 8.68% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.57, with a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly decrease of 0.03, and a year - on - year increase of 4.42% [2] Futures Information - The price of futures contract 05 is 1938.5, with a daily increase of 23.50, a weekly increase of 43.50, a monthly increase of 91.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.42% [2] - The price of futures contract 09 is 2027.5, with a daily increase of 15.50, a weekly increase of 54.00, a monthly increase of 94.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.36% [2] - The price of futures contract 01 is 1797, with a daily increase of 21.00, a weekly increase of 31.50, a monthly increase of 86.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.53% [2] - The 05 basis is - 108.39, with a daily decrease of 23.50, a weekly increase of 15.22, a monthly increase of 9.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 173.98 [2] - The 09 basis is - 197.39, with a daily decrease of 15.50, a weekly increase of 4.72, a monthly increase of 7.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 214.48 [2] - The 01 basis is 33.11, with a daily decrease of 21.00, a weekly increase of 27.22, a monthly increase of 14.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 117.98 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 141.50, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly decrease of 12.00, a monthly decrease of 5.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 56.00 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 89.00, with a daily increase of 8.00, a weekly decrease of 10.50, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 40.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 230.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly increase of 22.50, a monthly increase of 7.50, and a year - on - year increase of 96.50 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 31, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5220 and 5250 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and 50, and weekly changes of 40 and 50. The latest prices of the main contracts (01 contracts) were 5550, with daily and weekly changes of -44 and -24 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy were 1055 and 1105 US dollars respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2]. - For silicon manganese, on October 31, 2025, the factory - ex - works prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5680, 5600, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes [2]. Supply - The report shows the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][5]. - It also presents the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Demand - It shows the estimated and actual production volumes of crude steel in China (monthly), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly), and the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 [5][8]. - The procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 are also provided [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (weekly), the inventory of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), and the inventory of silicon ferroalloy in CZCE (daily) from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory data such as the total number of warehouse receipts in CZCE (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [8]. Cost and Profit - The report includes the electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia (daily), the market price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi (daily), and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [6]. - For silicon manganese, the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (according to Steel Union's data), and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract price from 2021 - 2025 are provided [8].