Yong An Qi Huo
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大类资产早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:27
Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.150%, UK 4.415%, France 3.521%, Germany 2.849%, Italy 3.514%, Spain 3.251%, Switzerland 0.241%, Greece 3.379%, Japan 2.116%, Brazil 6.234%, China 1.892%, Australia 4.758%, New Zealand 4.492% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.472%, UK 3.673%, Germany 2.088%, Japan 1.162%, Italy 2.200%, China (1Y yield) 1.339%, Australia 4.078% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil (latest 5.389), Russia (-), South Africa zar 16.453, Korean won 1448.250, Thai baht 31.280, Malaysian ringgit 4.058 [3] - The latest exchange rates related to the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.992, off - shore RMB 6.994, RMB mid - price 7.019, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.871 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6920.930, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48996.080, Nasdaq 23584.280, Mexican stock index 64871.700, UK stock index 10048.210, France CAC 8233.920, Germany DAX 25122.260, Spanish stock index 17596.400, Russian stock index (-), Nikkei 51961.980, Hang Seng Index 26458.950, Shanghai Composite Index 4085.772, Taiwan stock index 30435.470, Korean stock index 4551.060, Indian stock index 8944.813, Thai stock index 1280.820, Malaysian stock index 1676.830, Australian stock index 9017.996, emerging - economy stock index 1462.970 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3549.910, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.569, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.690, US high - yield credit - bond index 2923.370, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 411.980, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1826.798 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - shares' closing price is 4085.77 with a 0.05% change; CSI 300's closing price is 4776.67 with a - 0.29% change; SSE 50's closing price is 3145.12 with a - 0.43% change; ChiNext's closing price is 3329.69 with a 0.31% change; CSI 500's closing price is 7875.08 with a 0.78% change [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.44 with a - 0.08 change; SSE 50 is 12.05 with a - 0.08 change; CSI 500 is 35.66 with a 0.28 change; S&P 500 is 27.64 with a - 0.10 change; Germany DAX is 19.49 with a 0.18 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.53 with a 0.04 change; Germany DAX is 2.28 with a - 0.06 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - shares' fund flow is - 1026.33, the main board is - 902.23, the ChiNext is - 175.31, and the CSI 300 is - 368.61. The 5 - day average of A - shares is - 99.55, the main board is - 174.28, the ChiNext is 38.66, and the CSI 300 is 60.80 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 28541.41 with a 476.34 change; CSI 300 is 6648.98 with a - 605.17 change; SSE 50 is 1693.07 with a - 107.41 change; small - and - medium - sized board is 6082.81 with a 347.24 change; ChiNext is 7569.99 with a 4.70 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF's basis is - 23.67 with a - 0.50% spread; IH's basis is - 1.32 with a - 0.04% spread; IC's basis is - 72.48 with a - 0.92% spread [5] - Treasury futures: T2303's closing price is 107.61 with a - 0.08% change; TF2303 is 105.50 with a - 0.07% change; T2306 is 107.56 with a - 0.09% change; TF2306 is 105.49 with a - 0.08% change [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3365% with a - 15.00 BP change; R007 is 1.5323% with a 4.00 BP change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5970% with a 0.00 BP change [5]
合成橡胶早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:27
1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: January 8, 2026 [3] 2. Core Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - Futures Data - Closing price of the BR main contract on January 7 was 12,155, with a daily increase of 325 and a weekly increase of 635 [4] - Open interest on January 7 was 33,982, a daily decrease of 3,311 and a weekly decrease of 7,279 [4] - Trading volume on January 7 was 138,247, a daily increase of 12,378 and a weekly increase of 40,566 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 7 was 24,360, a daily increase of 1,200 and a weekly increase of 870 [4] - Long - short ratio on January 7 was 6.97, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 2 [4] - Basis and Spread Data - Butadiene - styrene basis on January 7 was - 205, a daily decrease of 275 and a weekly decrease of 335 [4] - BR 02 - 03 spread on January 7 was - 30, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - BR 03 - 04 spread on January 7 was - 25, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] - RU - BR spread on January 7 was 4,025, a daily decrease of 195 and a weekly decrease of 60 [4] - NR - BR spread on January 7 was 1,180, a daily decrease of 185 and a weekly decrease of 110 [4] - Spot and Price Data - Shandong market price on January 7 was 11,800, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] - Chuanhua market price on January 7 was 11,750, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 7 was 11,900, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 400 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,415 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1,635 [4] - Profit Data - Spot processing profit on January 7 was 114, a daily decrease of 103 and a weekly decrease of 409 [4] - Import profit on January 7 was 134, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 308 [4] - Export profit on January 7 was 513, a daily decrease of 43 and a weekly decrease of 269 [4] 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - Spot Price Data - Shandong market price on January 7 was 9,300, a daily increase of 150 [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 7 was 9,200, a daily increase of 200 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 7 was 9,100, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 700 [4] - CFR China price on January 7 was 975, a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 20 [4] - Profit Data - Ethylene cracking profit data on January 7 was N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit data on January 7 was N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 7 was 470, a daily increase of 270 and a weekly increase of 800 [4] - Import profit on January 7 was 1,277, a daily increase of 121 and a weekly increase of 648 [4] - Export profit on January 7 was - 2,008, a daily decrease of 174 and a weekly decrease of 2 [4] 2.3 Production Profit of Related Products - Butadiene - styrene production profit on January 7 was 913, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 125 [4] - ABS production profit data on January 7 was N/A [4] - SBS production profit on January 7 was - 362, a daily decrease of 140 and a weekly increase of 510 [4] 3. Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and Wind [8]
废钢早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:27
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, along with the week - on - week changes [2] 3) Summary by Related Content - **Scrap Steel Price Data**: - The scrap steel prices in East China were 2164 on December 30, 2025, 2162 on December 31, 2025, 2161 on January 5, 2026, 2161 on January 6, 2026, and 2163 on January 7, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 2 [2] - In North China, the prices were 2251 on December 30 and 31, 2025, 2257 on January 5, 2026, 2255 on January 6, 2026, and 2254 on January 7, 2026, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 [2] - For Central China, the prices were 2034 on December 30 and 31, 2025, 2035 on January 5, 2026, 2036 on January 6 and 7, 2026, with a week - on - week change of 0 [2] - In South China, the prices were 2226 on December 30, 2025, 2227 on December 31, 2025, 2230 on January 5, 2026, 2231 on January 6, 2026, and 2233 on January 7, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 2 [2] - In Northeast China, the prices remained at 2213 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, with a week - on - week change of 0 [2] - In Southwest China, the prices were 2091 from December 30, 2025, to January 5, 2026, 2093 on January 6, 2026, and 2096 on January 7, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 3 [2]
动力煤早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:21
最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 697.0 3.0 11.0 -83.0 -73.0 25省终端可用天数 20.4 0.5 0.5 -0.5 2.8 秦皇岛5000 607.0 4.0 20.0 -72.0 -63.0 25省终端供煤 559.6 -8.4 -48.9 -80.4 -63.2 广州港5500 810.0 0.0 0.0 -40.0 -60.0 北方港库存 2539.0 2.0 -141.0 -196.0 262.6 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 5.0 5.0 -55.0 -60.0 北方锚地船舶 73.0 3.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 大同5500 555.0 5.0 5.0 -50.0 -75.0 北方港调入量 122.1 -9.7 -4.8 -19.0 -9.8 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -42.0 -67.0 北方港吞吐量 134.8 -5.0 6.9 9.8 4.0 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -40.0 CBCFI海运指数 617.4 -11.0 2.5 -20.7 13.6 ...
农产品早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:18
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Corn prices may rise again after New Year's Day as downstream enters seasonal restocking, and long - term focus is on import and domestic auction policies [3] - Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the future, and long - term focus is on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Short - term sugar pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, and long - term may seek out - of - quota import cost if the global sugar market surplus intensifies [4] - Cotton demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term buying [5] - Egg prices in the second quarter may be favorable if there is a concentrated culling of chickens before Laba [8] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level shock in the short term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium term [14] - For pigs, there may be a short - term weakening of sentiment, and long - term improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction at the near end [14] Group 3: Corn/Starch Key Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, the price in Shekou decreased by 10, the basis decreased by 26, and the processing profit of starch increased by 8 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak due to policy, but origin prices are firm. After New Year's Day, downstream restocking may drive prices up [3] - Long - term: Focus on import and domestic auction policies [3] Group 4: Sugar Key Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, the price in Liuzhou increased by 10, the basis decreased by 12, and the import profit from Thailand decreased by 58 [4] Market Analysis - Short - term: Supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and pricing can refer to domestic cost and spot price [4] - Long - term: If the global surplus intensifies, prices may seek out - of - quota import cost [4] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Key Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 160, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 7 [5] Market Analysis - Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. Demand is expected to improve next year [5] Group 6: Eggs Key Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, the price in Hebei increased by 0.09, and the basis increased by 45 [7] Market Analysis - The inflection point of inventory has appeared. If there is concentrated culling before Laba, it is favorable for egg prices in the second quarter [8] Group 7: Apples Key Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, the 1 - month basis changed by 1.00, the 5 - month basis changed by 31.00, and the 10 - month basis changed by 57.00 [13][14] Market Analysis - Short - term: The price is firm, and the price is expected to maintain high - level shock [14] - Medium - term: Subject to the impact of competing products in the consumption end, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern [14] Group 8: Pigs Key Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.05, and the basis increased by 75 [14] Market Analysis - Short - term: Demand decreases after the New Year's Day holiday, and sentiment weakens [14] - Long - term: Improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction at the near end [14]
LPG早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market showed mixed trends this week. The internal market fluctuated, with prices rising on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then falling back. The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected. Overall, the Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and disturb LPG prices. The overseas LPG market has near - term support. The internal valuation is high relative to the external, but the basis is low. The feedback of strong spot but poor PDH profits may emerge, and subsequent drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] Summary by Directory Daily Situation - On Wednesday, the LPG futures market remained strong, possibly due to the rising prices of the LPG external market and downstream products. The 02 - 03 spread was 83 (-11), and the 03 - 04 spread was -165 (+20). As of 8 pm, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 513.25 and 524.25 US dollars respectively, down 3.5 and 1.5 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] Weekly Situation - This week, the internal market fluctuated. On Wednesday, it soared after the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). Domestic civil gas prices were divided. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); prices in East China were 4376 (-8), and in South China were 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal and external prices strengthened mainly because the external market fell on Friday while the internal market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival - at - shore premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the 1 - month FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]
纸浆早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:48
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the report. 3) Content Summaries SP Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 6, 2026, was 5612.00, up 1.48282% from the previous day [2]. - The converted US dollar price on January 6, 2026, was 702.51 [2]. - The basis of Shandong Yinxing on January 6, 2026, was -22, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was also -22 [2]. Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 77.83, while that of Canadian Lion was -262.80, and that of Chilean Silver Star was -1.18 [3]. Price Averages - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong [3]. - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and the living paper index remained mostly unchanged during this period, except for a slight change in the living paper index [3]. Profit Margins - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper changed from December 30, 2025, to January 6, 2026. The changes were -0.3850, -0.3333, -0.2309, and -0.4167 respectively [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural, softwood and chemimechanical, and softwood and waste paper showed some fluctuations from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [3].
焦煤日报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:11
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily [1] - Research Team: Black Team of Research Center [1] - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1403.00 with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 47.00, a monthly decrease of 102.00, and an annual increase of 0.21%; the latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 953.00, a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 17.00, and an annual increase of 2.47%; the latest price of Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5 is 1340.00 with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 80.00, and an annual decrease of 4.29%; the latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1500.00 with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 100.00, no monthly change, and an annual increase of 5.63% [2]. - **Foreign Coking Coal**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 228.50 with no daily change, a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly increase of 6.50, and an annual increase of 22.50; the latest price of Goonyella is 229.50 with no daily change, a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly increase of 8.50, and an annual increase of 18.50 [2]. - **Futures Market**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1078.00, a daily decrease of 19.00, a weekly decrease of 30.50, a monthly decrease of 87.00, and an annual decrease of 6.46%; the latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1154.50, a daily decrease of 19.00, a weekly decrease of 33.50, a monthly decrease of 71.50, and an annual decrease of 5.64%; the latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1056.00, a daily decrease of 25.00, a weekly increase of 40.00, a monthly decrease of 23.50, and an annual decrease of 1.08% [2]. Group 3: Inventory Information - The total inventory is 4058.33, with a weekly increase of 46.93, a monthly increase of 255.41, and an annual decrease of 14.27% [2]. - The coal mine inventory is 293.34, with a weekly increase of 10.44, a monthly increase of 46.33, and an annual decrease of 20.60% [2]. - The port inventory is 299.50, with a weekly increase of 13.33, a monthly increase of 5.00, and an annual decrease of 38.74% [2]. - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 806.72, with a weekly increase of 1.73, a monthly increase of 5.42, and an annual increase of 4.00% [2]. - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1039.72, with a weekly increase of 3.43, a monthly increase of 29.42, and an annual decrease of 1.41% [2]. Group 4: Other Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.72, with a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly decrease of 2.12, and an annual decrease of 2.09% [2]. - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.58, with a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly decrease of 0.39, and an annual decrease of 0.34% [2]. - The 05 basis is -89.72, a daily increase of 19.00, a weekly increase of 30.50, a monthly increase of 14.59, and an annual increase of 2.09 [2]. - The 09 basis is -166.22, a daily increase of 19.00, a weekly increase of 33.50, a monthly decrease of 0.91, and an annual increase of 0.02 [2]. - The 01 basis is -67.72, a daily increase of 25.00, a weekly decrease of 40.00, a monthly decrease of 48.91, and an annual increase of 8.94 [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread is -76.50 with no daily change, a weekly increase of 3.00, a monthly decrease of 15.50, and an annual increase of 0.08 [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread is 98.50, a daily increase of 6.00, a weekly decrease of 73.50, a monthly decrease of 48.00, and an annual decrease of 0.37 [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread is -22.00, a daily decrease of 6.00, a weekly increase of 70.50, a monthly increase of 63.50, and an annual decrease of 0.74 [2].
原油成品油早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties. Venezuelan sea - area imports and exports are affected by the blockade, and the Iran - Israel situation has also escalated. The short - term price of crude oil may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums, but the upside price elasticity is small. [5] - In the short - term, if Venezuela enters a political transition period, its production may decline, with an extreme reduction of 30 - 50 barrels per day. However, the large surplus of global crude oil in the first quarter means this won't change the overall situation. [5] - In the medium - to - long - term, with a stable political environment, Venezuelan crude oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. Venezuela may become the biggest uncertain supply increase factor from 2026 - 2027. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Price Changes**: From 2025/12/29 to 2026/01/06, WTI decreased by $1.19, BRENT by $1.06, and DUBAI by $1.16. SC increased by 6.50, and OMAN decreased by 1.13. [3] - **Differential Changes**: The differences such as WTI - BRENT, DUBAI - BRT, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, WTI - BRENT decreased by 0.13, and DUBAI - BRT increased by 0.16. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The US has asked Venezuela to cooperate only with the US in oil production and prioritize the US when selling heavy crude oil. [3] - Russia sent submarines to escort an oil tanker that the US tried to seize near Venezuela, and Russia asked the US to stop the pursuit. [4] - Trump said Venezuela's interim management will hand over 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned oil to the US. [4] - Iran's Defense Committee warned that it may launch a preemptive strike if it perceives an imminent threat to its security. [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - In the week of December 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day. [4] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 405,000 barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.1% increase. [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.539 million barrels per day, a 0.75% decrease compared to the same period last year. [6] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 413 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. [6] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.086 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6]
永安期货钢材早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core Viewpoints - Not available 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Profit - The report provides the spot prices of various types of steel, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, with some data on January 6 being missing and some showing no change [1]. Output and Inventory - Not available Basis and Spread - Not available