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废钢早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary According to Related Catalog - The report shows the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from August 20th to August 26th, 2025 [2][9]. - On August 26th, compared with the previous day, the price in East China increased by 2, in North China by 4, in Central China by 6, in South China decreased by 4, in Northeast China increased by 6, and in Southwest China increased by 1 [9].
农产品早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:36
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the market conditions of various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs on August 27, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Market Data - Corn prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and Shekou remained stable from August 20 - 26, while prices in Weifang decreased by 34. Starch prices in Heilongjiang remained stable, and those in Weifang decreased by 50. Corn trade profit decreased, and starch processing profit increased slightly [2] Core View - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Starch prices will fluctuate with raw material prices, and high inventory will continue to pressure the price [3] - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in the production areas. Starch prices are expected to remain bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [3] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, and the price in Kunming increased slightly. The base difference increased, and the import profit decreased slightly. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [5] Core View - Internationally, the peak sugar - pressing season in Brazil is putting pressure on sugar prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and the arrival of imported sugar is putting pressure on the upper limit of the futures price [5] Group 4: Cotton Market Data - The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 1, and the import profit and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased [8] Core View - Cotton prices are in a shock phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the low point in April can be seen as the long - term bottom of cotton prices, and the downside space is limited [8] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - Egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, the base difference increased by 28, the price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.10 [11] Core View - Egg prices rebounded rapidly from the low level due to supply and demand in July, but decreased in early August due to insufficient demand. If the price rebound in late August is less than expected, more old chickens may be culled [11] Group 6: Apples Market Data - The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory increased by 10, and the base differences for January, May, and October contracts changed to varying degrees [15][16] Core View - The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, the inventory is the lowest in the past five years, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the final production determination [16] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - Pig prices in some production areas decreased slightly, and the base difference remained unchanged [16] Core View - There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point in the long - term, but the mid - term supply pressure still exists. There may be a short - term improvement in consumption, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [16]
焦煤日报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:16
Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: August 27, 2025 [1] Price Information - **Coal Prices**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1505.00, with a weekly increase of 52.00 and a monthly increase of 94.00, a yearly increase of 7.50%. The price of Raw Coal at the Port Delivery is 985.00, with a daily increase of 37.00, a weekly increase of 31.00, a monthly increase of 15.00, and a yearly decrease of 15.81%. The price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1380.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 160.00, and a yearly decrease of 17.37%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1470.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 20.00, and a yearly decrease of 13.53% [2]. - **International Coal Prices**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 201.00, with a daily decrease of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 4.50, a monthly increase of 11.00, and a yearly decrease of 13.50%. The price of Goonyella is 203.00, with a daily decrease of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 5.80, a monthly increase of 10.00, and a yearly decrease of 11.50% [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1241.50, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly increase of 42.50, a monthly increase of 60.00, and a yearly decrease of 6.05%. The price of Futures Contract 09 is 1058.00, with a daily decrease of 5.00, a weekly increase of 25.00, a monthly decrease of 29.50, and a yearly decrease of 16.92%. The price of Futures Contract 01 is 1200.50, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly increase of 36.00, a monthly increase of 36.50, and a yearly decrease of 9.57% [2]. Inventory Information - **Total Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 3465.61, with a weekly increase of 45.31, a monthly decrease of 69.02, and a yearly decrease of 9.00% [2]. - **Detailed Inventory**: Coal mine inventory is 275.64, with a weekly increase of 17.97, a monthly decrease of 2.80, and a yearly decrease of 14.55%. Port inventory is 255.49, with a weekly decrease of 21.85, a monthly decrease of 66.01, and a yearly decrease of 25.59%. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 805.80, with a weekly decrease of 2.86, a monthly increase of 14.70, and a yearly increase of 14.08%. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 976.88, with a weekly decrease of 11.04, a monthly increase of 47.77, and a yearly increase of 20.44% [2]. Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.42, with a weekly increase of 0.08, a monthly increase of 0.97, and a yearly increase of 3.16% [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The coking coke inventory is 86.17, with no daily change, a monthly decrease of 0.80, and a yearly decrease of 0.75% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is 11.03, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly decrease of 42.50, a monthly decrease of 15.17, and a yearly decrease of 265.98. The 09 basis is 194.53, with a daily increase of 5.00, a weekly decrease of 25.00, a monthly increase of 74.33, and a yearly decrease of 0.40. The 01 basis is 52.03, with a daily decrease of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 36.00, a monthly increase of 8.33, and a yearly decrease of 0.81. The 5 - 9 spread is 183.50, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly increase of 17.50, a monthly increase of 89.50, and a yearly increase of 2.82. The 9 - 1 spread is -142.50, with a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly decrease of 11.00, a monthly decrease of 66.00, and a yearly increase of 1.64. The 1 - 5 spread is -41.00, with a daily increase of 4.50, a weekly decrease of 6.50, a monthly decrease of 23.50, and a yearly decrease of 7.83% [2].
焦炭日报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:15
Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: August 27, 2025 - Report Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides data on the coke industry, including prices, production, inventory, and related indicators. Summary by Category Coke Prices - The prices of different types of coke in various regions have shown week - on - week and month - on - month changes. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first wet - quenched coke is 1535.94 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 54.61 yuan and a month - on - month increase of 218.45 yuan, but a year - on - year decrease of 8.91%. Other regions like Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia also have similar price trends [2]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The blast furnace operating rate is 90.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 and a year - on - year increase of 5.04%. The daily average iron - water output is 240.75, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 and a year - on - year increase of 7.26%. The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38 and a year - on - year increase of 2.33%. The daily average coke output is 51.63, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 5.20% [2]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory is 39.47, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16 and a year - on - year decrease of 15.82%. Port inventory is 214.62, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 and a year - on - year increase of 12.24%. Steel mill inventory is 609.59, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 and a year - on - year increase of 13.52%. The steel mill inventory days are 10.76, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46% [2]. Futures Market - The prices of different coke futures contracts (05, 09, 01) have changed. For example, the price of the 05 contract is 1806.5, with a daily decrease of 13.00. The basis of different contracts (05, 09, 01) and the spreads between different contracts (5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5) also show various changes [2].
集运早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the end of August and early September (week 35 - 36). The average price for week 35 is $2550 (1800 points), and the current average quote for week 36 is $2300 (1600 points). MSK has relatively less pressure to receive goods due to significant price cuts, but most shipping companies face pressure to receive goods at the end of the month. The overall shipping capacity in September is reduced this week because the FAL8 of the OA Alliance has added a suspension of service in week 37 [2][8]. - The average shipping capacities in September and October 2025 are 300,000 and 320,000 TEUs respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended services, they are 290,000 TEUs each. Overall, the situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation of October is approaching the annual low (1250 - 1300), and the downward space may be limited. Attention can be paid to the long - allocation opportunity of the December contract [2][8]. - On August 26, the two suspended services on the FE3/FE4 routes of the PA Alliance in week 37/38 of September were refilled, resulting in an increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in September to 310,000 TEUs [2][8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the yesterday's closing price was 2136.0, with a change of -145.8 and a position change of -91, and the yesterday's trading volume was 1877 [2][8]. - For EC2510, the yesterday's closing price was 1358.0, with a change of 632.2, a position change of 102, and the yesterday's trading volume was 13515 [2][8]. - For EC2512, the yesterday's closing price was 1696.7, with a change of 293.5, a position change of 220, and the yesterday's trading volume was 7289 [2][8]. - For EC2602, the yesterday's closing price was 1496.9, with a change of 493.3, a position change of 42, and the yesterday's trading volume was 1070 [2][8]. - For EC2604, the yesterday's closing price was 1284.0, with a change of 1.54, a position change of -33, and the yesterday's trading volume was 706.2 [2][8]. - For EC2606, the yesterday's closing price was 857, with a change of 1445.7, a position change of -22, and the yesterday's trading volume was 544.5 [2][8] Freight Index Information - The SCEIS index on August 25, 2025, was 2180.17, with a change of -8.71% compared to the previous period, and a change of -2.47% in the previous period. It is updated every Monday [2][8]. - The SCFI (European line) on August 22, 2025, was 1668 dollars/TEU, with a change of -7.19% compared to the previous period [2][8]. - The CCFI (European line) on August 22, 2025, was 1757.74, with a change of -1.83% compared to the previous period [2][8]. - The NCFI on August 22, 2025, was 1257.71, with a change of -8.83% compared to the previous period and -5.49% in the previous period [2][8] Recent European Line Quotation - Week 35: The average price is $2575 (1770 points). The PA Alliance quotes $2500, MSK starts at $2300 and then rises to $2490, and the OA Alliance quotes $2700 - 2800 [2][8]. - Week 36: The latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2120 to $2420, with an average of $2250 (1550 points). The PA Alliance quotes $2200 - 2300, MSK starts at $2100 and then rises to $2200, and the OA Alliance quotes $2300 - 2400 [2][8] Related News - On August 23, the US President Trump announced a major tariff investigation on furniture imported into the US, which will be completed within the next 50 days. Furniture imported from other countries will be subject to tariffs, and the tax rate is to be determined [2][8]. - On August 26, Trump said that dealing with Netanyahu was quite tricky and expected a good and clear outcome in the next 2 - 3 weeks. The XSI - C index will be announced with a three - day delay [2][8]
铁合金早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on August 27, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural lump is 5350 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the factory - price converted to the futures market is 5650 yuan. The price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5350 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan, and the factory - price converted to the futures market is 5700 yuan. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1055 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 30 US dollars [2]. - For silicon manganese on August 27, 2025, the factory - price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5750 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan, and the factory - price converted to the futures market is 6050 yuan; the price of Ningxia 6517 is 5620 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 210 yuan, and the factory - price converted to the futures market is 6020 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as the demand volume of silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese [4][6][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including weekly inventory in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons, weekly) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit converted to the main futures contract and the spot profit in Ningxia [5]. - The cost and profit data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main futures contract [7].
有色早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:47
Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - Market risk preference remained high this week despite weak domestic economic and financial data in July [1] Group 2: Copper - Downstream orders showed support around 7.8 this week, and the scrap-to-refined substitution effect continued to appear [1] - In August, under the full supply pattern, a small inventory build-up is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight balance pattern after the off-season [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to June, with aluminum ingot imports contributing to the growth [2] - August demand is expected to be a seasonal off-season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages [2] - Aluminum exports improved month-on-month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly [2] - In August, a small inventory build-up is expected [2] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely [5] - On the supply side, domestic TC increased with difficulty, and some scattered orders even decreased, while imported TC further increased [5] - In August, the increase in smelting output was further realized, and the overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations [5] - On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but some resilience [5] - Overseas, European demand was average, but some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees [5] - Domestically, social inventories fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventories decreased rapidly [5] - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to rebound supported by interest rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment [5] - In the medium and long term, a short position is recommended [5] - For the domestic and overseas spread, a long domestic-short overseas position can be maintained [5] - For the monthly spread, a long near-month-short far-month position can be considered [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remained at a high level [6] - On the demand side, overall demand was weak, and the premium remained stable recently [6] - On the inventory side, domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged [6] - In the short term, the fundamental situation is average, and the macro situation is mainly about anti-involution policy games [6] - The opportunity to shrink the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade [7] - On the demand side, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and some replenishment increased due to the macro atmosphere [7] - In terms of costs, nickel iron and chromium iron prices remained stable [7] - In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - Fundamentally, the situation remained weak, and in the short term, the macro situation followed anti-involution expectations [7] - Attention should be paid to the future policy direction [8] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated [9] - On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year-on-year, and the overall supply of waste batteries was tight due to the expansion of recycling plants [9] - Under low profits, recycled lead maintained low production, and demand had no obvious boost [9] - From April to July, the concentrate production increased, but the supply was in short supply due to smelting profits, and the TC quotation declined chaotically [9] - On the demand side, the battery finished product inventory was high, and the battery production rate increased this week, but the peak season was not prosperous [9] - The refined-scrap price difference was +25, and recycled lead shipments resisted price declines [9] - LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons [9] - In July and August, there were expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking and lead ingot purchasing efforts of terminal consumers were weak this week [9] - This week, the willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited strength [9] - The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons; when the price declined, recycled lead supported the price, and the refined-scrap price difference was +25 [9] - Lead ingot spot was at a discount of 25, mainly maintaining long-term orders [9] - In August, primary lead supply is expected to increase, recycled lead production will decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but it is still expected that the inventory will remain at a high level [9] - It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low-level fluctuation next week [9] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely [12] - On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production [12] - In early September, Yunnan smelters will start maintenance [12] - Overseas, the Wa State symposium released some signals of resuming production, but short-term recruitment difficulties and long equipment recovery cycles restricted large-scale exports before October [12] - African tin ore will have an increase in the long term, but the short-term increase is unstable [12] - There may be a risk of inspecting mine caves in Indonesia [12] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, and there were expectations of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the decline in photovoltaic growth was expected to be strong [12] - Domestic inventory decreased slightly in a fluctuating manner; overseas consumption was strong, and LME inventory was at a low level [12] - On the spot side, small-brand tin ingots were still in short supply, and most of the exchange inventory was high-priced Yunzi brand, and downstream had no strong willingness to pick up the goods [12] - Domestically, the short-term supply and demand situation remained weak, and attention should be paid to the possible short-term supply-demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest rate cut expectations on non-ferrous metals as a whole [12] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, buy near the cost line [12] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the start-up rate of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was 67%, 32% in the west and 35% in the east, with a total increase of 8 units month-on-month, and the resumption of production was stable but still below market expectations [15] - The start-up rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly, and the monthly output was close to 120,000 tons [15] - In August, the supply-demand balance was still in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the core of the supply-demand balance was the rhythm and amplitude of Hoshine's resumption of production [15] - The unexpected production cut of leading enterprises had a significant marginal improvement effect on the supply-demand balance, and with the stable start-up of downstream silicone and polysilicon, the market's visible inventory decreased significantly [15] - The continuous high basis also led to the continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts [15] - In the short term, the resumption of production in the southwest and Hoshine continues to fall short of expectations, and the supply-demand balance in August is still slightly in short supply [15] - In the long term, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the start-up rate is low [15] - Under the current cost curve structure, the potential start-up elasticity is high when the price reaches above 10,000 yuan, so the long-term outlook is still a cyclical bottom shock [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures market fluctuated greatly due to the expected start-up of salt lakes and mica mines [17] - On the spot side, the peak season effect was obvious, the proportion of downstream supply decreased, the volume of scattered orders increased during the week, and the enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices was high [17] - The inquiry atmosphere was active, and the trading volume increased significantly compared with last week [17] - Since the level of spot available inventory was still high, the basis remained basically stable as a whole [17] - The basis of spodumene lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,400 - 11,200 yuan, the basis of mica lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,500 - 11,200 yuan, and the basis of old ore materials (March - May) was concentrated at 11,800 - 11,100 yuan [17] - The core contradiction of lithium carbonate is that under the background of long-term overcapacity and an unbalanced supply-demand pattern, the resource side faces periodic compliance disturbances [17] - With the approaching of the downstream seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after the gradual production cut of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the performance of the peak season demand has a greater impact on the inventory reduction amplitude [17] - Therefore, in the current high macro sentiment, the price elasticity is large when the supply-side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward support is strong [17]
芳烃橡胶早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 00:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report PTA - TA's unexpected maintenance has increased, polyester's operation continues to recover, and there is still room to increase the load with relatively healthy inventory. The supply of raw material PX will gradually return, and the short - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [1]. MEG - In the short term, the domestic oil - based production restarts, the coal - based operation declines slightly, and the overall load recovers. The port inventory decreases due to the decline in arrivals and stable shipments. The downstream inventory level remains stable, the basis is strong, and the profit ratio remains basically stable. In the future, EG's operation will rise to a relatively high level, and the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the short - term low arrivals. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. The far - month is expected to accumulate inventory with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Recently, the operation of Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased, and the operation rate has slightly increased to 91.9%. The production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation of the polyester yarn end has increased, the raw material inventory has increased, and the finished product inventory has continued to decrease, but the profit is weak. In the future, as the inventory reduction speed of the polyester yarn end has accelerated, the inventory demand has emerged. The operation of staple fiber remains high but does not increase significantly. With the continuation of inventory reduction, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees at low prices [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of naphtha, PX CFR, PTA domestic spot, etc. have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of naphtha has increased from 66.8 to 68.8, and the PTA processing difference has also changed [1]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang's new device's other 1.6 million - ton production line has started production, and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device has been under maintenance [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - disk price, etc. have changed. For example, the MEG outer - disk price has increased from 526 to 536, and the MEG coal - based profit has increased from 421 to 474 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device has restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. have changed. For example, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber has increased from 6555 to 6680, and the short - fiber profit has changed from 19 to - 10 [2]. - **Device and Operation Changes**: Recently, the operation of Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased, and the operation rate has slightly increased to 91.9% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of US - dollar Thai standard spot, US - dollar Thai mixed spot, etc. have changed. For example, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot has increased from 1795 to 1830, and the RU main contract price has increased from 15675 to 15885 [3]. - **Inventory and Spread Changes**: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and the spreads such as the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract have changed [3]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc. have changed. For example, the price of ethylene has increased from 830 to 840, and the EPS (East China ordinary material) profit has increased from 75 to 275 [6].
沥青早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 00:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on August 26 were 3523, 3392, 3548, 3449, and 3404 respectively, with daily changes of 11, 23, 3, 17, and 10, and weekly changes of 50, 70, 49, 72, and 62 [4]. - The trading volume on August 26 was 268305, with a daily increase of 10750 and a weekly increase of 7679; the open - interest was 394850, with a daily decrease of 16637 and a weekly decrease of 37043; the inventory was 29790, with a daily decrease of 1150 and a weekly decrease of 1350 [4]. Market Prices - The market prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China on August 26 were 3540, 3720, 3490, 3680, and 3880 respectively. The daily changes were 20, 0, 10, 30, and 0, and the weekly changes were - 40, - 10, - 30, 0, and 0 [4]. - The spot prices of Jingbo (Haiyun) and Luhai (Xinbohai) on August 26 were 3680 and 3680 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and 30, and weekly changes of 10 and 0 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis in Shandong, East China, and South China on August 26 were 17, 197, and - 33 respectively, with daily changes of 9, - 11, and - 1, and weekly changes of - 90, - 60, and - 80 [4]. - The calendar spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, 12 - 03, and consecutive first - consecutive second on August 26 were 9, - 153, 113, 45, and 26 respectively, with daily changes of - 13, 20, - 14, 7, and - 3, and weekly changes of - 8, 21, - 23, 10, and - 18 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread on July 28 was - 1, and on August 18 was 69; the asphalt Marrow profit on July 28 was - 70, and on August 18 was - 5; the ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on July 28 was 448, and on August 18 was 503; the Marrow - type refinery comprehensive profit on July 28 was 711, and on August 18 was 764 [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China on August 26 was - 119, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly increase of 7; the import profit from Singapore to South China on August 26 was - 1044, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 7 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on August 26 was 68.8, with a daily increase of 1.1 and a weekly increase of 3.0; the gasoline market price in Shandong on August 26 was 7627, with a daily increase of 9 and a weekly decrease of 54; the diesel market price in Shandong on August 26 was 6501, with a daily increase of 25 and a weekly decrease of 17; the residue oil market price in Shandong on August 26 was 3635, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4].
有色套利早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 00:19
Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals on August 27, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 79,550, LME 9,720, ratio 8.21; March price: domestic 79,180, LME 9,805, ratio 8.11; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.14; spot export profit - 660.06 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22,280, LME 2,794, ratio 7.97; March price: domestic 22,265, LME 2,799, ratio 6.04; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.63; spot import profit - 1,820.78 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20,780, LME 2,617, ratio 7.94; March price: domestic 20,705, LME 2,614, ratio 7.93; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.43; spot import profit - 1,287.62 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 119,350, LME 14,885, ratio 8.02; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.22; spot import profit - 1,806.58 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16,750, LME 1,965, ratio 8.55; March price: domestic 16,920, LME 2,004, ratio 11.15; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.82; spot import profit - 531.05 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 500, - 510, - 530, - 550 respectively; theoretical spreads are 500, 899, 1306, 1714 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 105, - 110, - 105, - 110 respectively; theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, 578 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 80, - 115, - 150 respectively; theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 85, 75, 85, 90 respectively; theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 420, 525 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 300, 410, 630, 870 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread 640; theoretical spread 5591 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 140, - 360 respectively; theoretical spreads are 366, 734 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 95, - 10 respectively; theoretical spreads are 146, 276 [4] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 95, 180 respectively; theoretical spreads are 157, 269 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.56, 3.82, 4.68, 0.93, 1.22, 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.50, 3.73, 4.95, 0.94, 1.33, 0.71 respectively [5]