Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper price in overseas markets slightly corrected in the second half of the week due to the holiday in the domestic market. The willingness of domestic downstream buyers to accept high prices has significantly decreased. Attention should be paid to the support when the price approaches the psychological price of downstream buyers. The continuous high export of domestic electrolytic copper in the past three months has led to an unobvious inventory accumulation rate in China. In the future, macro-level factors such as the change of domestic risk appetite and the Fed's actions, as well as industrial-level factors such as the contraction of the New York spread and the maintenance of high premiums in non-US regions, should be monitored [1]. - The import volume of primary aluminum has declined significantly, while the exports of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi-finished products have all increased. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is withdrawn in 2026, but the month-on-month recovery of photovoltaic installation volume is better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased. Although there are signs of weakening in both domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption and the basis is at a multi-year low, the high price can still be supported by strong expectations due to the low inventory level [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3M contango has been fluctuating, which eases the overseas supply - demand contradiction. On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC has accelerated its decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. As the winter storage approaches, domestic smelters are competing for zinc concentrate inventory. Currently, the profit is acceptable, but attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the downstream orders at the end of the year are weak; overseas, the demand in Europe is average, and the import of zinc ingots in the United States has recently increased. As the export window gradually opens, the domestic social inventory has declined in an oscillatory manner, and the domestic spot is tight. Affected by the decline in zinc price, the premium has remained high. There is a trend of Guangdong's zinc supply flowing to East China. The low inventory in the overseas LME has increased, and the premium has turned into a contango. In terms of strategy, the domestic fundamental situation of zinc is poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so it is difficult for the price center to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for the domestic - overseas market, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity; for the calendar spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel has declined slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is strong. On the inventory side, the inventory accumulation in China has slowed down this week, and the LME has slightly increased its inventory. The short - term fundamental situation is weak. According to the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization), the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025). Although there may be a difference between the actual quota and the association's statement, it is difficult to disprove it in the short term. From the perspective of odds, more investors are going long, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [4]. - On the supply side, steel mills maintain a high production schedule. On the demand side, the demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron has slightly stabilized, and the price of ferrochrome has remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are also maintained. The overall fundamental situation is weak. The Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support the price, and the news of the quota cut by the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization) has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - The lead price has risen following the macro - trend. On the supply side, the primary lead production is driven by profit, and the maintenance is expected to reduce production by 1 - 1.5 tons. The operation rate of concentrate mines has declined seasonally, and the concentrate supply has become tight, with no hope of a TC rebound; the secondary lead production has resumed, and the output has increased. Recyclers have shown an intention to support the price, and the maintenance within the month has affected 1.5 tons. On the demand side, the monthly battery finished product inventory has increased, and the demand is expected to weaken. Since the end of September, the lead ingot market has tightened, and the supply - demand mismatch has been serious. Currently, the resumption of secondary lead production has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, but it is difficult for battery factories to accumulate inventory due to their high operation rate, and downstream buyers' replenishment at low prices provides support. The implementation of the new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the procurement and sales are sluggish at the end of the year. The primary lead supply in November - December is expected to remain flat. This week, the resumption of secondary lead production and the maintenance of primary lead have offset each other, but the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, and the inventory is at a low level. The refined - scrap price difference has fallen back to - 50 with the increase in lead price, and the primary lead ingot spot has support. The social inventory in five regions remains at a low level of 18,400 tons, and there is still a risk of warehouse receipt contradiction. It is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - The tin price has fluctuated and declined this week. On the supply side, the domestic tin ingot output remains flat. Overseas, the output recovery in Low - Bang is slow due to the slow adjustment of pumping equipment, but the high price has stimulated the export of a large amount of inventory ore recently. If the tin price remains high, it may also accelerate the solution of the mine water accumulation problem, and the problem of imported ore has been slightly alleviated to a normal level. At the end of the year, there is an export rush. In November, the Indonesian President announced that the tin ingot export will exceed 6,000 tons in 2026. In the first quarter of next year, the temporary peace agreement between Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda has been reached, and the short - term risk disturbance has been alleviated. On the demand side, the downstream replenishment willingness is strong when the price drops, and the domestic inventory has declined; a large amount of inventory has been delivered overseas, and the LME inventory has increased significantly. In the short term, the supply side may fluctuate greatly under the stimulation of high prices; in the long term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply exceeding expectations. The fundamental situation shows signs of marginal weakening. If the macro - situation shows a systematic decline, the demand will determine the upside space. Tin can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. 2026 is a year with a large - scale recovery in the supply side. If the macro - situation is worse than expected, the downward fluctuation will also be large [12]. - A large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production this week and currently maintains 88 units. As large factories gradually enter the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were in balance in December, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. In the long term, the current over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operation rate is low. The price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [15]. - Recently, the production scheduling of the downstream cathode segment has fallen short of expectations, and the futures price has quickly corrected. Then, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented, and the expectation of the passenger car market has slightly improved, which has provided support for the price. On the raw material side, the currently circulating supply is still tight, and lithium salt factories have limited acceptance of high - priced ore, resulting in a relatively light trading volume. On the lithium salt side, currently, upstream factories mainly focus on long - term contracts, and the spot sales are limited. The factory inventory continues to decline. On the downstream side, the current trading is mainly for the rigid needs of enterprises. After the significant correction of the futures price, the downstream trading has improved, and there are many post - point - price settlements at low prices. The overall basis quotation and trading have strengthened slightly [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, the Shanghai copper spot price fluctuated, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,203 tons. The LME copper inventory decreased by 2,850 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic downstream demand is weak due to high prices. Attention should be paid to macro and industrial factors in the future [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum ingot price in Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong regions has increased. The domestic alumina price has decreased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weak, but the low inventory and strong expectations support the high price [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: The zinc ingot price in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong regions has fluctuated. The LME zinc inventory has decreased by 275 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic supply will have a phased reduction at the end of the year, and the price is difficult to decline significantly. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of Shanghai nickel has increased, and the LME nickel inventory has increased by 20,088 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel have increased [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The overall fundamental situation is weak, and the Indonesian policy has supported the price in the short term [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price has risen, and the LME lead inventory has decreased by 2,925 tons [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead ingot spot is still in short supply, and the price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The tin price has declined, and the LME tin inventory has decreased by 15 tons [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply may fluctuate, and the long - term supply may be in marginal over - supply. The demand will determine the upside space [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon has changed, and the warehouse receipts have increased by 112 [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price will fluctuate with the cost. In the long term, the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of SMM electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have increased, and the warehouse receipts have increased by 2,039 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream demand has slightly improved, and the price has support. The upstream inventory is decreasing [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For contract 02, it follows the spot market, and the peak may have occurred in week 4. The subsequent price - cut rhythm is hard to judge, and the risk - reward ratio is poor at the current level, so entry is not recommended [3]. - For contract 04, a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested. Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and can't have an independent market in the short term. Based on the long - term logic of expected resumption of shipping and the off - season, a short - selling strategy on rallies is also recommended for contract 10, although it has the lowest price and is most likely to be pushed up by funds when there are geopolitical reversal news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1779.1, down 5.00%; EC2604 at 1182.0, down 3.42%; EC2606 at 1422.9, up 0.42%; EC2608 at 1533.0, down 0.01%; EC2610 at 1112.0, up 0.61% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: EC2602 had a trading volume of 43604 and open interest of 21811, a decrease of 3185; EC2604 had a volume of 22083 and open interest of 26339, an increase of 2409; etc. [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For EC2502 - 2604, the spread was 597.1, a decrease of 51.8 day - on - day and 37.8 week - on - week; for EC2504 - 2606, it was - 240.9, a decrease of 47.7 day - on - day and 31.1 week - on - week [2]. Spot Market Information - **Spot Indexes**: The spot (European Line) index was 3387.69 on 2025/1/6, down 3.59% from the previous period; the SCFI was 1690 dollars/TEU on 2025/12/26, up 10.24% [2]. - **European Line Spot Quotes**: In week 2, MSK opened at 2500 dollars, with a freight rate center of 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures. MSK opened at 2600 dollars in week 3 and 2700 dollars in week 4. CMA planned to raise the price to 3800 dollars in the second half of January but reduced the rate from 3293 to 2893 dollars between January 10 - 15. MSK reduced the Shanghai - Bremen/Gdansk freight from 2700 to 2400 dollars in week 4. HMM and YML announced a rate of 2800 dollars in the second half of January, and MSC also quoted 2800 dollars [4]. Related News On 1/7, Hamas was reshaping its rule in the Gaza ruins, challenging Trump's peace plan. Despite being besieged, Hamas was trying to restore pre - war governance, and it was in the process of reorganizing its armed forces and selecting new political leaders [5].

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 12/8 | 12/31 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/7 | MINI. LA BOLAFIA/ FAF 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 51 | -52 | 17 | -4 | -20 | -16 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 81 | -82 | -33 | 6 | -60 | -66 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | ー | -122 | -63 | -14 | -30 | -16 | | | | 01-03 | -40 | -57 | -43 | -21 | -27 | 24 | | | | 02-03 | -22 | -14 | -5 | -12 | -9 | 3 | | | | 03-06 | -47 | -23 | 16 | 10 | 23 | 13 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 2959 | 3022 | 3133 | 3144 | 3160 | 16 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on January 8, 2026 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 8, 2026, the domestic spot price was 103400, the LME spot price was 13135, and the spot ratio was 7.99. The domestic three - month price was 103600, the LME three - month price was 13121, and the three - month ratio was 7.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.94, with a profit of - 1162.96, and the profit for spot export was 30.61 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24300, the LME spot price was 3196, and the spot ratio was 7.60. The domestic three - month price was 24370, the LME three - month price was 3242, and the three - month ratio was 5.46. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24140, the LME spot price was 3100, and the spot ratio was 7.79. The domestic three - month price was 24410, the LME three - month price was 3118, and the three - month ratio was 7.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 148450, the LME spot price was 18331, and the spot ratio was 8.10. The profit for spot import was 184.80 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17575, the LME spot price was 2037, and the spot ratio was 8.58. The domestic three - month price was 17845, the LME three - month price was 2080, and the three - month ratio was 11.63 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 8, 2026, the spreads for the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 1920, - 1730, - 1650, and - 1640 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 629, 1155, 1691, and 2227 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 55, 95, 140, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 355, 485, and 616 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 75, 125, 175, and 220, and the theoretical spreads were 232, 366, 499, and 633 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 340, 355, 375, and 400, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 321, 429, and 538 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 8310, 8840, 9030, and 9450 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1800, and the theoretical spread was 7346 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 1960 and 40, and the theoretical spreads were 505 and 796 [4][5] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 25 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 108 and 248 (in doc 4) and 130 and 284 (in doc 5) - **Lead**: The spreads were - 85 and 255, and the theoretical spreads were 91 and 208 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 8, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) were 4.25, 4.24, 5.81, 1.00, 1.37, and 0.73 respectively, and for LME (three - consecutive contracts) were 4.07, 4.18, 6.26, 0.98, 1.50, and 0.65 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant content provided Group 3: Summary of Different Categories Spot Market - Newman powder price is 824, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of 26, and its import profit is 14.84 [1] - PB powder price is 832, daily change 22, weekly change 31, and import profit 16.72 [1] - Mac fines price is 834, daily change 22, weekly change 31, and import profit 49.57 [1] - Jinbuba price is 785, daily change 22, weekly change 31, and import profit 47.87 [1] - Mainstream mixed fines price is 758, daily change 11, weekly change 18, and import profit 1.48 [1] - Super special fines price is 710, daily change 22, weekly change 30, and import profit 8.90 [1] - Carajás fines price is 919, daily change 18, weekly change 34, and import profit -11.27 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 873, daily change 22, weekly change 22, and import profit 14.75 [1] - Roy Hill fines price is 819, daily change 22, weekly change 31, and import profit 62.58 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 988, daily change 12, weekly change 6 [1] Futures Market - DCE i2601 contract price is 839.0, daily change 13.0, weekly change 30.0, and monthly spread -34.5 [1] - DCE i2605 contract price is 828.0, daily change 27.0, weekly change 39.0, and monthly spread 11.0 [1] - DCE i2609 contract price is 804.5, daily change 24.5, weekly change 37.5, and monthly spread 23.5 [1] - SGX FE01 price is 106.64, daily change 0.67, weekly change 1.09, and monthly spread -2.99 [1] - SGX FE05 price is 105.55, daily change 0.82, weekly change 1.29, and monthly spread 1.09 [1] - SGX FE09 price is 103.65, daily change 0.85, weekly change 1.34, and monthly spread 1.90 [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For PTA, the supply side shows that some devices have restarted and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. The polyester load has recovered, the inventory has slightly decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has improved. However, after the price of PX has strengthened significantly, on one hand, the profit of downstream filaments has declined significantly, and the possibility of accelerated production cuts has increased. On the other hand, the expansion of PXN has led to the recovery of domestic and overseas loads. Although the long - term pattern has not been completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has increased, and the short - term upward space may be limited, waiting for downstream price passing [1]. - For MEG, the domestic oil - based production has increased its load, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Overseas maintenance has continued to increase, the arrival at the port is stable, the port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of the week, and the basis has remained weak. The coal - based production efficiency has fluctuated at a low level. In the future, the domestic supply will increase steadily, overseas maintenance will increase month - on - month, the overall inventory accumulation will continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the operation of some devices in Zhejiang has restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the product inventory has accumulated, with the efficiency improving month - on - month. Although the domestic demand side of staple fiber is gradually entering the off - season, the spot efficiency has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise of raw materials, and the processing fee on the futures market has remained low. Considering that the absolute inventory is not high, the space for further weakening is limited, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has been stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of related products have shown certain fluctuations, but no clear overall trend conclusion is given in the report [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Supply side: Some devices in the PTA section have restarted, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. For example, Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device has restarted, and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device has increased its load [1]. - Demand side: The polyester load has recovered, and the inventory has slightly decreased [1]. - Price and cost: The basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has improved. The domestic operating rate of PX has increased, and overseas has also slightly increased the load. The PXN has shrunk month - on - month, and the disproportionation efficiency and isomerization efficiency have weakened month - on - month. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia has continued to shrink [1]. MEG - Supply side: The domestic oil - based production has increased its load, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Overseas maintenance has continued to increase, and the arrival at the port is stable. For example, Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton device has restarted, and Henan Coal Industry's 200,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [1]. - Inventory: The port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of the week, and the basis has remained weak [1]. - Profit: The coal - based production efficiency has fluctuated at a low level [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Supply side: The operation of some devices in Zhejiang has restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month [1]. - Demand side: The start - up of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the product inventory has accumulated, with the efficiency improving month - on - month [1]. - Profit: Although the domestic demand side of staple fiber is gradually entering the off - season, the spot efficiency has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise of raw materials, and the processing fee on the futures market has remained low [1]. Natural Rubber - Price: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, etc., have shown certain fluctuations. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber has increased by 35 in the weekly change [1]. - Inventory: The national explicit inventory has remained stable [1]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - Price: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS have fluctuated. For example, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) has changed from 5345 on December 30, 2025, to 5305 on January 7, 2026 [1]. - Profit: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have also shown corresponding changes [1].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2023 2024 2025 2026 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 984 985 984 990 1016 1148 1253 1269 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 01合约 05合约 09合约 11合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(1/7） 昨日(1/6） 一周前(12/31） 一月前(12/8） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 100 200 30 ...

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1403.00 | 0.00 | -47.00 | -102.00 | 0.21% Peak Downs | 228.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 6.50 | 23.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1000.00 | 47.00 | 35.00 | 40.00 | 7.53% Goonyella | 229.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 8.50 | 20.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -4.29% 盘面05 | 1136.00 | 58.00 | 26.00 | 29.00 | -1.52% | | 安泽主焦 | 1500.00 | 0.00 | -100.00 | | 0.00 5.63% 盘面09 | 1219.50 | 65.00 | 27. ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/08 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/30 | 326.83 | 371.16 | -9.93 | 607.93 | -236.77 | 21.96 | 44.33 | | 2025/12/31 | 328.49 | 371.99 | -9.55 | 601.64 | -229.65 | 21.80 | 43.50 | | 2026/01/05 | 328.36 | 377.83 | -9.43 | 600.70 | -222.87 | 21.06 | 49.47 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase in different ranges in the weeks ending January 1, 2026 [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, reaching the highest level since 2019 [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with a forecast of 24 million tons of soybean meal exports. However, exports to China may decrease by 10 million tons compared to 2025 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to increase, with end - of - period inventory decreasing [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales in the week ending January 1, 2026, are expected to net increase by 7.5 - 16 million tons, with 7.5 - 13 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 3 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 1 - 3.5 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 0.3 million tons [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, the highest since 2019. The USDA will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 13, 2026 (Beijing time) [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with exports to China expected to be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. Brazil is also expected to export 24 million tons of soybean meal in 2026 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to be 19.7 million tons, with total supply of 22.56 million tons, exports of about 16.2 million tons, and end - of - period inventory decreasing from 2.36 million tons to 2.16 million tons [1]. - A commodity survey shows that Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous forecast. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [5].