Group 1: General Information - Report title: Gold, Silver Futures Variety Weekly Report [2] - Report period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be at the end of the trend [7] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, gold was affected by geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy divergence, tariff policy nodes, and weak economic data, showing a volatile downward trend. Future gold prices need to focus on the Fed's policy shift timing, the sustainability of global central bank gold purchases, and the inflation path. Geopolitical black - swan events are the biggest upside risk factor [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 766 - 775, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This week's strategy suggestion: The main gold contract 2510 is short - biased in the short term. The lower support is 754 - 760, and the upper pressure is 784 - 790 [12] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold futures and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways movement, and it may be close to the end of the trend [33] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, silver showed a volatile trend affected by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks. Future positive factors for silver prices include strengthened Fed rate - cut expectations, global liquidity easing, and a weaker US dollar. The decline in the gold - silver ratio attracts capital inflows, and geopolitical risks increase hedging demand, with an annual supply gap of 3659 tons. Potential pressures are the high US Treasury yields increasing holding costs and weak manufacturing suppressing industrial demand [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly. The lower support interval was 8400 - 8500, and the upper pressure was 8900 - 9000 [36] - This week's strategy suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly. The lower support interval is 8300 - 8500, and the upper pressure is 8900 - 9000 [36] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver futures and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

2025.06.30-07.04 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入红色量能区域第一周。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量217万吨，表观消费量220万吨，主要钢厂库存185万 吨，社会库存560万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段。 2 钢材现货企业可考虑50%比例的多方保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 耐心观望等待调整阶段完成。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 螺纹钢期货主力合约中线趋势进入红色量能区域第一周。 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材现货企业可考虑50%比例的分步买入保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为 ...

2025.06.30-07.04 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于弱势震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱行业整体开工率维持高位，综合开工率为80%+，尽管 中盐昆山装置停车检修，杭州龙山降负运行，但行业整体供应并未 明显收缩。下游玻璃行业对纯碱的采购需求持续低迷，浮法玻璃与 光伏玻璃日熔量均出现下降，导致纯碱刚需支撑不足。企业普遍采 取逢低少量补库的策略，对高价货源接受度有限，市场成交以低价 刚需小单为主。除非出现实质性产能调整或需求端明显回暖，否则 承压运行趋势难改，预计纯碱期货价格仍将维持弱势震荡走势。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 上周纯碱期货市场震荡偏弱，价格波动小。供应端开工率仍 处高位，部分装置检修或减量。需求端下游采购意愿弱，多 低价刚需采购。因供需宽松、需求不振，预计纯碱期货价格 将延续弱势震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间1150-1300，可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The mid - line trend is influenced by positive macro factors like the rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation [5][11]. - The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900 [8]. - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. Macro factors are expected to push up aluminum prices in early July [5]. - **Trend Logic**: The rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation are positive for aluminum prices [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold low - position long orders in early July, and new orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract was predicted to be between 20400 - 20900 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [8]. Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The short - term shortage of domestic aluminum ore supply is difficult to ease, and the purchase price may be lowered. For imported ore, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea in July - August is expected to appear, but the price increase space is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: By June 26, the installed capacity of alumina in China was 112.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 89.7 million tons and an operating rate of 79.52%. The supply and demand at home and abroad will be in surplus in the second half of the year, but the surplus degree is narrower than in Q1 [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The domestic production capacity is approaching the 45 - million - ton ceiling, and the production increase space is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1200 yuan/ton. The impact of the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation on exports remains to be seen [9]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for aluminum products is weak in the off - season. The starting rates of various downstream industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees [10]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 461,000 tons, up about 3% from last week and about 40% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,900 tons, up about 2% from last week and about 1% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has slightly increased [10][16]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2630 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 450 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [11][18]. - **Market Expectation**: If the US dollar index or A - shares decline next week, the upward trend of aluminum prices will pause, and the market will enter a wide - range oscillation adjustment [11]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of some imported ores are expected to show a weakening oscillation trend. The price of thermal coal has rebounded, and the domestic alumina price has continued to decline [12]. - The price of aluminum products has changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [12]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore has rebounded, and the inventory of alumina has slightly increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has accumulated, but the accumulation space is limited [14][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - The starting rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 58.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1220 yuan/ton this week, compared with - 1490 yuan/ton last week. The current spread may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34][35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 7 weeks. The short side has reduced positions in the past month, and the long side has remained stable. The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has slightly shrunk this week. Both the long and short sides have significantly increased positions since the end of May, and the market divergence is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish next week [39].

2025.06.30-07.04 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格震荡偏强走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格下跌，整体供应仍处于宽松，下游消费并无好转。期 货价格近期受资金情绪和政策预期影响出现反弹；长城期货AI智能投询品 种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在上升通道中。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，建议逢低少量做多。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，LME铜库存为122,125吨，注销仓单占比为25.73%。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较低水平。 震 ...

2025.06.23-06.27 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约本周预计运行区间为2970至3100，建议关注2970一线的支 撑力度。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中线多方阶段趋势逐步形成过程中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢周度产量212万吨，表观消费量219万吨，主要钢厂库存182万 吨，社会库存563万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段。 2 耐心观望等待调整阶段完成。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 建议密切留意新一轮多方阶段趋势酝酿中。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 现货企业可考虑10%比例的分步买入保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures markets are expected to continue their weak and volatile trends due to the high supply and low demand [6][10][27][31]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. - For the glass 2509 contract, the expected trading range is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, with small price fluctuations [6]. - On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry on June 19 was 86.57%, remaining at a high level. Some plants were under maintenance or production reduction, and Zhongyan Kunshan has been shut down for maintenance since June 19, expected to last about 20 days [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream industry's purchasing willingness was weak, mainly adopting a low - price and just - in - time purchasing strategy. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the demand is sluggish. It is expected that the soda ash futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash futures were weak and volatile last week. The supply side had a high operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. The market lacked driving forces, and the fundamentals were in surplus. It was expected that the price would continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The soda ash futures market was weak and volatile last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply side operating rate remained high, and some plants were under maintenance or production reduction. The downstream purchasing willingness on the demand side was weak, mostly purchasing at low prices on a just - in - time basis. Due to the loose supply - demand situation and sluggish demand, it is expected that the soda ash futures price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly operating rate, production, light and heavy inventory in China, daily basis, and weekly ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][14][16]. - The multi - empty flow of soda ash futures is - 59.9%, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 7.0 ± 3, and the capital is basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [19]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Except for the firm quote of large - size glass in Shahe, other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the float glass price will continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [27]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market continued to be weak last week. The industry's production resumption was faster than cold repair, resulting in high production capacity. Due to the off - season in June and the weak real estate market, the deep - processing orders were few, and the demand expectation was poor. The glass factory's inventory increased during the holidays, and the中下游 purchasing was cautious, which suppressed the price. The futures fluctuated around 1000 yuan. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the contradiction between demand and inventory was unresolved. It was expected to continue to fluctuate this week. The expected trading range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to stay on the sidelines [30]. - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass spot and futures markets were weak and volatile last week. Only the large - size glass in Shahe had a firm quote, while other markets declined. The terminal demand was sluggish, and the downstream mainly made just - in - time purchases. The supply - side pressure was evident, and the manufacturers' promotional efforts had limited effects. Affected by the weather, the shipments in South and Southwest China slowed down. It is expected that the price will continue to be weak and volatile. The expected trading range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes weekly production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel in China, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [32][35][38]. - The multi - empty flow of glass futures is - 91.4%, indicating that the main force is bearish; the capital energy is 46.4, and the main capital has a slight inflow; the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [43].

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: 2025.06.23 - 06.27 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Reported Futures Varieties: Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend Logic: Spot prices are stable, production costs decrease due to lower electricity prices in the southwest during the wet season, overall supply is abundant, downstream industries have production cut expectations, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase [7] - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the existing supply - demand contradiction, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price was weak, and it was recommended to wait and see [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price remains weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [12] - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [16] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly with fluctuations [29] - Trend Logic: Spot prices fell last week, the futures market declined, production cost support weakened due to lower lithium ore prices, downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, and supply is expected to grow faster than demand. The AI report shows the daily price is in a downward channel [30] - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the weak operation, it is recommended to wait and see [30] 2. Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price was weakly fluctuating, and it was recommended to wait and see [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price continues to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [33] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37]

2025.06.23-06.27 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第24周油厂大豆实际压榨量225.87万吨，开机率为 63.49%；大豆库存599.6万吨，较上周减少10.69万吨，减幅1.75%。豆粕 库存41万吨，较上周增加2.75万吨，增幅7.19%。当前油厂开机率仍然维 持高位运行，然而终端养殖饲料需求旺盛，下游提货积极性较好，豆粕 库存累积缓慢。尽管供应宽松格局抑制价格上行空间，但巴西贴水坚挺 及美豆进入关键生长期提供支撑，叠加豆粕库存处于低位。综合来看， 豆粕期货延续宽幅震荡运行。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏空。M2509短期 内或维持宽幅震荡，预计运行区间：2880-3100，可考虑区 间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509短期内 维持宽幅震荡，预计运行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show a large - range oscillation, with a bullish trend in July. The near - term bullish sentiment is based on the short - squeeze behavior induced by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the major negative factor of Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900 [5][12]. - The overall downstream aluminum processing industry is in a strong off - season atmosphere. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to decline slightly on a week - on - week basis [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The basis for the near - term bullish view is the short - squeeze behavior caused by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider increasing inventory allocation around 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract in the coming week was expected to be between 20,200 and 20,800 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Supply - side**: The shortage of domestic bauxite supply is difficult to break, and there is an expectation of further tightening. The supply of alumina has decreased but is expected to recover by the end of the month, with a gradual small surplus. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but the ingot output has declined due to some aluminum plants increasing the proportion of aluminum water. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rates of various downstream aluminum products such as profiles, plates, foils, cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees, with weak demand. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is at a low level since 2017, with a decline of about 3% compared to last week and about 41% compared to the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 5% compared to last week and is at a relatively low level in the range since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,640 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, during the policy window period, market expectations are generally positive, providing stable support for commodities. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to oscillate at a high level next week, with the mainstream range likely to be between 20,400 and 20,800 yuan [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industrial links have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Henan's first - grade alumina has decreased by 3.35% week - on - week, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased by 0.96% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventories of various products such as bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rods have changed. For example, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 0.95% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2.92% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply - demand Situation - The overall downstream aluminum processing is in the off - season, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [25]. 3.7 Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains relatively strong [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,490 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,700 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [36][37]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has slightly rebounded in the past 6 weeks. In the latest period, the long - position camp has remained stable while the short - position camp has reduced positions. The market may mainly show a relatively strong oscillatory performance in the near term [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has remained stable this week. Both the long and short camps have significantly increased positions for two consecutive weeks, and market divergence is increasing. The net long position of financial - speculation - based funds has continued to increase slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may be stable with a slightly upward trend next week [41].