2025.05.26-05.30 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析，螺纹钢期货主力合 约本周预计运行区间为3100至2950，建议关注3100一线的压力位 置。中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量231万吨，表观消费量247万吨，主要钢厂库存187万 吨，社会库存629万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段，资金方面则空方阵营略占优势。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 3100至2950，可留意3100一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源 ...

2025.05.19-05.23 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约本周 运行区间为3130至2980，建议关注3130一线的压力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量226万吨，表观消费量260万吨，主要钢厂库存185万 吨，社会库存650万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 目录 中线行情分析 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 3130至2980，可留意3130一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 品种交易策略 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to continue its weak oscillatory consolidation in the medium - term, and short - term M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 2850 - 3000 [6][10] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Medium - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a stage of weak oscillatory consolidation [6] - Trend logic: In the 19th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6027 million tons (12.70%); soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,100 tons (23.26%). The concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have led to a more abundant global soybean supply. The increase in domestic imports and the recovery of the oil mill operating rate have strengthened the loose pattern of soybean meal. However, the current terminal breeding feed demand is fair, and the historically low soybean meal inventory restricts the phased release of supply, providing some support for prices [6] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds on the long side. M2509 was expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, with an operating range of 2850 - 3000, and interval operations could be considered [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a downward channel, with slightly more funds on the short side. Under the loose supply pattern, M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with an operating range of 2850 - 3000, and interval operations can be considered [10] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow is - 48.5, indicating that the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 12.7, and the funds are basically stable; the long - short divergence is 96.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13] 1.3.3 Relevant Data - Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [17][20][22] - Relevant data include weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [17][19][22] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the medium - term, and short - term Y2509 is expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation pattern in the range of 7650 - 8000 [27][31] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Medium - term trend: The overall trend of the main soybean oil contract continues the range - bound oscillation [27] - Trend logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 19th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 350,700 tons, an increase of 61,400 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 654,400 tons, an increase of 27,600 tons from the previous week. With the increase in soybean supply to oil mills and the recovery of the operating rate, the increase in crushing volume has led to a more abundant soybean oil supply, but weak terminal consumption has kept market transactions sluggish. The current soybean oil inventory is still at a historical low, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations has improved the macro sentiment, providing support. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the fluctuations in crude oil prices have added to market disturbances [27] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [27] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation stage, with more funds on the long side. It was expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation in the short term. The operating range of Y2509 was 7650 - 8000, and interval operations could be considered [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation stage, with more funds on the short side. Due to the loose supply - demand situation of soybean oil futures, combined with crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances, it is expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short term. The operating range of Y2509 is 7650 - 8000, and interval operations can be considered [31] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow is - 56.5, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is - 2.2, and the funds are basically stable; the long - short divergence is 63.0, indicating a low risk of market reversal [34] 2.3.3 Relevant Data - Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [40][44][49] - Relevant data include weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume of soybean oil, as well as weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate of soybeans, and weekly port inventory [38][41][45]

2025.05.19-05.23 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中美贸易缓和降低短期避险需求、美联储鹰派立场支撑美元走强、全球 央行购金节奏阶段性放缓、技术面修正压力显现以及地缘风险边际收敛。 尽管中长期仍受去美元化和央行购金支撑，但短期市场需消化政策预期 与流动性拐点的影响。需关注5月20日后美联储政策路径、6月欧洲央行 降息节奏及中美贸易谈判进展，以判断黄金是否能重回上行通道。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期高位承压，建议观望。黄金主力合约2508下方支撑： 732－741，上方压力750－759。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myst ...

2025.05.19-05.23 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 本周企业检修致供应下降，企业待发支撑下现货价格稳定。 纯碱需求淡稳，下游补库，采购可按需进行，消费及开工稳 健，出口情绪提升、部分企业接单量增。本周浮法拟新增一 条 500 吨产线点火、光伏保持稳定。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1250-1400，可考虑空仓观望。 本周有企业加入检修，个别企业陆续恢复，整体供应呈现下降预期， 预计产量67+万吨，开工率79+%。供应下降，企业待发支撑，现货 价格相对稳定。纯碱需求淡稳，下游有补库，当前现货价格尚可， 根据自身情况采购。整体消费波动不大，装置开工相对稳健。近期 出口情绪提升，有企业接单量增加。上周，浮法日熔量15.67万吨， 环比增加1 6 0 0吨，光伏日熔量9 . 8 8万吨，环比稳定。本周，浮法 预期一条500点火，光伏预期稳定。 综上所述，短期看，纯碱走势呈现稳定态势，情绪改善。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品 ...

Report Overview - Report period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures [2] Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend logic: Affected by poor supply - demand fundamentals, prices continue to decline. Weak demand in the photovoltaic industry, cautious downstream procurement, low trading volume in the silicone market, and limited demand from aluminum alloy manufacturers [7] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the existing supply - demand contradiction in the industrial silicon market [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] - This week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17][21][23] Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner. There is a possibility of continuous decline, and radical investors can consider buying put options [28][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner [28] - Trend logic: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell last week. Some integrated production enterprises face cost inversion. Downstream enterprises mainly stock up for rigid needs and are highly watchful. The overall market has oversupply. However, recent Sino - US tariff adjustments may increase the export expectation of energy - storage batteries and long - term demand for lithium carbonate. Technically, the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in a downward channel [29] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the pessimistic market sentiment and the possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices [29] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [33] - This week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [34] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate in a large range of 19,000 - 21,000. Next week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. The market is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the expected weakening of demand reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. Although the positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the focus should be on the demand side. Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be in a large - range shock, with a relatively strong shock in late May [5][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In mid - to late May, due to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, the market still expects weakening demand, which reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level next week, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500 [5]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the aluminum price would continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract was temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading. For spot enterprises, it is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8][9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The cost of mines in Guinea varies greatly. If the CIF price of standard - grade ore in Guinea falls below $70 per dry ton and remains at this level for some time, some mines may choose to reduce production. Currently, the supply of imported ore is relatively loose, and low - cost mines have a certain ability to resist price declines. There may be a further decline in the price of imported ore, but it is expected to gradually bottom out below $70 per dry ton. If there are policy disturbances, there may be a rebound [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of mid - May, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons (the increase in production capacity mainly came from Hebei), the operating capacity was 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2%. Recently, the supply side of alumina has changed frequently, the scale of production reduction has expanded, and the output has decreased periodically. Coupled with the relatively strong purchasing and replenishment意愿 of some downstream aluminum plants, the demand has increased slightly, which alleviates the oversupply situation and supports the price increase [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the week of May 15, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased steadily to 843,000 tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is at a high level, and the production in Sichuan Province continues to rise. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling of 45 million tons, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearly completed, and the new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy - consumption dual - control. Overseas markets are restricted by high energy costs. Although the production is increasing, the overall capacity utilization rate is already high, and the room for further production increase this year is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with about 1,500 yuan/ton last week. The phased easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation, but its boosting effect on exports remains to be seen [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 56.5% this week. Benefiting from the support of real - estate policies, the policy benefits are gradually transmitted to the industry, but the new industrial orders are still weak [12]. - **Aluminum Plates, Strips and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.2%. The cancellation of reciprocal tariffs has limited impact on the export of aluminum plates and strips. The recovery of terminal demand has been gradually transmitted to the upstream aluminum processing industry, providing certain support for the operation of the aluminum plate and strip sector. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The cancellation of Sino - US trade reciprocal tariffs may lead to a short - term rebound in exports in the household appliances and electronics sectors, driving the export - related operation of domestic aluminum foil enterprises [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2% this week. Considering the enterprise's production schedule and order prospects, the industry operating rate is expected to remain stable [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading domestic primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. Enterprises reported that orders and operating conditions were slightly weaker than those in early May. The industry operating rate may still maintain a stable and weak trend next week. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 55.0%. The current industry cost pressure is still prominent. The continuous increase in the price of primary aluminum drives up the price of scrap aluminum, while the increase in the price of alloy ingot products is limited, resulting in a further expansion of the theoretical loss of the industry [12]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 580,000 tons, a decrease of about 6% compared with last week and about 22% lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level since 2017. The easing of Sino - US tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of European routes recently. There may be a situation of rush - exporting during the window period of tariff confrontation. May and June may not be the off - peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 129,500 tons, a decrease of about 14% compared with last week and about 28% lower than the same period last year. The inventory - reduction speed has accelerated again, and it is at the mid - axis level since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [12][17]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina Profit**: The current average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with about 300 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of 2,500 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, but the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken over time. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are further policies to support the aluminum price. Fundamentally, more attention should be paid to the demand side. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the negative impact is limited. On the demand side, the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - peak season, and the overall demand growth momentum is insufficient. However, due to the delivery of power - transmission and transformation orders and the start of the second - batch tender in the aluminum cable industry, the demand is still guaranteed in the short term, and the回调 space is limited. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate around the 20,000 mark next week to accumulate energy for an upward attack [13]. - **Key Concerns**: - Whether the mining process of Guinea mines will have a major impact on imported ores after June. - Whether there will be a rush - exporting situation during the window period of the easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation [13]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the bauxite price changed from falling to stable. In the market situation of oversupply, sellers are in a passive position. However, the price of $70 per dry ton is approaching the cost price of some high - cost mines, and mines have the intention to support the price. Recently, the price of thermal coal has been running weakly. Due to high inventory and low demand in the off - peak season, most traders are still pessimistic about the subsequent price trend. The price of alumina has risen significantly. The previous loss - induced production reduction has indeed been reflected in the supply - demand level. At the same time, it is rumored that Guinea has tightened mining licenses, and the alumina price was炒作 again near the weekend. The Sino - US tariff easing measures are being gradually implemented, and with the rebound of the alumina end, the electrolytic aluminum price has reached the 20,000 - yuan mark; the performance of alloys is relatively weak, and the weak actual orders and the expected increase in scrap supply suppress the disk [14][15]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly due to the increase in imported ore arrivals and the cautious procurement of domestic alumina plants. However, the production rate of alumina is rising rapidly. Considering the shipping rhythm of Guinea, the supply of aluminum ore may turn tight again after June and July. The alumina inventory continues to decline slightly. The overseas LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly. Since the end of May 2024, it has been continuously declining slightly. The room for production increase of overseas electrolytic aluminum plants this year is limited. With the easing of Sino - US - EU tariffs, the inventory may continue to decline [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit of Key Links in the Domestic Aluminum Industry**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is expected to be about 2,580 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of about 300 yuan/ton last week; the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, compared with about 17,100 yuan/ton last week, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton (compared with 2,500 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with a loss of about 1,500 yuan/ton last week [19]. - **Operating Rate of Downstream Processing Enterprises**: This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, showing a differentiated pattern. In the off - peak season, the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [21][22]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is slightly bullish. Under the situation of low inventory and the possibility of another rush - exporting in China, the spot price provides certain upward support for the futures price [28]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a premium of $5.79 per ton (compared with a discount of $9.4 per ton last week). Since mid - to late May 2024, the LME inventory has been continuously declining slightly. Currently, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level since 1990. With the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the market focus has returned to the low inventory. The spot quotation of A00 aluminum ingots is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton, compared with a discount of 0 yuan/ton last week. As Sino - US gradually implement the measures to ease tariffs and the domestic social inventory is relatively low, the phenomenon of spot traders adding prices to pick up goods has increased. This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,790 yuan/ton, compared with - 3,190 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a low level in recent years, which provides obvious support for the electrolytic aluminum price [31][36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: In the past two weeks, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. After the short - sellers significantly increased their positions in mid - March, they have slightly reduced their positions, but the long - sellers have continued to reduce their positions since mid - March. The short - term market may continue a narrow - range rebound [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: This week, the net long position remained stable, and both the long and short sides mainly reduced their positions slightly. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to remain stable and is still at a high level since the end of 2024. The net short position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises has slightly narrowed. From the performance of the current main funds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [42].

2025.05.12-05.16 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期部分企业开始检修，后续有企业检修，整体供应呈现下降趋势， 预计本周产量68+万吨，开工80+%左右。企业待发尚可，产销维持， 价格相对稳定态势。纯碱需求一般，低价成交为主，消费正常，开 工变化小。据了解，出口波动不大，相对稳健，有反馈好转。上周， 浮法日熔量15.55万吨，环比减少2100吨，光伏日熔量9.88万吨， 环比减少600吨。本周，浮法及光伏日熔量稳定。 综上所述，供应下降需求支撑，短期纯碱走势止跌维稳，价格坚挺。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 主力合约SA2509上周先抑后扬。上周纯碱产量75.51万吨，开 工率微降，装置检修致局部减量，新产能释放抵消影响。4 月30日库存降但处近五年同期最高。浮法玻璃日熔量降、光 伏玻璃升，重碱需求边际企稳，轻碱下游弱，预计纯碱走势 震荡运行，预期运行区间1250-1400，可考虑空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract likely to remain around the 20,000 level in the short term. The market anticipates that the US may choose to ease policies and tariff confrontation with China before the US debt matures in June, which will limit the downside of aluminum prices. However, the transmission of domestic favorable policies takes time, and the market has strong expectations of weakening demand due to the change of seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, which will reduce the upward momentum of aluminum prices [5][13]. - The supply of bauxite is expected to increase in May, and the market may achieve a re - balance of supply and demand after July, with the price center expected to stabilize in the range of $70 - 75 per dry ton. The alumina market has a shortage due to maintenance, and the spot supply is tight, with a possible increase in spot prices in the future. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss, but the export volume is expected to gradually recover [10]. - The operating rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show a differentiated pattern. The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to rise slightly next week. The inventory of aluminum ingots may continue to rise in May, while the destocking speed of aluminum rods has significantly narrowed [12][25][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 19,000 - 21,000. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract may have a slight rebound next week and generally remain around the 20,000 level [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: It was expected that Shanghai Aluminum would remain around the 20,000 level, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]. - This week's strategy: It is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract is temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - The supply of domestic bauxite has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the overall supply of imported bauxite can basically meet the downstream demand. The bauxite supply is expected to continue to increase in May, and the market may achieve supply - demand re - balance after July, with the price center stabilizing at $70 - 75 per dry ton [10]. Alumina Market - As of May 8, the built - in alumina production capacity in China was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25%. Due to maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the market spot supply is tight, and there may be a rise in spot prices [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, remaining stable compared with last week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,500 yuan per ton, showing a slight expansion in the past two weeks. The export volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, but it is expected to gradually recover through supply chain reconstruction and tariff cost sharing mechanisms [10]. Demand - The operating rates of different downstream sectors show a differentiated pattern. The operating rate of profiles decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%; the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased; the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.2%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum increased by 2.5 percentage points to 55.0% [12]. Inventory - The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 20% lower than the same period last year. The inventory may continue to rise in May. The inventory of aluminum rods is 150,100 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and about 27% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been falling slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990, but there may be an inflection point [12]. Profit and Market Expectation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 300 yuan per ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,500 yuan per ton. The aluminum price is expected to rise slightly next week, with an average price of about 19,700 [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed. For example, the price of bauxite has generally declined, the price of alumina in Henan has increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [14]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fourth consecutive week, the alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly [16][18]. Supply - Demand Situation - The profits of domestic alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries this week are about 300 yuan per ton and 2,500 yuan per ton respectively. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,500 yuan per ton [20]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a differentiated pattern. The operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [25][26]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum futures is neutral. The market is bearish on the demand in the second and third quarters but expects a rebound in demand at the end of the year [32]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $9.4 per ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a discount of 0 yuan per ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 3,190 yuan per ton [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly rebounded, and the short - term overseas aluminum price is under pressure. The net long position of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum has also slightly increased, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [40][43].

2025.05.12-05.16 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面较为偏空。 M2509预计短期内弱势震荡，运行区间：2850-3050，可考虑 区间操作。 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于弱势震荡整理的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第18周油厂大豆实际压榨量152.3万吨，开机率42.81%； 大豆库存474.64万吨，较上周增加15.16万吨，增幅3.30%；豆粕库存 8.21万吨，较上周增加0.73万吨，增幅9.76%。国内油厂大豆库存持续回 升，开机率逐步恢复，但区域性供需错配延缓豆粕累库，库存仍处低位。 巴西大豆收割尾声叠加集中到港强化供应宽松格局。尽管阶段性低库存 对价格形成支撑，但南美集中上市及国内供应增加预期压制上行空间， 综合来看豆粕期价处于弱势震荡整理阶段。 2 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面略微偏多。M2509 ...