Group 1: General Information - Report Period: June 23 - 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Fed's hawkish signals pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the gold price. However, geopolitical risks (escalation of the Middle - East conflict) and ETF purchases (an 8.31 - ton weekly increase in SPDR) provided support, causing gold to enter a consolidation phase. Next week, focus on economic data (core PCE, non - farm payrolls) and geopolitical situations. Weak data strengthening the interest - rate cut expectation or new changes in the Middle - East may lead to a gold price rebound; a continuously strengthening US dollar may continue to drive the price down. Central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but policy fluctuations may intensify short - term volatility [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 774 - 782, and the upper resistance was 800 - 808 [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 766 - 775, and the upper resistance is 800 - 808 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a consolidation phase, and it may be near the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price first rose and then fell, mainly driven by fluctuations in Fed policy expectations (interest rates remained unchanged but the easing expectation increased) and US dollar fluctuations. The industrial property of silver (surge in photovoltaic demand + global shortage) drove the silver price to a new high. The repair of the gold - silver ratio strengthened the upward trend, but hawkish signals and the stabilization of the US dollar led to profit - taking. Next week, a tight supply - demand balance (low inventory) and dovish expectations are expected to support a relatively strong consolidation. Be vigilant against the suppression of a US dollar rebound, and the impact of geopolitical risks is limited [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver's internal - external price difference [41][43][45]

2025.06.16-06.20 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第23周油厂大豆实际压榨量224.46万吨，开机率为 63.1%；大豆库存610.29万吨，较上周增加27.41万吨，增幅4.70%。豆粕 库存38.25万吨，较上周增加8.45万吨，增幅28.36%。近期国内大豆集中 到港，推动油厂维持高开机率，大豆压榨量显著提升，供应格局趋于宽 松。然而，豆粕需求表现较好，使得库存累积速度缓慢，同比仍处于较 低水平。同时，巴西大豆的出口节奏对其贴水报价形成支撑，叠加中美 贸易不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡整理阶段。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 中线行情分析 品种诊断情况 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏多。M2509短期 内或维持震荡偏强，预计运行区间：2880-3100，可考虑区 间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend. Last week, the cooling of US inflation strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a double - drop in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. The attack on a nuclear facility in Iran boosted safe - haven demand, and central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows jointly boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and retail data. Geopolitical risks may push up the gold price, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the impact of hawkish statements from the Fed or better - than - expected economic data [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, and it may be close to the end of the trend. Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but the game of Fed policies led to profit - taking, resulting in high - level volatility throughout the week. The strong industrial attribute (surge in photovoltaic demand and repair of the gold - silver ratio), combined with the weakening US dollar, magnifies the volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial supply gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and the pressure of long - position profit - taking. The logic of catch - up growth remains unchanged, but the volatility intensifies [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, US inflation cooling, geopolitical events, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's meeting and data. Geopolitical risks may push up the price, but beware of Fed's hawkish statements and strong economic data [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 774 - 782, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [34]. - **Trend Logic**: Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but Fed policy games led to profit - taking. Strong industrial attributes and a weak US dollar magnify volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's meeting and economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and profit - taking pressure [34]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would run strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper pressure at 8900 - 9000 [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][49]

01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2025.06.16-06.20 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 工业硅现货价格持续下跌，西南地区进入丰水期，电价略有下调，生产成 本降低，目前只有大厂和国企稳定运行，整体开工略有下调，但整体供应 仍处于宽松阶段。下游多晶硅有机硅开工持续缩减，采购窄幅下降。供需 面支撑表现偏弱。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线 处于下行通道中。 目录 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，库存压力大，产量预期增多，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 ...

01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 2025.06.16-06.20 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量207万吨，表观消费量219万吨，主要钢厂库存182万 吨，社会库存570万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段。 2 建议观望等待调整阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 耐心观望等待调整阶段完成。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约本周预计运行区间为2930至3050，建议关注2930一线的支 撑力度。 中线趋势判断 1 建议耐心等待新一轮趋势明朗。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 建议观望等待调整阶段完成。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、My ...

2025.06.16-06.20 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货市场整体呈现震荡偏弱走势。从供应端来看，行业开 工率维持高位，部分检修装置逐步恢复，新增产能如连云港碱业、 湖北双环等在5-6月陆续投产，华昌化工点火运行、海化老厂计划 复产，行业开工负荷提升；需求方面，下游行业采购意愿偏弱，仍 主要以刚需补库为主，观望情绪浓厚。当前市场缺乏实际驱动，基 本面过剩逻辑仍存，预计纯碱期货价格仍将维持弱势震荡走势。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱期货市场呈震荡偏弱走势，国内纯碱装置运行恢复 使供应量维持高位，而下游采购意愿偏弱、成交活跃度不高， 叠加当前库存处于历史高位、供需格局偏宽松，预计价格仍 将维持弱势震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间1150-1300，可考虑 空仓观望。 n 本周策略建议 上周纯碱期货震荡偏弱，供应端开工率高、新增产能投产致 负荷提升，需求端刚需补库为主、观望浓厚 ...

2025.6.16-6.20 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，7月偏上涨。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存 国内外显性库存处于历史偏低水平，2025年国内产量存在天花板且几内亚供 应仍存在一定的不确定性，需求端政策宽松预期升温+中美贸易局势阶段缓和， 但短期而言，传统需求淡季及订单下滑成为拖累。 2 19800以下可以考虑适当增配库存。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看19600-20200。 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看20200-20800。 n 本周策略建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年6月第2周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 几内亚政局以及雨季等因素或对7月后到港量产生影响，近期国产矿石市场变化有限，北方山西、河南 | | | 两地矿石供应紧张局面延续，依旧主要受到政策面管控影响。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截至6月12日，中国氧化铝建成产能为11240万吨，开工产能为8805万吨，开工率为78.34%。部分氧化 | | | 铝企业结束检修恢复生产 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]

2025.06.09-06.13 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 工业硅现货价格持续下跌，西南地区进入丰水期，电价略有下调，生产成 本降低，目前只有大厂和国企稳定运行，整体开工略有下调，但整体供应 仍处于宽松阶段。下游多晶硅有机硅开工持续缩减，采购窄幅下降。供需 面支撑表现偏弱。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线 处于下行通道中。 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，库存压力大，产量预期增多，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 ...

2025.06.09-06.13 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 趋势判断逻辑 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 据Mysteel数据：第22周油厂大豆实际压榨量226.82万吨，开机率为 63.76%；大豆库存582.88万吨，较上周增加22.25万吨，增幅3.97%；豆 粕库存29.8万吨，较上周增加9.11万吨，增幅44.03%。大豆进口量持续 高位，油厂开机率显著提升，豆粕库存稳步回升，供应宽松预期对价格 构成压制。然而现货基差快速走弱，豆粕性价比优势或提高下游饲料企 业采购积极性，需求支撑下豆粕价格下跌空间相对有限，叠加巴西贴水 企稳支撑。综合来看豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡整理阶段。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空。M2509预计 维持宽幅震荡整理，运行区间：2850-3030，可考虑区间操 作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏多。M2509短期内 或 ...