T限公司 双焦周度数据 2025年09月12日 研究员: | 会典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 图表 1: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | से केंद्रिंग | 指标 | 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-12 | 环比 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 228. 84 | 240. 55 | 11.71 | | | 产量 | 45.72 | 46.6 | 0. 88 | | | 库存 | 623. 71 | 633. 29 | 9.58 | | | 库存可用天数 | 11.71 | 11. 29 | -0. 42 | | 全样本独立焦企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, the general sentiment is "oscillating weakly" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply increment for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, and EIA and IEA reports both reaffirmed the market's surplus pattern. The U.S. petroleum total inventory increased by 15 million barrels weekly, and the surplus inventory is spreading to developed economies [2]. - The chemical industry follows raw material fluctuations. The demand peak season characteristics are not obvious. The overall operating rate of the agricultural film industry downstream of plastics is still at a low level, and the polyester and styrene downstream industries have mixed performance in terms of operating rate and inventory [3]. - Investors should approach the chemical industry with an oscillating weakly mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. The OPEC monthly report showed a significant increase in OPEC+ production in August, and the IEA monthly report strengthened the global crude oil surplus expectation. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors causing short - term disturbances [8]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The resistance level of 3,500 for asphalt futures prices is gradually established. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in OPEC+ production, the deterioration of the U.S. employment data, and the decline in fuel oil demand expectations have led to a weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical upgrades may cause short - term price fluctuations [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a low valuation and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Olefins still have a drag, and methanol futures prices oscillate. There is a contradiction between the inland and port inventories. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - month, there may be opportunities for long - position in the far - month [26]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Under the loose supply - demand fundamentals, the futures market runs weakly and stably. The market is waiting for new positive factors [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Multiple new plants will be launched around October, which pressures market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [18]. PX - **Viewpoint**: It oscillates following raw materials and the macro - environment. The price oscillates narrowly, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The sales volume lacks continuous growth, and the enthusiasm for raw material inventory is insufficient. The supply is slightly increasing, and the downstream polyester sales have turned cold again [13]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The demand has not improved significantly, and there is a slight inventory build - up. The cost support is limited, and the downstream demand has not met expectations [20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: There is limited driving force, and it follows passively. The upstream raw materials oscillate, and the supply - demand drive is weak [22]. PP - **Viewpoint**: As the oil price declines, PP oscillates and falls back. It has reached a low point in June, with support at the previous low. The supply side still has an incremental trend, and the demand is slowly increasing [30]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows PP's short - term fluctuations. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, and the short - term macro - end may fluctuate [32]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: As the oil price weakens, plastic oscillates and declines. The oil price is under pressure, and the domestic measures to address over - capacity have limited substantial support. The downstream start - up is slow, and the supply side still has pressure [29]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory build - up, and the pure benzene price oscillates weakly. The supply surplus risk is increasing, and the market is trading on the expected import increment in October and inventory build - up [14]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The decline has暂缓, and the market oscillates. It has rebounded after a decline, but the medium - term outlook is still bearish. There is still significant inventory pressure in September - October [17]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak reality and strong expectation, PVC oscillates. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the micro - fundamentals are under pressure, but the valuation is not high [34]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has reached a short - term peak, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The short - term fundamental pressure is increasing, but the decline space is limited considering the far - month alumina production expectation [34]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.35 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 12 with a change of 10 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation, for example, the basis of asphalt is 77 with a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 64,460 [37]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 222 with a change of 51 [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [39][52][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "Oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the traditional peak season deepens, the failure of the building materials peak season has intensified the differentiation between furnace materials and finished products. Furnace materials are stronger than building materials due to strong real - demand and restocking expectations, and provide cost support for building materials. The intra - sector differentiation and overall price support are expected to remain [7]. - The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices, but rebar is expected to perform weaker than hot - rolled coils [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading volume of steel is weak, with rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The trading volume of building steel is weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. Due to shrinking profits, some steel mills have shut down for maintenance. The production of rebar has decreased, and demand has declined, with inventory pressure in Hangzhou. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have returned to pre - parade levels, with improved downstream purchasing sentiment and inventory destocking. The supply of the five major steel products has decreased while demand has increased, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace [8]. - **Outlook**: The steel inventory is moderately high, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: Port trading volume has increased. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil, which is expected to have little impact on annual shipments. The hot - metal production has recovered to over 2.4 million tons per day, supporting short - term demand. The port inventory has increased, the berthing inventory has decreased, and the in - plant inventory has slightly replenished, with the total inventory slightly decreasing and the overall inventory at a moderate level [9]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - festival restocking in the middle and late period. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand of the finished - product end needs further verification, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased, with the available inventory days at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished - product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.4 Coke - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of coke have both increased, with daily production reaching a three - month high and total inventory slightly increasing. Although the supply is becoming more relaxed, the current supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After the futures market has priced in two rounds of price cuts, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply of coke has recovered more than expected, but the hot - metal production has also recovered rapidly. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After two rounds of price cuts have been priced in the futures market, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream steel mills and the hot - metal production during the peak season [12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has basically recovered, with domestic coal mines resuming production and high - level imports from Mongolia. The demand for coking coal is high due to the high - level production of coke. However, after the previous restocking, the current procurement is mostly on - demand, and the spot market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the extent of coal - mine复产 [12]. - **Outlook**: After the parade, coal mines have quickly resumed production and are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. With the arrival of the downstream demand peak season and high - level coke production, the on - demand restocking will still support the coking coal price [13]. 3.6 Glass - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the domestic commodity market has weakened, and the fundamental logic has returned as the delivery approaches. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream lacks restocking ability. Although some upstream manufacturers have promoted sales by raising prices, the supply uncertainty has increased due to potential production - line ignitions and possible shutdowns in the Shahe area. The fundamentals are still weak, and the spot price decline may be limited, with a moderately high futures valuation [13]. - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but there are expectations of the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. 3.7 Soda Ash - **Core Logic**: The upstream inventory of soda ash has decreased, but the supply is still at a high level. The long - term supply pressure remains due to un - cleared production capacity. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, while the downstream of light soda ash has weak restocking sentiment. After the resolution of shipping issues, the mid - stream inventory has accumulated, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16][20]. 3.8 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: A new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers, and although the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price in the short term, the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic in the long - term [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the decline in raw - material costs [17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Core Logic**: The first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The supply has increased, and the demand from the metal - magnesium market is weak. The market supply - demand relationship has hidden concerns [4][18]. - **Outlook**: The stable cost of semi - coke and electricity provides short - term support for the ferrosilicon price. With peak - season expectations, the downward space of the futures price may be limited, but the price center is expected to decline in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-12 美国CPI符合预期，⻩⾦短线横盘蓄⼒ 周四贵⾦属价格整体横盘，盘⾯震荡蓄⼒。晚间公布的美国CPI数据符合 预期，同时周度初请失业⾦⼈数超预期⾛⾼，降息的阻碍被进⼀步扫清， 且市场也并未向衰退⽅向预期。隔夜美股再度⾛强，⼗年期美债收益率破 4%，⻩⾦由于买预期在前，价格进⼊震荡蓄⼒期，⽩银价格震荡偏强。 重点资讯： 1）美国8月未季调CPI同比升2.9%，预期升2.9%，前值升2.7%；季调 后CPI环比0.4%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。未季调核心CPI同比升3. 1%，预期升3.1%，前值升3.1%；季调后核心CPI环比升0.3%，预期升 0.3%，前值升0.3%。 宏观研究团队 2）美国上周初请失业金人数26.3万人，飙升至近四年来的最高水 平，远超预期的23.5万人，前值从23.7万人修正为23.6万人；四周均 值24.05万人，前值从23.1万人修正为23.075万人。至8月30日当周续 请失业金人数193.9万人，预期195.1万人，前值从194万人修正为19 3.9万人。 3）俄罗斯至9月5日当 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [8] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight downward bias" [9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are affected by overseas AI, leading to domestic computing power fluctuations. The market is event - driven, and the second - round upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend ETF + IM without additional positions [7] - The volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market ETF options has rebounded. There are two possible market paths, and the current trend strategy for the volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market is less stable. It is suggested to continue holding volatility strategies [2][8] - Attention should be paid to the issuance of new treasury bonds. The stock - bond seesaw and fund subscription and redemption may continue to affect the bond market, and caution is recommended for long - term bonds [3][11] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low and closed high with heavy trading volume. The TMT, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - bank finance sectors led the gains. Driven by two logics: OpenAI's agreement with Oracle on computing power procurement and the fermentation of pig production capacity regulation events. The CSI 500, with the largest weight of cyclical stocks, increased its positions by 18,900 lots. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend ETF + IM [7] Stock Index Options - Affected by the strong market, the trading volume of the option market increased by 57%, and the trading volume of IO increased by 93%. The risk preference rebounded, and the trading was concentrated on buying call options to chase the upward trend. There are two possible market paths, and it is recommended to continue holding volatility strategies [2][8] Treasury Bond Futures - Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The central bank's net injection of 794 billion yuan loosened the capital. The market expects the central bank to over - renew the 6 - month repurchase. The stock - bond seesaw affected the bond market, and attention should be paid to the issuance of new 2 - year and 7 - year treasury bonds [3][11] 2. Economic Calendar - It includes economic data such as China's export and import annual rates in August, CPI and PPI annual rates in China and the US in August, and M2 money supply annual rate in China in August [12] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The State Council approves a two - year comprehensive reform pilot on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. Ant Group emphasizes the balance between exploring the value of token economy and risk prevention. 32 projects are short - listed for the intelligent elderly - care service robot project. The purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be halved from 2026 to 2027 [13][14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data content is not fully provided in the text [15][19][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 11, most equity indices and CGB futures rose. Among commodity futures, slightly more products gained, while SCFIS(Europe) led the declines [11][14]. - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilots for the market - oriented allocation of factors within 2 years from the approval date. MOFCOM will encourage foreign investors to increase investment in the digital sector. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an will implement a more proactive and effective macro - economic policy. Chairman of the NDRC Zheng Shanjie will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [42][43]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 11, most equity indices and CGB futures rose. Among commodity futures, slightly more products gained, with SCFIS(Europe) leading the declines. In China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were silicon metal, coking coal, and Chinese jujube, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), rapeseed, and iron ore. In China's financial futures, all equity indices rose and most CGB Futures increased, but TL fell by 0.1% [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Coking Coal**: On September 11, coking coal rose 2.3% to 1141.5 yuan/ton. The peak season has arrived with strong overall support, and the market is fluctuating. Supply - side coal mines have mostly resumed production, and Mongolian coal customs - clearance remains high. However, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot market is under pressure [18][21]. - **Woodpulp**: On September 11, woodpulp rose 1.8% to 5016 yuan/ton. Bullish and bearish factors coexist, and price fluctuations are expected. The spot market has weakened, and the patterns of softwood and hardwood pulp are divided. Overall, the weak performance of woodpulp remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to wait and see [27][29]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Iron Ore**: On September 11, iron ore fell 0.8% to 795.5 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are sound, but the peak - season demand in the finished steel segment has not yet been verified, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply has decreased month - on - month, demand has short - term support, and inventory is at a neutral level [35][37]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilots for the market - oriented allocation of factors within 2 years, covering multiple regions. MOFCOM will promote the orderly expansion of opening - up in digital - related sectors and encourage foreign investment in the digital sector. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an will implement a more proactive and effective macro - economic policy. Chairman of the NDRC Zheng Shanjie will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [42][43].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-09-11 供应预期反复，新能源金属宽幅波动 新能源观点：供应预期反复，新能源⾦属宽幅波动 交易逻辑：近期锂矿供应预期反复，碳酸锂产量超预期回升，不过， 碳酸锂供需整体平稳；工业硅和多晶硅供需表现好于预期，多晶硅产 业政策有落地预期，但具体政策仍存不确定性。中短期来看，供应预 期反复和资金博弈放大了价格波动，新能源金属价格宽幅波动。长期 来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升； 锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：供应偏宽松，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格波动加⼤。 碳酸锂观点：矿⼭复产会议召开，碳酸锂重回基本⾯交易。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 ⼯业硅 ⼯业硅观点：供应偏宽松，硅价震荡运⾏ 信息分析： （1）截至9月10日，根据SMM数据，通氧553#华东9100元/吨，421#华东9400元/吨， 现货价格波动。 （2）最新百川国内库存445800吨，环比+2.3%；其中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-11 股市继续缩量，债市情绪偏空 股指期货：事件催化，超额收益持续性不佳 股指期权：⽇线仍是降波趋势 国债期货：债市情绪偏空 股指期货方面，事件催化，超额收益持续性不佳。周三沪指震荡收 平，继续缩量至2万亿元，市场交易围绕局部热点，超额收益的持续性不 佳。周二领跌的AI算力硬件股，周三集体反弹，而此前上涨的PEEK材料、 固态电池概念股跌幅居前，主要催化来自海外，其一是甲骨文预计2026财 年云基础设施营收增长77%，其二是微软达成174亿美元AI算力采购协议， 叠加工信部颁发卫星移动通信业务经营许可，推动通信、电子、传媒领 涨。另外，午间报道发改委将召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，催化"反内 卷"相关板块异动。由于利好聚焦在点状板块，难构成月度主线，市场等 待下一事件催化，高低切换盘整，获利盘止盈环境中，建议以哑铃结构应 对市场分歧，短期建议配置红利ETF+IM多单。 股指期权方面，日线仍是降波趋势。昨日现货市场波动放缓，期权端 交易型资金观望，昨日期权市场成交金额和前一个交易日基本一致。波动 率方面，昨日尽管盘中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US released its August non - farm payroll data, with only 22,000 new jobs added, falling short of the previous value and expectations. The slowdown in the US labor market is becoming more evident. The weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, and Trump's "recalibration" of policies is beneficial to gold. In the long run, the US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals further, with a weak US dollar pattern continuing [6]. - Domestic: In August, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, while the CPI declined. The anti - involution and trade - in policies have shown initial results. In the short term, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The market uses a dumbbell structure to handle market divergence, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend due to the decline in incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The hedging and defensive approach continues, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with concerns about the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence drive prices up. The short - term judgment is a sideways - up trend, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [8]. 3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The impact of production restrictions weakens, and the price is in a low - level sideways trend. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal production decreases more than expected, and port inventories increase slightly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: After the military parade production restrictions end, the first round of price cuts begins. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply drops significantly, and the spot price weakens. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession rises, putting pressure on copper prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The warehouse receipts increase again, and the price is under sideways pressure. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and the price continues to rise. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: The valuation repair is over, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot prices in South China and Shandong are at parity, and the futures price is in a downward trend below 3500. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is relatively bearish, and market sentiment is weak. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the price continues to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: As new grains are gradually put on the market, look for opportunities to short at high prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The improvement of fundamentals and policy expectations help the sector stabilize periodically. The rapid recovery of hot metal output after the parade boosts the demand for furnace materials, supporting steel prices. Steel enterprises' rapid resumption of production and frequent policy expectations on the supply - side jointly lead to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2]. - The short - term prices of most varieties in the black building materials sector are expected to oscillate. Although there are some supporting factors, there are also limitations and uncertainties in demand and supply [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The main futures prices of the sector oscillated strongly yesterday, and the night - session prices oscillated. The statements in the NDRC report triggered small fluctuations in the market. The resumption of production by steel enterprises and policy expectations on the supply - side led to the price stabilization of sector varieties [2] 2. Raw Material Analysis Iron Element - In terms of iron ore, port maintenance led to a significant decline in Brazilian shipments, but the impact on annual shipments is expected to be small. The current demand has returned to the level before the parade restrictions, supporting iron ore demand. However, the peak - season demand for finished products needs to be continuously verified, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices leads to low electric - furnace profits, but resources are still tight, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - The recovery of steel mills' imported ore consumption to the pre - parade level indicates the recovery of hot metal production. Steel mills still have restocking demand before the National Day, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating. The recovery of coal mines is slower than that of downstream hot metal, and safety accidents continue to disrupt the coal - mine production increase rhythm. Under this supply - demand pattern, coal - mine inventories are being depleted at a low level, and there is still restocking expectation downstream before the National Day, so the coking coal price is expected to be supported [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, a new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [4] 3. Individual Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is average, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are weak, especially for building materials. Although the cost side has support and there is restocking demand during the peak season, it is expected that the performance of rebar will be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils [8] Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports decreased month - on - month, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil. The demand has support in the short term as the small - sample hot metal output has recovered. The overall inventory level is moderate. The demand is expected to recover, and steel enterprises' inventories are at a low level, but the peak - season demand for finished products has not been verified, so the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8][9] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased this week. The pressure on finished product prices led to low electric - furnace profits, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - flow processes decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - The first - round price cut has been implemented, but the coking profit is still considerable, and the supply has basically returned to normal. After the parade, steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, and they maintain on - demand procurement. The coke supply will gradually become loose. With the support of high hot - metal production, steel mills still have restocking demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Coal mines have basically resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. The downstream steel and coking enterprises' procurement is cautious, and the upstream inventory is accumulating, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. After the parade, the production of coking coal and coke will gradually recover, and the downstream restocking on - demand will support the coking coal price [11] Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another wave of oscillations. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12] Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] Manganese Silicon - A new round of steel tenders has started, and the market is waiting and seeing. The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 400 yuan/ton month - on - month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers. In the short term, the cost side and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the medium - and long - term price has a large downward pressure [16] Ferrosilicon - The first - round inquiry price in September decreased by 330 yuan/ton month - on - month. The short - term cost side still supports the price, and the downward space of the futures price may be limited in the peak - season expectation, but the medium - and long - term price center will tend to decline [17] 4. Index Information - On September 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2222.49, down 0.11%; the commodity 20 index was 2487.89, down 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2232.18, up 0.10%. The steel industry chain index was 1999.51, with a daily decline of 0.18%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month decline of 4.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.16% [100][102]