投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-03-18 成本扰动叠加淡旺季切换，盘⾯表现偏 强 地缘冲突仍存在较⼤不确定性，煤焦价格跟随原油波动放⼤。铁矿⽯ 供给端扰动不断，部分现货品种流动性预期收紧。⽬前正值淡旺季切 换时期，旺季预期难以证伪，铁⽔产量仍有向上预期，成本端易涨难 跌，需继续关注地缘端及铁矿⽯供给端的扰动。 地缘冲突仍存在较大不确定性，煤焦价格跟随原油波动放大。铁矿石 供给端扰动不断，部分现货品种流动性预期收紧。目前正值淡旺季切 换时期，旺季预期难以证伪，铁水产量仍有向上预期，成本端易涨难 跌，需继续关注地缘端及铁矿石供给端的扰动。 1. 铁元素方面：在供应端扰动叠加地缘政治扰动持续的背景下，铁 矿难以定价基本面，短期预计震荡；中长期看铁矿高库存压力难以缓 解，整体仍维持宽松格局，若宏观扰动弱化则铁矿基本面压力较大， 中期铁矿表现预计震荡偏弱。短期废钢市场供需双弱格局边际改善， 需求恢复节奏略快于供给，基本面为价格提供一定支撑。 2. 碳元素方面：短期焦炭供需双增，铁水复产速度或更快，且成本 端价格有所上涨，焦炭现货支撑偏强，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - In the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, there are still policy expectations, Sino - US trade consultations are progressing normally, and geopolitical conflicts have great uncertainties. The supply side of iron ore is constantly disturbed, and the iron ore price has strong support. However, the fundamentals in the off - season lack highlights, and the upside drive from the real - world end is limited. The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuate more with crude oil, and the price of glass and soda ash is under pressure. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply side [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate; in the medium and long term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure of iron ore will be greater [4][11] - **Scrap steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for the price. In the short term, it is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices [4][13] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke increase, and the iron - making water production may recover faster. The spot price has strong support, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [4][5][16] - **Coking coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the high import of Mongolian coal brings pressure. The spot price is unlikely to rise sharply. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may be strong; if it eases, it is expected to oscillate [5][17] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese silicon**: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market remains loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is a risk of high - level valuation correction above the cost line [5][22] - **Silicon iron**: The current supply - demand contradiction of the silicon iron market is limited, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn to looseness. There is a risk of high - level price correction [5][23] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot improve continuously, high inventory will suppress the price [5][8][18] - **Soda ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [5][8][21] 3.5 Steel - The downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the cost has certain support. However, the steel inventory is high, and the upside of the price is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [10] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2607.75, down 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2943.75, down 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2578.45, down 0.05%. The steel industry chain index on March 16, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 2.01%, a 1 - month increase of 2.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [108][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Raw material issues are affecting domestic and international supplies, leading to a decline in the global styrene operating rate [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Styrene Situation - As of March 12, 2026, the domestic styrene operating rate was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32 pct compared to the previous period and 3.13 pct compared to the same period last year. The weekly output was 360.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 11.6 thousand tons from the previous period. An equipment in East China was shut down for planned maintenance, and equipment in North and East China made small load adjustments, resulting in an overall decline in output [1] Overseas Styrene Situation - As of March 16, 2026, the overseas styrene operating rate was 74.48%, a decrease of 0.66 pct compared to the previous period and 8.57 pct compared to the same period last year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past six years. In early March, a 370 - thousand - ton production capacity device of South Korea's YNCC reduced its load due to raw material issues [1] Global Styrene Situation - As of March 16, 2026, the global styrene operating rate was 73.11%, a decrease of 1.51 pct compared to the previous period and 6.10 pct compared to the same period last year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past six years [1]

原料问题影响国内外供应,全球开工率下降 2026/03/17 投资咨询业务资格: 册 尹伊君 证监许可【2012】669号 究 从业资格号:F03107980 投资咨询号: Z0021451 员 最新数据: 国内苯乙烯开工略降。根据隆众,截至2026年3月12日,国内苯乙烯开工率71.79%,环比-2.32pct,同比- 3.13pct。周度产量36.01万吨,较上期下降1.16万吨。华东一套装置计划内检修停车,华北和华东各有装置 小幅调整负荷,导致产量整体下降。(以上信息均来源于隆众) 韩国YNCC装置降负,海外苯乙烯开工略降。根据卓创及计算,截至2026年3月16日,海外苯乙烯开工 74.48%,环比-0.66pct,同比-8.57pct,处于近六年同比偏低水平。3月上旬,韩国YN0037万吨产能装置原 料问题全厂降至低负荷生产。（以上信息均来源于卓创） 全球苯乙烯开工处于偏低水平。根据隆众、卓创及计算,截至2026年3月16日,全球苯乙烯开工73.11%,环 比-1.51pct,同比-6.10pct,处于近六年同期偏低水平。 风险提示: 宏观政策落地效果不及预期;纯苯进口偏离预期;装置预期外检修或恢复; ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The market is pricing in the possibility of a sustained high - oil - price environment, increasing concerns about economic stagflation in the US in Q1. The overseas macro logic may shift from "soft landing" expectations driven by looser liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the transition from "inflation" to "stagflation". Although inflation data is favorable for stronger rate - cut expectations, rising oil prices make short - term policy paths more cautious [1] - Domestic macro: After the important meeting, the domestic macro situation enters the verification period of fundamental reality. This week's domestic data on exports, inflation, and finance are relatively good, increasing the probability of a "good start" in Q1. Exports have a strong start, core CPI continues to strengthen, PPI recovery rate is high, and corporate medium - and long - term loans provide significant support. The focus is on the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [1] - Asset views: Investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term and control the investment portfolio position. The previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals is downgraded to equal - weight, and TS and TF are relatively recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Morning Meeting Summary - **Financial sector**: Stock index futures show resilience throughout the day, with short - term judgment of oscillation; stock index options focus on call option defense, with short - term judgment of oscillation; treasury bond futures are disturbed by inflation concerns, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by rising oil prices suppressing rate - cut expectations, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Shipping**: The traffic volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the short - term judgment of container shipping on the European line is weakly oscillating [4] - **Black building materials**: There is a game between reality and expectations, mainly in an oscillating state. For example, steel has cost support, iron ore's shipping and arrival rhythm fluctuate, and coke and coking coal have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and basic metals continue to oscillate. For example, copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar index, and aluminum prices are strongly oscillating due to supply disturbances [4] - **Energy and chemicals**: Gulf oil - producing countries continue to cut production, and crude oil and chemicals remain at a high level and oscillate. For example, crude oil has a shortage expectation, and LPG supply is tightening [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils, and double - meal is adjusted at a high level. For example, corn futures are consolidating at a high level, and pig prices are weakening [5] 3.2 Financial Market Price Changes - **Stock indices**: On March 16, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are different [7] - **Treasury bonds**: The price changes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided, as well as the price changes of the US dollar index, US dollar intermediate price, etc. [7] 3.3 CITIC Industry Index Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, different industries in the CITIC industry index have different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes, such as the rise of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry and the decline of the non - ferrous metal industry [8][9] 3.4 Overseas Commodity Price Changes - On March 13, 2026, energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products in overseas commodities have different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil has a significant increase, while COMEX gold has a decline [10][11] 3.5 Domestic Main Commodity Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products in domestic commodities have different price changes. For example, the container shipping on the European line has a decline, while crude oil has a significant increase [12][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience high - level oscillations. Geopolitical factors are the main cause of the oil price increase, and the easing of the geopolitical situation will lead the oil price to return to the supply - demand relationship. The supply reduction supports the chemical futures prices, while the weakening demand drags them down. Overall, the situation is slightly in favor of the bulls [2]. - The crude oil market is expected to remain in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Other chemical products such as asphalt, fuel oil, and various petrochemical products also show different trends of oscillation, mainly affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: The shortage expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. - **Main Logic**: With the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil market faces a large supply gap. Persian Gulf countries are forced to cut production due to inventory pressure, and the number of in - transit cargo ships globally is decreasing. The later impact will gradually spread to the inventory reduction of crude oil - importing countries. The expected deviation mainly comes from the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of attacks on oil fields and terminals in the Middle East also challenges the supply. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The strength of fuel oil is transmitted to asphalt. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The decline in the asphalt - fuel oil price difference may lead to a significant reduction in asphalt refinery production. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [13]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive high - sulfur fuel oil back to a high level. - **Main Logic**: The current geopolitical tension, high import dependence, and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are pushing up the futures price. The tension in the Iranian geopolitical situation affects the export of fuel oil and natural gas in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Oscillate [14]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. During the oil price increase, its valuation has been significantly repaired. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high - sulfur fuel oil. The export tax - rebate rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to it. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and the limited substitution demand for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [15]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Under the contraction of the total supply and structural concessions, the supply of PX is expected to be tight. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is still intense, and international oil prices are at a high level. Refineries in Northeast Asia have reduced their production to varying degrees. The planned and unplanned losses of PX are increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in equipment and the downstream's ability to bear high prices. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. In the short term, the PX price will oscillate strongly under the support of cost and the impact of actual supply. In the medium term, the logic of buying at low prices remains, and the PX05 - 09 spread is expected to be in a positive spread at low prices. The PXN is expected to be in a wide - range adjustment of [250, 380] US dollars per ton [17]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in filament production exerts some pressure on TA, but the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, providing cost support. PTA follows the upward trend of raw materials. Traders are actively selling goods, and the spot basis is strengthening. PTA factories are also reducing production, and the supply is shrinking. Attention should be paid to the changes in the reduction scale of downstream polyester factories. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short term, and the price has stronger support at the bottom [17]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuations, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene is still dominated by geopolitical factors. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a tight supply of crude oil and Asian naphtha. Some refineries have reduced production. The downstream profits are acceptable, and the value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of domestic and foreign refineries may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene is advanced [20]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene, and styrene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is still dominated by geopolitical factors. The supply is expected to decrease due to equipment maintenance and production reduction. The downstream performance is acceptable, but the support for the price is weakening. The non - integrated profit is neutral to low, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance. There is an expected increase in exports. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, domestic and foreign production may be reduced, and export demand may increase [21]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in the production of oil - based plants is gradually emerging, and the supply is expected to be significantly reduced. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, and domestic ethylene - cracking ethylene glycol enterprises continue to reduce production. The load of domestic ethylene glycol has dropped to around 67%. The cost is supported by high oil prices. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve significantly from March to May, and the price fluctuates widely at a high level. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The price oscillates strongly in the short term. It is advisable to buy at low prices in the medium - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously in the short term. Attention should be paid to reducing positions when the EG05 - 09 spread is high [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, providing strong cost support. The domestic supply shortage and raw material supply interruption expectations impact the market again. The downstream is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and some yarn factories may consider reducing or stopping production due to the pressure of high - priced raw materials. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The short - fiber price follows the upward trend of upstream products, maintains an oscillating and strong trend in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support at the bottom. The price volatility is large, and cautious operation is required [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Supported by upstream costs, the spot of bottle chips is in short supply, and the price increase is significant. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost remains high, driving the price of polyester bottle chips to rise. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the supply - demand situation is tight, with a good overall fundamental situation. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of raw materials, the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced, and the position of buying PR and shorting TA can be considered in the short term [27]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 16, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The inland market atmosphere is strong, and the arbitrage window with the port market is opened. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Overseas, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, affecting the domestic import end. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market tends to trade geopolitical premiums, which are difficult to disappear in the short term. Although the futures price is dragged down by the weak fundamentals after reaching a high level, there is still room for an upward trend, and it should be regarded as an oscillating range [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The demand sentiment is positive, but policy constraints are significant, and urea oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On March 16, 2026, urea oscillated and consolidated. The supply is abundant, and the demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is improving. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The spot market is supported by the international market, but the mainstream enterprise quotations are stable under the policy constraints. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The current urea fundamentals are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, the support from agricultural demand is slightly weakening, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The spot price is restricted by policy price limits. The market price may rise slightly, and overall, it should be regarded as an oscillating and consolidating trend [32]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The refinery's production continues to decline slightly, and PE should be viewed with caution. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large supply gap in the crude oil market. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short term, and the refinery's production decline supports the near - month contracts. The spot price fluctuates widely, and downstream transactions are average. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The raw material end still provides support, but downstream demand is affected by price increases [34]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Downstream transactions are cautious, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large supply gap in the crude oil market. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are still under pressure, providing support for the price. The coal - based profits have been significantly repaired, and the overall production is decreasing. If logistics is continuously blocked, the production of oil - based refineries may further decline. The PP spot price fluctuates widely, and transactions are average. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The spot transactions are average, and the raw materials of crude oil and propane still provide support [35]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The refinery's production is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates widely. The downstream buying demand has increased, boosting market confidence. The enterprise inventory pressure has been relieved, and the quotations have slightly increased. The premium in the auction is obvious, and the high - end transactions have increased, driving up the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit is compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The production is decreasing, but the powder profit is still under pressure [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and the cost support and supply disturbance expectations of energy - chemical products are increasing. At the micro level, production has been reduced both at home and abroad, and the PVC inventory is being reduced. The overall supply is decreasing, the downstream production has improved, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not high. The overseas price has soared, and foreign merchants are on the sidelines. The supply of crude oil and naphtha is blocked, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC is rising. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The production reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the futures price, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the upstream raw material supply shortage [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The supply is decreasing, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and the cost support and supply reduction expectations of energy - chemical products are strong. At the micro level, the production reduction scale at home and abroad has expanded, the caustic soda export situation has improved, and inventory reduction is expected. The alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching a match, the inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong is being reduced, the non - aluminum production has entered the peak season, and the high - price chasing enthusiasm has decreased. The recent caustic soda export orders are good, and the supply is decreasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The production reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the futures price, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the upstream raw material supply shortage [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.74 US dollars per barrel, with a change of 0.51 US dollars per barrel; the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 1206 yuan per ton, with a change of - 92 yuan per ton [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different characteristics. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 404 yuan per ton, with a change of - 285 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt is 138,280 tons [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. also have corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 137 yuan per ton, with a change of 77 yuan per ton [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and detailed content for each variety is provided in the text, so it cannot be summarized in detail. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2607.75, with a change of - 0.63%; the commodity 20 index is 2943.75, with a change of - 1.02%; the industrial product index is 2578.45, with a change of - 0.05% [282]. - **Energy Index**: On March 16, 2026, the energy index is 1811.34, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a 5 - day increase of 5.07%, a 1 - month increase of 57.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 66.70% [284].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-03-17 观察⾏情可持续性 股指期货：全天呈现韧性 股指期权：短期维持防御思路 国债期货：通胀担忧扰动债市情绪 股指期货方面，周一指数先抑后扬，资源股回撤，抗通胀领域及半导 体领涨，市场全天量能不及2.4万亿，缩量观望情绪浓厚。尽管A股止跌， 但结合宏观敏感品种的走势（油价上行、黄金下跌），市场仍在计价滞胀 交易，强美元风险暂未消除，这为市场带来一些不确定性。从时间窗口来 看，财报季窗口尚远，目前主导矛盾仍是地缘以及油价走势的判断，中期 我们建议弱化地缘扰动，二季度市场仍有上行空间，但短期针对不确定性 应适当降仓，待波动率平稳之后寻机低位布局。 股指期权方面，期权市场成交量有所上升，细分来看各品种看涨期权 成交量占比相比上周回升，昨日日内走势一定程度使市场短期信心重建； 持仓量PCR各品种基本处于近期低分位，情绪仍在筑底。此外，昨日各品 种隐波指数也出现了大幅下降，市场对于波动预期相对降低。但是，以上 信号还需对持续性进行观察，短期考虑到行情可能反复，仍建议维持买权 防御思路，对整体持仓系统性风险进行保护。 国债期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly, with the platinum main contract down 3.49% to 532.80 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract down 4.23% to 398.55 yuan/gram [1] - The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has significantly suppressed platinum and palladium prices [1][2] - The outlook for platinum and palladium prices is expected to be volatile [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: The continuation of the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices due to risk - aversion sentiment. However, high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, suppressing platinum prices. If the US - Iran conflict persists, the US may enter a stagflation phase, further suppressing platinum price elasticity. Long - term factors such as the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar and benefit platinum price valuation, but the duration and intensity of the US - Iran conflict also have an impact [2] - **Outlook**: Volatile. High energy prices raise US inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, so platinum prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continued uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation of palladium is loosening, but there are still short - term supply disturbances, and currently it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metal sector [3] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The tightness of the palladium spot market has recently eased, and combined with macro - level suppression, palladium prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [3] Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity 20 index is 2973.96, up 0.65%; the industrial products index is 2579.71, up 0.86% [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2713.01. The daily decline was 0.15%, the 5 - day increase was 0.44%, the 1 - month increase was 0.60%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 1.01% [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and stagflation trading supports its medium - term allocation value. The price is affected by geopolitical risks, re - inflation concerns, and high - interest rate constraints. In the short term, it may maintain high - level oscillation, and if oil prices rise, it may remain resilient under the stagflation trading framework [1][2]. - Silver follows the rise of gold but has limited elasticity, and its volatility may continue to increase. It is in a dual tug - of war between the benefits of its precious - metal attribute and the damage to its industrial attribute. In the short term, it is expected to continue the high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: The continuation of the Middle East war, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the upward movement of energy prices strengthen the hedging and anti - inflation attributes of gold. The weakening of the US dollar provides marginal support for gold, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and compress the market's bets on the Fed's short - term interest rate cuts. The slowdown of US economic growth and the potential weakening of the US dollar's credit also support gold [2]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold may maintain high - level oscillation. If oil prices continue to rise, it may remain strong under the stagflation trading framework [2]. Silver - **Logic**: Silver is driven by the overall hedging sentiment of precious metals, but its industrial attribute makes it more sensitive to growth expectations. The high real - interest rate environment suppresses it, and it is in a dual tug - of war in the stagflation environment [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to continue the high - volatility oscillation pattern. If oil prices rise and global risk appetite falls, the gold - silver ratio may rise further; if the US dollar weakens and the market trades the medium - term easing expectation again, its elasticity may be released [3]. Commodity Index - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indexes include the Commodity Index (2624.35, +0.57%), Commodity 20 Index (2973.96, +0.65%), Industrial Products Index (2579.71, +0.86%), and PPI Commodity Index (1480.22, - 0.20%) [42]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On March 13, 2026, the index was 4394.13, with a daily decline of 0.72%, a 5 - day increase of 0.85%, a 1 - month increase of 1.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.90% [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical issues, policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying strategy for some varieties and also to be aware of various risks [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils and fats. In the short term, funds are bullish, but there are also potential negative factors. The outlook for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying strategy at the stage [1][2][5]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East affect market expectations and crude oil prices. Palm oil: Indonesia tightens exports and accelerates bio - diesel testing, but exports to some regions are affected. Soybean oil: The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be clear, and South American soybeans may have supply efficiency issues. Rapeseed oil: There will be a concentrated arrival of rapeseeds for crushing, and inventory is expected to accumulate [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: There is an increase in positions and a decline in price, and the double - meal market is adjusting. The outlook for soybean meal and rapeseed meal is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support below [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market expects China to increase the purchase of non - soybean US agricultural products, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is affected. Domestically, the decline of US soybeans in the outer market and the weakening of the impact of Brazilian shipping problems lead to an increase in positions and a decline in soybean meal. The low protein content of Australian rapeseed meal causes concerns about warehouse receipt delivery [7]. 3.3 Corn - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is firm, and attention should be paid to policy releases. The outlook is oscillating. In the medium - term, it is generally bullish [8][9][10]. - **Logic**: The price trend of corn in different regions is divided. The supply pressure is limited, and the downstream inventory is low. The increase in wheat supply and the expected improvement of new wheat growth conditions may affect the market [8][9][10]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, and the pig price is weakening. The outlook is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling hedging opportunity in the first half of the year and the reverse - arbitrage strategy in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply increases and the demand decreases. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. In the long - term, the production reduction process is not smooth, and it is expected that the pig price will bottom out and pick up in the third quarter [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The wide - range oscillating pattern is temporarily maintained. The outlook is oscillating [11][12]. - **Logic**: The short - term trading logic is affected by geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The market sentiment is weak, and there is a production increase expectation in Yunnan. However, the synthetic rubber provides support, and the fundamentals make the price easy to rise and difficult to fall [11][12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical logic remains unchanged, and the market is oscillating at a high level. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [13][14]. - **Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical situation affects the supply of butadiene, leading to a contraction in supply. Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [13][14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The sliding - scale tariff quota is implemented, which is beneficial to the outer market and has a small impact on the inner market. The outlook is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended for long - term allocation [14][15][16]. - **Logic**: The release of the quota is earlier and the quantity is increased compared with previous years. It stimulates foreign cotton imports, promotes the convergence of the price difference between the inner and outer markets, and has a limited impact on the inner market [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the domestic and foreign sugar prices are mainly affected by oil price fluctuations. The outlook is oscillating, and the domestic price range can be appropriately widened [16][17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the sugar market is expected to be in a weak - oscillating state. In the short term, the price may oscillate due to oil price fluctuations. High oil prices may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and then affect the sugar supply [16][17]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures market remains weak, and the market expects the industry conference to provide guidance. The outlook is oscillating [18]. - **Logic**: The market is affected by the potential impact of the US - Iran conflict and the increase in shipping costs. Although there is a seasonal recovery in demand in March, the supply - surplus pattern suppresses the price. In April, the price may be weaker [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating in a narrow range. The outlook is oscillating, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [19][20]. - **Logic**: Paper mills have the intention to support prices, but the shipment is limited. The supply and demand are expected to increase from March to April, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [19][20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the cost side, the logs are oscillating strongly within the range. The outlook is oscillating, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 820 yuan/cubic meter [21]. - **Logic**: The increase in shipping costs and exchange rate changes drive up the outer - market quotation, which in turn drives up the domestic spot price. However, the demand recovery is weak, and the market may be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs [21]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2607.75, a decrease of 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2943.75, a decrease of 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2578.45, a decrease of 0.05%. - The agricultural product index on March 16, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.69%, a 5 - day increase of 1.32%, a 1 - month increase of 5.52%, and an increase of 5.14% since the beginning of the year [183][185].