1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests investors approach the chemical industry with a "sideways to slightly bearish" mindset [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices have risen for three consecutive trading days. Investors are weighing various factors such as Trump's tariff threats on Russian oil buyers, the aftermath of Israel's attack in Doha, and the prospect of US interest rate cuts. French and German proposals to include major Russian oil companies in EU sanctions may also impact the crude oil market. China's August PPI decline narrowed, while the US PPI unexpectedly declined month - on - month, providing a reason for the Fed to cut interest rates, which could boost energy demand [2]. - The chemical sector has been in a sideways consolidation. Many chemical products have had a price fluctuation of less than 2% in the past week. The current contradictions are small, and valuations are reasonable. The traditional peak season has started, but demand recovery is slow, especially in the polyester and home appliance sectors. The chemical market hopes for price increases from winter stockpiling [3]. - For different products, the report provides specific views, generally suggesting a sideways to slightly bearish outlook, with attention to geopolitical risks and policy changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. EIA data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and future inventories face pressure from refinery operation peaks and OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are expected to be sideways to slightly bearish, with geopolitical factors as the main risk [7]. - **Asphalt**: The resistance level of 3500 yuan/ton for asphalt futures is gradually established. Supply - related issues have eased, and demand is not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread may decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical premiums have emerged, and fuel oil prices have risen with crude oil. However, demand expectations have deteriorated, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. Geopolitical impacts on prices are short - term [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations at a relatively low valuation [10]. - **Methanol**: Inland prices are firm, and methanol futures fluctuate. There are differences between inland and port inventories, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities [26]. - **Urea**: Under a loose supply - demand situation, the futures market is weakly stable. It is expected to be sideways to slightly bearish, waiting for positive factors [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Pre - sales of new plants suppress market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [20]. - **PX**: It fluctuates with raw materials and the macro - environment. Geopolitical factors support the cost, and supply and demand are relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to the support around 6600 yuan [12]. - **PTA**: Filament producers offer discounts, and there are rumors of POY production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to the support around 4600 yuan [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is strengthening, but downstream demand is average. It is expected to fluctuate with raw materials in the short term [23]. - **Bottle Chip**: There is limited driving force, and it follows the market passively. It is expected to fluctuate with raw materials [24]. - **PP**: Supported by previous lows and geopolitical factors in crude oil, it fluctuates. Supply pressure exists, and the impact of policies and demand in the peak season should be observed [33]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows PP fluctuations in the short term. The focus is on the polypropylene processing fee, which is currently reasonably valued [34]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Maintenance provides slight support, and it fluctuates. Supply pressure remains, and the effects of domestic policies and overseas demand need to be observed [32]. - **Pure Benzene**: Ports are expected to resume inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to be sideways to slightly bearish [14]. - **Styrene**: The decline has paused, and the market fluctuates. In the medium - term, it is still bearish due to inventory pressure, but there may be short - term rebounds [18]. - **PVC**: Weak current situation and strong expectations. It is expected to fluctuate. The impact of anti - involution policies and market sentiment should be observed [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached a short - term peak, and the futures market is cautiously bearish. The downward space is limited considering future alumina production [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [40]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided, along with their respective changes [281][283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 10, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures fell, and energy and chemical futures edged up, with lithium carbonate and polysilicon leading the declines [11][13]. - Trump stated that he is willing to impose substantial tariff hikes on China and India to force Russian President Putin to negotiate with Ukraine [4][40]. - In August 2025, CPI dropped by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI dropped by 2.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On September 10, in China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were silicon metal (up 1.6% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month), LPG (up 1.1% with open interest up 5.8% month - on - month), and fuel oil (up 1.1% with open interest down 2.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.9% with open interest down 3.0% month - on - month), poly - silicon (down 4.4% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), and RBD palm olein (down 2.4% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. - In China's financial futures, IH and IF rose, while IC and IM declined. For CGB Futures, the short - end saw a smaller drop, the long - end a larger drop, with TL falling by 0.9% [12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil - On September 10, crude oil increased by 0.6% to 486.2 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors continued to disrupt oil prices, but the rebound was lackluster. Israel's attack on Qatar caused disturbances, U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories accumulated last week, and OPEC+ decided to launch a new round of production increases in October [17][18][19]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Poly - Silicon - On September 10, poly - silicon decreased by 4.4% to 52885 yuan/ton. The correction was due to sentiment and capital - side adjustments. Market sentiment was high last week due to "anti - involution" policy expectations but returned to rationality as no clear plan was released. Some long - position holders closed positions as prices hit a new high [25][28][29]. - Fundamentally, poly - silicon output rebounded in August and was expected to remain high in September, then may decline due to industry self - regulation. Demand was resilient with marginal support from downstream production increases. The price trend depends on policy drivers [26][28][29]. - Starting from September 11, 2025, the trading fee standard for PS2511 contract and the intraday close - out trading fee standard were adjusted to 0.015% of the transaction amount [28][29]. 3.1.3.2 Lithium Carbonate - On September 10, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.9% to 70720 yuan/ton. Forward surplus and supply recovery expectations weighed on prices. There were still potential bullish factors, but prices may decline gradually in the future [34][37]. - A report said CATL's subsidiary planned to restart the Jianxiawo lithium mine, which may push prices below 70,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, there was a supply - demand gap but smaller than expected. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to rise in September [35][36][37]. 3.2 China News - Macro News - Trump said he was willing to impose substantial tariff hikes on China and India to force Putin to negotiate with Ukraine, but only if the EU did the same. China firmly opposed such actions [40]. - In August 2025, CPI dropped by 0.4% year - on - year (0.3% in urban areas, 0.6% in rural areas), with food prices down 4.3% and non - food prices up 0.5%. PPI dropped by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and it turned from a 0.2% month - on - month decrease to flat [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-09-09 美元维持弱势，基本金属走势趋强 有⾊观点：美元维持弱势，基本⾦属⾛势趋强 交易逻辑：8月主要经济体制造业PMI有所回升，8月非农新增就业低 于预期，美联储降息预期压制美元，弱美元有望提振基本金属。供需 面来看，反向开票问题使得废料供应收紧，再生金属冶炼减产风险加 大，考虑到9月是传统消费旺季，基本金属供需有望再度趋紧。中短 期来看，弱美元和供应扰动对价格有支撑，终端需求预期偏弱将限制 上方高度，预期基本金属整体维持震荡，关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会， 密切留意消费变化，长期来看，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在， 并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这对基本金属价 格有支撑。 铜观点：美联储降息概率提升，铜价⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：现货⾛弱库存累积，氧化铝价震荡偏弱。 铝观点：关注需求成⾊，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合⾦观点：关注税返退坡变化，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：库存延续累积，关注锌价⾼空机会。 铅观点：社会库存⼩幅累积，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：伦镍库存⼤幅增加，镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：成本⽀撑坚挺，不锈钢盘⾯ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-09 "反内卷"暂未落地，补库逻辑⽀撑板 块品种价格 上周尾盘因"反内卷"传闻⽽拉升，然⽽传闻暂未落地，⽇盘回吐此 前的部分涨幅，与此同时，阅兵结束后，下游需求的回升相对明显， 进⽽强化了旺季补库的逻辑，使得板块品种价格重获⽀撑，夜盘时段 盘⾯横向整理为主，其中铁矿需求有钢企复产⽀撑、巴西供给有港⼝ 检修扰动，导致价格相对表现偏强。短期来看，旺季补库逻辑仍有预 期，预计板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 上周尾盘因"反内卷"传闻而拉升，然而传闻暂未落地，日盘回吐此 前的部分涨幅，与此同时，阅兵结束后，下游需求的回升相对明显， 进而强化了旺季补库的逻辑，使得板块品种价格重获支撑，夜盘时段 盘面横向整理为主，其中铁矿需求有钢企复产支撑、巴西供给有港口 检修扰动，导致价格相对表现偏强。短期来看，旺季补库逻辑仍有预 期，预计板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面，港口检修导致巴西发运回落明显，预计对全年发运 影响较小，阅兵结束后铁矿需求有恢复预期，钢企库存低位，且中下 旬有节前补库的预期，基本面健康，但成材端旺季需求有待持续验 证，限 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to Amend the Foreign Trade Law, upgrading certain reform measu ...

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-09 股指期货方面，轮动切向低位科技概念和哑铃。周一沪指高位震荡， 量能维持2.5万亿元，双创风格出现退潮，创业板指走弱，风格向哑铃切 换。退潮有两大推动力，一是上周五美国公布的非农就业人数大幅低于预 期，海外交易衰退和9月降息预期，美股AI科技股集中回撤，外盘风险偏 好下降，映射拖累国内算力硬件股，导致通信行业领跌；二是上周五" 反内卷"板块再度异动，但政策传言均未得到印证，难催化月度主线交 易。资金向低位科技板块和哑铃结构轮动，机器人、PEEK材料概念股爆 发，小微盘换手率、量能占比提升。由于当前双创强势股过于拥挤，后续 风格层面存在均值回归的可能性，当下获利盘较多，建议以哑铃结构应对 市场分歧，短期建议配置红利ETF+IM多单。 股指期权方面，波动率放大的可能性较小。昨日现货端波动放缓， 期权端量能下降，较上周金额下降约30%。波动率方面，高波品种昨日波 动率下跌2%-3%绝对值水平，而50、300ETF期权波动率基本维持在21%左右 的绝对水平，年内分位数较高。但当前我们认为波动再度升高的概率偏 弱：1）隐历差逐渐收窄，从年内以及滚动250日波动率分位 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Most hot topic-related heat signal indices are at relatively high levels [5] - Historical experience shows that when the industry heat signal index is at a relatively high level, future excess returns may underperform [5] - Technology stocks are under pressure in the momentum dimension, which may drive quantitative funds back to the micro-cap style, and the future style is expected to switch to a dumbbell structure [5]

图说金融(20250904): 牛市中的调整空间有多大 1、历史经验显示, A股快速上行之后的调整幅度约在10%附近 风险提示: 仅作为数据展示,不构成策略建议 | | | | 历次快速上行之后的调整幅度 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上证综指 | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | Wind全A指数 | 持续时间 | | 20070529-20070705 | -16.59% | -15. 13% | -30. 36% | -33.93% | -21.05% | 27 | | 20090804-20090831 | -23. 15% | -25. 26% | -19.45% | -18. 40% | -22. 62% | 19 | | 20150126-20150206 | -9.08% | -8. 19% | -3. 89% | -1. 74% | -5. 91% | 9 | | 20161128-20170116 | -5. 30% | -6. 10% | -9. 59% | -13.16% | -8. 86 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the week ending August 29, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, with net crude oil imports rising by 434,000 barrels per day, and the estimated single - week crude oil production decreasing by 16,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.6% to 94.3%, indicating a continued weakening of demand in the refining sector. Diesel inventories resumed their upward trend, gasoline inventories declined significantly, and the total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products accumulated. The apparent demand for refined oil products decreased. Although single - week data has limited implications, there are still concerns about future crude oil inventories after the decline in refinery utilization [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 838,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 509,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 776,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.236 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US diesel inventory change: increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.786 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 796,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 293,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 215,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 316,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.102 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.394 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.423 million barrels per day, compared with 13.439 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.652 million barrels per day, compared with 21.614 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.117 million barrels per day, compared with 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US diesel apparent demand: 3.768 million barrels per day, compared with 4.141 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil imports: 6.742 million barrels per day, compared with 6.234 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil exports: 3.884 million barrels per day, compared with 3.81 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.869 million barrels per day, compared with 16.88 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery utilization rate: 94.3%, compared with 94.6% in the previous period [5]