1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 16, most equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IF rose 0.1%, and IC dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Bitumen, Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin For Bottles and Propylene, while the top three decliners were Silver, Palladium and SCFIS(Europe) [10][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 16, most equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. IF rose 0.1%, and IC dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, Bitumen rose 10.6% with open interest increasing 38.8% month - on - month; Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin For Bottles gained 7.4% with open interest increasing 15.7% month - on - month; Propylene advanced 3.7% with open interest decreasing 3.9% month - on - month. On the downside, Silver plummeted 6.3% with open interest increasing 2.2% month - on - month; Palladium dropped 4.2% with open interest increasing 2.1% month - on - month; SCFIS(Europe) slid 4.0% with open interest decreasing 1.7% month - on - month [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 16, the Crude Oil main contract rose 1.6% to 765.5 yuan/barrel (INE). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to supply reductions and heightened uncertainty over their duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trend strongly range - bound. The Strait of Hormuz traffic disruptions have reduced Gulf nations' exports, and the IEA's plan to release strategic petroleum reserves has limited impact. The crude oil market currently faces a significant supply deficit and is in an upward phase [17][18][19] 1.2.2 Bitumen - On March 16, the main contract of Bitumen rose 10.6% to 4464 yuan/ton (SHFE). Geopolitical disturbances remain strong, and bitumen futures prices fluctuate widely. Supply - side factors include disrupted Middle Eastern crude oil supply expectations, high fuel oil cracking spreads, and poor refinery margins. Demand is suppressed by high prices, and inventory year - on - year decline has narrowed. Bitumen's relative valuation against some oil products is low, but high relative to rebar [22][23][24] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On March 16, the main contract of Fuel Oil rose 1.8% to 4848 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuated widely, driven mainly by geopolitical disturbances. Supply is sensitive to geopolitical tensions, and demand's short - term focus is on the energy rally. After the sharp rally, its economic viability for power generation and as a feedstock has deteriorated. The core driver is the U.S. - Iran situation [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China - US economic and trade consultations started in Paris on March 15. Trump threatened to delay his China visit if China doesn't assist in the Strait of Hormuz escort, and China's Foreign Ministry said the two sides are maintaining communication. The US plans to announce a Strait of Hormuz "escort coalition". Trump threatened NATO allies to help keep the Strait open. At the end of February, M2 balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; M1 was 115.93 trillion yuan, up 5.9% YoY; M0 was 15.14 trillion yuan, up 14.1% YoY. In January - February, SVIA rose 6.3% YoY, national fixed - asset investment rose 1.8% YoY, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 2.8% YoY, and national real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY [39][40]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand expectation for new energy metals is weakening, and they are in a state of shock consolidation. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains tight, while that of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the price of lithium carbonate, but the actual supply - demand is tight. The polysilicon price is suppressed by inventory accumulation, and the price of industrial silicon is boosted by the expected cost increase. In the long - term, the polysilicon supply contraction path has changed, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, and the expected supply - demand surplus is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 16, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 8650 yuan/ton, in Yunnan is 9300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang is 8850 yuan/ton, in Yunnan is 9750 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of last week, the domestic inventory is 437350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%; market inventory is 182500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; factory inventory is 254850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. - **Production Data**: In February, the industrial silicon output is 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 is 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [5]. - **Export Data**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon is 59036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December is 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the price rebounds in the short term under cost support. The power price in the northwest region fluctuates, and the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran may push up raw material prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the southwest region is at a low level during the dry season, and the northwest plants' production is gradually recovering. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price will fluctuate under low valuation and cost support. In the long - term, the supply increase pressure will put pressure on the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 16, the average transaction price of N - type dense material is 45.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/kg [6]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: On March 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 10690 lots, with no month - on - month change [6]. - **Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon is about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December is about 25115.57 tons. The import volume in December is about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December is about 19051.01 tons [6]. - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon production in the southwest region is in the process of reduction during the dry season, and the output is at a low level. The demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt number is increasing, which exerts pressure on the price. In the long - term, the supply is also contracting, and the future supply - demand may tighten, with the price showing a wide - range fluctuation [8]. - **Outlook**: The polysilicon price will fluctuate widely in the long - term due to weak demand and low supply [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Position Data**: On March 16, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increases by 4.96% to 159620 yuan/ton, and the total position increases by 1663 lots to 618642 lots [9]. - **Spot Price Data**: On March 16, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4150 yuan/ton; the evening market price is 154500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1700 yuan/ton. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 151500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3750 yuan/ton; the evening price is 154500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1700 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreases by 10 lots to 36393 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The primary and terminal demands for lithium carbonate are differentiated. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively strong, and the demand is also good, maintaining a tight balance. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have boosted market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February are not optimistic, and the sales from March to April are crucial for the second - quarter supply - demand balance. If the power demand in March is still negative, the primary demand from April to May may be lower than expected [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index is 2607.75, a decrease of 0.63%; the commodity 20 index is 2943.75, a decrease of 1.02%; the industrial product index is 2578.45, a decrease of 0.05% [49]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On March 16, 2026, the index is 515.70, with a daily decrease of 1.52%, a 5 - day decrease of 2.77%, a monthly increase of 4.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report elaborates on the demand and practice of energy risk management, emphasizing the importance of hedging in energy trading and providing multiple application cases and participation models [8][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Energy Risk Management Demand - **Policy Support**: In October 2024, the "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision, Preventing Risks, and Promoting the High - quality Development of the Futures Market" proposed to enhance the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market in serving the real economy, expand the opening - up of the futures market, and support entities in risk management [9][10][11]. - **Necessity of Risk Management**: Energy industries face issues such as floating procurement costs and sales revenues, cost limitations in procurement, inventory, and sales management, contradictions between over - inventory in peak seasons and inventory reduction in off - seasons, and cyclical fluctuations in industry profits. Hedging can transfer price risks and reduce profit volatility [14][16][20]. - **Hedging Principles**: The futures and spot markets have the same supply - demand influencing factors, similar price trends, and price convergence on the delivery date. Holding opposite futures contracts to the spot position can hedge price risks. Basis affects the hedging effect [17][20]. - **Energy Hedging Tools**: Introduces various energy futures contracts, including crude oil (INE SC, Nymex WTI, ICE Brent), gasoline (RBOB, Mogas 92, etc.), fuel oil, and natural gas, detailing their contract specifications such as contract unit, minimum price change, contract months, trading time, and delivery method [24][25][27]. 3.2 Energy Risk Management Practice - **Application Cases** - **Refinery Locking Processing Profit Hedging**: A refinery sold a 3:2:1 crack spread futures contract in September and repurchased it in October, with a futures profit of $5.8 per barrel, plus the spot market crack profit [36][37][38]. - **Refinery Maintenance Hedging**: A refinery bought a 1:1 gasoline crack spread futures contract in January and sold it in March, with a futures profit of $14.2 per barrel, plus the spot market crack profit [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil Trader Hedging**: Customer A hedged the price and exchange rate of 150,000 tons of imported crude oil. After hedging, the inventory loss was about $3.34 million, and the exchange rate hedging profit was about 17.95 million RMB, with a hedging cost of $23,520 [44][45]. - **Participation Modes** - **Direct Participation in Overseas Market Trading**: Use instant messaging tools, emails, and TAS or SMM for trading. Brent crude oil uses cash settlement and TAS trading for smooth position transfer and to avoid risks [48][49][51]. - **Participation through TRS**: Suitable for domestic qualified institutional investors, settled in RMB. The customer pays a margin or option premium at the beginning and obtains the profit and loss of the derivative contract linked to overseas underlying assets at the end. Compared with direct overseas market trading, there are differences in participation currency, exchange rate, access requirements, trading time, and margin call [52][55][57]. 3.3 Related Research Frameworks The report lists research frameworks for various futures products in China, including energy and chemicals, agricultural products, metals, macro - economy, equity index, national bond, exchange rate, and cross - border arbitrage [61][63][65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the live hog main contract was 10,810 yuan/ton, with a -3.05% change compared to the previous trading day [2] - Since March, the spot price of live hogs has hit a new low. On the week of March 16, 2026, the national average selling price of commercial hogs was 10.06 yuan/kg, with a -15% monthly change and a -31% year-on-year change [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Analysis and Outlook - **Short - term Outlook**: The supply pressure in the near - term is still being realized, and the downward cycle will continue in the first and second quarters. Due to the high inventory of fertile sows in the first half of 2025, the supply pressure will persist until April. The increasing single - yield MSY has partially offset the decline in the number of sows, leading to an increase in the number of piglets born and delaying the inflection point of commercial hog supply. The supply pressure of commercial hogs may continue until August. In addition, the weight of live hogs in March increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and inventory needs to be digested [4] - **Long - term Outlook**: "Policy + loss" will drive production reduction, and the expectation will boost the far - month market first. Policy - driven production capacity reduction is supported by multiple meetings of relevant departments since 2025. Loss - driven production capacity reduction is due to the new low of hog prices in March 2026 and the resulting losses in breeding profits. It is estimated that the pressure of commercial hog slaughter may start to decline at the end of March 2026, but the situation at the piglet stage needs to be monitored [4][5] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For the unilateral strategy, in the first half of 2026, the pressure of high - level production capacity realization still exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies, and breeding enterprises can continue hedging. The third quarter may be the inflection point of the cycle bottoming out. In the fourth quarter, the production capacity reduction will be gradually realized, and the hog cycle will rise moderately, but the upside space is currently limited. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities below the cost line. For the arbitrage strategy, consider reverse arbitrage [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the live - hog main contract was 10,810 yuan/ton, with a - 3.05% change from the previous trading day [2] - Since March, the spot price of live hogs has hit a new low. On the week of March 16, 2026, the national average slaughter price of commercial hogs was 10.06 yuan/kg, with a - 15% monthly change and a - 31% year - on - year change [4] - In the short term, the supply pressure in the near - term is still being realized, and the downward cycle in the first and second quarters continues. In the long term, "policy + loss" will drive production cuts, and the far - month prices are expected to rise [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the live - hog main contract was 10,810 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Industry Analysis - Spot price: Since March, the live - hog spot price has hit a new low. On the week of March 16, 2026, the national average slaughter price of commercial hogs was 10.06 yuan/kg, with a - 15% monthly change and a - 31% year - on - year change [4] - Short - term supply: The supply pressure will continue until April due to the high inventory of breeding sows in the first half of 2025. The increase in the number of piglets will postpone the inflection point of commercial hog supply, and the supply pressure may continue until August. The inventory of live hogs in March increased both month - on - month and year - on - year and needs to be digested [4] - Long - term supply: Policy and losses will drive production cuts. The "anti - involution" policy in 2025 and the continued guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture in 2026 support the bullish sentiment in the far - month. The low pig price in March 2026 led to losses in breeding, which is conducive to capacity reduction [4] - Supply rhythm: The sow capacity began to decline in March 2025. It is estimated that the pressure on the slaughter of commercial hogs may start to decrease at the end of March 2026, and the situation at the piglet stage needs to be verified [5] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: In the first half of 2026, the pressure of high - level capacity realization still exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and breeding enterprises can continue hedging. The third quarter may be the inflection point of the cycle bottoming out. In the fourth quarter, the production cuts will be gradually realized, and the pig cycle will rise moderately, but the upside space is currently limited. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities below the cost line [5] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The report provides daily data on the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and shipping freight rates, including the number of ships passing through the strait, VLCC, refined oil, and container shipping freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strait Passage - On March 12, 3 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz (1 entering and 2 exiting), a decrease of 6 ships compared to the previous day. As of 13:00 on March 13, 1 liquid bulk carrier with the operating entity Al Rafedain Marine Services was passing through the strait in the outbound direction [2]. WL00 Daily Freight - On March 12, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were $10.41 and $9.2 per barrel respectively, with daily decreases of 25.3% and 17.3% [2]. Refined Oil Daily Freight - On March 12, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to $6.49 and $11.1 per barrel respectively, showing rebounds of 2.7% and 2.8% [2]. Container Shipping Daily Freight - As of 11:00 on March 13, the TCJ Tianjin + Persian Gulf basic port freight index was updated to 1726.87 points, a month - on - month increase of 83.2%. The freight rate was still missing, possibly due to short - term shipping stagnation. The freight rate from Tianjin to European basic ports was $2877 per FEU, and the index was flat compared to the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the western and eastern Mediterranean basic ports were $3735.22 and $4091.56 per FEU respectively, and the indices were flat [2]. - The TCI 40GP and 20GP quotes for various routes on March 12 are provided, including routes to the Persian Gulf, Europe, the Mediterranean, the Americas, Asia, and Africa [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily data on the passage and freight rates in the Strait of Hormuz, including the number of vessels passing through, and the freight rates of VLCC, refined oil, and container shipping [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strait Passage - On March 12, 3 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz (1 entering and 2 exiting), a decrease of 6 vessels compared to the previous day. As of 13:00 on March 13, 1 liquid bulk carrier operated by Al Rafedain Marine Services was exiting the strait [2]. VLCC Daily Freight Rates - On March 12, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were $10.41 and $9.2 per barrel respectively, with daily decreases of 25.3% and 17.3% [2]. Refined Oil Daily Freight Rates - On March 12, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to $6.49 and $11.1 per barrel respectively, with rebounds of 2.7% and 2.8% [2]. Container Shipping Daily Freight Rates - As of 11:00 on March 13, the TCJ Tianjin + Persian Gulf basic port freight rate index was updated to 1,726.87 points, a环比 increase of 83.2%. The freight rate was still missing, possibly due to short - term shipping stagnation. The freight rate from Tianjin to European basic ports was $2,877 per FEU, with the index unchanged from the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the western and eastern Mediterranean basic ports were $3,735.22 and $4,091.56 per FEU respectively, with the index unchanged [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation remains tense, with the Strait of Hormuz's closure threat and conflicts causing oil and gas price surges. The IEA has released a record - high strategic oil reserve, but the supply shortage persists. The chemical industry's supply - demand gap supports its valuation, and the overall energy and chemical sector is expected to continue in a strong and volatile pattern [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Releasing strategic oil reserves cannot change the shortage expectation, and oil prices will continue to be strong. - **Main Logic**: The supply shock due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz makes it difficult to change the shortage situation. Currently, oil prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and may fall back if the situation eases but will hardly return to pre - conflict levels in the short term. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [8] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are still strong, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price fluctuations. The profit of asphalt refineries is deteriorating, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive high - sulfur fuel oil back to a high level. - **Main Logic**: Tense geopolitical situations increase the price of fuel oil. In the long - term, the substitution of fuel oil power generation demand is a negative factor. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The expected growth of Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, and short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the trend of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors, its valuation has been repaired, and it has a certain advantage in export tax rebates. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, but its valuation is relatively low and follows the fluctuation of crude oil [12] PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost increase has escalated to a real supply shock, and multiple refineries in the Asia - Pacific region are facing force majeure. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions lead to high raw material costs and supply shortages. The PX supply is expected to shrink significantly in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. In the short term, the price will be supported by cost and supply shocks, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The volatility of upstream costs has increased, and the TA basis has remained relatively stable. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices, and PTA follows the upward trend of costs. The spot price has increased significantly, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term, and the TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain a positive spread logic [15] Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuations, and pure benzene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, but the situation is complex. Supply - side production cuts are expected, and downstream profits have improved. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Crude oil prices have fallen, and production cuts may increase the future de - stocking intensity [17] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Device maintenance and crude oil fluctuations cause styrene to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and the supply side may have more production cuts. The demand side is affected by export increases and improved profit margins. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. With the decline of crude oil prices, styrene may return to de - stocking in March [19] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The reduction of oil - based device loads is gradually emerging, and the supply is expected to shrink significantly. - **Main Logic**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of oil - based devices. Although some coal - chemical devices may delay maintenance, they cannot make up for the supply reduction. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. The short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [20][21] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are rising again, and the cost side fluctuates greatly. Downstream customers are mainly in a wait - and - see state. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. The price follows the upstream trend, and the processing fee has certain support [22][23] Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost hits the daily limit, and bottle chips follow the rise. - **Main Logic**: The upstream futures price rises to the daily limit, driving the price of bottle chips to rise. The current supply and demand are relatively tight. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. The absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation, and the processing fee support is enhanced [24][25] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price rises. The upstream inventory in the inland market is decreasing, but the demand has not improved. Geopolitical uncertainties affect imports. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market tends to trade geopolitical premiums, and the price has an upward space within the range [26] Urea - **Viewpoint**: Demand and sentiment are positive, and urea oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of the industry is stable at a high level. Agricultural demand decreases, while industrial demand recovers. The inventory pressure of enterprises is reduced. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The current fundamentals are relatively stable, and the market price may rise slightly [27] PE - **Viewpoint**: The spot price fluctuates widely, and PE should be viewed with caution. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile, and the release of strategic oil reserves may not change the shortage. PE imports may decrease if the Strait of Hormuz is affected. The downstream demand is affected by price increases. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The raw material end has support, but the downstream demand is affected [30] PP - **Viewpoint**: The continuation of maintenance boosts the price, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Similar to PE, oil prices and geopolitical situations affect the market. The direct impact on PP imports is limited, and the refinery profit supports the price. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The spot trading is average, and the raw material end has support [31] PL - **Viewpoint**: Oil - based refineries have an expectation of reducing the operating rate, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate widely. The market is rational, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state. The powder profit is under pressure. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. There is an expectation of a decline in the operating rate, but the profit is still under pressure [32] PVC - **Viewpoint**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase cost support and supply disturbance expectations. Upstream production cuts expand, and exports improve, which is expected to reduce inventory. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. The production cuts of chlor - alkali enterprises support the price, but attention should be paid to the relief of raw material supply shortages [34] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The supply continues to decrease, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase cost support and supply reduction expectations. The production cuts of chlor - alkali enterprises expand, and exports improve, which is expected to reduce inventory. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. The production cuts of chlor - alkali enterprises support the price, but attention should be paid to the relief of raw material supply shortages [34] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Data for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing changes in spreads between different months [37] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., is provided, along with their changes [38] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG are presented, showing their changes [39] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not fully detailed in the report, only the names of varieties (such as methanol, urea, etc.) are mentioned Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all show increases [279] - **Sector Index**: The energy index shows significant increases in daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date terms [280]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - In the short term, platinum prices lack a clear driving force and will maintain a volatile trend due to the intertwining of multiple and bearish factors. In the medium to long term, the weakening of the US dollar index will help release the elasticity of platinum prices, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2]. - Palladium prices currently follow the overall volatility of the precious metals sector. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, but short - term supply disturbances still exist. In the medium to long term, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish due to spot shortages and the weakening of the US dollar credit [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - On March 12, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 0.94% to 564.65 yuan/gram [1]. - The main logic is that the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. The weak US employment data in February has a weakened impact due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial to platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an additional impact [2]. - The outlook is volatile and bullish [2]. Palladium - On March 12, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 2.08% to 416.60 yuan/gram [1]. - The main logic is that there is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US has made an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Currently, it mainly follows the overall volatility of the precious metals sector [3]. - The outlook is volatile and bullish [3]. Commodity Indexes - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index of the CITIC Futures commodity index increased by 1.71%, 1.15%, 2.95%, and 1.53% respectively [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on March 12, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.13%, a 5 - day increase of 0.88%, a 1 - month decline of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.16% [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed again, and precious metals are oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, pushing up oil prices, which has led to a delay in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a strengthening of the US dollar index, jointly suppressing precious metals. The report expects short - term precious metals to maintain range - bound oscillations, and long - term optimism for gold is maintained [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Logic**: Gold prices oscillated narrowly and weakly during the day, suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar index and the postponed market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Middle East conflict has intensified, with WTI oil prices rising by more than 8% during the day. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant disruption in global oil supply, increasing inflation concerns and postponing the market's expectation of the Fed's first rate cut in 2026 from July to October [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran conflict, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US PCE data on March 13, and the Fed's interest rate decision on March 17 - 18. In the long term, the main line of the weakening of the US dollar's credit remains unchanged, and if the market switches to the stagflation trading logic, it will bring a phased upward impetus to gold prices [3]. Silver - **Logic**: Silver prices oscillated narrowly during the day, also suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar index and the postponed market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The short - term macro - driving factors for silver are the same as those for gold, facing the suppression of "rising energy prices - increasing inflation concerns - postponed interest rate cut expectations". Attention should be paid to the possible switch to stagflation trading and the pressure on its industrial attributes. The spot driving force for silver has weakened, with the持仓 of the COMEX silver 2603 contract continuously decreasing and the low delivery declaration volume in March, further alleviating the risk of a squeeze [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that silver will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term, and its long - term support is still significant [4]. Commodity Index - **Special Indices**: The commodity index was 2609.50, up 1.71%; the commodity 20 index was 2954.75, up 1.15%; the industrial products index was 2557.76, up 2.95%; the PPI commodity index was 1483.24, up 1.53% [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On March 12, 2026, the precious metals index was 4426.10, with a daily decline of 1.58%, a 5 - day increase of 1.32%, a 1 - month increase of 0.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.74% [45].