投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-04 恐慌情绪缓和，新能源金属止跌回升 新能源观点：恐慌情绪缓和，新能源⾦属⽌跌回升 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，恐慌情绪缓 和，碳酸锂和多晶硅大幅上涨；中期来看，政策预期反复，新能源金 属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格 重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔 高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价格重心。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0022534 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are mostly positive, with some expected to be "oscillating strongly" and others "oscillating". 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic sentiment in the base metals market has eased, and the base metals have stopped falling and stabilized [2]. - In the short term, the panic has been significantly released. With the stop - falling of precious metals and active downstream buying, there are opportunities for short - term low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. - In the medium term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply - side disturbances, metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. - In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply - side issues, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to tighten, and their prices are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to consider including copper concentrates in the strategic reserve [8]. - **Logic**: The previous risk - aversion sentiment in the market has recovered, and the strategic reserve value of copper is prominent. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly [8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On January 29, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons [8]. - **Logic**: The current spot average price has declined significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price has pressure above, so it is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment has recovered, and aluminum prices have stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. On February 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: The US January interest - rate meeting was neutral, and the short - term risk appetite decreased. But the macro - outlook is expected to be positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [8][9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium term [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On February 3, ADC12 was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short and medium terms [12]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of the non - ferrous sector has stabilized, and the decline of zinc prices has slowed down. - **Analysis**: On February 3, Shanghai 0 zinc had a discount of - 5 yuan/ton to the main contract, Guangdong 0 zinc had a discount of - 35 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc had a discount of - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons [12][13]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, but the macro - outlook was volatile. The supply of zinc mines is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. The short - term export of zinc ingots will continue, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. In the long term, the supply of zinc ingots will increase, and the demand growth is limited [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The decline of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, but the warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the lead price oscillates downward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,425 - 16,525 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,475 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. On February 2, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 39,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 33,439 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,021 tons [14][15]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has increased slightly, the original - recycled spread has decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead has decreased. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened, while those for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices are oscillating upward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,606 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 tons, unchanged month - on - month. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [16][17]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. However, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the 2026 nickel ore quota, which has adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel prices have recovered, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 had a premium of 415 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [17]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively firm, and the cost of stainless steel has support. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [18]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 10 tons to 7,105 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 427 tons to 8,097 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 3,262 lots to 92,297 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin ingots was 392,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply in Wa State may improve, while the supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt. However, the short - term price may fluctuate due to the strong US dollar, stable ore supply, and weakened bullish power [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the medium to long term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be vigilant [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2,374.28, a decrease of 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,707.14, a decrease of 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2,290.30, a decrease of 0.97% [145]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 3, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.15%, a decline of 7.34% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.65% in the past month, and a decline of 0.29% since the beginning of the year [147].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-04 短期过热风险有所释放，铂钯显著反弹 主要逻辑：近期贵金属市场在经历前期快速冲高后迎来显著回调，此次回 调已在一定程度上释放前期过快上涨所积累的过热风险，市场情绪逐步回 归理性。尽管短期受政策预期与监管措施影响，价格波动可能仍较剧烈， 但铂金的中长期供需结构与宏观逻辑并未发生根本改变，因此我们仍维持 多头观点。操作上可关注择机低吸做多机会，不过短线需警惕价格剧烈波 动风险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球 铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软 着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长期我们维持价 格震荡偏强预期。 钯观点：关税预期叠加现货供应偏紧，钯金显著反弹 主要逻辑：短期来看，钯价出现明显回调后，前期积累的过热风险有一定 程度释放。从长期来看，钯金整体供需结构趋于宽松，但在中短期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-04 淡季缺乏亮点，盘⾯上⽅存在压⼒ 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现承压。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒仍存，盘⾯表现偏弱。煤焦补 库⽀撑逐步转弱，但节前焦煤供应端存在收紧预期，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 玻璃供应端存在扰动，但供需过剩限制玻纯盘⾯上⽅空间。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现承压。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力仍存，盘面表现偏弱。煤焦补 库支撑逐步转弱，但节前焦煤供应端存在收紧预期，盘面震荡运行。 玻璃供应端存在扰动，但供需过剩限制玻纯盘面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，节 后需求存不确定性，现实方面供需两端仍有待验证，关注市场情绪变 化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾声，整 体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期仍 在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限，现 货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。国 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-4 ⾦银价格⼤幅反弹，警惕短线震荡⻛险 万得数据显⽰，贵⾦属价格在经历两⽇⼤幅下挫后迎来拉升⾏情，这⼀⾛ 势或主要受益于急跌后的低价买盘⼊场。同时，当前市场处于关键经济数 据真空期，也在⼀定程度上推升了避险情绪，进⼀步⽀撑贵⾦属价格。据 央视新闻报道，受美国联邦政府部分"停摆"影响，美国劳⼯统计局已明 确表⽰，原定于2⽉6⽇发布的1⽉⾮农报告将推迟公布。短线来看，贵⾦ 属⼤概率维持⾼波动格局，操作上建议保持谨慎。⼀⽅⾯，1⽉2⽇公布的 美国1⽉制造业PMI升⾄近四年新⾼，或对美元短期跌幅形成制约；另⼀ ⽅⾯，芝商所、上海⻩⾦交易所、及上期所近期相继宣布调整贵⾦属期货 交易保证⾦和涨跌停板等，叠加美伊核计划紧张局势有所缓和、⽇内美印 正式达成贸易协议等消息影响，可能会限制短期上涨空间、加⼤波动⻛ 险。 黄金观点：短线进入过热后的调整阶段，大概率呈现宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内COMEX金价涨超6%、重回4950美元/盎 司，沪金涨超4%、站上1100元/克；此轮拉升主要源于黄金在连续两 日急跌后的低价买盘入场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-04 ⻛险偏好有所回暖 股指期货：流动性踩踏缓和，⾼切低进攻科技补涨。 股指期权：情绪企稳，隐波回落。 国债期货：国债期货⻓端⾛弱。 股指期货⽅⾯，流动性踩踏缓和，⾼切低进攻科技补涨。周二日内出 现三大积极信号，显示流动性踩踏压力缓和，可向IM多单风格切换。一是 隔夜外盘金银铜铝的VIX见顶回落，显示流动性冲击峰值已过；二是日内 沪金、沪铜、沪铝等商品价格企稳，暗示单边抛压缓和；三是市场对沃什 政策进行重估，实际落地难度高于预期，缩表担忧缓解。隔夜美股积极反 弹，乐观情绪向A股传导，两市量能持平，未见抛压放大。往后市看，我 们关注补涨方向，风格或从周期切向科技。虽然通胀回升、供需缺口等商 品中期逻辑不变，但成交额占比视角，有色行业的拥挤度已创3年新高， 而TMT拥挤度处于历史中等水平，结合历史上2月多以成长板块领涨为主， 高景气主线内部切换，科技补涨的空间更大。综上，周一提到的"有色金 属降波和价格企稳的积极信号"已出现，故仓位切换至IM多单，ETF投资 者可关注双创指数。 股指期权⽅⾯，情绪企稳，隐波回落。周二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 3, 2026, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities declined with non - ferrous metals leading the rises [10][12][13] - Short - term copper prices are volatile due to macro disturbances but have a favorable medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook [16][21][22] - Tin prices have strong downside support in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term volatility risks [26][28][30] - Crude oil prices dropped, and the market is in supply - surplus, with the future trend depending on the U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [33][34][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 3.8% and IM rose 2.9% [10][12] - CGB futures: TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.10% [10] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were Palladium (8.6% rise, 4.3% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (6.6% rise, 4.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and SCFIS(Europe) (5.2% rise, 1.3% month - on - month open - interest increase); top decliners were Silver (16.7% decline, 10.4% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Tin (6.7% decline, 7.5% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and Crude Oil (4.9% decline, 12.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Copper - On February 3, the front - month contract of copper rose 2.6% to 104,500 yuan/ton (SHFE) [16][21][23] - Macro: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to a stronger dollar and copper price correction [17][21] - Supply - demand: Supply disruptions increased, long - term processing fees were at a low, squeezing smelters' profits; demand is currently weak but expected to be tight in the long run [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Tin - On February 3, the front - month contract of tin dropped 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton (SHFE) [26][29][31] - Supply: Issues in Wa State, Indonesia, and DRC affect supply; mineral - end supply tightens and smelter capital pressure increases [27][29][30] - Demand: Semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors drive demand growth [27][30] - Risk: Short - term price volatility due to a strong dollar, stable supply, and weakened long - side momentum [28][30] 3.1.3.2 Crude Oil - On February 3, the front - month contract of crude oil dropped 4.9% to 449.4 yuan/barrel (INE) [33][36][38] - Geopolitical: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing the geopolitical premium [33][36] - Fundamentals: Global inventories rose, Kazakhstan's supply recovered, and refined - oil inventories faced pressure [34][36] - Outlook: Supply is in surplus; future prices depend on U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [35][36] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Shanghai launched the acquisition of second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui Districts to meet talents' "job - housing balance" needs [41] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the Ag(T + D) contract's margin from 26% to 23% and the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [42]

日报公司 供需存改善预期,多晶硅价格有所修复 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 今日多最硅价格大幅回升。根据万得数据，多品硅主力合约上涨超8%，重回50000元/吨，此前在反垄断担忧影响下，多磊硅反内卷"预明出现动摇，叠加近明美元指数走强、风险资产普遍 间间，多磊疏价格阶段性承压。今日市场债等有所缓和，且多晶硅供需存在边际改善迹象。一方面，根固硅业分会消息，头部企业主动停产以消化库存，供应端压力得到进一步缓解；另一方 面,部分硅料企业重新展现挺价意愿,现货价格对盘面形成一定支撑。 基本面情况 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z0021453 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 投资咨询号:Z0022425 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 从基本面来看，供应端方面，1月多磊硅供应进一步回落。根据驻业分会消息，当前头部企业已全面停产，部分企业办存在不同程度减产计划。从排产来看，硅业分会预计2月多最品产量进 -5下滑至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 需求碳方面，多最硅生产与同期硅片企业排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度有 ...

信期货有限公司 2026年02月02日 IC Futures Company Limited 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 二、电解铝 三、铝合金 一、氧化铝 （1）提我的钢铁网，2月2日固产矿价格为491元 吨，环比0元 /吨，2月几、《1）据我的钢铁网，2月2日电解铝现货均价为23723元 /吨，环比-92元／（1）提我的钢铁网、2月2日生铝价格为1730元/吨，熟 铝价格为17750元/吨,环比-700元/吨。 吨;升贴水为-220元/吨,环比-10元/吨。 内亚进口矿价格61美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 据我的钢铁网,2月2日ADC12价格为23300元/吨,环比-400元/吨。 (2) 据上期所,2月2日期货库存为150459吨,环比+5388吨。 (2) 据阿拉丁,1月30日现货价格指数为2610元/吨,环比0元/吨。 (3) 据我的钢铁网,2月2日铝棒加工费为21元/吨,环比+60元/吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月2日期货库存为67725吨,环比-481吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月2日期货库存为182201吨,环比+11097吨。 氧化铝基本面观测指标 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 图表 2: 几 ...

| 41 中信期货 CITIC Futures | | 海外扰动暂息, | 甲醇回归基本面显著下行 | 2026/02/02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨家明 | | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 2012】669号 | | 研 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | | | ਸ | | | | | | 陈子昂 | | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | | 投资咨询号:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | | 甲醇: 2026年2月2日甲醇主力合约跌幅3.92%,收于2252元/吨。 近期中东局势再度缓和,叠加美国天气回暖当地天然气价格回落。外盘甲醇成本支撑减弱。海外扰动暂缓下,沿海甲醇回归偏弱 ...