板块逻辑： 路透数据显示原油仍处于库存压力显现、供应仍偏过剩格局下的地缘 溢价摇摆阶段。强预期对纯苯、苯乙烯持续形成支撑，在化工品中表现偏 强。短期PVC存"抢出口"、国内供应端政策预期提振，财联社报道称印 尼煤炭出口扰动，亦对PVC形成支撑，但基本面压力未扭转，盘面或先扬 后抑，整体偏震荡。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：沥青原料供应扰动有望缓解 高硫燃油：燃油期价跟随原油走强 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：港口库存重回去库，海外局势偶有波折，甲醇区间震荡 尿素：收单好转情绪升温，尿素震荡整理 乙二醇：近端到货偏多，价格承压运行 PX：价格止跌企稳，商谈回暖，PX短期震荡整理 PTA：强预期弱现实，价格区间整理 短纤：下游放假停车，需求清淡 瓶片：库存结构优化，瓶片效益维持强势 丙烯：现货压力不大，PL震荡 PP：节前下游心态谨慎，PP回落后震荡 塑料：上游开工小幅提升，塑料回落后震荡 苯乙烯：季节性累库或开启，但苯乙烯利润不易压缩 PVC：煤炭进口扰动，PVC反弹谨慎 烧碱：需求阶段改善，烧碱暂观望 展望：美伊关系动向支撑原油价格，化工震荡思路对待。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦升级，互相大幅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-5 ⾦银冲⾼回落，短线震荡延续 ⽇内⾦银价格冲⾼后震荡回落，回吐部分涨幅，主要受美伊和俄乌地缘紧 张局势升级、以及美国政府暂停部分"停摆"等影响。当地时间2⽉3⽇， 美军在阿拉伯海击落伊朗⼀架⽆⼈机，同⽇俄军出动70余枚导弹、450 架 ⽆⼈机袭击乌克兰，推升市场避险情绪；此外，同⽇特朗普在⽩宫签署政 府拨款法案、结束政府部分"停摆"。4⽇晚间公布的美国1⽉ADP就业⼈ 数、ISM⾮制造业PMI均不及前值，⼀定程度上提振市场降息预期。预计 短线⾦银价格仍维持宽幅震荡，⽩银操作建议谨慎；近⽇地缘局势升级叠 加美国就业数据⾛软对贵⾦属形成⽀撑；但当前⾦银市场波动率仍处于⾼ 位，波动⻛险较⼤，⽩银端尤为明显。（数据来源：万得；新闻来源：央 视新闻、中新⽹） 黄金观点：短线大概率呈现宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价冲高回落，COMEX金价一度 站上5100美元/盎司，沪金一度站上1100元/克；主要受益于美伊、俄 乌地缘局势在和谈前生变推升的避险情绪，然而投资者信心仍偏脆 弱。据央视新闻、北京日报报道，2 月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-5 天胶反弹，其它偏震荡 逻辑：昨日商品情绪演继续回暖，天胶同样跟随小幅走高，整体依旧维持 多头趋势。前期的上涨主要是宏观氛围驱动，并无基本面变化，所以昨日 回落也不存在基本面的变化。目前来看近一个月运行区间上移，前期压力 位成为支撑位。当前交易逻辑我们认为或维持宏观影响为主。当前胶价基 本面相对偏弱，但预期尚可，所以也存在提前于基本面发生边际变化前开 始上涨的可能。目前基本面具体来说，海外供应季节性上量相对顺利，上 游供应目前仍相对充裕。而需求端来看，节前轮胎企业逢低采购，虽对现 货形成一定支撑，但总体并未出现大批量集中补库的情况。而当前最明面 的利空为较快的累库。但在资金炒作预期的背景下，盘面暂时易涨难跌。 展望：基本面变量有限，但当前资金关注度继续上升，盘面维持震荡。 风险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：⽣柴税收抵免政策发布，油脂⼩幅反弹 蛋⽩粕：购销清淡，双粕延续震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：供需宽松，现货回调 天然橡㬵：多头情绪延续 合成橡㬵：⾼位震荡 棉花：节前窄幅 ...

Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 China Futures Monthly Report 中国期货运行月报 2026/02/04 More English Reports on 【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】 https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Gui Chenxi 桂晨曦 CFA PhD Qualification No. F3023159 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0013632 投资咨询号 Important Notice: This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only a ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大类资产总体反弹，能源化工小幅回落 ——中信期货晨报20260204 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-02-03 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 炉深300期货 | 4653 | 1.25 | -1. 23 | -1.23 | 1.16 | 1.16 | | | 上证50期货 | 3033 | 0. 8 | -1.33 | -1.33 | 0.26 | 0. 26 | | | 中证500期货 | 8282 | 3.71 | -0.96 | -0. 96 | 12. 48 | 12. 48 | | | 中证1000期货 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-04 地缘扰动油价延续⾼波动，烧碱价格趋 弱关注上游减产⻛险 路透数据显示，美国上周API原油库存大幅下降1107.9万桶，此外汽 油累库柴油去库，寒潮影响有所显现。地缘局势对油价持续形成扰动，路 透报道2月3日美籍油轮遭伊朗武装船只逼近，美国击落一架靠近"林肯 号"航母的伊朗无人机，地缘担忧再度升级，路透报道特朗普表示美国将 对印度关税降至18%，以换取印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，对俄油后期供应 形成威胁。总体来看，俄罗斯及伊朗因素导致原油地缘溢价持续摇摆，关 注后续美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗斯石油购买进展。 板块逻辑： 路透及阿格斯报道国内地炼购买伊朗及加拿大原油以替代委内瑞拉原 油，重质原料重构过程中沥青成本提升的预期迎来兑现期，路透显示美国 已批准向委内瑞拉供应稀释剂，全球重油供应有望逐步宽松。纯苯及苯乙 烯受后期春检去库预期支撑震荡偏强，隆众资讯显示伊朗甲醇装置重启， 但路透显示美伊局势仍存利多风险，烧碱价格趋弱后上游减产风险增大， 大多数能化品存在预期层面的阶段性支撑。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-04 恐慌情绪缓和，新能源金属止跌回升 新能源观点：恐慌情绪缓和，新能源⾦属⽌跌回升 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，恐慌情绪缓 和，碳酸锂和多晶硅大幅上涨；中期来看，政策预期反复，新能源金 属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格 重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔 高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价格重心。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0022534 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are mostly positive, with some expected to be "oscillating strongly" and others "oscillating". 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic sentiment in the base metals market has eased, and the base metals have stopped falling and stabilized [2]. - In the short term, the panic has been significantly released. With the stop - falling of precious metals and active downstream buying, there are opportunities for short - term low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. - In the medium term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply - side disturbances, metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. - In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply - side issues, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to tighten, and their prices are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to consider including copper concentrates in the strategic reserve [8]. - **Logic**: The previous risk - aversion sentiment in the market has recovered, and the strategic reserve value of copper is prominent. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly [8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On January 29, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons [8]. - **Logic**: The current spot average price has declined significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price has pressure above, so it is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment has recovered, and aluminum prices have stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. On February 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: The US January interest - rate meeting was neutral, and the short - term risk appetite decreased. But the macro - outlook is expected to be positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [8][9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium term [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On February 3, ADC12 was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short and medium terms [12]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of the non - ferrous sector has stabilized, and the decline of zinc prices has slowed down. - **Analysis**: On February 3, Shanghai 0 zinc had a discount of - 5 yuan/ton to the main contract, Guangdong 0 zinc had a discount of - 35 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc had a discount of - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons [12][13]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, but the macro - outlook was volatile. The supply of zinc mines is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. The short - term export of zinc ingots will continue, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. In the long term, the supply of zinc ingots will increase, and the demand growth is limited [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The decline of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, but the warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the lead price oscillates downward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,425 - 16,525 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,475 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. On February 2, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 39,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 33,439 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,021 tons [14][15]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has increased slightly, the original - recycled spread has decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead has decreased. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened, while those for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices are oscillating upward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,606 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 tons, unchanged month - on - month. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [16][17]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. However, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the 2026 nickel ore quota, which has adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel prices have recovered, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 had a premium of 415 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [17]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively firm, and the cost of stainless steel has support. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [18]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 10 tons to 7,105 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 427 tons to 8,097 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 3,262 lots to 92,297 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin ingots was 392,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply in Wa State may improve, while the supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt. However, the short - term price may fluctuate due to the strong US dollar, stable ore supply, and weakened bullish power [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the medium to long term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be vigilant [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2,374.28, a decrease of 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,707.14, a decrease of 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2,290.30, a decrease of 0.97% [145]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 3, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.15%, a decline of 7.34% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.65% in the past month, and a decline of 0.29% since the beginning of the year [147].