Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Most products are expected to have an oscillatory trend, and some are expected to show a weakening or strengthening trend in the medium - to - long term [1][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - specific lows [6]. - **Protein Meal**: Double - meal continues its oscillatory trend. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Corn**: The market maintains a tight balance. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish [9][11]. - **Hogs**: Pig sources are abundant, and prices are falling. The short - to - medium - term outlook is oscillatory and weakening, while the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [1][10][11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment on the disk has weakened, and the rubber price has temporarily broken through the support level. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The disk is slowly moving down. If crude oil continues to rise, the disk will remain strong in the short term [14]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is correcting and testing the lower support. The outlook is oscillatory and strengthening, and corrections may be opportunities for long - positions [15]. - **Sugar**: Thailand's sugar production has increased year - on - year. In the short term, domestic and foreign sugar prices will oscillate following oil prices. In the long term, there is still upward pressure on prices [15][16][17]. - **Pulp**: The weakness of softwood pulp remains unchanged, and futures continue to decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [18]. - **Offset Paper**: As pulp weakens, offset paper prices are moving down. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [19][21]. - **Logs**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment, log prices are weakening. In the short term, the disk will oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, it will operate within a range [22]. 2. Key Data of Each Product - **Hogs**: On March 18, the national average hog price was 10.02 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of - 0.3%; the closing price of hog futures (active contract) was 10,475 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 2.06% [1][10][11]. - **Protein Meal**: On March 18, the international soybean trade premium quotes were 229 cents/bu for US Gulf soybeans, 213 cents/bu for US West soybeans, and 140 cents/bu for South American soybeans. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 231.08 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of - 63.29 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 2,382 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 0.17% [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber at Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: On March 18, the Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract closed at 15,210 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 205 yuan/ton [15]. - **Sugar**: On March 16, the Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract closed at 5,343 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 63 yuan/ton, or - 1.17% [15]. - **Pulp**: The price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [18]. - **Offset Paper**: On March 18, the daily market price of 70g white peony offset paper in Shandong was 4,450 yuan/ton [19]. - **Logs**: On March 18, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/m³, and the main contract of logs closed at 806 yuan/m³, with a decrease of 0.68% [22]. 3. Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2,581.98, with a decrease of 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2,916.20, with a decrease of 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2,557.35, with a decrease of 0.31%. The agricultural product index was 970.26, with a daily decrease of 0.38%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 4.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.99% [185][187].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's hawkish stance in the March meeting, including maintaining interest rates, raising growth and inflation forecasts, and slightly revising up the long - term neutral interest rate, has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Precious metals have entered a stage of high - volatility adjustment, shifting from being dominated by "safe - haven premiums" to a situation where "safe - haven support remains, but interest rates and the US dollar impose stronger constraints" [1]. - Gold is currently in a stage where "safe - haven support and interest - rate suppression" coexist. Short - term trends may feature high - level adjustments and mood swings. Its medium - term allocation value remains if the market's pricing of stagflation intensifies, but it may face further valuation pressure if US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise [2]. - Silver is likely to continue high - volatility adjustments in the short term. Its performance depends on the marginal changes in the US dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market turns to stagflation trading and the risk appetite for industrial metals stabilizes, its elasticity relative to gold may recover, but the recovery pace may be slower during the Fed's hawkish phase [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Market Overview - The Fed's March meeting sent hawkish signals, causing the market to reduce bets on rate cuts within the year. As a result, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices and putting pressure on silver [1]. Gold Analysis - **Logic**: The Fed's policies are not loose as it maintains the median of one rate cut this year while raising GDP and PCE forecasts and the long - term interest rate center. Powell's remarks on oil - price impacts on inflation and the need for restrictive interest rates have weakened rate - cut expectations, directly suppressing gold. However, due to ongoing Middle - East tensions and energy - supply risks, there is still buying support for gold [2]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will experience high - level adjustments and mood swings. If oil prices rise and affect growth, the market's stagflation pricing may strengthen, enhancing gold's medium - term value. If US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise, gold may face more valuation pressure [2]. Silver Analysis - **Logic**: In a hawkish Fed environment with a strong US dollar and volatile risk assets, silver is more elastic and has larger回调幅度 than gold. Oil - price shocks may drag on silver's industrial attributes if they suppress global demand. The current market trading theme makes silver more vulnerable to capital re - balancing [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver will likely continue high - volatility adjustments in the short term. Its performance depends on the US dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market turns to stagflation trading and industrial - metal risk appetite stabilizes, its elasticity relative to gold may recover, but the recovery may be slower [3]. Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial products index was 2557.35, down 0.31% [40]. - The precious metals index on March 18, 2026, was 4226.30, with a daily decline of 0.84%, a 5 - day decline of 4.51%, a 1 - month decline of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.51% [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped, with New Energy Metals leading the decline. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol, Ethylene Glycol, and Fiberboard, while the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, and Chinese Jujube [10][12][13]. - Gold remains in high - level consolidation with solid medium - term support. It may trade in a high range in the short term and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][18][19]. - Silver's upward momentum has slowed, and volatility may remain elevated. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the near term, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][24][25]. - Tin supply risks remain elevated, and tin prices still have bottom support, but are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term due to weak macro sentiment and supply improvement expectations [28][30][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped. New Energy Metals led the drop. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, Methanol rose 3.3% with open - interest increasing 7.9% month - on - month, Ethylene Glycol gained 1.1% with open - interest increasing 0.1% month - on - month, and Fiberboard advanced 1.1% with open - interest decreasing 58.6% month - on - month. The top three decliners were Poly - Silicon (down 5.1% with open - interest increasing 1.4% month - on - month), Lithium Carbonate (down 4.4% with open - interest decreasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Chinese Jujube (down 2.8% with open - interest decreasing 9.7% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Drop 3.2.1 Gold - On March 18, the Gold main contract dropped 0.2% to 1113.52 yuan/g (SHFE). Middle - East tensions, energy infrastructure attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions provide safe - haven and inflation - hedge premiums. High oil prices heighten inflation risks and dampen Fed rate - cut expectations, weighing on gold in the short term. However, gold's medium - term allocation value is prominent, and Asian demand offers downside support. In the short term, it may trade in a high range, and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][17][19]. 3.2.2 Silver - On March 18, the Silver main contract dropped 2.4% to 19980 yuan/kg (SHFE). It is supported by geopolitical safe - haven demand and inflation expectations but has weaker financial attributes than gold. Short - term performance is more sensitive to risk sentiment and interest rate expectations. Current high - interest - rate expectations constrain its valuation. If stagflation pricing deepens, its volatility may remain higher than gold. In the near term, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][23][25]. 3.2.3 Tin - On March 18, the Tin main contract dropped 2.6% to 370000 yuan/ton (SHFE). Supply risks remain high, and tin prices have bottom support, but there are no short - term drivers due to macro headwinds. Supply is expected to improve as Wa State restarts mines and Indonesia raises its production target, while the DRC situation keeps supply risks high. Demand from the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. Overall, tin prices are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term [28][29][31]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - Trump has confirmed the postponement of his visit to China, and China and the US will maintain communications on this matter [34]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has rolled out a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign investment projects with a planned total investment of $13.4 billion, including logistics projects for the first time [34]. - The Iranian President has confirmed the death of Ali Larijani [34]. - Trump has said that the US should consider withdrawing from NATO [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives outlooks for each commodity: - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillation. Cost support and strong broadleaf pulp are positive factors, while abundant liquidity suppresses prices. The futures are expected to remain volatile [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation. With high uncertainty in the Middle - East situation, high - running crude oil, and potential cost increases for vegetable oils, a strategy of buying at stage - low prices is recommended [6]. - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation. Market sentiment is weakening, and there is a need for technical adjustment after price increases. Geopolitical instability provides support at the bottom [7]. - **Corn**: Oscillation. In the short - term, there may be callback pressure, but in the medium - term, it is more likely to be a long - position allocation based on a tight annual balance sheet [10]. - **Hogs**: Oscillation with a downward bias. In the first half of the year, a short - selling hedging strategy is recommended. Prices are expected to bottom out and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation. Fundamental variables are limited, and the market will maintain a volatile pattern [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation with an upward bias. The market follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [15]. - **Cotton**: Oscillation with an upward bias. A long - position allocation at low prices is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [15]. - **Sugar**: Oscillation. Although the global sugar market is in a supply - surplus situation in the 25/26 season, sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices in the short - term [16]. - **Double - Gum Paper**: Oscillation. After the holiday, supply and demand are expected to increase, but the driving force is weak, and it will operate within a short - term range [20]. - **Logs**: Oscillation. The increase in foreign - market quotes drives up domestic spot prices. There is strong support at the bottom and obvious hedging pressure at the top, and it will operate within a range [22]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Paper Pulp**: The price dropped significantly yesterday. There is no new negative news, but the fundamental pressure is significant. The port inventory of domestic softwood pulp is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The "Golden March" peak season may end early. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to weaken further, but cost support limits the downward space. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy in the short - term [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The futures prices are highly sensitive to the Middle - East situation and crude oil prices. There are both positive and negative factors in the soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed oil markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the risks of crude oil decline and the expected difference in biodiesel policies [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, the expected increase in China's non - soybean agricultural product purchases from the US and the postponement of high - level talks have put pressure on US soybeans. Domestically, the decline in inventory and firm spot prices, along with geopolitical disturbances, have led to a narrowing of the decline in the futures price. In the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors, and the double - meal market will oscillate [7]. - **Corn**: The price is weakly operating. The increase in the arrival volume has led to a slight decline in prices. The supply pressure is limited, and the downstream inventory is low. It is necessary to follow the game between farmers' selling rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm. In the short - term, there may be callback pressure, and in the medium - term, it is more likely to be a long - position allocation [9][10]. - **Hogs**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is falling. In the short - term, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is weak. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still high. In the long - term, the supply is expected to decrease gradually at the end of the third quarter, and the price may rise moderately [10][11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is in a sideways - oscillation pattern. The Middle - East geopolitical situation has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weakening, and there is a need for adjustment. However, the high - running synthetic rubber provides support, and the market is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market is operating at a high level. The Middle - East geopolitical situation has led to a shortage of butadiene supply, and the market is easy to rise and difficult to fall as long as the geopolitical situation remains tense [15]. - **Cotton**: The release of the sliding - scale tariff quota for cotton imports has led to a strong rebound in the outer market and an oscillatory adjustment in the inner market. In the long - term, both the outer and inner markets are expected to strengthen, and a long - position allocation at low prices is recommended [15]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In the long - term, the global sugar market is in a supply - surplus situation, but high oil prices may reduce the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and tighten the sugar supply [16]. - **Double - Gum Paper**: Affected by the raw material end, the price is weakening. In March - April, the market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the price will rise. In May, the price may fall. It is recommended to operate within the 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton range [20]. - **Logs**: Affected by shipping costs and the US dollar exchange rate, the outer - market quotes have increased, driving up the domestic spot price. The market is oscillating strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the demand is not strong, and the market will be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Paper Pulp**: The price of softwood pulp in Shandong has dropped. The fundamental pressure is significant, and it is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy in the short - term [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The futures prices are sensitive to the Middle - East situation and crude oil prices. There are positive and negative factors in different oil markets [5]. - **Protein Meal**: The international and domestic markets have different influencing factors, and the double - meal market will oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Corn**: The price is weakly operating, and the supply and demand situation needs to be followed [9]. - **Hogs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is falling [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is in a sideways - oscillation pattern, and the Middle - East geopolitical situation has a negative impact on downstream demand [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market is operating at a high level, and the supply of butadiene is in short supply due to the geopolitical situation [15]. - **Cotton**: The release of the sliding - scale tariff quota has affected the outer and inner markets, and a long - position allocation at low prices is recommended in the long - term [15]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the long - term supply is in surplus [16]. - **Double - Gum Paper**: Affected by the raw material end, the price is weakening, and the market is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20]. - **Logs**: Affected by shipping costs and the US dollar exchange rate, the outer - market quotes have increased, and the market is oscillating strongly in the short - term [21]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index on March 17, 2026, was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%. The commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%. The industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51% [183]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On March 17, 2026, the agricultural product index was 973.93. The daily decline was 0.72%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.01%, the increase in the past month was 4.96%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 4.38% [185].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that more energy infrastructure has been damaged, and crude oil and chemicals continue to oscillate strongly. The geopolitical situation has expanded, with more energy infrastructure damaged, including the suspension of operations at the UAE's Shah gas field and disruptions at an Iraqi oil field and an important UAE port. The polyolefin industry shows a pattern of strong raw materials and weak products, which is also a microcosm of the current chemical chains. Crude oil is leading the chemical industry to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: There is a continued expectation of scarcity, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a large supply gap in the crude oil market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [3][6]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support has increased, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating widely. The geopolitical situation affects oil prices, and the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated, with a large expected decline in refinery operations [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical support remains, and high - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitical tensions drive up prices, but in the medium and long term, the substitution of fuel oil power generation demand is a negative factor [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates at a high level. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline and green energy substitution, but currently has a relatively low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol is oscillating within a range. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market tends to trade geopolitical premiums [23]. - **Urea**: Commercial reserves are being released in a concentrated manner, and urea is moderately weak. Supply is at a high level, and demand has some uncertainties [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in the load of oil - based plants is gradually reflected, and supply is expected to be significantly reduced. The cost is supported by high - priced crude oil, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [16]. - **PX**: Under the contraction of total supply and structural concessions, the supply of PX is expected to be tight. The supply in the second quarter is tight, and attention should be paid to device changes and downstream price tolerance [11]. - **PTA**: Polyester production cuts put some pressure on PTA, but the cost support makes the price have strong downward support. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with mostly rigid - demand transactions. The price follows the upstream and oscillates strongly, with some support for processing fees [19]. - **Bottle Chips**: The intraday trading has become lighter, and the transaction price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw materials and fluctuates, and the overall fundamentals are good [21]. - **Propylene**: The refinery operation rate is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure, with PL oscillating [30]. - **PP**: Supported by the raw material end, PP is oscillating. The raw materials have support, but the spot trading is average [29]. - **Plastic**: The refinery operation rate continues to decline slightly, and PE should be viewed with caution. The raw material end has support, but downstream demand is affected by price increases [28]. - **Styrene**: The supply and demand of styrene are favorable due to geopolitics, and styrene is oscillating strongly. Supply may be reduced, and there is an expected increase in exports [15]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. The reduction in production by chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, but attention should be paid to the relief of upstream raw material supply [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is decreasing, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. The reduction in production by chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, and exports are improving [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 4.31, change 0.14), Dubai (M1 - M2: 9.2, change - 0.4), etc. [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis - 319, change 85, warehouse receipt 97880 tons) [36]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 170, change - 33), 1 - month TA - EG (1647, change 4) [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific detailed data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2591.86, with a change of - 0.61%; the commodity 20 index is 2926.66, with a change of - 0.58%; the industrial product index is 2565.21, with a change of - 0.51% [276]. - **Energy Index**: On March 17, 2026, the energy index was 1766.12, with a daily change of - 2.50%, a 5 - day change of + 12.07%, a 1 - month change of + 54.60%, and a year - to - date change of + 62.54% [278].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand expectation for new energy metals is weakening, and they are in a state of volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate remains tight, but the weak sales of electric vehicles at the beginning of the year have weakened consumption expectations. The supply - demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the price of lithium carbonate, while the actual supply - demand of lithium carbonate is tight. The loose supply - demand of polysilicon has led to continuous inventory accumulation, suppressing the price, and industrial silicon has risen due to the expected increase in cost. In the long - term, the expected path of polysilicon supply - side contraction has changed from administrative clearance to market - based clearance, and the polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but the demand expectation is also high, and the expected surplus of supply - demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to cost - side support, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - As of March 17, the price of Tongyang 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton [6]. - As of last week, the domestic inventory was 437,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%; the market inventory was 182,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the factory inventory was 254,850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [6]. - In February, the industrial silicon output was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [6]. - In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the silicon price has rebounded in the short term under cost support. The electricity price in the northwest region fluctuates, and an increase will directly raise the cost. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran may push up the prices of raw materials such as coal and petroleum coke, providing cost support for industrial silicon. On the supply side, the operation rate in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The large - scale factories in the northwest reduced production at the end of January, and the number of operating furnaces has stabilized after the increase. In the future, the operation rate of silicon factories in the northwest is expected to recover, and the operation rate in the southwest will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long - term over - supply pressure. On the demand side, the pressure of polysilicon inventory consumption is high, some silicon material factories continue to carry out maintenance and suspension of production, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; the organic silicon enterprises continue to hold up prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is weakly stable; the demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloy has limited boost [6]. - **Outlook**: Under low valuation and cost support, the silicon price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the changes in cost - side support caused by raw material price changes. In the long - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are still under pressure due to the increasing supply [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is at a high level, and the polysilicon price is under pressure [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - On March 17, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 45.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/kg [7]. - On March 17, the latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,910 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 780 lots [7]. - In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, it is currently the dry season, and the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest is still in a state of production reduction, and the overall polysilicon output is at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak, the production schedule of silicon wafers is still low, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is also increasing, putting pressure on the price. Overall, the weak demand drags down the short - term price trend of polysilicon, and the spot price of polysilicon has been continuously adjusted recently. However, in the long - term, considering that the polysilicon supply is also contracting simultaneously, and leading enterprises are strengthening integration and mergers, the long - term supply - demand of polysilicon is expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation trend [9]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the price trend of polysilicon, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation trend in the long - term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand driving force weakens, and lithium carbonate fluctuates [10]. - **Information Analysis**: - On March 17, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.69% to 155,320 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 2,248 lots to 620,890 lots [10]. - On March 17, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,150 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 156,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 152,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 156,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts on that day increased by 72 lots to 36,465 lots [10]. - **Main Logic**: There is a differentiation between the initial and terminal demand for lithium carbonate. Although the supply - demand in March is still strong, the subsequent performance of the terminal remains to be observed. In the first quarter of 2026, the supply remains relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production reduction, the overall level is high; at the same time, the demand performance is good, and downstream enterprises are actively stocking up after the price correction, and the supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and the social inventory has decreased. The strong demand performance in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have significantly boosted market sentiment, but the sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to February is not optimistic and needs to be further verified in March and April, which is the key to affecting the supply - demand balance in the second quarter. If the power demand in March is still negative, there is a relatively high risk that the initial demand from April to May will fall short of expectations, and corresponding risks need to be guarded against. In summary, the current supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. At the same time, geopolitical events in the Middle East may trigger market transactions for energy substitution, and the problem of the ban on exports in Zimbabwe has not been resolved; however, the power - end demand is not optimistic, and the sales volume from March to April may continue to decline. Therefore, the short - term price fluctuates, waiting for further driving forces [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, but there are signs of weakening demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index includes the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index, with values of 2591.86 (- 0.61%), 2926.66 (- 0.58%), and 2565.21 (- 0.51%) respectively [49]. - **Sector Index**: For the new energy commodity index on March 17, 2026, the daily increase was + 0.58%, the increase in the past 5 days was - 1.12%, the increase in the past month was + 3.08%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was + 1.77% [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market is under pressure, but the adjustment is expected to be controllable. The adjustment of stock index futures is tentatively considered controllable; the stock index option market is in the process of bottom - building sentiment, and short - term tail risks should be focused on; the bond market is supported by the loose capital situation [1]. - For stock index futures, on Tuesday, the equity market declined unilaterally, with the All - A index falling by more than 1.5%. The telecommunications, electronics, and military industries led the decline, while banks and insurance rose against the trend. The reasons for the decline are financial sector fund diversion and concerns about tail risks due to geopolitical conflicts. The attitude towards the decline space is relatively optimistic, and the operation is mainly to hold the bottom position and look for opportunities to replenish positions later. The end of March and early April are the observation windows [1][6]. - For stock index options, the underlying market opened high and closed low yesterday, and small and medium - cap stocks suffered a large intraday decline. The trading volume of the option market remained high, and the proportion of call option trading volume increased marginally, which is contrary to the market trend. The market is in the emotional bottom - building stage, and short - term call options should be bought to prevent tail risks [2][6]. - For treasury bond futures, the treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The price of the T main contract first declined and then rose. Geopolitical conflicts and oil price fluctuations affect the bond market through inflation expectations, while the increasing motivation of allocation funds and the loose capital situation support the bond market. The cost - performance of bond allocation may rise again [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The view is that the adjustment is controllable. The logic is that the equity market declined on Tuesday, and the reasons for the decline are financial sector fund diversion and concerns about tail risks. The attitude towards the decline space is optimistic. The operation suggestion is to hold the IM bottom position [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The view is that the market is in the process of bottom - building sentiment and short - term tail risks should be focused on. The logic is that the underlying market opened high and closed low, and the proportion of call option trading volume increased marginally. The suggestion is to buy options for defense [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The view is that the capital situation supports the bond market. The logic is that the treasury bond futures rose across the board, affected by geopolitical conflicts, inflation expectations, and the loose capital situation. The operation suggestions include a trend strategy of being cautiously bullish, a hedging strategy of paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, a basis strategy of paying attention to ultra - long - term basis opportunities, and a curve strategy of paying attention to the convergence opportunity of the 30Y - 10Y spread [8]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the report. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the report. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the report.

Group 1: Market Performance - On March 17, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.27% to 552.70 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 2.30% to 407.75 yuan/gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Analysis - **Core View**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and platinum prices fluctuate. The US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metals, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. In the long run, a weakening US dollar is beneficial for platinum price valuation, but the US - Iran conflict also has an impact [2] - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict continues, and the resulting risk - aversion supports precious metal prices. High oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations and a delay in Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. If the US - Iran conflict lasts long, the elasticity of platinum prices will be significantly suppressed. In the long run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar, which is favorable for platinum price valuation [2] - **Outlook**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate as high energy prices raise US inflation expectations and delay Fed rate - cut expectations [2] Group 3: Palladium Analysis - **Core View**: There is no obvious driver for palladium, and its price follows the fluctuation of platinum [3] - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, there is continuous uncertainty. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation for palladium is loosening, but there are still short - term supply disturbances [3] - **Outlook**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate as the tightness of the spot market has recently eased, and there is macro - level suppression [3] Group 4: Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2591.86, down 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, down 0.58%; the industrial products index was 2565.21, down 0.51% on March 17, 2026 [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic outlook is negative, and base metals are under pressure to fluctuate. The short - term high - oil - price environment leads to a negative macro outlook, and base metals are generally under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply issues, and the medium - term focus is on the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - **View**: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, which are expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 60.02 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February this year, the US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year. - **Logic**: The increase in energy prices and the rise of the US dollar index due to the Iran conflict put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down [5]. Alumina - **View**: The price of alumina strengthens in the short term and is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2733.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 405450 tons, an increase of 3611 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the supply - demand balance has improved but is still slightly in surplus. The Middle East issue affects the demand for alumina, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. The recent mine - end disturbances strengthen the price [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply disturbances, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot premium was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 134.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US economic data shows a structural divide, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the conflict, and the Indonesian supply is restricted. The demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is still accumulating. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [7][8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the price of ADC12 was 24600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the cost support is strengthened [9][10][13]. Zinc - **View**: The US - Iran war has not eased, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate downward. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and the inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 23.62 million tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US - Iran conflict and rising oil prices lead to concerns about economic slowdown and a weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc ore is increasing, and the domestic supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward trend [11][12]. Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound, expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9925 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 lead ingots was 16400 - 16500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16450 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots was 8.01 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The spot discount is expanding, and the profit of secondary lead smelting is improving, leading to an increase in production. The demand is in the traditional peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory may still accumulate, but the cost support is strong [13][14]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57247 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared to the previous day, and the LME nickel inventory was 283740 tons, a decrease of 174 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's balance expectation. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [14][15]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 53962 tons, an increase of 1188 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the strong price of nickel iron. The production in February decreased due to the Spring Festival, but is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [17][18]. Tin - **View**: The spot trading is dull, and tin prices fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8715 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 322 tons to 11673 tons. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is expected to increase as the Wa State restarts production and Indonesia raises its production target. The demand in the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, but the short - term price is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation [18]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: On March 17, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%; the industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51%. - **Special Index - Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [144][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level consolidation, with mid - term support still in place. The market is in a re - balance stage between "geopolitical risk - aversion support" and "high - interest rate expectation suppressing the upward slope". Physical and allocation demand still support precious metals [1][2] - Silver's follow - up rise rhythm has slowed down, and its volatility may still be relatively large. It is affected by both geopolitical risk - aversion and inflation expectations, but its financial attribute is weaker than that of gold, and its short - term performance is more disturbed by risk preference and interest rate expectations [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Middle - East situation, energy infrastructure attacks and transportation blockage in the Strait of Hormuz provide risk - aversion premium and anti - inflation support for gold; rising oil prices increase inflation risk, and the market's expectation of the Fed's significant interest rate cut this year has further converged, and the high - interest rate environment restricts the short - term gold price; the market has shifted from simply trading the interest rate path to also trading growth slowdown, fiscal and monetary stimulus expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, and the mid - term allocation value of gold as a store - of - value asset is still prominent; post - holiday continuous increase of Chinese gold ETFs and the premium of Shanghai over the international market indicate that Asian allocation demand is still resilient, supporting the lower limit of the gold price [2] - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the market will continue to play games among risk - aversion, inflation and interest rate constraints. In the mid - term, if the energy shock continues and drags down growth expectations, gold is still expected to attract funds in the stagflation trading framework; if the oil supply risk is significantly alleviated and the US Treasury yield continues to rise, the upward momentum of the gold price may slow down temporarily [2] Silver - **Logic**: Silver is supported by geopolitical risk - aversion and inflation expectations as part of the precious metals sector, but its financial attribute is weaker than that of gold, and its short - term performance is more affected by risk preference and interest rate expectations; the market's expectation of the high - interest rate maintenance time has been revised upwards, suppressing the valuation of silver and temporarily converging its elasticity relative to gold; if the market's pricing of stagflation deepens, silver will benefit from the precious metals sentiment on the one hand and face the disturbance of weakening growth expectations on its industrial attribute on the other hand, so its volatility may continue to be greater than that of gold [3] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silver is likely to maintain a high - level shock, but the rhythm is more complex. If the precious metals allocation demand continues to spread, silver still has room for a supplementary rise; if the market further shifts to trading the co - existence of growth slowdown and high interest rates, the silver price volatility may continue to increase [3] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2591.86, down 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, down 0.58%; the industrial products index was 2565.21, down 0.51% [45] - **Precious Metals Index**: On March 17, 2026, the precious metals index was 4261.99, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a decline of 5.23% in the past 5 days, an increase of 1.47% in the past month, and an increase of 11.45% since the beginning of the year [47]