周内责金属整体维持调整走势,白银仍波动剧烈,黄金呈现盘整。据万得数据,2月6日沪银主力收于18799元/千克、跌幅 14. 92%，沪金主力收于1090. 12元/克，跌幅2. 02%。日内伦敦金现最低触及4654美元/盎司，伦敦银现最低触及64美元/盎司。 美股等外围资产持续下跌，对贵金属形成情绪、流动性层面冲击。1月29日受相关科技公司业绩影响，美股出现较大幅度下跌， 当晚即对商品市场产生拖累. 随后"沃什交易"进一步对责金属的过热行情形成修正。本周以来美股再度下跌，数字货币等流动性敏感 的资产也出现大幅下挫，外围市场情绪的持续低迷，对贵金属形成负反馈。值得关注的是，在近半年金银的大幅上涨中，价格和美股走 势的联动性加强,风险偏好的交易上贵金属呈现出接近风险资产的特征。 中美元首通话释放积极信号，贵金属对地缘冲突的敏感度边际下降。据外交部发布，2月4日晚间中美元首通话，特朗普表示" 美方愿与中方加强合作，推动两国关系取得新发展"。万得援引央视新闻报道，美东时间2月5日，美国国务院通过"虚拟驻伊朗德黑兰 使馆"发布安全警告称，伊朗全国范围内持续加强安全管控，局势依然紧张，美方敦促美国公民尽快自行离开伊朗。1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-06 美伊谈判前后油价延续⾼波动，烧碱下 ⾏持续性待观察 央视新闻报道，美伊谈判将于2月6日在阿曼举行，谈判前油价高波动 仍在延续，本轮核问题谈判结果将对短期油价形成方向性指引。路透显示 海外柴油裂解价差重回弱势，炼厂毛利相对承压。路透报道俄罗斯对中国 出口的原油折扣幅度继续加大，市场存在对印度购买减量的担忧。伊朗及 俄罗斯地缘局势、OPEC+二季度产量预期等供应端因素仍是2月原油市场关 注的核心，目前地缘溢价仍存，短期重点关注美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗 斯石油购买进展。 板块逻辑： 油价高波动下化工品市场有所分化，PX及PTA存在终端需求支撑不足 的阶段性压力，纯苯及苯乙烯在3月后的去库预期支撑下价格震荡偏强。 近期液氯价格上调，烧碱下行空间打开，但考虑节前液氯价格可能向下调 整，烧碱以震荡看待。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：沥青原料供应扰动有望缓解 高硫燃油：燃油期价等待美伊谈判进展 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：沿海利空显著，甲醇区间震荡 尿素：预售订单支撑，尿素震荡整理 乙二醇：近端到货偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance on quantitative tightening may be difficult to implement. The market's expectations for the US monetary policy path are unlikely to change significantly, and investors should also monitor the US-Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market is expected to continue with positive policy expectations. In Q1, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve a good start for the economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The overall policy environment is favorable, which supports a bullish view on risk assets in Q1 [9]. - Asset views: Structured opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectations, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectations can support the upward movement of the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector has high short - term volatility, and it is recommended to wait for volatility to decline. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after a pullback. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil has high uncertainty, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Performance Data Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - On February 5, 2026, most index futures showed declines, such as the CSI 500 futures with a daily decline of - 1.59% and a weekly decline of - 2.9%. Treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.22% [2]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose by 0.27% on February 5, 2026, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 25 pips. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate decreased by 0.95 bp [2]. Interest Rates - The 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 1 bp on February 5, 2026, and the US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread increased by 1 bp [2]. Industry Index - On February 5, 2026, industries such as consumer services, textile and apparel, and food and beverage showed increases, while industries like non - ferrous metals, steel, and machinery showed declines [4]. Domestic Commodities - On February 5, 2026, commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe) and fuel oil showed increases, while precious metals (silver) and non - ferrous metals (nickel) showed significant declines [5]. Overseas Commodities - On February 4, 2026, overseas energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell. Precious metals like COMEX gold and COMEX silver also rose [6]. 2. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down with shrinking trading volume, and the consumer sector strengthened seasonally. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase [10]. - Stock index options: The implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, indicating a range - bound game sentiment. The short - term outlook is range - bound [10]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the implementation of monetary policy, risk appetite, and government bond issuance [10]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Geopolitical tensions eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the US economic fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and geopolitical trends [10]. - Silver: The structural tightness in the spot market eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch are similar to those for gold [10]. Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Spot freight rates were under pressure, and shipping companies cut prices to attract cargo before the festival. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include spot market freight rate changes, geopolitical sentiment, and the risk of price wars among shipping companies [10]. Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: Cost support weakened, and the futures market was under pressure. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [10]. - Iron ore: Hot metal production increased slightly, and inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term outlook is range - bound, with factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics to be monitored [10]. - Coke: Profits recovered, supply increased, and the demand from hot metal production provided support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. - Coking coal: Restocking was nearly completed, and the futures and spot markets were range - bound. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include coal mine resumption, Mongolian coal imports, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Nickel: There was a game between expected policies and weak reality, and nickel prices were range - bound. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [10]. - Tin: Market sentiment was weak, and tin prices continued to adjust. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [10]. - Copper: The US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices were under short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [10]. - Aluminum: Inventories continued to accumulate, and aluminum prices declined. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: Supply pressure remained, and geopolitics dominated the rhythm. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: Chemical demand weakened, and attention should be paid to Iranian risks. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [12]. Agricultural Sector - Natural rubber: Short - term support was still effective. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [12]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures market had high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [12]. - Cotton: It was range - bound and lacked a unilateral trend before the festival. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include production and demand [12]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar exports still had potential, and the medium - to - long - term outlook was for a range - bound decline. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound decline, and factors to watch include Brazilian port logistics, lower - than - expected northern hemisphere production, and macroeconomic fluctuations [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-06 恐慌情绪反复，基本金属震荡偏承压 有⾊观点：恐慌情绪反复，基本⾦属震荡偏承压 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，特朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期， 投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰派，美元指数快速反抽，白银杀跌对市场情绪 的负面影响仍在，基本金属延续震荡偏承压，整体上看，宏观面预期短期 出现反复，关注美联储降息预期变化。原料端延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有 扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现实供需偏宽松。整体来 看，短期白银杀跌引发的恐慌情绪边际减弱，但负面影响仍在，考虑到春 节长假临近且波动较大，观望或者严控仓位下铜铝锡谨慎短多为宜，注意 规避风险；中长期，我们认为美联储独立性风险下弱美元预期及供应端扰 动的支撑仍在，铜铝锡等品种有望维持震荡偏强走势。 铜观点：美元指数延续回升，铜价短期承压。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：库存延续累积，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，价格震荡回落。 锌观点：有⾊情绪⾛弱，锌价再度下⾏。 铅观点：有⾊情绪转弱VS成本⽀撑较⾼，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：股市缩量收跌，⼤消费季节性⾛强。 股指期权：隐波⾛势分化，情绪指向区间博弈。 国债期货：国债期货全线⾛⾼。 股指期货⽅⾯，股市缩量收跌，⼤消费季节性⾛强。周四沪指收跌， 板块出现春节前的季节性特征，补涨集中在低位大消费，影视、美容护 理、旅游酒店、食品零售等春节消费股走强。另外，银行、券商等金融权 重板块午后崛起，对应算力硬件、太空光伏等题材补跌，有色股跟随商品 价格再度下行。美股AMD财报业绩下滑，引发市场对AI资本开支和利润又 一次的担忧，对应算力链条承压，向A股传导。参考2008年以来的历史规 律，春节前易呈现价值红利占优，特别是节前遇到缩量环境，但长假后流 动性恢复，政策偏暖难证伪的环境中，小盘成长的胜率最高。因此在全年 成长风格的趋势中，我们看长做短，捕捉月度机会，节前低吸IM多单，以 待进攻。 股指期权⽅⾯，隐波⾛势分化，情绪指向区间博弈。股指期权方面， 周四标的震荡调整，大盘风格强于小盘。波动率方面，各品种期权隐波走 势分化，50、300期权延续降波，当前走至近半年65-70%分位，中证 1000、科创50ETF期权隐波小幅上升。情绪指标 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-06 现实压⼒仍存，盘⾯弱势调整 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现承压。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒渐显，盘⾯表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进⼝处于⾼位，盘⾯⾼位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现承压。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力渐显，盘面表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进口处于高位，盘面高位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开两会，宏观 预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预 期，随着补库接近尾声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随 成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。国内煤矿临 近假期产量将逐 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-06 恐慌情绪反复，新能源金属剧烈波动 新能源观点：恐慌情绪反复，新能源⾦属剧烈波动 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，恐慌情绪再度 反复，碳酸锂大幅下跌，新能源金属延续高波动；中期来看，政策预 期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强， 尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求 预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价 格重心。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格宽幅震荡。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪⾛弱，碳酸锂盘中跌停。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 ...

万得数据显⽰，⽇内⾦银价格再度下⾏，其中⽩银板块跌势更⼤、跌幅逾 9%；主要受投资者获利抛售、美元指数⾛强及地缘紧张局势趋缓等多重 因素压制。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2⽉4⽇，经多位中东领导⼈紧急游 说，原定于2⽉6⽇举⾏的美伊核谈判计划得以恢复，地缘紧张局势有所缓 和。此外，中国⻩⾦协会指出，2025年我国⻩⾦消费量同⽐下降3. 57%、⽽⻩⾦产量同⽐上升1.09%，对短期⾦价上涨空间形成抑制。近期 亚太股市受美股冲击，市场情绪反复，叠加2⽉5⽇上期所再次宣布上调⾦ 银等期货品种保证⾦并扩⼤涨跌停板，短期⾦银波动⻛险仍较⼤；预计短 线⻩⾦维持宽幅震荡，⽩银波动⻛险尤为突出。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-6 ⾦银再度下跌，⽩银波动剧烈 黄金观点：短线维持宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价均下跌超1%，受投资者止盈 抛售、美元指数走强、美伊地缘紧张局势边际缓和等因素压制；中国 黄金协会指出2025年黄金消费量有所下降、而产量增加，亦对短期 上涨空间形成一定压制。2月5日中国黄金协会数据显示，2025年我国 黄金产量381.339吨、 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals by CITIC Futures Research, dated February 6, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector significantly declined during the session due to the strengthening of the US dollar and hawkish remarks from a Fed governor. As of the close on February 5, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 540.3 yuan/gram, a decline of 7.96%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 442.7 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.97% [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Fed governor Lisa Cook's remarks were a short - term adjustment trigger but did not fundamentally affect the Fed's policy path. The market is in a volatile and wide - ranging consolidation phase. Geopolitical risks, US tariff and sanction expectations provide price support. In the future, South Africa faces power supply and extreme weather risks on the supply side. On the demand side, the platinum market is in a structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity in the long - term [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the medium - to - long term due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [3] Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side as the US investigation result on Russian unforged palladium imports is pending and Europe may impose new sanctions. The tight spot market supports prices. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, short - term spot shortages and Fed rate - cut expectations provide support [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the medium - to - long term due to spot shortages and an improving macro environment [4] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2401.01, a decline of 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, a decline of 0.99%; the industrial products index was 2300.28, a decline of 0.97% on February 5, 2026 [51] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 5, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [53]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-6 合成橡胶盘面弹性较大，关注低位支撑 油脂：供应预期承压，油脂弱势回调 蛋⽩粕：现货涨跌互现，双粕盘⾯震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现震荡运⾏ ⽣猪：购销顺畅，猪价弱势 天然橡㬵：短期⽀撑仍有效 合成橡㬵：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 棉花：震荡调整，节前缺乏单边趋势 ⽩糖：巴西⻝糖出⼝仍存潜⼒，中⻓期震荡偏弱预期不改 纸浆：针叶美⾦盘报平，基本⾯弱势更为明显 双㬵纸：商品转弱，双㬵回调 原⽊：冲⾼回落，原⽊区间运⾏ ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 【异动品种】 合成橡㬵观点：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 逻辑：昨日BR盘面夜盘突然大幅下挫，而后日盘商品在贵金属继续大幅回 调的带动下走低，BR维持偏弱，但触及12500元/吨关口后获得支撑并小幅 反弹。从基本面来看并未出现明显变化，丁二烯成交也并不差，所以我们 认为盘面更多仅是调整需求。目前来说，中期核心逻辑暂时未变，即对于 丁二烯在2026上半年供应偏紧预期的交易。目前来说，在原料偏紧格局 下,商品情绪即使整体影响依旧较大，并造成盘面偶尔出 ...