1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating" [9][10] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, leading to tightened risk - appetite. Stock index futures show a structural adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Stock index options' implied volatility has slightly rebounded, and the market is cautious. Treasury bond market sentiment has improved due to risk - aversion and loose liquidity, but there is still uncertainty [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Today's stock market oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.09%, the CSI 1000 down 1.44%, and the STAR 50 down 2.02%. Trading volume decreased by 240 billion yuan. Defensive sectors like energy and dividends strengthened, while high - beta sectors declined. It is currently a structural adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Short - term market is about style re - balancing. Wait for the right - side confirmation of capital indicators to lightly invest in IM [3][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The equity market had a volume - shrinking correction on Thursday. Implied volatility rebounded in the afternoon. Option market volume decreased, and the total trading volume fell below 10 billion yuan. Maintain the put - buying defense strategy and watch for out - of - the - money covered call opportunities [4][9] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The central bank's net injection of 21.1 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase kept the liquidity stable. Geopolitical uncertainties led to risk - aversion, driving up long - term bond prices. Short - term bonds were supported by loose liquidity. The short - term is relatively stable, while the long - term may oscillate. Adopt oscillating trend strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis, ultra - long - term reverse arbitrage, and short - term steeper yield curve [5][10] 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [11][15][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 26, equity index futures dropped, while commodities were mixed, with Energy & Chemicals leading the raise. IC dropped 1.8%, and IM dropped 1.5% in equity index futures. In commodity futures, Methanol, Synthetic Rubber, and Bitumen were the top three gainers, while Palladium, Platinum, and Poly - Silicon were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. - The supply of live hogs is increasing in the short - term, with high slaughter pressure in the medium - term and potential reduction in the long - term. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. Hog prices are expected to remain low in the first half of the year, with a potential rebound in the fourth quarter [16][17][19]. - Geopolitical tensions drive oil prices, affecting bitumen and PP. Bitumen refinery margins are deteriorating, and supply may decrease. PP prices rebound with crude oil, but the geopolitical outlook is uncertain [28][36][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 26, equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed. Energy & Chemicals led the raise. In equity index futures, IC dropped 1.8%, and IM dropped 1.5%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol (up 4.7% with 14.5% month - on - month open interest increase), Synthetic Rubber (up 4.3% with 1.7% month - on - month open interest increase), and Bitumen (up 4.2% with 14.3% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were Palladium (down 5.2% with 2.3% month - on - month open interest increase), Platinum (down 4.8% with 0.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and Poly - Silicon (down 2.8% with 1.9% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Drop - Live Hog - On March 26, the main contract of Live Hog dropped 1.9% to 9835 yuan/ton (DCE). Supply is increasing in the short - term, with high slaughter pressure in the medium - term due to high sow inventory in the first half of 2025 and increased piglet births in January - February 2026. In the long - term, sow inventory decreased in the second half of 2025 but per - sow yield is rising. Demand is weak, and inventories (average hog weight and frozen product inventories) are increasing. Hog prices are expected to remain low in the first half of the year, with a potential rebound in the fourth quarter [16][17][20]. 3.1.3 Daily Raise 3.1.3.1 Bitumen - On March 26, the main Bitumen futures contract rose 4.2% to 4543 yuan/ton (SHFE). Geopolitical tensions drive oil prices, and the bitumen - fuel oil spread is low. Bitumen refinery margins are deteriorating, and production cuts may drive the spread higher. Supply may further decrease due to high refined product margins, while demand faces inventory accumulation pressure. The current bitumen futures are undervalued relative to fuel oil but overvalued relative to steel rebar [28][29][31]. 3.1.3.2 PP - On March 26, the main PP futures contract rose 2.4% to 9120 yuan/ton (DCE). Geopolitical conflicts' duration is uncertain, and PP prices rebound with crude oil. The geopolitical outlook is highly uncertain, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. China's PP imports from Iran are small, and the import - side impact is limited. Oil - based and PDH PP plants' margins are under pressure, while coal - based margins have rebounded. Spot trading of PP is generally muted [36][37][39]. 3.2 Important News - Macro News - Trump is to visit China in mid - May, and China - US are in communication about it [43]. - COSCO Shipping resumes bookings for Gulf States, and vessels will bypass the Strait of Hormuz temporarily [43]. - US - Iran negotiations are "still ongoing and productive" [43]. - Iran rejects the US ceasefire proposal and puts forward 5 Iranian conditions [43]. - Iran seeks to levy toll on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the draft bill is finalized [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the resurgence of concerns about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, precious metals fluctuated and declined. It is expected that precious metals will operate in a wide - range shock in the short term. One should closely monitor the progress of the peace talks between the US and Iran and the fluctuations in energy prices, and be vigilant against the risk of repeated geopolitical conflicts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Domestic and international gold prices fluctuated and declined during the day. COMEX gold fell by more than 2%, and SHFE gold fell below the 1000 yuan/gram mark. This was mainly dragged down by the repeated geopolitical situation, which pushed up inflation expectations and weakened market risk appetite. The US initial and continued jobless claims data still showed some resilience [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. One needs to be vigilant against the further deterioration of market risk appetite caused by the escalation of conflicts. In the long - term, the support for gold to rise is still strong [3]. Silver - **Logic**: Domestic and international silver prices both declined during the day. COMEX silver fell by more than 6%, and SHFE silver fell by nearly 1%. This was mainly due to the double suppression of the repeated geopolitical situation, which pushed up inflation concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar. In the short term, the spot drive of silver itself is still weak. If the geopolitical conflict does not ease, the market trading main line may gradually shift from "inflation" to "stagflation", and the suppression of silver's industrial product attributes will gradually appear [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, silver will operate in a shock. One should be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. In the long - term, if the economic cycle rotates to the stagflation scenario, gold will continue to benefit, while the elasticity of silver may be limited, and its trend will generally follow gold. If the progress of the peace talks between the US and Iran exceeds expectations, the US economy is expected to return to the recovery path, and the elasticity of silver's industrial product attributes is expected to be gradually released [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2515.25, up 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial products index was 2545.38, up 0.15% [45]. Precious Metals Index - On March 26, 2026, the precious metals index was 3801.39, with a daily increase of 0.81%, a 5 - day decline of 1.02%, a 1 - month decline of 15.50%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.60% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The pessimistic sentiment in the base metal market has eased, and prices are expected to oscillate and recover. The supply side has potential support, and the demand side is gradually shifting to the traditional peak season, with consumption improving [1]. - Different metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, but generally show an oscillating trend. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Current situation**: On March 26, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -15 yuan/ton; the TC of 25% copper concentrate was -67.2 dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -1.7 dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main logic**: As the Middle East conflict eases, market risk aversion cools down, and copper prices stop falling and stabilize. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply of refined copper is expected to shrink, and overseas smelters have cut production. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline [6]. - **Outlook**: The macro uncertainty exerts pressure on copper prices, but supply and demand are gradually improving. Copper prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Current situation**: On March 26, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2788 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 415,268 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 3,599 tons [7]. - **Main logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the balance between upstream and downstream has improved, but there is still a slight surplus. The warehouse receipt level is increasing, and the spot price is rising slightly. The Middle East issue has affected the production of electrolytic aluminum, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices has also raised the cost support. In addition, the disturbance at the ore end has intensified the market's concern about resource stability, and the market price is running strongly in the short term [7]. - **Outlook**: The reduction of electrolytic aluminum production puts pressure on demand, but the policy of Guinea's ore provides support. Alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Current situation**: On March 26, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton; the spot discount was -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.371 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 339,500 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons; the warehouse receipt of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 404,742 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 69 tons [8][9]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, the US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. On the supply side, the domestic production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is high; the Middle East conflict increases the supply disturbance of overseas aluminum, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is still restricted by electricity and other factors. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the high price still restricts demand, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum is low. The support on the supply side has initially appeared [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, due to the repeated capital sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by electricity and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -100 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton [11]. - **Main logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains low, and the tax return policy and tax transfer may still restrict supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased. The high price restricts downstream demand in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased. In general, the cost support still exists in the short term, and the supply - demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, the supply side may have the risk of production reduction due to the cancellation of policies, the supply - demand maintains a tight balance, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Current situation**: On March 26, the discount of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was -15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was -20 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was -60 yuan/ton; as of March 26, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 214,400 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -5,100 tons [11][12]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, Trump released information that the military conflict between the US and Iran was easing, the macroeconomic expectation changed, and the pessimistic sentiment eased. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The previously locked - price zinc ingots have completed export, and the domestic supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new terminal orders are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. In general, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may oscillate and stabilize in the short term [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply of zinc ingots has increased month - on - month. Although the downstream demand has entered the peak season, the terminal demand is weak, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The social inventory has not decreased for a long time. However, the military conflict between the US and Iran has affected the supply of zinc ingots and zinc concentrates, and the rising energy price has increased the pressure on European zinc smelters. At the same time, the export window of domestic zinc ingots has closed. Before the overseas smelters significantly increase production, the LME inventory is difficult to continuously accumulate. Currently, the processing fees of domestic zinc smelters are low, and the recent decline in zinc prices will further compress the smelter's profit and stimulate downstream procurement demand. Zinc prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,250 - 16,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,300 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was -65 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton; on March 23, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 63,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 52,867 tons, with no change month - on - month [13]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has increased, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt has remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, the lead price has slightly decreased, the loss of recycled lead smelting is still large, the smelters have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly decreased. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [16]. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains high. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has gradually recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high. Lead prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,593 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -12 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -216 tons; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th; the Indonesian Minister of Finance said that if approved by the government, the windfall tax on nickel and coal may be implemented as early as April 1 [16]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the domestic production of electrolytic nickel decreased month - on - month in February, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to some extent. The overall supply pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory remains at a high level. The key is to focus on the realization of peak - season demand in the future. In terms of policy, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply - demand in February is still loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which exerts certain pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the realization strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance, which provides certain support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show an oscillating and strong trend, and the progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 45,736 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2,139 tons; the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the main stainless steel contract; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th [18]. - **Main logic**: The prices of raw materials remain stable, and there is still certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious. The key is to focus on the realization of the peak season in the future. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is running at a low level [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the realization strength of the peak season in the future. The current fundamentals exert certain pressure on prices. However, considering that the industrial chain profit has been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless steel is expected to show an oscillating and strong trend. The progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [18]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Current situation**: On March 26, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -25 tons to 8,780 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -387 tons to 7,757 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by -1,550 lots to 73,214 lots; the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 352,900 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -4,900 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - elevation areas, and the ore output in Wa State is expected to gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main producing areas is still fragile. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the high growth of the semiconductor industry, but the new global photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, the demand for tin ingots is expected to continue to grow. Overall, the supply risk still exists, and with the resilience of downstream demand, the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, in the short term, due to the weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, the price will maintain an oscillating trend [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, there is no obvious driving force in the short term, and with the macro - level pressure, tin prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,515.25, up 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2,811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial product index was 2,545.38, up 0.15% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 26 was 2,599.38, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a 5 - day increase of 0.86%, a 1 - month decrease of -4.40%, and a year - to - date decrease of -3.22% [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oscillating**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, logs - **Oscillating weakly**: Live pigs - **Oscillating strongly**: Cotton - **Oscillating strongly in the short - term**: Synthetic rubber 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and offers corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [1][5][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats oscillate and rebound. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to high - level oscillation of oil prices. The US biodiesel policy and the planting area report from the US Department of Agriculture are to be released. In the domestic market, the shutdown of oil mills reduces soybean oil inventory, while demand is weak. For palm oil, production reduction and export growth in Malaysia boost market sentiment, but high prices and the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has decreased weekly [5]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at phased lows [6]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market has weak supply and demand, and the double - meal disk oscillates. - **Logic**: Internationally, the expected Chinese policy - based procurement and the upcoming release of the US EPA's biodiesel quota boost the US soybean futures price. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and high inventory may limit the upward space. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price rises due to the cost - side drive of the US soybean price. The spot market has a game between oil mills and feed mills [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Rapeseed meal generally follows soybean meal but is weaker [7]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Corn continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The temperature rise accelerates the supply of damp grain, and the increased supply of old wheat may put pressure on the market. However, the supply pressure is not significant, and the downstream demand is stable. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and increased marginally [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the callback pressure caused by the increase in damp grain supply and the expected release of brown rice. In the medium - term, corn is expected to be bullish [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply increases, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the high inventory of sows in 2025 leads to a large number of piglet births in 2026, resulting in high pressure on hog slaughter. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased since the second half of 2025, but the increase in sow productivity may offset the impact. The current process of capacity reduction is not smooth [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [2][10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere is warm, and the disk continues to rebound. - **Logic**: The non - escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the high - level operation of synthetic rubber drive the rebound of natural rubber. The supply in overseas producing areas may be affected by the Middle East conflict, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East are affected. Seasonally, there is an adjustment demand [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. If there is no further fermentation of events, wait for the opportunity to buy on dips [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The disk breaks through the 18,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene is strengthened. The disruption of the supply of key raw materials such as naphtha due to the Middle East conflict leads to the reduction of butadiene supply. Even if the cost of raw materials is higher than that of downstream products, the price is still likely to rise as long as the geopolitical situation is tense [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term. If the oil price continues to rise, the disk will remain strong [13][14]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are good, and there is strong support below. - **Logic**: The domestic cotton processing and inspection work is completed, the commercial inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is good. In the long - term, the expected reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 provides an upward drive, but the specific policy details are to be announced [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [14]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The short - term main theme is that the sugar price oscillates with the oil price. - **Logic**: The short - term oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict leads to the oscillation of the sugar price. In the long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect the Brazilian new - season production and tighten the global sugar supply [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. There may be an upward drive in the long - term [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price declined yesterday, and the pressure still exists. - **Logic**: The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the 4 - 6 month period usually decreases seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support for the price [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4950 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: Weakly oscillating. - **Logic**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have no obvious changes. The resumption of some maintenance devices increases the industry's operating rate, but the profit of paper mills is poor, and the production increase is limited. In the short - and medium - term, the demand in the peak season and the paper mills' profit - repair demand may support the price, but in the long - term, the loose supply - demand situation limits the price increase [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2026 [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Strongly oscillating. - **Logic**: The price of logs is mainly driven by cost and supply contraction. The high oil price increases the shipping cost, and the New Zealand suppliers reduce production and raise prices. The low inventory and strong demand in the downstream lead to a supply - demand mismatch [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with strong support below and obvious hedging pressure above [22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost support weakens, and the futures prices fall from high levels. The impact of geopolitical conflicts weakens, but there are still expectations of coking coal warehouse - receipt pressure, causing coal - coke prices to decline from high levels. Iron ore prices fluctuate at high levels due to repeated disturbances on the supply side. Alloys lack fundamental highlights, and their futures prices loosen at high levels. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. Under the weakening of cost support, the futures market adjusts weakly. There may be repeated disturbances on the cost side in the later stage, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak - balance state, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the long - process demand recovers slowly. The fundamentals continue in a weak - balance pattern, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the actual recovery progress of terminal demand in the future [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both the supply and demand of coke increase. The resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster, and the spot cost price continues to rise. The expectation of spot price increase for coke is strong, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [12]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove for the time being. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer of manganese silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk for the valuation level of the futures market higher than the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuations in manganese ore prices and the changes in manufacturers' production levels [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties in the future is difficult to disprove for the time being. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, gradually shifting the supply - demand relationship to a loose state. In the medium - to - long term, when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers, there is still a callback risk. It is necessary to pay attention to the adjustment range of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas and the resumption of production trends of manufacturers [18]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory in the middle and downstream is moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, the high inventory will always suppress prices [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The glass melting volume is stable, the supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15]. 3.5 Steel - The cost support weakens, and the futures performance is weak. The spot trading volume is average. The steel mill profitability rate increases month - on - month, and hot metal production resumes. The downstream gradually resumes work, and the rigid demand and restocking demand are slowly released. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The futures price adjusts weakly, but there may be repeated disturbances on the cost side. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [8].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the extreme price movements of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, analyzing the causes and future prospects [1][2] Key Data - On May 9, 2020, the Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil cracking spread reached a record high of $15.09 per barrel, and the east-west spread hit a record high of $88.62 per ton, then dropped to $40.63 per barrel on March 26, 2020, falling into negative territory [2] - On the same day in February 2020, the Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil contango reached a record high of $76.59 per ton, far exceeding the previous high of $61.88 per ton on September 17, 2019, and dropped to $29.6 per ton on March 25, 2025, still remaining at a relatively high level [2] - On March 25, 2025, the freight rate of product tankers TC-RDM2-SIN was $95.47 per ton, compared with $64.51 per ton at the beginning of March [2] Reasons for the Rise - In 2026, the high-sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia-Pacific region was 510,730 thousand barrels, with Russia supplying 20,140 thousand barrels, Argentina 40,265 thousand barrels, Iran 516,660 thousand barrels, Iraq 8,450 thousand barrels, Saudi Arabia 16,000 thousand barrels, and Malaysia 56,886 thousand barrels (mostly re-exports from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela). Excluding Malaysia's re-export volume, the Middle East's high-sulfur fuel oil supply accounted for 21.2% of the Asian supply [3] - After the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means that at least 21.2% of the high-sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be interrupted. The expectation of fuel oil supply disruption combined with the soaring freight rates drove the continuous strengthening of high-sulfur fuel oil [3] Future Prospects - The current high-sulfur fuel oil price shows characteristics driven by geopolitical factors. After the release of geopolitical premiums, further guidance from geopolitical situations is awaited [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of LPG futures fell 8.02%. The recent peace - talk intention released by the US has reduced market concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East. The tight overseas supply due to restricted Middle East shipments has been the main reason for the significant upward movement of LPG futures prices since March. Currently, geopolitical expectations are in a swing stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the peace - talk expectations are confirmed later, the prices still face upward risks due to extreme supply reduction [3][4][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Latest Dynamic - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of LPG futures fell 8.02% according to Flush data [3] Reason for the Decline - The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan on March 24. The recent peace - talk intention released by the US has reduced market concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East [4] Fundamental Situation - Restricted Middle East shipments have led to a significant tightening of overseas supply, which is the main reason for the sharp upward movement of LPG futures prices since March. In 2025, LPG imported through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for 47.6% of China's LPG imports and 19.6% of China's LPG apparent demand. LPG imported from Iran accounted for 24.7% of China's LPG imports and 10.2% of China's LPG apparent demand. From March 21 to 25, the average daily LPG shipment volume in the Middle East was only about 1600 barrels per day, a decrease of more than 90% compared to before the conflict on February 28. The domestic market will face a decline in arrivals and supply contraction due to reduced refinery gas [5] Market Outlook - Geopolitical expectations are currently in a swing stage. Attention should be paid to Iran's confirmation of subsequent peace - talk conditions and progress. With continuous supply tightness and expected fluctuations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the peace - talk expectations are confirmed later, the prices still face upward risks due to extreme supply reduction [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The refinery operating rate has deviated from the high at the beginning of the year, and crude oil has maintained a relatively high inventory accumulation rate. The decrease in net exports in a single week has also increased the domestic inventory pressure. As of the week of March 20, the US SPR remained unchanged, and the inventory characteristics have not been significantly affected by the sharp reduction in Middle - East supply. Future attention should be paid to the release of SPR and the change rhythm of net exports of crude oil and petroleum products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog EIA Weekly Data - **Crude Oil Inventory**: In the week of March 20, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels, with a decrease of 730,000 barrels per day in imports and 1.576 million barrels per day in exports. The SPR remained unchanged [4]. - **Product Inventory**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.593 million barrels, and diesel inventory increased by 3.032 million barrels. Jet fuel inventory decreased by 671,000 barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 210,000 barrels. The inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 8.334 million barrels [4]. - **Refinery Data**: The refinery operating rate rose from 91.4% to 92.9%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 366,000 barrels per day [4]. - **Production and Demand**: US crude oil production was 13.657 million barrels per day, and the apparent demand for refined oil was 20.004 million barrels per day. The apparent demand for gasoline was 8.924 million barrels per day, and that for diesel was 3.568 million barrels per day [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict situation remains unclear, and investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertainty and volatility, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the recurrence of the geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomics - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market. The US has proposed a 15 - point plan to Iran for a comprehensive cease - fire, but Iran has not clearly responded, and the negotiation may still be in the intermediary - matchmaking stage. The probability of the tail risk of further deterioration of the situation has slightly decreased [1]. Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan"纲要 has adjusted the target of the added value of the core industries of the digital economy, added indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improved relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the external demand remains resilient [1]. Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Market Conditions of Various Sectors Financial Sector - Stock index futures continue to rebound, but the divergence between long and short positions intensifies; stock index options' implied volatility continues to decline, and the term structure improves; bond markets fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiation. Gold and silver show a trend of oscillating strongly in the short term due to the US releasing peace - negotiation signals [4]. Shipping Sector - The spot market of container shipping on the European line has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month [4]. Black Building Materials Sector - The cost support of steel and iron ore has loosened, and the disk performance is under pressure; the cost of coke continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong; the auction of coking coal continues to rise, and the disk fluctuates at a high level; the energy valuation of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon has bottomed out and rebounded [4]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and the basic metals have stopped falling and oscillated. The prices of aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel show a trend of oscillating strongly [4]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical products continue to oscillate at a high level. The prices of various products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are in an oscillating state [5]. Agricultural Sector - There is a co - existence of weak reality and strong expectation. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The prices of various agricultural products such as grains, livestock, and rubber are mostly in an oscillating state [5]. Market Fluctuation Data Financial Market - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates are presented. For example, the daily increase of CSI 300 futures is 1.6%, and the weekly decrease is 0.81% [7]. Industry Index - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of various industry indexes are shown. For example, the daily increase of the non - ferrous metals industry index is 3.01%, and the monthly decrease is 18.55% [8][9]. Overseas Commodities - On March 24, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are presented. For example, the daily increase of NYMEX WTI crude oil is 0.3%, and the weekly decrease is 9.89% [10][11]. Domestic Main Commodities - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of domestic shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemical products, and agricultural products are shown. For example, the daily decrease of container shipping on the European line is 2.78%, and the monthly increase is 51.86% [12][13][14].