投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-25 俄罗斯炼⼚持续受袭，地缘短期提振能 化 乌克兰继续轰炸俄罗斯炼厂，柴油的强势提振了原油价格。柴油是全 球所有成品油中需求最大的品类，2024年俄罗斯柴油产量占全球比例为6. 5%，柴油出口占全球比例12.15%。8月迄今乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂进行了 23次袭击，这是今年1-7月总的袭击次数，市场担心柴油的供给再有减 量，柴油的裂解价差走高，汽油也同样居高不下，这给原油价格带来支 撑，未来至少要看到轰炸次数的减少，该因素对油价的影响才会减弱。 板块逻辑： 诸多化工品近期都已经临近至暗时刻，估值被大幅压缩，供需两端压 力导致产业利润压力重重。PTA的现货加工费仅有170元/吨，距离企业盈 亏平衡的300元/吨已经持续一段时间；苯乙烯非一体化和POSM类型装置双 双陷入亏损，苯乙烯的检修也在酝酿中，年底苯乙烯又有两套新装置将投 产；PVC出口至印度的关税被大幅提升，而三季度PVC的新产能刚刚集中释 放；还有产能不断释放的聚烯烃、EG。四季度化工企业的日子仍将艰难。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-25 美联储裂痕持续，贵⾦属整体保持强势 周三贵⾦属价格⽇内继续上⾏，夜间美元⼩幅反弹后有所回落，价格整体 维持强势。美联储分化持续，鲍威尔维持数据依赖的指向，鲍曼等鸽派理 事强调美联储⾏为落后的⻛险。地缘政治紧张局势维持，俄罗斯⻜机周⼆ 进⼊爱沙尼亚领空，促使北约部署战⽃机。⻩⾦波动率及成交指标显⽰市 场还未进⼊拥挤阶段，贵⾦属价格短期有望维持上⾏趋势。 重点资讯： 1）美国财长贝森特称，美联储的利率水平过高且持续时间过长；不 明白为什么鲍威尔的态度有所缓和了；对经济衰退的担忧有所减轻； 担心分配问题，需要利率下调以缓解压力；鲍威尔本应释放降息100- 150个基点的信号；准备采取必要措施来支持阿根廷；和阿根廷讨论 200亿美元互换额度，已与多家有意进行大量外国直接投资的美国公 司进行了交谈；美国财政部准备好购买阿根廷美元债；努力结束大宗 商品生产商的免税期。 2）美联储调查显示，企业财务主管表示市场情绪正在好转，但关税 将推动物价上涨。 3）英国央行行长贝利：利率仍有进一步下调的空间；何时降息以及 降息幅度取决于通 ...

Grasberg Mine Shutdown Incentives Copper Price Huge Rise 铜矿大量级减产支撑铜价突破上行 Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3088415 > 投资咨询号Consulting No.: Z0016667 | 郑非凡 Zheng FeiFan | 沈照明 Shen Zhaoming | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013632 | 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi | | Event 事件点评 On the evening of 24th Sep , copper prices rebounded significantly, with LME copper breaking through US$10,000 per ton again. Freeport McMo ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-25 "反内卷"交易未⽌，短期价格仍有波 动 昨⽇《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台，市场"反内卷"情绪、尤其是针 对玻璃品种再度加强，⽇盘板块⼀度整体快速拉升，之后⼩幅回落， 夜盘时段，板块震荡运⾏为主。从《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台以及 市场表现来看，"反内卷"交易未⽌，且后期仍有预期，当前基本⾯ ⽆显著变化，因此价格保持震荡过程中继续受"反内卷"交易扰动。 昨日《建材行业稳增长方案》出台，市场"反内卷"情绪、尤其是针 对玻璃品种再度加强，日盘板块一度整体快速拉升，之后小幅回落， 夜盘时段，板块震荡运行为主。从《建材行业稳增长方案》出台以及 市场表现来看，"反内卷"交易未止，且后期仍有预期，当前基本面 无显著变化，因此价格保持震荡过程中继续受"反内卷"交易扰动。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿需求高位支撑，厂内库存增加，体现节前补 库，当前台风因素预计影响周内到港，短期基本面健康，但建材旺季 需求仍表现欠佳，限制铁矿上方空间，预计短期价格震荡。废钢供需 再度双增，且钢企节前有补库需求，支撑现货价格，预计短期震荡。 2、碳元素方面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-25 股市缩量反弹，债市延续偏弱 股指期货：科技事件催化成⻓⻛格活跃 股指期权：期权市场情绪⾼涨 国债期货：债市延续偏弱 股指期货方面，科技事件催化成长风格活跃。周三沪指低开回升，缩 量反弹，成长风格积极活跃。日内出现增量科技事件，一是2025云栖大会 开幕，阿里巴巴宣布与英伟达开展Physical AI合作；二是上海微电子展 示最新设备、长川科技三季报大幅预喜，催化半导体产业链全天强势，创 业板指、科创50齐创阶段新高。全天近4500股飘红，但短线情绪与指数割 裂，电力设备、电子、传媒领涨，银行、煤炭、通讯领跌。由于十一临 近，事件驱动的持续性有限，但下跌会引发加仓意愿，可坚守成长风格， 半仓配置IM多单，等待10月中下旬的加仓契机。 股指期权方面，期权市场情绪高涨。昨日权益市场震荡上涨，科创 50指数单日涨幅3.49%。期权方面，市场成交额整体小幅回落，但细分走 势分化，50、300指数相关标的期权成交额回落，表明行情企稳；科创创 业相关标的成交额大幅提升，市场交投情绪活跃。期权情绪指标持仓量PC R全线上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-24 股市震荡盘整，债市再度⾛弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：⼩微盘资⾦拥挤释放 股指期权：期权端对冲防御为主 国债期货：债市再度⾛弱 股指期货方面，小微盘资金拥挤释放。周二沪指探底回升，险守 3800点，量能放大至2.5万亿元，小微盘出现资金拥挤释放。我们预想的 震荡盘整来临，一是进入事件真空期，政策博弈淡化，资金跨节倾向保留 盈利，拥挤资金集中释放；二是早盘出现急跌，对冲情绪渐浓，IC、IM持 仓分别环比增加2.3万手、3.9万手，配合贴水走阔；三是微盘股指数、中 证转债等微盘指数出现破位，触发集中卖盘。下跌环境中，红利防御板块 占优，多数一级行业下跌，银行、煤炭、电力设备领涨。预计十一前后市 场缺少进攻契机，但下跌会引发加仓意愿，可坚守成长风格，适当止盈， 半仓配置IM多单，等待10月中下旬的加仓契机。 股指期权方面，期权端对冲防御为主。昨日权益市场宽幅震荡。期权 方面，交投成交额再度放量，短期的持仓量PCR上行可推测为看跌期权需 求提升，市场出现避险情绪。另一项佐证是波动率早盘上升，但此后震荡 回落；中证1000股指期权加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are rated as "oscillating"; coking coal is rated as "oscillating on the strong side"; and soda ash is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the short term with a long - term downward price center [5][7][8][9][11][12][13][16][17][18][19]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, but the industry's fundamentals continue to support the prices of furnace materials, which in turn support steel prices. The downward pressure before the festival is limited. In the fourth quarter, the macro and policy aspects are expected to provide upward impetus for the prices of the black building materials sector [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the increase in factory inventory reflects pre - festival restocking. After the spot price weakens, port transactions increase, and the fundamentals are healthy. However, the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals of scrap steel are marginally weakening, but it is expected that it is difficult to form an independent market, and the price will mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Currently, both coke and steel enterprises have certain production profits. Supported by the peak - season restocking demand, the short - term supply and demand are strong. The spot has started a new round of price increases, and the support is relatively strong under the stable rebound of coal prices at the cost end. It is expected that the futures market will remain oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Under the current over - speed inspection, coal mine production remains cautious, and the supply recovery is slow. The upward height is limited. At the same time, the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches before the National Day is good, and the market still has positive expectations for the end - of - month meeting. It is expected that the price will oscillate on the strong side in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The expected downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of manganese silicon, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is rather pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon. Attention should be paid to the downward range of raw material costs [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price performance of silicon iron, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may still be a wave of oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply has not changed. After the downward movement of the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the future. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2][16]. 3.5 Specific Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The peak - season demand recovery is limited, and the pre - festival restocking sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled down. The supply is high, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are contradictory, and the futures market is under pressure. However, the cost end still has certain support, and the downward space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined, and port transactions have increased. The overall supply is stable, and the short - term demand is still supported. The inventory level is moderate. The high - level demand supports, but the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has increased slightly this week, and the demand has decreased slightly. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory available days have rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price mainly follows the finished products [9]. - **Coke**: Some coke enterprises have started to raise prices, and the short - term supply and demand are strong. The raw material cost support is strong, but the coking profit is under pressure. The futures market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price has continued to rebound, and coal mines have many pre - sales orders. The supply recovery is slow, and the restocking demand before the festival is good. The price is expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term [12]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and the fundamentals are still weak. The peak - season demand needs to be verified. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level, and the oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation, and the long - term price center will decline [14][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the price is stable. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the future supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is downward space for the price center after the peak season [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is downward pressure on the price after the peak season [18][19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-24 贵⾦属维持⾼斜率上涨 周⼆贵⾦属价格延续上涨，近期加密货币频繁受⿊客攻击、美国政府再度 ⾯临停摆⻛险等因素带来短期利多。在降息周期主导的上⾏趋势中，货币 属性的宏⼤叙事进⼀步放⼤价格弹性，波动率及成交指标显⽰市场还未进 ⼊拥挤阶段，贵⾦属价格短期或延续⾼斜率上⾏。 重点资讯： 1）美国第二季度经常帐赤字2513亿美元，为2023年第三季度以来最 少赤字，预期赤字2563亿美元，前值从赤字4502亿美元修正为赤字 4398亿美元。 2）美联储新任理事米兰首次发表政策演讲便抛出惊人观点，直言基 准利率远高于合理水平，应积极大幅下调。他认为降息空间近2个百 分点，但这一激进观点使其在美联储内部陷入孤立。 3）美国政府停摆风险迫近，美国总统特朗普本周将在白宫会见参议 院少数党领袖查克·舒默和众议院少数党领袖Hakeem Jeffries。" 在会晤中，我们将强调应对成本上升的重要性，其中包括共和党造成 的医疗危机，"议员们在声明中表示。 价格逻辑： 周二贵金属价格延续上涨，近期加密货币频繁受黑客攻击、美国政府 再度面临停 ...