1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Strongly [1][5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating Weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Strongly [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term, oils and fats are likely to continue strong due to factors like increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil减产 season [1][5]. - The protein meal market may shift from a structure of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weak and far - term strong. The futures price is expected to strengthen gradually [6]. - Corn prices may face short - term uncertainty due to old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [7][8]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the industry [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to good macro sentiment and short - term fundamental support [13]. - Synthetic rubber prices may oscillate strongly in the short term as butadiene prices are likely to rise slightly [14]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and within the 5,600 - 5,900 yuan range in the short term [17]. - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate, with the main 11 - contract running in the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. - Log prices are expected to run within the 790 - 840 range, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, US soybeans and soybean oil rose due to technical buying. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend yesterday, with palm oil strong and soybean oil oscillating weakly [1][5]. - **Macro Environment**: The market has a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell [1][5]. - **Industrial Factors**: USDA's August report expects a record - high US soybean yield. US soybean exports face uncertainties due to Sino - US trade relations. US biodiesel demand for soybean oil is expected to increase, but this year's demand is down year - on - year. Palm oil is in the production season, with an expected high output in August. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, but imports from other regions may increase [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: US soybean good - quality rate is 68%. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has declined. CFTC's net short position in US soybeans has decreased. US soybeans are expected to oscillate around 1,050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The market recognizes near - term inventory pressure and far - term supply gaps. Some oil mills will conduct maintenance or reduce operating rates, and forward - purchase contracts are popular among downstream. The market should watch for Sino - US relations and hog industry impacts on demand [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Price Information**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2,300 yuan/ton, and the domestic average corn price is 2,375 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually released, and demand is weak due to low profits in the livestock and deep - processing industries. Policy - related imports have a lower transaction rate. There may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, and new crop supply is expected to be abundant [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **Price Information**: On August 18, the price of Henan's live hogs (outer ternary) was 13.59 yuan/kg, and the futures closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply is increasing, and mid - term supply is expected to rise due to high sow capacity. Long - term supply may decrease due to anti - involution policies. Demand shows a stable pork - to - hog price ratio and an expanding premium for fat hogs. The industry has a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Price Information**: Qingdao Bonded Area's RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, and Thailand's raw material prices have declined [10][12]. - **Market Logic**: Rubber prices rose last Friday due to rumors of state reserves release and then adjusted. Seasonal factors and various rumors support price increases. Short - term supply may decrease, and demand is stable [13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Price Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has declined, and butadiene prices have shown a mixed trend [14]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures followed the overall commodity market's decline. The market is influenced by natural rubber sentiment and butadiene supply shortages. Butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Cotton's 09 contract closed at 13,830 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 14,125 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Logic**: Positive factors include the extension of the suspension of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, a reduction in the US cotton output forecast, low domestic commercial inventories, and improved downstream demand. However, new - crop production is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the futures at 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Sugar's 09 contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 5,672 yuan/ton [17]. - **Market Logic**: The market has revised down the forecast of Brazil's sugar production in the new season, which has adjusted the global sugar surplus expectation. The domestic market has limited downside space but faces supply pressure from imports [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **Price Information**: Shandong's coniferous pulp prices have shown a mixed trend [18]. - **Market Logic**: The pulp market has both positive and negative factors. Broad - leaf pulp has short - term rebound momentum, but long - term supply and demand are still a concern. The futures are expected to oscillate within the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Logic**: The market is trading based on the product's fundamentals. Positive factors include increased cost - side valuation and improved port arrival pressure. Negative factors include weak demand, undigested warehouse receipts, and new warehouse receipt registrations. The market is expected to run within the 790 - 840 range [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakening trend with shocks, investors should adopt a weakening trend with shocks mindset and set the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point [4] - Asphalt: High - valued futures prices await a decline, absolute prices are over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Weak and volatile [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly [4] - Methanol: Spot prices are falling, futures prices fluctuate [4] - Urea: Positive export expectations, market confidence restored, the market rebounds upward [4] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory accumulation is not continuous, prices have support at the bottom [4] - PX: There is short - term support at the bottom [4] - PTA: Costs are supported, supply - demand drivers are limited, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure [4] - Short - fiber: Fluctuates following upstream costs [4] - Bottle chips: Costs have certain support, self - driven factors are limited [4] - PP: Good refinery profits suppress valuations, fluctuates weakly [4] - Propylene: Inventory pressure is not large, PL fluctuates in the short term [4] - Plastic: Supported by maintenance, fluctuates [4] - Pure benzene: Driven by insufficient factors, fluctuates within a narrow range [4] - Styrene: Peak - season stockpiling has begun one after another, but the expected demand is limited, and the overall situation is average [4] - PVC: Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, be cautious and bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Spot prices stabilize and rebound, the market is cautiously optimistic [4] 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the crude oil market is gradually easing, and the market is trending weakly. The chemical industry follows and fluctuates. The pattern of chemical products is slightly stronger than that of crude oil, especially the aromatics segment is boosted by the strong gasoline cracking spread [2][3] - The crude oil market faces continuous inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The high - valued asphalt futures prices are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and fluctuates weakly. The methanol spot price is falling, and the futures price fluctuates. Urea has positive export expectations, and the market rebounds. Ethylene glycol has support at the bottom due to non - continuous port inventory accumulation. PX has short - term support, PTA has cost support and no inventory accumulation pressure, short - fiber follows upstream costs, bottle chips have cost support, PP fluctuates weakly, propylene fluctuates in the short term, plastic fluctuates with maintenance support, pure benzene fluctuates narrowly, styrene's demand is limited, PVC is cautiously bearish, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety Crude oil - Market news: Ukraine plans to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding, and reach a $50 billion agreement with US companies to produce drones. Multiple Palestinian factions agree to a cease - fire proposal. Ukraine attacks a Russian oil pump station [7] - Main logic: OPEC+ production increases lead to supply pressure, global on - land crude oil inventories accumulate against the season, and overseas refined oil gasoline inventories are high. Future crude oil inventories face double pressure from the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases, and the monthly spread is under pressure. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7] Asphalt - Market news: The main asphalt futures contract closes at 3461 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong are 3730 yuan/ton, 3880 yuan/ton, and 3580 yuan/ton respectively [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast, the Russia - US Alaska meeting exceeds expectations, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drives the geopolitical premium to decline. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is still high, driving refinery operations to return. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and the current valuation is higher than that of crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil [8] High - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 2691 yuan/ton [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast and raises OPEC production. The market is affected by factors such as increased tariffs, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. China raises the fuel oil import tariff, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock decreases. The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is still high and is supported by the weakening of crude oil [9] Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 3436 yuan/ton [11] - Main logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is expected to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [11] PX - Market news: On August 18, PX CFR China Taiwan price is 828(+4) dollars/ton, PX Korea FOB price is 806(+4) dollars/ton, etc. [13] - Main logic: Afternoon Asian trading session, crude oil prices rebound slightly, and PX follows the cost to strengthen. Fundamentally, maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the load is slightly increasing. The polyester peak season is approaching, and demand support is gradually strengthening. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance with low inventory, and the short - term downside space is expected to be limited [13] PTA - Market news: On August 18, PTA spot price is 4665(+6) yuan/ton, etc. [14] - Main logic: The cost has short - term support. Fundamentally, the supply side has a slight decline in load due to device maintenance, and downstream polyester and textile industries show signs of recovery. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure in August is narrowing. It is expected that short - term prices will mainly follow cost fluctuations [14] Pure benzene - Market news: On August 18, the closing price of the pure benzene 2603 contract is 6179, with a change of - 0.05%, etc. [15] - Main logic: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease further, and the International Energy Agency lowers the global demand growth forecast, which puts pressure on the oil market. Asian naphtha downstream ethylene cracking device operating rates remain low. Pure benzene performs stronger than the cost side this week, mainly affected by factors such as coking production restrictions, downstream rigid - demand restocking, and port inventory reduction. Downstream operating rates increase, but price increases are weak, and profits decline [17] Styrene - Market news: On August 18, the East China styrene spot price is 7250(0) yuan/ton, etc. [17] - Main logic: Recently, styrene prices have fluctuated weakly. Positive factors include a slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season stockpiling by downstream industries. Negative factors are more dominant, such as the new production capacity of Jingbosidaruixin device, the expected increase in existing supply, and poor white - goods production scheduling data [18] Ethylene glycol - Market news: On August 18, the EG main contract 2509 closes at 4346, a decrease of 28 from the previous trading day, etc. [18] - Main logic: Coal prices are under pressure, and the cost of ethylene glycol has limited guidance. Fundamentally, the supply side has great pressure, but port inventory accumulation is not continuous, and the overall accumulation range is not large. It is expected that prices will have strong support under the low - inventory pattern [19] Short - fiber - Market news: On August 18, the Zhejiang market polyester short - fiber spot price rises by 10 to 6490 yuan/ton ex - factory, etc. [20] - Main logic: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, downstream spinning mill loads and inventories remain stable, market orders start slowly, and raw material support is average. The absolute value of short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [22] Bottle chips - Market news: On August 18, the East China market polyester bottle chip price closes at 5890, with a change of - 10, etc. [22] - Main logic: Rising raw material prices support bottle chips. Fundamentally, there are few changes. Attention should be paid to the restart of factory devices in September. Short - term prices follow upstream costs, and processing fees fluctuate within a range [23] Methanol - Market news: On August 18, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang spot is 2290 yuan/ton (- 20), etc. [24] - Main logic: On August 18, methanol futures prices fluctuate. The Inner Mongolia market price is slightly adjusted downward, but trading is okay. Port inventories increase. Downstream olefins are under pressure due to falling oil prices, which also affects methanol. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, long positions in the far - month can still be considered later [24] Urea - Market news: On August 18, 2025, the high - end and low - end prices of urea in the Shandong market are 1740 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) and 1730 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) respectively [24] - Main logic: Based on the actual export data from May to July and the existing export quota of 320 tons, the average monthly export in August and September needs to reach one million tons to meet the quota. Although the fundamental supply - demand is loose, market confidence recovers rapidly due to high export profits and expected high export volumes, and the market rebounds [25] Plastic (LLDPE) - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream price of LLDPE spot is 7300(0) yuan/ton, etc. [27] - Main logic: On August 18, the main plastic contract declines slightly. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, and there is still capital game at the macro level. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and overseas factors also need attention [27] PP - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream transaction price of East China PP drawing is 7000(- 30) yuan/ton, etc. [28] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PP contract fluctuates and declines. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, propane prices are weak, PP supply is increasing, demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the export window is limited. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff games [29] Propylene (PL) - Market news: On August 18, PL fluctuates, and the low - end market price of Shandong PL is 6400 yuan/ton [29] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PL contract fluctuates. Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and offers are slightly increased. Downstream factories follow demand, and high - price transactions are limited. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the PP - PL polypropylene processing fee is the focus of the market [29] PVC - Market news: The benchmark price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4880(- 50) yuan/ton, etc. [31] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Upstream autumn maintenance is about to start, downstream demand is rigid, export expectations are under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and cost support is weak [31] Caustic soda - Market news: The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625(+ 63) yuan/ton, etc. [32] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, the fundamentals are improving marginally. Alumina demand is increasing, non - aluminum demand is entering the peak season, and there is some restocking in the middle and lower reaches. Shandong maintenance increases in mid - to late August, and attention should be paid to whether the difficulty in liquid chlorine sales will force alkali plants to reduce production [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: Brent M1 - M2 is 0.55 with a change of 0, Dubai M1 - M2 is 0.9 with a change of 0.02, etc. [34] - Basis and inventory receipts: The basis of asphalt is 107 with a change of - 52, and the inventory receipts are 72850, etc. [35] - Inter - variety spreads: 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 140 with a change of 12, 1 - month TA - EG is 354 with a change of 50, etc. [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk preference remains stable, and gold is in a box - range oscillation due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] - Gold prices failed to continue the upward trend after a rebound and fell back to around $3340 per ounce. The gold market is affected by geopolitical negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price trend will mainly depend on the Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump proposed that the US will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial assistance in the security field. Zelensky is ready for a tri - party meeting and hopes for "all - round" security guarantees. European leaders have different stances on the Russia - Ukraine issue, with Germany calling for a cease - fire first and France suggesting a four - party meeting [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is "uneasy" about the rise in service inflation, seeing it as a sign of the stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy [2] - China's Premier chaired a meeting, emphasizing the need to consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery and complete the annual economic and social development goals, focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and stimulating consumption potential [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the counter - subsidy investigation of imported dairy products from the EU until February 21, 2026, citing the complexity of the case [2] Price Logic - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump proposed a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party summit, advocating "talking while fighting" and possible "territorial exchanges". Zelensky agreed to participate and demanded comprehensive security guarantees, while Russia also emphasized the need for reliable guarantees. There are obvious differences among parties on cease - fire, security, and territorial issues [3] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is rising, and the CME tool shows that the market expects at least two interest - rate cuts this year, which supports the gold price. Although the US dollar has received some buying support due to strong PPI and retail data recently, rising inflation expectations and falling consumer confidence still limit its upside potential [3] Outlook - Next week, focus on Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The weekly range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $36 and $40 [6] Commodity Index - On August 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities: the composite index was 2231.32, down 0.23%; the commodity 20 index was 2475.86, down 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2267.54, down 0.49% [45] Precious Metals Index - On August 18, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.77% [47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-08-19 随着淡旺季交替时间临近，市场对钢材终端需求担忧情绪渐起。成本 端尽管焦炭开启第七轮提涨但煤焦期价仍呈回落态势。重⼤活动前限 产⼒度略不及预期，钢材下游库存压⼒初现，需要继续关注后续⼏周 需求表现和限产进展。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运⾏为主。 随着淡旺季交替时间临近，市场对钢材终端需求担忧情绪渐起。成本 端尽管焦炭开启第七轮提涨但煤焦期价仍呈回落态势。重大活动前限 产力度略不及预期，钢材下游库存压力初现，需要继续关注后续几周 需求表现和限产进展。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运行为主。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比增加，45港口到港量小幅回升， 略高于去年同期水平，总供应相对平稳，关注其发运增量的持续性； 需求端钢企盈利率小幅下降，同比依然处于高位，铁水产量微幅回 升，钢企短期因利润原因减产可能性较小，关注下旬限产政策。库存 方面，铁矿石港口累库，压港船只下降，钢企小幅补库，总库存小幅 累积。基本面利空驱动有限，预计后市价格震荡。 2、碳元素方面， 产地部分煤矿复产，但仍有部分矿点因事故以及其它因素产量受 ...

Report Core View - CPO and innovative drug sentiments are at relatively high levels; military, AIGC, and robot sentiments are in an upward trend [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Summary by Related Catalogs - No relevant content

双焦周度数据 2025年08月15日 研究员: | 会典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 图表 1: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | સ સ્રેન્દ્ર | 指标 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-15 | 环比 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 240. 32 | 240. 66 | 0. 34 | | | 产量 | 46.8 | 46. 73 | -0. 07 | | | 库存 | 619. 28 | 609.8 | -9.48 | | | 库存可用天数 | 10. 91 | 10. 83 | -0. 08 | | 全样本独立焦企 | 产量 ...

Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 33 of 2025 [2] Report Summary Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5%, with 593 billion yuan issued in August [4][5] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0%, with 376 billion yuan issued in August [10][25] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12] - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18] - As of August 17, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20] Weekly Bond Issuance and Financing Data - This week, 190 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 212 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - This week, 303 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous week [8] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -137 billion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan from the previous week [12] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 2146 billion yuan, a decrease of 1239 billion yuan from the previous week [16] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 2009 billion yuan, a decrease of 2205 billion yuan from the previous week [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 33rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of August 17, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous week. 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5% [4]. - This week, new special bonds issued 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared with the previous week [4]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 5.93 billion yuan [5]. New General Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0% [10]. - This week, new general bonds issued 3.03 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week [8]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 3.76 billion yuan [25]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -1.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.66 billion yuan compared with the previous week [12]. - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 21.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.39 billion yuan compared with the previous week [16]. - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 20.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.05 billion yuan compared with the previous week [20]. - As of August 17, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 昨⽇⻩⾦价格偏弱震荡，⽩银价格⼩幅回调。美国PPI的超预期上⾏， 周度初请、续请失业⾦⼈数的回落，以及美联储部分官员发⾔偏鹰，带来 的降息预期波动是压制市场的主要原因。⽬前来看9⽉降息25BP的预期仍 然稳定，关注下周全球央⾏年会上鲍威尔的表达。我们对⻩⾦维持趋势看 多的判断。 重点资讯： 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-15 美国PPI超预期上⾏，贵⾦属短线调整 1）美国7月PPI同比升3.3%，为今年2月以来最高水平，预期升2. 5%，前值从升2.3%修正为升2.4%；环比升0.9%，为2022年6月以来最 大涨幅，预期升0.2%，前值持平。美国7月核心PPI同比升3.7%，预期 升2.9%，前值升2.6%；环比升0.9%，预期升0.2%，前值持平。 2）美国上周初请失业金人数为22.4万人，预期22.8万人，前值从22. 6万人修正为22.7万人；四周均值为22.175万人，前值22.075万人。 美国至8月2日当周续请失业金人数为195.3万人，预期196.4万人， 前值从197.4万人修正为196.8万人。 3）对于9月降息，美联储内部分歧 ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 钢材周度供需数据解读 2025年08月14日 研究员: 会美 从业资格号 P03122523 投资咨询号 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099555 投资咨询号 薛原 从业资格号 F03100055 投资咨询号 申宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144359 投资咨询号 钟宏 从业资格号 F0318286 投资咨询号 Z0019832 Z0020955 Z0021807 Z0022199 Z0022727 供给：螺纹产量220.45万吨（-0.73）,同比-0.33%；热卷产量315.59万吨（+0.7）,同比+0.22%;五大材产量871.63万吨（+2.42）,同比-0.28%。 库存:螺纹库存587.19万吨（+30.51）,同比+5.48%;热卷库存357.47万吨（+0.84）,同比+0.24%;五大材库存1415.97万吨（+40.61）,同比+2.95%。 简评，铜厂复产检绘并存，螺纹钢及热卷产量变化不大。钢联消息称。本周存在大量螺纹钢文割资源陆载到港。以及之前受台风影响的货物批起入库。螺纹钢年序增加阴显、需求燃炎回降。热卷出口很 ...