投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-11-18 隔夜美豆下跌，双粕减仓补跌 油脂：近日或震荡盘整，关注马棕产需情况 蛋白粕：隔夜美豆下跌，双粕减仓补跌 玉米/淀粉：持续高位震荡 生猪：供应压力持续，猪价弱势运行 天然橡胶：等待驱动，区间震荡 合成橡胶：盘面暂时进入震荡整理 棉花：短期存在回调风险 白糖：反弹动力弱 纸浆：期货高位震荡，多方主导格局不变 双胶纸：纸企挺价，现货止跌 原木：基本面无明显矛盾，原木维持低位波动 风险因素：进口，天气，贸易战，宏观。 【异动品种】 蛋⽩粕观点：隔夜美⾖下跌，双粕减仓补跌 逻辑：国际⽅⾯，美联储12月降息概率走低。USDA供需报告下调美豆产量 至42.53亿蒲，单产至53蒲/英亩，分别低于市场预期的42.66亿蒲和53.1 蒲/英亩。美豆期末库存预估2.9亿蒲，低于市场预期的3.04亿蒲。全球大 豆期末库存预估1.22亿吨，低于市场预期均值1.245亿吨。USDA供需报告 下调美豆出口至1.635亿蒲，显示对出口的担忧。美豆贴水超过南美，暂 无性价比。美豆10月压榨量再创新高。巴西大豆对华出口量依然较高。南 美豆播种顺利， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-18 12⽉降息概率延续⾛低，贵⾦属调整 周⼀贵⾦属价格延续调整，随着美联储发⾔继续转鹰，12⽉降息概率进⼀ 步⾛低，同时⽩银租赁利率掉头回落，现货紧张的情绪缓解，⾦银同步维 持调整格局。短期市场预计进⼊预期抢跑后的价格回归阶段，贵⾦属降波 调整持续，关注本周美国GDP及⾮农数据披露。 重点资讯： 1）随着美国政府"停摆"结束，各州正在重新启动"补充营养援助 计划"（SNAP）救济金的发放工作，但与此同时，"大而美"税收与 支出法案对SNAP体系的全面收紧也正式生效。国会预算办公室预计， 新规将使全美约30万人最终失去SNAP资格。 2）日本经济财政政策会议会议纪要显示，日本央行行长植田和男表 示，日本央行正在追求一个能确保平稳着陆的利率水平；潜在通胀率 仍低于目标水平，因此将维持宽松的货币政策立场；从以稳定方式实 现2%通胀目标的角度来看，长期维持过于宽松的货币政策存在风险。 3）美国11月纽约联储制造业指数为18.7，为2024年11月以来新高， 预期5.8，前值10.7；就业指数为6.6，前值6.2；新订单指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-11-18 股债跷跷板⾏情 股指期货：时间换空间，哑铃配置过渡。 股指期权：备兑防御为主。 国债期货：资⾦⾯扰动或有限。 股指期货方面，时间换空间，哑铃配置过渡。周一权益市场窄幅震荡 为主，主要指数收绿居多，其中全A指数跌0.15%，风格层面，哑铃结构占 优，配置属性偏向防御化特征。同时量能在2万亿之下，事件空窗期资金 进攻意愿降低。近期外部纷争对市场情绪产生一定压制，但中性基准判断 不会出现地区冲突，故扰动偏短期。同时，我们认为短期走出震荡的可能 性也偏低，其一，纳斯达克ETF出现高溢价，而这一状态多数出现在A股偏 好回调的周期中，其二，12月重要会议时点尚远，暂不支持政策炒作的基 础。故持有哑铃结构度过过渡期，以时间换空间，静态春躁行情启动。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡走弱，沪指单日收 跌0.46%。期权方面，各个品种成交额小幅回升7.78%，但依旧位于10月以 来流动性的较低位置。期权情绪指标走势偏弱，尤其以50、300等大盘相 关品种的降幅较深，期权交易情绪伴随风格切换。期权隐含波动率平均下 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-18 地缘动荡⽀撑油价，甲醇和⼄⼆醇累库 速度超预期 俄罗斯一关键港口恢复运营的迹象，与影响油价的广泛地缘政治风险 相互作用，原油价格延续震荡整理。上周五，因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港设施 遇袭，曾促使原油价格上涨超2%。11月16日已有两艘油轮停靠该港口，这 表明港口运营活动已逐步恢复。交易商同时也在密切关注特朗普政府针对 委内瑞拉的相关计划，特朗普周日表示，不排除与委内瑞拉政府展开谈判 的可能性。随着针对俄罗斯两大主要石油生产商的新一轮制裁即将生效， 近日俄罗斯石油的交易价格已大幅折价。据Argus的数据显示，目前其油 价处于两年半以来的最低水平。 板块逻辑： 原油：过剩预期强化，地缘扰动仍存 沥青：美委局势降温，沥青期价弱势震荡 高硫燃油：燃油期价弱势震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油弱势震荡 甲醇：高库存现实压制，海外扰动尚不显著，甲醇震荡偏弱 尿素：下游逢低跟进，期价震荡看待 乙二醇：装置扰动增多，新装置投产逐步兑现 PX：二甲苯货源充足，短期内调油对其分化有限，PX负荷持稳 PTA：情绪发酵告一段落，关注装置变化节奏 短 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/18 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Premier Li Qiang has no plans to meet Japanese leaders during G20 Summit. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 投资者静待美国经济数据，基本金属震 荡整理 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-11-18 有⾊观点：投资者静待美国经济数据，基本⾦属震荡整理 交易逻辑：当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通 过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦 政府"停摆"，这意味着近期堆积未发布的经济数据将密集公布，投资者 重新审视，12月美联储降息预期有所降温，整体来看，宏观面预期反复， 但整体稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，比如：铜等， 并且，海外铝冶炼再现扰动风险。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放 缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏 紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰动继续支撑基本金属价格，但宏观预期反 复及需求一般限制价格上行高度，基本金属冲高回落，重新转为震荡整 理，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期 仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价 格走势。 铜观点：美国政府重启，铜价⾼位盘整。 氧化铝观点：库存累积速度仍旧较快，氧化铝价维 ...

仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月皮涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 板块 品种 现代 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 -0.41% -0.41% -1 08% -0.79% 16.84% 用几 12% 集运欧线 1726 7.54% 7.54% 11.10% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, polysilicon shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of polysilicon is optimistic as backward production capacity is expected to be gradually cleared. One can consider laying out long positions on dips or obtaining premium income by selling out - of - the - money put options [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - From November 12th to 13th, the polysilicon futures rebounded, with the price rising from over 51,000 yuan/ton to over 54,000 yuan/ton. After the photovoltaic industry association refuted the "reserve short - selling" rumor, market confidence was restored, and the polysilicon price rebounded rapidly [3] Fundamental Situation - In the third quarter, the monthly supply of polysilicon rose to over 130,000 tons. In November, due to the dry season in the southwest and production cuts in Yunnan and Sichuan, the supply is expected to drop rapidly to below 120,000 tons. On the demand side, terminal installation is still under pressure, and the production schedules of cells and components have declined since October. The production of silicon rods has remained high but is expected to decline, and silicon wafer prices have loosened. However, several silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, with some wafer prices increasing [4] Summary and Strategy - Polysilicon is in a policy window period, and the price fluctuates greatly. Although the terminal demand is weak and the fundamental support is limited, there are still policy expectations and strong price - support intentions from upstream enterprises. One should pay attention to the price changes of polysilicon and silicon wafers and policy implementation. Be wary of market pull - backs if spot prices weaken or policies fall short of expectations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase of 6413 thousand barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending November 7, 2025, and the decrease of 849 thousand barrels per day in net crude oil exports were the main sources of inventory accumulation. After the release of the STEO report this week, the weekly production forecast was raised to a new high of 13.862 million barrels per day, the crude oil processing volume increased by 717 thousand barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded from a low level to 89.4%. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased. However, the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 6413 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 5202 thousand barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 346 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 30 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 798 thousand barrels, compared with 498 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 945 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 4729 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 637 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 643 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 1119 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 277 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 1226 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 84 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 2524 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 633 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.862 million barrels per day, compared with 13.651 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 20.77 million barrels per day, compared with 20.356 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.028 million barrels per day, compared with 8.874 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.018 million barrels per day, compared with 3.71 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.222 million barrels per day, compared with 5.924 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil exports: 2.816 million barrels per day, compared with 4.367 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.973 million barrels per day, compared with 15.256 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 89.4%, compared with 86% in the previous period [6].