i 自 限公司 npany Limited IEEPA关税失效引发抢出口预期,碳酸锂开盘大涨 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 风险因素:政策变动;供应端超预期复产;需求不及预期 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z0021453 量新动态及原因 今日碳酸锂价格开盘增仓大涨，主力合约一度涨超8％。价格上涨主要原因是特朗普IEEPA关税被判违法引起的轮出口预期带来的。新华社报道，当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗 取府核靠'国际紧急经济及力法'(IEEPA) 征收的一揽子全球关税缺乏法律依据。因此无效，判决公布后，特朗普迅速宣布将通过其他法律手段推出新的10%全球关税。为明150天。相较于此 前，关税整体降低10%，可能会刺激出口需求的增加。此外，当前供需基本面偏强，市场预期节后紧平衡局面延续，同时春节期间，资金情绪有所修复, 基本面情况 从基本面来看，当下碳酸锂基本面仍然较强，资金筒维对价格影响较大。1-2月供应维持相时强劲，虽有部分企业检修减产，但整体处于高位;同时需求表现较好，下游在价格回调后备货积 极 ...

股市⻛格偏向IM，债市维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-24 股指期货：春节外围交易科技事件，⽀撑IM⻛格 股指期权：续持买权防御 国债期货：短期债市维持震荡 股指期货方面，春节外围交易科技事件，支撑IM风格。春节假日期 间，港股偏弱势下行，其中恒科再创2025年8月以来新低；美股三大指 数、富时中国A50震荡收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数探底回升。主要交易 三大事件，一是美伊谈判出现波折，地缘局势紧张，推高避险和战略商品 价格；二是春晚效应，AI应用、机器人等在春晚高频出现，催化港股新质 生产力板块活跃；三是海外科技事件，谷歌发布更强模型、特斯拉无人车 投产提前，推动美股科技巨头企稳反弹。而春节消费方面，春运人员流动 量、春节档电影总场次预计创历史新高。 假期事件对权益市场的影响中 性偏积极，节后港股开门红，三大指数均高开收涨。A股开市预计也将延 续温和上行，但斜率较1月放缓，核心计价春节消费偏暖与科技事件热 点，风格偏向IM。同时也需注意，节后进入重要会议窗口期，政策看涨期 权即将兑现，"春季躁动"或进入尾声，建议持有IM多单。 股指期 ...

研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 8:欧洲原油库存 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 ...

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-13 非农数据好于预期，铂钯价格小幅回落 据CNBC报道，隔夜公布的美国1⽉⾮农就业数据⼈⼝好于预期，失业率出 现下降。今⽇美元指数⼩幅⾛强，铂钯价格承压下⾏。据同花顺数据，截 ⾄2026年2⽉12⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价544.9元/克，跌幅 1.05%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为430.05元/克，跌幅1.48%。 铂观点：美国非农数据好于预期，铂金小幅回落 主要逻辑：据CNBC,美国1月非农就业人数增加13万，高于预期，失业率降 至4.3%。今日美元指数小幅走强，铂金价格承压回落。短期来看，当前欧 洲对俄罗斯铂族金属制裁预期抬升、美伊地缘问题反复、美联储降息预期 波动均持续扰动市场，加之长假临近资金交投趋于谨慎，市场仍处于震荡 整理的阶段。长期来看，美国仍处于降息通道中，特朗普造成的美联储独 立性受损和全球政治经济秩序松动，促使美元信用走弱的长期趋势延续， 有利于价格长期弹性的释放。策略方面，本周铂钯比值回落到偏低位区 间，建议择机关注多铂空钯机会。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-13 股市领涨⾏业再度切换，债市⽌盈动⼒ 或有所上升 股指期货：领涨⾏业再度切换 股指期权：续持买权防御为主 国债期货：⽌盈动⼒或有所上升 股指期货方面，领涨行业再度切换。周四权益市场偏暖为主，双创风 格领涨，中证500、中证1000表现次之，电子、电新、计算机活跃，领涨 行业切换至成长。与此同时，关注到A股、港股表现割裂，恒生科技下 跌，部分资金担心港股节日期间拖累A股的可能性。从港股回撤原因来 看，与多方面因素有关，一是2月港股IPO提速，影响微观流动性，二是科 技股面临外卖等事件冲击，三是日韩等亚太市场近期强势，不排除资金分 流的可能。对于前述猜测，目前认为可能性偏低，一方面，港股相较前高 已累积一定跌幅，与美股走势有脱敏的可能性，另一方面，美元指数上行 势头止住，流动性层面利于配置。综上，仍建议配置IM多单。 股指期权方面，续持买权防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡整理。期权方 面，各个品种市场成交额有所反弹，但相较于前两周市场波动下的流动性 升温，本周期权交投量能依旧相对平稳。隐含波动率日内走势整体偏强， 考虑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-13 节前需求回落，盘⾯表现承压 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。铁矿⽯ 总库存压⼒持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期⼀般，盘⾯表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进⼊尾 声，需求⽀撑有限，盘⾯低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价 格。 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。铁矿石 总库存压力持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进入尾 声，需求支撑有限，盘面低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价 格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，钢厂补库基本结 束，预计节前现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in the US has postponed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, and precious metals have entered a stage of shock consolidation. The market has postponed the next interest rate cut from June to July. Spot gold remains above $5000, and after a significant pullback from the historical high at the beginning of the month, it has recovered about half of the decline. The market has shifted from the "accelerated rise" stage to the "macro - verification" driven stage [1]. - For gold, the sentiment has ebbed, the logic remains unchanged, but the upward rhythm has slowed down. For silver, high volatility continues, and the structural supply shortage still exists [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Firstly, the non - farm payrolls in January were stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, strengthening the Fed's inclination to keep interest rates unchanged, which put pressure on the gold price. Secondly, the US dollar index remained relatively stable, and the US Treasury yields rebounded, resulting in a lack of trend - driving force for precious metals in the short term. Thirdly, the gold price soared to a new historical high driven by speculative buying, then pulled back about 13% in two days, and has now recovered about half of the decline, indicating a shift from momentum - driven to macro - verification - driven [1]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, geopolitical disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, and the global asset re - allocation trend still provide core support. The structural logic of the previous rise has not changed fundamentally, but the upward rhythm will be more moderate, and the volatility will be significantly lower than that in the previous accelerated stage [1]. Silver - **Logic**: Firstly, silver is more sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar. After the release of strong employment data, its volatility increased, and the daily amplitude was significantly higher than that of gold. Secondly, silver has fallen about 30% from its historical high on January 29th, and the recovery process is more intense, indicating that its small market capacity and low liquidity lead to amplified elasticity. Thirdly, in terms of supply and demand, the silver market is expected to be in a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year. Investment demand is still the core variable. The tight inventory pattern in the Chinese market has not been fully alleviated, and the exchange has strengthened management of the delivery process, which may suppress some speculative squeezing behavior in the short term [2]. - **Outlook**: Overall, silver is in a game between the pressure on its financial attributes and the structural supply shortage. Its price path depends more on the confirmation of the macro direction. Once the real interest rate falls again, the elasticity of the silver price may be reflected again [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: No detailed information provided. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [41]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on February 11, 2026, is 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a decline of 1.35% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.30% in the past month, and an increase of 11.61% since the beginning of the year [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural sector showed a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, with different trends and influencing factors for each sub - industry [1] - Different agricultural products have different outlooks, such as some are expected to oscillate, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to strengthen [1][2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Futures prices declined due to light pre - holiday spot trading and capital flight. Supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is ample. Palm oil is about to enter the destocking stage. Demand depends on biodiesel policies and export performance. It is recommended to consider buying hedging at low callback levels [1][5][6] - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by export expectations and South American weather, and are operating in the range of 1130 - 1160. Domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. After the festival, prices are expected to be weak. It is not recommended to chase up prices before the festival [7] - **Corn**: Affected by industry news and sentiment, futures are strongly volatile. After the festival, focus on traders' delivery and inventory replenishment rhythms [9] - **Pigs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to be weak before and after the Spring Festival. The industry is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and prices may pick up in the second half of the year [10] - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates slowly before the festival, maintaining an upward trend. The current trading logic is mainly macro - influenced, and the fundamentals are relatively weak but the expectations are good. The market is expected to remain volatile [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market maintains a high - level range - bound pattern. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium term [15] - **Cotton**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The price has rebounded slightly. After the festival, with the arrival of the peak demand season, the price may strengthen. In the long - term, it is expected to be volatile and strong [16] - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the expected global supply surplus in the new sugar - making season [17] - **Pulp**: The spot price is almost stagnant, and the futures fluctuate independently. The supply - demand is weak before the festival and is expected to improve after the festival. The futures are expected to be volatile [18] - **Double - Glue Paper**: The market is winding down at the end of the year, and the price rebounds with reduced positions. Before the festival, the trading is weak, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term and volatile and weak in the range [19] - **Logs**: The pre - holiday trading is basically stagnant. The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, and there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term without new positive factors [21] 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - **Oils and Fats**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Protein Meal**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Corn and Starch**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Pigs**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Sugar**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Pulp and Double - Glue Paper**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Logs**: Not provided with specific data analysis content 3.3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities all showed an upward trend on February 12, 2026. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.49%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.53%, the industrial products index increased by 0.42%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.29%. The agricultural product index increased by 0.44% on that day, with a 0.56% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.71% change in the past month, and a 0.20% increase since the beginning of the year [182][183]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to oscillate, with the market awaiting the clarification of geopolitical situations. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of over 370,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in 2026 [2]. - The weekly production of the chemical industry generally increased in the week approaching the Spring Festival, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese refineries also showed an upward trend. The probability of significant market fluctuations before the festival is low. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [2]. - Overall, coal prices are stabilizing, while crude oil and chemical prices continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and risks remain high around the holiday. The fundamentals of the current crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors dominate the price fluctuations, and the market risks are relatively large during the Spring Festival. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [7]. - **Asphalt**: The tight supply of raw materials is gradually easing, and the futures price is oscillating. The long - term valuation of asphalt is expected to decline as the supply of heavy oil is expected to be abundant in the future, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium. The long - term supply increase of heavy oil will put pressure on the price, and the short - term focus is on the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward oscillation of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **PX**: The demand support before the festival is insufficient. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the price has回调 in the short term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the price is in a range - bound consolidation. The seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is large, but the processing fee still has some support in the short term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillation is mainly affected by crude oil prices and market sentiment. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term, and the market has a large divergence in the Q2 fundamentals [13]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has become marginally looser. The upward momentum has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The import volume in the second quarter has been revised downwards, and there is a weak repair expectation for supply - demand. The price has limited downside [17]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the trading is light. The price will follow the movement of upstream products [21]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has declined. The price will follow the cost fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The coastal trading has been suspended before the festival, and the inventory discharge in the inland is coming to an end. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [23]. - **Urea**: The pre - festival orders are coming to an end, and the sustainability of sentiment boost may be limited. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has the expectation of a peak season after the Spring Festival [25]. - **LLDPE**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the long holiday. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the focus is on the return of demand after the festival [27]. - **PP**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival. It is advisable to hold light positions. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot market, it oscillates. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [29]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it oscillates. The market sentiment has weakened, and the support from "export rush" has diminished [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The comprehensive profit is poor, and it weakly stabilizes. The chlorine - alkali profit is poor, but the futures price has a high premium, and it is expected to oscillate before the festival [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different varieties are given, such as the spreads between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., along with their changes [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the catalog mentions monitoring for multiple varieties, no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, featured index, and plate index are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, with the energy index having a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 2.79%, a 1 - month increase of 4.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.50% [276][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most new energy materials rising. Shipping futures led the gains, while chemical products led the losses [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened, and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are gradually increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and short - term dips can be used for bottom - fishing. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.40%. New energy materials mostly rose, with lithium carbonate up 3.66%. Basic metals mostly rose, with Shanghai nickel up 1.79%. Agricultural and sideline products all rose, with apples up 1.73%. Energy products all rose, with fuel oil up 1.09%. Chemical products led the losses, with butadiene rubber down 1.93%. Oils and fats mostly fell, with palm oil down 1.50%. Precious metals were mixed, with palladium down 1.48%. Black series all fell, with ferrosilicon down 1.47%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.78% [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 12, 2026, among stock index futures, CSI 500 futures rose 1.31%, and CSI 1000 futures rose 1.09%. Among Treasury bond futures, 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.06%, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 108 pips [9]. - **Industry Index**: On February 12, 2026, among the中信 industry indices, non - ferrous metals rose 0.98%, and machinery rose 1.29%, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell 1.48%, and consumer services fell 1.75% [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On February 11, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 1.45%, ICE Brent oil rose 1.21%, COMEX gold rose 1.53%, and LME nickel rose 3.29% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 12, 2026, the container shipping European line rose 5.27%, lithium carbonate rose 12.33% weekly, and iron ore fell 0.11% daily [14][15][16]. 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Finance**: Before the holiday, it may be volatile. Stock index futures may be volatile and slightly stronger, stock index options should continue to hold call options for defense, Treasury bond futures are supported by monetary easing expectations, and gold and silver are in a stage of adjustment with reduced capital enthusiasm [5]. - **Shipping**: The OOCL's March online price is $3130/FEU, and the market is in a state of shrinking trading volume and consolidation before the holiday [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, contradictions are accumulating, and the market is under pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [5]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The expected trading of "Woshi Eagle" is weakening, and basic metals stop falling and are volatile. Nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Concerns about the Middle East situation continue to disrupt oil prices, and the chemical industry continues to be in a state of volatile consolidation [6]. - **Agriculture**: Optimistic sentiment supports US soybeans, and domestic double - meal is mainly volatile. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, and the pig price is running at a low level [6].