Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 13, gold and silver prices broke through strongly. Gold entered a trend - accelerating phase after breaking through $4200, and silver reached a new high. The rise was driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, data vacuum, and tight supply - demand patterns [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Key Information - President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The House voted to restart food aid, pay federal employees, and restore the air traffic control system [2]. - 80% of surveyed economists believe the Fed will cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to support the weak labor market [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain, expressing China's willingness to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with Spain [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: After breaking through $4200, gold entered a trend - strengthening phase, catalyzed by the reinforcement of interest rate cut expectations, data vacuum amplifying weak economic pricing, and the approaching inflection point of the balance sheet. Expectations of a December interest rate cut advanced, real interest rates declined, and the dollar's rebound was limited [3]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures main contract reached a new high, and London silver also rose. The rise was due to the return of interest rate cut trading, a clear path of balance - sheet expansion, and tight spot supply. High lease rates indicated a tight spot balance, and silver's relative elasticity to gold remained high [3]. Outlook - Attention should be paid to the release schedule of US employment and inflation data from September - October and the policy inclination of Fed officials' speeches. If the December interest rate cut path is confirmed and there are further balance - sheet expansion signals, precious metals will remain in an upward - trending macro window. The price ranges to watch are [4150 - 4320] dollars per ounce for London gold and [52 - 55] dollars per ounce for London silver [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The commodity index was 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2223.17, down 0.01% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 13, 2025, the precious metals index was 3445.50, with a daily increase of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 5.93%, a 1 - month increase of 1.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 55.73% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index was 1352.02, up 0.54% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - **Main Logic**: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - **Urea**: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - **PX**: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - **PTA**: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - **Short - fiber**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - **Propylene**: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - **PP**: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - **Plastic**: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the actual supply and demand of new energy metals are favorable. Lithium carbonate is leading the rise, and short - long opportunities for lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply and demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **View**: The expectation of organic silicon production cuts suppresses the upward movement of silicon prices. The medium - term outlook is for prices to remain volatile [7]. - **Analysis of Information**: As of October 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% month - on - month increase and a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to October, cumulative production was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, cumulative exports were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 461,400 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase. Organic silicon monomer plants plan to cut production by 30% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest has led to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most southwest silicon plants will enter shutdown and maintenance. Northwest supply has shown small fluctuations with no obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November. If the organic silicon production cuts are implemented, demand will also fall. The increase in aluminum alloy demand is limited. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the futures market [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **View**: Silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, and polysilicon prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The medium - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [8]. - **Analysis of Information**: The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous value. From January to September 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations were 240.27GW, a 49.35% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Main Logic**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has refuted false rumors, and silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, which has stopped the decline of polysilicon prices. From August to October, polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, but it will contract in November due to the dry season. On the demand side, photovoltaic installations have declined since June, and downstream demand may weaken in November. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply and demand of polysilicon, but production will decrease during the dry season, and policy expectations remain, so prices are expected to remain in wide - range volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, and lithium prices are oscillating at high levels. The short - term outlook is for prices to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Analysis of Information**: On November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.46% to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 33,593 lots to 1,038,019 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. Australian lithium miner Liontown will conduct its first auction of 10,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate on November 19, 2025 [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is expected to continue to decline from November to December. However, supply expectations are unstable, which may cause large price fluctuations. SMM monthly production has continued to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts lithium salt supply. Apparent demand is currently good, and production schedules from November to December are expected to remain strong. Social inventory is continuing to decline, and warehouse receipts have recently stabilized. In the medium - to - short - term, the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [12]. 3.2 Market Monitoring 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No detailed content provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2,269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2,577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2,223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index was 1,352.02, up 0.54%. The new energy commodity index was 433.60, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 3.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.14% [54][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown has boosted investors' optimism, and the macro - outlook is expected to be stable. The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. The actual supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten. It is optimistic about the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin. In the short - and medium - term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, but weak actual demand may limit price increases. [2] - The report provides individual views on various non - ferrous metals: copper prices are expected to oscillate and recover; alumina prices will maintain an oscillating trend; aluminum prices will continue to rise; aluminum alloy prices will oscillate upwards; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate upwards; nickel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will rise significantly. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views Copper - Macro factors: The signing of the temporary appropriation bill by Trump has revived market optimism, pulling up copper prices. - Supply - demand: Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, processing fees are low, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen. The production of electrolytic copper has declined, and terminal demand is weak, but the acceptance of copper prices by downstream users is increasing. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [7] Alumina - Information: Inventory is accumulating rapidly, and spot prices are stable. - Main logic: High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the supply contraction is not obvious. The market is in a state of over - supply, but the valuation is low, so the price may fluctuate. - Outlook: Alumina prices will maintain an oscillating trend. [7] Aluminum - Information: The price has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and exports have declined. - Main logic: The macro - environment is positive, the domestic supply is at a high level with some restrictions, and overseas supply has disturbances. The terminal demand is stable, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the price center may rise in the medium - term. [9][10][11] Aluminum Alloy - Information: The price has increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. - Main logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply is affected by various factors, and demand has marginally improved. - Outlook: The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - and medium - term. [12][13] Zinc - Information: The export window has opened, and the supply of zinc ore has become looser. - Main logic: The macro - environment is optimistic, the short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the smelting profit is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. - Outlook: Zinc prices will oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term. [14][17] Lead - Information: The social inventory is low, and the price has increased. - Main logic: The spot premium has decreased slightly, the supply has increased, and the demand is in the peak season. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [18][19] Nickel - Information: LME inventory is accumulating, and domestic inventory is balanced through exports. - Main logic: Market sentiment dominates the market, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. [20][23] Stainless Steel - Information: Nickel iron prices have declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Main logic: The cost support has weakened, production has increased, and demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices will maintain an interval oscillation. [24][25] Tin - Information: Supply disruptions are continuous, and prices have increased significantly. - Main logic: Supply disruptions in Wa State and Indonesia have tightened the supply, and the domestic ore supply is also tight. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [26][27] II. Market Monitoring There is no specific content provided for market monitoring in the text, so it cannot be summarized. III. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index increased by 0.47% to 2269.39, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.54% to 2577.33, the industrial products index decreased by 0.01% to 2223.17, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.54% to 1352.02. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.67% on November 13, 2025, with a 5 - day increase of 1.51%, a 1 - month increase of 2.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.77%. [149][150]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is recommended for a dumbbell - style allocation, while the bond market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach a 10 - year high, with the price - rising chain actively advancing. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals led the gains, driven by factors such as increased demand for lithium batteries from energy storage, policy support for new energy integration, and a rebound in international precious metal prices. The preferred allocation of the price - rising chain is gradually being realized, and the cost - effectiveness of value factor allocation has increased [3][7]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points were - 8.47, - 1.07, - 19.89, - 24.58 respectively, with changes of - 7.57, - 3.56, - 0.64, 3.6 points compared to the previous trading day; their inter - period spreads (current - month - next - month) were 16.6, 3.8, 66.4, 87.6 points, with changes of - 0.4, - 0.2, - 2.4, - 0.8 points; and their positions changed by - 13919, - 1167, - 19353, - 20677 lots respectively [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a combination of dividend ETF and IM long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: After the market recovered, the trading volume of each option variety showed a slight weakening trend. The weighted implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options decreased by 1.18%, and the position PCR of each variety strengthened, indicating a warming of market sentiment. However, from a weekly perspective, the varieties were weak first and then strong, still at a weekly high. Due to the recent rotation of market styles and the lack of a clear capital main line, it is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns [3][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold covered options [7][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures fell across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by - 0.10%, - 0.08%, - 0.01%, and - 0.26% respectively. The bond market was weak, affected by the rebound of the A - share market and the rebound of commodity - related varieties. The overnight shibor rate was 1.3150%, down 10.00 basis points, indicating relatively abundant market liquidity. The central bank achieved a net injection of 9.72 billion yuan through 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, which helped to stabilize market expectations. However, the bond market interest rate rose, and the decline of treasury bond futures may be mainly due to the improvement of market risk preference. Currently, after the treasury bond trading, the bond market has been in a volatile state, and the focus of market speculation is when and how the redemption new rules will be implemented [4][8]. - **Data**: Data on trading volume, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis points of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts are provided, along with their daily changes [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, expect a slightly stronger and volatile trend; for hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels; for basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage strategies and basis widening; for curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - Economic data such as China's new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply growth rate from January to October 2025 are presented, along with predicted and actual values. Data for China's October social consumer goods retail总额 annual rate and above - scale industrial added value annual rate are yet to be released [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The central bank announced that in the first 10 months, RMB loans increased by 1.497 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment accumulated to 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 383 billion yuan. M2, M1, and M0 data are also provided [11]. - The Financial Regulatory总局 will release a revised "Management Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support corporate mergers, acquisitions, and transformations. It is also researching policies to promote the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [12]. - US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending a 43 - day government shutdown [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the black产业链 are still limited, and the steel market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The inventory of rebar is decreasing, while the destocking of hot - rolled coils is not smooth. The increase in Tangshan's hot metal production corresponds to the previous concentrated resumption of blast furnaces, but considering the arrival of the maintenance season, hot metal output is expected to decline, and iron ore inventory will continue to increase marginally. Coke has no prominent contradictions and maintains a small - scale destocking. Although coking coal inventory has increased, it is mainly in the Mongolian coal import segment, and the overall inventory is low, so the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. Overall, the current industry's supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the short - term oscillation trend remains unchanged. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts in the later stage, attention can be paid to potential phased upward opportunities [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - After the resumption of work in Tangshan's blast furnaces last week, the output of hot metal in Tangshan has increased, driving up the national hot metal output. However, with the arrival of the steel mill maintenance season, especially in northern steel mills, maintenance plans have been announced one after another. Therefore, it is expected that hot metal output will continue to decline, and iron ore is likely to accumulate inventory, putting pressure on ore prices. In the short term, ore prices will maintain an oscillatory operation. The fundamentals of scrap steel show weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. Coupled with strong cost support, the expectation of a fourth round of price increases is high. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supplementary effect is limited. Although the downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and it is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [3] 3.3 Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand situation is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is also relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, and the bottom support is obvious. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][14] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the futures price oscillates at a low level. The spot market trading is average, mainly with low - price transactions. Recently, the profits of steel mills and electric furnaces are poor, the steel production has decreased significantly, and the demand has also declined. The overall steel inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. In the off - season, the demand is under pressure to weaken, and the futures valuation is low, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy aspects [7] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The hot metal output has significantly recovered, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The spot price has weakened. The overseas mine shipping is relatively stable, and the arrival of ships has decreased. The daily average hot metal output has recovered, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The port inventory has increased, and the overall inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. Although there is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, the short - term increase in hot metal and the un - released restocking demand may lead to a short - term oscillatory strengthening. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and hot metal demand changes [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The daily consumption of steel mills has slightly decreased, and the price oscillates. The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand is also weak. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [8] 3.5.4 Coke - The supply continues to decline, and the hot metal output has increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply has decreased due to high costs, environmental protection requirements, and some coke oven maintenance. The demand has increased as some blast furnaces have resumed full - production. The upstream coke enterprise inventory remains low. In the off - season, the supply - demand is weak, but the demand support still exists, and the fundamentals have few contradictions. After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is still supported, and the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [8][10][11] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The supply recovery is limited, and the upstream inventory has slightly increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply is still tight due to production capacity restrictions in some coal mines. The Mongolian coal import is at a high level, but the high - quality resources are still scarce. The coke production has declined, and the downstream procurement has slowed down, but the upstream coal mine inventory has slightly increased with little pressure. The spot price is still firm. It is expected that the coking coal supply will remain tight, and the price will oscillate [12] 3.5.6 Glass - The destocking this week is limited. Attention should be paid to whether supply reduction through cold - repair can promote upstream destocking. The macro environment is neutral. The short - term supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The spot trading is good, and the futures price oscillates. The macro environment is neutral. The supply has limited changes, and the demand is stable. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support has strengthened, but the downstream demand is declining, and the expected surplus is intensifying. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [14] 3.5.8 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The tender price of HBIS is flat, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve. The cost increase supports the bottom of the futures price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the price increase driving force is insufficient. The downstream demand is expected to decline, and the new production capacity is about to be put into use, so the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The pricing of HBIS has slightly increased, but the price is under pressure due to loose supply - demand. The cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price increase driving force is limited. The production reduction is limited, and the market destocking is difficult. The downstream demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16][17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial product index is 2223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.02, up 0.54% [100] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on November 13, 2025, is 1983.80, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a decline of 0.30% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.57% in the past month, and a decline of 5.90% since the beginning of the year [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 13th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodity futures advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver, polysilicon and apples, while the top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil and crude oil [10][11][12]. - Silver prices may rise further if gold prices maintain a volatile and strong trend and the US dollar continues to pull back; 20 -号胶 prices are likely to maintain a bottom - volatile trend with strong elasticity but may face downward adjustment pressure; crude oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [17][26][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 13th, China's financial futures: IC and IM both gained 1.7%; TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, most advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [9]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver (up 5.5% with open interest decreasing 1.6% month - on - month), polysilicon (up 3.7% with open interest increasing 2.4% month - on - month) and apples (up 3.3% with open interest up 13.0% month - on - month). The top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil (down 4.4% with open interest falling 10.6% month - on - month), fuel oil (down 3.7% with open interest increasing 20.9% month - on - month) and crude oil (down 3.7% with open interest decreasing 19.3% month - on - month) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On November 13th, silver rose 5.5% to 12,588 yuan/kg. London market supply tightness alleviated in October, with silver inventories in London vaults surging by about 54 million ounces. Spot prices are supported by capital momentum and have broken through the previous psychological threshold. Weak corporate confidence and slowing employment may lead to further strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, supporting silver prices [15][16][17]. - **TSR20**: On November 13th, TSR20 rose 1.8% to 12,400 yuan/ton. China entered the rubber - tapping suspension period in November, and RU - related themes still have speculation space. The supply - demand pattern of natural rubber has not changed significantly, but from a seasonal perspective, rubber prices may face downward adjustment pressure [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On November 13th, crude oil fell 3.7% to 449.5 yuan/barrel. API data showed US crude oil inventories continued to build up and refined oil inventories declined last week. OPEC revised down its global supply - demand balance forecast, while EIA indicated US crude oil production remains resilient. Oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [32][33][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the SCO Member States in Moscow from November 17 - 18, pay an official visit to Zambia from November 19 - 20, and attend the 20th G20 Summit in Johannesburg from November 21 - 23 [40]. 2.2 Industry News - The market value of A - shares held by foreign investors currently exceeds RMB 3.5 trillion, and efforts will be made to include more futures and options products in the scope of opening - up [41]. - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume and turnover of China's national futures market increased by 14.86% and 21.82% year - on - year, respectively [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be fluctuating upward, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing a bias towards strengthening [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Forecasted to have a fluctuating upward trend, including soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: Anticipated to be fluctuating strongly in the short - term [6]. - **Hogs**: Predicted to be fluctuating weakly, with a "weak present + strong future" pattern [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to maintain a bottom - fluctuating and high - elasticity trend [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Suggested to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: Forecasted to have a short - term range - bound fluctuation and a long - term upward trend [13]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly in the medium - to - long - term and range - bound between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. - **Pulp**: Anticipated to be fluctuating, with a divergence between futures and spot markets [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Forecasted to have a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible first - rising - then - falling trend [17]. - **Logs**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, macro - environment, and industry policies. It provides short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: The market is affected by factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic soybean imports. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating upward, with different trends for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Market expectations are that the supply - demand report will be bullish. With the US soybean harvest nearing completion and South American soybean sowing progressing smoothly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a fluctuating upward trend [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The short - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and prices are expected to be fluctuating strongly. However, there may be pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to new grain listings [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term supply is large, but long - term supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro - environment, rubber prices are rising. However, there may be downward pressure on prices without strong expectations or macro - driving forces [9][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is rebounding, but due to weak fundamentals and raw material pressure, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: After the digestion of previous bullish factors, short - term upward momentum is weak. With increased supply expectations, prices may have a short - term correction, but the cost of new cotton provides support [13]. - **Sugar**: In the international and domestic markets, there is downward pressure on sugar prices in the medium - to - long - term due to expected supply surpluses. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is driven by capital, while the spot market is affected by factors such as weak demand and supply pressure. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market may show a first - rising - then - falling trend, with price rebounds in November and potential declines in December and the first quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand weakness, and inventory trends. Prices are expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 3.2 Key Information and Data - **Sugar**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Sugar 01 contract closed at 5512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [1][13][15]. - **Protein Meals**: On November 12, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 238 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.06% from the previous day; US West soybeans at 225 cents/bushel, down 20 cents/bushel or 8.16%; South American soybeans at 220 cents/bushel, up 3 cents/bushel or 1.38%. On November 13, the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was - 70.4 yuan/ton, up 26.32 yuan/ton or - 27.21% from the previous day [4][5]. - **Corn**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [6]. - **Hogs**: On November 13, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 11.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the live hog futures (active contract) was 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: On November 13, the RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of STR20 in the free trade zone was 1860, up 10 [9]. - **Cotton**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract closed at 13490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The number of 24/25 annual warehouse receipts was 2220, down 15; the number of 25/26 annual warehouse receipts was 1960, up 311 [13]. - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Pacific pulp was 5465 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of Silver Star pulp was 5565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [15]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Macro - environment**: The end of the US government shutdown, the release of US economic data, the Fed's monetary policy, and OPEC's adjustment of global oil demand forecasts all have an impact on the agricultural product market [4][9]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply factors include factors such as planting area, yield, and import volume; demand factors include factors such as consumption and inventory. For example, the expected increase in sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil, and the new grain listing of corn all affect market supply; the consumption of soybean meal and the inventory of hogs affect market demand [1][4][5][6][7][13][15]. - **Industry policies**: Policies such as import policies for sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder, and the government's attention to hog production reduction all have an impact on the market [7][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although the US dollar liquidity seems to be in a short - term tight situation, it will not have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7] - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the October inflation data. In addition, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [7] - **Asset Views**: In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology - related events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the overcrowding of small - cap funds. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. Concerns include the lower - than - expected liquidity in the options market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the performance of the US fundamentals, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season has passed, and there is pressure on loading with no upward drivers. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Steel**: There is limited market driving force, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production is stable in the short term, and the market is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Coke**: Market sentiment is average, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, and there is an obvious divergence between futures and spot. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Silicon Iron**: There is still cost support, and attention is paid to the final pricing of steel tenders. Concerns include raw material costs and steel tender situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation is loose, suppressing the market, and the futures price is mainly oscillating at a low level. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Glass**: The inventory contradiction is intensifying, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Concerns include spot sales. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the cost - driven upward movement is limited. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Alumina**: The fundamental situation is still in surplus, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include the failure of ore production to recover as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Aluminum**: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is oscillating upward. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and lower - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro - turning risks and the over - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Lead**: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Nickel**: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and over - expected demand growth. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Tin**: Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest region has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include over - expected supply cuts and over - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectations are fluctuating, and caution is needed for significant price fluctuations. Concerns include lower - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.5 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **LPG**: Refinery out - put has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Concerns include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the asphalt futures price is oscillating. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is oscillating, and attention is paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - **Methanol**: The high - inventory situation is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is oscillating and consolidating. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Urea**: There is still an increase in production capacity, and the futures price is under short - term pressure. Concerns include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is still production profit. There is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - **PX**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported under the situation of strong supply and demand. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy on dips" pattern, and attention is paid to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Propylene**: Inventory still needs time to be digested, and the market is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PP**: The support from maintenance is still limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Plastic**: Maintenance has decreased, and plastic is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing the market, and PVC is oscillating weakly. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a situation of low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda is oscillating. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil continues to lead the oils and fats market, and attention is paid to the USDA report. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - **Protein Meal**: The market expects the supply - demand report to be bullish, and soybean meal follows the rise of US soybeans. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, the macro environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Corn/Starch**: The short - term supply tension has not been relieved, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include demand, the macro environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Pigs**: The situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength in the pig market continues. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] 3.2.6 Agricultural Sector - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro environment, the rubber price continues to rise. Concerns include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market continues to rebound. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has slightly declined, and the upside and downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded and returned above 5500 yuan/ton. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by capital, and the long - position advantage remains unchanged. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quote fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Offset Paper**: The fundamental situation has limited changes, and offset paper is oscillating within a range. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Logs**: The port - arrival pressure first increases and then decreases, and logs are oscillating at a low level. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the current supply - demand situation of new energy metals is favorable. Lithium carbonate leads the rise in new energy metals due to accelerated inventory reduction, and short - long opportunities in lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long run, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to shrink, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [2]. - The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts. The price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes after the PV Association refutes the rumors. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are stable at 9,500 yuan/ton and 9,750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 461,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. Among them, the market inventory is 185,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the factory inventory is 277,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [7]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon is 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production is 3.469 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% [7]. - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [7]. - The newly installed PV capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest leads to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most silicon plants will enter the shutdown and maintenance stage. The supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly without obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly in November. The organic silicon DMC market operates weakly and stably, and the terminal demand is still weak. The demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. The clearance of warehouse receipts of industrial silicon supports the price [7]. - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate due to the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season and the continuous clearance of warehouse receipts, as well as the continuous fluctuation of coal prices in the short term [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: After the PV Association refutes the false rumors, the price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average成交 price is 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,850 lots, unchanged from the previous value [8]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume of polysilicon is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [8]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic PV capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [8]. - In November, the production schedule of domestic component enterprises varies. The production schedule of leading enterprises increases slightly, while most other enterprises reduce production to clear inventory. The overall production schedule in November is expected to be less than 44.5GW [8]. - **Main Logic**: The PV Association refutes the rumors and promotes industry self - discipline. The supply of polysilicon will shrink in November due to the dry season, and the production is expected to drop below 120,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November, and the downstream demand is starting to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of polysilicon is still under pressure, but the production will decrease during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the price of polysilicon, but the current inventory pressure is still large, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.05% to 86,580 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 11,610 lots to 1,004,426 lots [11]. - On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 81,100 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 984 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 lots to 28,287 lots [11]. - Australian lithium miner Liontown announced a cooperation with Metalshub to sell the spot of Kathleen Valley spodumene concentrate to global customers through its digital platform. The first auction will be held on November 19, 2025, with the target of 10,000 tons of spodumene concentrate, and a series of auction activities are planned to be launched in 2026 and later [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand are both strong, and inventory reduction is expected to continue from November to December. However, the supply expectation is uncertain, which may cause large price fluctuations. On the supply side, the monthly production of lithium carbonate continues to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts the supply of lithium salt. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand and the performance in the off - season of the first quarter of next year. The optimistic expectation of energy storage consumption will generate speculative demand when the price falls, raising the price center. The social inventory continues to be reduced, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized recently, but further decline should be vigilant. In the short - to - medium term, the resumption of production of Xianxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long run, with the optimistic demand, a bullish approach is recommended, and long positions can be appropriately bought after a pull - back [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Polysilicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) of CITIC Futures all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 0.89% on the day, 3.80% in the past 5 days, 9.13% in the past month, and 4.22% since the beginning of the year [53][54].