投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-30 流动性与定价约束显现，⾦银⾼位回调 贵⾦属整体维持强势，但内部结构明显分化。⻩⾦在降息预期、美元偏弱 与地缘不确定性⽀撑下，⾼位运⾏更偏稳态，短期以震荡消化前期涨幅为 主；⽩银在供需偏紧与⼯业需求逻辑未变的背景下仍具中期⽀撑，但前期 抛物线式上涨已显著透⽀流动性与⻛险承受能⼒，⾼波动与阶段性回调成 为⾼位运⾏的主要特征。 重点资讯： 1）中国将对数字人民币计付利息。央行明确自2026年1月1日起，银 行需对实名数字人民币钱包余额计息，计息规则遵循存款利率定价自 律机制，赋予其与商业银行存款相同的法律地位，以推动使用普及。 2）中国斡旋下柬泰停火进程取得阶段性共识。中国、泰国、柬埔寨 三国外长会晤后一致同意循序渐进巩固停火局面，推进重建互信与人 道合作，区域地缘风险边际缓和。 3）特朗普与泽连斯基会谈未形成实质性突破。尽管美乌双方称在安 全保障与和平框架部分内容上取得进展，但顿巴斯等核心问题仍待解 决，俄乌局势不确定性短期难以消退。 价格逻辑： 黄金的核心驱动仍在于全球货币宽松预期、实际利率中枢下移以及美 元信用 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-30 节前情绪走弱资金获利流出，铂钯大幅 回调 12⽉29⽇，铂钯盘尾触及跌停，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为634.35元/ 克，跌幅10%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为494.1元/克，跌幅10%。临近元旦假 期，部分资⾦在经历过⼀波⼤涨后开始获利了结，带动铂钯⼤幅回调，需 继续警惕价格⼤幅波动⻛险。 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务部正在 对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。需求方面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。综合 来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松，但短期现货紧缺导致价格坚挺，叠加美联储 再度进入降息周期，钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货紧缺叠加宏观环境偏好，预计钯金价格震荡偏强。但短期来 看，钯金或已进入调整阶段，短线或观望为宜，等待价格回调到位。多铂 空钯与内外正套建议持有或暂时获利了结。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变化； 主产区供应扰动 铂观点：假期临近资金获利流出，铂金大幅回调 主要逻辑：铂金经历回调后内外价差有 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-30 炉料表现分化，关注冬储补库 近⽇全国财政⼯作会议表⽰2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策， 政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库，基本⾯⽭盾有限，盘⾯震荡 运⾏。钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿价格表现偏强。煤焦产 业链库存增加，焦炭四轮提降开启，盘⾯表现承压。 近日全国财政工作会议表示2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，政 策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库，基本面矛盾有限，盘面震荡运 行。钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿价格表现偏强。煤焦产业 链库存增加，焦炭四轮提降开启，盘面表现承压。 ⿊⾊建材团队 研究员： 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存持续累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂 库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨，预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-30 纸浆受资金出入影响，上涨承压后阶段 回落 油脂：盘面窄幅震荡，菜油基差略涨 蛋白粕：美豆出口面临压力，国产大豆拍卖豆粕承压 玉米/淀粉：临近交割，基差回归 生猪：出栏缩量，生猪期现反弹 天然橡胶：商品巨震，胶价小幅回落 合成橡胶：原料调涨，盘面坚挺运行 棉花：棉价减仓回调 白糖：反弹高度有限，下行压力仍存 纸浆：上涨承压后阶段回落，纸浆期货走势受资金出入影响 双胶纸：市场情绪回暖，双胶偏强运行 原木：交投清淡，盘面震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：上涨承压后阶段回落，纸浆期货走势受资金出入影响 逻辑:期货昨日明显回落，现货端维持成交偏弱格局，当前期货资金主动 走势，期货涨跌与现货变化关系不大。基本面，当前利多驱动有：1、阔 叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价 格上涨仍能向下传导。随着针阔价差的收窄，阔叶浆的进一步强势预期， 一定程度上也支撑了针叶浆以及盘面的底部支撑逻辑。2、浆厂的停产带 来的供应减量预期与浆厂库存偏高形成对冲。3、浆厂实 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，铂、钯跌停 ——中信期货晨报20251230 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4610.2 | -0.61% | -0.619 | 3.08% | -0.17% | 17.58% | | | 上证50期货 | 3038 | -0.44% | -0.44% | 2.67% | 1.64% | 13.44% | | 股指 | 中证500期货 | 7336.6 | -0.70% | -0.70% | 7 883 | 0.6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-12-30 新能源观点：节前资⾦获利了结，新能源⾦属巨震 节前资金获利了结，新能源金属巨震 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，供应扰动风险增加；工业硅和多晶 硅供需趋松，但多晶硅收储平台成立，供应端收缩预期升温。中短期 来看，节前资金获利了结，碳酸锂等新能源金属巨震，但供应扰动担 忧支撑逻辑未有变化，可待碳酸锂止跌后继续关注低吸做多机会。长 期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升； 锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预 期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新审视，年度供需拐点可能提 前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：强预期VS弱现实，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：节前情绪⾛弱多头离场，碳酸锂盘中跌停。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z001666 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, before the New Year's Day, funds take profits, causing base metals to rise and then fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply and demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - Different metals have different price trends: copper prices are expected to be strong due to strong supply contraction expectations; alumina prices are under pressure with weak cost support; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong due to positive macro expectations; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with cost support; zinc prices will oscillate with non - ferrous metals due to the divergence of domestic and foreign inventory trends; lead prices may weaken in supply and demand despite rebounding with non - ferrous metals; nickel prices will oscillate due to Indonesian policy expectations; stainless steel prices will oscillate as nickel iron prices rise; tin prices will oscillate at a high level due to the resilience of rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: China's copper smelters set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to November was 11.76%. On December 29, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [7]. - Logic: The US economy is resilient, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions increase, and the long - term processing fee hits a record low. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce production, strengthening the supply contraction expectation. Demand is weak in the off - season, and LME's position limit reduces the risk of a short squeeze [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On December 29, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina rose, and the national weighted index also increased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased [7][8]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is still accumulating. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is being destocked, but there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On December 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods rose. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. South32 raised the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums to Japan [9]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Domestic production capacity is high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long term. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates [9][10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On December 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the warehouse receipt increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started trial production [11]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate increased, but there are still risks of production cuts in the medium - term. Demand may weaken marginally after the end of the automotive seasonal sales rush [11]. - Outlook: In the short - and medium - term, aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On December 29, the spot prices of zinc in different regions had different premiums to the main contract. As of December 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [12][13]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and smelter profits decline, reducing zinc ingot production. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and social inventory may decline. In the long - term, supply may increase while demand growth is limited [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, there is a possibility of price decline [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On December 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt increased slightly [14]. - Logic: The spot premium decreased, and the original - recycled price difference increased. The price of waste batteries rose, expanding the smelting profit of recycled lead, and production is expected to increase. Demand from electric bicycles weakens, and the battery factory's operating rate declines marginally [14][15]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On December 29, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB and the mineral benchmark price calculation formula [15][16][17]. - Logic: Domestic nickel production decreased in November, but Indonesian production increased, and overall supply pressure remains. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is weak. If Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the supply - demand balance will improve [18]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Some Indonesian nickel mines face fines [19]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices rise, providing cost support. Stainless steel production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [20]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On December 29, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin ingots rose [21]. - Logic: Tin supply is a major concern. Chinese imports from Myanmar increase, but there are still risks. Indonesian supply may be restricted in Q1 2026. African production is limited. Demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the growth of related industries [21]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [21]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: No specific monitoring information provided [24]. - Alumina: No specific monitoring information provided [39]. - Aluminum: No specific monitoring information provided [52]. - Aluminum Alloy: No specific monitoring information provided [65]. - Zinc: No specific monitoring information provided [76]. - Lead: No specific monitoring information provided [89]. - Nickel: No specific monitoring information provided [103]. - Stainless Steel: No specific monitoring information provided [119]. - Tin: No specific monitoring information provided [129]. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [147][149].

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月28日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点继续回落，浮仓库存延续攀升。近期海外炼厂开工率高位运行，库存累积 主要在成品油端体现，原油累库压力有阶段性放缓的迹象。陆上库存分区域看，中国原油库存连续第8周回升，此外印度、俄罗斯库存回升，欧 中东库存回落。 洲、 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: 全球陆上原油库存 35000000 3400000 3300000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 2: 全球原油浮仓 150000 120000 90000 60000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 2024 -- 2023 2022 ...

- 20251229 汇率高频追踪 册 >> 六 | 张菁 | 从业资格号 F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Z0013604 | | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | 从业资格号 F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Z0018635 | 汇率运行核心逻辑跟踪: 伴随12月FOMS会议以及美国11月失业率数据的发布，市场对未来美国失业率非线性上升的担忧再次升温，关注重点从通胀进一步 转移到劳动力市场。但4.6%的失业率数据发布后，美债长端利率下行的阈值再次增加,美债曲线继续走陡。美元继续走弱。背后的原因一方面是由于10月 美国政府停摆，家庭调查部分存在的统计问题可能影响11月数据，二是距离触发萨姆法则虽仅有一步之遥，但市场担忧是否会重现去年年底〝触及" 萨姆 法则后失业率又回落的虚假信号。在美元走弱的大背景下，人民币持续升值至7附近。同时近期离岸人民币汇率表现强于在岸，反映出海外美元走弱，国内 资产回报吸引力提升，带动外资持续流入。同时，下半年以来市场结汇意愿增强、叠加年底季节性结汇高峰，为人民币汇率提供了友好环境。但需注意的 是,近期央行中间价持续向贬值方向引导,且短端掉期点持续抬升,人民币 ...

P信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第52周 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 甘 青 从业资格号 F03124127 投资咨询号Z0023461 报告日期: 2025/12/29 2025 近2年均值 800 600 400 200 0 -50 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 本周新增专项债发行20亿,环比减少272亿, 截至12/28,新增专项债发行进度为104.0% 下周计划发行145亿 2025 | 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 5000 1.2 [ 0. 9 4000 0. 6 3000 0.3 2000 1000 -0. 3 -500 -0.5 第1周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 ...