投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-24 地缘再次扰动油价，化⼯超跌有反弹需 求 在北约表示将对俄罗斯侵犯其领空的行为做出"有力"回应后，局势 进一步升级，加剧了对于俄罗斯原油供应的担忧。北约表示，将利用包括 军事在内的一切选项来保护自己。美国国务卿重申了美国对北约组织的承 诺。与此同时，俄罗斯政府正考虑对一些公司实施柴油出口禁令，原因是 乌克兰无人机对该国石油精炼厂发起了一系列攻击。北约的表态让市场重 新关注到俄乌地缘对油价的影响，俄罗斯的成品油出口真实发生了减量。 板块逻辑： 化工贸易数据公布。大部分品种进口同比下滑，而甲醇的进口同比增 长了44%，PX进口同比增16%，纯苯进口同比也增长8.4%；出口方面表现亮 眼的品种是PVC、PE、PP和苯乙烯。聚酯链中短纤8月出口接近5月创下的 出口记录，瓶片出口降至6个月低点。贸易数据对价格的影响很可能已经 反映到盘面上，化工链条估值近期略有压缩，原油反弹可能引发产业链的 补库需求，化工品价格近期将企稳。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差快速下行 高硫燃油：地缘扰动驱动燃油期价大涨 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/24 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang travelled to New York to attend the General Debate of the 80th Se ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings are as follows: - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [10] - **PX**: Oscillating weakly [12] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly [13] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly [14] - **Styrene**: Oscillating weakly [17] - **MEG**: Oscillating weakly [19] - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating weakly [22] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating weakly [23] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation [26] - **Urea**: Oscillation [27] - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillation [30] - **PP**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PL**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PVC**: Partial oscillation [35] - **Caustic Soda**: Medium - long - term partial oscillation [36] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil futures continued to decline on Monday. If the EU introduces strong sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate. Chemical prices also continued to fall, but some varieties with good fundamentals showed positive arbitrage signs. The energy and chemical industry as a whole will continue the pattern of oscillating consolidation [1][2][3]. - For each specific product, the prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost support, showing different trends of oscillation, weakening, or strengthening [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, the weak - reality pattern is reflected in inventory year - on - year. The resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq may improve the implementation rate of Iraq's production increase. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with risks mainly concentrated in the geopolitical area [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price oscillates below 3,500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to continue increasing production and geopolitical escalation offset the decline in demand. The pricing power of asphalt futures may return to Shandong. The current market expects high - start and low - inventory to digest production pressure, but the invisible inventory in South China is a concern [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price oscillates weakly. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to increase production, geopolitical escalation, and a significant increase in Russia's fuel oil exports in early September have led to a weakening of the fuel oil cracking spread. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It may face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand and maintain low - valuation operation [10]. - **PX**: Supply - demand margin weakens, cost has no obvious support, and processing fees are under pressure. Oil prices are weak, and the chemical market sentiment is poor. The delay of some PX device maintenance and the increase in downstream PTA device maintenance drag down PX demand to some extent [12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and there is no continuous positive in supply - demand. Cost performance is poor, and the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The downstream demand is affected by the National Day holiday, and there is no obvious positive support [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The future outlook is still pessimistic, and the price returns to decline. Although there was a short - term boost at the beginning of the week, with the implementation of interest - rate cut benefits and the impact of news such as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the price declined. Before the end of the year, it is difficult to destock, especially with high import pressure in October [14]. - **Styrene**: There is insufficient fundamental positive, and the price resumes decline. The contradiction lies in the difficulty of destocking high inventories in the upstream and downstream. Although there is a destocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory accumulation cycle from November to December [17]. - **MEG**: Before the festival, the port shipment performance is poor, and the port inventory accumulates. Cost support is not obvious, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in the long - term [18]. - **Short Fiber**: Inventory is slightly destocked, and processing fees are firm. The support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price mainly follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The processing fees have strengthened bottom support during the peak season [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: Low prices stimulate some factories to purchase, and processing fees operate stably. The cost support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price oscillates and declines. However, due to its own limited driving force, the decline is limited, and processing fees expand passively [23]. - **Methanol**: There is still a certain stocking demand before the festival, and the methanol futures price oscillates and declines. The price of upstream manufacturers has decreased, but the low inventory level in the inland area and the stocking demand before the National Day support the market. There is a contradiction between high inventory pressure in the port in the near - term and the expected overseas shutdown in the far - term [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of looseness is difficult to change, and the futures price is continuously under pressure along the cost line. On September 22, the supply - side daily output and operating rate continued to increase, while the demand - side support was insufficient, and the export expectation was weakening [27]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream transactions still increase in volume, and the price oscillates and declines. Affected by factors such as oil price oscillation, macro - atmosphere, and supply - demand situation, although the downstream demand may have certain support before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the overall fundamental situation is still under pressure [30]. - **PP**: It oscillates and declines, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. Affected by oil price and macro - factors, it has reached near the low point in June, and there is still some support. Although there is some downstream restocking demand before the festival, the supply - side pressure still exists [31]. - **PL**: It follows PP to fluctuate and oscillates and declines in the short - term. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the willingness to further reduce prices is limited. The PP - PL spread oscillates around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally [32]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment declines, and it should be treated with caution and weakly. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. The production may decline, the downstream demand improves, and the signing of orders improves [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Strong expectation but weak reality, and the futures price is partial to oscillation. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the fundamental situation of caustic soda still has pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The inventory receipt volume of Weiqiao is high, and the purchase price has been lowered. However, the expected stocking of alumina for caustic soda in 2026Q1 is strong [36]. 3.2 Product Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: It shows the cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - product spreads of various products, reflecting the price relationships and changes among different products and different contract periods [38][39][40]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although specific data are not detailed in the summary part, it is expected to further analyze the basis and spread of various chemical products to provide references for market participants [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) show different trends of increase and decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the commodity market on September 22, 2025 [281][283].

政策扰动市场情绪，板块品种价格仍有 ⽀撑 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-23 昨⽇《钢铁⾏业稳增⻓⼯作⽅案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调" ⾏业增加值年均增⻓4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现⾏的⾏业 增速以及市场预期⼀致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期 价受此影响⼩幅回调，夜盘时段围绕⽇盘低点震荡运⾏。但结合产业 链⾃⾝，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议 仍有预期，因此板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 昨日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调"行 业增加值年均增长4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现行的行业增速 以及市场预期一致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期价受 此影响小幅回调，夜盘时段围绕日盘低点震荡运行。但结合产业链自 身，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议仍有 预期，因此板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿发运回落、但仍维持高位水平，上周到港量因 前期台风扰动节奏而大幅增加，但当前我国海域再现台风影响，因此 预计到港量仍有扰动。反观铁矿需求保持高位水平，国 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-23 重点资讯： 1）美国两党的短期支出议案均未能在参议院闯关成功，让国会避免 政府关门的努力陷入僵局。现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月 底。美国总统特朗普发出警告，称联邦政府可能因为两党之间的僵局 而关门。 2）美国总统特朗普签署行政令，大幅改革H-1B签证项目，要求申请 人缴纳10万美元费用，否则不得入境。这一新规于美东时间9月21日 凌晨00:01生效。律师建议已经拿到H-1B签证的申请者在9月21日之前 回到美国，在美国境内的H-1B签证持有者近期尽量不要随便进出美 国。 特朗普宣布推出名为"特朗普金卡"的签证计划，向全球富人 出售美国居住权，个人申请者最高支付500万美元，可最长停留美国 270天，无需为美国境外收入纳税，企业可无限量为员工个人办理金 卡。特朗普表示，科技高管们会对金卡项目"非常满意"，因为这将 允许他们引入更多员工。美国商务部长卢特尼克预计，该签证计划将 为美国政府筹集超过1000亿美元。 3）特朗普周二将与阿拉伯国家领导人会晤，商讨加沙停火。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属再度冲高，上周靴子落地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the strong style is narrowing towards technology - growth stocks. The market should actively adhere to the growth style and allocate long positions in IM [1][8]. - For stock index options, a double - buying strategy should be deployed before the holiday. If there are equity holdings, the options still maintain a defensive mindset, and the double - selling strategy is not recommended before the holiday [2][8]. - Regarding treasury bond futures, in the short term, monetary policy may still mainly use structural tools, and the bond market remains cautious [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, and the market volume shrank to 2.14 trillion yuan. Funds concentrated on the technology sector. The STAR 50 continued to outperform, driven by three factors: positive technology events, the continuous outperformance of heavy - weight stocks in the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index, and increased enthusiasm for theme - based industry fund allocations [1][8]. - **Suggestions**: Allocate long positions in IM [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The equity market oscillated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly by 0.22%. The option market turnover dropped significantly below 10 billion yuan, and the PCR of open interest showed mixed trends. Some options' implied volatility increased instead of decreasing [2][8]. - **Suggestions**: Adopt a hedging and defensive strategy. A double - buying strategy may be used before the holiday, and the double - selling strategy is not recommended [2][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.20%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.22% respectively. The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations and market expectations for loose monetary policy boosted bullish sentiment [3][9]. - **Suggestions**: Adopt a cautious approach for trend strategies; pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies; appropriately focus on basis widening for basis strategies; expect the yield curve to remain steep [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists economic data release schedules from September 22 to 25, 2025, including China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's September manufacturing PMI flash estimate, the US August new home sales annualized total, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Overseas macro news: On September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with President Trump, reaching important consensus, which laid a strategic foundation for the stable development of China - US relations [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers outlooks for individual metals: - Copper: Expected to be in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish, suggesting short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines [6][7][8] - Aluminum: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] - Zinc: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] - Lead: Expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: Expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, with a wait - and - see approach in the medium - to long - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: Expected to be in a volatile state [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall for non - ferrous metals: Before the National Day holiday, downstream restocking is expected, and non - ferrous metals may stabilize and rebound. In the short - to medium - term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1] - For individual metals: - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions, along with the approaching peak demand season, support copper prices. However, factors such as unexpected tariff policies and weak domestic demand recovery pose risks [5][6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation remains weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. Prices are under pressure until factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions occur [6][7][8] - Aluminum: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Zinc: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Lead: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp; the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended operations; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year; on September 22, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper and copper inventory changed [5] - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions support copper prices. The approaching peak demand season increases downstream restocking willingness. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may continue to be strong [6] - Outlook: Copper may show a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6] 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On September 22, the spot price of alumina in different regions changed; an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased; the alumina warehouse receipt increased [6][7] - Logic: The fundamentals remain weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. The price is under pressure until there are factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions [6][7][8] - Outlook: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish. Consider short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On September 22, the price of SMM AOO aluminum, aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipt changed; in August, China's aluminum and its products exports decreased year - on - year; the Fed cut interest rates; an Indonesian aluminum smelter plans to be put into production [9] - Logic: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On September 22, the price of Baotai ADC12, the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and SMM AOO aluminum, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt changed; in August, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year; the EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports [10][11] - Logic: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On September 22, the spot price of zinc in different regions and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory changed; CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement in the fourth quarter of 2025 [12] - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On September 22, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the price difference between primary and secondary lead, the price of SMM1 lead ingot, and lead ingot inventory changed; downstream lead - acid battery enterprises are restocking before the National Day [13][14] - Logic: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Outlook: Moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On September 22, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt decreased; the price of high - nickel pig iron is supported by cost and the peak season, but the demand is weak; some nickel - related events such as corporate acquisitions and land seizures occurred [16][17] - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Outlook: Wide - range volatile in the short - term, wait - and - see in the medium - to long - term [17][18] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased; the spot price difference between Foshan Hongwang 304 and the stainless steel main contract, and the transaction prices of high - nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia were reported [19][22] - Logic: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term [19][22] 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On September 22, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin positions decreased, and the spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [23] - Logic: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] - Outlook: Volatile [23] 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals for monitoring (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][26][40] 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not detailed - Special Index: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.44% to 2510.95, the industrial products index decreased by 0.34% to 2246.26 [151] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on September 22 was 2385.20, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.33% [153]