1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran peace talks and energy price fluctuations, while being vigilant about the uncertainty brought by the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts [1] - Gold is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Unless the US - Iran negotiations make substantial breakthroughs and drive oil prices to decline continuously, the upward space of gold prices may be limited. In the long - term, the core logic of gold's rise remains unchanged [1][2] - Silver is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, silver's elasticity may be limited and its trend will generally follow gold; if the economy returns to the recovery path, the elasticity of silver's industrial product attributes is expected to be gradually released, promoting its price to strengthen further [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The market sentiment has been repaired, and precious metals have fluctuated upward, mainly boosted by the US releasing a peace - talk signal. The easing signal of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to a decline in oil prices, partially alleviating market concerns about inflation and high interest rates, and supporting the strengthening of gold and silver prices [1] Gold Analysis - Short - term: Gold prices at home and abroad fluctuated upward. COMEX gold rose by more than 3% and SHFE gold rose by nearly 2%. The optimistic sentiment of a possible cease - fire in the Middle East boosted the price. However, Iran made a "negative response" to the US proposal [1] - Long - term: The core logic of gold's rise remains unchanged [2] Silver Analysis - Short - term: The domestic silver price rebounded following the foreign market. COMEX silver rose by more than 4% and SHFE silver rose by nearly 3%. The signal of the US's intention to cease fire for a month boosted the market sentiment. The decline in oil prices alleviated inflation concerns, and the marginal improvement of the US economic development path was beneficial to the industrial product elasticity of silver. However, the short - term spot drive of silver itself was still weak [2] - Long - term: The performance of silver depends on the economic cycle. If it shifts to stagflation, silver follows gold; if the economy recovers, silver's industrial product attributes will drive its price up [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index was 2505.87, a decrease of 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2799.49, an increase of 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, a decrease of 1.12% [44] - The precious metals index on March 25, 2026, was 3770.68, with a daily increase of 2.91%, a 5 - day decrease of 6.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 15.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.40% [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The market may still be in a wide - range volatile state. If the geopolitical impact does not significantly worsen and the market cargo volume weakens again in April, leading to pressure on the loading rate, the European line center may still have the risk of weakening and moving downward in a volatile manner. Geopolitical, passage, and spot transportation aspects may still exert certain pressure on the market. The current trading volume and open interest of the European line are relatively low, and the liquidity activity is not high. It is recommended that investors manage their positions and risks well [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price Futures Contract Data - EC2604: closed at 1803, settlement price 1786.4, down 6.9098%, trading volume 18169, open interest 12060 [9] - EC2605: closed at 2086, settlement price 2069.1, down 8.2189%, trading volume 1146, open interest 1414 [9] - EC2606: closed at 2364.1, settlement price 2318.6, down 8.7596%, trading volume 12555, open interest 12845 [9] - EC2607: closed at 2475.2, settlement price 2441.4, down 6.3524%, trading volume 421, open interest 891 [9] - EC2608: closed at 2354.2, settlement price 2288.6, down 7.8255%, trading volume 1120, open interest 2720 [9] - EC2609: closed at 1658.1, settlement price 1666.1, down 6.2903%, trading volume 84, open interest 498 [9] - EC2610: closed at 1716.7, settlement price 1532.3, down 5.0678%, trading volume 2222, open interest 7330 [9] - EC2612: closed at 1716.7, settlement price 1713, down 4.8756%, trading volume 143, open interest 503 [9] Spot Freight Data - Comprehensive index: SCFI 1707 [10] - Nordic route: SCFI 1636, SCFIS 1693.26 (+8.8%) [10] - Mediterranean route: SCFI 2784 [10] - US West route: SCFI 2054, SCFIS 1024.11 (-7.7%) [10] - US East route: SCFI 2922 [10] Geopolitical and Strait Passage - As of March 24, the ship traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz was 3 [3] - Iran stated in a letter to members of the International Maritime Organization that "non - hostile ships" can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordinating with the Iranian authorities, excluding ships related to the US and Israel [3] - Trump proposed 15 points for US - Iran negotiations and may intend to cease fire for one month [2][3] Shipping Fundamentals - Since March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed bookings to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. CMA CGM has previously resumed bookings on the Middle East route, with transshipment required at ports outside the Strait of Hormuz [3] Spot Quotes - No information provided Seasonal Trend of European Line Spot Freight - No information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rebound, but the divergence between bulls and bears intensified. The current market is a restorative rebound under the easing of geopolitical disturbances rather than a consistent reversal. It is advisable to observe changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis to judge the sustainability of the rebound [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The implied volatility continued to decline, and the term structure improved. Before a clear stabilization, the options market shows "short - term game of rebound exit" and "medium - term put - selling strategy waiting", suggesting a cautious view on the future market [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market oscillated narrowly, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiations, short - term inflation concerns still exist, and the bond market lacks upward momentum [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Yesterday, the stock market rebounded, with small - cap and growth styles being stronger. The market was boosted by peace - talk news, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, textiles, and communications led the rise. The current market is a restorative rebound, not a reversal. The reasons are tight trading volume, reduced margin trading balance, deepening basis, and uncertain geopolitical progress. The operation suggestion is to lightly position in IM after the right - side confirmation of capital indicators [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: On Wednesday, the equity market continued to rebound, and the total trading volume of financial options declined. The market risk - aversion sentiment eased, and the implied volatility of options decreased. The term structure returned to a state of lower near - term and higher far - term. Before clear stabilization, a defensive option - buying strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of covered call strategy after the signal is clearer [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose slightly. The central bank's reverse repurchase and MLF increased the net investment, and the capital market remained stable. Affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation, the market risk preference improved, but due to the uncertainty of the negotiation, the bond market oscillated narrowly. The short - end is supported by loose capital, while the long - end may oscillate. Different strategies are provided for trend, hedging, basis, and curve [3][8]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is uncertain, causing the energy and chemical market to continue to fluctuate. The core factor affecting the current oil price is the geopolitical situation, and the market is in a state of expectation swing. The oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the chemical products are treated with a fluctuating mindset [1][2]. - The supply and demand of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors, such as geopolitical situation, production reduction, and cost pressure. Most products are expected to show a fluctuating trend in the short - term, and the market is waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical prospects in the Middle East are still highly uncertain. The crude oil market currently faces a large supply gap. The potential release volume of floating storage in Iran and Russia is relatively limited, and the production reduction pressure of Persian Gulf countries remains. The expected deviation in the future mainly comes from factors such as the progress of the US - Iran conflict, tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference starts to repair upwards. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is the core factor affecting the current oil price. The market is worried about the restart of the US - Iran negotiation, and the oil price drops. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference rebounds but is still at a low level. The profit of asphalt refineries deteriorates and then repairs upwards. The reduction of asphalt production by refineries may drive the price difference to rise. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, and the inventory pressure is still large. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [6]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil partially declines. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is the core driver of the current oil price. The market is worried about the restart of the US - Iran negotiation, and the oil price drop drives the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price down. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. In the long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics, which is a long - term negative factor. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [6]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the high - level decline of crude oil. The current market focuses on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes. During the rise of oil prices, its valuation has been significantly repaired. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [8]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 25, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated weakly. The price in the inland market回调, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly. The inventory of production enterprises and ports decreased. The overseas situation is uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [27]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Urea oscillates and consolidates under the game of long and short positions. - **Main Logic**: On March 25, 2026, urea oscillated and consolidated. The supply is sufficient, and the demand side has a slight loosening of agricultural demand and a moderate recovery of industrial demand. The spot is restricted by policy price limits and commercial storage release. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [28]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continuously disturbs the market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The high - level callback of international oil prices weakens the support for chemical products. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will drop to a low level in early April. The market will continue to oscillate widely, and the reduction of polyester factories' production weakens the upstream demand. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The expectation of the Strait's restart strengthens, and the cost pressure on downstream polyester factories is still significant. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the US - Iran war and the restart of the Strait suddenly increases, causing a certain callback in international oil prices. The supply of PX in the future is affected by the reduction of domestic and overseas PX device loads. The high price of PX/PTA forces the polyester production reduction expectation to continue to increase, and the demand - side negative feedback suppresses the PX price and efficiency. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The production reduction of filament is implemented and the amplitude is expanded, weakening the demand support for the upstream. - **Main Logic**: The high - level decline of international oil prices and the callback of PX prices. Although the cost decline drives the downstream polyester sales volume to increase, the current high cost still puts great pressure on polyester factories. The spot inventory is still relatively loose, and the basis has not strengthened significantly. The production reduction of filament factories weakens the upstream demand and increases the difficulty of inventory removal. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: After the phased centralized procurement, the downstream will observe again. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the market sentiment strongly games around the geopolitical situation. The polyester raw material price fluctuates in line with the cost. The supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and most are waiting and seeing. After the phased centralized procurement, the downstream will observe again. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [22]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost volatility intensifies, and the bottle chip follows passively. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has a high - level callback, and the polyester bottle chip follows the upstream raw materials to rise and then fall. The overall absolute price change is limited, and the short - term price trend is expected to still follow the upstream cost fluctuation. The current supply and demand of polyester bottle chips are tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [24]. 3.1.12 Styrene - **View**: Geopolitics brings positive effects on the supply and demand of styrene, and styrene runs strongly with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: The styrene price is still dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeated disturbances. On the supply side, some devices have new product outputs, and attention should be paid to whether there are new device overhauls or load reductions. On the demand side, the overall downstream profit declines, and the support for the price weakens. There is an expected increase in exports. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [17]. 3.1.13 PE - **View**: The overhaul continues to increase, and PE should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: On March 25, the plastic main contract declined, and the market game was intense. The expectation of the possible cooling of the US - Iran situation led to the decline of oil prices. The geopolitical prospects are still highly uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy and chemical sentiment is still repeated in the short - term, and the refinery start - up decline still supports the near - month contract. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [32]. 3.1.14 PP - **View**: The disturbance of the expectation of geopolitical relaxation confronts the increase of overhauls, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On March 25, the PP main contract declined. The expectation of the possible cooling of the US - Iran situation led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The geopolitical prospects are still highly uncertain. The direct impact on the import side is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH in the PP refinery are still under pressure, and the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired. The overall start - up is at a low level, and the PP现货 trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [33]. 3.1.15 PL - **View**: Geopolitical expectations disturb, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On March 25, the PL main contract declined. Individual enterprises released propylene, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment of industry players. The enterprise offers were mainly stable, and some prices continued to decline, dragging down the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit was compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance was limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [34]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: It is mainly affected by sentiment, and PVC should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the market is gaming the US - Iran peace negotiation, and the commodity sentiment cools down. At the micro - level, both domestic and overseas production has been reduced, and the PVC inventory has been removed. The overall supply shows a downward trend, the downstream start - up has improved month - on - month, the enthusiasm for chasing up is not high, the overseas price has soared, and the foreign merchants are waiting and seeing. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and the enterprise is at a loss. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [35]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: The geopolitical sentiment declines, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the market is gaming the US - Iran peace negotiation, and the commodity sentiment cools down. At the micro - level, both domestic and overseas production has been reduced, the caustic soda export has improved, and the inventory is expected to be removed. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, the production reduction has been realized, the demand for caustic soda is marginally boosted, the inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong is removed, the non - aluminum start - up season is not in full swing, the enthusiasm for chasing up 32% caustic soda is average, the export orders continue, and the price of 50% caustic soda is raised. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text, only the variety names are listed.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - end disturbances are frequent, and the high - level prices on the futures market are loosening. The prices of coking coal and coke have fallen following the high - level decline of crude oil due to repeated geopolitical conflicts. The futures market of iron ore has weakened as the market expects the liquidity restrictions on some iron ore spot varieties to loosen. The alloy prices have first declined and then risen. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. The futures market is under pressure due to the loosening cost support. The cost - end disturbances may recur, and it is necessary to continue to monitor the geopolitical and iron ore supply - end disturbances [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel is generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, so it is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term [3] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel is generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance. It is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term. The actual recovery progress of terminal demand needs to be focused on in the future [11] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal may be faster. The price of the spot cost - end continues to rise, and the expectation of the spot price increase of coke is strong. The futures market is expected to still follow the coking coal at the cost - end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of trading in the coking coal futures market. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures market [4] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of trading in the coking coal futures market. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures market [14] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of pushing up the import cost of manganese ore and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission of manganese silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk for the valuation level above the cost on the futures market [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties in the future is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, gradually shifting the supply - demand relationship to a loose state. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk when the valuation on the futures market is significantly higher than the cost [4] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply of glass still has disturbance expectations, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot continue to improve, the high inventory will always suppress the price [4] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [4] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is loosening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot trading volume has weakened. After the weakening of the impact of environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal output has rebounded rapidly, and the electric furnace output has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. The demand for steel products has shown resilience, and the inventory has started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] - **Iron Ore**: The market expects the liquidity restrictions on some spot varieties to loosen, and the futures market has weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have recovered month - on - month. The rhythm of shipments and arrivals is still fluctuating. The demand side has some room for recovery, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some varieties support the futures and spot prices, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the upside valuation, and it is expected to oscillate [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and the spot market operates oscillatory. The supply is generally stable, the short - process demand has recovered rapidly, but the long - process demand has recovered slowly. The inventory is still at a relatively low level. It is expected to operate oscillatory in the short term, and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand needs to be focused on [11] - **Coke**: The cost continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has good support, and the upstream inventory has continued to decline slightly. The futures market is expected to follow the coking coal at the cost - end [13] - **Coking Coal**: The auction price continues to rise, and the futures market oscillates at a high level. The domestic supply has room for a small increase, the import supply pressure is high, the demand has increased, and the upstream inventory has continued to decline slightly. Under the energy substitution logic, the futures market is strong, and the spot price continues to rise. There is callback pressure if the geopolitical conflict eases [14] - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory is high, and the price operates oscillatory. The supply may decline in the long term, the downstream demand has not recovered, the middle - and downstream inventories are high, and the high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to oscillate, and if the production and sales cannot improve, the price will be under pressure [15] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory in the delivery warehouse has accumulated, and the price operates oscillatory. The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, the demand is relatively stable, the overall supply - demand is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [15][18] - **Manganese Silicon**: It follows the energy to bottom out and rebound, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the geopolitical situation. The cost is expected to rise, the demand is expected to pick up, the supply may increase, the current supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a callback risk for the valuation above the cost in the medium - to - long term [17][19] - **Silicon Iron**: The energy valuation bottoms out and rebounds, and the high - level support on the futures market is insufficient. The cost support is strong, the demand is expected to improve, the supply may increase, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and there is a callback risk for the valuation above the cost in the medium - to - long term [20] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2505.87, down 0.37%; the commodity 20 index is 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index is 2541.47, down 1.12% [105] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On March 25, 2026, the daily decline was 0.75%, the increase in the past 5 days was 1.99%, the increase in the past month was 6.85%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 3.34% [107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Platinum price is expected to fluctuate due to the uncertain development of the US - Iran situation. Trump's statements have affected market expectations, and while the long - term weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for platinum valuation, the current geopolitical conflict still significantly influences the market and platinum prices [2]. - Palladium price is also expected to oscillate. Supply - side uncertainties continue with potential tariffs and sanctions, and demand faces structural pressure. It mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - On March 25, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.63% to 505.85 yuan/gram [1]. - Trump's statements have led to a change in market expectations for the US - Iran situation, with a decline in oil prices and an improvement in interest - rate cut expectations, causing the platinum price to rise. However, Iran's attitude remains unchanged, and Trump's statements may be inconsistent, leading to short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still impacts the market and platinum price [2]. Palladium - On March 25, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.07% to 368.55 yuan/gram [1]. - Supply - side uncertainties persist as the US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. Demand for palladium faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, and in the short term, supply disruptions remain, with the price mainly following the overall precious metal sector [3]. Commodity Index - On March 25, 2026, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2505.87, down 0.37%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, down 1.12% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On March 25, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2594.45, with a daily increase of 0.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.84%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.41% [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, equity index futures rose while most commodities dropped, with energy leading the decline and precious metals leading the increase [9][11]. - The main contracts of silicon metal, poly - silicon, and lithium carbonate all rose on March 25, with price trends affected by supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors [17][24][30]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 25, equity index futures rose (IC rose 2.2%, IM rose 1.7%), and most commodities dropped. Energy led the drop and precious metals led the raise. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver (up 7.0% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), platinum (up 5.6% with a 0.2% month - on - month increase in open interest), and palladium (up 5.1% with a 4.2% month - on - month increase in open interest). The top three decliners were LPG (down 8.0% with a 1.6% month - on - month increase in open interest), fuel oil (down 6.5% with a 6.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 6.0% with a 21.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On March 25, the main contract of silicon metal rose 1.7% to 8770 yuan/ton (GFEX). It remains in an oversupplied condition. Coal price increases offer cost support, and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate sideways. Geopolitical conflicts affect energy and coal prices, providing cost support. Northwest supply is stable, and Southwest supply is low in the dry season. Demand from polysilicon, organosilicon, and aluminum alloy is weak [17][18][19]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On March 25, the main poly - silicon futures contract rose 2.8% to 36750 yuan/ton (GFEX). Weak demand drags down prices, but supply is at a low level. In the medium to long term, prices may fluctuate widely as supply contracts and leading enterprises integrate [24][25][26]. 1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - On March 25, the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.3% to 159120 yuan/ton (GFEX). Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply disruptions persist, demand is divergent, and the market is pricing in the expectation of an extended ore export ban in Zimbabwe [30][31][32]. 2. Important News 2.1 Macro News - Wang Yi held a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on March 24. Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all except warring countries [38]. - The US government submitted a 15 - point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, and is considering a one - month ceasefire for further negotiations [38]. - Iran refused to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, accusing them of "bad faith" [38]. - The Israeli military bombed two naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran on March 25 [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a co - existence of weak current reality and strong future expectations, with different trends for various products. For example, double - meal markets are weak in the near term and strong in the long term; vegetable oils are回调 due to geopolitical easing expectations; and the corn market experiences a slight decline due to increased alternatives [1][6]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy announcements, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different influencing factors and future trends, and investors need to pay attention to various risk factors and market changes [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Vegetable oils are回调 again under the expectation of geopolitical easing. In the future, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - buying strategy [5]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, there are signs of further easing in the US - Israel - Iran war, with a significant drop in crude oil and an expected relief of inflation pressure, causing vegetable oils to follow the decline. In the soybean sector, the external market of US soybeans and US soybean oil is weakly fluctuating, and the "buy oil and sell meal" arbitrage is active. Domestically, the shutdown of oil - pressing plants has led to a decline in soybean oil inventory, but demand is weak, and the basis is relatively stable. For palm oil, the production reduction and significant increase in export volume in the first half of March in Malaysia have boosted market sentiment, but high prices and geopolitical issues may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the external market follows the trends of crude oil and US soybeans, and the domestic market expects an increase in rapeseed supply [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: There is a co - existence of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Rapeseed meal may be weaker than soybean meal [1][6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the news is chaotic, and crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. Brazil's soybean harvesting progress is slower than the same period last year but basically in line with the five - year average. China's difficulties in obtaining phytosanitary certificates and increased shipping risks in the Persian Gulf have led to lower - than - expected soybean exports from Brazil in March. The strong US soybean export data restricts the decline of the futures price, and the market is waiting for the details of the US biodiesel policy. Domestically, due to the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions are shifting positions to the 2609 contract. The spot price of oil mills has decreased with the market, and the near - month basis is stable with a slight increase in some areas. The downward space of soybean meal is limited. For rapeseed meal, aquaculture farms have established a small number of long - term basis positions, and the granulated rapeseed meal in bonded warehouses has mostly been sold but is waiting for terminal pick - up [1][6]. 3.3 Corn - **View**: Corn prices experience a slight decline due to increased alternatives. In the short term, it may experience a phased decline, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish [6][7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast is stable, while in North China, the arrival of grain is high, and the price is slightly lower. Northern ports have raised prices to attract grain, and the demand in the southern ports is limited. The supply pressure is temporarily not large, and the demand at the feed and deep - processing ends is improving. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has increased. The increase in alternative supply such as wheat also affects the corn market [7]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. In the short and medium term, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and in the long term, the pig price may bottom out and rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply has increased, and the demand is weak. In the medium term, the pressure of pig slaughter is high. In the long term, although the sow inventory has decreased, the sow productivity has increased. The current process of reducing production capacity is not smooth, and the consumption is in the off - season [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The risk preference has recovered, and the market continues to rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. - **Logic**: As the geopolitical conflict has not further escalated, the market risk preference has continued to recover, and the rubber price has continued to rebound. Fundamentally, the Yunnan rubber - producing area has started tapping, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East have been affected, which is negative for the price. The market is mainly affected by the macro - logic, and there are few new marginal positive factors [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market has reached a new high since listing. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [12]. - **Logic**: The tight supply logic of butadiene has been continuously strengthened. Due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the arrival rhythm of key raw materials, the supply of butadiene has been passively reduced. Even if the price of butadiene is higher than that of downstream products, as long as the geopolitical situation remains tense, the price is still likely to rise [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price rebounds within the range. In the long - term, it is expected to be bullish, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the processing and inspection of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season are basically completed, and the inventory - building period has ended, entering the de - stocking period. The export data of textiles and clothing from January to February are good, and the textile end has smooth sales and low inventory. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be bullish, but in the short - term, there is a lack of new positive factors, and the reduction of the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is uncertain [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price fluctuates with the oil price in the short term. In the long - term, there may be an upward driving force [14][15][16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, affected by the oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East conflict, the market is expected to fluctuate. Although the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season, if the conflict drives the oil price to remain high, it may affect the production in Brazil's new sugar - crushing season and tighten the global sugar supply. The current domestic and foreign sugar prices are undervalued, and the sugar price is easily affected by funds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: After continuous rebounds, it is gradually approaching the pressure level. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Logic**: The pulp market has experienced a continuous rebound after a sharp decline. Fundamentally, the consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. In the future, the demand in the paper industry will decline seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp mills have high inventory and great sales pressure. However, the production of coniferous pulp in high - cost areas overseas is in a loss state, and the price has strong cost support at a low level [17]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: It fluctuates within a range. In the short - and medium - term, the market may first rise and then fall, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate within a wide range in the first half of 2026 [19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of double - glue paper have changed little recently. In the short - and medium - term, the first quarter to the second quarter is the traditional peak demand season. With the resumption of work of downstream printing factories and the upcoming autumn textbook publishing tenders, the price is supported. In the long - term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the price increase space is limited [19]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Logs fluctuate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but there is a risk of high - level fluctuation [20]. - **Logic**: Since March, the rise of log futures has been driven by cost increases and supply contractions. Geopolitical conflicts have led to high international oil prices, increasing shipping costs and import costs. New Zealand suppliers have actively reduced production and raised prices, and the supply is in short supply. However, the actual terminal demand recovery has not kept up, and there may be phased arrival pressure at the port [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals have stopped falling and are oscillating. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the information about the easing of the US - Iran military conflict has led to short - covering, which helps to improve the short - term panic sentiment. In the medium term, the risk of supply - side disturbances still supports prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The supply of copper ore is in a tight pattern, and the supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. Demand is entering the peak season, and copper supply - demand has improved marginally. Short - term copper prices are suppressed by high inventories and the rising US dollar index, and are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Alumina**: The macro - sentiment has magnified the market fluctuations. From the fundamental perspective, the operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the supply - demand balance has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus. The demand for alumina is under pressure, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. Recently, there have been disturbances at the ore end, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Aluminum**: The US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. The domestic supply capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the Middle East conflict, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is restricted. The demand shows a slight recovery, and the inventory has decreased. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices and subsidy reduction, and the inventory has decreased. In the short and medium terms, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Zinc**: The macro - pessimistic sentiment has eased. The supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the peak consumption season. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Lead**: The cost support is stable. The production of lead ingots is at a high level, the demand of lead - acid battery enterprises is gradually recovering, but the terminal demand is weak. The lead price is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Nickel**: The supply pressure has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian policy has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the implementation of Indonesian policies needs to be continuously monitored [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material price is stable, providing cost support. The production in March is expected to increase, and the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the Indonesian policies need to be continuously monitored [16]. - **Tin**: The supply problem has eased, but the supply in the main production areas is still fragile. The demand is expected to continue to grow. The tin price has bottom support but is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation in the short term, and is expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.2行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On March 25, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2505.87, down 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, down 1.12%. The non - ferrous metals index on March 25, 2026, was 2594.45, with a daily increase of 0.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.84%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.41% [145][147].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-25 市场情绪保持谨慎，贵⾦属窄幅震荡运 ⾏ 万得数据显⽰，⽇内贵⾦属窄幅震荡、反弹动能暂缓，主要受中东局势持 续紧张及美伊释放的谈判信号⽭盾影响，市场情绪趋于谨慎。据央视新闻 报道，伊朗否认与美国就结束战争进⾏谈判，与特朗普3⽉23⽇称可能很 快达成协议的⾔论相⽭盾；且伊朗新任最⾼领袖军事顾问同⽇强硬表态， 战争仍将持续⾄伊朗获得所遭受损失的"全额赔偿"。美国⽇内最新公布 的3⽉标普全球综合PMI初值51.4，低于前值51.9，显⽰商业活动扩张放 缓。预计短线贵⾦属延续超跌后修复性反弹，但投资者对中东局势仍持谨 慎态度，冲突延续、美元偏强和美债收益率上升或限制贵⾦属上⾏空间， 需密切跟踪地缘政治进展、警惕冲突反复⻛险。 黄金观点：短线延续急跌后修复性反弹，关注地缘进展、警惕冲突反 复风险 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内黄金窄幅震荡，COMEX 金价围绕 4400 美 元/盎司、SHFE 金价围绕980元/克运行，主要受中东局势紧张持续及 美伊释放的谈判信号矛盾影响。据央视新闻报道，伊朗否认与美国就 结束冲突开展谈判，其最高 ...